'Andy Burnham would forge an alliance with the Green Party and rip up the first-past-the-post electoral system if he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, supporters of the Manchester mayor have said.
Labour's devastating defeat in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has left his leadership rivals circling ominously, with Mr Burnham the favourite among both Labour voters and the wider electorate – even though he is not an MP...The research, by polling expert and former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, rates Mr Burnham as the 'best Prime Minister' among the Labour leadership contenders, on 27 per cent, ahead of Ed Miliband on 8 per cent, and Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting both on 6 per cent.
It also indicates that a coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Zack Polanski's Greens would beat a Tory/Reform UK coalition by 43 per cent to 33 per cent.
It is understood that Mr Burnham is trying to persuade Marie Rimmer, the veteran Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, to stand aside to let him return to the Commons...Separately, there are claims that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has privately told Mr Burnham that she would not put herself forward for the leadership role if he was a candidate.
However, she is said to be ready to do so to stop Health Secretary Wes Streeting getting the job if a contest began before Mr Burnham could return to the Commons.
Most Labour MPs believe that Sir Keir will not face a leadership challenge until after the May local elections.
Last night, Mr Burnham said the claims about him were 'made up'.
'Andy Burnham would forge an alliance with the Green Party and rip up the first-past-the-post electoral system if he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, supporters of the Manchester mayor have said.
Labour's devastating defeat in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has left his leadership rivals circling ominously, with Mr Burnham the favourite among both Labour voters and the wider electorate – even though he is not an MP...The research, by polling expert and former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, rates Mr Burnham as the 'best Prime Minister' among the Labour leadership contenders, on 27 per cent, ahead of Ed Miliband on 8 per cent, and Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting both on 6 per cent.
It also indicates that a coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Zack Polanski's Greens would beat a Tory/Reform UK coalition by 43 per cent to 33 per cent.
It is understood that Mr Burnham is trying to persuade Marie Rimmer, the veteran Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, to stand aside to let him return to the Commons...Separately, there are claims that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has privately told Mr Burnham that she would not put herself forward for the leadership role if he was a candidate.
However, she is said to be ready to do so to stop Health Secretary Wes Streeting getting the job if a contest began before Mr Burnham could return to the Commons.
Most Labour MPs believe that Sir Keir will not face a leadership challenge until after the May local elections.
Last night, Mr Burnham said the claims about him were 'made up'.
just feels like at every layer of the security/military/diplomatic washington circular world they passed on a note from their desk saying - no way, don't do it, christ, madness, play it safe, what if...
...and then it reached the King of Dementia.
The CIA apparently thinks he'll be replaced with an IRGC hardliner.
We've seen story after story being leaked where essentially the military and intelligence community are saying "it can get worse" but Trump needs an easy "win" to shut up the press for a while.
It is a win, no matter what.
Hopefully this leads to freedom. If a new dictator arises who is worse, then we should seek another win and eliminate him too.
Trump and Netenyahu couldn’t give a fig about the Iranian civilians . They’d happily make a deal with a weakened Iran as the bodies pile up in the streets .
"[UAE] defence forces have intercepted 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones launched toward the country. Fourteen of the drones that fell within the country's territories and waters caused "some collateral damage", it says.
That "lucky" debris, huh? Every Iranian missile must come with a built in rabbit's foot.
Although it is looking like Russia won't be getting any more Shaheed drone deliveries for the foreseeable. Shame.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
BBC "Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, says hundreds of people have been killed or injured in the US and Israel's “unprovoked and premeditated aggression against Iran"."
That Tehran Unprovocation-Meter might need some recalibrating. Turns out upscaling uranium to weapons-grade is quite provocative...
I can't entirely condemn Trump for his actions in Iran, but I certainly don't support them. I rather wonder quite what I'll make of his (lets hope) grand victory, and what also would I make of his humiliating defeat. I can only conclude that Trump exists in a sort of Schrodinger bubble.
I can. He's a fucking idiot listening to the voices in his head. Just as he has been doing since his regime came to power.
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
I worked at the UN for five years, covering it from headquarters, and I’ll tell you this: neither Russia nor Iran has ever looked so confused, so off-balance, and so lost in their statements. Russians were always brazen liars who shouted during meetings, attacking and insulting everyone at the UN Security Council table. They always behaved like overconfident bullies. But today, they acted almost as if they didn’t care. They were still lying, but they didn’t even seem to be trying anymore. I see it as a loss of morale.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
Isn't a massive amount of tactical voting already built into the baseline given the theme of 2024 was get the Tories out?
