On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..
Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.
If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >
43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump
Thats extinction level
It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.
More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!
Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.
The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.
The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
Twelve Bunny Bridges. How much you asking?
Can we agree, so many seasoned, experienced Conservative elder states people in Parliament, stood up against it and explained why, and weren’t even listened to? from Con samples in polling, Con voters about 50/50 split on this? The Conservative Party, and what’s left of support in the country, are not united behind Kemi on what’s she’s done over the last 9 days?
As example, look what happened to Labour after their daft “opposition party” clear water over Salisbury. The voters could clearly see Corbyn’s Labour wrong call, and hated it. And Labours wrong call then didn’t even come with a Nuclear Sized Credit Crisis Bomb for every voters household and business, based on the wrong call.
Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January
That doesn't fit the narrative
The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !
The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
We'll know Reform are done for when Leon gets bored with them.
Do you think he will go back to voting for Labour/Starmer like he did in 2024?
Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January
Almost a week out of date.
Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.
As do several topic specific polls
43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.
Citing a very modest rise to 21% is frankly, pretty desperate.
When you've hit the bottom and bounce back slightly it's significant.
The dying Tories are till to reach their base level, possibly sub 12%
The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.
You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.
Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.
One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.
In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.
Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
More like an Australian. In the last millenium and a half the most destruction to the Jerusalem Holy Sites has come from New South Wales. Little or none from Iran or other Islamic states.
Classical Islamic law contains strong prohibitions against damaging sacred sites. In particular, destroying or damaging the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock is considered a grave sin by virtually all Islamic scholars. The Quran (22:40) explicitly calls for the protection of "monasteries, churches, synagogues, and mosques" where God's name is remembered. Jurists like al-Shaybani agree that Islam prohibits the destruction of religious sites even during legitimate armed conflict. That's doubly true for one of the 3 Holy Sites.
This is backed up by Islamic tradition and actions. When Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab originally entered Jerusalem in 637 CE he issued a covenant (the 'Covenant of Umar') guaranteeing the safety of the city's inhabitants, their property, and their churches. Similarly, Saladin's recapture of Jerusalem in 1187 is similarly noted for its restraint and protection of the city's holy sites.
Damage since then has been caused by the Crusades (1099–1187), the Arab-Israeli war (1948), and an an Australian called Michael Dennis Rohan who in 1969 walked in and set fire to the mosque, destroying an 800 year old pulpit, a gift from Saladin. Rohan was an Evangelical Christian who believed he was bringing about the Second Coming of Christ by allowing the Jews to rebuild the Temple. Which, of course, was last destroyed by a bunch of Italians.
Bit weird how Muslims went and blew up the Bamiyan buddhas then. Or tore down all those Syrian churches. Or blasted all of Palmyra, temples and tombs, to the dusty desert ground
Maybe they weren't "real" Muslims, like no true Scotsman and all that
Remarkably. That poll puts the Conservatives as SIXTH largest Party in seats.
If you put it in electoral calculas it gives 373 seats for reform, labour down 344 seats to 68, lib dem 54 and conservatives 33
If you think that will be the result I am sure you will get excellent odds
And 52 Green. 44 SNP. I never said I believed it would be the result. However, it does just show how precarious the positions of Labour and the Tories are. And just how low Reform can go and still win a majority if no one else breaks free of the pack.
And if there is no anti Reform tactical voting but there likely will be. Nonetheless overall a good Opinium poll for Farage, even if 1% down still enough on its own for a Reform majority and Starmer as Labour break free of the pack and squeeze the Tories and LDs a little and remain well ahead of the Greens with Starmer's keeping out of US and Israeli offensive strikes on Iran
Whats that about Starmer keeping out of US offensive strikes on Iran with 4 B1 bombers each with a payload of 24 cruise missiles is readying to fly and attack Iran from Fairford ?
They are not allowed to strike Tehran buildings only missile launchers
You cannot be so naive to believe that surely
BigG, another of your good questions I gave an answer to, but you probably missed it quite sensibly gone to bed. You asked How "Defensive Only" is Policed and proven.
In such a technological age, it’s not too difficult to see through the fog of war on these things - hence the US knew it had killed all the schoolgirls in that one attack… until Trump claimed it was Iran what done it. Bottom line, you wrre not just calling HY naive, Saudi Arabia and Oman and Turkey were at the time in exactly same place as Starmer’s Defensive Only, And Head of UK Military was asked the question at weekend if he is sure US are sticking to it, and he answered yes, 100%.
specific mission departing receives approval to ensure it aligns with the agreed "defensive" mandate. It’s then monitored in numerous ways.
* Intelligence and Surveillance (ISR): Host nations use their own intelligence assets to monitor the types of aircraft, munitions, and flight plans of U.S. forces leaving their bases. * Air Traffic Control (ATC): Host country military personnel in control towers can track the flight paths and destinations of aircraft to ensure they are not heading for unauthorized targets. * Operational Liaison Officers: Joint operations centers often feature liaison officers from the host nation who monitor real-time operations and verify that they comply with the agreed restrictions.
Why cheat and wind up relations even more. There’s got to be a long list and lots of work on defensive targets - missile infrastructure that threatens regional allies - to get through anyway?
They really arn’t that naive. And stop calling them Shirley.
Allowing B1s to fly from Fairford with upto 28 cruise missiles dropped in Iran is somehow defensive ?
I refer the gentleman’s glib ‘non answer’ to the reasoned and detailed explanation I gave in the previous post to his 😇
HY - you are in the clear. You can come out the tank now.
Keir Starmer warns that the longer the Iran conflict goes on, the greater the impact on the domestic economy.
"You will sense I think, that the longer this goes on, the more likely the potential for an impact on our economy, impact into the lives and households of everybody and every business.
“And our job is to get ahead of that, to look around the corner, assess the risk, monitor the risks, and work with others in relation to that.”
File under "PM Insights: No Shit, Sherlock..."
"Get ahead of that". Try firing Ed Miliband. Oh you can't, because then he'd be working to unseat you as PM.
Why would he fire Ed Miliband whose renewables vision will save the UK whilst Kemi and Farage lick Trumps oily ass
Ed is ridiculously blinkered.
It's the oil and gas dinosaurs who are blinkered.
Yep let's start drilling... Wait 5 years and sell it where?
International market
Oh hang on.
