It's going to be interesting to see if MPs finally address the marginal £100k tax band now that they're approaching it and will likely breach it next year. Interesting that the OBR came out and said that high taxes are now depressing work. There's probably a few tax rates that could be cut which will result in more overall tax take.
The political cost is too high for relatively small gain in cash. "Tax cuts for the rich". The same issue with the triple lock - doesn't save much over 5 years, catastrophic over 30 years.
Both need to happen. I still contend that on tax the bigger issue is around £50k and the child benefit cutoff - many more people around that, and more sensitive to work:leisure balance than the kind of high performer on £100k.
The biggest issue of all for me is the very poorest on Universal Credit paying Taper and Tax and NI.
For three, reasons - one is that it is one of the highest effective tax rates seen, second is that it is morally wrong for the poorest to be on the highest marginal tax rate, but thirdly and most importantly is because part timers are incredibly sensitive to that work:leisure balance you refer to.
People who work 3 days and don't want to work 5 as they're no better off if they do is a major concern.
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
Lots of independents previously and never to be written off.
Blimey, it wasn't even close. Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %
It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.
3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!
As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
Blimey, it wasn't even close. Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %
It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.
3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!
As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
Talarico is actually quite radical. Albeit using the language of the Sermon on the Mount rather than Socialism.
PS. Amused to see Megachurch pastors alarmed by some of their younger congregants asking Talarico inspired "Satanic" questions about inequality.
He's played it brilliantly, and it seems quite sincerely. I don't get the impression that the Christianity bit is fake - and it's far closer to Biblical teaching than his opponents' jeremiads.
Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.
At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?
I suspect it's about the money. Farage gets fairly rich by aligning himself with hedge fund owners and other well funded American right wing interests. He doesn't see a contradiction between his politics and his bungs. Also it hasn't prevented a high twenties vote share.
Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.
At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?
I suspect it's about the money. Farage gets fairly rich by aligning himself with hedge fund owners and other well funded American right wing interests. He doesn't see a contradiction between his politics and his bungs. Also it hasn't prevented a high twenties vote share.
Its the online echo-chamber effect as well. Spending too much time in American-inspired conversations with like-minded individuals.
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
Nothing for the Tories in Dumnonia is my current prediction
It's all very well Badenoch whining about the terrible hollowed-out armed forces we can't deploy. But who hollowed them out? Thats right, her government did.
That's a fair criticism, but the current government is only making things worse. So it's fair have for the lesser of the opposition to point that out.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Blimey, it wasn't even close. Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %
It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.
3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!
As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
Blimey, it wasn't even close. Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %
It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.
3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!
As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
Talarico is actually quite radical. Albeit using the language of the Sermon on the Mount rather than Socialism.
PS. Amused to see Megachurch pastors alarmed by some of their younger congregants asking Talarico inspired "Satanic" questions about inequality.
He's played it brilliantly, and it seems quite sincerely. I don't get the impression that the Christianity bit is fake - and it's far closer to Biblical teaching than his opponents' jeremiads.
He compares well to Trump's obvious plastic Christianity.
He could be a nightmare for the Republicans if the voters get to like him.
It's all very well Badenoch whining about the terrible hollowed-out armed forces we can't deploy. But who hollowed them out? Thats right, her government did.
Kemi thinks you can build places, ships in a fortnight and that a frigate can get from Pompey to Cyprus in 2 days.
Geography and defence procurement clearly not her strength.
It's going to be interesting to see if MPs finally address the marginal £100k tax band now that they're approaching it and will likely breach it next year. Interesting that the OBR came out and said that high taxes are now depressing work. There's probably a few tax rates that could be cut which will result in more overall tax take.
The political cost is too high for relatively small gain in cash. "Tax cuts for the rich". The same issue with the triple lock - doesn't save much over 5 years, catastrophic over 30 years.
