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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,495

    nico67 said:

    Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

    They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

    Also Politico reported Tuesday.

    According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

    These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

    According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

    America is led by morons.

    The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

    The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

    That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.
    Perhaps they looked at their record under far more competent administrations?
    Afghanistan - achieved F A at significant cost of lives and capital
    Iraq - https://theconversation.com/iraq-wars-aftermath-was-a-disaster-for-the-us-the-iran-war-is-headed-in-the-same-direction-277585
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,734

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Enjoying the perks of office seems the guiding ideology of both,
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,258

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    OK, so why "pretty much Tory"? T
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,986

    SNP looking like a majority is possible. Which is a reflection of how shit the opposition is when you consider the growing mess they are making...

    They have the field to themselves , as they say "In the kingdom of the blind , the one eyed man is King"
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 97

    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    Is there a single place where you can look up last night's results each week? I comb PB and sometimes give up...
    https://www.markpack.org.uk/176359/three-seats-change-hands-in-this-weeks-council-by-elections/
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,268

    nico67 said:

    Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

    They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

    Also Politico reported Tuesday.

    According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

    These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

    According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

    America is led by morons.

    The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

    The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

    That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.
    The USA is too spineless to put troops on the ground as they’re happier to just slaughter thousands of civilians . Bonespurs is now telling shipping companies to show more guts and travel through the Strait.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,262

    nico67 said:

    Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

    They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

    Also Politico reported Tuesday.

    According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

    These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

    According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

    America is led by morons.

    The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

    The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

    That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.
    I don't often agree with you but on this you have been consistent.

    Unfortunately, realpolitik rarely operates the way we would like and, to be blunt, this has never been about freedom for the Iranian people or regime change any more than the intervention in Venezuela was about ending the ruinous regime of Chavez and his successor, Maduro.

    The Iranians have this time done what I thought they might have tried in the past and have realised the value of Hormuz and the impact of oil prices on the world politically and economically. A prolonged blockade of the Straits and an extended period of oil prices around $100 will be marvellous for those countries producing oil (Russia, the Gulf States, America, Iran, Norway) and less good for everyone else.

    There's a community of interest at work here as there is in the Russia-Ukraine conflict about which I've spoken before.

    The problem for the UK is we are not a key world oil producer any longer and as a result we are on the wrong side of this interest.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,473

    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    Is there a single place where you can look up last night's results each week? I comb PB and sometimes give up...
    There should be something in the quick links, really.
    Yes, there should.

    Mark Pack's site is the best that I know of for this:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/176359/three-seats-change-hands-in-this-weeks-council-by-elections/

    Obviously it has an LD slant and the numbers often don't go up until mid-morning, but are accurate and clear when they do.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,046
    Scarpia said:

    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    Is there a single place where you can look up last night's results each week? I comb PB and sometimes give up...
    https://www.markpack.org.uk/176359/three-seats-change-hands-in-this-weeks-council-by-elections/
    Scarpia said:

    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    Is there a single place where you can look up last night's results each week? I comb PB and sometimes give up...
    https://www.markpack.org.uk/176359/three-seats-change-hands-in-this-weeks-council-by-elections/
    Also https://electionmaps.uk/byelections-since-le2025
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Reform get all the 27% who say that Reform are proud to be Scottish to vote for them, then that would be see them get about 5-10% more than they are currently polling in Scotland. The 27-30% in Wales who say Reform are proud to be Welsh or would stand up for Wales could also be enough to see Reform win most Senedd members.

    In both 2016 and 2021 the SNP did worse than the final Holyrood polls indicated, you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time they did better and Swinney is no Salmond and the SNP are not a fresh opposition party but nearly two decades in power

    Good morning

    What on earth have you had for breakfast

    Reform most Senedd members !!!!!!!!

    I would remind you their former leader is in jail for bribery to make pro -Russia statements in the European Parliament and that far right little englander Farage wants to abolish the Senedd

    As far as labour are concerned they are out of time and now caught up with the Chinese spying scandal

    Plaid will be the clear winner on the night and Reform will underperform, much as I expect in Scotland

    BBC News - First minister responds to China spy arrests as three named
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4553g7lr1o
    Senedd elections are pure PR now so less need for tactical anti Reform voting than FPTP, latest Senedd poll has Reform still tied for the lead with Plaid on 26% each even if down on the last poll
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2029935209454420141?s=20
    Reform are cratering in that poll and the Welsh will not vote for a little englander wanting to abolish the Senedd
    Well over a quarter of them still are and Reform are still tied for the Senedd lead
    I would remind you the elections are in May not now, and reform are losing support as demonstrated even in the poll you quoted
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,825
    @annmarie
    Axios: President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call…. While claiming Iran was about to surrender, he also suggested there were no officials left alive in Tehran with the power to make that decision. "Nobody knows who is the leader, so there is no one that can announce surrender," Trump said, according to two officials briefed on the call.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FWIW, the latest poll check projection for the local elections.

    I still don’t see Labour keeping its losses to one third of the seats it is defending, while losing half its vote share. And, I’d expect the Lib Dem’s to do better than a 12% vote share.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026

    That projector should largely be ignored, it is too over optimistic for Labour, Britain Votes Now has Reform winning most council seats in May and is likely to be more accurate

    https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/may-26
    You mean it is the poll you like not the one you don't
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,825
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,734
    Scott_xP said:

    @annmarie
    Axios: President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call…. While claiming Iran was about to surrender, he also suggested there were no officials left alive in Tehran with the power to make that decision. "Nobody knows who is the leader, so there is no one that can announce surrender," Trump said, according to two officials briefed on the call.

    That’s about as coherent as his remark about people walking about, without arms and legs.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962
    edited 9:57AM
    @Taz and all the other Whovians on PB.

    The rumours from earlier months were true: two more missing episodes have been found. They are Eps 1 and 3 of The Dalek's Master Plan, a 12-part serial from 1965.

