The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
Green support is rising under Zack Polanski. Who are its new voters?The party's new voter base is younger, student-y, more female, and less financially comfortable than their 2024 voters. They are the heirs of Corbynism: 39% of current supporters backed Labour in 20191/2
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Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
GRN 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.
Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTCFTfI_EOY
(That tie and collar !)
(Edit - I messed up the block quotes. Apols.)
For an equally bonkers economic offering. But, hey, that's kids/soft in the head Socialists for you...
Going after May is getting less and less likely every day.
Sounds like something out of Trump's America.
Labour aren't up across the board. Its a MoE movement with one pollster
One young girl's choice between a life of necrophilia or a life of bestiality.
Green voters do though have some similarity with Reform voters though in that they are less likely to be financially comfortable than average
We’ve got some Your Party-related candidates standing in the south of Camden, who might well get elected. I think Camden might go to No overall control, with a messy result divided between Lab, LD, Green, Con and ex-Your Party, in approximately that order.
If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do
https://x.com/jtalexander_/status/2036174803896508726
TL:DR the regime are lying about anything and everything to do with nuclear enrichment and missile capabilities, there’s a lot of backchanneling between the US and opposition groups in Iran, the IRGC have missed two pay cheques so far, the plan is to sideline the mullahs and effect regime change.
Starmers personal ratings, yep, maybe a war handling premium
Regardless of the Reform protestations we all know that if Farage was in No 10 the UK would be bombing Iran . Labours May election campaign should simply stick the grinning Farage next to Trump . You don’t even need any words !
Interested?
The voters haven't forgotten their pronouncements at the start of the war.
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia
And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?
I can't think of a previous war where there's been so much trade with the enemy.
From the Shannon to Siberia: How alumina from a Limerick refinery enters Russia’s weapons supply chain
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2026/03/24/from-the-shannon-to-siberia-how-alumina-from-a-limerick-refinery-enters-russias-weapons-supply-chain/
And then Reform - propped up by those who normally don't vote (but came out in force for the Brexit referendum). If the gloss is coming off Reform (and they seem to have lost maybe a fifth to a quarter of their vote since their highs), will they still enthuse thei rvoters to come out. Maybe for pot holes...
And that's just another form of nihlism- that of the powerful, rather than the powerless.
In the story, “AI” was used to create the list of books to ban.
Probably ChatGPT.
“AI” is actually just a really fancy way of guessing an output, based on the input. The guess is based on a vast amount of examples, which are used to create the model.
The vast majority of reports of “problematic books” and sites about problematic books, in English, are from Christian Right types on the US.
The training data for most AIs consists of scraping the internet.
So if you give a list of books to an “AI”, it will list as “problematic” those that offended MAGA type Americans.
A very good clue is that the list of banned stuff included Terry Pratchett and various Goth Vampire juvenile books - both are disliked, by such people, for writing about magic and monsters as if they aren’t super evil.
Badenoch had her chance but backed the wrong horse and Farage will always be seen as Trumps best buddy
Zack and Davey too but the market leader always benefits disproportionately and that can only be Starmer. Is it possible Labour could take the lead? I wouldn't rule it out. Trump is way beyond insane and Netanyahu is genuinely evil.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/03/this-is-the-only-time-ive-agreed-with-keir-starmer-in-a-while-my-latest-focus-groups/
Reform will probably turn out ok, it's a question of whether some core Lab/Con who stayed off in a huff last year turn out to 'stop Reform' now they've seen the 2025 carnage
Actually, I thought Ashcrofts focus groups were not far away from public opinion
The end of Ramadan has marked the start of political campaigning here in Newham.
My Ward, which is normally a political backwater, is being contested by Labour and the Newham Independents and we also have the Conservatives getting posters up at the local businesses (which they have done before).
The NIP were leafletting at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers at the local park - to be clear, outside the park, not in the masjid. Labour were out canvassing yesterday - when I did this kind of thing during the Wars of the Roses, I always canvassed outside in, starting with the weakest areas and moving to the strongest.
