Marco Rubio's comments today need to be listened to, twice.
After the initial shock of Day 1 the Iranians still dont have a connected up effort such is the disruption to their commad & control and the personnel who should be running it. You see contrary statements and actions, especially around Iranian attacks on the GCC countries.
In addition the volume of attacks is a bit odd. Iran could launch hundreds of drones in a single wave to overwhelm defences but it appears to be in the low tens and the targeting seems scattered. That would suggest some issues, either that its hard to shoot and scoot or a lack of theater level control of operations
This might be further illustrated by the announcement of closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Effective so far with limited evidence of how they will enforce it but who actually announced it? It wasnt one of the big bosses, whoever they are today.
The targeting of those Gulf states has encouraged a lot of speculation about motive but I havent heard any talk around two possible & fairly obvious things. 1. Stretch the defensive screen by hitting widely , in terms of the geography and target profile and 2. This is essentially all tactics and no strategy with local commanders making calls.
There is obsession about a shortage of munitions, which is true to a point. the US & Israel are not really that short of offensive munitions and as they are sure of minimal risk, expect that to show. Bombs, including ones with guidance systems are not in short supply and are going to wreck Iranian facilities.
Given the decapitation, there's no very effective central government, surely ? I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?
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I've seen some commentary than Iran did done preparation for that outcome, and regional commanders were given a certain amount of autonomy should it happen. It that correct ?