    The missing episodes were part of the private collection mentioned by Film is Fabulous! earlier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636
    edited 9:57AM
    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    The Tories were the originators of the Conservative Party ie supporters of the Crown, originally those committed to the succession of James, Duke of York and Church of England as established church. They then became the Conservatives under Peel though after Peel repealed the Corn Laws and the Tories then became protectionist many Peelites joined with the Whigs to create the Liberals, including Gladstone. Then some Liberal Unionists joined the Conservatives in the late 19th century and with the rise of Labour in the early 20th century the Conservatives became more committed to free trade and a smaller state relative and capitalism relative to Labour so attracted some middle class Liberal free traders to keep out Labour. That culminated in Thatcher who combined basically Gladstonian Liberalism with Salisbury's national patriotism.

    Now under Kemi the Conservatives are basically accepting of Brexit, while in theory more free market and small state than Labour still and Reform on some issues while a bit more socially liberal than Farage is. Though there are now plenty of Thatcherites in Reform too, Reform tends to have a more nationalist element
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,262

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Well, yes, and because we are all political enthusiasts/anoraks/geeks (delete as appropriate), we are aware of the nuances and evolutions of parties and their policies over the past 30 years or longer.

    I remember when the most enthusiastic pro-European party was the Conservatives for example and for those with even longer memory, put the Liberal Party of the 1950s against the modern LDs and see what you get.

    Yet parties have to evolve as society evolves and we get too fixated on a romanticised idyll of what Labour or the Conservatives should be rather than reflecting on how these parties (and others) are confronting the very real issues of the 2020s.

    We throw terms like "left" and "right" around which have lost all meaning and are just insults now. The divisions between parties are now as much cultural and social as they once were economic and with the coming of environmental politics, there are new challenges and new areas for debate.

    There's this pointless fixation from some on "class", wealth or even education as some kind of political barometer but that's lost meaning as well and we have a much less tribal and much more volatile electorate out there (as well as the increasing number who have become totally disengaged from the political process).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,393

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    You are using it for the wrong tasks - used correctly, it is an eager but slightly dim assistant who can do tons of work. That needs careful checking.
    The slightly dim assistant isn't even true now.

    In the past week based on a unique idea I had of how to solve a ML problem (which is the classic supervisor here's an idea to a PhD student) it has implemented a working solution, it has used Karpathy's autoresearch idea to optimse for a high quality machine learning architecture (that was significantly better than what would be prior standard), uncovered a novel way of doing something, set up all the tests and visualisations, written what could easily be turned into an academic paper on it and then it made slides for a 15 mins talk based upon the "paper".

    All working, demos, results, paper, slides. One week. That would take high quality PhD 6-12 months at least even if the supervisor gave them the outline of the solution.
    On the other hand, we had the PMQs example last week when Times Radio asked it to check something Kemi had said, and AI correctly identified that it had been said 20 minutes ago by the leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak.

    Thinking about it, maybe there is a general issue with things that change over time as it smashes together ‘facts’ from different sources. I've certainly had that with AI-assisted computer troubleshooting.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,833
    This was filmed 13 years ago. Prescient on immigration, Truss being a lightweight, popularity of the greens. A lot in a short clip.

    https://x.com/nathanpmyoung/status/2032204300462497835?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962

    "They don't usually have funny stories in A&E."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygj315dx7o

    "Lynch said the dye had possibly rubbed off due to him overheating in bed"

    Is that what they're calling it now?

    :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Well, yes, and because we are all political enthusiasts/anoraks/geeks (delete as appropriate), we are aware of the nuances and evolutions of parties and their policies over the past 30 years or longer.

    I remember when the most enthusiastic pro-European party was the Conservatives for example and for those with even longer memory, put the Liberal Party of the 1950s against the modern LDs and see what you get.

    Yet parties have to evolve as society evolves and we get too fixated on a romanticised idyll of what Labour or the Conservatives should be rather than reflecting on how these parties (and others) are confronting the very real issues of the 2020s.

    We throw terms like "left" and "right" around which have lost all meaning and are just insults now. The divisions between parties are now as much cultural and social as they once were economic and with the coming of environmental politics, there are new challenges and new areas for debate.

    There's this pointless fixation from some on "class", wealth or even education as some kind of political barometer but that's lost meaning as well and we have a much less tribal and much more volatile electorate out there (as well as the increasing number who have become totally disengaged from the political process).
    And in Cason Royale, written the 1950s, Bond reflects that the Conservative government is carrying out policies that would have been described as Communism before the war.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636
    edited 10:01AM

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FWIW, the latest poll check projection for the local elections.

    I still don’t see Labour keeping its losses to one third of the seats it is defending, while losing half its vote share. And, I’d expect the Lib Dem’s to do better than a 12% vote share.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026

    That projector should largely be ignored, it is too over optimistic for Labour, Britain Votes Now has Reform winning most council seats in May and is likely to be more accurate

    https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/may-26
    You mean it is the poll you like not the one you don't
    Given Reform lead in every UK poll, you would expect Reform to win most council seats in May, even if Labour or the Greens still win London.

    Especially given Reform will win the delayed county council elections going ahead this year now too which weren't held last year eg Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,746

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    Does that mean anything more than that you can count, that you think the country might have to suffer for a bit before enjoying jam tomorrow, and that you have a stake in the status quo (house/business ownership) so you aren't willing to blow everything up in the hope that things are better afterwards?

    I don't think that would make you a Tory. I'm pretty confident in still being a leftie, despite despairing of the simplistic solutions often offered up by those claiming to represent the left. The essence of it for me is that I have a fundamental belief in the potential of people to do good, and that we can make things better for everyone by cooperating and working together.

    My view of those on the right is that they have a fundamentally more pessimistic view of human nature, and consequently favour solutions that are individualistic, rather than cooperative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Labour are the party of a bigger state still and woke but not as much as the Greens are now
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    edited 10:02AM

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    You are using it for the wrong tasks - used correctly, it is an eager but slightly dim assistant who can do tons of work. That needs careful checking.
    The slightly dim assistant isn't even true now.

    In the past week based on a unique idea I had of how to solve a ML problem (which is the classic supervisor here's an idea to a PhD student) it has implemented a working solution, it has used Karpathy's autoresearch idea to optimse for a high quality machine learning architecture (that was significantly better than what would be prior standard), uncovered a novel way of doing something, set up all the tests and visualisations, written what could easily be turned into an academic paper on it and then it made slides for a 15 mins talk based upon the "paper".

