I wonder whether there is some drug skank whack-out lounging on his battered armchair in damp underpants casually flicking through the horde of two dozen stolen phones he bought from the back of a van for fifty quid who is about realise he's got the McSweeney files?
Given the fact that the supply of oil and gas to the whole world has already been significantly, negatively impacted by the Iran War - and that the threat is that this will worsen considerably, along with a related fertiliser supply problem - it seems surprising to me that global markets are not already in freefall. Why is this?
I don't think that it is based on a belief that Iran will be capitulate. So these are my two suggested answers.
1. The markets believe that some form of a workable, effective TACO will emerge before major and irrevocable economic harm becomes embedded.
2. Maybe the global economy can and will adapt to the crisis in energy and fertiliser supply? Is this possible? I don't know - but are we perhaps overplaying the apocalyptic economic consequences of the war?
People talk about how much oil passes through Hormuz.
Perhaps a better question is how much of the world's energy passes through Hormuz.
And also how much world energy supply in total would increase in response to higher oil prices.
I'm sure demand for expanding fracking in the US is off the charts, but it will take time to respond, and the size of the supply drop is so large that it will take time to replace.
If you consider the drop in gas supplies for instance, I have little idea how long it would take for a combination of solar panel production and increased gas output from other regions to close the gap, but I'm guessing at a minimum it would be years rather than months.
Though the energy gap itself reduces as higher prices reduces usage.
Plus new investment and technology can also reduced usage - my energy usage has certainly fallen from 2022 as I now have more energy efficient car and boiler.
Planned data centres might also be delayed given their high energy usage.
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
Given the fact that the supply of oil and gas to the whole world has already been significantly, negatively impacted by the Iran War - and that the threat is that this will worsen considerably, along with a related fertiliser supply problem - it seems surprising to me that global markets are not already in freefall. Why is this?
I don't think that it is based on a belief that Iran will be capitulate. So these are my two suggested answers.
1. The markets believe that some form of a workable, effective TACO will emerge before major and irrevocable economic harm becomes embedded.
2. Maybe the global economy can and will adapt to the crisis in energy and fertiliser supply? Is this possible? I don't know - but are we perhaps overplaying the apocalyptic economic consequences of the war?
Because the US and UK, for example, don't depend on products/goods from the Middle East. The price might go up a bit but it isn't that important.
I'm sorry, but that's simply not true.
Energy is deeply connected worldwide. The UK imported essentially no Russian gas, and was still hammered by the Ukraine war impact on gas exports. Australia, which is a net energy exporter, was hammered too.
Given the fact that the supply of oil and gas to the whole world has already been significantly, negatively impacted by the Iran War - and that the threat is that this will worsen considerably, along with a related fertiliser supply problem - it seems surprising to me that global markets are not already in freefall. Why is this?
I don't think that it is based on a belief that Iran will be capitulate. So these are my two suggested answers.
1. The markets believe that some form of a workable, effective TACO will emerge before major and irrevocable economic harm becomes embedded.
2. Maybe the global economy can and will adapt to the crisis in energy and fertiliser supply? Is this possible? I don't know - but are we perhaps overplaying the apocalyptic economic consequences of the war?
Because the US and UK, for example, don't depend on products/goods from the Middle East. The price might go up a bit but it isn't that important.
I'm sorry, but that's simply not true.
Energy is deeply connected worldwide. The UK imported essentially no Russian gas, and was still hammered by the Ukraine war impact on gas exports. Australia, which is a net energy exporter, was hammered too.
It's not true - but it's illustrative of the thinking which helped land us where we are now.
Putting aside the question of whether the U.S. should have joined Israel in attacking Iran, one of the hardest parts of watching setbacks with how the war is unfolding is that the entire US NatSec community has wargamed this scenario for decades. We knew the risks & enemy COAs. https://x.com/ColinPClarke/status/2038224971139330243
We know from the administration's own statements that they ignored all of this.
Russian Pro-Kremlin Blogger Warns of a “New February 1917”
A well-known Russian nationalist blogger and strong supporter of the war in Ukraine, Maxim Kalashnikov (also known as a “Z-patriot”), has issued a strong warning about growing instability inside Russia.
