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What will this betting market look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,971
edited 1:46PM in General
What will this betting market look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

If the Greens do win the Gorton & Denton by-election then I expect there might be an (over)reaction in the betting markets and we could be in the position where the Greens are seen as having a better chance of winning the most seats at the next general election than the Tories.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,528
    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,431
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    Are you meeting her at the count?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,528
    Northern_Al said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    Are you meeting her at the count?
    Alas no.

    I do expect the ballot boxes to be emptied at 10pm. I said ballot boxes.

    A famous date night for me was the day that Nicola Sturgeon was arrested.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    Prejudging how well date night is likely to go.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    This market will overreact to anything because it’s thin, emotional, and populated by people who think one by-election is a national realignment. Green win might briefly push Greens above the Tories, but it’ll be a sugar-rush unless the result is Labour 3rd plus a chunky swing.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,528
    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    This by-election has led to some changes to the normal timetable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,774
    wooliedyed said:

    Boomers vs Silent Generation.
    Silent Generation are now the over 80s (all pre end WW2 births) with a handful of the Greatest Generation left (born before 1927)
    Boomers run to about 1964 births folliwed by the perma awesome Gen X then a load of snot nosed brats

    In modern youth-speak, boomer has become a synonym for anyone over about 35.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    This by-election has led to some changes to the normal timetable.
    thoughts and prayers
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,577
    Fascinating thread on another "by-election of the century" - Warrington, 1981.

    https://x.com/labour_history/status/2026967125701595230

    "The following morning, a jubilant David Owen declared it "easily the most important development in British politics this century." The bookmakers made the SDP/Alliance 11/10 favourites to win the next election. The Times wrote that Labour "is not bound to go on forever."

    Sound familiar?

    NB: The Labour candidate, Doug Hoyle, is the father of Sir Lindsey,
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Feb 26, 2026 18:09 (IST)

    "I Owe India": Benjamin Netanyahu, His Wife And Their 'First Date' At Indian Restaurant

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he owes India "a great personal debt" because he met his wife Sara in an Indian restaurant in Israel's Tel Aviv. He said the "food was unbelievable".

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pm-modi-israel-visit-live-updates-knesset-parliament-address-benjamin-netanyahu-india-israel-biltaeral-defence-security-talks-tel-aviv-11134478
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Q: What did the Buddhist ask the hot dog vendor?

    A: “Make me one with everything.”

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,312
    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Depends on where in the world the date is surely?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    Sweeney74 said:

    This market will overreact to anything because it’s thin, emotional, and populated by people who think one by-election is a national realignment. Green win might briefly push Greens above the Tories, but it’ll be a sugar-rush unless the result is Labour 3rd plus a chunky swing.

    The Greens upper limit is probably about 100-150 seats, even in the most optimistic scenarios, for the next general election. The impact of the Greens doing well is that it lowers the bar for most seats for the three parties in contention.

    A good Green performance might see ~200 MPs elected for the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP, etc, leaving 450 for Reform, Labour and the Tories. 200 seats could be enough for most seats, which would mean that it's easier to imagine a modest revival for the Tories seeing them win most seats.

    So, logically, a Green win in the by-election should see the chance for the Tories and Reform of winning most seats improve, and that for Labour fall.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    Foxy said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Depends on where in the world the date is surely?
    Date? Had you down as more of a Sultana man.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,774
    Good news. Humanity has a future even if AI replaces all the jobs:

    https://x.com/brahma_4u/status/2026927250176881090
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    Foxy said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Depends on where in the world the date is surely?
    no, 9pm local time is 9pm wherever you are... unless we're all using 21:00 UTC
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    williamglenn said:

    Good news. Humanity has a future even if AI replaces all the jobs:

    https://x.com/brahma_4u/status/2026927250176881090

    Taking the red pill was supposed to free a person of the Matrix, not enslave them to it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,288
    On Topic.

    Much as I would like to see the Greens as largest Party the chances of that are virtually Zero.

