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  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,499

    kinabalu said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You're sliding into what I can only describe as performative truculence.
    Wanting the Iranian regime to fall is neither performative nor truculent, just because you don't agree with it.

    I agree with every word the German Chancellor says here, is he being performatively truculent too?

    Friedrich Merz has called for a speedy change of government in Iran, saying: "The sooner the mullah regime stops, the sooner this war will be over."

    The German chancellor says: "Iran is the centre of international terrorism and this centre must be shut down and the Americans and Israelis are doing that in their own way."

    He also says the war could have "repercussions" on the German economy, the largest in Europe, and says his government is "doing everything we can to increase our independence in energy policy".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz0g2yg3579t?post=asset:47aaaca9-756c-49d4-8a2b-f2b9b7aeb7cb#post
    He wanted the Israelis to kill as many Gazans as they could. Sex or age of no consequence. I hope it was performative . I just wish he'd perform where no one had to see it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    Jedis.

    Look, in The Old Republic the Jedi Council was a theocracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,790

    Cicero said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.

    The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
    No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.

    I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?

    If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.

    I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.

    On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
    The what and the how are different.

    Merz is correct int he what

    This is not the how
    Give me a better how.
    Almost anything than randomly lobbing bombs at Tehran.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    edited 6:05PM
    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You're sliding into what I can only describe as performative truculence.
    Wanting the Iranian regime to fall is neither performative nor truculent, just because you don't agree with it.

    I agree with every word the German Chancellor says here, is he being performatively truculent too?

    Friedrich Merz has called for a speedy change of government in Iran, saying: "The sooner the mullah regime stops, the sooner this war will be over."

    The German chancellor says: "Iran is the centre of international terrorism and this centre must be shut down and the Americans and Israelis are doing that in their own way."

    He also says the war could have "repercussions" on the German economy, the largest in Europe, and says his government is "doing everything we can to increase our independence in energy policy".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz0g2yg3579t?post=asset:47aaaca9-756c-49d4-8a2b-f2b9b7aeb7cb#post
    He wanted the Israelis to kill as many Gazans as they could. Sex or age of no consequence. I hope it was performative . I just wish he'd perform where no one had to see it
    I thought you were pro European politicians
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    Jedis.

    Look, in The Old Republic the Jedi Council was a theocracy.
    Though they didn't turn the republic into a theocracy. Well they tried - but the elected chancellor of the republic yeated the would be head theocrat.

    Then again, they weren't planning to create a society where only senior Jedi would have all the power. They said that, at least.

    Mind you, the Jedi council was all blokes, wasn't it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747


    Bruno Maçães
    @MacaesBruno

    The US abandoned Ukraine, insulted every European country, threatened to invade Spain and Greenland. In return Europe offered to help America’s mad war and mitigate its consequences. We are clearly insane

    https://x.com/MacaesBruno/status/2031043343640076451

    No, we're weak.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    I like John Healey and labour could do worse
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    Jedis.

    Look, in The Old Republic the Jedi Council was a theocracy.
    Though they didn't turn the republic into a theocracy. Well they tried - but the elected chancellor of the republic yeated the would be head theocrat.

    Then again, they weren't planning to create a society where only senior Jedi would have all the power. They said that, at least.

    Mind you, the Jedi council was all blokes, wasn't it?
    No there was at least one female siting next to Ki-Adi Mundi.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Broken, sleazy Reform and Labour on the slide!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    Jedis.

    Look, in The Old Republic the Jedi Council was a theocracy.
    Though they didn't turn the republic into a theocracy. Well they tried - but the elected chancellor of the republic yeated the would be head theocrat.

    Then again, they weren't planning to create a society where only senior Jedi would have all the power. They said that, at least.

    Mind you, the Jedi council was all blokes, wasn't it?
    Supposedly not, though all the ones with lines were I think,
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690
    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    Indeed. It has got rid of the weird Green lowball of 9% though!
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,632

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a poll roughly equivalent to what my mental picture is of the state of the parties. (And which I bet from).

    Polls are polls, but interesting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    The House of Lords?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690
    Roger said:

    Zelenski wants to join the war against Iran.