Are you really so stupid that you ignore the billions of tax revenue the government would and should receive over the next 20 years
Explain why Norway good - UK bad
The Norwegian oil and gas industry is not fully nationalized, but it is heavily controlled by the state through a hybrid model. The state owns all resource rights, holds a 67% stake in Equinor, and maintains direct financial interests in fields and infrastructure via Petoro. Oil revenues are channeled into a sovereign wealth fund, which held an estimated $1.2 trillion in assets by 2020, intended to benefit the nation long-term. It set this fund up in 1990. By that point UK had already privatised its Oil and Gas from North Sea in Lady Thatchers visionally scheme that nearly tripled the number of individual shareholders in UK, and made us the successful share owning democracy we are today. However, a bit of a downside, while UK and Norway have produced similar total volumes of oil and gas over the years, their financial outcomes differ by quite a bit. In 2018, for example, Norway generated roughly 34 times more oil tax revenue than the UK. It varies year to year, but UK had only been making about 3 or 4 billion recently. The reason why it’s hot political argument is if we do nothing, no new “drilling” government income drops to only about £300M by the end of this decade. But, the reason it’s not a cut and dried argument to drill, even if we do what Farage and Kemi demand, it will only bring in an extra £1.5B a year, this is because of all the tax breaks required in order to to make it happen. In fact some economists argue it won’t even make extra revenue for UK, but a loss. Hope this helps give some sort of answer to that question.
The Government is currently on the hook for about £30 billion in abandonment costs. The longer we can keep platforms functioning the better.
Also Oil and Gas was not privatised - with the exception of the small Britoil company. It was always overwhelmingly private.
The current estimate for recoverable reserves in the UKCS is around 15 billion barrels (low end is 10 billion, high is 20 billion). That compares with total historic UKCS production of around 38 billion BOE.
As I have mentioned before Norway drilled 49 exploration wells last year. The UK drilled none. They also drilled almost a hundred production wells. The UK drilled less than a dozen. Government revenue from Oil and Gas is currently running at around 500 billion NOK a year and the Norwegian Finance Ministry said at the end of 2024 that Oil and Gas production would be worth 10 Trillion NOK to the Norwegian economy over the next 30 years.
Remarkably. That poll puts the Conservatives as SIXTH largest Party in seats.
If you put it in electoral calculas it gives 373 seats for reform, labour down 344 seats to 68, lib dem 54 and conservatives 33
If you think that will be the result I am sure you will get excellent odds
And 52 Green. 44 SNP. I never said I believed it would be the result. However, it does just show how precarious the positions of Labour and the Tories are. And just how low Reform can go and still win a majority if no one else breaks free of the pack.
And if there is no anti Reform tactical voting but there likely will be. Nonetheless overall a good Opinium poll for Farage, even if 1% down still enough on its own for a Reform majority and Starmer as Labour break free of the pack and squeeze the Tories and LDs a little and remain well ahead of the Greens with Starmer's keeping out of US and Israeli offensive strikes on Iran
Whats that about Starmer keeping out of US offensive strikes on Iran with 4 B1 bombers each with a payload of 24 cruise missiles is readying to fly and attack Iran from Fairford ?
They are not allowed to strike Tehran buildings only missile launchers
You cannot be so naive to believe that surely
BigG, another of your good questions I gave an answer to, but you probably missed it quite sensibly gone to bed. You asked How "Defensive Only" is Policed and proven.
In such a technological age, it’s not too difficult to see through the fog of war on these things - hence the US knew it had killed all the schoolgirls in that one attack… until Trump claimed it was Iran what done it. Bottom line, you wrre not just calling HY naive, Saudi Arabia and Oman and Turkey were at the time in exactly same place as Starmer’s Defensive Only, And Head of UK Military was asked the question at weekend if he is sure US are sticking to it, and he answered yes, 100%.
specific mission departing receives approval to ensure it aligns with the agreed "defensive" mandate. It’s then monitored in numerous ways.
* Intelligence and Surveillance (ISR): Host nations use their own intelligence assets to monitor the types of aircraft, munitions, and flight plans of U.S. forces leaving their bases. * Air Traffic Control (ATC): Host country military personnel in control towers can track the flight paths and destinations of aircraft to ensure they are not heading for unauthorized targets. * Operational Liaison Officers: Joint operations centers often feature liaison officers from the host nation who monitor real-time operations and verify that they comply with the agreed restrictions.
Why cheat and wind up relations even more. There’s got to be a long list and lots of work on defensive targets - missile infrastructure that threatens regional allies - to get through anyway?
They really arn’t that naive. And stop calling them Shirley.
Allowing B1s to fly from Fairford with upto 28 cruise missiles dropped in Iran is somehow defensive ?
I refer the gentleman’s glib ‘non answer’ to the reasoned and detailed explanation I gave in the previous post to his 😇
HY - you are in the clear. You can come out the tank now.
Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January
Almost a week out of date.
Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.
As do several topic specific polls
43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.
Citing a very modest rise to 21% is frankly, pretty desperate.
When you've hit the bottom and bounce back slightly it's significant.
The dying Tories are till to reach their base level, possibly sub 12%
I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile
What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite
The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick
I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero
Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -
"A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."
It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.
Ah, that's good to hear!
Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that
As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse
Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
Apparently the trend of getting more conservative as they age is coming to an end - millenials are remaining left/liberal, by and large.
Well of course. Have you seen these people? The drop in IQ across the west, and beyond, is not a statistical quirk, it is real and accelerating
"Research Confirms It: We Really Are Getting Dumber"
On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..
Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.
If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >
43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump
Thats extinction level
It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.
More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!
Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.
The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.
The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..
Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.
If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >
43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump
Thats extinction level
It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.
More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!
Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.
The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.
The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
I’m so excited about the race for second in NEV in the upcoming local elections
Every Tory MP is solely concerned by this momentous event
The LibDems should win that easily. They always out-perform their opinion poll ratings in the NEV for the locals.
With a good night for the Greens, Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck for fourth and fifth.
That would be very funny. I was going to say it wold be worth staying up for but I assume this new trend of not counting until the next day will continue
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I’m so excited about the race for second in NEV in the upcoming local elections
Every Tory MP is solely concerned by this momentous event
The LibDems should win that easily. They always out-perform their opinion poll ratings in the NEV for the locals.
With a good night for the Greens, Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck for fourth and fifth.
The Greens wont stand everywhere so their NEV will be crap LDs finished behind Con and Lab last yesr with Thrasher and have gone slightly backwards since
Don't be silly. It was a projection, and you know it!
