Very briefly punters had more faith in Polanski than Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Very briefly punters had more faith in Polanski than Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
On the previous thread I thought tomorrow we might see a crossover on the the most seats market between the Tories and the Greens but it has happened sooner, the question is whether this becomes the norm rather than the exception.
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Third, like Reform.Fourth, like the ToriesAt what point do we need a new electorate instead of new politicians?
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writer’s Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
Spanish border force to patrol Gibraltar under Brexit deal
UK-EU treaty breaks previous pledge for no boots on the ground
Spanish border guards will be able to patrol Gibraltar under the Rock’s Brexit deal, breaking a previous pledge for no boots on the ground.
Officers will be handed the power to carry out surveillance at the airport and port of the British overseas territory, as well as to stop unlawful crossings, arrest illegal migrants and deport them.
Spanish guards will have the right to “arrest, search, detain, interview, place under protection a person, or seize or search property, where it is justified in the course of border control”.
The deal also allows Spanish police to pursue criminals who flee to the Rock. Spanish officers are armed, as are Gibraltarian officers, who will also be able to cross into Spain under “hot pursuit” rules.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/26/spanish-border-force-patrol-gibraltar-under-brexit-deal/
But Reform vs Green? Uh oh.
Mark Reckless
@MarkReckless
Three and a half hours to go for @GoodwinMJ in Gorton and Denton
https://x.com/MarkReckless/status/2027089321702928833
Yes. I recall when the police became indignant that selling people’s police records for £50 a time to journalists and private eyes was being stopped.
@BNHWalker
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32m
The indications are turnout is very good, relatively. As good as 2024 or higher.
https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2027117355621335416
If we look at the Lib Dems they seem to be isolated in about 100, mostly traditionally Tory, seats, and it looks like it will be very hard for the Lib Dems to break out of that.
My assumption is that the Greens are similarly demographically siloed mostly in core Labour seats, and so it becomes almost impossible to see them winning more than a fifth of the seats, and therefore they cannot win most seats even in a five-way split of politics.
Lloyds stops opening bank accounts for customers at branches
Campaigners warn high streets ‘are being hollowed out’ as lender drives customers to app
Britain’s biggest bank is to stop opening accounts for customers at its branches and instead force them to go online.
Lloyds Bank’s staff will no longer open joint, premium or student accounts in branches or switch customers from another lender – a move that critics warned signalled “the death of branch banking”.
Instead, staff will direct customers to use its app and website, according to internal documents seen by The Telegraph.
It comes as the bank shuts more than 100 branches across the country, adding to the 1,470 sites it has already closed over the past decade. Last week, Lloyds scrapped the option for customers to deposit cheques at the Post Office despite the closures.
Martin Quinn, of the group Campaign for Cash, said: “In-person bank branch services are vital for consumers. People do not want to talk to a machine, they want to deal with real people.
“High streets up and down the country are being hollowed out by shop closures and removing more face to face banking services is a real kick in the teeth.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/26/lloyds-stops-opening-accounts-for-customers-at-branches/
I expect the gradual decline in both over the coming months and years
Insider posting
https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2027114213450133692
Always good to see an improvement in turnout. I hope he hasn't been hoodwinked by claims of brisk turnout though.
Right up until I looked up the details of "1, Buckingham Place" as I was a fan of the original 'The Prisoner' TV series. And on my green-screen terminal it just showed "THIS REQUEST HAS BEEN LOGGED".
At which point I squeaked and switched off my terminal.
Was quite a while later I realised it was probably an equal geek on the other side who'd hard-coded the response as they were also a Prisoner fan.
Political betting can also be skewed by candidates betting heavily on themselves to try to influence the outcome. Clement Freud was famous for doing this successfully, dropping his odds and eventually winning the seat. He later became infamous for more unsavory things, but for a while he was known for his gambling.
Absolutely no point if Greens win this by-election.
Makes the business case for switching to issuing repayments directly to bank accounts a bit harder too.
* I was pleasantly surprised that HMRC deposited my tax refund directly into my bank account when I moved to Ireland from Britain.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
It was left to each of us to figure it out. Corbyn had won with 14. Sultana had seven. There were independents. So while at a national level Jezza and Zarah would be jointly in charge, Corbyn would be the leader in the Commons.