    Not a smart move I'd have thought

    Unsurprising, given the assistance they have provided to Russia.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,732

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,030
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    People who believe in a gid as fervently as the mullahs do might do anything. They are clrarly maf anf rationality or even internal consistency doesn't cone into it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332

    Cicero said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.

    The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
    No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.

    I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?

    If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.

    I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.

    On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
    The what and the how are different.

    Merz is correct int he what

    This is not the how
    Give me a better how.
    You're the expert, with unique insight into how to plan, prosecute, and finish this war!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,220

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
    May should still be a good night for him, but if the Tories were to start getting close in the polls in the next 2 months it would add some interest to the whole affair.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
    Good
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,004
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261

    John Healey opens the debate in the HOC

    Iran threatenes us all

    We took steps from January, weeks before this action began to reposition typhoons, F35s, drone teams, radar and defence in the region

    We do not work alone, but we are leading and co-ordinating our response with our NATO allies and partners including the US other nations and the Gulf States

    As others have very calmly and factually said over and over again on PB, no lack of preparation, no tardiness by UK.

    Contrary to Tory lies.

    The key point.

    Labour unlike Tories and Reform standing up to Trump.

    Labour unlike LD and Greens, acting defensively and proportionately.

    Starmer has got this spot on so far.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
    They are down to averaging about 27% over the last 15 polls released from 29.5% in the previous 15
    Big drops with 3 or 4 pollsters
    Its a real phenomenon
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,632
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    Indeed - and surely there's an architect somewhere that can do even better. I could perhaps sketch something wonderful, I'm sure you'd be able to do better still, but a proper architect.. with a proper legend to build..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    kle4 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
    May should still be a good night for him, but if the Tories were to start getting close in the polls in the next 2 months it would add some interest to the whole affair.
    It wont be anywhere near as good as May 2025
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,257
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    Trump

    I may try to seize Iran's oil. !!!!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,014

    Cicero said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.

    The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
    No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.

    I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?

    If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.

    I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.

    On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
    The what and the how are different.

    Merz is correct int he what

    This is not the how
    Give me a better how.
    Almost anything than randomly lobbing bombs at Tehran.
    Not lobbing bombs at Tehran won't topple the regime.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Out of curiosity, what is the correct way to refer to a theological oligarchy that explicitly reserves power to senior clerics?
    Jedis.

    Look, in The Old Republic the Jedi Council was a theocracy.
    Though they didn't turn the republic into a theocracy. Well they tried - but the elected chancellor of the republic yeated the would be head theocrat.

    Then again, they weren't planning to create a society where only senior Jedi would have all the power. They said that, at least.

    Mind you, the Jedi council was all blokes, wasn't it?
    Supposedly not, though all the ones with lines were I think,
    How very Islamic Republic, eh?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,357

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,449

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Broken, sleazy Reform and Labour on the slide!
    Best Mr. Burns "Excellent!" voice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    Indeed - and surely there's an architect somewhere that can do even better. I could perhaps sketch something wonderful, I'm sure you'd be able to do better still, but a proper architect.. with a proper legend to build..
    As UndDictator, I will grade buildings on the violence of the rhetoric of Award Winning Architects against them.

    Mild tutting - meeeeeeeh
    Angry Denunciation - nice
    Setting themselves on fire in protest - winner
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
    That doesn't dispute the point about religious hypocrisy at all, but as I said it doesn't sound very plausuble to me in any case so it is moot.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,632
    edited 6:30PM
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

    The station facade is fine, it was an adjacent building that went down.. They are doing some tests on the internal structure but it looks like we've been lucky - rumour is it got very close to taking the whole thing.

    Agree that Central is lovely, shame I commute into Queen Street (which is fine but nothing special).
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261
    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    There are as many likely to go back to Labour from whence they came.

    Much of the Reform surge was in Midlands, North East, North West where Labour strong previously and Tories nowhere.

    Many liking the cult of Farage not the Tory brand.

