War? What is good for? Helping Starmer improve his ratings? – politicalbetting.com
War? What is good for? Helping Starmer improve his ratings? – politicalbetting.com
? ?? vs?? Most Brits now want a Love Actually moment from Keir Starmer. In Jan 2025, Brits were more likely to say Starmer should prioritise working with Trump than standing up to him. Today that has flipped 55% think priority is standing up to Trump, just 27% working with him
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Good morning, everyone.
I'm interested in Kemi's barefaced reverse ferret, when joining Trump's war was an absolute implication of her call to intervene more directly.
But I've never seen the film, either.
Update: It does not involve chaps in chaps. That would be Brokeback Mountain - possibly.
Thats the sort of mulch Jilly Cooper horse shit we apparently hanker for
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMJcZpvyNok
➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (+4)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 11% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,112 | 6-9/3| Change w 2/03
A much reviled film.
Also it is the only Christmas film Alan Rickman starred in, in his entire career.
Labour were at 21 2 weeks ago and 22 3 weeks ago so this is a reversion to long term mean with MiC plus a smidgen with a small Starmer boost
And the Yule ball at Hogwarts says hi
Not as badly as, say, Love Thy Neighbour, but a sign of how the world changes.
You can't simply take an average and say that is the right answer. One methodology is going to end up being more accurate than another, and it's impossible in advance to say which.
It's the difference between Reform largest party / potential majority and them having a similar number of seats as a few other parties.
🚴🚴🚴🚴
Again Reform within a whisker of second place. I suspect it will be Labour vs Tory gunning for first place soon.
He should take the flack from Trump and wear it with pride, it will do him more political good than anything else he or his government has done, well, ever actually.
My critique of Starmer and indeed the other European nations is that they have not gone far enough. They should have made it clear that there was no legal basis for this war, that it was and is a criminal act and that they disapprove of what both the US and Israel have done. After the Greenland fiasco Europe needs to stop aligning with the US by default. If they want a rules based system to survive they need to speak up for it. And that includes calling out your erstwhile friends when they act badly.
Up to that moment they believed I was a good Muslim who was focussing on his career.
LD and Con are probably the most tightly modelled
Labour and Con are neck and neck. On that basis, I'd rather be the red team than the blue. Libs are probably doing fine where they want to, having opted out of the national game. Greens have come out of nowhere, and I don't think anyone really knows how well they are doing.
Hereditary peers to be removed from the House of Lords after deal struck
Agreement broke a months-long impasse over
Sir Keir Starmer has cleared the way for removing hereditary peerages from the House of Lords after a deal was struck to offer extra spots to some of those who will lose their seats within months.
A compromise was reached that The Times has been told will see 15 Conservative Party members of the House of Lords, whose positions were passed down by bloodline, continue as life peers.
The agreement broke a months-long impasse over one of the biggest constitutional reforms in decades, as peers agreed to let the legislation pass its final stage without a vote on Tuesday night.
The Lords agreed with the Commons on a final draft of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) bill.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-hereditary-peerages-deal-house-of-lords-mxnf60hl0
So yesterday the Austrian Authorities impounded one of their planes at Linz.
https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3345166/
Or should that be floors...
1) After May's locals
and
2) When a few Labour MPs defect
Edit - clearly as I've got older I've reached the point where - this is what I want, what compromises do I need to give to achieve that.
It is an appalling film enjoyed by dreadful, dreary people. I have no words to adequately express my contempt.
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.
I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.
Here's what I can share. Maybe the lead is that the war goals DO NOT involve destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program. This is, uh...surprising...since Trump says over and over this is a key goal.
But then of course we already know air strikes can't wipe out their nuclear material.
Second, they confirmed "regime change" is also NOT on the list. So, they are going to spend hundreds of billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of Americans killed, and a hardline regime - probably a MORE anti-American hardline regime - will still be in charge.
Ok, so what ARE the goals? It seems, primarily, destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories.
But the question that stumped them: what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production?
They hinted at more bombing. Which is, of course, endless war.
And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open.
Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable
Until now Iran has been allowed to make all the moves.
Suspect there may be a few rejects after May looking for a new home.
Starmer should have had it done by Christmas Day 2024.
(Checks - Aha May 2026. I trust they won't have access to the premises any more.)
The thing that bugs me most is that surely there should be a comma in 'love actually', and yet there is not, actually?
The grift opportunities are endless
The PM having direct control over the composition of the second chamber is not good
As of late 2024, there are 92 "excepted" hereditary peers sitting in the House of Lords, with affiliation:
Conservative Party (approx. 45)
Crossbenchers (approx. 30–33)
Labour (3-4)
Liberal Democrat (3-4) peers
along with a few non-affiliated members.
Hopefully the judge is on holiday this week, so the plane stays stuck there for a few days.
So 1979-2024 Iran makes all the moves.
2025 Israel and the USA start making their own moves.
He’s a good actor though, he played Jeremy Thorpe brilliantly.
I expect Kemi will take that leading all other leaders
https://x.com/i/status/2031645406992400873
1.20 Skylight Hustle and Sortudo
2.00 Western Fold and Kocktail Divin
4.40 Relieved of Duties
Very tough day for punters today
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2031645364495761864
Amid all the talk of oil tankers and container ships, I can see from my window at least three large cruise ships docked at Port Rashid in Dubai. They’ve been there for 10 days now. Must be costing someone an absolute fortune in lost revenue, even if the passengers on board have been evacuated. They’ll also need a serious naval escort to get out of the Gulf, whenever there’s agreement on when it’s safe to move.
Whatever the fate of polls and petrol prices, it was a wonderful opening day to the Cheltenham Festival yesterday and for a change I managed to find a couple of winners - obviously, @MoonRabbit found all seven, I imagine, or that's what I was led to believe.
Day Two beckons and another stellar card and if you want to read my innermost cerebral musings, I post a more detailed summation of the main races on racecafe.co.nz
I won't post all that here cos it's boring for those strange people who aren't horse racing fans and cut to the chase (or hurdle or indeed bumper) with today's selections:
Turners Novices Hurdle: BALLYFAD
Brown Advisory Chase: THE BIG WESTERNER (win), OSCAR'S BROTHER (each way)
Queen Mother Champion Chase: QUILIXIOS (each way)
Champion Bumper: KEEP HIM COMPANY
Yousef Pezeshkian writes on Telegram that he had "heard reports" that the supreme leader had been injured.
"I asked several friends who had relevant contacts, and they said that: by the grace of God, he is safe and there is no problem," he says."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd70wzw9vqlt
The likes of Wycombe, Peterborough, Welwyn Hatfield, Banbury
Then on to the likes of South Norfolk, Suffolk Coastal, Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket.
By contrast I don't think Farage's initial support for the strikes damaged him at all, given the median Reform voter wants the UK to allow its bases to be used for both defensive and offensive operations by the US and most Reform voters agree with Trump that Starmer is 'no Winston Churchill'. If anything Farage showing reservations about UK involvement in the conflict is moving him away from his more hawklike voters. Although he can also say only a quarter of Reform voters want the UK RAF to take part in the strikes themselves.
The Greens are the only party where most of its voters say the UK should take no part in the conflict at all and not allow its bases to be used, so Polanski's position matches his voters there. The median LD and Tory voter though says the UK should allow its bases to be used for defensive operations only so Starmer is actually closer to LD and Tory voters than Davey's outright opposition to UK involvement in the conflict and Kemi's backing using the RAF to strike Iranian missile launchers is. So Starmer's poll bounce may continue if he can squeeze the LD and Conservative vote a bit further
I wonder why ?