In his recent statements, Kalashnikov says Russia is on the edge of a new February 1917, referring to the revolution that overthrew the Russian Tsar and led to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
He warns that “something bad is happening” and that the country faces “dramatic events” that could threaten its current form.
He's not the only one saying this. Russia has had a series of economic and military setbacks in the past few days that are having a serious impact on the stability of the Putinist state
Things start to get bad this month, absent a resolution to the war.
The world is facing a 'ticking time bomb' from its supply of oil, according to a briefing note from JP Morgan. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. ⬇️ https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2038187681935401098
These “just leave everything in the bag” airport security scanners. What’s the point when they decide to pull almost every bag and the whole line comes to a halt as they can’t queue any more bags for the pointless swabbing thing?
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that if the United States carries out a ground operation in Iran, it would have to go alone, with Israeli forces not participating on the ground.
Trumpler literally has no clue what to do. Can’t lose. Iran are already mocking him. So must keep going. But how many times can he declare victory, and declare that he has utterly destroyed the Iranian armed forces?
No matter how many times they tell you Don’t Look Up, eventually you can’t help but notice that big fuck off asteroid in the sky heading for you…
Given the fact that the supply of oil and gas to the whole world has already been significantly, negatively impacted by the Iran War - and that the threat is that this will worsen considerably, along with a related fertiliser supply problem - it seems surprising to me that global markets are not already in freefall. Why is this?
I don't think that it is based on a belief that Iran will be capitulate. So these are my two suggested answers.
1. The markets believe that some form of a workable, effective TACO will emerge before major and irrevocable economic harm becomes embedded.
2. Maybe the global economy can and will adapt to the crisis in energy and fertiliser supply? Is this possible? I don't know - but are we perhaps overplaying the apocalyptic economic consequences of the war?
Because the US and UK, for example, don't depend on products/goods from the Middle East. The price might go up a bit but it isn't that important.
I'm sorry, but that's simply not true.
Energy is deeply connected worldwide. The UK imported essentially no Russian gas, and was still hammered by the Ukraine war impact on gas exports. Australia, which is a net energy exporter, was hammered too.
Don't forget the Ukraine war coincided with us coming out of Covid though, where pent-up demand was all peaking at the same time as supply was troughing. So it was a treble-whammy.
Russian Pro-Kremlin Blogger Warns of a “New February 1917”
A well-known Russian nationalist blogger and strong supporter of the war in Ukraine, Maxim Kalashnikov (also known as a “Z-patriot”), has issued a strong warning about growing instability inside Russia.
In his recent statements, Kalashnikov says Russia is on the edge of a new February 1917, referring to the revolution that overthrew the Russian Tsar and led to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
He warns that “something bad is happening” and that the country faces “dramatic events” that could threaten its current form.
He's not the only one saying this. Russia has had a series of economic and military setbacks in the past few days that are having a serious impact on the stability of the Putinist state
Something has shifted, in this conflict, since the start of the year.
People will endure almost any level of hardship, if they see a war as existential (eg Spain in 1808-14, Vietnam in 1946-75, the USSR in 1941-45). But, the breaking point comes much sooner, when they are fighting simply for the greater glory of the dictator. This an entirely pointless war of choice.
If the Iranian allegations are right, and America is planning a broad ground offensive on Iran, allying with the Kurds, then fucking hell. God help us all. It has OBVIOUS TOTAL CATASTROPHE tattooed on its forehead
They might just be able to prevail, for a while, but as the Iranian mullahs fall - if they fall - they will take out every single oil refinery they can hit, within 1500 miles, and every tanker and every port and every airport, and the whole of Dubai and God help us
It will quite shortly lead to fairly apocalyptic scenes, worldwide
It is not our choice, but so long as the Mullahs fall, I'd take that.
Better than surrendering to them and letting them survive, with control of the Strait.
What? You'd take total global catastrophe over allowing the Mullahs to gloat about some short term tactical win over the Great Satan?
You're a fucking idiot. If Iran destroys all the oil infra in the ME - which it looks very capable of doing - then the planetary economy will spiral into meltdown. We could see revolutions and famines, and economic Depressioin - not just recession - in the West
And all this will happen with no guarantee of "victory" in Iran, and even if there is a "victory" it could easily turn into Afghanistan, and America has to retreat 20 years later, by which time China will be utterly dominant and the dollar will be dethroned, with all that means for the USA and the West
I would love to see the Iranian regime eliminated. Sadly, it does not look do-able without using
1. nukes
or
2. nukes
Ground invasion won't do it. Nukes will be Armageddon
No, I am not an idiot, but I simply have different priorities to you.