Oi. Give BigG the link. He needs cheering up.
I do not need cheering up, not least because after a punishing and thorough medical from my geriatric (yes correct title) I have been given a good report though I need to take care with my limited mobility
When you experience a sudden life threatening illness and you are saved by the expertise of urgent medical intervention each day is one to be grateful for
Also as my wife says I can wind people up on occasions no doubt even on here
And by the way, I do not have to agree with you and quite often don't
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We took steps from January, weeks before this action began to reposition typhoons, F35s, drone teams, radar and defence in the region
We do not work alone, but we are leading and co-ordinating our response with our NATO allies and partners including the US other nations and the Gulf States
As others have very calmly and factually said over and over again on PB, no lack of preparation, no tardiness by UK.
Contrary to Tory lies.
The key point.
Labour unlike Tories and Reform standing up to Trump.
Labour unlike LD and Greens, acting defensively and proportionately.
Starmer has got this spot on so far.
You are just wrong
Labour are very much fighting this war with the US, NATO, and our Middle East allies
Starmer said no to US airbase use, but within 48 hours gave that permission including Fairford and Diego Garcia allowing B1 to deliver their payload of upto 28 cruise missiles into Iran
As of this moment where is Starmer standing up to Trump
Of course he is not, neither is Merz, Macron, the Gulf States and others who are all actively engaged in this conflict
Our bases and our own military only being used for defensive missions, whilst a quarter of UK very angry British troops are just hanging around, including a key influencer of public opinion who stated as much.
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
Don't be silly. It was a projection, and you know it!
Oi. Give BigG the link. He needs cheering up.
He needs an FoN poll with Reform, Green and Tory all duking it out on 25% each.
For that matter don't we all?
To be honest day to day polls in such a fast moving drama are hard to keep up with events, and will see saw depending on events, outcomes, and consequences
WFH today because of the Central station fire, you realise the options for getting to Glasgow city centre from Ayrshire are, um, a bit shite.
I can drive to near the edge of the city centre (and then park and ride subway in the rest of the way), which involves sitting on the ribbon of joy that is the M8 leading up to the city centre. It's a car park at the best of rush-hour times made even worse by the fact there's been major roadworks on it since September with average speed cameras and half the normal number of usable lanes.
I can get the bus, where the service has been so hollowed out (to the point it nearly stopped entirely other than because a big protest stopped it) that last two options for leaving the city centre will be just after 4pm and just after 5pm and they will be so full (given no trains) that there is a real risk of there not being enough space to get on it.
I can get the train to Paisley and hope either for a train replacement bus service for the remainder of the way (which is always a shit show given number of commuters to number of buses and members of staff generally not really knowing what's going on, which isn't there fault, but, still...) or a regular bus in Paisley going to Glasgow that will (again, because the service is so hollowed out) take a massively circuitous route to get there because the service is trying to cover a number of different routes that all got amalgamated to one, so will take fecking ages to go a small number of miles.
Or I can work from home, which I absolutely detest but is by far the easiest of the options.
I'm lucky that I have as many of these options but most of them are still horrible. Hopefully the station is back up and running relatively soon, though I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few weeks of not much happening on that front.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
Have you been given an embargoed copy? Weren't they down about four last time? They'll be in negative numbers at that rate!😢
I cant see them being lower than last weeks 16% A modest recovery perhaps
I read this blog called Politicalbetting.com and my understanding from the experts on there is Starmer is having a mare of a war, whilst Badenoch is calling it right. Farage tying himself up in knots too.
I’m so excited about the race for second in NEV in the upcoming local elections
Every Tory MP is solely concerned by this momentous event
The LibDems should win that easily. They always out-perform their opinion poll ratings in the NEV for the locals.
With a good night for the Greens, Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck for fourth and fifth.
That would be very funny. I was going to say it wold be worth staying up for but I assume this new trend of not counting until the next day will continue
I hope Bradford counts on Friday. I want to go to bed!
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
You are usually more accurate than that
35% is quite margin under less than half
Actually 21% labour pro Trump is higher than I would have expected
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
Loosing Congress might slow him down, but there is no way for the Democrats to get enough seats in the Senate to stop him. They might win a very, very narrow majority - but that will just become gridlocked.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
Yes, I agree with aspects of this.
Rather like Putin in the Ukraine, Trump has embarked on this adventure under a completely false premise, Putin thought his forces would sweep aside the Ukrainian army, no one would fight for a comedian like Zelenskyy and within 72 hours the Russian Army would be in Kyiv and Lviv.
Trump must have convinced himself a few bombs and missile strikes would bring the Iranian people onto the streets and topple the theocracy.
Both men share an inate stupidity anf the rest of the world will pay for their grotesque ineptitude,
However, as with Ukraine, a new stability or equilibrium will be reached. Oil is already dropping back towards $90 a barrel and I suspect will go lower absent anything else happening. As for shortages, re-opening Hormuz and getting Persian Gulf production re-started will happen once it becomes clear for now Iran may have the will but not the means to do anything about it.
The question then becomes how long will it take Tehran to re-build its drone and missile capability and we go through all this again.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
There’s a theory that he’s already dead and they just announced him as leader to take the heat off and avoid a cycle of assassinations.
The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.
You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.
Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.
One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.
In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.
Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
More like an Australian. In the last millenium and a half the most destruction to the Jerusalem Holy Sites has come from New South Wales. Little or none from Iran or other Islamic states.
Classical Islamic law contains strong prohibitions against damaging sacred sites. In particular, destroying or damaging the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock is considered a grave sin by virtually all Islamic scholars. The Quran (22:40) explicitly calls for the protection of "monasteries, churches, synagogues, and mosques" where God's name is remembered. Jurists like al-Shaybani agree that Islam prohibits the destruction of religious sites even during legitimate armed conflict. That's doubly true for one of the 3 Holy Sites.
This is backed up by Islamic tradition and actions. When Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab originally entered Jerusalem in 637 CE he issued a covenant (the 'Covenant of Umar') guaranteeing the safety of the city's inhabitants, their property, and their churches. Similarly, Saladin's recapture of Jerusalem in 1187 is similarly noted for its restraint and protection of the city's holy sites.