This was a work of some genius. Because Corbyn officially identifies himself as an Independent MP, Sultana is the only MP who claims to represent Your Party. So Jeremy is now the leader of a party to which he doesn’t belong. Politics as a piece of inspired performance art. It makes you proud to be British.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/26/the-your-party-committee-election-was-chaos-why-break-the-habit-of-a-lifetime
There was at least a model of sorts of Stonehenge lowered onto the stage.
YourParty would be an empty piece of string.
Win or lose tonight won't define them nor any other Party.
The more scrutiny the Greens get the more the bubble will deflate.
YP has been a hilarious mess from the start, a confusing clash of ego and pig headedness.
And i wished them well! Clearly a lot of people had been excited after all.
Because seeing the result you want has some monetary value to you, a combination of real economic benefit (getting policy decisions that might benefit you) and celebratory benefit.
Thus, to maximise your economic return, you must factor in the NEV of the result you want and compensate by betting disproportionately on results that you do not want. Thus, if you get a disappointing result, you’re in the money and can go spend your winnings to drown your sorrows, and if you get the result you want, well happy days, regardless.
This is where our leading value better, young Casino, often goes wrong.
https://x.com/Saffiya_Khan1/status/2027014696176619854/photo/1
That said: I always loved this joke - https://youtu.be/UeGZkxp5yoM?si=NOCZ17R8QEW0QU7l
https://x.com/tacticalchoice_/status/2026807564235669734
Reform have less direct pedigree but plenty of indirect through earlier iterations, and so could even be more vulnerable despite surging to much higher support.
But I think the Greens have only lately dreamed of replacing Labour, and so it's a new idea for voters who will probably return home.
Whereas Reform has always intended to kill and replace the Tories, even though 50% of Tories are in denial about it. So their voters may prove stickier as some who switch at least have a goal in mind, not just protest.
Very poor stuff somebody clearly deliberately misleading the anti Reform voters, not sure who now!!
Tactical Choice is a ficticious tactical voting group, apparently invented by Labour during this by-election campaign.
huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-a…
Two real tactical voting organisations have recommended voting Green to stop Reform.
tactical.vote/gorton-and-den…
stopthetories.vote/parl/gorton-an…
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Because as far as I can see, there are far too many "safeguards" not too few.
Where are the provisions for assisting people with years of suffering ahead of them? The asinine 6 month "safeguard" should be abolished.
Where are the provisions for living wills, so that people facing (or having) dementia could have their wishes respected, by giving clear and unambiguous legally-binding decisions ahead of time while they are capable of doing so?
I can say very clearly the "safeguards" that should be abolished. We should not require 6 months, and we should not require someone to be capable of saying what they want when they are not capable of doing so anymore, they should be able to sign living wills in advance, like you can sign a DNR in advance.
I have yet to see anyone say what "safeguards" they desire which are not present, merely vague BS about "its not safe" or "coercion" or other nonsense without any specific actionable safeguards.
Someone is having fun...
Most unusual goes straight to The Green Party.
Knew that anti-online fraud seminar would come in useful.
Green 1.45
Reform 5.8
Lab 6.8
10 mins to poll close
If the Greens win then you could win the lottery.
If the Greens win Putin could decide to withdraw to his 1991 borders, apologise for all his misdoings, and board a plane to the Hague.
It could happen. It won't, but it could.
By-elections mean nothing major, whatever the result it is a by-election, don't read much into it.
Reform 5.9
Lab 6.9
7 mins to poll close
https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/2026341334546575513
It has been a source of amusement and amazement that The Greens have gathered a coalition of malcontents from Momentum, The Northern Independence Party, aided and abetted by Your Party, The Workets Party. before adding vote Reform get Modi, Netanhayu, Trump and the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
For some odd reason Matt Goodwin's slogan of Community, Family and Country reminded me of Petain.
My result prediction from yesterday was Green 31.8%, Ref 29.9%, Lab 28.8%.
Reform 5.6
Lab 6.6
0 mins to poll close
We have a winner we just dont know who
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.