Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
What impact do Britons think the US-Iran conflict will have in the longer term? (+ net positive impact / – net negative impact) (1/2)UK economy: -74Global economy: -74US reputation: -61Middle East stability: -59UK-US relations: -64Own household finances: -62yougov.com/en-gb/articl…
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Presumbly it can't go any lower with 39%...
https://news.sky.com/liveblog-webview/iran-war-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565
Nah. They will be priced at being JUST marginally cheaper than a human. So we will still be inundated with shite.
I've got all the windows wide open, my new Japanese coffee pot is looking adorable on my writing table. It's hard to be THAT depressed
Both GOP senators with the latter being Trump's pick for Homeland Security Sec, to replace the defenestrated Kirsti Noem. Don't think Senator Paul is likely to be voting to confirm Senator Mullin judging by this.
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/2034272524494610521
“You decided to transfer the blame. You told the media that I was a ‘freaking snake’ and that you completely understood why I had been assaulted,” Paul said, referring to when he was attacked by a neighbor in Kentucky in 2017, which resulted in Paul breaking several ribs and developing pneumonia.
Mullin: “What I was simply pointing out is some of the rules that still apply to this body, for instance, dueling with two consenting adults, is still there.”
Paul: “It’s been illegal for 170 years.”
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/2034278756022415506
Karoline Leavitt March 12: "TO BE CLEAR: No such threat from Iran to our homeland exists, and it never did."
Karoline Leavitt March 17: 'The claim that Iran poses no threat to the US is false.....Democrats and some in the liberal media have been repeating over and over."
https://x.com/covie_93/status/2034067405987582176
That is one of the loveliest corners of the UK. Some good pubs and restaurants, too
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15657319/JD-Vance-center-stunning-Iran-war-rupture-secret-meeting-spy-boss.html?ito=email_share_article-top
“ Before Donald Trump's top spy chief submitted his stunning resignation over the Iran war, he had privately confided his plans to his closest political ally, JD Vance.
Joe Kent quit as Trump's director of the National Counterterrorism Center on Tuesday, accusing Israel of pressuring the US into a conflict he says was built on lies.
Kent, a close ally of Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, presented his resignation letter to the Vice President 24 hours before dramatically quitting. Gabbard was also present at the meeting, according to the Washington Post.”
Let’s say the war lasts two more weeks. By that time Israel and the USA have absolutely pulverised Iran into the dust, so it won’t be a threat for a generation. Trump declares victory
Yes there is a horrible oil price spike but as the war ends everything reopens quickly. Iran needs the money. Dubai is damaged but it will bounce back
There is a relief rally. Stocks surge. Pressure for regime change in Iran actually begins to succeed. Meanwhile without his Iranian friends to help, Putin has no choice but to seek a peace in Ukraine
The world, remarkably, takes a massive turn for the better
Why not?
PM swerves questions as to whether he spoke to Mandelson over Epstein friendship.
Its not great, is it? Having committed himself so vigorously to the proposition that Mandelson lied to him, its a bit curious he cannot confirm they even spoke about it.
NEW: Trump hasn't made up his mind yet on whether he wants to send American forces into Iran and seize the country's nuclear material, which would be a very dangerous operation. In private conversations, he has said: "I have a lot of decisions to make."
Pentagon has prepared multiple options for the president as potential next steps in the Iran war.
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Wednesday he doubts the nuclear program can be destroyed militarily – because it's a vast program built over the decades and scattered across a number of facilities.
https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/2034306749209981427?s=20
It’s obviously not new news, but it’s the Beebs headline for PMQs
Anyone sensible will wonder: why won’t the wanker tell us?
Kemi’s line about Ange was pretty good (we both want a strong woman to replace him)
Netanyahu
He has to have war.
He'll invade Jordan and Egypt next
Obsession with Mandelson
Meanwhile in the real world 99.99 % of the public switch off
The Israelis know that they can con the White House into doing stupid things, so they think of a few more ... greater security in Lebanon, lebensraum into Egypt or whatever. So they start firing missiles again, and the US is tricked into joining in again.
Trump gains kudos for "doing a Vietnam (i.e. declaring a victory, and going home.) Unfortunately, he then recognises himself as a Triumphant War Leader, a veritable Wellington de nos jours, so feels compelled to invade Mexico, or Canada, or Greenland or similar, in order to Build a Wall or liberate some polar bears or whatever.
Even if Iran is a "success" for Trump, it will only encourage him to go on to make things worse. Maybe it's for the best if it drags on for a few more months in order to 1) keep him busy, and 2) re-educate the American voters.
Mr Barry more has moved to Kingsbridge, adjacent to Salcombe
Israel is decimating the senior ranks of the IRGC. Eventually there will be no one senior to run it. At that point it becomes a bunch of armed fiefdoms some of which wont see eye to eye with each other. The IRGC will have no coordination,, cohesion or control. The Ultras will of course try to treble down and in doing so will provoke a backlash. This could be from the population in general, the minorities making a grasp for freedom or the army trying to keep the country they love together.