Damage since then has been caused by the Crusades (1099–1187), the Arab-Israeli war (1948), and an an Australian called Michael Dennis Rohan who in 1969 walked in and set fire to the mosque, destroying an 800 year old pulpit, a gift from Saladin. Rohan was an Evangelical Christian who believed he was bringing about the Second Coming of Christ by allowing the Jews to rebuild the Temple. Which, of course, was last destroyed by a bunch of Italians.
Bit weird how Muslims went and blew up the Bamiyan buddhas then. Or tore down all those Syrian churches. Or blasted all of Palmyra, temples and tombs, to the dusty desert ground
Maybe they weren't "real" Muslims, like no true Scotsman and all that
That has about as much intellectual coherence as someone praising the Christianity of Martin Luther King and being rebutted with a reference to Hernán Cortés.
I don't think you're sure when your writing declined. You were in your Camden flat , nothing special, quite desirable, firing off screeds. Then the fragments started. Like this. And this. Then, cornered by actual historical evidence, you reached for whataboutism and the No True Scotsman fallacy, simultaneously. That's efficient. Most people need two paragraphs to be that wrong. You did it in three sentences. Someone points out that the main damage to Jerusalem's holy sites came from New South Wales, and you go: "Bit weird how Muslims blew up the Bamiyan Buddhas."
That's not a rebuttal. That's not even a counter-argument. That's you pointing at a completely different country, a completely different century, a completely different group, and going "yeah but THEM though." You didn't engage the argument. You didn't address the sources. You just lobbed a whatabout match and legged it, like an Australian in a mosque, leaving behind only a faint smell of scorched logic and the ghost of a No True Scotsman fallacy.
You write under innumerable pseudonyms. Apparently none of them can follow a thread.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
A big problem is he is largely free to act and abuse power, and it will take a long time for anything to make it's way to the top court, even if they expedite matters, and unlike perhaps previous presidents Trump doesn't stop what he is doing in the meantime, even if a Court tells him to, and that's just not fast enough action to constrain him, even when the court is inclined to do so (obviously several never would be, depending how much money goes into Thomas's pockets at least).
Have you been given an embargoed copy? Weren't they down about four last time? They'll be in negative numbers at that rate!😢
I cant see them being lower than last weeks 16% A modest recovery perhaps
I read this blog called Politicalbetting.com and my understanding from the experts on there is Starmer is having a mare of a war, whilst Badenoch is calling it right. Farage tying himself up in knots too.
Any direct read across of YG or other polling on 'Yee Haw or Kumbaya' to VI expectation is misguided It will be ancilliary effects that shift the dial, if anything
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
The appointment is controversial especially as his dad didn’t want what would look like a monarchic succession. This shows the strength of the IRGC who were supporting Mojtaba Khamenei .
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.
You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.
Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.
One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.
In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.
Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
More like an Australian. In the last millenium and a half the most destruction to the Jerusalem Holy Sites has come from New South Wales. Little or none from Iran or other Islamic states.
Classical Islamic law contains strong prohibitions against damaging sacred sites. In particular, destroying or damaging the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock is considered a grave sin by virtually all Islamic scholars. The Quran (22:40) explicitly calls for the protection of "monasteries, churches, synagogues, and mosques" where God's name is remembered. Jurists like al-Shaybani agree that Islam prohibits the destruction of religious sites even during legitimate armed conflict. That's doubly true for one of the 3 Holy Sites.
This is backed up by Islamic tradition and actions. When Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab originally entered Jerusalem in 637 CE he issued a covenant (the 'Covenant of Umar') guaranteeing the safety of the city's inhabitants, their property, and their churches. Similarly, Saladin's recapture of Jerusalem in 1187 is similarly noted for its restraint and protection of the city's holy sites.
Damage since then has been caused by the Crusades (1099–1187), the Arab-Israeli war (1948), and an an Australian called Michael Dennis Rohan who in 1969 walked in and set fire to the mosque, destroying an 800 year old pulpit, a gift from Saladin. Rohan was an Evangelical Christian who believed he was bringing about the Second Coming of Christ by allowing the Jews to rebuild the Temple. Which, of course, was last destroyed by a bunch of Italians.
Bit weird how Muslims went and blew up the Bamiyan buddhas then. Or tore down all those Syrian churches. Or blasted all of Palmyra, temples and tombs, to the dusty desert ground
Maybe they weren't "real" Muslims, like no true Scotsman and all that
That has about as much intellectual coherence as someone praising the Christianity of Martin Luther King and being rebutted with a reference to Hernán Cortés.
I don't think you're sure when your writing declined. You were in your Camden flat , nothing special, quite desirable, firing off screeds. Then the fragments started. Like this. And this. Then, cornered by actual historical evidence, you reached for whataboutism and the No True Scotsman fallacy, simultaneously. That's efficient. Most people need two paragraphs to be that wrong. You did it in three sentences. Someone points out that the main damage to Jerusalem's holy sites came from New South Wales, and you go: "Bit weird how Muslims blew up the Bamiyan Buddhas."
That's not a rebuttal. That's not even a counter-argument. That's you pointing at a completely different country, a completely different century, a completely different group, and going "yeah but THEM though." You didn't engage the argument. You didn't address the sources. You just lobbed a whatabout match and legged it, like an Australian in a mosque, leaving behind only a faint smell of scorched logic and the ghost of a No True Scotsman fallacy.
You write under innumerable pseudonyms. Apparently none of them can follow a thread.
I'm sorry I flattened your entire, pompous, self-satisfied argument with, as you noticed, two short paragraphs of basic facts. I can feel the seethe
9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began
Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.
That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.
The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.
I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?
If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.
I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.
On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
Removing Mullahs- definitely a good thing. However this is a war of choice, and the choice has been made by Trump, recklessly unprepared, so I fear that there are few good outcomes from this.
I don't disagree with any of that.
I would have more faith if this were a war being launched by practically any other POTUS ever . . . And with the support of the UK and other allies who could push for the right agenda to be followed.
However that is not the case and we are where we are.
And the war I would prefer is not an option, so a reckless Trump initiated war or no war at all . . . Well sadly the former is all that is available to us to see the removal of the Mullahs being even a possibility.
If something has a very low possibility of success and a known, definite cost, then it's probably not worth doing.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
Loosing Congress might slow him down, but there is no way for the Democrats to get enough seats in the Senate to stop him. They might win a very, very narrow majority - but that will just become gridlocked.
It doesn't matter if you fiddle the elections to Congress if you are going to ignore Congress anyway.