Both need to happen. I still contend that on tax the bigger issue is around £50k and the child benefit cutoff - many more people around that, and more sensitive to work:leisure balance than the kind of high performer on £100k.
The biggest issue of all for me is the very poorest on Universal Credit paying Taper and Tax and NI.
For three, reasons - one is that it is one of the highest effective tax rates seen, second is that it is morally wrong for the poorest to be on the highest marginal tax rate, but thirdly and most importantly is because part timers are incredibly sensitive to that work:leisure balance you refer to.
People who work 3 days and don't want to work 5 as they're no better off if they do is a major concern.
Don't worry - when Reform comes in Universal Credit will be quietly cut and the incentive to not work 5 days a week will be completely lost.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
Krishna, a former management consultant, was appointed the PFEW’s first chief executive in 2024 and is reported to be paid more than £320,000 a year.
£320k a year and still allegedly on the take.
How is the police union leader paid double a Chief Constable (or Prime Minister) salary?
Because the PM's salary is ludicrously low, in the main. Yes there are other benefits (pension for life after, free board etc in Downing Street and the use of Chequers) but the salary is tiny c.f. to what I think it should be.
Free cat too.
So, how does free board, the use of Chequers etc. factor in to the Prime Minister's income tax bill? Are those benefits taxed?
It's all very well Badenoch whining about the terrible hollowed-out armed forces we can't deploy. But who hollowed them out? Thats right, her government did.
That's a fair criticism, but the current government is only making things worse. So it's fair have for the lesser of the opposition to point that out.
Is that her new official name now Farage is claiming to lead the shadow cabinet?
Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.
At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?
I suspect it's about the money. Farage gets fairly rich by aligning himself with hedge fund owners and other well funded American right wing interests. He doesn't see a contradiction between his politics and his bungs. Also it hasn't prevented a high twenties vote share.
Its the online echo-chamber effect as well. Spending too much time in American-inspired conversations with like-minded individuals.
Indeed. That these are extremely lucrative echo chambers for Farage is a major attraction. I don't think he's deliberately trying to toxify his brand. His line is insinuation but it gets amplified in the echo chambers.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Id also add... how the hell are Reform going to arrange, build and initiate a constituency focussed approach in 8 weeks? They very very obviously need to follow the Green example and go for blanket leafletting and the list
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Yay, civil war. Definitely no precedent for the Kurds rising up only to be abandoned by the US.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Id also add... how the hell are Reform going to arrange, build and initiate a constituency focussed approach in 8 weeks? They very very obviously need to follow the Green example and go for blanket leafletting and the list
Yes that would be the sensible thing to do. I think they'll stand in them all, a page on their website looks geared for that announcement
Their campaign strategy is some of the local by elections has been poor, and Farage is still fairly toxic in Scotland, even though a lot of voters have sympathy towards none of the 'establishment' parties
I can imagine John Swinney cracks open a dram most nights in Bute House laughing at the incompetence and situation of his rivals, given hes lost around 12% of SNP votes since 2021
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Yay, civil war. Definitely no precedent for the Kurds rising up only to be abandoned by the US.
It was never going to be easy to find a way to get Iran behind their monstrous and cruel regime but an invasion by Kurds might just do it.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
The downside of limited constituencies might be losing a few list votes - people not finding Green on the first vote and not looking on the second and just 'double voting'. It will cetainly happen, they will hope not excessively
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Yay, civil war. Definitely no precedent for the Kurds rising up only to be abandoned by the US.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Yay, civil war. Definitely no precedent for the Kurds rising up only to be abandoned by the US.
