I still think overall Badenoch is doing a good job. But she’s got Iran wrong in my view and missed a big opportunity to calve out a unique position, different to Farage.
Talking of Farage, yet another poll shows Reform going backwards.
I agree.
Whatever she says now, I think a hypothetical Badenoch government would have readily agreed to the use of UK bases when asked, but would otherwise in practice not have differed a great deal from what the current government is doing with regards to this conflict (and that probably includes all the falling short of allies' expectations, sadly).
I remain of the view that, if the next election is viewed as a choice between Reform and the left, the left (still led by Labour) will win, and the Conservatives could get as few as 40 seats. But if Reform have fallen back and are no longer as viable a prospect by the next election, it is possible that the Conservatives could even re-enter government - so peculiar were the margins at the last general election.
I’m 100% sure Patel wouldn’t have talked Kemi out of it. I can imagine Kemi in a Israeli tank on the front line, or with the Americans and Australians in a sub
“locked on, just tap that little red button on the side, and you can notch this one up as your own.” 💥
You can see Pritti’s best satisfied smile, as her kill count goes up. 😼
Down collapses a tall apartment block in Beirut. Kemly shouts: that still only counts as one!
Unlike many on the left, I've understood, and largely tolerated (albeit with a heavy heart), Starmer's diplomatic efforts to keep on the right side of Trump, as the least worse option of maintaining some sort of productive alliance with the USA.
However, I've now concluded that the time has come for Starmer to tell Trump to fuck off.
I don't think there is any downside in telling Trump to fuck off. You don't get anywhere by brown nosing him.
Blair tried brown nosing Bush, and we all know where that got him. And of course Bush was an infinitely more reasonable President than Trump.
Totally agree
The best way, to ask KC 3 to cancel his State Visit to US
That will kick Trump tight in his bollocks
“When Sleepy Joe Biden moved into the White House after the election was stolen, a lot of people said it was the biggest downgrade in history, but Elizabeth to Charles runs close.”
I still think overall Badenoch is doing a good job. But she’s got Iran wrong in my view and missed a big opportunity to calve out a unique position, different to Farage.
Talking of Farage, yet another poll shows Reform going backwards.
I agree.
Whatever she says now, I think a hypothetical Badenoch government would have readily agreed to the use of UK bases when asked, but would otherwise in practice not have differed a great deal from what the current government is doing with regards to this conflict (and that probably includes all the falling short of allies' expectations, sadly).
I remain of the view that, if the next election is viewed as a choice between Reform and the left, the left (still led by Labour) will win, and the Conservatives could get as few as 40 seats. But if Reform have fallen back and are no longer a viable prospect by the next election, it is possible that the Conservatives could even re-enter government - so peculiar were the margins at the last general election.
I just struggle to see where a Reform collapse will come from though - their positions are not secret, some whilst they can slip back as a viable prospect as a boost to the Tories in being the main challengers, neither Reform nor the Tories have incentive to back down and help the other because they are fighting to be the leader in a Reform/Tory alliance/merger one day.
Which makes either coming out with the most seats next time much harder, unless one is substantially stronger than the other (and therefore polling above Labour).
“I just struggle to see where a Reform collapse will come from though”
They are not proven at running the British economy.
Whatever they are polling mid Parliament may be nothing like the GE PV they get. It’s actually Reform with a lot of work and persuasion to do before the General Election.
Indeed 34% Labour polled 48% on the day the election was called and 46% as late as 3 weeks before polling day. A quarter of your support gone in half a campaign. Puts Reform on 20 to 22% for example And a chunk of their stated support is 'usual WNV'
Perhaps, but i'm bullish on their prospects as they seem to occupy the 'default right' option for much of the rightwing media, people are getting used to them leading, and whilst it'll be a big challenge upcoming electoral tests will probably continue to have them easily outperform the Tories.
A GE is a different ball game but Reform would be happy to just destroy Tory prospects which is easy to do - if they outpoll them Reform take over, if the Tories outpoll them Reform can still force them to the table as they can't win whilst Reform stick around.
The most comical part is the idea the US has already won.
At this rate I expect oil prices to be above $100 per barrel on Monday. I'm not sure that qualifies as winning, however many things and people you have blown up.
Well, some definition of winning can always be found, even if it requires shifting what the stated objectives were going to be, so I'm sure they have and will achieve matters of susbtance, but the grandiosity of the rhetoric and talk of unconditional surrender will likely not be matched, given the difficulties of dominating and controlling a nation of 90m people.
