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What will this betting market look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050
    Foxy said:
    Isn't the waiting the point?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025
    Trump joke 'overshadows' US women's Olympic success

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/ice-hockey/articles/cwy89l9nz7jo
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050
    Does Nick Buckley save his deposit? That would be a fun market.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025

    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk
    Brixian
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,804

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    There's probably not a lot of point in knocking up potential voters after 9pm or so on a rainy evening.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,548

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025
    Roger said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
    Here's one. All Israelis.....and all too typical

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CJmusA69ME
    London Islamic Mob ATTACK Christian Activist Young Bob in Whitechapel:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQj0iPR9ajg
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,282

    Trump joke 'overshadows' US women's Olympic success

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/ice-hockey/articles/cwy89l9nz7jo

    To me it was really strange to see a draft dodger handing out a Medal of Honour at a political event.

    But that's Trump.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 863

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,282

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    The explosion will be interesting if the Greens lose to Reform by say ... 6 votes.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,714
    Is this the greenest govt ever giving those with solar panels a pay cut?


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,024
    EU open investigation into Mandelson
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    a

    Roger said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
    Here's one. All Israelis.....and all too typical

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CJmusA69ME
    London Islamic Mob ATTACK Christian Activist Young Bob in Whitechapel:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQj0iPR9ajg
    I recall when a London mosque was attacked by… Islamicists. Which they then took over by force.

    The previous management were apparently too nice for them - too much being nice to other people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,282

    Scott_xP said:

    EU’s anti-fraud agency set to investigate Peter Mandelson
    Probe into former commissioner for trade is expected to be wide-ranging
    https://www.ft.com/content/85b94fbb-c082-4b9d-b153-39ded2e8b4ca

    When you catch someone for a crime, it is very unusual that it is their first and only time.

    There have been a fair number in the past.

    Is this different from Farage's 40k or so Euro of MEP expenses?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,024
    isam said:

    Is this the greenest govt ever giving those with solar panels a pay cut?


    The government reduces my bill by £10 per month and then reduces my solar panel income by same

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,491
    Larry Summers – lol – was born into economics royalty. Uncles on both his father's and mother's sides were, separately, Nobel prize laureates (Paul Samuelson and Kenneth Arrow)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    Back when I did some canvassing, the people leading the canvas would set a hard stop time - I seem to recall 7:30pm
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
    "SHIT OUR ODDS ARE STILL TIGHTENING WE ARE FUCKING LOSING I TELL YOU"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EU’s anti-fraud agency set to investigate Peter Mandelson
    Probe into former commissioner for trade is expected to be wide-ranging
    https://www.ft.com/content/85b94fbb-c082-4b9d-b153-39ded2e8b4ca

    When you catch someone for a crime, it is very unusual that it is their first and only time.

    There have been a fair number in the past.

    Is this different from Farage's 40k or so Euro of MEP expenses?
    40K, you say…

    I recall, that after the U.K. parliamentary expenses scandal, the European Parliament took immediate action. And made it illegal to leak *their* expenses.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    We were canvassed by Percy Grieve in 1979. However in all the time I’ve been moved out I’ve never been canvassed once. Even when I saw Luke Akehurst was on the estate canvassing (on Facebook) last,election no one came here.

    My sister had Jess Phillips knock her door last election. She told her she was about to go to work and was too busy. Didn’t go down too well with Ms Phillips.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,548
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    I was canvassed by Labour during the campaign for the Ealing Southall by-election. He was flummoxed when I announced that I was a party member (me still being part of my branch up north).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    edited 4:58PM

    EU open investigation into Mandelson

    Somewhere between inevitable and logical.

    He will have been doing to their secrets what he did to ours.

    If nothing else, you’d want to figure out what had been leaked.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,403
    edited 5:00PM
    What are the chances of a recount in Gorton & Denton? Quite high you'd think.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,779
    edited 5:01PM
    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.
    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,963
    Taz said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    We were canvassed by Percy Grieve in 1979. However in all the time I’ve been moved out I’ve never been canvassed once. Even when I saw Luke Akehurst was on the estate canvassing (on Facebook) last,election no one came here.