Best result for SLab for some time, back second on the Holyrood constituency vote ahead of Reform and ahead of Reform and the Greens on the list too. SNP still ahead but projected to lose 4 MSPs relative to 2021, Reform still doing best relative to 2021 and projected 14 seats but SLab forecast to be second in 18 seats with the Greens third on 17 https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2029179816507850880?s=20
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Reform are a paradox in Scotland. In principle English nationalism shouldn't register at all in Scotland, so their 20% or so poll ratings seem very high. Maybe they translate English to British nationalism north of the Solway/Tweed line but they have to share that segment with traditional owners the Conservatives,. A consistent 20% of the Scottish electorate identify as mainly British. Reform seem to have had some success in winning over previous SNP voters who are outright racists, which might account for a total Reform + Tory support that's higher than it normally should be.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
You mean Indy supporters are going to take Anas’s advice to them that they hold their nose and vote Labour? As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Clear movement to the Greens post the Gorton by election and US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with the swing as in Gorton mainly Labour to Green.
Labour will be somewhat relieved that unlike Yougov and like Freshwater MiC still has them ahead of the Greens, though unlike Yougov it is the Tories second to Reform now not the Greens with MiC
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
They held it for 100 years before last time out. The LibDems basically rallied the LibDem-Green-Labour vote to unseat them. Reform delivered the coup-de-grace.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The voting system in Scotland is absolute shit
Its as bad as the options that we have to vote for.
The surge in the Greens here is surely at least worth a mention. If they start leading the polls then their, er, flaws could start leading the headlines.
Clear movement to the Greens post the Gorton by election and US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with the swing as in Gorton mainly Labour to Green.
Labour will be somewhat relieved that unlike Yougov MiC still has them ahead of the Greens, though unlike Yougov it is the Tories second to Reform now not the Greens
The Greens have still not broken through 15% with any BPC pollsters except Yougov and FoN. Their previous 'surge' was very much an artefact of the frequency of their polling Thats a key thing to watch for.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
So while Russia relies on convicts and North Koreans to do the fighting, the US relies on Kurds.
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
Nothing for the Tories in Dumnonia is my current prediction
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
For those who want to vote against Reform (38% of the population from above poll) and don't want Labour (34%) the 72 Lib Dem seats offer an easy choice.
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
Nothing for the Tories in Dumnonia is my current prediction
Mel Stride will still be there.
He's got the best shot. Id want to see Tories into low 20s to back it as better than 50% chance
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Someone thinks the US will lose this war with Iran. Not particularly revelatory in itself but watched by 3.5 million which suggests a lot of Americans are rooting for this result. I also like the presenter Crystal Ball.
(And as Tommy Docherty once said when asked if United could win the double. "To answer that I'd need crystal balls')
An independent commentator on LBC called Penny Mordant was very scathing of Starmer's failure to fully support the US and Israel and not put assets in the Gulf in anticipation of Bibi's widely anticipated war. She says he is pandering to his back benchers rather than considering the needs of the nation.
So another potential leader bites the dust. The Tories were more gung-ho over Iraq then Blair then when it went pear shaped (as this one will) they were nowhere to be seen.
Senior Tories all going in balls deep.
Unless Trump gets the quick win I am not sure this is the way to go.
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
For those who want to vote against Reform (38% of the population from above poll) and don't want Labour (34%) the 72 Lib Dem seats offer an easy choice.
Except its the Tories they face in most of them, not Labour or Reform
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
So while Russia relies on convicts and North Koreans to do the fighting, the US relies on Kurds.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Jeez you people have short memories. Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
For those who want to vote against Reform (38% of the population from above poll) and don't want Labour (34%) the 72 Lib Dem seats offer an easy choice.
Except its the Tories they face in most of them, not Labour or Reform
True and only 7% want vote against the Tories (well done Kemi), but then again only 3% want to vote against Lib Dems.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Hasn’t the chat recently been that Trump has been staying away from the golf because he’s no longer physically up to it? Of course it may be because he’s got rather a lot on his plate atm with that presidenting stuff, but that never stopped the fat skiving fecker before.
The partner of Labour MP Joani Reid has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China along with two others following a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
For those who want to vote against Reform (38% of the population from above poll) and don't want Labour (34%) the 72 Lib Dem seats offer an easy choice.