    Tactical voters voting against Reform aren't going to vote for Farage in a dress and heels

    Thats why Tory grandees will be getting letters in during Msy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367
    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    The reason that the media think that Reform is a government in waiting is that they lead the polls and when you put that poll lead into a seat calculator, this shows them winning a vast majority.

    I repeat - given that it took the media months to not understand Murder Tuesday during COVID, it's Gell-Mann Amnesia to expect in depth knowledge to be presented.

    Just as in many other fields in life, the Top Dogs are all Proper Generalists. And regard the experts as weird and not Proper.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261
    edited 6:33PM

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Starmer stood up to Trump after he started bombing Iran. Last Tuesday and Wednesday forcibly.

    Polls taken 6th to 8th show swing to Labour

    Survation
    Opinium
  • Sir Keir is on the right side of history.
  • Reform are down in ANOTHER poll. They will be second soon.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,014

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
    None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.

    In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.

    Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
    That doesn't dispute the point about religious hypocrisy at all, but as I said it doesn't sound very plausuble to me in any case so it is moot.
    The actions of the Saudis have been... interesting... regarding the religious sites.

    They have been systematically eradicating anything that is pre-Islamic and much that is post.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
    None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.

    In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.

    Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
    Shouldn't, you be out there, leading from the front?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    There are as many likely to go back to Labour from whence they came.

    Much of the Reform surge was in Midlands, North East, North West where Labour strong previously and Tories nowhere.

    Many liking the cult of Farage not the Tory brand.

    Tactical voters voting against Reform aren't going to vote for Farage in a dress and heels

    Thats why Tory grandees will be getting letters in during Msy
    The Tories got 32 seats out of 75 in 2019. Ok, that was a high mark for them and they collapsed to nearly nothing in 2024, but they'd been building support for years, and had 20 or more from 2010-2017.

    In the North East they had 10 out of 29 seats in 2019.

    None of which is to say their Red Wall incursion is likely to be rebuilt any time soon, but the Reform surge though not entirely built from ex-Tories, did have something significant to cannibalise from them in 2024.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,499

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
    I agree.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261
    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
    Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.

    As do several topic specific polls

    43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,241
    Evening all :)

    It seems having peered into the abyss this morning, the markets have decided on sanity. Oil, which overnight approached $115 if not higher, is now back close to where it was just above $90 a barrel (someone will have done well from that market) and shares, after falling/plummeting/crashing (delete as appropriate) have closed the day in London little changed.

    Where are we this evening? Iran seems to have had its capability not just to throw missiles and drones at its neighbours but to defend its own airspace denuded if not eliminated. In essence, Israel and the US have air supremacy and can attack targets in Iran at will inflicting such death and destruction as they wish.

    And yet the regime endures, battered certainly, broken possibly but nonetheless still in place. 35 years ago, the Iraqis were driven from Kuwait, the Republican Guard shattered on the "Highway of Death", the Marsh Arabs and Kurds in open revolt and no serious opposition between the US and British forces and Baghdad and yet George W Bush called a halt and the argument was the coalition assembled had only been assembled to liberate Kuwait, not oust Saddam Hussein. I'm left to wonder whether, if the Americans had moved on to Baghdad then where we would be now.

    We're back to where we were when all this started - if you want regime change in Tehran, how do you achieve it? You can hope for the people to rise but what if they don't or can't? You can hope for the military to turn against the IGRC but what if they won't or can't? The regime endures and can rebuild and we will be facing all us again in months or years.

    Those advocating regime change have not put up a credible option other than American ground troops and is it likely the man who decried foreign wars (and saw the political impact of said on his predecessors) is going to authorise sending American troops into Iran? I suspect not so the regime endures.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747
    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    Who counts as a neutral commentator, out of interest?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,332
    Eabhal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

    The station facade is fine, it was an adjacent building that went down.. They are doing some tests on the internal structure but it looks like we've been lucky - rumour is it got very close to taking the whole thing.

    Agree that Central is lovely, shame I commute into Queen Street (which is fine but nothing special).
    I know Glasgow Central reasonably well, last stayed there in 2024. Motel One is right next door on the southwest side, and half decent too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,449
    edited 6:39PM
    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    We'll know Reform are done for when Leon gets bored with them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,367
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    Who counts as a neutral commentator, out of interest?
    I am neutral
    You are biased
    He/She/They/It has been banned by Ofcom for partisanship
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,626

    Cicero said:

    9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered
    In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began


    https://popular.info/p/9-days-in-the-most-basic-question

    Not unreasonable.