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
You are usually more accurate than that
35% is quite margin under less than half
Actually 21% labour pro Trump is higher than I would have expected
Indeed, most Tory voters are anti Trump though, while a plurality of Reform voters are pro Trump, so Kemi has to be careful not to be seen as Farage lite in her support for Trump's strikes on Iran. SKS also knows the left, especially Greens, still see him as too close to POTUS
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
As long as he was chosen by God rather than primogeniture or salic law, then it is fine.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
The appointment is controversial especially as his dad didn’t want what would look like a monarchic succession. This shows the strength of the IRGC who were supporting Mojtaba Khamenei .
Perhaps because they see him as a figurehead who will say yes to everything they want?
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
Don't forget the fertiliser shortage too. The gulf makes and exports quite a bit and we need it over the next few months,
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
As long as he was chosen by God rather than primogeniture or salic law, then it is fine.
As convincing as the Mount Paektu bloodline being chosen on merit.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
Loosing Congress might slow him down, but there is no way for the Democrats to get enough seats in the Senate to stop him. They might win a very, very narrow majority - but that will just become gridlocked.
If the Republicans do badly enough, however, they may realise that they're better off without Trump and a few Republican Senators may grow a spine.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
Loosing Congress might slow him down, but there is no way for the Democrats to get enough seats in the Senate to stop him. They might win a very, very narrow majority - but that will just become gridlocked.
It doesn't matter if you fiddle the elections to Congress if you are going to ignore Congress anyway.
(Roll_Safe.gif)
Not quite.
- you gerrymander - you fiddle the elections *as much as you can* - you ignore the lower courts and congress as much as you can
Trumpism is a series of layers. Each one gets you part of the way there.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
You are 1-2 years younger than me @Leon and your liver is almost certainly in worse shape. We can leave the brain cells for others to judge. Retirement, thankfully, is a few years away yet, hopefully for us both.
9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began
Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.
That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.
The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.
I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?
If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.
I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.
On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
Removing Mullahs- definitely a good thing. However this is a war of choice, and the choice has been made by Trump, recklessly unprepared, so I fear that there are few good outcomes from this.
I don't disagree with any of that.
I would have more faith if this were a war being launched by practically any other POTUS ever . . . And with the support of the UK and other allies who could push for the right agenda to be followed.
However that is not the case and we are where we are.
And the war I would prefer is not an option, so a reckless Trump initiated war or no war at all . . . Well sadly the former is all that is available to us to see the removal of the Mullahs being even a possibility.
A bad war is better than no war? - I don't think we want the world to be operating on that basis.
Surely that depends upon the consequences of no war and the consequences of a sub-optimal war?
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
There’s a theory that he’s already dead and they just announced him as leader to take the heat off and avoid a cycle of assassinations.
This is quite a plausible argument because the Iranians must be terrified of
1. Israeli penetration of the Iranian elite at the deepest possible level - how did the Jews know where and when to strike with such brutal yet precise force, they killed everyone at the top in Tehran in half an hour? Maybe they were helped by djinns?
Also
2. America, which now has next level military tech: this is becoming obvious. See the exfiltration of Maduro. Without losing a man. This does not mean America is almighty and invulnerable - it can't totally defend its allies in the GCC and Shahed drones, which cost sixpence, are causing real pain. Nonetheless there does seem to have been a mysterious quantum leap in America's ability to exert power at a distance
Who would want to be the next Iranian leader in this context? Not me. It's like being the next Spinal Tap drummer
On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..
Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.
If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >
43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump
Thats extinction level
It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.
More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!
Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.
The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.
The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
Who counts as a neutral commentator, out of interest?
I am neutral You are biased He/She/They/It has been banned by Ofcom for partisanship
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
The worst thing now would be a wounded theocratic Iran rising from the ashes, set on revenge.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
You are usually more accurate than that
35% is quite margin under less than half
Actually 21% labour pro Trump is higher than I would have expected
Indeed, most Tory voters are anti Trump though, while a plurality of Reform voters are pro Trump, so Kemi has to be careful not to be seen as Farage lite in her support for Trump's strikes on Iran. SKS also knows the left, especially Greens, still see him as too close to POTUS
As Trump gets visibly more unhinged by the day, any data from opinion polls need to be clearly identified as historical only.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
One of the experts on the BBC discussion last night made that point - that the theological structure of the Revolution was explicitly against the hereditary inheritance of power. And that by doing this, the IRGC had broken a fundamental tenant of the system.
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
You are usually more accurate than that
35% is quite margin under less than half
Actually 21% labour pro Trump is higher than I would have expected
Indeed, most Tory voters are anti Trump though, while a plurality of Reform voters are pro Trump, so Kemi has to be careful not to be seen as Farage lite in her support for Trump's strikes on Iran. SKS also knows the left, especially Greens, still see him as too close to POTUS
As Trump gets visibly more unhinged by the day, any data from opinion polls need to be clearly identified as historical only.
That presupposes him to have been hinged at some point
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
You are 1-2 years younger than me @Leon and your liver is almost certainly in worse shape. We can leave the brain cells for others to judge. Retirement, thankfully, is a few years away yet, hopefully for us both.
Stop saying stupid things. Then I shan't have cause to upbraid you
9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began
Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.
That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.
The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.
I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?
If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.
I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.
On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
Removing Mullahs- definitely a good thing. However this is a war of choice, and the choice has been made by Trump, recklessly unprepared, so I fear that there are few good outcomes from this.
I don't disagree with any of that.
I would have more faith if this were a war being launched by practically any other POTUS ever . . . And with the support of the UK and other allies who could push for the right agenda to be followed.
However that is not the case and we are where we are.
And the war I would prefer is not an option, so a reckless Trump initiated war or no war at all . . . Well sadly the former is all that is available to us to see the removal of the Mullahs being even a possibility.
A bad war is better than no war? - I don't think we want the world to be operating on that basis.
Surely that depends upon the consequences of no war and the consequences of a sub-optimal war?
No war and the Mullahs survive.
War is not the only way that the regime changes. At times, Iran has been looking as if it might peacefully transition to a more democratic model (as has happened in several countries). Iran might have an internal coup.
9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began
Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.
That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.
The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.
I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?
If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.
I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.
On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
Removing Mullahs- definitely a good thing. However this is a war of choice, and the choice has been made by Trump, recklessly unprepared, so I fear that there are few good outcomes from this.
I don't disagree with any of that.