Sure, but Trump needs the missiles to stop firing towards US bases, allies and commercial ships before that version of victory can be reasonably declared. He hasn't done that yet.
My estimate for how long Eric Fury lasts from here is 18 days.
The ratio of Iranan drones versus US countermeasures is very unfavourable to the US. One estimate is that the Iranians can deploy 70.000 drones.
In a David v Goliath match the cheap drones could actually beat the expensive missiles... and China and Russia would very much like to see Washington placed into such a position. Trump's arrogance is going to cost him very dear.
It was pointed out that the US are targetting the launchers rather than the drones which are irrelevant without a launcher
You can launch drones from the back of a pocket up truck, so good luck finding all the launch sites.
I still think overall Badenoch is doing a good job. But she’s got Iran wrong in my view and missed a big opportunity to calve out a unique position, different to Farage.
Talking of Farage, yet another poll shows Reform going backwards.
I agree.
Whatever she says now, I think a hypothetical Badenoch government would have readily agreed to the use of UK bases when asked, but would otherwise in practice not have differed a great deal from what the current government is doing with regards to this conflict (and that probably includes all the falling short of allies' expectations, sadly).
I remain of the view that, if the next election is viewed as a choice between Reform and the left, the left (still led by Labour) will win, and the Conservatives could get as few as 40 seats. But if Reform have fallen back and are no longer a viable prospect by the next election, it is possible that the Conservatives could even re-enter government - so peculiar were the margins at the last general election.
I just struggle to see where a Reform collapse will come from though - their positions are not secret, some whilst they can slip back as a viable prospect as a boost to the Tories in being the main challengers, neither Reform nor the Tories have incentive to back down and help the other because they are fighting to be the leader in a Reform/Tory alliance/merger one day.
Which makes either coming out with the most seats next time much harder, unless one is substantially stronger than the other (and therefore polling above Labour).
“I just struggle to see where a Reform collapse will come from though”
They are not proven at running the British economy.
Whatever they are polling mid Parliament may be nothing like the GE PV they get. It’s actually Reform with a lot of work and persuasion to do before the General Election.
Indeed 34% Labour polled 48% on the day the election was called and 46% as late as 3 weeks before polling day. A quarter of your support gone in half a campaign. Puts Reform on 20 to 22% for example And a chunk of their stated support is 'usual WNV'
Perhaps, but i'm bullish on their prospects as they seem to occupy the 'default right' option for much of the rightwing media, people are getting used to them leading, and whilst it'll be a big challenge upcoming electoral tests will probably continue to have them easily outperform the Tories.
A GE is a different ball game but Reform would be happy to just destroy Tory prospects which is easy to do - if they outpoll them Reform take over, if the Tories outpoll them Reform can still force them to the table as they can't win whilst Reform stick around.
I disagree. If the Tories beat them, Farage is gone and Reform slither away into the night
I think I certainly learnt something this week, correct me where wrong PB experts, I always presumed Warships in our fleet always at sea on deployment, or just moored up in a port ready to sail, I didn’t realise throughout history so many constantly worked on, and so few actually deployed or ready for quick action.
Warships require a fair bit of maintenance, but the RN's availability rates are so terrible because there isn't enough money.
If a ship needs major maintenance there will often not be enough in the budget to pay for it right away. So it gets tied up in port and left idle, sometimes for a very significant period. It's routine now for laid up ships to be raided for parts to keep others of the same class in running, which complicates and delays efforts to get it back into service. When work does happen it can happen at a snail's pace to save money.
HMS Daring is a stark example. She was laid up for three years waiting for a refit which has now been going on for six years, so she's been out of the fleet for nine years.
If we could magic up another six Type 45s for the navy it wouldn't solve anything, because they don't have the money or the people to even operate the ones they have.
Ah. Clearer picture. All about operating costs and refit costs.
So up to 3% of GDP providing some more money for it, won’t make an amazing world of difference then? 🙁
Not quickly, no. But it still needs doing. We're an island (OK, parts of two). We need a navy.
The most comical part is the idea the US has already won.
At this rate I expect oil prices to be above $100 per barrel on Monday. I'm not sure that qualifies as winning, however many things and people you have blown up.
The oddest bit though is Trump sure that we are now preparing two aircraft carriers to join in - isn’t one many months away from going to sea? Did he order us to put one carrier here the other there, and when we said it months away from going to sea he thought we were telling lies and bullshitting him? It’s hard not to read that into it.