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform. Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
I can't entirely condemn Trump for his actions in Iran, but I certainly don't support them. I rather wonder quite what I'll make of his (lets hope) grand victory, and what also would I make of his humiliating defeat. I can only conclude that Trump exists in a sort of Schrodinger bubble.
I can. He's a fucking idiot listening to the voices in his head. Just as he has been doing since his regime came to power.
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
Oh good grief, what a negative Nancy.
Can you not just rejoice in the good news?
How about some positive possibilities?
What about the possibility the deceased dictator's successor is not as bad?
What about the possibility that Iran becomes a more free society?
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
Isn't a massive amount of tactical voting already built into the baseline given the theme of 2024 was get the Tories out?
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform. Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
Actually what I'm overlooking is seats like the Labour ones in Staffordshire (Stoke S, Tamworth, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, Utoxeter etc where the combined Tory/Reform vote was over 50% and maybe left of centre people there abandon Labour and vote Tory to stop Reform)
UAE Armed Forces says we faced 137 rockets and 209 Iranian drones since attack started.
Out 137, 132 of them destroyed, while 5 fell in sea. 209 drones were detected, 195 intercepted, 14 fell within the country's territories and waters, causing some collateral damage.
To be honest it’s not that bad, a few small fires quickly put out and, with the exception of one drone that hit the airport, only minor damage to anything. Life will continue to go on.
One now hopes that, with the death of the Ayatollah seemingly confirmed, things move quickly in Iran and a new order asserts itself. The brave people are the Iranians in the street celebrating tonight, may their country turn into a safe and prosperous plane in the future.
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian Assuming Ayatollah Khamenei is Dead, now comes the complicated part.
Does the U.S. allow his son/deputy to take power (as they did in Venezuela last month)?
Does the U.S. leave a power vacuum (as they did in Iraq)?
Does the U.S. occupy the country for a decade to stabilize it (as they did in Germany/Japan)?
Why would the USA be in a position to impose any of those?
Trump has already made clear that ground forces are not a serious option. Given that Iran is 2.5x as big as Ukraine with 2.5x the population, that is the first rational thing he has said.
If they had their way, and were listening to foreign policy and diplomacy people, rather than the ignorant, brain-dead munchkins Trump has deliberately surrounded himself with, it would be create a ost-Mullah Government by incorporating the regular armed forces into the new regime.
That duality is roughly like the Wehrmacht vs the SS, the latter being ideological like the IGRC.
They comprehensively f*cked up Iraq by insisting on demolishing the entire existing regime.
Trump is such a moron that he could ignore the lesson of Iraq,
But I do not see that he is in a position to have decisive leverage.
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Who knows what Trump thinks or what he'll think tomorrow (which is barely connected and depends which of his scheming courtiers spoke to him last) but doesn't this work?
- Iran chooses a new leader - Trump talks to him on the phone - They re-sign the Obama deal - Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil - Victory!
Well, after mostly sleeping okayish I made the mistake of stretching, which my shoulder take as a sign that pain would be fun, so I got up at 4.30am. Good practice for next weekend.
Anyway, I'm sure reading the news will take my mind off things and relax me.
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Who knows what Trump thinks or what he'll think tomorrow (which is barely connected and depends which of his scheming courtiers spoke to him last) but doesn't this work?
- Iran chooses a new leader - Trump talks to him on the phone - They re-sign the Obama deal - Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil - Victory!
I don’t think Trump gave it much thought - I suspect Israel brought everything forward when they discovered they knew yesterday morning where everyone was so now was the perfect time to launch the attack.
Remember we asked yesterday morning why now in daylight? The answer to that question explains everything.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
Two assumptions, one correct, one fatally not.
a) a large attack was imminent, so they needed to work out what to do once it came about
b) that attack would - as with previous attacks on Iran, and on Venezuela - be at night.
So the core power of Iran was sat around a large table. They would have been mid-sentence as the missiles slammed in.
Which means the potential replacement tiers of leadership would have gone. Plus, they wouldn't have atually reached the strategic decisions on what to do next that could be passed to those outside the room.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
The new Ayatollah might be a Mossad agent
It would be of more practical benefit if they all started thinking everyone else was a Mossad agent.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
That doesn’t have to be human. They could have tapped communications by - say - selling them phones.
