Marco Rubio's comments today need to be listened to, twice.
After the initial shock of Day 1 the Iranians still dont have a connected up effort such is the disruption to their commad & control and the personnel who should be running it. You see contrary statements and actions, especially around Iranian attacks on the GCC countries.
In addition the volume of attacks is a bit odd. Iran could launch hundreds of drones in a single wave to overwhelm defences but it appears to be in the low tens and the targeting seems scattered. That would suggest some issues, either that its hard to shoot and scoot or a lack of theater level control of operations
This might be further illustrated by the announcement of closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Effective so far with limited evidence of how they will enforce it but who actually announced it? It wasnt one of the big bosses, whoever they are today.
The targeting of those Gulf states has encouraged a lot of speculation about motive but I havent heard any talk around two possible & fairly obvious things. 1. Stretch the defensive screen by hitting widely , in terms of the geography and target profile and 2. This is essentially all tactics and no strategy with local commanders making calls.
There is obsession about a shortage of munitions, which is true to a point. the US & Israel are not really that short of offensive munitions and as they are sure of minimal risk, expect that to show. Bombs, including ones with guidance systems are not in short supply and are going to wreck Iranian facilities.
Given the decapitation, there's no very effective central government, surely ? I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?
A quiet night in Dubai, although Abu Dhabi and Ras al Khaimah did have air raid alarms. No reports of injuries on the ground.
The airport is open, and there’s a handful of flights arriving and departing - including EK1 that just took off heading for Heathrow, as airlines try to clear the backlog. Looks like the outbounds are just for tourists who were supposed to have left at the weekend, in co-ordination with hotels and embassies. Scheduled flights are supposed to resume this afternoon, but that may again be postponed.
Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO. The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global economic prosperity for more than 80 years. U.S. forces will continue to defend it.
Ships sailing freely through Hormuz now no Iranian navy?
Anyway, good to hear mission is accomplished. It will be as accomplished as last time.
Apparently the deaths of now four US service personnel were due to an Iranian missile attack on a base in Kuwait.
Also in Kuwait there were three F-15s inadvertently shot down yesterday morning, presumably some sort of communication failure between those operating the aircraft and those operating the air defences. Whoops. Thankfully crews all ejected and are safe.
BREAKING: Credible whistleblower discloses that FBI forensic experts were ordered to stand down from processing the scene where Renee Good was killed, because Kash Patel did not want Good referenced as a “victim” in the warrant.
It was treated as a crime scene by the Federal authorities where Good was treated as a perpetrator not a potential victim. But the agents who killed her got back in their vehicles and left the scene.
Marco Rubio's comments today need to be listened to, twice.
After the initial shock of Day 1 the Iranians still dont have a connected up effort such is the disruption to their commad & control and the personnel who should be running it. You see contrary statements and actions, especially around Iranian attacks on the GCC countries.
In addition the volume of attacks is a bit odd. Iran could launch hundreds of drones in a single wave to overwhelm defences but it appears to be in the low tens and the targeting seems scattered. That would suggest some issues, either that its hard to shoot and scoot or a lack of theater level control of operations
This might be further illustrated by the announcement of closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Effective so far with limited evidence of how they will enforce it but who actually announced it? It wasnt one of the big bosses, whoever they are today.
The targeting of those Gulf states has encouraged a lot of speculation about motive but I havent heard any talk around two possible & fairly obvious things. 1. Stretch the defensive screen by hitting widely , in terms of the geography and target profile and 2. This is essentially all tactics and no strategy with local commanders making calls.
There is obsession about a shortage of munitions, which is true to a point. the US & Israel are not really that short of offensive munitions and as they are sure of minimal risk, expect that to show. Bombs, including ones with guidance systems are not in short supply and are going to wreck Iranian facilities.
Given the decapitation, there's no very effective central government, surely ? I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?
I have not read everything on PB.
One credible view is that it is a strategy to impose cost on Gulf States by undermining their "safe home for the business elite" image, and to gum up the international travel hub and business.
That then becomes a vector to get the Gulf States to apply pressure to the USA and to Trump.
The Gulf is very significant is the Tump family's obtaining billions through corrupt dealings, so it could be a private pressure point, too.
As you say, perhaps it is tactical only, or limitation of capabilities, or perhaps it is a light pressure first tactic.
Do Britons think the UK government should praise or condemn the US for the Iran attacks?