    My sister had Jess Phillips knock her door last election. She told her she was about to go to work and was too busy. Didn’t go down too well with Ms Phillips.

    I've never been canvassed.
    During the Wythenshawe and Sale East by election a while back, I remember the seeing the Conservative house knock on next door, look at my house, frown, and stomp off the other way. I don't know what to conclude from that. I didn't have any political signs up or anything. I don't think my house looks inherently hostile to conservatives.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,136
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    We were canvassed by Percy Grieve in 1979. However in all the time I’ve been moved out I’ve never been canvassed once. Even when I saw Luke Akehurst was on the estate canvassing (on Facebook) last,election no one came here.

    My sister had Jess Phillips knock her door last election. She told her she was about to go to work and was too busy. Didn’t go down too well with Ms Phillips.

    I've never been canvassed.
    During the Wythenshawe and Sale East by election a while back, I remember the seeing the Conservative house knock on next door, look at my house, frown, and stomp off the other way. I don't know what to conclude from that. I didn't have any political signs up or anything. I don't think my house looks inherently hostile to conservatives.
    Red curtains?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,136
    viewcode said:

    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.


    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
    I have the ominous combination of strong urge to bet plus no feel for where the value is.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050
    Quarterly migration stats are out! https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2025/summary-of-latest-statistics

    in the YE December 2025 there were 9,900 enforced returns, an increase of 21% compared with the previous year, continuing an increase seen since 2020

    in the YE December 2025 there were 28,000 voluntary returns, an increase of 5% compared with the previous year, mainly driven by an increase in asylum-related returns and assisted returns

    there were 5,600 FNO [foreign national offender] returns in the YE December 2025, an increase of 11% compared to the previous year
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050

    Quarterly migration stats are out! https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2025/summary-of-latest-statistics

    in the YE December 2025 there were 9,900 enforced returns, an increase of 21% compared with the previous year, continuing an increase seen since 2020

    in the YE December 2025 there were 28,000 voluntary returns, an increase of 5% compared with the previous year, mainly driven by an increase in asylum-related returns and assisted returns

    there were 5,600 FNO [foreign national offender] returns in the YE December 2025, an increase of 11% compared to the previous year

    101,000 people claimed asylum in the YE December 2025, 4% less than the previous year

    and

    there were 168,000 visas granted to main applicants in all work categories in the YE December 2025, 19% fewer than the previous year and 50% fewer than in the YE December 2023 when the number of work visas peaked

    work-related visa grants have decreased over the last 2 years, largely due to the decline in Health and Care visas – there were 13,000 Health and Care visas issued to main applicants in the latest year, down 91% from the peak in the YE December 2023

    visas granted to main applicants on other skilled ‘Worker’ routes (excluding Health and Care) also fell in the latest year, with 48,000 visas issued (down 36%) - largely driven by fewer applications for Skilled Worker visas

    the number of grants of permission to stay in the UK on work routes, including those who extend or switch visas, increased by 12% in the latest year to 782,000 - this reflects the high number of entry clearance grants issued in 2022 and 2023, many of which now require extensions of leave to remain
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
    "SHIT OUR ODDS ARE STILL TIGHTENING WE ARE FUCKING LOSING I TELL YOU"
    THE FUCKING ODDS HAVENT SHIFTED. SHOUT LOUDLY ON A PHONE IN A PUBLIC PLACE
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,762
    viewcode said:

    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.


    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
    Maybe I’m being completely bonkers, but I actually think this might well be reversed.

    Lab 1st
    Ref 2nd
    Grn 3rd
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422

    viewcode said:

    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.


    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
    Maybe I’m being completely bonkers, but I actually think this might well be reversed.

    Lab 1st
    Ref 2nd
    Grn 3rd
    I’d love that result, apart from losing my bet,
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,088
    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of a recount in Gorton & Denton? Quite high you'd think.