I agree it’s possible, just that Ahmadinejed has a Crucible-like tendency to implicate everyone in Jewish conspiracies.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would have been an interesting meeting of the inaugural "Let's find all the Israeli spies" grouping.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
The new Ayatollah might be a Mossad agent
That inaugural speech to the nation by the new President of Iran:
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I don’t think you could have Reform-Con: it would cement Cons as the junior partner. They might be willing to do Con-Reform but doubt that Nigel would go for that…
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
And that only works as long as neither the wetter bits of the Conservative party nor the drier bits of Reform flake off when presented with the compromises of coalition.
It's a bit like the paradox of choice in supermarkets- the way that having ten subtle variants of Wheetie Flakes on the shelf doesn't make us happier. I suspect the same might be true of dating apps. Politically, we're all much clearer what we don't want than what we're OK with.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I don’t think you could have Reform-Con: it would cement Cons as the junior partner. They might be willing to do Con-Reform but doubt that Nigel would go for that…
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government? We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government? We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
You omitted appease. The lessons of history are clear
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
Good morning, everybody.
The Blackshorts?
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting in the same Cabinet.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
That doesn’t have to be human. They could have tapped communications by - say - selling them phones.
"Only later did the senior levels of Iranian intelligence discover that the Zoom they had all installed was actually a homing device for Israeli missiles..."
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
Good morning, everybody.
The Blackshorts?
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting in the same Cabinet.
When it comes to the right wing, we should always call a Spode a Spode.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
That doesn’t have to be human. They could have tapped communications by - say - selling them phones.
"Only later did the senior levels of Iranian intelligence discover that the Zoom they had all installed was actually a homing device for Israeli missiles..."
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
Good morning, everybody.
The Blackshorts?
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting in the same Cabinet.
When it comes to the right wing, we should always call a Spode a Spode.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Perhaps. The very militant leaders of Rome were a mixed bunch. Septimius Severus was very smart, his son Caracalla got himself assassinated by being a bully and throwing his weight around. Maximian, the Thracian shepherd, didn't last long but did help kick off a bout of infighting.
If it's a general, other generals might think "Why not me?"
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
They don’t have to block the Straits of Hormuz. Just sabre rattle and make it uninsurable, or the premiums too high.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
Whoever takes over in Iran, and whatever the situation on sanctions, they still face running out of water.
There is no obvious or easy solution to that, certainly not in the timeframes available, and it will cause a refugee crisis on its own.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
Whoever takes over in Iran, and whatever the situation on sanctions, they still face running out of water.
There is no obvious or easy solution to that, certainly not in the timeframes available, and it will cause a refugee crisis on its own.
The last thing Europe wants is a surge in people trying to leave Iran . Of course Trump really doesn’t care about this as it won’t effect the USA .
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
My contempt for Starmer knows no limits as regular visitors to this website will know. The decision not to allow Burnham to stand was totally consistent with Starmer's philosophy of hating all others and loving himself. But it was also an act of monumental stupidity made by Starmer who is a monumentally stupid person.
He should just have let Burnham stand, end of, and end of Starmer's problem. The VERY worst that could have happened for Starmer as a Labour leader would have been for Labour to have held their sixth safest seat. But, that would never have happened. Not winning would have finished Burnham for ever, vide Patrick Gordon Walker. This was the best opportunity Starmer would ever have had to have been rid of Burnham.
Handy tip Keir. Nest time some fake MP resigns for some fake concocted reason, let Burnham stand. You can sit back and enjoy the show.
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
My contempt for Starmer knows no limits as regular visitors to this website will know. The decision not to allow Burnham to stand was totally consistent with Starmer's philosophy of hating all others and loving himself. But it was also an act of monumental stupidity made by Starmer who is a monumentally stupid person.
He should just have let Burnham stand, end of, and end of Starmer's problem. The VERY worst that could have happened for Starmer as a Labour leader would have been for Labour to have held their sixth safest seat. But, that would never have happened. Not winning would have finished Burnham for ever, vide Patrick Gordon Walker. This was the best opportunity Starmer would ever have had to have been rid of Burnham.
Handy tip Keir. Nest time some fake MP resigns for some fake concocted reason, let Burnham stand. You can sit back and enjoy the show.