TACOing out from here, allowing the Mullahs to survive and control the Strait and ultimately develop nukes would be its own kind of catastrophe.
Your scenario of the Mullahs falling but hitting refineries on the way out would be disruptive, but a disruption that could be rebuilt from and adapted from.
You are moving the goalposts by claiming the Mullahs can't fall without nukes. I don't agree, but anyway your claim I responded to was "as the Iranian mullahs fall - if they fall - they will take out every single oil refinery they can hit, within 1500 miles, and every tanker and every port and every airport, and the whole of Dubai and God help us".
If they've fallen, as per your hypothetical, you can't then say they won't fall. That's a different scenario.
Trumpler literally has no clue what to do. Can’t lose. Iran are already mocking him. So must keep going. But how many times can he declare victory, and declare that he has utterly destroyed the Iranian armed forces?
No matter how many times they tell you Don’t Look Up, eventually you can’t help but notice that big fuck off asteroid in the sky heading for you…
I am wondering if we are underpricing the risk of his being assassinated. If gas prices hit $7.00 his own bodyguards will be suffering.
Comments
Plus new investment and technology can also reduced usage - my energy usage has certainly fallen from 2022 as I now have more energy efficient car and boiler.
Planned data centres might also be delayed given their high energy usage.
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
Tricky question
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FXHYadhuw64
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VGyP3LH7T_A
🇸🇦🇰🇼🇧🇭 Various attacks reported across multiple Gulf countries.
Kuwait's major power generation and water desalination plant hit, now engulfed in flames.
Heavy explosions continue in Bahrain.
Sirens sounding across eastern Saudi Arabia.
Will update.
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/2038400961136267649?s=46
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/2038405199052837169
The whole Anglosphere is rotting from the inside out.
No it's not "the West". Europeans are still happy with their societies. It's Britain, Canada, and the U.S. (and maybe Australia).
The Anglosphere is the Sick Man of the World.
Energy is deeply connected worldwide. The UK imported essentially no Russian gas, and was still hammered by the Ukraine war impact on gas exports. Australia, which is a net energy exporter, was hammered too.
The United States Can’t Afford to Not Harden its Air Bases
https://warontherocks.com/2025/01/the-united-states-cant-afford-to-not-harden-its-air-bases/
https://x.com/ColinPClarke/status/2038224971139330243
We know from the administration's own statements that they ignored all of this.
The world is facing a 'ticking time bomb' from its supply of oil, according to a briefing note from JP Morgan. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. ⬇️
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2038187681935401098
Yet today's anti far-right Together Alliance rally had over 3x as many people in London was not even mentioned on BBC News
https://x.com/OperaSocialist/status/2038066908646269123
The IDF told Natanyahu last week that its forces and reservists are fucked, knackered depleted and running on fumes.
They called for law change to be able to recruit Jewish fundamentalist religious usually exempted from National Service.
He's cooked hs own goose!
No matter how many times they tell you Don’t Look Up, eventually you can’t help but notice that big fuck off asteroid in the sky heading for you…
People will endure almost any level of hardship, if they see a war as existential (eg Spain in 1808-14, Vietnam in 1946-75, the USSR in 1941-45). But, the breaking point comes much sooner, when they are fighting simply for the greater glory of the dictator. This an entirely pointless war of choice.
TACOing out from here, allowing the Mullahs to survive and control the Strait and ultimately develop nukes would be its own kind of catastrophe.
Your scenario of the Mullahs falling but hitting refineries on the way out would be disruptive, but a disruption that could be rebuilt from and adapted from.
You are moving the goalposts by claiming the Mullahs can't fall without nukes. I don't agree, but anyway your claim I responded to was "as the Iranian mullahs fall - if they fall - they will take out every single oil refinery they can hit, within 1500 miles, and every tanker and every port and every airport, and the whole of Dubai and God help us".
If they've fallen, as per your hypothetical, you can't then say they won't fall. That's a different scenario.