London 2028: Reform v Green? – politicalbetting.com
London 2028: Reform v Green? – politicalbetting.com
In the 2024 London Mayoral election Zoë Garbett of the Greens finished fourth with 5.8% of the vote (albeit under the hugely flawed first past the post system) and in 2028 we should be back to supplementary vote system so I’d expect the Greens to do a lot better.
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Has got pretty nasty in past London elections, i expect that to increase.
I am hearing that Ayatollah Samail Alladani has been appointed caretaker Supreme Leader of Iran until the end of the season.
And in practical terms, it means that the last decade of Iran's attempted rapprochement with a number of its regional neighbours is in the dustbin.
(Also, Starmer' change in position is a small but prompt illustration of the costs of shooting back at countries which weren't involved in the original attack.)
Half the BBC are now comfortably ensconced on the fairly empty beaches of Tel Aviv. Waitress service in action. Happily none in Tehran where I'm told the hospitality is -and I quote-'Shit'. Keep the chat coming Anna. It might not be informative but it's always nice to hear stories from the front line.
I do expect him to tack fairly sharply leftward though. Certainly he can’t afford to be outflanked too much by someone going full Mamdani-style economic populist.
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
- Brent crude: $79.92, up 9.67%
- UK wholesale natural gas: $102.74 per therm, highest since the January cold snap
- FTSE 100: 10,807, down 1%
- GBP:USD 1.33, down 1 cent since the start of strikes
- UK 10-year gilt: 4.262%. Virtually unchanged from Friday lows
As of this morning, a fairly muted reaction.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
Qatar and Oman are really pissed off, the former is a longstanding Iranian ally and the latter was recently mediating the talks aimed at avoiding war.
GCC statement was pretty unequivocal, that the Gulf countries will defend themselves.
https://www.bna.bh/en/Statementissuedby50thextraordinarymeetingofGCCMinisterialCouncilregardingIranianaggressionagainstGCC.aspx?cms=q8FmFJgiscL2fwIzON1+DmEhn68EQ9/3znkw5qBy+ZE=
I did a tour of some Shanghai sites today, including the remarkable 1933 Slaughterhouse (thanks for the tip @edmundintokyo)
I spent most of the afternoon in the brilliant Yuyuan Market, then on the way out I thought "ah, better buy some red wine for the evening, to chill out with Netflix" (wine can be a pain to find in Shanghai)
As I walked along I saw an old cigarette shop and thought Hey, maybe - sometimes they also stock booze. So I went in and they had literally 14 bottles in a dusty corner, but amongst the 14 were 4 bottles of 2008 Vintage Barolo. Price? £9
2008 Barolo for £9??? i decided they were either counterfeit or presumably corked but on the off chance they might be the real deal, and drinkable, I bought two
I've just got them back to the hotel, opened one, and OMG, it is superb. And I checked the REAL price on Vivino - around £100 a bottle
Basically this little shop has no idea what it is selling. But now I have a dilemma. They have two bottles left, and of course I HAVE to go and buy them, but I've got to do it in a way that doesn't arouse *suspicion*. The exact same guy coming right back to buy the last two bottles two hours later? - maybe they will realise they've underpriced it by a billion times. But I reckon I can finesse it
When I said this was a cheering story, I meant cheering for ME, obvs
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Not sure that Iran bombing most of the GCC was on anyone’s immediate radar though.
Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Edited extra bit: btw, agree with your line of reasoning and have backed her accordingly.
Labour getting it from both ends, so to speak.
It's what they'd expect.
EEEEK
Restricted to £1.50 here.
But you've got all the benefit from it. You've got two bottles of vintage Barolo. Why not give the shopkeeper a bit of a windfall now and be honest about the quality of the wine. I bet they'd happily sell you the other two bottles for £20 a pop. That way both of you get an absolute bargain.
ETA: buying the other two for pittance won't feel nearly as good, you know that.
As was killing off the next 2 levels of Iran’s leadership which is the obvious outcome when you bomb the meeting everyone is attending
https://x.com/i/status/2028387011137089598
Embarassing stuff from Bobbins
The UAE has now burned through a significant chunk of an interceptor stockpile that took years to build — in 48 hours.
https://x.com/ka_grieco/status/2028198688250536223
Aside from the cost ratio (the defending systems, unless they're using lasers, cost at least 10x what they're shooting down), you simply can't build interceptor missiles as quickly as you can Shahed type drones.
And none of the gulf states yet have the more cost effective Ukrainian systems.
https://x.com/emiratessupport/status/2028364767929532708
That will be 96 hours of shutdown.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy0dp1l57nxt
https://www.flightradar24.com/25.75,53.45/7
Lucy Connolly
@LucyTCWife
·
32m
Wow, not shocked though.
Labour and Greens seem desperate to get the Muslim vote.
It’s becoming quite sinister.
With the not insignificant caveat we are still two years from the London Mayoral election, which is an eternity in politics, my immediate thought reading this was if this is the level of Tryl’s analysis, we probably shouldn’t take his polling too seriously.
I suspect the 2028 London Mayoral runoff will be between the Labour candidate (probably Khan) and the Conservative candidate (Seb Coe, James Cleverly or A.N Other). The question will then be whether the anti-Khan vote (which exists) will overcome any distaste for the opposing candidate.
Unless current events trigger a schism or a bulk defection from Labour to the Greens and assuming Badenoch can keep going, it’s hard to see either Laila Cunningham or the Green candidate making the top two.
Yes, either or both could finish first or second in particular Boroughs but neither has at this time significant London wide support to break the duopoly.
The locals in May will have some significance but with two years before the Mayoral contest, it would be unwise to make betting assumptions for London on whether Labour holds on in Newham.
https://www.abu-dhabi-airport.com/departures.php
Etihad do appear to be trying to get a few planes out this afternoon though.
Its engines are out, anyway.
Friendly fire a possibility:
..Some breaking news from Kuwait - a (sic) "several American fighter aircraft came down this morning", says Kuwait's Ministry of Defence.
The crews "survived unscathed", and were evacuated and transferred to hospitals for health checks, it adds, and confirms the conditions of the crews as "stable".
The Ministry of Defence adds that it is coordinating with its US ally regarding the "circumstances of the incident", and is continuing investigations into the "causes of the incident"...
Best wishes.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
https://x.com/amk_mapping_/status/2028345253405872170
Engine failure, or engaged by something? Can’t obviously see a missile on the video.
It is a long time until the mayoral vote, but trading bets could still make money in the shorter term. I imagine the odds on the Greens and Reform winning will shorten following the London borough elections. Where we will actually be, politically speaking, in 2028 is hard to know! It's possible that Reform will have completely eclipsed the Tories, so they will be seen as the obvious choice on the right. But then it's possible that Reform will have imploded, so 🤷♂️.
It's all bollocks, as we know, but it will help him.
They need to find someone similar though, someone ‘famous’ not as a politician, but with some serious administive experience behind them.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan or another Labour candidate on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate!
https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
I would consider voting for him.
https://x.com/etihad/status/2028406045983531081
There were apparently a couple of flights boarding.
Those leaving so far have been only cargo and positioning flights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWtwjDhgN3Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTWY14eyMFg&t=98s
https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/a-strait-comparison-lessons-from-the-dardanelles-for-a-strait-of-hormuz-closure/
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union.
Haven't they anyone of working age?