I feel you should come off the fence with regards to Sir Keir.
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
Rawnsley is right. Irrespective of what happens in Iran, Labour now look like the voters will treat them to the notion of being tied to horses galloping in different directions, their arms torn off by the Greens, their legs by Reform. Their torso of centrism is of no interest. A ghastly fate awaits them in two months.
And then they can go through the whole process again with a new leader later in the year. To use another analogy, they are the Prometheus of our times, destined to constantly have their liver pecked out by an eagle.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I don’t think you could have Reform-Con: it would cement Cons as the junior partner. They might be willing to do Con-Reform but doubt that Nigel would go for that…
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
Rawnsley is right. Irrespective of what happens in Iran, Labour now look like the voters will treat them to the notion of being tied to horses galloping in different directions, their arms torn off by the Greens, their legs by Reform. Their torso of centrism is of no interest. A ghastly fate awaits them in two months.
And then they can go through the whole process again with a new leader later in the year. To use another analogy, they are the Prometheus of our times, destined to constantly have their liver pecked out by an eagle.
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
Rawnsley is right. Irrespective of what happens in Iran, Labour now look like the voters will treat them to the notion of being tied to horses galloping in different directions, their arms torn off by the Greens, their legs by Reform. Their torso of centrism is of no interest. A ghastly fate awaits them in two months.
And then they can go through the whole process again with a new leader later in the year. To use another analogy, they are the Prometheus of our times, destined to constantly have their liver pecked out by an eagle.
Although, probably not Angela Eagle.
Very creatively put !
Labours voter coalition was already fracturing at the last election but was masked by the get out the Tories feel in the country .
They can no longer ride two horses . Their coalition of more metropolitan Liberal voters and more socially conservative but more economically left Old Red Wall voters is gone .
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
Rawnsley is right. Irrespective of what happens in Iran, Labour now look like the voters will treat them to the notion of being tied to horses galloping in different directions, their arms torn off by the Greens, their legs by Reform. Their torso of centrism is of no interest. A ghastly fate awaits them in two months.
And then they can go through the whole process again with a new leader later in the year. To use another analogy, they are the Prometheus of our times, destined to constantly have their liver pecked out by an eagle.
Although, probably not Angela Eagle.
As happened to the Conservatives in government. And is starting to happen to Reform before they even enter government.
Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !
Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
No idea of the reliability of the source, but factions scrambling to get their own man appointed in a fast moving situation would not be unexpected.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei's death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.
According to the sources speaking on condition of anonymity, the remaining IRGC command structure is seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1.
The sources said with airstrikes ongoing, it is not feasible to convene a session of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. As a result, the IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602285944
Ayatollah Khumenei, I'm thinking?
Listening to even some well informed commentators in the USA, they are calling the now ex-Ayatollah Khanemei, "Khomeini".
Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !
Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
If only that was what Farage wrote - instead it was a completely irrelevant and inaccurate claim about voting rigging attached to implied racism - for Farage is bright enough to imply racism without saying it out loud unlike say Tommy
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
IANAE, but from reports on Twitter there’s already talk of an off ramp being offered by the Trumpdozer.
Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !
Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
I look forward to Farage confirming that there ex pats who have been away for more than 5 years, one full parliamentary term, will also be denied a vote.
They are not citizens of the UK after all.
Ex Pat votes are a huge con, factory farming of votes, a complete con pun intended
No idea of the reliability of the source, but factions scrambling to get their own man appointed in a fast moving situation would not be unexpected.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is insisting on the swift appointment of the next leader of the Islamic Republic after Ali Khamenei's death, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.
According to the sources speaking on condition of anonymity, the remaining IRGC command structure is seeking to finalize the decision within the coming hours, specifically by dawn on Sunday, March 1.
The sources said with airstrikes ongoing, it is not feasible to convene a session of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader. As a result, the IRGC is pushing for the appointment of the next leader to take place outside the legally prescribed procedures. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602285944
Ayatollah Khumenei, I'm thinking?
Listening to even some well informed commentators in the USA, they are calling the now ex-Ayatollah Khanemei, "Khomeini".
Well it's quite a development whatever happens. At the moment it's "tyrannical old man takes out tyrannical old man" which is not quite enough for me to get the balloons out. But if - and what a big if this is - it leads to Iran throwing off the shackles of medieval theocracy that will be a joyful outcome.