    Many things worth doing have many reasons why they are worth doing.

    That there are so many valid reasons why this war is happening is further proof that it is a good idea, not proof that it is a bad one.
    You really are off your head, aren't you? The Trump administration has no plan at all, and no means of achieving any of its stated aims. Far from a victorious march to victory, what is most likely to happen is that after a highly disruptive few weeks of conflict, an unstable truce is put in place with none of Trump's aims achieved whatsoever, but at a cost of several trillion dollars, not to mention the shattering of the illusory security of countries in the GCC and a long term economic downturn- not to mention the benefits to Russia.

    The abject incompetence of Trump may bring the benefit that the GOP are utterly trashed at the midterms, but then we will have 2 years of infantile bluster from the emasculated Trump, which- granted- is better than he actually retains any power, but will be an abject humiliation for the USA and the West in general.
    No I am not off my head, yes I agree that the Trump administration is useless.

    I agree with German Chancellor Merz that the fall of the Iranian regime is required. Is Merz off his head?

    If Trump TACOs out then I will oppose that and not be too surprised. Hopefully Bibi prevents him from reverting to form and TACOing out.

    I would be utterly delighted to see the GOP trashed at the midterms.

    On a Venn diagram I am in the intersection of "despises Trump" and "supports this war".
    Of course you are not off your head. How did anyone come to that conclusion?


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,818

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That's a nasty fall for Reform. Nigel needs to address this. If Reform start seeming like the thing people only supported in 2025 (a fad in other words) then it could be deadly.
    Several tricky problems for Nigel.

    The rise of the greens means that he's no longer the only fresh thing on the menu. Indeed, adding Jenrick etc has added a distinct staleness to his offer.

    He's not able to project the lustre of winning, thanks to the Gorton result.

    He's seen as being Trump's mate, and Trump is even less popular in Britain as normal.

    And, whilst it's probably only a percent or two, Lowe's Blackshorts are gathering.

    As Nick Hewer said when The Apprentice was still good, "well, I'll leave it with you".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734

    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    We'll know Reform are done for when Leon gets bored with them.
    Do you think he will go back to voting for Labour/Starmer like he did in 2024?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,357

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    There’s a thread where it does at least fit all the other polls. Two right of centre parties fighting themselves to the death/merger, whichever comes first - Kemi made explicit she don’t want anything from centrists, so can’t deserve many centre votes: 20 and 27. ProgBloc, out to beat the two shrill populist and Right Wing parties in each constituency: 46% {mid 40s from all pollsters}.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747

    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    We'll know Reform are done for when Leon gets bored with them.
    Do you think he will go back to voting for Labour/Starmer like he did in 2024?
    Me too! Peas in a pod us two.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,992
    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    The station is pretty much untouched, the incinerated building is privately owned I believe.
    Unfortunately this atmospheric portal is likely fecked.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    edited 6:42PM
    Brixian59 said:

    John Healey opens the debate in the HOC

    Iran threatenes us all

    We took steps from January, weeks before this action began to reposition typhoons, F35s, drone teams, radar and defence in the region

    We do not work alone, but we are leading and co-ordinating our response with our NATO allies and partners including the US other nations and the Gulf States

    As others have very calmly and factually said over and over again on PB, no lack of preparation, no tardiness by UK.

    Contrary to Tory lies.

    The key point.

    Labour unlike Tories and Reform standing up to Trump.

    Labour unlike LD and Greens, acting defensively and proportionately.