    All working, demos, results, paper, slides. One week. That would take high quality PhD 6-12 months at least even if the supervisor gave them the outline of the solution.
    On the other hand, we had the PMQs example last week when Times Radio asked it to check something Kemi had said, and AI correctly identified that it had been said 20 minutes ago by the leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak.

    Thinking about it, maybe there is a general issue with things that change over time as it smashes together ‘facts’ from different sources. I've certainly had that with AI-assisted computer troubleshooting.
    Part of the reason that @FrancisUrquhart is having such success is that the training set for academic work is less contaminated with bullshit, I think. Though a number of people are working quite hard to fix that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,734

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    You are using it for the wrong tasks - used correctly, it is an eager but slightly dim assistant who can do tons of work. That needs careful checking.
    The slightly dim assistant isn't even true now.

    In the past week based on a unique idea I had of how to solve a ML problem (which is the classic supervisor here's an idea to a PhD student) it has implemented a working solution, it has used Karpathy's autoresearch idea to optimse for a high quality machine learning architecture (that was significantly better than what would be prior standard), uncovered a novel way of doing something, set up all the tests and visualisations, written what could easily be turned into an academic paper on it and then it made slides for a 15 mins talk based upon the "paper".

    All working, demos, results, paper, slides. One week. That would take high quality PhD 6-12 months at least even if the supervisor gave them the outline of the solution.
    On the other hand, we had the PMQs example last week when Times Radio asked it to check something Kemi had said, and AI correctly identified that it had been said 20 minutes ago by the leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak.

    Thinking about it, maybe there is a general issue with things that change over time as it smashes together ‘facts’ from different sources. I've certainly had that with AI-assisted computer troubleshooting.
    Not to mention, my finding out, thanks to AI, that Herod was alive 26 years before he was born. Or, that I am the author of a book on the Peninsular War.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If memory serves you have stood as a Lib Dem candidate and were offered another candidature by that party, but turned it down. What policies do the Lib Dems advocate that you now reject, and what policies did you reject from the Conservatives that you now adopt? Or is it just vibes?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962
    viewcode said:

    @Taz and all the other Whovians on PB.

    The rumours from earlier months were true: two more missing episodes have been found. They are Eps 1 and 3 of The Dalek's Master Plan, a 12-part serial from 1965.

    The missing episodes were part of the private collection mentioned by Film is Fabulous! earlier.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/doctor-who-episodes-missing-daleks-master-plan-b2937732.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Terrible, terrible development. Israel began striking Lebanese state infrastructure. This infrastructure is used not just by Hezbollah, but also by Lebanese civilians, most of whom oppose Hezbollah.

    Collective punishment is wrong; it also helps Hezbollah, which is more isolated than ever domestically in Lebanon, facing unprecedented popular fury even inside the Shia sect, for dragging Lebanon into war. Collectively punishing the Lebanese may push more of them toward supporting "resistance" in the face of indiscriminate aggression.


    https://x.com/LizHurra/status/2032347611487687055

    I’m shocked at this, absolutely shocked !!
    Netanyahu playbook.

    The genocidal cnut has no brake, no off buttom, its genicide of Arabs, full stop.

    He'll use the tired old "weeding out the terrorists" to carpet / blanket bomb anything that stands up. Just look at Gaza.

    They won't let anyone in and they wil quite happilly build a massive buffer zone around Israel.

    The time has to come when he is hunted down, taken out and until he is, Israel must be sanctioned and ostracised in the same way as Russia. He is no better than Putin, in many ways he is far worse than Putin.
    "as bad as Pol Pot" . . . "far worse than Putin"

    Your moral compass is completely broken.

    The Cambodian genocide by Pol Pot, were skulls were literally piled high led to between 2 - 3 million deaths and a quarter to a third of the population wiped out.

    Putin invaded a free, democratic country that was neither threatening nor attacking Russia in a pure unadulterated war of aggression.

    Netanyahu's Israel has only fought against groups or countries that attacked Israel first.

    You may not like the way the wars are fought, that is reasonable. But to suggest that it is as bad as Pol Pot, or worse than Putin, says you are either being completely ignorant of what the latter two did or you have a very broken moral compass.
    It's incredibly rare for you to say something about Israel's conduct that is fair and reasonable but you manage it here. It's not as bad as Pol Pot.
    It is good to see you both rejecting the extreme views expresssed by @Brixian59

    I am utterly devastated about this war and Israel's actions in Lebanon

    Netanyahu and the leaders of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah are all war criminals, but just as we see in Iran, removal of their leader galvanises the regime, and it cannot be disregarded that the removal of Netanyahu wouldn't do the same, not least because the opposition support Netanyahu

    It is the most horrible of outcomes, but calmer heads have to come together to start to address how this idiocy from all sides is stopped
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248
    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    Sean_F said:

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    You are using it for the wrong tasks - used correctly, it is an eager but slightly dim assistant who can do tons of work. That needs careful checking.
    The slightly dim assistant isn't even true now.

    In the past week based on a unique idea I had of how to solve a ML problem (which is the classic supervisor here's an idea to a PhD student) it has implemented a working solution, it has used Karpathy's autoresearch idea to optimse for a high quality machine learning architecture (that was significantly better than what would be prior standard), uncovered a novel way of doing something, set up all the tests and visualisations, written what could easily be turned into an academic paper on it and then it made slides for a 15 mins talk based upon the "paper".

    All working, demos, results, paper, slides. One week. That would take high quality PhD 6-12 months at least even if the supervisor gave them the outline of the solution.
    On the other hand, we had the PMQs example last week when Times Radio asked it to check something Kemi had said, and AI correctly identified that it had been said 20 minutes ago by the leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak.

    Thinking about it, maybe there is a general issue with things that change over time as it smashes together ‘facts’ from different sources. I've certainly had that with AI-assisted computer troubleshooting.
    Not to mention, my finding out, thanks to AI, that Herod was alive 26 years before he was born. Or, that I am the author of a book on the Peninsular War.
    Was the fictional book any good?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    Sky

    Explosion in a Tehran square during marches
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,746

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    Reform + Greens are polling ~40-45% of the view, depending on the opinion polls you favour.

    Where else would the Tories or Labour find missing votes?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    HYUFD said:

    SNP looking like a majority is possible. Which is a reflection of how shit the opposition is when you consider the growing mess they are making...