One of the reporters last week - Sky I think - described the evoluation of the IRGC. In the 1980s it was 80% true believers and 20% hangers on. In the 2020s it is 20% true believers and 80% hangers on. If it is thus the chancers will start to peel away and the whole edifice cracks. A new and hopefully better Iran will emerge.
Cuba eluded JFK. Being remembered for getting it under Uncle Sam's thumb will be just too tempting for Trump's ego.
For anyone wanting cheering up, here's Evan Edinger pulling the legs off AI "anti-London" videos, including the one that uses footage from Derby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDkyP37JgY0
Here's a screenshot form a video showing dangerous threats on the tube in Peckham:
Top Trump(s), that.
Austin: "Au contraire, baby. I think that you can't resist me!"
If Trumps manages regime change in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran it will be a major foreign policy success.
Their need to get the bomb just got a whole lot bigger.
Over the last month or so there have been increasing signs that the war in Ukraine is turning Ukraine's way. They have actually gained a fair bit of territory. The persistent drone attacks on Moscow are utterly humiliating for Putin showing the inadequacy of the air defence systems. The lethality of drones seems to be increasing to the point that the numerical advantage in soldiers that the Russians have means less and less.
My bit of anti-pessimism for the day is that the war in Ukraine might be over sooner than we think and with a clear Ukrainian victory. The consequences of a defeated Russia are not straightforward and there are clear risks of chaos there but such a success will mean that the conventional risk to Western Europe will largely have disappeared allowing us much more time to separate ourselves from the US.
One of the few things he's got right.
Also true of some of the nuttier fundamentalists in the US (Hegseth's pastor, for example).
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TU_6INmxfsU
NEW: Most preferred choice for Prime Minister
- Nigel Farage: 26%
- Zack Polanski: 21%
- Keir Starmer: 16%
- Kemi Badenoch: 14%
- Rupert Lowe: 13%
- Ed Davey: 9%
[@FindoutnowUK]
(Though the first time was at the start of the troubles in Belfast, and there were distant explosions all night.)
Starmer did
https://ukaviation.aero/raf-fairford-at-the-centre-of-operation-epic-fury-britains-strategic-bomber-hub/
The USA is a great friend, of course, of the Saudis. With friends like these.
https://x.com/firasmodad/status/2034322332978700744?s=61
Actually my worst experience was on the mainland, with a visitor from Ulster, At a social event I was asked what I thought of the situation in Ulster. I was a guest so said, I thought diplomatically, that it was difficult for someone in Essex to tell.
Got a mouthful about how it was all the Catholics, should all be shot.
Although LOL at Davey being below Rupert Lowe.
More reasons why I consider Find Out Now the lead standard, their sample is fatally flawed.
Nigel should be very worried.
I'd expect at least 80%
If you add his figure to Farage, getting 39%, you get to a disconcerting number of volk wanting Durchsetzungsstarke Führung. About 20,000,000.
But that particular tweeter has 50k followers and is putting out dozens of tweets a day; it's extreme politics for money-making. That is an indicator of the scale of this stuff.
https://x.com/KieraDiss
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWHxFEn7ICw
The Russian government was getting close to running out of money before the US attacked Iran. It's been such a monumental blunder.
"When a Jewish News journalist pointed out that similarly large single sex prayer events are also held by Orthodox Jews in London, Badenoch’s representative replied that the Iftar event was “different”, without explaining how."
Well that's ok then!
We would do protestants one day, catholics the next, not always in that order, but almost totally segregated.
It was interesting that a few with no religious or political side would all be with the Catholics. A few on private said they felt more welcomed.
We always had a great time with both, work and socially.
Charming friendly company.
The numbers would look very different if DK/NOTA are ~40%.
If she fails to answer the question fully if put to her, she should consider her position too?
I can't compete with South Devon but even East Ham and Barking aren't without their attractions on such a fine afternoon.
Coffee overlooking the Barking Creek - it's not quite Venice, well, it's not Venice at all, apart from the water...
The end of Ramadan approaches and I see one or two are getting a bit over-excited. I don't know if anyone has open Suhoor prayers but on Friday (not sure if it will be tomorrow given the good weather), areas of each park in Newham will be closed off for Eid-al-Fitr prayers and obviously it's an observed religious event here just as Christian, Sikh, Muslim and Orthodox holidays and festivals are.
Should we be using religion and faith to define ourselves as a nation and a people? I'm not convinced being British is defined by the God to whom you pray (that seems to be the Restore line). Yes, we have a Christian history and tradition (though that's not been without its issues) but I'd like to think many of the values we have (or claim to have) are represented and present in faiths other than Christianity.
Yet I'm not blind to the fact there are aspects to some faiths (primarily but not exclusively relating to the lifestyle) which don't sit well with me or many others. I've no objection to individuals wishing to strictly adhere to the tenets of a faith but I object to those tenets being imposed on individuals without their approval or choice.
It was just now and again.