I would have more faith if this were a war being launched by practically any other POTUS ever . . . And with the support of the UK and other allies who could push for the right agenda to be followed.
However that is not the case and we are where we are.
And the war I would prefer is not an option, so a reckless Trump initiated war or no war at all . . . Well sadly the former is all that is available to us to see the removal of the Mullahs being even a possibility.
If something has a very low possibility of success and a known, definite cost, then it's probably not worth doing.
So it is never worth buying insurance by that flawed logic.
I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile
What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite
The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick
I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero
Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -
"A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."
It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.
Ah, that's good to hear!
Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that
As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse
Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
Apparently the trend of getting more conservative as they age is coming to an end - millenials are remaining left/liberal, by and large.
People (usually) become more conservative as they get richer, which used to correlate with getting older, but no longer does.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
One of the experts on the BBC discussion last night made that point - that the theological structure of the Revolution was explicitly against the hereditary inheritance of power. And that by doing this, the IRGC had broken a fundamental tenant of the system.
The people holding the guns can often become a bit more practical and flexible with their purported ideologies if it maintains their grip. New people coming in might turn out to be genuine believers who don't agree with as much use of force (unlikely though that scenario may be).
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
The worst thing now would be a wounded theocratic Iran rising from the ashes, set on revenge.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile
What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite
The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick
I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero
Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -
"A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."
It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.
Ah, that's good to hear!
Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that
As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse
Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
Apparently the trend of getting more conservative as they age is coming to an end - millenials are remaining left/liberal, by and large.
People (usually) become more conservative as they get richer, which used to correlate with getting older, but no longer does.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
One of the experts on the BBC discussion last night made that point - that the theological structure of the Revolution was explicitly against the hereditary inheritance of power. And that by doing this, the IRGC had broken a fundamental tenant of the system.
It wasn't hereditary, it was as chosen by the group of elders. If it was hereditary then it would have been automatic and instant.
Interesting that despite Kemi's strong support of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, less than half of UK voters see the Tories as pro Trump. While a comfortable majority of 70% of voters see Reform as pro Trump
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
The worst thing now would be a wounded theocratic Iran rising from the ashes, set on revenge.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
Which probably requires troops on the ground. The build-up alone to allow that will take months. The casualties will be worse than in Iraq or Afghanistan, and Iraq and Afghanistan show how good we are with dealing with the next stage!
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
I cling to the hope that the mid terms in November will seriously clip his wings.
We all need some hope but unless he has permanently fallen out with his appointees on the SC Congress is likely to find itself largely ineffectual. A Constitution that was always highly overrated has been shown to have fatal flaws because it depended on Judges with a hint of integrity ensuring everything else remained in balance. Their decisions over the last year have made Trump a Sovereign in all but name and I am not sure what Congress can now do about it.
Loosing Congress might slow him down, but there is no way for the Democrats to get enough seats in the Senate to stop him. They might win a very, very narrow majority - but that will just become gridlocked.
If the Republicans do badly enough, however, they may realise that they're better off without Trump and a few Republican Senators may grow a spine.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
One of the experts on the BBC discussion last night made that point - that the theological structure of the Revolution was explicitly against the hereditary inheritance of power. And that by doing this, the IRGC had broken a fundamental tenant of the system.
That wouldn't have happened if they had a Renters' Rights law.
Don't be silly. It was a projection, and you know it!
Oi. Give BigG the link. He needs cheering up.
He needs an FoN poll with Reform, Green and Tory all duking it out on 25% each.
For that matter don't we all?
Whilst YouGov methodology it’s said is very much good for Labour.
It could be in the Populist Right 1# v Populist Right 2# v ProgBloc, where UK Psephology is now, Labour could fall, whilst ProgBloc increases, in a very dramatic looking poll.
There has to be something behind these rumours everywhere, about Labour shockingly collapsing in a poll, as yougov picks up a lot more Greens and Lib/dems in its methodology, in this Anti Trump War electorate out there.
It wouldn’t be a shock to me a pro ProgBloc methodology finds voters preferring LibDems and Greens war position to Labours, during a week narrative dominated by war and anti Trump anger. So Labour could easily drop 5, 6, 7% in a poll from YouGov and sit in last place, even as ProgBloc increases!
My explanation won’t be the one Sky News gives though. They will have a big skip brimful of shit, and will hold Starmer face down in it by his ankles 😆 Sky News are too bent in the market place rat race for headlines, to deliver the news and polling intelligently and fair to us, they’ve more than demonstrated this.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
You are 1-2 years younger than me @Leon and your liver is almost certainly in worse shape. We can leave the brain cells for others to judge. Retirement, thankfully, is a few years away yet, hopefully for us both.
Stop saying stupid things. Then I shan't have cause to upbraid you
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
You are 1-2 years younger than me @Leon and your liver is almost certainly in worse shape. We can leave the brain cells for others to judge. Retirement, thankfully, is a few years away yet, hopefully for us both.
Stop saying stupid things. Then I shan't have cause to upbraid you
You know, I think I will just take that risk.
At least you never said PM Liz Truss will surprise on the upside.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
There’s a theory that he’s already dead and they just announced him as leader to take the heat off and avoid a cycle of assassinations.
This is quite a plausible argument because the Iranians must be terrified of
1. Israeli penetration of the Iranian elite at the deepest possible level - how did the Jews know where and when to strike with such brutal yet precise force, they killed everyone at the top in Tehran in half an hour? Maybe they were helped by djinns?
Also
2. America, which now has next level military tech: this is becoming obvious. See the exfiltration of Maduro. Without losing a man. This does not mean America is almighty and invulnerable - it can't totally defend its allies in the GCC and Shahed drones, which cost sixpence, are causing real pain. Nonetheless there does seem to have been a mysterious quantum leap in America's ability to exert power at a distance
Who would want to be the next Iranian leader in this context? Not me. It's like being the next Spinal Tap drummer
They are an unnamed crewman in a red shirt, going on an expedition.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
The worst thing now would be a wounded theocratic Iran rising from the ashes, set on revenge.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
Which probably requires troops on the ground. The build-up alone to allow that will take months. The casualties will be worse than in Iraq or Afghanistan, and Iraq and Afghanistan show how good we are with dealing with the next stage!
None of that necessarily follows, and nor does the past provide any guide to the future.
What this boils down to is you don't want to do anything and hope the problem will go away by itself.
The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.
You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.
Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.
One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
How to you pronounce that? If Q is like Ga in Libyan then it might be Gaads?