    Starmer has got this spot on so far.
    You are just wrong

    Labour are very much fighting this war with the US, NATO, and our Middle East allies

    Starmer said no to US airbase use, but within 48 hours gave that permission including Fairford and Diego Garcia allowing B1 to deliver their payload of upto 28 cruise missiles into Iran

    As of this moment where is Starmer standing up to Trump

    Of course he is not, neither is Merz, Macron, the Gulf States and others who are all actively engaged in this conflict
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    I note your contrary view but do not accept it as likely or accurate
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,633

    eek said:

    eek said:

    https://www.cer.eu/insights/impact-brexit-immigration-uk

    A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.

    https://www.cer.eu/insights/impact-brexit-immigration-uk

    Yep with Europeans no longer coming the intake was unsurprisingly more coloured
    Nothing wrong with that at all, unless you're a racist.
    The irony is that most people who voted for Brexit are
    Most people who voted for Brexit are not racists. But most racists voted for Brexit.
    I am trying to picture the associated Venn diagram. I am envisioning a smaller circle marked racist completely subsumed into a larger circle marked Brexit.
    That's not a Venn diagram, which by construction never has one circle fully enclosed in another.
    I realise that, but how does one represent the fact that every racist voted Brexit but not every Brexiter is a racist.
    You can't.

    The intersection of Voted Remain and Racist is not a null set.
    I am asserting that all racists voted Brexit. I have not conceded than a single racist voted Remain, so draw me my Venn diagram.
    I love a quiz

    Where do you put the antisemites who voted remain?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690
    Brixian59 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
    Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.

    As do several topic specific polls

    43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.

    Citing a very modest rise to 21% is frankly, pretty desperate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437
    edited 6:47PM
    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
    Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.

    As do several topic specific polls

    43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.

    Citing a very modest rise to 21% is frankly, pretty desperate.
    A rise to 21% from the lowest ever vote share recorded by that pollster no less (and 2% below where is was the week before that )

    In bounce terms, not the full zebedee
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    Which neutral commentators ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,004
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

    Ah, that's good to hear!

    Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that

    As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse

    Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,241
    kle4 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    There are as many likely to go back to Labour from whence they came.

    Much of the Reform surge was in Midlands, North East, North West where Labour strong previously and Tories nowhere.

    Many liking the cult of Farage not the Tory brand.

    Tactical voters voting against Reform aren't going to vote for Farage in a dress and heels

    Thats why Tory grandees will be getting letters in during Msy
    The Tories got 32 seats out of 75 in 2019. Ok, that was a high mark for them and they collapsed to nearly nothing in 2024, but they'd been building support for years, and had 20 or more from 2010-2017.

    In the North East they had 10 out of 29 seats in 2019.

    None of which is to say their Red Wall incursion is likely to be rebuilt any time soon, but the Reform surge though not entirely built from ex-Tories, did have something significant to cannibalise from them in 2024.
    Oddly enough, if you look at many of the seats the Conservatives won for the first time in 2019, they had been building support steadily since 2001 with vote shares rising at every election (apart from a blip in 2017).

    I think this was the result of RTB in the 1980s - the new generation of Conservative voters were the sons and daughters of those who had bought their Council homes and were themselves now homeowners and we all know how homeownership is the bedrock of the Conservative voting coalition (or was).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,934
    edited 6:51PM

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    It does fit with our narrative. Nigel and Starmer having a shocker of a war and Kemi (and Zack) smashing it out of the park.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

    Ah, that's good to hear!

    Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that

    As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse

    Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
    Apparently the trend of getting more conservative as they age is coming to an end - millenials are remaining left/liberal, by and large.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    There’s a thread where it does at least fit all the other polls. Two right of centre parties fighting themselves to the death/merger, whichever comes first - Kemi made explicit she don’t want anything from centrists, so can’t deserve many centre votes: 20 and 27. ProgBloc, out to beat the two shrill populist and Right Wing parties in each constituency: 46% {mid 40s from all pollsters}.
    There’s this weird belief here, that every left of centre party backs whichever left of centre party is best placed to win. Whereas right of centre voters divide evenly between Conservatives and Reform. Presumably in the interests of good sportsmanship.