Except its the Tories they face in most of them, not Labour or Reform
True and only 7% want vote against the Tories (well done Kemi), but then again only 3% want to vote against Lib Dems.
So the closer versions of those seats will come down to LDs holding on to the GTTO coalition or not
Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
For those who want to vote against Reform (38% of the population from above poll) and don't want Labour (34%) the 72 Lib Dem seats offer an easy choice.
Except its the Tories they face in most of them, not Labour or Reform
True and only 7% want vote against the Tories (well done Kemi), but then again only 3% want to vote against Lib Dems.
Only 7% MOST want to vote against the Cons. Largely due to perceived irrelevance I suspect. (The same applies to the LDs of course). Being in the least unpopular 4 parties won't get you far. Add in second and third choices and I supect the Con figure would be pretty high - not far behind Lab and Ref.
The partner of Labour MP Joani Reid has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China along with two others following a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
You mean Indy supporters are going to take Anas’s advice to them that they hold their nose and vote Labour? As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Indy supporters will vote SNP or Green, perhaps the Greens will eat into the SNP share a tad, but I don't expect that to move the dial. Normal people are left NEEDING to vote tactically to have any chance of removing the SNP from power. I a conservative, have voted Labour in my constituency as the most likely candidate to unseat the SNP incumbent. Didn't like doing it as I would much prefer to vote FOR something, but this is the way the vote share goes when the main determining factor is the constitution and hang everything else/
Western officials have told GB News that the US has NOT launched any attacks on Iran from British bases since Starmer granted permission... but this is anticipated to change soon.
American bombers are expected to start arriving at RAF Fairford for strikes.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Jeez you people have short memories. Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
Western officials have told GB News that the US has NOT launched any attacks on Iran from British bases since Starmer granted permission... but this is anticipated to change soon.
American bombers are expected to start arriving at RAF Fairford for strikes.
I for one am more comfortable with Starmer pissing on Trump's illegal war chips when the expectation would have been immediate capitulation.
I can buy the defence rather than offence argument going forward.
For a very inept Prime Minister he hasn't undertaken the absolute catastrophe the Tory shadow front bench has presided over since Saturday. Kemi needs a quick Trump win, which could be Trump declaring the win and pulling out quickly ( which of course isn't his way, figuratively speaking).
Telegraph detailing which MPs partner has been nicked. Big proponent of digital ID i believe
Well well well.
I didn't want to say too much in case of causing any issues for the site, but if you look at BBC it names where in Scotland investigations were carried out. And surprise surprise, it tallies with the Telegraph story
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Jeez you people have short memories. Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The voting system in Scotland is absolute shit
Wales is showing the way going fully d'Hondt.
Scotland should follow.
Devolution should be reversed as a failed experiment. Scotland is stuck in political purgatory. Nothing gets done whilst power is further centralised away from councils. Second rate politicians fill the seats at the Temu Parliament and third rate councillors are left doing f-all of worth either singing for or blaming the SNP. Meanwhile the SNP act as an opposition/protest party fighting WestMonster (tm), kept there by a voting system that fragments the unionist vote and consolidates the indy vote. Everything gets worse Nothing improves But stick *Scotland after (insert institution name here) and we'll all feel better about not being English.
Devolution was sold as “power closer to the people” and delivered “more politicians, fewer outcomes”. Scotland now gets the worst of both worlds: centralised control with local accountability. If that’s the success story, I’d hate to see failure.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
You mean Indy supporters are going to take Anas’s advice to them that they hold their nose and vote Labour? As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Indy supporters will vote SNP or Green, perhaps the Greens will eat into the SNP share a tad, but I don't expect that to move the dial. Normal people are left NEEDING to vote tactically to have any chance of removing the SNP from power. I a conservative, have voted Labour in my constituency as the most likely candidate to unseat the SNP incumbent. Didn't like doing it as I would much prefer to vote FOR something, but this is the way the vote share goes when the main determining factor is the constitution and hang everything else/
‘Normal people’? So on the basis of Indy polling at least 50% of Scots are abnormal. Got it.
