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Why Ayatollah Khamenei should follow the betting markets (if he's still alive)

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,089

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foreign-born voters stole by-election, Farage blasts: Amid rising alarm over suspected poll fraud, Reform leader says allowing non-British citizens into ballot booth threatens democracy

    Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html


    Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
    What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !

    Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
    Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
    That analysis is poor.

    Farage is claiming “poll fraud”. Commonwealth and Irish citizens voting is not poll fraud, so either that’s not what he’s referring to, or he’s lying.

    Commonwealth and Irish citizens voting is not why Reform lost the Gorton & Denton by-election.

    There is a valid policy question of whether Commonwealth and Irish people resident in the UK should have the vote or not. The claim, however, was of a threat to democracy. Commonwealth and Irish people voting is not a threat to democracy, so Farage’s words are (if that’s what he’s referring to) hyperbole with the intent of stirring up racism.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,095

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foreign-born voters stole by-election, Farage blasts: Amid rising alarm over suspected poll fraud, Reform leader says allowing non-British citizens into ballot booth threatens democracy

    Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html


    Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
    What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !

    Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
    Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
    That’s fair enough but Farage is trying to sow more division because what he’s really trying to do is de-legitimise the votes of non-whites .

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,616
    I'd love to believe this heralds regime change, but there are lots of supporters of Theocracy in Iran who were on the streets last night chanting religious slogans and "death to America".

    I really hope another Ayatollah doesn't take his place, and instead the son of the Shah with reform would be nice, but sadly my working assumption is that there is a vacuum of chaos, and it'll be whichever ruthless strongman with the biggest muscle gets there first.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,954
    Khamenei’s enemy is my friend.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,789
    Just checking on that Iranian school where dozens of kids were slaughtered, the chat seems to have transitioned from ‘it was an Iranian missile that went of course’ to ‘there were IRGC hiding in the school’. Any updates from the fog of war dissipaters of PB?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,394
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foreign-born voters stole by-election, Farage blasts: Amid rising alarm over suspected poll fraud, Reform leader says allowing non-British citizens into ballot booth threatens democracy

    Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html


    Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
    What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !

    Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
    Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
    I look forward to Farage confirming that there ex pats who have been away for more than 5 years, one full parliamentary term, will also be denied a vote.

    They are not citizens of the UK after all.

    Ex Pat votes are a huge con, factory farming of votes, a complete con pun intended
    Farage wants to overturn the referendum result?
    Welcome if surprising news, but if your other policies are losing popularity then bringi back your big hit, I guess.

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,517
    Interesting article on the soon to be neglected again, Gorton and Denton, by Fraser Nelson

    This is a really key point many have missed, including many of us here. The Greens are a party of aspiration now.

    ‘ The winning candidate was not an Extinction Rebellion veteran but a striver who left school aged 16 and set up her own business. Spencer’s Household Plumbing did well enough for her to buy a second home and build an estimated £1.2 million property portfolio. In another era, this working-class hero would be a poster candidate for Labour or even the Tories. And yet here she is as a triumphant insurgent: the Green Party’s fifth MP.’

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/greens-asked-the-biggest-question-in-politics-09jwc7ljs
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,095

    Just checking on that Iranian school where dozens of kids were slaughtered, the chat seems to have transitioned from ‘it was an Iranian missile that went of course’ to ‘there were IRGC hiding in the school’. Any updates from the fog of war dissipaters of PB?

    The school was apparently very close to an IRGC building . We saw the same playbook in Gaza .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,089

    I'd love to believe this heralds regime change, but there are lots of supporters of Theocracy in Iran who were on the streets last night chanting religious slogans and "death to America".

    I really hope another Ayatollah doesn't take his place, and instead the son of the Shah with reform would be nice, but sadly my working assumption is that there is a vacuum of chaos, and it'll be whichever ruthless strongman with the biggest muscle gets there first.

    I don’t think there’ll even be a vacuum of chaos. I think there will be a relatively orderly transfer of power within the regime (as happened in Venezuela).
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,517
    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t see how this so called Assembly of Experts can meet in person . Choosing a leader without that could cause internal splits so maybe this is what the USA Israel are hoping for .

    A future leader could lack legitimacy. It seems as if the IRGC are pushing for one of their own to be leader and fast tracked without the Assembly .

    I suspect one of the IRGC is pushing for himself to become leader and is fast tracking accordingly.

    Somebody that quick thinking and ruthless could very easily be a dangerous opponent.
    Yes that’s what’s likely . We could end up with someone even worse than the previous one . The thing is Iran is severely weakened now so I expect in an effort to cling to power some deal will be cut eventually .

    Countries around Iran don’t want it to collapse . They just want a less annoying neighbour so any deal needs to aim for stability and an eventual lifting of sanctions .

    Economic hardship has been one of the reasons behind the recent instability.

    IANAE, but from reports on Twitter there’s already talk of an off ramp being offered by the Trumpdozer.
    Iran will probably eventually take it .

    Something with a lifting of sanctions eventually which will help placate the civilian population. That doesn’t address though the hideous human rights violations but the regime will think if economic conditions improve this might reduce the anti government sentiment .
    I saw something, I wish I could find again, which went along these lines and suggested a final deal similar to Obama’s with Trump claiming victory.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,314
    stjohn said:

    Khamenei’s enemy is my friend.

