The Greens are nearly first with YouGov – politicalbetting.com
The Greens are nearly first with YouGov – politicalbetting.com
At the start of January I tipped the Greens to lead in a YouGov poll in 2026 and this poll brings me great joy on that front. I suspect the Greens will get another boost after May’s locals.
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So, a question for the Greens. Are they going to be able to field enough candidates in May to make the sort of breakthrough results we saw with Reform that could translate into a more sustained boost?
I'm thinking yes in London, not a chance elsewhere? (Meaning finding enough candidates to make a 'breakthrough')
If ever there was a politician with the negative Midas touch!
It’s like the deserted cafeteria of a minor supermarket chain HQ in Dusseldorf in about 2010. Or maybe 2011
The process of actually getting them remains prohibitive it seems.
I understand why he’s dancing on the head of a pin and he put in one of his better performances yesterday .
However fast pass / priority security meant we skipped past all 150 other people to get to the lounge - 2 people escorting us all the way and bypassing every queue.
So lounge hilariously bad, other benefits removed all the stress from an Egyptian airport, to the extent I would pay the £22 if I didn’t get it for free
An extended period at the top would have an effect for an insurgent party even more than an established big player perhaps, by forcing the hand of whichever party they are eating into.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
We then come back to, most of the great powers prefer to keep their technology to themselves - because after all, there are risks in letting small and unstable powers get hold of nukes in case some dementia-addled strong man gets hold of them and blows things up to Show He Can. That's ultimately the real reason why nuclear non-proliferation has been enforced.
Neither of those apply immediately to Iran. All of the world's three largest nuclear powers are currently led by insane superannuated egomaniacs who may push the button anyway to dispel rumours about their button mushrooms. And getting one quickly, as a temporary measure to make the Yanks think twice while developing their own capacity looks attractive and given Iran's strategic importance to Russia plus Russia's financial problems would probably not be that hard.
So unless the regime is toppled and replaced by a sane government composed mostly of flying pigs, I think there are very real risks involved.
Boris Johnson Specials
Jeremy Corbyn Specials
Labour Party Leadership
Next Permanent Liberal Democrat Leader (Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count)
Next Permanent Reform UK Leader (To replace Nigel Farage)
Nigel Farage Specials
Party Leader Specials
Next Chancellor of The Exchequer
Next Permanent Conservative Party Leader (Caretaker Or Temporary Leaders Do Not Count)
Next London Mayoral Election
Next UK Prime Minister
UK - Next General Election
One imagines there is a rethink after severely underestimating the Greens at the by-election and in the polls.
Rumour has it that our bookies, who have been slowly expanding into America, are now looking with green eyes at the billions being raked in by Kalshi and Polymarket who have managed to get their markets regulated as derivatives (as in derived from the Wild West, where anything goes including blatant insider trading) rather than conventional bets.
Their is a bit of (purple haired) head scratching going on in our local branch. Along with a perceptive yet plaintive query about how we find another 600+ Hannahs.
Only one lounge in the airport, £20 ish to get in.
A couple of plates of salad, nothing but water or fizzy drinks, no alcohol. They did have some decent chairs and power outlets, but that’s about it.
Having come from one of the honeymoon resorts, it was a massive let down.
The problem is that blaming “billionaires”, people who have choices as to where they live and where they operate or list their companies, can very quickly make your country’s finances considerably worse for everyone.
Ask Francois Hollande. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-75percent-supertax
Surprise is Tory down 2 of the 4 uptick in Green vote.
Starmer departure will be after May but could be delayed if ww3 starts.
Tories look more sure on both polls to invoke leadership election
Be interesting to see first polls taken 2nd 3rd March to see if any impact of Starmer standing up to Trump.
Specific early polling suggest significant positive support for non aggression which could negatively impact Tories and reform as Trump ass lickers negatively.
Paradox though is starmer non aggression could see Green and LD benefit more than Labour.
This flux will only increase after May until Lab and Tory leadership changes
We could easily see
Green
Reform
Top 2
Lab
LD
Tory
3 to 5
From early May thru summer.
I don't envisage a levelling out until Autumn when some sort or reality and stability emerges based on new PM and new tory leader perceptions
I would not wish to have to choose between Reform v Green/Your Party/Workers Party, but I may very well face that choice, in Luton South, and if so, I would vote Reform.
https://x.com/mcccanm/status/2028735967121854970
That’s the second-highest level, means that basically the locals are shooting guns at planes. Apparently the Iranians have some vintage F-4s from before the Revolution, although how airworthy they are, and how many hours the pilots have on them, is open to discussion.