Western officials have told GB News that the US has NOT launched any attacks on Iran from British bases since Starmer granted permission... but this is anticipated to change soon.
American bombers are expected to start arriving at RAF Fairford for strikes.
I for one am more comfortable with Starmer pissing on Trump's illegal war chips when the expectation would have been immediate capitulation.
I can buy the defence rather than offence argument going forward.
For a very inept Prime Minister he hasn't undertaken the absolute catastrophe the Tory shadow front bench has presided over since Saturday. Kemi needs a quick Trump win, which could be Trump declared the win and pulls out quickly ( which of course isn't his way, figuratively speaking).
He has stumbled a bit along the way but I think the steps so far have been broadly the right ones.
The big mistake was not anticipating the attack on Cyprus and putting further assets in place there.
He should have followed the old adage of walk quietly and carry a big stick.
Politically, getting slagged off by Trump is a good look in the eyes of most Britons.
Telegraph detailing which MPs partner has been nicked. Big proponent of digital ID i believe
Well well well.
I didn't want to say too much in case of causing any issues for the site, but if you look at BBC it names where in Scotland investigations were carried out. And surprise surprise, it tallies with the Telegraph story
I lied yesterday when I said I was gone until the May elections, but thought you would like to know what I assume is a side effect of what is going on:
Gatwick (North) arrivals was deserted at lunchtime today. No queues at passport control. We both went straight through the machines with loads free (never happened before). Even though we didn't have luggage you have to go through luggage reclaim. It was empty. All carousals were empty except one which had two lonely bags circulating. On the bus to the long stay car park there was just us and another couple.
It was really weird. less than during Covid and I travelled under the 'amber' designation to Portugal and France during Covid.
Oh and when a guide asked if a couple in Copenhagen were American they said no we are Canadian. He then said we get get a lot of Americans claiming to be Canadian at which point the guy owned up to being from Boston
Reflecting on PMQs and generally, I feel like Badenoch has failed to read the room on this, and while I think the government are failing to really play their cards well on this, they’re actually pretty in line with the public mood.
Badenoch getting shouty and throwing the personal insults around was her learning the wrong lessons from her budget response speech. Sometimes you do have to play the constructive critic rather than going for the jugular. It doesn’t help her that I don’t sense any great popular groundswell for getting more involved in this conflict. She is left a bit exposed on this, and looks unserious.
Starmer, as usual, is a useless communicator. He should be much firmer on the Cyprus threat, and he could indeed be much firmer in pushing back Trump’s insults now (a finely timed “this is not how allies speak with each other” could actually have been tremendously impactful), but he has probably got the main calls correct so far.
"This man thinks that American foreign policy should not be decided by the American people but by a passage in the bible 2500 years ago. This man should not be in charge of anything. He should be fired immediately"
Difficult to argue with that.....
Listening to a TRIP interview with Mike Pompeo, he was arguing from wrt Israel "This 3000 Year Conflict".
For poll watchers, worth noting Labour are currently polling at their lowest ever with YouGov, Opinium, More in Common, Lord Ashcroft and Techne and are one point above lowest ever with Freshwater and Find Out Now
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The voting system in Scotland is absolute shit
Wales is showing the way going fully d'Hondt.
Scotland should follow.
Devolution should be reversed as a failed experiment. Scotland is stuck in political purgatory. Nothing gets done whilst power is further centralised away from councils. Second rate politicians fill the seats at the Temu Parliament and third rate councillors are left doing f-all of worth either singing for or blaming the SNP. Meanwhile the SNP act as an opposition/protest party fighting WestMonster (tm), kept there by a voting system that fragments the unionist vote and consolidates the indy vote. Everything gets worse Nothing improves But stick *Scotland after (insert institution name here) and we'll all feel better about not being English.