    It does not work like that. All the evidence we’re seeing is that where the Conservatives have no chance, their vote collapses to Reform.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734
    edited 6:51PM
    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,122
    edited 6:50PM
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/09/labour-mps-talks-over-defecting-green-party/

    Several Labour MPs are in talks with the Greens about defecting to the party
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,632
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I had no idea the old Glasgow Central Station was so magnificent. A beautiful Victorian pile

    What a tragic loss. and even worse if Glasgow is now obliged to endure some modernist piece of shite

    The city council must be FORCED to rebuild it, as it was, brick by brick

    I wouldn't have had you down as a clinging-to-the-past type. I'd just have them rebuild it well, and perhaps not worry about all the disabled ramps and whatever else it is that handicaps them from doing so. Some of these locations represent art as much as functionality. (Although I'd be very keen that no actual artists should be involved (they know fuck all about art).
    What? I've been ranting on about the awfulness of 90% of modern architecture since the PB Year Zero

    Personally, I'd make architects and planners rebuild every single town they devastated from 1950-1990. With their bare hands. For no money. And if they are dead, make their kids do it. And their kids. And their kids, Unto the 9th generation. Also anyone leftwing
    And rebuild the old building? The facade must live up to its ancestor (and that doesn't mean in any way the same) but otherwise let it rip. It was hardly a treasure if it had a vape shop.
    Have you seen photos? It was majestic. A Scottish St Pancras
    I don't know Glasgow well at all, been through said station only a couple of times, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. this article says -

    "A fire broke out on the ground floor of a 19th-century commercial building around 3.46pm on Sunday, causing “enormous damage” and the loss of the building’s dome...Only the facade of the building at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street has been left standing..."

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/glasgow-central-station-closed-after-huge-blaze-as-travel-disruption-to-continue

    It seems to from the graphic in that article that the major damage was limited to the historic building highlighted in orange at the corner of Gordon Street and Union Street, and the danger from that has caused the closure of the adjacent station? I could be wrong, but that seems massively inconvenient for Glaswegians, but not culturally catastrophic for the complex as a whole.

    Ah, that's good to hear!

    Thankyou. I have been misled - FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - by people apparently over-reacting to this news on X, and claiming the whole shebang has gone. Clearly it's sad this other building is fried, but maybe they can rebuild that

    As I get older I find I get MORE upset by the loss of beauty and heritage, and old stuff in general. I always expected I would care less and become more cynical. Tis not the case. Maybe it's because I'm an old git myself, so it's sublimated self preservation, but I think it is more accrued wisdom. As you age you realise how precious old things are - buildings, landscapes, rituals, even institutuons - and how easily they can be lost, or binned, only to be replaced with something much much worse

    Presumably this is related to the way people become more conservative as they age. They literally see the need to CONSERVE
    X/Grok thinks the station is in Tel Aviv, and is community-noting people saying it is in Glasgow.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    There’s a thread where it does at least fit all the other polls. Two right of centre parties fighting themselves to the death/merger, whichever comes first - Kemi made explicit she don’t want anything from centrists, so can’t deserve many centre votes: 20 and 27. ProgBloc, out to beat the two shrill populist and Right Wing parties in each constituency: 46% {mid 40s from all pollsters}.
    I like your posts and do understand you put a lot of effort in, but I simply do not agree with you especially on your characterisation of Kemi

    My wife finds her refreshing and interesting which is supported in her polling

    And it depends on your centre because if it is re-joining the EU or remaining in the ECHR then it is not mine
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,257

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The way the word "mullahs" is used on here as pejorative synechdoche for the Iranian regime is grotesquely Islamophobic.

    You're dealing with the people who were convinced the Iranians would nuke Jerusalem until it was pointed out it was the third holiest site in Islam.
    Ostensibly religious people have not been unknown to trash their own religious sites from time to time, or engage in gross hypocrisy in general in order to justify their sadistic whims and lust for power, without even realising they are doing it. They're much like non-religious people in that way.

    Doesn't sound like a very plausible threat to me from a practical perspective, but simply because the regime is religious surely wouldn't guarantee they wouldn't do something that seems like it would be very contrary to that world view.
    I am the least observant Muslim in the world and even I know Jerusalem is sacred.

    One of the divisions of the IRGC is called the Quds Force, Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
    None of which stops the regime from nuking Israel, were it able to do so.

    In a "if we can't have it, nobody can" sadistic way.