    It does feel like a recount might be needed, but the polling is all over the shop, so anything is possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,343

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    I was canvassed by Labour during the campaign for the Ealing Southall by-election. He was flummoxed when I announced that I was a party member (me still being part of my branch up north).
    I was canvassed by Lab in GE 2024.

    I told them my no 1 issue was social care and was told it would be a top priority for incoming Lab government and there was going to be a National Care system and a focus on improving pay and conditions and retention of staff etc etc.

    Absolute pack of lies.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,963

    viewcode said:

    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.


    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
    Maybe I’m being completely bonkers, but I actually think this might well be reversed.

    Lab 1st
    Ref 2nd
    Grn 3rd
    Interestingly, this is the first by-election I can remember in which second place seems surer than first. Lab and Green to come first and third depending on how they arrange the 60% of left wing votes between them - Reform on, everyone assumes, 30%. It has to be quite a remarkably even split of Lab and Grn to come through the middle.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,491

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of a recount in Gorton & Denton? Quite high you'd think.

    It does feel like a recount might be needed, but the polling is all over the shop, so anything is possible.
    Yup, anything is possible and whatever it is will be shit. The DNV (non-)party wins
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,377
    edited 5:18PM
    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,491
    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
    "SHIT OUR ODDS ARE STILL TIGHTENING WE ARE FUCKING LOSING I TELL YOU"
    THE FUCKING ODDS HAVENT SHIFTED. SHOUT LOUDLY ON A PHONE IN A PUBLIC PLACE
    HELLO IM IN THE TRAIN LIBRARY
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,717

    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself

    As usual.

    To be fair to Zia, he's got zero experience of electoral politics, even less than Hopeless Old Starmer, so why should he be any good at it?

    The key mystery here is that Home Office stuff is central to Reform's appeal. Yet Farage gave that brief to the party's weakest link.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297
    CORBYN TO BE YOUR PARTY LEADER (according to ZP - overheard by my source hiding in the luggage rack of coach c)
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 863

    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself

    As usual.

    To be fair to Zia, he's got zero experience of electoral politics, even less than Hopeless Old Starmer, so why should he be any good at it?

    The key mystery here is that Home Office stuff is central to Reform's appeal. Yet Farage gave that brief to the party's weakest link.
    Remind us how many seats hopeless old Starmer won in the 2024 GE
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,585
    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of a recount in Gorton & Denton? Quite high you'd think.

    It does feel like a recount might be needed, but the polling is all over the shop, so anything is possible.
    Yup, anything is possible and whatever it is will be shit. The DNV (non-)party wins
    Question for anyone who has worked at a counting centre. If there was a candidate called Cockandballs and someone drew a cock and balls on their ballot paper, would they be awarded the vote?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917

    CORBYN TO BE YOUR PARTY LEADER (according to ZP - overheard by my source hiding in the luggage rack of coach c)

    Leader in the Commons, there is some weird arse collective as party leader(s)
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,211

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
    "SHIT OUR ODDS ARE STILL TIGHTENING WE ARE FUCKING LOSING I TELL YOU"
    THE FUCKING ODDS HAVENT SHIFTED. SHOUT LOUDLY ON A PHONE IN A PUBLIC PLACE
    HELLO IM IN THE TRAIN LIBRARY
    Dom Joly is on tour at the moment... just saying... :smiley:
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x.com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,377
    geoffw said:

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas

    This is the assisted dying bill, some turkeys would like the option. da Costa is a long-term campaigner against assisted dying but rather than trying to win the debate, she is organising the talking out of the bill.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,714
    edited 5:34PM
    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself

    As usual.

    To be fair to Zia, he's got zero experience of electoral politics, even less than Hopeless Old Starmer, so why should he be any good at it?