Devolution was sold as “power closer to the people” and delivered “more politicians, fewer outcomes”. Scotland now gets the worst of both worlds: centralised control with local accountability. If that’s the success story, I’d hate to see failure.
Tr: people vote for parties I don’t like so the system should be changed.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Jeez you people have short memories. Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
A closer analogy would be the Iraqi Kurds
Well, there's that too.
So we're planning for a couple of trillion in expenditure, a decade of unrest in the region, and ten million or so refugees ?
The truth is that's it's completely unclear whether Trump wants regime change, or just a deal with the regime in a crippled Iraq, or something else.
I for one cannot believe that this honourable patriotic Labour government has been infiltrated and compromised by agents working for the Chinese. Nothing - literally nothing - in the UK government’s behaviour - from allowing the Chinese to build a massive spy base in Buckingham Palace to giving half of Sussex to China as long as they take £700000bn of our money as well. - has ever given any indication of this treachery
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
You mean Indy supporters are going to take Anas’s advice to them that they hold their nose and vote Labour? As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Indy supporters will vote SNP or Green, perhaps the Greens will eat into the SNP share a tad, but I don't expect that to move the dial. Normal people are left NEEDING to vote tactically to have any chance of removing the SNP from power. I a conservative, have voted Labour in my constituency as the most likely candidate to unseat the SNP incumbent. Didn't like doing it as I would much prefer to vote FOR something, but this is the way the vote share goes when the main determining factor is the constitution and hang everything else/
‘Normal people’? So on the basis of Indy polling at least 50% of Scots are abnormal. Got it.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
The Tories are circling the drain a bit. Win a couple of constituencies and hang on for dear life on the lists looks like the aim now. Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader. If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
Yes, its not looking good for Scons. Not the best move from Reform plastering Farages mug all over their leaflets in Scotland.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
We also need to factor in the anti-SNP protest vote too. I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting. More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
You mean Indy supporters are going to take Anas’s advice to them that they hold their nose and vote Labour? As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Indy supporters will vote SNP or Green, perhaps the Greens will eat into the SNP share a tad, but I don't expect that to move the dial. Normal people are left NEEDING to vote tactically to have any chance of removing the SNP from power. I a conservative, have voted Labour in my constituency as the most likely candidate to unseat the SNP incumbent. Didn't like doing it as I would much prefer to vote FOR something, but this is the way the vote share goes when the main determining factor is the constitution and hang everything else/
‘Normal people’? So on the basis of Indy polling at least 50% of Scots are abnormal. Got it.
Reflecting on PMQs and generally, I feel like Badenoch has failed to read the room on this, and while I think the government are failing to really play their cards well on this, they’re actually pretty in line with the public mood.
Badenoch getting shouty and throwing the personal insults around was her learning the wrong lessons from her budget response speech. Sometimes you do have to play the constructive critic rather than going for the jugular. It doesn’t help her that I don’t sense any great popular groundswell for getting more involved in this conflict. She is left a bit exposed on this, and looks unserious.
Starmer, as usual, is a useless communicator. He should be much firmer on the Cyprus threat, and he could indeed be much firmer in pushing back Trump’s insults now (a finely timed “this is not how allies speak with each other” could actually have been tremendously impactful), but he has probably got the main calls correct so far.
He has failed to respond to a military attack on our sovereign territory which is home to civilians as well as military. So he hasnt in any way got the big call right for me
I for one cannot believe that this honourable patriotic Labour government has been infiltrated and compromised by agents working for the Chinese. Nothing - literally nothing - in the UK government’s behaviour - from allowing the Chinese to build a massive spy base in Buckingham Palace to giving half of Sussex to China as long as they take £700000bn of our money as well. - has ever given any indication of this treachery
But Starmer in return did get us 30 days visa free travel to China......like errh 50+ other countries already had.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
But there is no plan wibble wibble
Jeez you people have short memories. Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
A closer analogy would be the Iraqi Kurds
And also the Syrian Kurds.