9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began
Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.
That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.
The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.
I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?
If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.
I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.
On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
Removing Mullahs- definitely a good thing. However this is a war of choice, and the choice has been made by Trump, recklessly unprepared, so I fear that there are few good outcomes from this.
I don't disagree with any of that.
I would have more faith if this were a war being launched by practically any other POTUS ever . . . And with the support of the UK and other allies who could push for the right agenda to be followed.
However that is not the case and we are where we are.
And the war I would prefer is not an option, so a reckless Trump initiated war or no war at all . . . Well sadly the former is all that is available to us to see the removal of the Mullahs being even a possibility.
If something has a very low possibility of success and a known, definite cost, then it's probably not worth doing.
So it is never worth buying insurance by that flawed logic.
Plenty of insurance on the market is a swizz! But I wouldn't generally characterise insurance as something with a "very low possibility of success". That's a novel way of putting it. Insurance is usually about preventing an unlikely, but very high cost you can't afford. And I said "probably", because it depends on the exact probabilities and costs.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
You've made a series of stupid remarks recently, this is another. It is far too soon to say if Iran War 1.0 will be a disaster. On the one hand, yes, it is causing a lot of damage and instability (wars do that), on the other hand it has toppled an evil tyrant, killed a load of evil mullahs, and seriously discombobulated an evil regime, to the extent that they do not seem to have control over their own armed forces, and openly contradict each other on social media - which may be a sign of absolute disintegration. Also many Iranians seem openly delighted that America has killed the Iranian leadership
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
The worst thing now would be a wounded theocratic Iran rising from the ashes, set on revenge.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
And how would we do that?
We support with our military and intelligence services, and those of our allies, to defeat the regime and aid and abet the Iranian opposition.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
The other comment I've heard is that he'd never have been chosen as successor if they weren't at war. It would have been someone else.
The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.
You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
You think they'd care about that?
They'd rationalise it in the name of Islam.
I don't quite understand the unintended implication that Christian Crusaders were able to justify destruction in Jerusalem in the name of their faith, but fanatics in Iran would find it simply impossible to do the same thing (albeit much more thoroughly in this scenario) in the name of their faith.
Which is why I assume not doing so would be driven more by practical considerations, even if it was dressed up in religious reasoning, rather than being simply absurd to even contemplate - all is contemplatable, even if it is improbable.
So, having listened to various experts who know far more than me about Iran, the consensus seems to be that Mojtaba Khamenei is like his dad without the fluffy, soft bits. He seems to have complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and indeed the country. The complete fantasy that the loon in the White House would have some sort of say about who this country of 90m was going to choose after he murdered their leader has been shown to be just that.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
The comments I saw on Mojtaba Khamenei were interesting - that he has no religious standing, and hasn't published any religious opinions that would normally be used to test his suitability in the theocratic setting. That he had been working very quietly, attempting to control access to his father. A behind the scenes guys, with no background.
I'm curious if daddy Khamenei even wanted his son to succeed him - perhaps at least in that element he genuinely believed Iran should not turn back into a de facto monarchy.
One of the experts on the BBC discussion last night made that point - that the theological structure of the Revolution was explicitly against the hereditary inheritance of power. And that by doing this, the IRGC had broken a fundamental tenant of the system.
It wasn't hereditary, it was as chosen by the group of elders. If it was hereditary then it would have been automatic and instant.
Whereas the UK is a theocracy where the hereditary head of state is Defender of the Faith?
Comments
Can we agree, so many seasoned, experienced Conservative elder states people in Parliament, stood up against it and explained why, and weren’t even listened to? from Con samples in polling, Con voters about 50/50 split on this? The Conservative Party, and what’s left of support in the country, are not united behind Kemi on what’s she’s done over the last 9 days?
As example, look what happened to Labour after their daft “opposition party” clear water over Salisbury. The voters could clearly see Corbyn’s Labour wrong call, and hated it. And Labours wrong call then didn’t even come with a Nuclear Sized Credit Crisis Bomb for every voters household and business, based on the wrong call.
I have no idea what tomorrow's YouGov will show.
Labour lowest just 14%
Maybe they weren't "real" Muslims, like no true Scotsman and all that
HY - you are in the clear.
You can come out the tank now.
Also Oil and Gas was not privatised - with the exception of the small Britoil company. It was always overwhelmingly private.
The current estimate for recoverable reserves in the UKCS is around 15 billion barrels (low end is 10 billion, high is 20 billion). That compares with total historic UKCS production of around 38 billion BOE.
As I have mentioned before Norway drilled 49 exploration wells last year. The UK drilled none. They also drilled almost a hundred production wells. The UK drilled less than a dozen. Government revenue from Oil and Gas is currently running at around 500 billion NOK a year and the Norwegian Finance Ministry said at the end of 2024 that Oil and Gas production would be worth 10 Trillion NOK to the Norwegian economy over the next 30 years.
A modest recovery perhaps
"Research Confirms It: We Really Are Getting Dumber"
https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/research-confirms-it-really-are-getting-dumber.htm
I'm not one to make sweeping and abusive statements, but my fucking God millenials are thick as fucking pigshit
We live in interesting times
Good Lord! As many as that!
With a good night for the Greens, Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck for fourth and fifth.
This is honestly making the second Gulf War and its aftermath look like a clever, focused, planned operation. The US and Israel can keep killing and destroying as an alternative to having a plan for a while yet. Netanyahu doesn't exactly get embarrassed about a few thousand dead civilians but sooner or later they will run out of even vaguely credible targets and the Regime is going to stand unmoved but vowing revenge.
And the price of all of this is oil over $100 a barrel, a spike in inflation, gas shortages, aluminium shortages, a drop in growth potentially large enough to bring us into recession (I think we will just scrape by that) and an ever more lawless world. I thought Trump 2 would be a disaster but I was out by an order of magnitude. The next 2.5 years are going to be seriously tough.
LDs finished behind Con and Lab last yesr with Thrasher and have gone slightly backwards since
When you experience a sudden life threatening illness and you are saved by the expertise of urgent medical intervention each day is one to be grateful for
Also as my wife says I can wind people up on occasions no doubt even on here
And by the way, I do not have to agree with you and quite often don't
The lawyers will make £2,349,999,999.99 and then abandon the case.
For that matter don't we all?