We will have full slates of NIP, Labour and Conservatives on the ballot at the very least.
To move on topic, I don't know what the Greens will do in this area - the NIP has the young Muslim pro-Palestine vote. MY information is the Greens will be working other Wards in Newham and won't do anything here so there may just be a single candidate.
An exciting few weeks ahead...
But what is most disturbing is that there's no justification for any of this, and we seem to be importing a completely alien version of far right cultural warfare.
In the US, school boards have hijacked legal procedures to impose censorship; here, they're just making it up wholesale.
..“The fact it’s gone through safeguarding means Emily will never be able to work in a school again,” Roche from the SLG said.
During their investigations, the school referred to their statutory obligations under the government’s Relationships and Sex Education (RSE) and Keeping Children Safe in Education guidance documents and said that materials in the school should align to them.
There is in fact no statutory guidance for school libraries because there is no obligation in law to have either a school library or a school librarian. Following Index’s investigation into school library censorship in 2024, many librarians and supporting bodies have spoken to Index about the confusion this causes, with support for librarians and their books left to the whim of their schools’ senior teams...
..When Emily first started at the school, books like Heartstopper and Black Flamingo were in the library, but there wasn’t much in the way of an LGBTQ+ offering. On an open evening, she put those two books on a table. She says a parent complained to the school that he “didn’t want his son exposed to gender bending”.
“The school defended me and defended those books and their right to be in there, and then two years later, completely forgot about it and changed their mind and said they’re inappropriate,” she said.
Index believes this story is of huge public interest. It is an unprecedented attack on the freedom to read and intellectual freedom, where important safeguarding measures have been misused to threaten and target a school librarian. This librarian is no longer able to do her job. Without this story being surfaced and changes being made, the risk is that it will happen again...
Bless.
Greens are on the up because we want to drive policy change on the climate. We have changed our approach to putting pressure on policy makers. The arrogance of those in power required a wake up. To be clear. Labour let us down.
I’m sometimes shocked by the PB ignorance on how shitty the future is going to be as we didn’t make serious changes twenty years ago.
https://www.nebriefing.org/
If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to
Only 2 and a half weeks till we get the candidate lists anyway
But one of the problems with the Academy model in general, and the Gove-inspired "Academies for all" model in particular, is that it requires more and wiser managers than most schools have available.
My guess is that some American-brained mad parent sent a scary letter to the school and they panicked because there was nobody more senior who could sit with them and say "don't worry, this is nonsense."
“You have done nothing wrong. But under section 13.1.3.4 (b) we have to fuck your entire life.”
Another major feature is that it provides an opportunity for people of certain mindsets. Those that love ever more rules. Perhaps most of all, those who love using ever extending rules to tell people what to do. And those that adore using rules to inflict pain.
C.S. Lewis was exactly on the button on this. See “That Hideous Strength”
Wouldn’t they be better trying to find someone who wasn’t in previous Tory cabinets which might offer a cleaner break .
The other alternative is to stick with Badenoch and hope Reform implode closer to the next GE .
The British media have entirely invented a stand-his-ground Keir Starmer that bears zero relation to reality. He tried to give Trump access to the bases, the cabinet blocked him, then he invented a legal fig leaf and access was granted. This stuff is professional malpractice.
https://www.himbonomics.com/p/-the-triumph-of-janet-
And in the short term, they were right. As for the long term...
39 in 2019. It was only Rishi who only won most voters over 65 and now Kemi has even lost them to Reform
The EU just concluded a trade deal with Australia where they’re allowed a total 16,830 tonnes of beef a year spread of course over 27 countries !
Farmers who voted for Brexit are to be blunt morons !
1300 is critical point for starmer
Tories
250 losses is dialled in
400 is critical point for Bedenoch
No if Kemi bombs in May it would have to be a heavyweight ex great office of state holder who replaces her or the party goes extinct within a decade unless we get PR. It would then.be Cleverly or bust, Cleverly the Michael Howard to Kemi's IDS
You are right they are a bunch of Charlatans.