    I wouldnt be tempted at less than 200/1

    Best chance would be for Reform to remain at about 20% along with Lab/Cons in high teens and LDs in mid teens.

    Under that Scenario Greens most votes might be a remote possibility say a 12/1 shot but most seats would be a lot higher bar (impossible in one cycle imo)
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    edited 2:04PM
    dixiedean said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Q: What did the Buddhist ask the hot dog vendor?

    A: “Make me one with everything.”

    Hot dog costs £5. Buddhist hands over a tenner. Vendor pockets it.
    Buddhist: “Where’s my change?”
    Vendor: “Change comes from within.”
    I bought a Buddhist vacuum cleaner.
    Within six weeks it had lost all its attachments.
    bravo

    Attachment is suffering.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,476
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    This by-election has led to some changes to the normal timetable.
    You have a very understanding date.
    "I'm looking forward to tonight but we'll need to be done by nine so I can gamble on a by-election and gossip with some internet politics nerds."
    Love it when you talk dirty.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050
    AI will save us all! Or maybe not...

    Meta Director of AI Safety Allows AI Agent to Accidentally Delete Her Inbox

    https://www.404media.co/meta-director-of-ai-safety-allows-ai-agent-to-accidentally-delete-her-inbox/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,390
    Sweeney74 said:

    This market will overreact to anything because it’s thin, emotional, and populated by people who think one by-election is a national realignment. Green win might briefly push Greens above the Tories, but it’ll be a sugar-rush unless the result is Labour 3rd plus a chunky swing.

    This is a politics messageboard not a market :smile:
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    carnforth said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    This market will overreact to anything because it’s thin, emotional, and populated by people who think one by-election is a national realignment. Green win might briefly push Greens above the Tories, but it’ll be a sugar-rush unless the result is Labour 3rd plus a chunky swing.

    This is a politics messageboard not a market :smile:
    a market for ideas...?

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    bondegezou said:

    AI will save us all! Or maybe not...

    Meta Director of AI Safety Allows AI Agent to Accidentally Delete Her Inbox

    https://www.404media.co/meta-director-of-ai-safety-allows-ai-agent-to-accidentally-delete-her-inbox/

    Bearing in mind the tyranny of email in the modern workplace, it was probably doing her a favour.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,963
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Q: What did the Buddhist ask the hot dog vendor?

    A: “Make me one with everything.”

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
    A voodoo Pole?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,603
    Foxy said:

    To while away the time until the obvious but unexpected triumph of the Communist League in G and D PBers might want to enjoy this Allister Heath headline generator:

    https://bsky.app/profile/martinnicholls.bsky.social/post/3mfqzffu3jq22



    Allister Heath is the patron saint of "unhinged headlines"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Q: What did the Buddhist ask the hot dog vendor?

    A: “Make me one with everything.”

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
    A voodoo Pole?
    Is the right answer!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 983
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Q: What did the Buddhist ask the hot dog vendor?

    A: “Make me one with everything.”

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
    Yes, you've mentioned it quite a few times on PB.....

    Maybe time for some new material Sunil?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,963
    Burgessian said:

    Fascinating thread on another "by-election of the century" - Warrington, 1981.

    https://x.com/labour_history/status/2026967125701595230

    "The following morning, a jubilant David Owen declared it "easily the most important development in British politics this century." The bookmakers made the SDP/Alliance 11/10 favourites to win the next election. The Times wrote that Labour "is not bound to go on forever."

    Sound familiar?