Trident is a total waste of time. A 2nd strike weapon we will only ever fire after we're already dead, assuming that the American dictator hasn't already removed our ability to do so. I'd be much happier with air-launched nukes instead.
Is the suggestion that the Greens would leave this country defenceless? Thanks to the LabCon we have a navy so enfeebled that Cyprus - a island we partially own - is having to be defended by the FRENCH.
If things were marvellous I could almost understand the argument that the Greens would screw things up. But we are already there.
Please don't tell me that the derivative status means that financial advisors/managers are pouring their clients' money into their gaping maws.
Shame the place in question was the Falkland Islands.
The Sun
Headline
‘TRUMP SKEWERS KEIR
Dithering Starmer is pandering to Muslim voters by not joining my Iran blitz, slams Trump’
Actual quote:
‘Asked about accusations Sir Keir is pandering to Muslim voters for political reasons, the President said “it could be.”
Interesting projections for the local elections, by ward. Pre-Gorton, of course, though I suspect local by elections offer a better guide than opinion polls.
I remember a biz class lounge in nairobi where people actually started fighting over the free tiny cheese packets. However it was still preferable to being in the main terminal which was basically a cholera ward of groaning sick people lying on floors
And if Iran holds out then the anti Americanism which exists throughout the region could start breaking out big time. My very multi cultural crew in Dubai told me that the big fear was a bombing outrage at which time the whole Disneyland could collapse like a pack of cards. I note that 14 countries have advised the Americans there to leave.
https://kalshi.com/browse
I’ve noticed lots of weird behaviour on all my devices when trying to use the net in China
https://x.com/nakuljosh/status/2028674403492573381
1) Free public education to 18
2) NHS
3) Abolition of rates (domestic housing)
4) Privatization of public utilities
5) Right to buy
6) University tuition fees
Future changes that would be effectively irreversible
1) Top-up or insurance payment for NHS
Israel has used the cover of the Iran War to launch a ground invasion of “strategic parts of Lebanon”.
All part of the plan.
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg5fmb2evc2p
I still remember last May sitting in a hotel in Ghent with colleagues chatting in the bar. Elderly gent looks across and asks "are you American?" We said "no, British" and he smiled: "oh good". Hmmmm, whatever did he mean...
If he is serious about being a Player in the 2029 Parliament, surely he needs to be in Westminster before then. (See Andy Capp-not-in-the-ring's problem of being trapped in Manchester.)
https://x.com/gerryhassan/status/2028602355172745304?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
https://x.com/dave43law/status/2028588204522180966?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
That's not entirely fair as viewed by us all who are closely engaged. But I can understand why people think so: in part it is because governing is difficult given fiscal constraints and demographic challenges.
So we end up being a position where a new party of the left and a new party of the right emerge who have a clearer message. Could the election end up being Green versus Reform fighting for first and second? Of course it could, with the traditional/centrist parties vote split three ways in the middle.
https://news.sky.com/story/britain-has-limited-means-to-fight-back-after-years-of-underinvestment-13514399
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
It’s a new PB rule it seems 🤷♂️
One other funny thing is the so-called ‘great firewall of China’ which sometimes might not fully block your web queries as divert them to somewhere else.
The greens riding high is absolute evidence of NOTA
May will be a critical time for the old parties and all of them may want a knee jerk reaction to replace their leaders including the lib dems but where are these shiny new leaders to change the narrative
Starmer was very good at the dispatch box yesterday if you want him to fall out with the US, but the defensive v offensive argument is dancing on the head of a pin
The other problem for Starmer is nobody likes him and he is in middle of a right v left argument he cannot win
However, in the absence of Burnham who is the one who will perform better
By general acclaim Kemi has improved, and apart from the handful of anti Kemi posters, who really thinks changing the leader will change the conservative's fortunes
Same with Ed Davey who is stuck and uninspiring, but where is his successor ?
Politics has changed and if the two ends of the horseshoe end up running the country then the IMF will be knocking at the door
*Kemi is a politician who attracks positive and negative headlines and like any politician must face stern critics, but there is a line and when we read irrational hatred defined as intense, illogical and enduring dislike of a person, often rooted in deeply held prejeudices, fear, or insecurity rather than reason. This form of behaviour asks the question why would anyone want to serve in public life ?