I wonder whether there is some drug skank whack-out lounging on his battered armchair in damp underpants casually flicking through the horde of two dozen stolen phones he bought from the back of a van for fifty quid who is about realise he's got the McSweeney files?
Given the fact that the supply of oil and gas to the whole world has already been significantly, negatively impacted by the Iran War - and that the threat is that this will worsen considerably, along with a related fertiliser supply problem - it seems surprising to me that global markets are not already in freefall. Why is this?
I don't think that it is based on a belief that Iran will be capitulate. So these are my two suggested answers.
1. The markets believe that some form of a workable, effective TACO will emerge before major and irrevocable economic harm becomes embedded.
2. Maybe the global economy can and will adapt to the crisis in energy and fertiliser supply? Is this possible? I don't know - but are we perhaps overplaying the apocalyptic economic consequences of the war?
People talk about how much oil passes through Hormuz.
Perhaps a better question is how much of the world's energy passes through Hormuz.
And also how much world energy supply in total would increase in response to higher oil prices.
I'm sure demand for expanding fracking in the US is off the charts, but it will take time to respond, and the size of the supply drop is so large that it will take time to replace.
If you consider the drop in gas supplies for instance, I have little idea how long it would take for a combination of solar panel production and increased gas output from other regions to close the gap, but I'm guessing at a minimum it would be years rather than months.
Though the energy gap itself reduces as higher prices reduces usage.
Plus new investment and technology can also reduced usage - my energy usage has certainly fallen from 2022 as I now have more energy efficient car and boiler.
Planned data centres might also be delayed given their high energy usage.
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
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Plus new investment and technology can also reduced usage - my energy usage has certainly fallen from 2022 as I now have more energy efficient car and boiler.
Planned data centres might also be delayed given their high energy usage.
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
Tricky question
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FXHYadhuw64
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VGyP3LH7T_A
🇸🇦🇰🇼🇧🇭 Various attacks reported across multiple Gulf countries.
Kuwait's major power generation and water desalination plant hit, now engulfed in flames.
Heavy explosions continue in Bahrain.
Sirens sounding across eastern Saudi Arabia.
Will update.
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/2038400961136267649?s=46
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/2038405199052837169
The whole Anglosphere is rotting from the inside out.
No it's not "the West". Europeans are still happy with their societies. It's Britain, Canada, and the U.S. (and maybe Australia).
The Anglosphere is the Sick Man of the World.