    NB: The Labour candidate, Doug Hoyle, is the father of Sir Lindsey,

    "The MP, Doug Hoyle, is making the demands after human remains were dumped on a tip at Rixton in Cheshire"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3cs928-_S4&list=RDF3cs928-_S4&start_radio=1
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,779
    Foxy said:

    To while away the time until the obvious but unexpected triumph of the Communist League in G and D PBers might want to enjoy this Allister Heath headline generator:

    https://bsky.app/profile/martinnicholls.bsky.social/post/3mfqzffu3jq22



    https://stirring-fox-7e1fab.netlify.app/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,774
    World Economic Forum CEO steps down over links to Jeffrey Epstein

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/world-economic-forum-chief-brende-steps-down-amid-epstein-links
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    edited 2:25PM
    williamglenn said:

    World Economic Forum CEO steps down over links to Jeffrey Epstein

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/world-economic-forum-chief-brende-steps-down-amid-epstein-links

    Hot on the heels of Larry Summers quitting Harvard.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,312
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    World Economic Forum CEO steps down over links to Jeffrey Epstein

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/world-economic-forum-chief-brende-steps-down-amid-epstein-links

    Hot on the heels of Larry Summers quitting Harvard.
    The dominoes are beginning to fall.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,658
    Foxy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    World Economic Forum CEO steps down over links to Jeffrey Epstein

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/world-economic-forum-chief-brende-steps-down-amid-epstein-links

    Hot on the heels of Larry Summers quitting Harvard.
    The dominoes are beginning to fall.
    Dominoes, or firewalls ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,050
    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Well, the interesting bits do...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,658
    Sam Altman, or Burke from Aliens ?
    https://x.com/TheGregYang/status/2026817767098482918
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,023
    edited 2:33PM
    Nigelb said:

    Sam Altman, or Burke from Aliens ?
    https://x.com/TheGregYang/status/2026817767098482918

    "It was a bad call, Ripley, a bad call!"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,259
    Foxy said:

    To while away the time until the obvious but unexpected triumph of the Communist League in G and D PBers might want to enjoy this Allister Heath headline generator:

    https://bsky.app/profile/martinnicholls.bsky.social/post/3mfqzffu3jq22



    .....and the winner is;

    The chilling rise
    of Notts County
    Proves that the
    Culture war is
    Already lost

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,394
    bondegezou said:

    AI will save us all! Or maybe not...

    Meta Director of AI Safety Allows AI Agent to Accidentally Delete Her Inbox

    https://www.404media.co/meta-director-of-ai-safety-allows-ai-agent-to-accidentally-delete-her-inbox/

    A couple of years ago I accidentally deleted all my emails from between 2018 and 2022 when I was attempting to clear out the spam messages which was about 90% of them. But it was annoying to lose the ones from real people that I wanted to keep.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,956
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.

    So, rich people can avoid pain by going to Switzerland.

    The rest of you? Suck it up.
    Come back with a better bill with adequate safeguards then fine.
    What safeguards do you want that aren't in the bill already?
    The Bill is done and a new one will come so it’s largely irrelevant however more on preventing coercion and certainly to prevent the sort of mission creep we’ve seen in places like Canada.

    Money grubbing relatives dispatching granny for her cash needs to be stopped full stop.

    There are other things too however the bill looks doomed so it starts afresh sometime in the future.
    I think if we say no-one should be assisted to death in any circumstances, no matter how awful the pain, that's a principled opposition we can agree or disagree with, but should respect.

    If we say, safeguards are inadequate but when challenged to state what safeguards would make assisted dying acceptable but are missing from the bill, and then resort to waffle, that's unprincipled opposition and should be called out as such.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,259
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    She turns into a frog?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    Battlebus said:

    Doublecarpet has turned up. Is there an election?

    The Guardian are expecting the result to be declared at around 4am on Friday morning, which feels like it is pessimistic for a by-election, but perhaps it factors in the recounts due to a close three-way split.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    She turns into a frog?
    Or TSE does.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,603
    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,708
    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    She turns into a frog?
    Or TSE does.
    Surely that’s against the treaty of Troyes?
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    StillWaters said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    She turns into a frog?
    Or TSE does.
    Surely that’s against the treaty of Troyes?
    A mate of mine got married in Troyes.

    The sparkling wine was amazing. Really nice. Lots of it.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,564
    AnneJGP said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    carnforth said:

    turbotubbs said:

    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.