I agree the precedents for western involvement in the MENA are generally terrible, but then the precedents for widescale European wars in the 1930s were fucking terrible, but we still had to fight World War 2, in Europe, and we won, and thank God we did fight it, and thank God we won
How will it pan out? We just don't know. There are way too many imponderables. But, morally, there is a very good argument to say this is a war worth doing, not just to free the Iranian people, but to set back global Islamism by decades, and maybe put it into reverse forever
Here's just one example of where you may be practically wrong, as well as morally wrong. You say that the Iranians have now elevated an even worse leader. That may be true. But what if Trump and Bibi slot him as well? What if he is killed in a few days? Then the guy after him? Then the next? Then the one after that? What if they literally keep killing Iranian leaders until, finally, the Iranians decide to nominate someone quite liberal, and willing to compromise, as that is the only way an Iranian leader can survive past the weekend
If I ever need a lawyer, I won't be calling you. Perhaps retirement beckons, old boy
We need a FoN poll with Ref, Green, Tory and Rupert Lowe all on 20%
May should be a good test of the Nations opinion
Dont tell anyone but views on the war arent going to change the fundamentals
I can drive to near the edge of the city centre (and then park and ride subway in the rest of the way), which involves sitting on the ribbon of joy that is the M8 leading up to the city centre. It's a car park at the best of rush-hour times made even worse by the fact there's been major roadworks on it since September with average speed cameras and half the normal number of usable lanes.
I can get the bus, where the service has been so hollowed out (to the point it nearly stopped entirely other than because a big protest stopped it) that last two options for leaving the city centre will be just after 4pm and just after 5pm and they will be so full (given no trains) that there is a real risk of there not being enough space to get on it.
I can get the train to Paisley and hope either for a train replacement bus service for the remainder of the way (which is always a shit show given number of commuters to number of buses and members of staff generally not really knowing what's going on, which isn't there fault, but, still...) or a regular bus in Paisley going to Glasgow that will (again, because the service is so hollowed out) take a massively circuitous route to get there because the service is trying to cover a number of different routes that all got amalgamated to one, so will take fecking ages to go a small number of miles.
Or I can work from home, which I absolutely detest but is by far the easiest of the options.
I'm lucky that I have as many of these options but most of them are still horrible. Hopefully the station is back up and running relatively soon, though I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few weeks of not much happening on that front.
35% is quite margin under less than half
Actually 21% labour pro Trump is higher than I would have expected
Rather like Putin in the Ukraine, Trump has embarked on this adventure under a completely false premise, Putin thought his forces would sweep aside the Ukrainian army, no one would fight for a comedian like Zelenskyy and within 72 hours the Russian Army would be in Kyiv and Lviv.
Trump must have convinced himself a few bombs and missile strikes would bring the Iranian people onto the streets and topple the theocracy.
Both men share an inate stupidity anf the rest of the world will pay for their grotesque ineptitude,
However, as with Ukraine, a new stability or equilibrium will be reached. Oil is already dropping back towards $90 a barrel and I suspect will go lower absent anything else happening. As for shortages, re-opening Hormuz and getting Persian Gulf production re-started will happen once it becomes clear for now Iran may have the will but not the means to do anything about it.
The question then becomes how long will it take Tehran to re-build its drone and missile capability and we go through all this again.
I don't think you're sure when your writing declined. You were in your Camden flat , nothing special, quite desirable, firing off screeds. Then the fragments started. Like this. And this. Then, cornered by actual historical evidence, you reached for whataboutism and the No True Scotsman fallacy, simultaneously. That's efficient. Most people need two paragraphs to be that wrong. You did it in three sentences. Someone points out that the main damage to Jerusalem's holy sites came from New South Wales, and you go: "Bit weird how Muslims blew up the Bamiyan Buddhas."
That's not a rebuttal. That's not even a counter-argument. That's you pointing at a completely different country, a completely different century, a completely different group, and going "yeah but THEM though." You didn't engage the argument. You didn't address the sources. You just lobbed a whatabout match and legged it, like an Australian in a mosque, leaving behind only a faint smell of scorched logic and the ghost of a No True Scotsman fallacy.
You write under innumerable pseudonyms. Apparently none of them can follow a thread.
It will be ancilliary effects that shift the dial, if anything
(Roll_Safe.gif)
- you gerrymander
- you fiddle the elections *as much as you can*
- you ignore the lower courts and congress as much as you can
Trumpism is a series of layers. Each one gets you part of the way there.
No war and the Mullahs survive.
1. Israeli penetration of the Iranian elite at the deepest possible level - how did the Jews know where and when to strike with such brutal yet precise force, they killed everyone at the top in Tehran in half an hour? Maybe they were helped by djinns?
Also
2. America, which now has next level military tech: this is becoming obvious. See the exfiltration of Maduro. Without losing a man. This does not mean America is almighty and invulnerable - it can't totally defend its allies in the GCC and Shahed drones, which cost sixpence, are causing real pain. Nonetheless there does seem to have been a mysterious quantum leap in America's ability to exert power at a distance
Who would want to be the next Iranian leader in this context? Not me. It's like being the next Spinal Tap drummer
Who have not been banned.
So, I think we have to see this through now to their utter and total defeat.
They'd rationalise it in the name of Islam.
It could be in the Populist Right 1# v Populist Right 2# v ProgBloc, where UK Psephology is now, Labour could fall, whilst ProgBloc increases, in a very dramatic looking poll.
There has to be something behind these rumours everywhere, about Labour shockingly collapsing in a poll, as yougov picks up a lot more Greens and Lib/dems in its methodology, in this Anti Trump War electorate out there.
It wouldn’t be a shock to me a pro ProgBloc methodology finds voters preferring LibDems and Greens war position to Labours, during a week narrative dominated by war and anti Trump anger. So Labour could easily drop 5, 6, 7% in a poll from YouGov and sit in last place, even as ProgBloc increases!
My explanation won’t be the one Sky News gives though. They will have a big skip brimful of shit, and will hold Starmer face down in it by his ankles 😆 Sky News are too bent in the market place rat race for headlines, to deliver the news and polling intelligently and fair to us, they’ve more than demonstrated this.
What this boils down to is you don't want to do anything and hope the problem will go away by itself.
It would have been someone else.
Which is why I assume not doing so would be driven more by practical considerations, even if it was dressed up in religious reasoning, rather than being simply absurd to even contemplate - all is contemplatable, even if it is improbable.
#sarcasm
#notmyking
#atheism
#republic