    The key mystery here is that Home Office stuff is central to Reform's appeal. Yet Farage gave that brief to the party's weakest link.
    Remind us how many seats hopeless old Starmer won in the 2024 GE
    The fluke of our electoral system was a fig leaf. Fewer votes than Corbyn’s bad GE was the truth
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297
    Best price on

    GRN IN TO 1/2
    REF out y0 7/2
    LAB out to 11/2

    Must've been a see it say it sorted announcement that was mis heard as "WER'E FUCKING LOSING"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    Just realised we have opportunity to create infallible polls.

    We do a deal with Gett (taxi booking app that uses London Black Cabs) - answer some questions when you aren’t busy, get a lower Gett fee for the day.

    We cross reference with a commercially available database on ethnicity.

    We would have a polling group of *all* the Albanian Black Cab drivers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,804
    I wonder what time the count will finish. If it's tight there might be a couple (at least) of recounts. The first election I was involved in, the Returning Officer said if a recount was needed he'd seal up the boxes and we'd start again the next morning.
    And there's always the possibility of a Winchester 1997 re-run!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,717
    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 96
    edited 5:35PM

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of a recount in Gorton & Denton? Quite high you'd think.

    It does feel like a recount might be needed, but the polling is all over the shop, so anything is possible.
    Yup, anything is possible and whatever it is will be shit. The DNV (non-)party wins
    Question for anyone who has worked at a counting centre. If there was a candidate called Cockandballs and someone drew a cock and balls on their ballot paper, would they be awarded the vote?
    Probably not - under the rule disqualifying marks on a ballot paper which might identify the voter
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,775

    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself

    As usual.

    To be fair to Zia, he's got zero experience of electoral politics, even less than Hopeless Old Starmer, so why should he be any good at it?

    The key mystery here is that Home Office stuff is central to Reform's appeal. Yet Farage gave that brief to the party's weakest link.
    He thinks Yusuf is the party’s strongest link.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025
    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x.com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    Cicero said:

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    OH HANG ON THERE IS SOMEONE LISTENING I AM NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE DEFINTELY LOSING BIG TIME I REPEAT LOSING
    "SHIT OUR ODDS ARE STILL TIGHTENING WE ARE FUCKING LOSING I TELL YOU"
    THE FUCKING ODDS HAVENT SHIFTED. SHOUT LOUDLY ON A PHONE IN A PUBLIC PLACE
    HELLO IM IN THE TRAIN LIBRARY
    Dom Joly is on tour at the moment... just saying... :smiley:
    I’m sure there are lots of tickets available.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025
    isam said:

    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/i/status/2027063847119409486

    Reforms 'shadow home secretary' making a tit of himself

    As usual.

    To be fair to Zia, he's got zero experience of electoral politics, even less than Hopeless Old Starmer, so why should he be any good at it?

    The key mystery here is that Home Office stuff is central to Reform's appeal. Yet Farage gave that brief to the party's weakest link.
    Remind us how many seats hopeless old Starmer won in the 2024 GE
    The fluke of our electoral system was a fig leaf. Fewer votes than Corbyn’s bad GE was the truth
    How many voted Tory?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    I was canvassed by Labour during the campaign for the Ealing Southall by-election. He was flummoxed when I announced that I was a party member (me still being part of my branch up north).
    I was canvassed by Lab in GE 2024.

    I told them my no 1 issue was social care and was told it would be a top priority for incoming Lab government and there was going to be a National Care system and a focus on improving pay and conditions and retention of staff etc etc.

    Absolute pack of lies.

    You should have said your no 1 issue was Triffids.

    They would then have told you that eradication of mutant, aggressive, carnivorous plants was a major plank of policy.
    Great issue to get to the voters

    1) Greens - invasive species. Genetic engineering
    2) Nationalists - invented in the Soviet Union
    3) Scientists - used Lysenkoist methods in their creation
    4) Daily Mail readers - will reduce house prices. Immigrants.

    Etc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,343
    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045

    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?

    Or there are a lot of pissed off people saying - “I’m not voting Labour, Green or Reform. Not after they knocked on my door 23 times.”