    SNP down 10% on constituency vote since 2021 and down 7% on regional list vote on latest poll and SNP did not even win a majority in 2021
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election
    @RochdalePioneers lives in Scotland and has been involved in Scottish politics so I would trust his observatiins before a southern Englishman who has not lived there
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,890
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Well, yes, and because we are all political enthusiasts/anoraks/geeks (delete as appropriate), we are aware of the nuances and evolutions of parties and their policies over the past 30 years or longer.

    I remember when the most enthusiastic pro-European party was the Conservatives for example and for those with even longer memory, put the Liberal Party of the 1950s against the modern LDs and see what you get.

    Yet parties have to evolve as society evolves and we get too fixated on a romanticised idyll of what Labour or the Conservatives should be rather than reflecting on how these parties (and others) are confronting the very real issues of the 2020s.

    We throw terms like "left" and "right" around which have lost all meaning and are just insults now. The divisions between parties are now as much cultural and social as they once were economic and with the coming of environmental politics, there are new challenges and new areas for debate.

    There's this pointless fixation from some on "class", wealth or even education as some kind of political barometer but that's lost meaning as well and we have a much less tribal and much more volatile electorate out there (as well as the increasing number who have become totally disengaged from the political process).
    IIRC, a a Lib in the 70's, it wasn't, sometimes at least, easy to 'become' a LD!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    Some things it does well. A colleague used it this week to catalogue his chemical inventory. He took photos of the bottles/containers, ask Claud to read the names, the CAS number (a unique identifier for each chemical) and the amount and then add them to a spreasheet.

    It did it. Saved hours of laborious effort.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,389
    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    I think there will be lots of surprised Green paper candidates who get elected!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,262
    edited 10:12AM

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    There's a similar gap in what being a Labour supporter means.

    Perhaps this correlates to polling positions for the parties?
    Well, yes, and because we are all political enthusiasts/anoraks/geeks (delete as appropriate), we are aware of the nuances and evolutions of parties and their policies over the past 30 years or longer.

    I remember when the most enthusiastic pro-European party was the Conservatives for example and for those with even longer memory, put the Liberal Party of the 1950s against the modern LDs and see what you get.

    Yet parties have to evolve as society evolves and we get too fixated on a romanticised idyll of what Labour or the Conservatives should be rather than reflecting on how these parties (and others) are confronting the very real issues of the 2020s.

    We throw terms like "left" and "right" around which have lost all meaning and are just insults now. The divisions between parties are now as much cultural and social as they once were economic and with the coming of environmental politics, there are new challenges and new areas for debate.

    There's this pointless fixation from some on "class", wealth or even education as some kind of political barometer but that's lost meaning as well and we have a much less tribal and much more volatile electorate out there (as well as the increasing number who have become totally disengaged from the political process).
    And in Cason Royale, written the 1950s, Bond reflects that the Conservative government is carrying out policies that would have been described as Communism before the war.
    Yet it was Conservatives like Rab Butler and Iain MacLeod and indeed Enoch Powell in the Conservative Research Department who, in the Attlee years, decided the only way back for the party was to embrace the popular reforms such as nationalisation and the creation of the NHS but on the basis of the Conservatives running them better.

    The pre-war policies of Chamberlain just wouldn't have had any traction in the post war world. With this new message, the Conservatives won in 1951 and went on to govern for 13 years - you can call it Butskellism if you like but it was successful in terms of building housing and getting Britain away from its immediate post-war gloom.

    Conservatives are or were pragmatic - take London, they opposed the creation of the Mayor and the GLA but lost the referendum and accepted the result. I've never heard any London Conservative publicly advocate abolishing the London mayoralty or the GLA - it's an example of what others should have done after 2016.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,102
    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    I gave that a like, even though I think a few are off target (I am just as likely as you to be wrong, of course).

    Alternatively.

    - There's a referendum in the late 2020s, and we rejoin the EU around the same time as Ukraine does. It proves a success.
    - Birthrate becomes less of a concern thanks to automation and robotics. The smaller population benefits accordingly.
    - The follies and disasters of Trump leads to a landslide against the GOP. It takes most of the next decade to fully convince the rest of the world he was just an aberration.
    - Putin is succeeded by another autocrat. Russia doesn't change at all; but is contained by its neighbours, and becomes even poorer relative to the RoW.
    - Xi dies. The CCC maintains its stranglehold on power. I have no idea what happens next.
    - AI, despite remaining 'dumb' for the foreseeable future, completely reorders society.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,061
    At least Boris tried..

    Municipal Dreams
    @MunicipalDreams
    This seems to be asking a lot of Sadiq Khan ...

    https://x.com/MunicipalDreams/status/2032109202072637859?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,102
    nico67 said:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-administration-underestimated-iran

    Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes, according to three sources familiar with the closed-door session.

    So the US again fucks up the world economy on the whim of a leader.
    Netenyahu this time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,890

    stodge said:

    OIl prices off their overnight highs with Saudi apparently putting 2 million barrels (a drop) into supply via the Red Sea.

    WTI is currently at $95 with Brent around $100 per barrel. These are the kind of numbers which, if sustained, will push us (and a lot of other countries) into recession. Even strong performing economies will feel this kind of oil price "shock" if it continues for any length of time.

    There still seems plenty of confusion over Hormuz and oil production in the Gulf States and a degree of clarity would be welcome. The Iranians, if the morning coverage is to be believed, are still capable of strikes but on a limited scale.

    Last night's local council by-elections were again poor for both Labour and the Conservatives with both losing share - to be fair, the seven votes won by Labour in the Cotswolds were fractionally worse than the eight won by the Conservatives in Liverpool but both parties took a pounding in all the seats.

    Something for Reform, Greens and the LDs in last night's results and you could predict where the changes would be based on areas of known strength and weakness.

    I'm beginning to wonder how well the Greens will do in parts of Inner London in May - it will be fascinating to see the numbers of candidates they can put up in places like Lewisham. Last time, Labour won 55% and all 54 seats, the Greens got 20% and stood 44 candidates. I suspect a full slate of Green candidates this time and if they can get the big swings some of the local by-elections are suggesting, it could be a real shock for Labour.