Who don't get the attention from the US now that they used to, since Assad fled.
Western officials have told GB News that the US has NOT launched any attacks on Iran from British bases since Starmer granted permission... but this is anticipated to change soon.
American bombers are expected to start arriving at RAF Fairford for strikes.
As you're their only viewer I'm surprised they bothered.
Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP. Lol
Farage really has to get his finger out and name his candidates, for both Holyrood and Senedd. election day is 9 weeks tomorrow! We can all see they are hand picked, the tactic of holding off naming or sake of old social media posts will backfire badly.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Comments
Trump and Netanyahu Epstein Diversion
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2029180263947817409?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
For three, reasons - one is that it is one of the highest effective tax rates seen, second is that it is morally wrong for the poorest to be on the highest marginal tax rate, but thirdly and most importantly is because part timers are incredibly sensitive to that work:leisure balance you refer to.
People who work 3 days and don't want to work 5 as they're no better off if they do is a major concern.
I don't get the impression that the Christianity bit is fake - and it's far closer to Biblical teaching than his opponents' jeremiads.
I was pretty sceptical about the MRP which has SNP as high as 67 seats, we will see some variation across Scotland and party support will be quite concentrated.
People are finally starting to click that a list SNP vote is wasted, so I expect the Greens to get 2 MSPs in most regions.
The Tories should be pretty concerned with recent polling, maybe even more than Mr Sarwar
Ant and Dec win court order to trace 'secret profits' from Banksy deals
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dnnqy9w92o
He could be a nightmare for the Republicans if the voters get to like him.
Geography and defence procurement clearly not her strength.
I have to ask what is other than smirking
. . . a Persian conversion.
Was always going to happen
Reform might end up horrifically underperforming. No candidates and an absolute fool as leader.
If they do decline it might aid the Tories. The approach they take to constituencies (standimg everywhere?) might also be key
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/three-arrested-raid-police-federation-headquarters-5fw56tc8s
Slow down lads. One scandal a day is more than enough.
Kurdish leader Hassan Sharafi confirmed that the decision has been made to support the United States in operations against Iran. The Kurds, originally from Iran but now based in Iraq, say they plan to move into Iran to fight the regime and ultimately aim to overthrow it.
...look, all the good puns were taken.
The bottom end of expectations for Reform is prob about 10 seats, which they could get close to, they've made a complete shambles out of this campaign so far. The country is crying out for a credible alternative but its not there.
I think Reform will stand in all constituencies, which should cost Slab a few seats. Surprisingly the Greens only have around 4 constituency candidates listed so far, they would be very competitive in most Glasgow and Edinburgh seats if they stood in them all - they got more than 10% in most of them at GE24.
They very very obviously need to follow the Green example and go for blanket leafletting and the list
Their campaign strategy is some of the local by elections has been poor, and Farage is still fairly toxic in Scotland, even though a lot of voters have sympathy towards none of the 'establishment' parties
I can imagine John Swinney cracks open a dram most nights in Bute House laughing at the incompetence and situation of his rivals, given hes lost around 12% of SNP votes since 2021
I still suspect that Labour will be a net beneficiary here as a vehicle for both anti-SNP and anti-Reform voting.
More interestingly (YMMV) is what happens on the list.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2029179816507850880?s=20
As Paul Sinclair (a speechwriter for various Labour luminaries) said the other night, the message is our party stinks.
Labour will be somewhat relieved that unlike Yougov and like Freshwater MiC still has them ahead of the Greens, though unlike Yougov it is the Tories second to Reform now not the Greens with MiC
It will not play out like that next time.
Thats a key thing to watch for.
Scotland should follow.
Unless Trump gets the quick win I am not sure this is the way to go.