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    edited 5:48PM

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people like this pirates Spaz all well and good 😉

    This has been a brilliant by election for triggering self righteous twats.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917

    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?

    1 to change the light bulb and 10 to talk loudly about it on the train
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,153

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    Only for the rich.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,045
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people all well and good 😉
    I think it goes back long before that.

    There’s a version for the “elections” held in the old Soviet Union. They had separate voting booths for yes and no…

    There’s probably a version for ancient Athenian elections.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,923

    Sweeney74 said:

    This market will overreact to anything because it’s thin, emotional, and populated by people who think one by-election is a national realignment. Green win might briefly push Greens above the Tories, but it’ll be a sugar-rush unless the result is Labour 3rd plus a chunky swing.

    The Greens upper limit is probably about 100-150 seats, even in the most optimistic scenarios, for the next general election. The impact of the Greens doing well is that it lowers the bar for most seats for the three parties in contention.

    A good Green performance might see ~200 MPs elected for the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP, etc, leaving 450 for Reform, Labour and the Tories. 200 seats could be enough for most seats, which would mean that it's easier to imagine a modest revival for the Tories seeing them win most seats.

    So, logically, a Green win in the by-election should see the chance for the Tories and Reform of winning most seats improve, and that for Labour fall.
    Not a hope in hell of them being within a country mile of that, not enough lentils and sandals on the planet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,260
    Andy_JS said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    All the parties tend to say this, as a way of getting out the vote and guarding against complacency.
    and those who worked for a classier newspaper than she does wouldn't report it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    I was canvassed by Labour during the campaign for the Ealing Southall by-election. He was flummoxed when I announced that I was a party member (me still being part of my branch up north).
    I was canvassed by Lab in GE 2024.

    I told them my no 1 issue was social care and was told it would be a top priority for incoming Lab government and there was going to be a National Care system and a focus on improving pay and conditions and retention of staff etc etc.

    Absolute pack of lies.

    You should have said your no 1 issue was Triffids.

    They would then have told you that eradication of mutant, aggressive, carnivorous plants was a major plank of policy.
    Great issue to get to the voters

    1) Greens - invasive species. Genetic engineering
    2) Nationalists - invented in the Soviet Union
    3) Scientists - used Lysenkoist methods in their creation
    4) Daily Mail readers - will reduce house prices. Immigrants.

    Etc
    1) Greens - "we will give ALL Trifid invaders, irrespective of their dietary preferences, an amnesty and give them free greenhouses and fertiliser!
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people all well and good 😉
    I think it goes back long before that.

    There’s a version for the “elections” held in the old Soviet Union. They had separate voting booths for yes and no…

    There’s probably a version for ancient Athenian elections.
    Oh, does it, you must be right. I do remember it from the Brexit vote though and it makes me chuckle when I see it,
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,153
    Taz said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    We were canvassed by Percy Grieve in 1979. However in all the time I’ve been moved out I’ve never been canvassed once. Even when I saw Luke Akehurst was on the estate canvassing (on Facebook) last,election no one came here.

    My sister had Jess Phillips knock her door last election. She told her she was about to go to work and was too busy. Didn’t go down too well with Ms Phillips.

    Did she think your sister should be staying at home looking after the kids and getting her man's dinner on the table upon his return?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,320

    Quarterly migration stats are out! https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2025/summary-of-latest-statistics

    in the YE December 2025 there were 9,900 enforced returns, an increase of 21% compared with the previous year, continuing an increase seen since 2020

    in the YE December 2025 there were 28,000 voluntary returns, an increase of 5% compared with the previous year, mainly driven by an increase in asylum-related returns and assisted returns

    there were 5,600 FNO [foreign national offender] returns in the YE December 2025, an increase of 11% compared to the previous year

    Interestingly, in the USA there is now net emmigration of US citizens, for the first time since the 1930's.

    https://www.wsj.com/us-news/americans-leaving-the-us-migration-a5795bfa?st=9EzjFX&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    I wonder why that is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people all well and good 😉
    I think it goes back long before that.