    I think there will be lots of surprised Green paper candidates who get elected!
    There were a lot of 'surprised' Lib councillors in the mid sixties. Many of them didn't last, either as Libs or councillors.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,102

    nico67 said:

    Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

    They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

    Also Politico reported Tuesday.

    According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

    These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

    According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

    America is led by morons.

    The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

    The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

    That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.
    A mere 20% of the US electorate agrees with you.
    Along with around 5% of the UK public.

    You've already demonstrated a complete ignorance of what's involved ("they should take Tehran" etc).

    Give it a rest.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,912
    edited 10:18AM

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    The "big" political divide between the Conservatives and Labour over the last 30 years has been in words rather than actions. The difference in tax and spend between the two parties facing the same scenario is very marginal, probably 1% of GDP, maybe 2% at the most. But the language they use is completely different and that attracts different folks.

    Reform and Greens do have something right when they say the country has not been offered much of a choice (with the exception of Brexit, so through GE voting). They don't have any better solutions though, and in fact would make things worse. Ultimately our demographics are crap and the external global economy has been and probably will be unfavourable too, so meeting voter expectations consistently in government is likely impossible.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,721
    edited 10:20AM
    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,574
    edited 10:20AM
    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,783
    edited 10:21AM
    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    The opportunity existed after the massive GE defeat for the Tories to spend time thinking things through at the deepest level about what the party values, philosophy and principles were. They have reverted to squawky and shallow pragmatism. Not that other parties are better.

    I accept that all sorts of rubbish is needed to win an election, but that same rubbish can't govern a country.

    OTOH the commentary isn't much better. Ten thousand articles articulate the nature of the UK's political and national malaise but stop there. John Bew in the New Statesman this week 'The Great British Crisis' devotes about six pages to it going back 250 years. And stops at exactly the point where the reader wants to start.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,393

    "They don't usually have funny stories in A&E."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygj315dx7o

    Life imitates art. House had the same thing, except then it was red rather than blue dye. (No time to find the clip on Gold Cup day.)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,495
    isam said:

    This was filmed 13 years ago. Prescient on immigration, Truss being a lightweight, popularity of the greens. A lot in a short clip.

    https://x.com/nathanpmyoung/status/2032204300462497835?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Is that the last known sighting of Caroline Flint?
    Also Truss before she went insane.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    The Tories were the originators of the Conservative Party ie supporters of the Crown, originally those committed to the succession of James, Duke of York and Church of England as established church. They then became the Conservatives under Peel though after Peel repealed the Corn Laws and the Tories then became protectionist many Peelites joined with the Whigs to create the Liberals, including Gladstone. Then some Liberal Unionists joined the Conservatives in the late 19th century and with the rise of Labour in the early 20th century the Conservatives became more committed to free trade and a smaller state relative and capitalism relative to Labour so attracted some middle class Liberal free traders to keep out Labour. That culminated in Thatcher who combined basically Gladstonian Liberalism with Salisbury's national patriotism.

    Now under Kemi the Conservatives are basically accepting of Brexit, while in theory more free market and small state than Labour still and Reform on some issues while a bit more socially liberal than Farage is. Though there are now plenty of Thatcherites in Reform too, Reform tends to have a more nationalist element
    Detaiked and true as ever, but it may have been better with more details about the gap between Nov 1989 (the end of MT) and Nov 2024 (appt of Kemi). That's thirty-five missing years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962

    Sean_F said:

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    You are using it for the wrong tasks - used correctly, it is an eager but slightly dim assistant who can do tons of work. That needs careful checking.
    The slightly dim assistant isn't even true now.

    In the past week based on a unique idea I had of how to solve a ML problem (which is the classic supervisor here's an idea to a PhD student) it has implemented a working solution, it has used Karpathy's autoresearch idea to optimse for a high quality machine learning architecture (that was significantly better than what would be prior standard), uncovered a novel way of doing something, set up all the tests and visualisations, written what could easily be turned into an academic paper on it and then it made slides for a 15 mins talk based upon the "paper".

    All working, demos, results, paper, slides. One week. That would take high quality PhD 6-12 months at least even if the supervisor gave them the outline of the solution.
    On the other hand, we had the PMQs example last week when Times Radio asked it to check something Kemi had said, and AI correctly identified that it had been said 20 minutes ago by the leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak.

    Thinking about it, maybe there is a general issue with things that change over time as it smashes together ‘facts’ from different sources. I've certainly had that with AI-assisted computer troubleshooting.
    Not to mention, my finding out, thanks to AI, that Herod was alive 26 years before he was born. Or, that I am the author of a book on the Peninsular War.
    Was the fictional book any good?
    Sod that, what were the royalties like?

    :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

    They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

    Also Politico reported Tuesday.

    According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

    These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

    According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

    America is led by morons.

    The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

    The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

    That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.
    A mere 20% of the US electorate agrees with you.
    Along with around 5% of the UK public.

    You've already demonstrated a complete ignorance of what's involved ("they should take Tehran" etc).

    Give it a rest.
    Agreed, though not sure who has exploded a bomb in a Tehran Square this morning whilst pro regime marches were taking place
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/thousands-xl-bullies-at-risk-33581339

    Short version - insurance for XL Bullies (and other breeds) is going away. Which means that the dogs then are subject to seizure and destruction.

    Wasn’t it @rcs1000 who advocated using insurance to limit dangerous dogs?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248

    "They don't usually have funny stories in A&E."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygj315dx7o

    I'm not sure putting him on oxygen was needed. "How do you feel?" "Fine, its just my exposed bits of skin have gone blue". Check his pulse and sats and see he was healthy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,890

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    And the alternative is Mrs B and her lot? I don't see any improvement.
    I'm not an enthusiastic supporter of the LD's but they seem to be an improvement on the other two.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    edited 10:25AM

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,783

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    My guess is that the advantage in the next GE will be to the Left of Centre tactical voting coalition over the Right of Centre alternative. I think they will be better at organising. The Right of Centre (Tory+ Reform) combined vote has also been drifting down over the last few months. The killer might be in six months to a year's time when both Tories and Reform announce a relaunch.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,393

    "They don't usually have funny stories in A&E."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygj315dx7o

    I'm not sure putting him on oxygen was needed. "How do you feel?" "Fine, its just my exposed bits of skin have gone blue". Check his pulse and sats and see he was healthy.
    That is what they did. He was put on oxygen while they did the other tests. No point in having the tests come back positive if he is already dead by then.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    None of any of them !!!!!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    Reform + Greens are polling ~40-45% of the view, depending on the opinion polls you favour.