    Excellent news.
    I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.

    The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
    I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
    IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
    It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact. :(
    A generation dying off from natural causes isn't unusual even if the size of the cohort is unusual. What is unusual is the rate at which we've been killing babies for decades, the present strong desire for severe bodily mutilation as the only possible route to happiness for some, and the equally strong desire to encourage suicide for people whose difficulties are quite likely to be temporary. Plus, of course, the associated view that other people's lives can't be worth living so they're best dead.
    Temporary?

    Only if you define "suffering until you eventually die naturally putting you out of your misery" as "temporary".

    If assisted dying is legalised then nobody will be determining that other's lives can't be worth living so they're best dead.

    Instead we'll be able to decide, as we should, that our own lives are not worth living so we're best off dead. Which we absolutely should be able to do.

    The only thing wrong with this proposed bill is it does not go remotely far enough. The asinine 6 month rule means people with years of suffering ahead of them need to suffer on. And the lack of a living will proviso means that people with dementia need to suffer through until they die of natural causes.

    Just like signing DNRs, we should be able to write living wills to state if we get severe dementia and are incapacitated and unable to decide at that point, whether we'd rather live or die in that state. And our living wills should be respected as our own choice, made freely, while we were able to do so.
    Yes. My reference is to collateral damage that has been observed in countries already practicing this.
    What collateral damage? I have never seen a single example of any.

    If someone wants to end their own life, and does, that's not collateral damage. That's liberal.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,278
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    To while away the time until the obvious but unexpected triumph of the Communist League in G and D PBers might want to enjoy this Allister Heath headline generator:

    https://bsky.app/profile/martinnicholls.bsky.social/post/3mfqzffu3jq22



    .....and the winner is;

    The chilling rise
    of Notts County
    Proves that the
    Culture war is
    Already lost

    The Pineapple on pizza plot is the most successful Marxist infiltration in history
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,259
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    date nights usually start after 9, no?
    Feb 26, 2026 18:09 (IST)

    "I Owe India": Benjamin Netanyahu, His Wife And Their 'First Date' At Indian Restaurant

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he owes India "a great personal debt" because he met his wife Sara in an Indian restaurant in Israel's Tel Aviv. He said the "food was unbelievable".

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pm-modi-israel-visit-live-updates-knesset-parliament-address-benjamin-netanyahu-india-israel-biltaeral-defence-security-talks-tel-aviv-11134478
    ........L'Shanah Haba'ah B'Yerushalayim ........and may next passover be spent iin the Hague (loose translation)
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,774
    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Lol. Thats such utter bilge from Ferguson
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Sauce more like... Hic.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    wooliedyed said:

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    "NO, IT'S SHIT"
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,422
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    What, the dancing imbecile will lose ?

    Say it ain’t so.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,564
    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Its reported to be . . .









    . . . brisk.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,440
    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,394
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    All the parties tend to say this, as a way of getting out the vote and guarding against complacency.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    Sweeney74 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Sauce more like... Hic.
    That might be the most embarassing tweet ive ever seen from a 'journalist'
    Its comically bad
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,630
    Sweeney74 said:

    wooliedyed said:

    'IM ON THE TRAIN! YEAH, WE ARE LOSING!'

    "NO, IT'S SHIT"
    CIAO!
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    wooliedyed said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Sauce more like... Hic.
    That might be the most embarassing tweet ive ever seen from a 'journalist'
    Its comically bad
    Political Editor no less...
    Yeah, it's The Sun, but still.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    The question that arises is whether Polanski was travelling towards Manchester, or away from it, when he said this.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,846
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk.
    Whatever happened to Steady?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    Im going to stick my neck out and say Greens by over 5%, possibly well over

    I am ready for tomorrows ordure
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 148
    Flatlander said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk.
    Whatever happened to Steady?
    See TSE's date night...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    Flatlander said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk.
    Whatever happened to Steady?
    On holiday with sluggish
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,779
    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Lol. Thats such utter bilge from Ferguson
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! YES IT'S DEPRESSING. I'M IN FRONT OF SOME NASTY DRUNKS AND BEHIND A HEN NIGHT! BUT THERE'S SOME BLOKE ON THE INTERNET FROM THE SPECCIE BANGING ON ABOUT HIS JOLLY TO A POSH HOTEL! THIS DOES NOT IMPROVE MY MOOD!"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,779
    Taz said:

    StillWaters said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am busy until 9ish.