Should condemn: 21% Should praise: 12% Should neither condemn nor praise: 45%
The UK prefers to sit on the fence.
45% of all UK voters and 47% of Labour voters think the UK should neither condemn nor praise the attacks on Iran, so Starmer by sitting on the fence is actually close to what a plurality of UK voters and voters of his own party want.
44% of Green voters, again a plurality, think the strikes should be condemned, so Polanski also in line for his voters.
39% of Reform voters think the UK should praise the US strikes, tied for a plurality with neither condemn nor praise, so Farage also about right in terms of what his voters want.
Davey a bit out of line though, he has opposed the US attacks but 44%, a plurality of his voters, neither condemn nor praise them and 30% condemn them.
Most out of line with her voters though is Kemi surprisingly, 60% of Conservative voters think the UK should neither condemn nor praise the attacks ie SKS's position, Kemi's praising the US attacks is backed by only 20% of Tory voters, even if only 8% of Tories condemn the US attacks Kemi might want to tone down the hawklike bomb the regime to bits line
She said we should have supported the US in the same way and crucially the same time as Canada
Apart from that, now Starmer has agreed the use of British bases there is not much difference in their position
She was curiously vehement about it, then.
Let's be clear, this wasn't a NATO, or some coalition operation. There was no joint planning countries other than Israel before it started - we weren't even consulted. And now Hegseth has announced they aren't bound by any "stupid rules of engagement" - so screw Amy civilian casualties being a constraint, I guess.
And Badenoch says we should have just been a good little poodle ?
I'm not convinced.
Once again you deny what Kemi said and when.
We all heard what she said.
Some of her backbenchers clearly heard what she said and were disgusted.
You cannot put a spin on what she said other than it was venomous, ass licking, not becoming of a serious politician and further evidence that whatever the tooic she will argue for the same of an arguement, that is a mental health trait that makes her totally unfit for the Office of PM.
Marco Rubio's comments today need to be listened to, twice.
After the initial shock of Day 1 the Iranians still dont have a connected up effort such is the disruption to their commad & control and the personnel who should be running it. You see contrary statements and actions, especially around Iranian attacks on the GCC countries.
In addition the volume of attacks is a bit odd. Iran could launch hundreds of drones in a single wave to overwhelm defences but it appears to be in the low tens and the targeting seems scattered. That would suggest some issues, either that its hard to shoot and scoot or a lack of theater level control of operations
This might be further illustrated by the announcement of closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Effective so far with limited evidence of how they will enforce it but who actually announced it? It wasnt one of the big bosses, whoever they are today.
The targeting of those Gulf states has encouraged a lot of speculation about motive but I havent heard any talk around two possible & fairly obvious things. 1. Stretch the defensive screen by hitting widely , in terms of the geography and target profile and 2. This is essentially all tactics and no strategy with local commanders making calls.
There is obsession about a shortage of munitions, which is true to a point. the US & Israel are not really that short of offensive munitions and as they are sure of minimal risk, expect that to show. Bombs, including ones with guidance systems are not in short supply and are going to wreck Iranian facilities.
Given the decapitation, there's no very effective central government, surely ? I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?
I have not read everything on PB.
One credible view is that it is a strategy to impose cost on Gulf States by undermining their "safe home for the business elite" image, and to gum up the international travel hub and business.
That then becomes a vector to get the Gulf States to apply pressure to the USA and to Trump.
The Gulf is very significant is the Tump family's obtaining billions through corrupt dealings, so it could be a private pressure point, too.
As you say, perhaps it is tactical only, or limitation of capabilities, or perhaps it is a light pressure first tactic.
Anyone thinking the Gulf States would do anything other than back the US and Israel to the hilt in this scenario, doesn’t know the Gulf region.
Iran’s going to be lucky to have a handful of AK-47s to call their military equipment by the end of this week, and if it takes a week of minor disruption to totally disarm what’s been the Middle East’s biggest problem for decades, then so be it.
Iran has about as much left of their air defences as Russia does around Novorossiysk, and the heavy bombers (B-1, B-52) are about to start obliterating military facilities.
Conservative US commentator Tucker Carlson has urged the US to "get [Benjamin Netanyahu] under control".
"Sorry, it's not antisemitism. This is a head of state whose decisions are getting Americans killed and affecting the history of the world and the fortunes, but also the future of the United States," Carlson said in his latest podcast on Tucker Carlson Network.