    Where else would the Tories or Labour find missing votes?
    Lib dems...

    I suppose I wasn't clear enough. Some of reform and some of the hard left are not coming back, but there are a lot who have left their more natural homes in disgust. Being more like Reform or more like the Greens isn't winning people away from Reform or the Greens.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490

    Sweeney74 said:



    I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

    Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

    Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

    In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

    Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.
    He doesn't seem to know how to navigate policies through the political system. Saying the Blob is stopping everything is an admission of failure.

    All complex socio-political structures have multiple vested interests. Navigating policies through them is exactly what politicians are for.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,994

    I'm thinking of having a week - maybe a month - with no exposure to the news at all. I am a news junky so it is going to be bloody difficult. Will miss you guys.

    But no Trump? Bliss.

    Stick with the moths. Much more rewarding.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248

    "They don't usually have funny stories in A&E."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygj315dx7o

    I'm not sure putting him on oxygen was needed. "How do you feel?" "Fine, its just my exposed bits of skin have gone blue". Check his pulse and sats and see he was healthy.
    That is what they did. He was put on oxygen while they did the other tests. No point in having the tests come back positive if he is already dead by then.
    Except he was showing no signs of clinical distress - I find putting him on oxygen bizarre.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,912
    algarkirk said:

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    My guess is that the advantage in the next GE will be to the Left of Centre tactical voting coalition over the Right of Centre alternative. I think they will be better at organising. The Right of Centre (Tory+ Reform) combined vote has also been drifting down over the last few months. The killer might be in six months to a year's time when both Tories and Reform announce a relaunch.

    If Badenoch can get Liz Truss to defect to Reform that might be enough to propel the Conservatives into first place.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,023
    edited 10:35AM

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/infolibnews/status/2032191579981529591

    Netanyahu: The war in Iran is turning Israel into a "global superpower."

    So it’s not just Trump and Another Richard that are totally tonto.
    Perhaps you would prefer it I would cheer along and wave the pompoms.

    Okay then.

    Joe Biden is fit for office.
    Hunter Biden is a victim of a political witch hunt.
    Even if Hunter Biden is guilty he will never be given a presidential pardon.
    The prosecutions of Trump are masterpieces of legal planning.
    Trump cannot win because his crowds are so small.
    Dems never gerrymander.

    Alternatively I'll keep pointing out the occasional uncomfortable truth.

    And you know why that's important ?

    Because when groupthink become obligatory people stop thinking.
    Merely repeating Trump’s lies sometimes mingled with half truths does not make them truths, uncomfortable or otherwise. And I might point out those were not what you have been saying above, so are essentially whataboutery.

    And do you know why it’s important to call that out? Or am I justified in my comment on your mental state?

    (The irony is one of the things you have written there is undoubtedly true!)
    Stop your bleating and open your mind.

    Saying that Joe Biden was unfit for office or that Hunter Biden was a criminal who received a presidential pardon or that the Dems gerrymander are not Trump's lies nor are they half truths.

    They are verifiable facts which you are now denying.

    You need to accept that we are not in a Manichean world but one of multiple shades where there are inconvenient facts and open minded analysis is required to better understand it.
    Last evening I believe I comprehensively rebutted one of your pro- Trump, anti- Biden posts. A post you did not respond to.

    The reason Biden needed to pardon Hunter Biden and pre-empt prosecutions against himself and people like Fauci was because Trump is so malign and vindictive. It is quite ironic really as one of my rebuttal points was that Merrick Garland and by definition the Biden administration did absolutely nothing to chase down Trump's Epstein criminality nor did they progress Trump's sedition charge at any reasonable pace.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,388
    algarkirk said:

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    My guess is that the advantage in the next GE will be to the Left of Centre tactical voting coalition over the Right of Centre alternative. I think they will be better at organising. The Right of Centre (Tory+ Reform) combined vote has also been drifting down over the last few months. The killer might be in six months to a year's time when both Tories and Reform announce a relaunch.

    There will need to be a mature reflection by LD and Green that the only way in to Government and a chance to actually impact and input is a loose centre left pact.

    Labour need to be very mature about that too.

    Tactically taking on Tory and Reform and supportimg each other
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,912

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    Reform + Greens are polling ~40-45% of the view, depending on the opinion polls you favour.

    Where else would the Tories or Labour find missing votes?
    Of that 40-45% a significant chunk are protest votes, not an endorsement of specific Reform and Green policies. So Labour and Conservatives don't need to offer "lite" versions of those policies, but a coherent, plausible set of policies of their own backed by good and consistent communication to win them back.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,388

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,495
    edited 10:41AM
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    I gave that a like, even though I think a few are off target (I am just as likely as you to be wrong, of course).

    Alternatively.

    - There's a referendum in the late 2020s, and we rejoin the EU around the same time as Ukraine does. It proves a success.
    - Birthrate becomes less of a concern thanks to automation and robotics. The smaller population benefits accordingly.
    - The follies and disasters of Trump leads to a landslide against the GOP. It takes most of the next decade to fully convince the rest of the world he was just an aberration.
    - Putin is succeeded by another autocrat. Russia doesn't change at all; but is contained by its neighbours, and becomes even poorer relative to the RoW.
    - Xi dies. The CCC maintains its stranglehold on power. I have no idea what happens next.
    - AI, despite remaining 'dumb' for the foreseeable future, completely reorders society.
    EU - slowly the UK as good as rejoins, Brexit supporters are allowed to carry on believing UK has still left and no one even suggests another Referendum
    US - Trump is allowed to run again and claims the win under very dubious circumstances, SCOTUS mutters "will of the people" and evades making any ruling. Trump's health continues to decline, Stephen Miller takes effective control and eventually Presidency as US turns into totalitarian fascist regime.
    Russia - Putin is embalmed and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues into a second decade of seasonal power shifts but overall stalemate
    UK - living standards continue to decline with the tax rate on under 50s rising inexorably. Dementia care homes multiply.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,023

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Beer and curry all 'round!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,567
    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,388

    algarkirk said:

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    My guess is that the advantage in the next GE will be to the Left of Centre tactical voting coalition over the Right of Centre alternative. I think they will be better at organising. The Right of Centre (Tory+ Reform) combined vote has also been drifting down over the last few months. The killer might be in six months to a year's time when both Tories and Reform announce a relaunch.