And using a poll 2 years old says all about how you try desperately to justify your views
There's only a limited amount of land in this country with multiple requirements for it - grain, vegetables, livestock, energy production, housing, wildlife.
And for some reason people seem to think Starmer stood up the the two evil Satans.
On Question Time last week it was a given that plucky Starmer had single handedly held his ground against the two evil tyrants.
That's the way 24 hour news works and that's the narrative. I wondered whether there had been a press release that I'd missed
And for some reason people seem to think Starmer stood up the the two evil Satans.
On Question Time last week it was a given that plucky Starmer had single handedly held his ground against the two evil tyrants.
That's the way 24 hour news works and that's the narrative. I wondered whether there had been a press release that I'd missed
I think 500 losses would still be acceptable for Badenoch given the high starting point (2021) of the counties where elections have bewn twice postponed due to local Government reorganisation.
@HYUFD will tell you the Notional Vote Share (or NEV) is all that matters - perhaps.
And to date Badenoch has called them wrong. Oh wait, so has Cleverly. Starmer has looked shaky too, but so far he hasn't folded.
In those by elections Tories hold about half net which would see them lose about 550 in May but they'll want to do better (and should because London wont be as bad in all likelihood)
So id say benchmark for 'really bad night' in net losses versus the last year would be
Labour - 1400
Tory - 500
For 'bad night'
Labour - 1000
Tory - 400
For 'acceptable'
Labour -750
Tory - 325
'Good night' (relatively speaking)
Labour - 600
Tory - 175
In those by elections Tories hold about half net which would see them lose about 550 in May but they'll want to do better (and should because London wont be as bad in all likelihood)
So id say benchmark for 'really bad night' in net losses versus the last year would be
Labour - 1400
Tory - 500
For 'bad night'
Labour - 1000
Tory - 400
For 'acceptable'
Labour -750
Tory - 325
'Good night' (relatively speaking)
Labour - 600
Tory - 175
I agree. It just happens that the Great British Public only seems to take notice of headlines.
And for some reason people seem to think Starmer stood up to the the two evil Satans.
On 'Question Time' last week it was a given that plucky Starmer had single handedly held his ground against the two evil tyrants.
That's the way 24 hour news works and that's the narrative. I wondered whether there had been a press release that I'd missed
She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.
One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s
She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan
Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes
The more people see of her the less they like.
She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr#google_vignette
500 losses would be poor, no better than their by election defence rate
Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members
Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand
Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here
As the official opposition nearly 2 years after a GE and most unpopular Government since Thatcher a week fore the Falkland crisis
250 is dialled in 400 is calamity
Labour defending 2500 approx so 1250 half their seats is Starmer critical point
Many of these people should have stayed in their home town, learnt a skillset, got a job and then bought a house.
The Tories problem is not the 4th place and 17%. It's that as things stand, at the next GE the are not the right answer to any sensible question.
Do you want a Right of Centre radical government without years of government failure in your record? Vote Reform.
Do you want a One Nation Tory government? Not on the menu
Do you want to ensure Reform don't govern? Vote tactically for Lab/Greeen/LD/Nat
Do you want a Reformlite bunch of confused people who may or may not keep a Reform government in power but won't tell you which and if they did you would not believe them, and have zero chance of getting power themselves? Vote Tory.
The chances therefore of a Left Of Centre government 2029 are high. (Reform government low). It is hard to say much more than that. But I expect Labour to recover a lot of ground.
The thing that stands out to me about this is the stereo-typing of neurodiverse people having difficulty in human to human interaction, the librarian described as autistic is clearly far more empathetic and logical than the school leadership.
It seems to be those, ny implication neuro normal(?) median(?) who can't relate to and have difficulty interacting with others.
So why did so many PB Tories wave the pompoms and declare Osborne a genius when I pointed out the consequences would be disastrous.