The former Fox News host added: "The United States has to say to the government of Israel, 'You are not in charge.' ...No administration has paid a higher price for going along than the current administration."
Carlson, a Trump ally, had lobbied against military action and even met with Trump at the White House several times to dissuade him from an attack, according to the New York Times.
Several US leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, had defended Washington's actions as "pre-emptive" because they knew Israel was going to strike - though Israel's PM Netanyahu's remarks appeared to suggest otherwise.
"Donald Trump is the strongest leader in the world. He does what he thinks is right for America," Netanyahu told Fox News on Monday night.
Looks like the US administration doesn’t know what it’s doing or why it’s doing it.
Instinct based on events so far is this will not topple the Iranian regime and whoever eventually emerges is (a) likely to be even more hardline than the fat old weirdo they’ve just nixed and (b) whether he is more hardline or not, will be desperate to get nukes, by buying from Russia if necessary, as an insurance against any repeat performance.
Comments
I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?
A quiet night in Dubai, although Abu Dhabi and Ras al Khaimah did have air raid alarms. No reports of injuries on the ground.
The airport is open, and there’s a handful of flights arriving and departing - including EK1 that just took off heading for Heathrow, as airlines try to clear the backlog. Looks like the outbounds are just for tourists who were supposed to have left at the weekend, in co-ordination with hotels and embassies. Scheduled flights are supposed to resume this afternoon, but that may again be postponed.
Meanwhile, a bunch of sheikhs walking casually around The Dubai Mall last night with almost no security. https://x.com/sajwani/status/2028548441283117567
In the Tanker War - 1981-1988 ish - it was a number of years before that was set up.
https://x.com/nakuljosh/status/2028674403492573381
(Includes UAE, Saudi, Oman).
Apparently the deaths of now four US service personnel were due to an Iranian missile attack on a base in Kuwait.
Also in Kuwait there were three F-15s inadvertently shot down yesterday morning, presumably some sort of communication failure between those operating the aircraft and those operating the air defences. Whoops. Thankfully crews all ejected and are safe.
It was treated as a crime scene by the Federal authorities where Good was treated as a perpetrator not a potential victim. But the agents who killed her got back in their vehicles and left the scene.
One credible view is that it is a strategy to impose cost on Gulf States by undermining their "safe home for the business elite" image, and to gum up the international travel hub and business.
That then becomes a vector to get the Gulf States to apply pressure to the USA and to Trump.
The Gulf is very significant is the Tump family's obtaining billions through corrupt dealings, so it could be a private pressure point, too.
As you say, perhaps it is tactical only, or limitation of capabilities, or perhaps it is a light pressure first tactic.
We all heard what she said.
Some of her backbenchers clearly heard what she said and were disgusted.
You cannot put a spin on what she said other than it was venomous, ass licking, not becoming of a serious politician and further evidence that whatever the tooic she will argue for the same of an arguement, that is a mental health trait that makes her totally unfit for the Office of PM.
Iran’s going to be lucky to have a handful of AK-47s to call their military equipment by the end of this week, and if it takes a week of minor disruption to totally disarm what’s been the Middle East’s biggest problem for decades, then so be it.
Iran has about as much left of their air defences as Russia does around Novorossiysk, and the heavy bombers (B-1, B-52) are about to start obliterating military facilities.
"Sorry, it's not antisemitism. This is a head of state whose decisions are getting Americans killed and affecting the history of the world and the fortunes, but also the future of the United States," Carlson said in his latest podcast on Tucker Carlson Network.
The former Fox News host added: "The United States has to say to the government of Israel, 'You are not in charge.' ...No administration has paid a higher price for going along than the current administration."
Carlson, a Trump ally, had lobbied against military action and even met with Trump at the White House several times to dissuade him from an attack, according to the New York Times.
Several US leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, had defended Washington's actions as "pre-emptive" because they knew Israel was going to strike - though Israel's PM Netanyahu's remarks appeared to suggest otherwise.
"Donald Trump is the strongest leader in the world. He does what he thinks is right for America," Netanyahu told Fox News on Monday night.
Instinct based on events so far is this will not topple the Iranian regime and whoever eventually emerges is (a) likely to be even more hardline than the fat old weirdo they’ve just nixed and (b) whether he is more hardline or not, will be desperate to get nukes, by buying from Russia if necessary, as an insurance against any repeat performance.