    If Badenoch can get Liz Truss to defect to Reform that might be enough to propel the Conservatives into first place.
    If James Cleverly is Tory Leader that's a 50 50 chance.

    With the political equivalent of Violet Elizabeth scream scream and scream in charge, they are headed for 5th place.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,994

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    Being a centrist dad the Toryism of Major, Hurd and Heseltine looks totally fine to me. But the modern Tory party is a million miles from that kind of decency and pragmatism.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622

    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
    LOL
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490

    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
    LOL
    Sleep deprivation is a serious issue - can point to sleep apnea. Should get that checked out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,890

    Sweeney74 said:



    I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

    Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

    Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

    In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

    Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.
    He doesn't seem to know how to navigate policies through the political system. Saying the Blob is stopping everything is an admission of failure.

    All complex socio-political structures have multiple vested interests. Navigating policies through them is exactly what politicians are for.
    Starmer came late to politics. 'Innocent abroad' is the best description, I think.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,962

    This evening's Trump whine. He isn't getting enough credit for being in office when it hits 250 years of independence.


    Acyn
    @Acyn
    ·
    53m
    Trump: We have the Olympics, the World Cup, and twenty—you know, the 250. I did all three all of them. I got the Olympics, the World Cup, and then I got 250 but I’ve never been given credit for it. They won’t give me credit for 250 years but I’m here for 250.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032197976295432323

    1783 to 2026 is only 243 years.

    #pedanticbetting
    To be fair they had the big 200 year celebrations in 1976 not 1983. No idea why but it was the big anniversary date in the US.
    They uses the Declaration of Independence - 1776 - as the start date. In 1783 the Brits were just recognising the facts on the ground
    Did Ireland become independent in 1916 or 1921?
    I think the British date it from 1922 (Irish Free State) or 1931 (end of Dominionship) or even 1937 (Ireland)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622

    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
    LOL
    Sleep deprivation is a serious issue - can point to sleep apnea. Should get that checked out.
    Actually our eldest suffers from sleep apnea and uses a CPAP nightly
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,825
    Sweeney74 said:

    Which is why I find it genuinely depressing that, since devolution, we’ve had so little to show for it in the things that actually matter: health outcomes, education outcomes, housing, infrastructure delivery, addiction and mental health, local services that work, and the general sense that the state can still build and run things competently. Plenty of blame to go around across administrations, but after almost 19 years in power the SNP own the results.

    There is a debate to be had about why the first Labour devolved administration was not as successful as hoped on that front, but the problem with the SNP is they are determined to prove that devolution can't be successful, which makes it hard for them to run a successful devolved administration...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,102
    LOL

    Give me a call if you are confused by the facts. That way we can avoid you getting a defamation letter in the future.
    https://x.com/TriciaOhio/status/2032200100764594495


    https://x.com/kurtbardella/status/2032216698468602130
    Thank you for the invitation to get the "facts" directly from you. As such, here are some questions:

    1.) What was your role in interviewing (virtually on Zoom, I've been told) and/or selecting any contractors used for the $220 million ad campaign? Who assigned you that role?

    2.) How many interviews (virtual or in person) were you a part of? How many contractors were "considered"?

    3.) How did Safe America, an entity that did not exist less than two weeks before it was selected, even enter consideration for a gov't contract?

    4.) When The Strategy Group subcontracted on the filming of the ad w/Sec. Noem, they would have had to work directly w/ DHS and DHS Comms to coordinate the logistics, scheduling & participation of the shoot. Were you a part of that? If not, who at DHS was?

    5.) How much of this $220 million taxpayer-financed campaign was spent on actual advertising (ad buys), and how much was pocketed by contractors, subcontractors, etc. for “overhead” and "compensation."

    6.) What interactions, if any, did your husband, Ben Yoho, have with any DHS staff/appointees? Specifically, did he have any communication with Corey Lewandowski?

    7.) How did the Strategy Group become a subcontractor to this newly formed entity, Safe America? ...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,890

    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
    LOL
    Sleep deprivation is a serious issue - can point to sleep apnea. Should get that checked out.
    Actually our eldest suffers from sleep apnea and uses a CPAP nightly
    Doesn't do a lot for your love life, according to a chap on the TV this morning!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,495

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/thousands-xl-bullies-at-risk-33581339

    Short version - insurance for XL Bullies (and other breeds) is going away. Which means that the dogs then are subject to seizure and destruction.

    Wasn’t it @rcs1000 who advocated using insurance to limit dangerous dogs?

    Is the mounting cost the number of attacks they're having to pay out on?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,170

    Fishing said:

    OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

    - there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
    - sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
    - the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
    - Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
    - after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
    - the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
    - understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

    Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

    You will be spot on about AI.

    Every week that passes and I am forced to use it again I’m convinced it’s useless slop.
    Some things it does well. A colleague used it this week to catalogue his chemical inventory. He took photos of the bottles/containers, ask Claud to read the names, the CAS number (a unique identifier for each chemical) and the amount and then add them to a spreasheet.

    It did it. Saved hours of laborious effort.
    Yes, AI is fantastic for stuff like that. Tasks involving pattern recognition, data extraction and categorisation can be massively automated with AI.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 261
    Scott_xP said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Which is why I find it genuinely depressing that, since devolution, we’ve had so little to show for it in the things that actually matter: health outcomes, education outcomes, housing, infrastructure delivery, addiction and mental health, local services that work, and the general sense that the state can still build and run things competently. Plenty of blame to go around across administrations, but after almost 19 years in power the SNP own the results.

    There is a debate to be had about why the first Labour devolved administration was not as successful as hoped on that front, but the problem with the SNP is they are determined to prove that devolution can't be successful, which makes it hard for them to run a successful devolved administration...
    The SNP are a protest party, a single issue nationalist campaigning group who have found themselves in power for the last 19 years with no idea what to do with it.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636

    stodge said:

    In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

    If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

    There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

    I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.
    I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.
    Being a centrist dad the Toryism of Major, Hurd and Heseltine looks totally fine to me. But the modern Tory party is a million miles from that kind of decency and pragmatism.
    Is it? Major, Hurd and Heseltine are still in the Tory Party, whereas Jenrick, Rosindell etc are now in Reform
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,102
    This guy would last five minutes on PB.