    (Date night.)

    She turns into a frog?
    Or TSE does.
    Surely that’s against the treaty of Troyes?
    A mate of mine got married in Troyes.

    The sparkling wine was amazing. Really nice. Lots of it.
    That is possibly the most informative post today. :)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,581
    viewcode said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Lol. Thats such utter bilge from Ferguson
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! YES IT'S DEPRESSING. I'M IN FRONT OF SOME NASTY DRUNKS AND BEHIND A HEN NIGHT! BUT THERE'S SOME BLOKE ON THE INTERNET FROM THE SPECCIE BANGING ON ABOUT HIS JOLLY TO A POSH HOTEL! THIS DOES NOT IMPROVE MY MOOD!"
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! WHY CAN'T YOU MESSAGE ME LIKE A NORMAL PERSON? WHAT DO YOU MEAN YOU DON'T WANT TO PUT ANYTHING IN WRITING?!? HALF THE CARRIAGE CAN HEAR YOUR EVERY WORD!"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,284
    Green 1.54
    Reform 4.6
    Labour 7.2

    Back to where we started the day.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,606
    Mexicanpete said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,284
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
    One Black one, one White one, and one with a bit of...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,284
    National Toast day according to Countdown.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,582
    LostPassword said:

    viewcode said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Lol. Thats such utter bilge from Ferguson
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! YES IT'S DEPRESSING. I'M IN FRONT OF SOME NASTY DRUNKS AND BEHIND A HEN NIGHT! BUT THERE'S SOME BLOKE ON THE INTERNET FROM THE SPECCIE BANGING ON ABOUT HIS JOLLY TO A POSH HOTEL! THIS DOES NOT IMPROVE MY MOOD!"
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! WHY CAN'T YOU MESSAGE ME LIKE A NORMAL PERSON? WHAT DO YOU MEAN YOU DON'T WANT TO PUT ANYTHING IN WRITING?!? HALF THE CARRIAGE CAN HEAR YOUR EVERY WORD!"
    “I AM ON A TRAIN! THE OTHER PASSENGERS DON’T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT YOUR THREESOME WITH JEFFREY AND VIRGINIA, PETER.”
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,582
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    National Toast day according to Countdown.

    Cheers!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,259
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
    Here's one. All Israelis.....and all too typical

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CJmusA69ME
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,658
    Presumably because Trump thinks his offspring should be getting the money.

    - Trump confronted Lutnick at Mar-a-Lago over the holidays over how much money Lutnick’s sons were making
    - Cabinet members and senior WH officials wary of his brash and controlling style. “No one’s allowed to talk to the interagency without Howard giving explicit approval.”
    - He’s developed reputation for jumping into deals w/ little expertise and not enforcing follow thru with companies and countries on the $18 trillion in pledged investments
    - One example: The Department of Energy had spent months negotiating a nuclear reactor deal with Westinghouse when Lutnick arrived and began negotiating directly with Westinghouse instead, catching Energy Secretary Chris Wright by surprise.
    - https://x.com/SophiaCai99/status/2027017222267281662
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,043
    Roger said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Second suspect arrested for the potential attack on the Manchester Mosque. Has Farage demanded the police release the ethnic identity of the suspects as a matter of urgency yet?

    I’m hearing one white, one black. Might be bullshit
    Here's one. All Israelis.....and all too typical

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CJmusA69ME
    Have you considered joining Restore?