    There’s a version for the “elections” held in the old Soviet Union. They had separate voting booths for yes and no…

    There’s probably a version for ancient Athenian elections.
    Oh, does it, you must be right. I do remember it from the Brexit vote though and it makes me chuckle when I see it,
    sd
    image
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422

    Taz said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    We were canvassed by Percy Grieve in 1979. However in all the time I’ve been moved out I’ve never been canvassed once. Even when I saw Luke Akehurst was on the estate canvassing (on Facebook) last,election no one came here.

    My sister had Jess Phillips knock her door last election. She told her she was about to go to work and was too busy. Didn’t go down too well with Ms Phillips.

    Did she think your sister should be staying at home looking after the kids and getting her man's dinner on the table upon his return?
    Ha 😀😀😀😀. He left a while back to live in a caravan on a field in rural Warwickshire.

    No, she just wanted to dispense her wisdom so my sister and niece would vote for her.

    It didn’t work and neither bothered voting. My other niece is in Droitwich, she didn’t vote either.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,041
    edited 6:02PM
    viewcode said:

    Betfair Exchange 5pm 26Feb2026. Values to back: lay are slightly different, obvs.


    • Green 1.47
    • Reform 5.2
    • Labour 7.0
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253205834
    That's fairly static, Reform easing out perhaps. I still think it will be comfortable enough for Green to not need any recount. That said, it looks to me like almost every by-election in this parliament is going to be competitive and the spectre of the recount will loom each time we come here.

    And if the polling is still very multi-way at the next GE, we could see a bucket load of recounts then.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,603

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    Only for the rich.
    A guest house in St Helier would be far cheaper than your last night on Earth at the Hotel Zurich, although at Hotel Zurich one does get a celebratory last night Lindt square on one's pillow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,600
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    All the parties tend to say this, as a way of getting out the vote and guarding against complacency.
    and those who worked for a classier newspaper than she does wouldn't report it
    She should get a job at Sky News with insight like that
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,603

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people all well and good 😉
    I think it goes back long before that.

    There’s a version for the “elections” held in the old Soviet Union. They had separate voting booths for yes and no…

    There’s probably a version for ancient Athenian elections.
    Oh, does it, you must be right. I do remember it from the Brexit vote though and it makes me chuckle when I see it,
    sd
    image
    I wonder if mum got to behold the success that is Brexit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,260
    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x.com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    If thats a photo of him she must have been at least 70 when she had him!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,025

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    Only for the rich.
    A guest house in St Helier would be far cheaper than your last night on Earth at the Hotel Zurich, although at Hotel Zurich one does get a celebratory last night Lindt square on one's pillow.
    Not death by Snu-Snu?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,377

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    6 or 7 https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/six-lords-a-speaking-the-peers-whose-long-debates-could-kill-the-assisted-dying-bill
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,297
    Foxy said:

    National Toast day according to Countdown.

    It's always Jam tommorow though.
    Apart from when its marmalade.
  • novanova Posts: 939

    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?

    About 40,000 households. So, if it was 1000, you're looking at 40 each. But on election day if you've got enough people you're also going likely doing the same street multiple times a day to pick up people at work etc.

    You're starting from central points, so when you head out in a group, you've got to travel both ways, and will just have a few streets to visit - so you may end up travelling/waiting for as long as you're knocking on doors. From past election days, I've done 30000+ steps, but actually spoken to surprisingly few people (as in maybe 100, rather than 1000 that you'd think would be possible in a day).