Emirates airline has now cancelled all flights until 15:00L tomorrow, which suggests that the airspace is going to be closed to civilian operations until then.
I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
IANAE, but from reports on Twitter there’s already talk of an off ramp being offered by the Trumpdozer.
Iran will probably eventually take it .
Something with a lifting of sanctions eventually which will help placate the civilian population. That doesn’t address though the hideous human rights violations but the regime will think if economic conditions improve this might reduce the anti government sentiment .
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government? We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
You omitted appease. The lessons of history are clear
Comments
WW3 just started.
Can't get a double 6 if you don't roll the dice.
Or batting.
Now you are criticising any deal?
And presumably against no deal too.
Just what can be done that is right in your eyes?
"[UAE] defence forces have intercepted 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones launched toward the country. Fourteen of the drones that fell within the country's territories and waters caused "some collateral damage", it says.
That "lucky" debris, huh? Every Iranian missile must come with a built in rabbit's foot.
Although it is looking like Russia won't be getting any more Shaheed drone deliveries for the foreseeable. Shame.
That Tehran Unprovocation-Meter might need some recalibrating. Turns out upscaling uranium to weapons-grade is quite provocative...
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
https://x.com/KaterynaLis/status/2027897240589660430
I worked at the UN for five years, covering it from headquarters, and I’ll tell you this: neither Russia nor Iran has ever looked so confused, so off-balance, and so lost in their statements. Russians were always brazen liars who shouted during meetings, attacking and insulting everyone at the UN Security Council table. They always behaved like overconfident bullies. But today, they acted almost as if they didn’t care. They were still lying, but they didn’t even seem to be trying anymore. I see it as a loss of morale.
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform.
Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
Can you not just rejoice in the good news?
How about some positive possibilities?
What about the possibility the deceased dictator's successor is not as bad?
What about the possibility that Iran becomes a more free society?
Either way, today is good news. Rejoice.
https://x.com/PressTV/status/2027918822913491294?s=20
Well this is fun, it’s like being Ukraine again only without the snow. Emergency alerts waking us up just before 1am.
https://x.com/sajwani/status/2027865404388085793
UAE Armed Forces says we faced 137 rockets and 209 Iranian drones since attack started.
Out 137, 132 of them destroyed, while 5 fell in sea. 209 drones were detected, 195 intercepted, 14 fell within the country's territories and waters, causing some collateral damage.
To be honest it’s not that bad, a few small fires quickly put out and, with the exception of one drone that hit the airport, only minor damage to anything. Life will continue to go on.
One now hopes that, with the death of the Ayatollah seemingly confirmed, things move quickly in Iran and a new order asserts itself. The brave people are the Iranians in the street celebrating tonight, may their country turn into a safe and prosperous plane in the future.
Trump has already made clear that ground forces are not a serious option. Given that Iran is 2.5x as big as Ukraine with 2.5x the population, that is the first rational thing he has said.
If they had their way, and were listening to foreign policy and diplomacy people, rather than the ignorant, brain-dead munchkins Trump has deliberately surrounded himself with, it would be create a ost-Mullah Government by incorporating the regular armed forces into the new regime.
That duality is roughly like the Wehrmacht vs the SS, the latter being ideological like the IGRC.
They comprehensively f*cked up Iraq by insisting on demolishing the entire existing regime.
Trump is such a moron that he could ignore the lesson of Iraq,
But I do not see that he is in a position to have decisive leverage.
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
- Iran chooses a new leader
- Trump talks to him on the phone
- They re-sign the Obama deal
- Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil
- Victory!
Well, after mostly sleeping okayish I made the mistake of stretching, which my shoulder take as a sign that pain would be fun, so I got up at 4.30am. Good practice for next weekend.
Anyway, I'm sure reading the news will take my mind off things and relax me.
Ah...
Remember we asked yesterday morning why now in daylight? The answer to that question explains everything.
‘Hey, Guys. This is the best deal you’re going ever going to get. Why not get your team together to discuss it’
… and the rest is history
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/2027865806315434206
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
a) a large attack was imminent, so they needed to work out what to do once it came about
b) that attack would - as with previous attacks on Iran, and on Venezuela - be at night.
So the core power of Iran was sat around a large table. They would have been mid-sentence as the missiles slammed in.