Don't you remember the 'Northern Alliance' in Afghanistan ?
Or Epic Fuckup
it's one of those...
Big proponent of digital ID i believe
Number of media outlet are running this.
Normal people are left NEEDING to vote tactically to have any chance of removing the SNP from power.
I a conservative, have voted Labour in my constituency as the most likely candidate to unseat the SNP incumbent. Didn't like doing it as I would much prefer to vote FOR something, but this is the way the vote share goes when the main determining factor is the constitution and hang everything else/
https://x.com/CDP1882/status/2029196167699943892
Western officials have told GB News that the US has NOT launched any attacks on Iran from British bases since Starmer granted permission... but this is anticipated to change soon.
American bombers are expected to start arriving at RAF Fairford for strikes.
I can buy the defence rather than offence argument going forward.
For a very inept Prime Minister he hasn't undertaken the absolute catastrophe the Tory shadow front bench has presided over since Saturday. Kemi needs a quick Trump win, which could be Trump declaring the win and pulling out quickly ( which of course isn't his way, figuratively speaking).
I didn't want to say too much in case of causing any issues for the site, but if you look at BBC it names where in Scotland investigations were carried out. And surprise surprise, it tallies with the Telegraph story
Scotland is stuck in political purgatory. Nothing gets done whilst power is further centralised away from councils. Second rate politicians fill the seats at the Temu Parliament and third rate councillors are left doing f-all of worth either singing for or blaming the SNP. Meanwhile the SNP act as an opposition/protest party fighting WestMonster (tm), kept there by a voting system that fragments the unionist vote and consolidates the indy vote.
Everything gets worse
Nothing improves
But stick *Scotland after (insert institution name here) and we'll all feel better about not being English.
Devolution was sold as “power closer to the people” and delivered “more politicians, fewer outcomes”. Scotland now gets the worst of both worlds: centralised control with local accountability. If that’s the success story, I’d hate to see failure.
So on the basis of Indy polling at least 50% of Scots are abnormal. Got it.
The big mistake was not anticipating the attack on Cyprus and putting further assets in place there.
He should have followed the old adage of walk quietly and carry a big stick.
Politically, getting slagged off by Trump is a good look in the eyes of most Britons.
Gatwick (North) arrivals was deserted at lunchtime today. No queues at passport control. We both went straight through the machines with loads free (never happened before). Even though we didn't have luggage you have to go through luggage reclaim. It was empty. All carousals were empty except one which had two lonely bags circulating. On the bus to the long stay car park there was just us and another couple.
It was really weird. less than during Covid and I travelled under the 'amber' designation to Portugal and France during Covid.
Oh and when a guide asked if a couple in Copenhagen were American they said no we are Canadian. He then said we get get a lot of Americans claiming to be Canadian at which point the guy owned up to being from Boston
Badenoch getting shouty and throwing the personal insults around was her learning the wrong lessons from her budget response speech. Sometimes you do have to play the constructive critic rather than going for the jugular. It doesn’t help her that I don’t sense any great popular groundswell for getting more involved in this conflict. She is left a bit exposed on this, and looks unserious.
Starmer, as usual, is a useless communicator. He should be much firmer on the Cyprus threat, and he could indeed be much firmer in pushing back Trump’s insults now (a finely timed “this is not how allies speak with each other” could actually have been tremendously impactful), but he has probably got the main calls correct so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG0pq3NlH0Y
They are all seriously out of kilter, and have lost their self-bullshit detectors.
(We can argue that it is just part of being from certain movements in the USA, but this alienation from reality subsuming Government is new._
We can always go to FPTP if you want.
So we're planning for a couple of trillion in expenditure, a decade of unrest in the region, and ten million or so refugees ?
The truth is that's it's completely unclear whether Trump wants regime change, or just a deal with the regime in a crippled Iraq, or something else.
Yes 45%
So he hasnt in any way got the big call right for me