    Your genocidal friend Benjamin needs a good kick up the arse
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,585

    I'd love to believe this heralds regime change, but there are lots of supporters of Theocracy in Iran who were on the streets last night chanting religious slogans and "death to America".

    I really hope another Ayatollah doesn't take his place, and instead the son of the Shah with reform would be nice, but sadly my working assumption is that there is a vacuum of chaos, and it'll be whichever ruthless strongman with the biggest muscle gets there first.

    I don’t think there’ll even be a vacuum of chaos. I think there will be a relatively orderly transfer of power within the regime (as happened in Venezuela).
    Vielleicht.

    A year or two ago a helicopter crash took out one of two potential successors to the then Supreme Leader. Believe it was the president, who had been visiting Azerbaijan or Armenia on a diplomatic mission. I think the other one is/was his son (ironic, given the regime's longstanding opposition to the hereditary monarchies elsewhere in the Middle East).
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,517
    Sandpit said:

    Emirates airline has now cancelled all flights until 15:00L tomorrow, which suggests that the airspace is going to be closed to civilian operations until then.

    This must be costing the airport operator a hell of a lot of money in lost revenue too. It’s the world’s busiest international airport. Doha is closed too.

    I do wonder if the Iran strategy of trying to harm US allies economically to exert pressure on the US along with the lack of appetite for conflict by the citizens of the US may make this conflict short lived and Trump would look for an off ramp that he can present as total victory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,570

    NEW THREAD

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,789
    nico67 said:

    Just checking on that Iranian school where dozens of kids were slaughtered, the chat seems to have transitioned from ‘it was an Iranian missile that went of course’ to ‘there were IRGC hiding in the school’. Any updates from the fog of war dissipaters of PB?

    The school was apparently very close to an IRGC building . We saw the same playbook in Gaza .
    Possibly only hours away from a massive underground control base under the school.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,314
    Terrifying developments on BBC breakfast. I just woke up to Rachel Burdens pants.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,776

    I'd love to believe this heralds regime change, but there are lots of supporters of Theocracy in Iran who were on the streets last night chanting religious slogans and "death to America".

    I really hope another Ayatollah doesn't take his place, and instead the son of the Shah with reform would be nice, but sadly my working assumption is that there is a vacuum of chaos, and it'll be whichever ruthless strongman with the biggest muscle gets there first.

    Well that's what the CIA think. Apparently though Trump knows better.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,517

    Terrifying developments on BBC breakfast. I just woke up to Rachel Burdens pants.

    In the US sense or U.K. sense !!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,733
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foreign-born voters stole by-election, Farage blasts: Amid rising alarm over suspected poll fraud, Reform leader says allowing non-British citizens into ballot booth threatens democracy

    Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html


    Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
    What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !

    Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
    Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
    I look forward to Farage confirming that there ex pats who have been away for more than 5 years, one full parliamentary term, will also be denied a vote.

    They are not citizens of the UK after all.

    Ex Pat votes are a huge con, factory farming of votes, a complete con pun intended
    Citizens do not have to be residents and residents don’t have to be citizens. They are different concepts
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,733

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Foreign-born voters stole by-election, Farage blasts: Amid rising alarm over suspected poll fraud, Reform leader says allowing non-British citizens into ballot booth threatens democracy

    Mail front page promoting Farage's all-out racism. Note Farage's elision that the voters weren't actually British citizens


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602431/Foreign-born-voters-stole-election-Farage-rising-alarm-suspected-poll-fraud-Reform-leader-British-citizens-ballot-democracy.html


    Two of my kids were born abroad. Maybe Farage won't let them vote.
    What Farage wanted to say is only white people should be allowed to vote !

    Reform are a cancer on the country and need to be destroyed .
    Irrespective of their colour (which is irrelevant) there is a reasonable case that Commonwealth (and Irish) citizens shouldn’t get the vote. It’s not unreasonable to limit the vote to citizens
    That analysis is poor.

    Farage is claiming “poll fraud”. Commonwealth and Irish citizens voting is not poll fraud, so either that’s not what he’s referring to, or he’s lying.

    Commonwealth and Irish citizens voting is not why Reform lost the Gorton & Denton by-election.

    There is a valid policy question of whether Commonwealth and Irish people resident in the UK should have the vote or not. The claim, however, was of a threat to democracy. Commonwealth and Irish people voting is not a threat to democracy, so Farage’s words are (if that’s what he’s referring to) hyperbole with the intent of stirring up racism.

    I only saw the Mail’s reporting so don’t know how accurate it was, but the claim as reported was ridiculous and bordering on racism by insinuation.

    I was just making the point that you made in the first sentence of paragraph 3.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,336
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Emirates airline has now cancelled all flights until 15:00L tomorrow, which suggests that the airspace is going to be closed to civilian operations until then.

    This must be costing the airport operator a hell of a lot of money in lost revenue too. It’s the world’s busiest international airport. Doha is closed too.

    I do wonder if the Iran strategy of trying to harm US allies economically to exert pressure on the US along with the lack of appetite for conflict by the citizens of the US may make this conflict short lived and Trump would look for an off ramp that he can present as total victory.
    I'd say the initial strategy will be as per Ukraine in Russia and Russia in Ukraine: increase vulnerability by making them use their defence missiles.

    Plus if the US and Israel are planning to o after all the stocks in their storage spots, it perhaps makes sense to use a signifi9cant number now.

    Even after the limited attacks by Iran last year, there was a significant use of missiles and a significant drain on even US backup stocks.
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