Which means the potential replacement tiers of leadership would have gone. Plus, they wouldn't have atually reached the strategic decisions on what to do next that could be passed to those outside the room.
They really have cut off the head of the snake.
In an era where puppets could have very graphic sex!
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I agree it’s possible, just that Ahmadinejed has a Crucible-like tendency to implicate everyone in Jewish conspiracies.
Looking around the table. "Shalom..."
"People of Iran...shalom..."
Time for Brenda!
It's a bit like the paradox of choice in supermarkets- the way that having ten subtle variants of Wheetie Flakes on the shelf doesn't make us happier. I suspect the same might be true of dating apps. Politically, we're all much clearer what we don't want than what we're OK with.
Share...
Time to wheel out the 1974 joke;
Who governs Britain?
Not you.
Good morning, everybody.
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government?
We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting in the same Cabinet.
A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .
Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
If it's a general, other generals might think "Why not me?"
Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html
To rephrase: voters voted for a party that wasn't Farage's. That's how democracy usually works.
Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .
Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.
There is no obvious or easy solution to that, certainly not in the timeframes available, and it will cause a refugee crisis on its own.
https://x.com/_jonbrady/status/2027918651886600593?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
One cabinet member offered me this description of Labour’s strategy for hanging on to the [G&D] seat: “This is about killing the Greens and then slugging it out with Reform.” It was not that they gave up without a fight. The cabinet was dispatched to pound the pavements of a patch of Greater Manchester which was previously rock solid for their party. A senior figure sounded genuinely bullish when they told me that the party had “a more resilient brand up here”.
Only a byelection. Usual health warnings apply. Heidi Alexander, speaking for the “don’t panic” group in the cabinet, cautioned her party not to “over-interpret” the result. Yet this is self-evidently another body blow to Sir Keir’s battered premiership, and internal pressure to shift left is increasing and voluble. The party’s left is spoiling for a scrap with the bond markets that Rachel Reeves has been desperately trying to avoid, on the not entirely unreasonable grounds that the government will lose such a fight.
Would Andy Burnham’s strong personal standing in Manchester have been enough to beat back the Green surge? We’ll never know, but conjecture adds lustre to the mayor’s reputation and fuels recrimination about the decision to block him from standing.
The biggest problem for Sir Keir is that this shatters his overarching survival strategy. “Only Labour can stop Reform,” is a dud slogan when Sir Keir’s party gets handed the wooden spoon.
Byelections are often not a reliable guide to the next general election, especially so when it is likely to be three years away. This does look like the harbinger of a cataclysmic night for Labour in the spring elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere in England. Speaking to me on Friday, one cabinet member lamented: “The May elections are going to be a bigger version of what happened last night.” That prospect is what is now bringing on the fever dreams in Downing Street.
Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
"Both parents of one of Farage's great-grandfathers were Germans who immigrated to London from the Frankfurt area shortly after 1861...."
He should just have let Burnham stand, end of, and end of Starmer's problem. The VERY worst that could have happened for Starmer as a Labour leader would have been for Labour to have held their sixth safest seat. But, that would never have happened. Not winning would have finished Burnham for ever, vide Patrick Gordon Walker. This was the best opportunity Starmer would ever have had to have been rid of Burnham.
Handy tip Keir. Nest time some fake MP resigns for some fake concocted reason, let Burnham stand. You can sit back and enjoy the show.
Talk about London-centric.
Authentic patriots support Farage.
Therefore, if you don't support Farage, you're not an authentic patriot, and shouldn't be voting.
And then they can go through the whole process again with a new leader later in the year. To use another analogy, they are the Prometheus of our times, destined to constantly have their liver pecked out by an eagle.
Although, probably not Angela Eagle.
Or one of a series of increasingly shite sequels?
Labours voter coalition was already fracturing at the last election but was masked by the get out the Tories feel in the country .
They can no longer ride two horses . Their coalition of more metropolitan Liberal voters and more socially conservative but more economically left Old Red Wall voters is gone .
I don't know how this ends.
They are not citizens of the UK after all.
Ex Pat votes are a huge con, factory farming of votes, a complete con pun intended
Something with a lifting of sanctions eventually which will help placate the civilian population. That doesn’t address though the hideous human rights violations but the regime will think if economic conditions improve this might reduce the anti government sentiment .
We are not under direct threat.
We act with common sense and calm
https://x.com/franckentheo/status/2027902886714478969