    Miller: There's never, in history, been a more total asymmetric one-sided annihilation of the enemy than you are witnessing and is unfolding right now in Iran. It has been a complete wipeout of their capacity to unleash violence on the world
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032248878515568664
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636

    HYUFD said:

    SNP looking like a majority is possible. Which is a reflection of how shit the opposition is when you consider the growing mess they are making...

    SNP down 10% on constituency vote since 2021 and down 7% on regional list vote on latest poll and SNP did not even win a majority in 2021
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election
    @RochdalePioneers lives in Scotland and has been involved in Scottish politics so I would trust his observatiins before a southern Englishman who has not lived there
    Polling is the same even on Mars
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 271

    Sweeney74 said:



    I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

    Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

    Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

    In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

    Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.
    He doesn't seem to know how to navigate policies through the political system. Saying the Blob is stopping everything is an admission of failure.

    All complex socio-political structures have multiple vested interests. Navigating policies through them is exactly what politicians are for.
    Couldn’t agree more. What astounded me is that once Labour won they almost seemed half surprised and went quiet. They have spent political capital on things they later u-turned on (which is a complete waste of that finite resource).

    I get that the Sunak government had salted the earth. Hunt was no Kenneth Clarke. But, that can’t have been too much of a surprise.

    In politics I always think you’ve got to make your own weather. The Starmer government seems to be content to let itself be blown around by others.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    edited 10:54AM
    Dopermean said:

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/thousands-xl-bullies-at-risk-33581339

    Short version - insurance for XL Bullies (and other breeds) is going away. Which means that the dogs then are subject to seizure and destruction.

    Wasn’t it @rcs1000 who advocated using insurance to limit dangerous dogs?

    Is the mounting cost the number of attacks they're having to pay out on?
    https://www.dogstrust.org.uk/support-us/companion-club/changes

    "Extending our insurance to cover XL Bully type dogs came at a cost. Companion Club subscriptions doubled as owners, who had no other choice to keep their dog safe, joined the scheme. But as companions increased, so did insurance claims, leading to a significant increase in our costs. "

    Looks like hat is the answer

    Maybe @rcs1000 can step in and offer XL Bully insurance at a heroic price?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    edited 10:57AM
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP looking like a majority is possible. Which is a reflection of how shit the opposition is when you consider the growing mess they are making...

    SNP down 10% on constituency vote since 2021 and down 7% on regional list vote on latest poll and SNP did not even win a majority in 2021
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election
    @RochdalePioneers lives in Scotland and has been involved in Scottish politics so I would trust his observatiins before a southern Englishman who has not lived there
    Polling is the same even on Mars
    Todays polls are all over the place but those living in Scotland do not agree with you
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,046
    Nigelb said:

    This guy would last five minutes on PB.

    Miller: There's never, in history, been a more total asymmetric one-sided annihilation of the enemy than you are witnessing and is unfolding right now in Iran. It has been a complete wipeout of their capacity to unleash violence on the world
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032248878515568664

    *cough* Zanzibar *cough*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,636
    edited 10:55AM

    Morning all
    Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

    Ref 27 (-3)
    Con 18 (-1)
    Grn 17 (+2)
    Lab 17 (=)
    LD 14 (=)
    SNP 3 (=)

    That poll gives Reform 319 MPs, the LDs 82, Labour 63, the Greens 55, the Tories 50 and SNP 44.

    So Farage probably PM with DUP and TUV support, he wouldn't even need the Tories (though tactical votes might reduce the Reform number of MPs elected)
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,248
    Nigelb said:

    This guy would last five minutes on PB.

    Miller: There's never, in history, been a more total asymmetric one-sided annihilation of the enemy than you are witnessing and is unfolding right now in Iran. It has been a complete wipeout of their capacity to unleash violence on the world
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032248878515568664

    Although the Straits of Hormuz look a bit burny at times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490

    Sweeney74 said:



    I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

    Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

    Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

    In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

    Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.
    He doesn't seem to know how to navigate policies through the political system. Saying the Blob is stopping everything is an admission of failure.

    All complex socio-political structures have multiple vested interests. Navigating policies through them is exactly what politicians are for.
    Couldn’t agree more. What astounded me is that once Labour won they almost seemed half surprised and went quiet. They have spent political capital on things they later u-turned on (which is a complete waste of that finite resource).

    I get that the Sunak government had salted the earth. Hunt was no Kenneth Clarke. But, that can’t have been too much of a surprise.

    In politics I always think you’ve got to make your own weather. The Starmer government seems to be content to let itself be blown around by others.
    I am just imagining someone telling LBJ that part of the Civil Rights Act would have to be put on the "20 year track" because of concerns by stakeholders.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,622
    edited 10:56AM

    Brixian59 said:

    So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


    Weak weak weak.

    Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Yawn
    Yawn
    Yawn

    Go back to bed then.
    LOL
    Sleep deprivation is a serious issue - can point to sleep apnea. Should get that checked out.
    Actually our eldest suffers from sleep apnea and uses a CPAP nightly
    Doesn't do a lot for your love life, according to a chap on the TV this morning!
    I haven't asked him about that to be fair !!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,200
    We might as well be back to price controls with the level of regulatory micromanagement we've got:

    https://x.com/RachelReevesMP/status/2032401056815091763

    Unjustifiable price hikes for fuel as well as heating oil will not be tolerated.

    The @CMAgovUK have my full backing in using its powers against those seeking to exploit the current situation and its customers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,490
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP looking like a majority is possible. Which is a reflection of how shit the opposition is when you consider the growing mess they are making...

    SNP down 10% on constituency vote since 2021 and down 7% on regional list vote on latest poll and SNP did not even win a majority in 2021
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election
    @RochdalePioneers lives in Scotland and has been involved in Scottish politics so I would trust his observatiins before a southern Englishman who has not lived there
    Polling is the same even on Mars
    The response rates are very low on Mars. Which makes MOE very large.
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