    On the flip side, on election day you're supposed to only be knocking on the doors of people who said they'd vote for you. You don't want to be reminding anyone else that there's an election on :)
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    Roger said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x.com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    If thats a photo of him she must have been at least 70 when she had him!
    That’s the gag, I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,775
    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2027077805058506866

    The Green Party has reported Labour to the police over alleged electoral law breaches after a van allegedly near a polling station claimed the Greens want "our daughters used for legal prostitution"
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,041
    edited 6:15PM
    Ian on X, who looks Labour adjacent, suggests an expected 3-4am ETA for (first) count completion, apparently per the returning officer.

    https://x.com/i/status/2027082120321970626
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,136

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Never gets tired this

    ‘ Just took 93yr mum to vote, she's registered blind. In a very loud voice she said, "Which box for Reform?" A cheer went up from waiting voters’

    https://x. com/jamesbennettuk/status/2027050838389072023?s=61

    "Reformer Pirates
    @PiratesReformer
    ·
    28m
    jesus wept mate, this was done as a satire hours ago and here you are like a dog licking some old piss off a turd actually posting the thing.
    Actually it’s a joke that goes back to the Brexit vote.

    Still if it triggers people all well and good 😉
    I think it goes back long before that.

    There’s a version for the “elections” held in the old Soviet Union. They had separate voting booths for yes and no…

    There’s probably a version for ancient Athenian elections.
    Oh, does it, you must be right. I do remember it from the Brexit vote though and it makes me chuckle when I see it,
    sd
    image
    Being serious for a second I wonder if most 93 year old blind mums did in fact vote Leave? Probably they did.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,282

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EU’s anti-fraud agency set to investigate Peter Mandelson
    Probe into former commissioner for trade is expected to be wide-ranging
    https://www.ft.com/content/85b94fbb-c082-4b9d-b153-39ded2e8b4ca

    When you catch someone for a crime, it is very unusual that it is their first and only time.

    There have been a fair number in the past.

    Is this different from Farage's 40k or so Euro of MEP expenses?
    40K, you say…

    I recall, that after the U.K. parliamentary expenses scandal, the European Parliament took immediate action. And made it illegal to leak *their* expenses.
    I can't recall, but MEPs certainly don't do transparency well.

    And there have also been plenty of Commissioners who have been held to account.

    The only Youtube copyright strike I have ever had was a report of MEPs turning up on Friday morning with the luggage to swipe in for the Expenses then immediately head off to the airport to go home for the weekend. I did it as a commentary on the news so I was perfectly entitled to use the segment of footage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,450

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    Certainly there are intractable opponents who have sought to kill it through process. That will be frustrating for proponents but, as you note, within the rules. But that kind of action provokes a reaction, and so would really only be a delay.

    If support for the principle is there - and I believe it is even in the Lords - then it would just be a temporary setback, and proponents can keep on trying, dealing with legitimate issues raised and ultimately patience for those implacably opposed holding things up will run out amongst most peers.

    So whilst it would be very annoying for proponents to be delayed, and they would have liked it to become law as soon as possible, a bit of a delay is not the end of the world, and they didn't need to act as though it was and that any opposition was illegitimte, as some have from the start.

    I'm opposed to the bill on principle but believe it will get through now or later, since clearly MPs by majority support the overall intent, and whilst the Lords can perfectly legitimately hold things up as part of the process (particularly for a private bill), that is not going to kill the desire of MPs to have this go through at some point. So anyone celebrating or bemoaning the 'end' caused by Lords tactics is overreacting I think.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,784

    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?

    As a canvasser you'd probably knock on about 100 doors in a 2 hour session, and half would be out.
    To call on 30,000 doors in this by election would require 3,000 canvassers.
    But the 1000-2000 canvassers being quoted will be from the three leading parties so there will be duplication. Some doors will be getting three calls.

    Over the last forty years I've probably knocked on 20,000 doors all over the South. I was door knocking in Hampstead last weekend. Over half were out.
    I've asked about 10,000 people how they intend to vote.
    These days I first ask who they will definitely NOT vote for. That gives me a big clue.
    Then I narrow it down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,363
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Foxy said:
    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
    10pm!
    If someone came knocking up at my door after 9pm, they would not exactly be popular.
    I once had a canvasser knock my door at 7am

    Poor kid probably learnt a few swear words he didn't know.
    I've lived in the same house for 20 years, and I've never had a canvasser knock.
    As someone long active in local politics back when I was in London, I never got canvassed, until one day this pleasant Labour lady knocked on my door, seeking my vote in the forthcoming council election (in which I was a candidate), and thence I had a most enjoyable back and forth with her, during which it was becoming increasingly obvious to her that I knew something that she did not. Eventually I suggested she look to see what information the canvass card she was carrying conveyed about me, at which point she looked down, and - clearly - it spelled out that I was the sitting LibDem councillor and restanding candidate. Whereupon she beat a smiling but very rapid retreat.