I think I certainly learnt something this week, correct me where wrong PB experts, I always presumed Warships in our fleet always at sea on deployment, or just moored up in a port ready to sail, I didn’t realise throughout history so many constantly worked on, and so few actually deployed or ready for quick action.
I’m sure when 99% of voters read how few are ready to steam into action when this broke out they will believe it’s all because of decades of under investment by governments and the Conservative governments cuts due to peace dividend, and think 3% defence spending means loads more warships ready for action in future.
The percentage ready for sea / at sea has varied historically.
One of Admiral Fishers (per WWI) reforms was about junk that couldn't be got out of a dockyard within x months. He scrapped lots of that nonsense.
It's a similar issue with ammunition - easy to cut ammunition buys and training expenditure. Until magazines are empty, and no-one has done any practise.
The carriers
HMS Prince of Wales: currently at Portsmouth, on 5-day alert. Has been in Portsmouth since 2025-11-30
HMS Queen Elizabeth: having spent a large proportion of the past two years in maintenance/repairs in Portsmouth or dry dock in Rosyth, left Rosyth on Feb 25 for sea trials and is now moored since March 1st in Las Palmas off the coast of Africa
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
It's the way you tell them.
Im with @Brixian59 on this. There is no talent on the Conservative front bench other than Cleverly.
I say that as a former member of the Conservative Party and someone whose relative held two of the four Great Offices of State and could play cricket with a broken bat…
Having watched Question Time on Thursday evening, Cleverly is head and shoulders above the Shadow Cabinet, most of the Party and the Leader. I don’t like him but he has experience, an awareness of events and realpolitik, is a pragmatist and is the Conservative’s best media performer. Yesterday morning, David Lammy was on the Today programme. Like Cleverly, he knows what he can get away with, what he can say, what will make him look like a fool and how to construct an argument in a measured way.
Contrast that with the Conservative frontbench. This week, Badenoch was flanked by the political titans that are James Cartlidge and Mims Davies. I know Mims. Went to sixth form together. Her advisor at Swansea became my supervisor for one of my doctorates. As he said of her (and he was the most mild mannered of individuals)… “low wattage”.
Then there’s the rest. Priti Patel, a one woman FCO, MoD, MI6, GCHQ and glottal stop rolled into one; Chris Philp, a poor excuse for a human being; Mel Stride and Kevin Hollinrake who embody the Marxian dictum “Those are my principles, if you don’t like them, well… I have others”. Whately. Lopez. Griffith. Huddleston. Holden. There’s nothing there.
I could vote for Cleverly. The problem is he’d have to work with the same shower of incompetents.
Thing with Cleverly you can visualise him as PM. So for the current Iran blow-up he would be dealt the same hand as Starmer - your deranged supposed ally has just gone Leroy Jenkins, you have no idea what's going on, none of your ships are operational, fuel costs will go through the roof etc, etc. And I think we can trust him to muddle through somehow. It will be as OK as we can expect in the circumstances.
Badenoch just doesn't give you that confidence. She's been around forever; we know something about her and at no point has she shown any indication of stepping up.
As one of Kemi's greatest unfans this is a little unfair.
She only became an MP in 2017, and Party Leader just over a year ago.
There are 57 reasons for defenestration, but this is not one of them.
Comments
Down collapses a tall apartment block in Beirut. Kemly shouts: that still only counts as one!
Next to it was a political story. Katie Lam is next Shadow Foreign Secretary in Kemi’s upcoming reshuffle, to stop her switching to Reform.
A GE is a different ball game but Reform would be happy to just destroy Tory prospects which is easy to do - if they outpoll them Reform take over, if the Tories outpoll them Reform can still force them to the table as they can't win whilst Reform stick around.
So all comment is futile.
A man, allergic to gold, who fell into the tit barrel and came out sucking his thumb
- HMS Prince of Wales: currently at Portsmouth, on 5-day alert. Has been in Portsmouth since 2025-11-30
- HMS Queen Elizabeth: having spent a large proportion of the past two years in maintenance/repairs in Portsmouth or dry dock in Rosyth, left Rosyth on Feb 25 for sea trials and is now moored since March 1st in Las Palmas off the coast of Africa
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:9590803https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:9694960/mmsi:232002833/imo:4907892/vessel:HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH
She only became an MP in 2017, and Party Leader just over a year ago.
There are 57 reasons for defenestration, but this is not one of them.