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,043
    Fairliered said:

    LostPassword said:

    viewcode said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Lol. Thats such utter bilge from Ferguson
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! YES IT'S DEPRESSING. I'M IN FRONT OF SOME NASTY DRUNKS AND BEHIND A HEN NIGHT! BUT THERE'S SOME BLOKE ON THE INTERNET FROM THE SPECCIE BANGING ON ABOUT HIS JOLLY TO A POSH HOTEL! THIS DOES NOT IMPROVE MY MOOD!"
    "I AM ON A TRAIN! WHY CAN'T YOU MESSAGE ME LIKE A NORMAL PERSON? WHAT DO YOU MEAN YOU DON'T WANT TO PUT ANYTHING IN WRITING?!? HALF THE CARRIAGE CAN HEAR YOUR EVERY WORD!"
    “I AM ON A TRAIN! THE OTHER PASSENGERS DON’T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT YOUR THREESOME WITH JEFFREY AND VIRGINIA, PETER.”
    One, that I actually witnessed, was at the time of the Raul Moat thing.

    I was on the District line travelling westbound towards Westminster. A couple of seats up a lady was shouting into her phone. Among other things,

    “Tell the minister the gun was illegal, so we can’t use this for the anti-gun agenda”.

    But the time she rang off, half the carriage was staring at her. Really broke the “everyone ignores you” rule on the Tube.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 862
    LostPassword said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    The question that arises is whether Polanski was travelling towards Manchester, or away from it, when he said this.
    He's not Farage I'll give him that. He won't run, he wunt hide, he's not a gutless coward.

    If the Greens win fair enough.

    Will it be any more than a by election protest vote

    I think not.

    We've been here a few times with the Greens after EU elections.

    Broke the mould
    The second coming
    Will be in Government in a decade

    They will stand up to scrutiny far less in the coming months than they did then.

    Centre left will be Labour LD
    Right will be Reform and Tory

    Nationalists will be strong.

    The big question is this will the Tories ever again be a centre right Party, because right now they are shadowing Reform.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,312
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    National Toast day according to Countdown.

    It's always Jam tommorow though.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 862
    Sweeney74 said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2027022450920198271

    EXCL:

    Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.

    Sauce more like... Hic.
    That might be the most embarassing tweet ive ever seen from a 'journalist'
    Its comically bad
    Political Editor no less...
    Yeah, it's The Sun, but still.
    To call Kate Fergus on a Journalist is like saying there is atmosphere at Villa Park.

    You'll die laughing
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,043
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    National Toast day according to Countdown.

    Mandatory reference - https://youtu.be/Z8yW5cyXXRc?si=4VbFCniBwwDg0HvN
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 862
    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    I'm waiting for the Kemi spat with Martin Lewis has doubled the vote to 6%
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,065
    Sweeney74 said:

    At the halfway point of the voting day, is there any news or indication of turnout?

    Brisk
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,312
    Looks like the tantric sex has to wait...

    https://bsky.app/profile/elliechowns.bsky.social/post/3mfrl3vbnm22s
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,804
    edited 4:12PM
    Foxy said:

    Looks like the tantric sex has to wait...

    https://bsky.app/profile/elliechowns.bsky.social/post/3mfrl3vbnm22s

    If I was the agent I'd be having a fit at them all sitting down having coffee. "Get our on the streets; time for coffee or whatever after 9pm!"
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,917
    Ferguson now says this was not on the phone, he was 'chatting with aides'
    Lmao
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,566
    EU’s anti-fraud agency set to investigate Peter Mandelson
    Probe into former commissioner for trade is expected to be wide-ranging
    https://www.ft.com/content/85b94fbb-c082-4b9d-b153-39ded2e8b4ca
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,043
    Scott_xP said:

    EU’s anti-fraud agency set to investigate Peter Mandelson
    Probe into former commissioner for trade is expected to be wide-ranging
    https://www.ft.com/content/85b94fbb-c082-4b9d-b153-39ded2e8b4ca

    When you catch someone for a crime, it is very unusual that it is their first and only time.

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