    Lesson to all canvassers - do look at the canvass card (for more than just the voter’s surname) before ringing the bell….
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,775
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/26/trump-elections-executive-order-activists/

    Trump has previewed a "17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,282
    Barnesian said:

    The numbers of canvassers the parties are claiming are out knocking on doors today are imho utter bollocks.

    Figures like 1,000, even 2,000 people knocking on doors are being quoted.

    There are 74,000 voters in the by-election area according to wiki.

    At the UK average of 2.3 per household my maths says each canvasser, if say 2,000 out on the streets, will only need to knock on 16 doors.

    How long is that going to take? Even if every single one is answered (never happens) and there is two mins of chat that is only half an hour.

    It is all crap.

    Or maybe I am being stupid?

    As a canvasser you'd probably knock on about 100 doors in a 2 hour session, and half would be out.
    To call on 30,000 doors in this by election would require 3,000 canvassers.
    But the 1000-2000 canvassers being quoted will be from the three leading parties so there will be duplication. Some doors will be getting three calls.

    Over the last forty years I've probably knocked on 20,000 doors all over the South. I was door knocking in Hampstead last weekend. Over half were out.
    I've asked about 10,000 people how they intend to vote.
    These days I first ask who they will definitely NOT vote for. That gives me a big clue.
    Then I narrow it down.
    If you are a Lib Dem you go back 6 times if the time is available to make sure you get them all.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,289

    Dopermean said:

    Evan Davies interviewing Nikki da Costa, who's started shouting. She has admitted that they have no intention of allowing it to go to a vote in the Lords.
    1000 amendments debated on 3 clauses, they want to force it to be a party political issue when, for the best reasons, it has been brought forward as a matter of conscience.
    The HoL needs to be euthanised.

    Isn't the issue a fairly small number of Lords putting down a wreckingly large number of amendments?

    Which, whist it's within the rules, also feels Not Entirely On.

    Though with today's vote in Jersey, presumably one-way tickets to the Channel Islands may become a thing.
    Only for the rich.
    A guest house in St Helier would be far cheaper than your last night on Earth at the Hotel Zurich, although at Hotel Zurich one does get a celebratory last night Lindt square on one's pillow.
    In St Helier would you get a small Jersey Potato?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,167
    Evening all :)

    I'm not sure some on here are going to make it to the declaration tomorrow morning.

    A full polling day operation in a constituency will involve phone calls and social media monitoring as well as the troops on the ground delivering, telling and knocking up. Leafletting would also happen at railway stations and bus stations with a full constituency leaflet morning and evening and targetted leaflets during the day to those who had not yet voted.

    That's labour intensive and most won't work solidly from 7am to 10pm so basically two shifts - I reckon 500-750 would cover it

    The electorate is about 75,000 so a 40% turnout equals 30,000 votes so that's 9,000 each for Labour, Greens and Reform and 3,000 for everyone else?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,450
    edited 6:27PM

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/26/trump-elections-executive-order-activists/

    Trump has previewed a "17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting"

    I thought they'd had cast iron proof it was Venezuela this whole time? I'm so confused.

    Still, after the thrill of proving their independence over tariffs let's see if Roberts and the terrible twosome feel inclined to slow roll the challenges to that assumption of executive power.

    Edit: It's also kind of insane to me that Roberts has been Chief Justice for 20 years and is only 71 - lifetime appointments in this day and age makes presidential appointments to the Court way way more powerful than it used to be.
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