    Like an abusive parent murdering their child.
    More like an Australian. In the last millenium and a half the most destruction to the Jerusalem Holy Sites has come from New South Wales. Little or none from Iran or other Islamic states.

    Classical Islamic law contains strong prohibitions against damaging sacred sites. In particular, destroying or damaging the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock is considered a grave sin by virtually all Islamic scholars. The Quran (22:40) explicitly calls for the protection of "monasteries, churches, synagogues, and mosques" where God's name is remembered. Jurists like al-Shaybani agree that Islam prohibits the destruction of religious sites even during legitimate armed conflict. That's doubly true for one of the 3 Holy Sites.

    This is backed up by Islamic tradition and actions. When Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab originally entered Jerusalem in 637 CE he issued a covenant (the 'Covenant of Umar') guaranteeing the safety of the city's inhabitants, their property, and their churches. Similarly, Saladin's recapture of Jerusalem in 1187 is similarly noted for its restraint and protection of the city's holy sites.

    Damage since then has been caused by the Crusades (1099–1187), the Arab-Israeli war (1948), and an an Australian called Michael Dennis Rohan who in 1969 walked in and set fire to the mosque, destroying an 800 year old pulpit, a gift from Saladin. Rohan was an Evangelical Christian who believed he was bringing about the Second Coming of Christ by allowing the Jews to rebuild the Temple. Which, of course, was last destroyed by a bunch of Italians.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437

    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.

    Have you seen it?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,690
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    That doesn't fit the narrative
    The media seem determined to tell us all that Reform are a government in waiting !

    The Tories need to sit tight and wait for Reform to implode .
    There are as many likely to go back to Labour from whence they came.

    Much of the Reform surge was in Midlands, North East, North West where Labour strong previously and Tories nowhere.

    Many liking the cult of Farage not the Tory brand.

    Tactical voters voting against Reform aren't going to vote for Farage in a dress and heels

    Thats why Tory grandees will be getting letters in during Msy
    The Tories got 32 seats out of 75 in 2019. Ok, that was a high mark for them and they collapsed to nearly nothing in 2024, but they'd been building support for years, and had 20 or more from 2010-2017.

    In the North East they had 10 out of 29 seats in 2019.

    None of which is to say their Red Wall incursion is likely to be rebuilt any time soon, but the Reform surge though not entirely built from ex-Tories, did have something significant to cannibalise from them in 2024.
    Oddly enough, if you look at many of the seats the Conservatives won for the first time in 2019, they had been building support steadily since 2001 with vote shares rising at every election (apart from a blip in 2017).

    I think this was the result of RTB in the 1980s - the new generation of Conservative voters were the sons and daughters of those who had bought their Council homes and were themselves now homeowners and we all know how homeownership is the bedrock of the Conservative voting coalition (or was).
    And as we’ve seen, this morning, the Tories’ big problem is that they’re seen as a wasted vote. So long as that remains the case, Reform will be the default option for right wing voters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,934

    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.

    Have you seen it?
    Not a question you should ask and expect an answer.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,633
    I’m so excited about the race for second in NEV in the upcoming local elections

    Every Tory MP is solely concerned by this momentous event
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/09/labour-mps-talks-over-defecting-green-party/

    Several Labour MPs are in talks with the Greens about defecting to the party

    The telegraph mmm
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,934

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/09/labour-mps-talks-over-defecting-green-party/

    Several Labour MPs are in talks with the Greens about defecting to the party

    The Telegraph you say. Are these the same defectors who were earlier on their way to Reform?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,220
    Polanski needs to sort his teeth out ! As for supposed defections to the Greens . We heard the same about Labour MPs to Reform .

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,122
    Brixian59 said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/09/labour-mps-talks-over-defecting-green-party/

    Several Labour MPs are in talks with the Greens about defecting to the party

    The telegraph mmm
    Just because they have a German owner, it's no reason to dismiss them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,747
    nico67 said:

    Polanski needs to sort his teeth out ! As for supposed defections to the Greens . We heard the same about Labour MPs to Reform .

    A defection to Green is quite a bit easier to envisage than a defection to Reform, however.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    Which neutral commentators ?
    Several ex Tory Ministers like Sir Roger Gale
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734

    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.

    Have you seen it?
    I have not been give an embargoed copy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,478
    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    On topic - I have Farage in the Vance type of MAGA thinking against such wars of choice. Why? Over the days of this war Farage slowly carefully explained as such to us, he has not been trying to put himself and his Party as being central and relevant by being opposite to Labours position, as the Conservatives have been trying to make UK domestic politics clear blue water out of it..

    Farage has certainly not been shooting off “beyond the pale” things like Kemi has.

    If the Tory’s are going backwards in the polls, this is why >


    43% of Tory Voters in You Gov Poll oppose Kemi support for Trump

    Thats extinction level
    It would be if they were all basing their voted on this one temporary issue, lol
    Partly, it depends on how temporary it is. A competent Labour spin operation (yes, I know, but stick with me) will blame everything unpleasant that happens now on Trump's War That Badenoch Supported. It might not save Labour, but that sort of thing sticks a bit.

    More generally, it's another reminder that Kemi B has terrible judgement and is hopelessly X-brained.
    The economic fall out will have far more effect than who gave what degree of support when. And that will impact the government as CoL gets worse and worse.
    Looking at the latest YouGov on war, the clear conclusion for such change over just few days must be don’t knows - shrugged “don’t know what to think of it” last time just few days ago, already very much aware what a mess it’s going to do to their household income/businesses teetering on the brink, so now saying they hate it!

    Electorates have been educated the last few years, when price of energy goes up, everything harvested, processed, delivered, cooked by energy, goes up.

    The Conservatives put all that effort in and made all that headway on Labour budget decisions harming businesses and farming etc etc - and just nuked themselves with “Starmer wrong not to give full support immediately” and “British Troops are just hanging around” that, quite fairly as Kemi’s team pushed these differentials with Labour, Conservatives now own as their stance on this war, and everything from it.

    The war Kemi’s Team gave such clear support for, as necessary and worthy in their opinion, will now cause infinitely more damage to businesses and households than Labours policy’s were. I’m so cross at such political stupidity 😡
    If you think the economic fall out will damage the Tories i have a dozen Bunny Bridges to sell you
    It will. Kemi has backed the wrong horse and looks hot headed and incompetent. Moon has it right but most neutral comentators have been saying this for a few days
    Which neutral commentators ?
    Several ex Tory Ministers like Sir Roger Gale
    Link please
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,437

    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.

    Have you seen it?
    I have not been give an embargoed copy.
    Interesting, thanks
  • Labour down in YouGov.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,734

    You should all wait for the YouGov poll in the moring, that's the Gold Standard.

    Have you seen it?
    I have not been give an embargoed copy.
    Interesting, thanks
    The gold standard pollsters for me are YouGov and Ipsos.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,261
    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    NEW: GB voting intention

    The Green Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats, powered by university graduates

    REF 27% (-4)
    CON 20% (+1)
    LAB 20% (-3)
    GRN 14% (+5)
    LDEM 12% (-)
    OTH 8% (+2)

    Fieldwork: 2-5 March, 2,573 GB adults

    JL Partners

    Reform lose another 30 plus. Now they are at 30 with Techne, Ipsos and Freshwater only on pollsters reporting this year, Ipsos last reported in January

    Almost a week out of date.

    Possibly not picking up Labour bounce as Green increase looks more of a Gorton bounce.
    Equally possibly there isnt a Labour bounce
    A few more recent polls and specific polling on Iran suggest there is.
    Of the 6 polls with fieldwork since Trump started bombing Labour are up in 2, level in 2 and down in 2
    Labour have ranged between 15-21%, over the past week. I’m not sure I’d call that a bounce.
    Two more recent fieldwork polls suggest otherwise.

    As do several topic specific polls

    43% of Tory voters in topic Header poll back Labour attitude to Trump.

    Citing a very modest rise to 21% is frankly, pretty desperate.
    When you've hit the bottom and bounce back slightly it's significant.

    The dying Tories are till to reach their base level, possibly sub 12%
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