Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
People have been claiming Reform have been rumbled for a long time now. Like people calling a stock market crash they will be right eventually.
Hopefully i can be right on a one shot call on Reform If voters stick with them beyond the tail end of this year then ill admit i know fuck all about Reforms prospects
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
Window cleaning firm comes round looking to quote for business. Chats with Mrs RP. Inside 2 minutes he's extolling his views about immigrants. Hang on, says Mrs RP, my dad was an immigrant. No, not ones like you, the dirty ones on the boats, we have to stop all that".
Gets sent away. Oh, they're doing VAT fraud as well.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
People have been claiming Reform have been rumbled for a long time now. Like people calling a stock market crash they will be right eventually.
Hopefully i can be right on a one shot call on Reform If voters stick with them beyond the tail end of this year then ill admit i know fuck all about Reforms prospects
Quite frankly none of us do, about any party, there’s a long way to go it can only be educated guesses or wishcasting.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Forcing builders to make a proportion of their construction “affordable homes” looks like a really stupid idea to me
They should be allowed to build whatever the hell they want, within a sensible planning framework. They are businesses which need to make money if they’re going to build the number of homes we need
Increasing the supply of high end housing is still increasing the supply of homes, and so will still alleviate the pressure on the whole housing market. And it improves the overall quality of our homes and living standards
Building a load of shit houses seems perverse
It's worse than that. If sites where the numbers don't add up when including "affordable homes" at the madndated rate don't get built, you lose all the houses that might have been built there, not just the affordable ones.
The reason homes are unaffordable is because they are to expensive to build (including land with planning). This is not rocket science. Gut planning, roll back building regs to how they were in 2000, problem solved.
Window cleaning firm comes round looking to quote for business. Chats with Mrs RP. Inside 2 minutes he's extolling his views about immigrants. Hang on, says Mrs RP, my dad was an immigrant. No, not ones like you, the dirty ones on the boats, we have to stop all that".
Gets sent away. Oh, they're doing VAT fraud as well.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
People have been claiming Reform have been rumbled for a long time now. Like people calling a stock market crash they will be right eventually.
Hopefully i can be right on a one shot call on Reform If voters stick with them beyond the tail end of this year then ill admit i know fuck all about Reforms prospects
Quite frankly none of us do, about any party, there’s a long way to go it can only be educated guesses or wishcasting.
Oh i agree. Im not setting up as an oracle any time soon. But 2026 definitely wont go as well for Reform as 2025. Two massive elections where they are not in the lead and wont win most seats or wards (Scotland and London) snd dozens of councils thry cannot win as only a third up etc. And they are no longer a shiny new pin. Last time was all Reform (and a bit of Libbery) This time there will be things to point to for everyone (even if its smoke and mirrors)
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
The fundamentals won’t change unless and until people see Reform as less of a “NOTA” party to exercise their protest and more as a party who could actually be put in charge of the country (and the resulting downsides).
The only time that will happen is when actual power is on the table.
I doubt for that reason they will underwhelm in May. Certainly not in England. Scotland/Wales are a bit more interesting in the sense there is a government to be formed in both places (albeit devolved) so how they perform vs the polling in both places could be a bit more helpful in understanding how they might perform in a GE.
Forcing builders to make a proportion of their construction “affordable homes” looks like a really stupid idea to me
They should be allowed to build whatever the hell they want, within a sensible planning framework. They are businesses which need to make money if they’re going to build the number of homes we need
Increasing the supply of high end housing is still increasing the supply of homes, and so will still alleviate the pressure on the whole housing market. And it improves the overall quality of our homes and living standards
Building a load of shit houses seems perverse
Yep, people will buy whatever the bank can lend them. If we make poxy small houses, people will buy them and banks will lend to those because that is the available stock; if nice and larger houses were available, the national standard of housing rises and people live in superior housing because that's the available stock for banks to lend against.
United Kingdom The United Kingdom once had the most expansive houses by size in Europe with a former average size of 1,590 square feet. Nowadays, this area size has diminished to 818 square feet.
Just shocking really. Probably one of the contributors to the rising mental ill health in this country.
The comparison is particularly marked with the Netherlands, a country as densely populated as south-east England, but as your link says:
"The average home size in the Netherlands is 1,261 square feet, placing it at spot nine on the list. The country has an efficient approach to living spaces as Dutch homeowners prioritize functionality and prefer smart layouts that maximize space without compromising comfort. They also like their outdoor areas, such as terraces or small gardens, considering them important extensions of living space."
Yeah, my experience (from visiting a few friends, so limited) is that they make nice, spacious but small footprint homes. Often over three or four floors. Often the loft is built as proper useful living space too.
The Dutch frequently seem like a more sensible version of us. I wonder what is their secret?
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
The fundamentals won’t change unless and until people see Reform as less of a “NOTA” party to exercise their protest and more as a party who could actually be put in charge of the country (and the resulting downsides).
The only time that will happen is when actual power is on the table.
I doubt for that reason they will underwhelm in May. Certainly not in England. Scotland/Wales are a bit more interesting in the sense there is a government to be formed in both places (albeit devolved) so how they perform vs the polling in both places could be a bit more helpful in understanding how they might perform in a GE.
Theyll do very very well in England. Not as well as 2025 though.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
The opinion poll graph on wikipedia would suggest that Reform peaked during conference season last year, with the Tories bottoming out at the same point, so well before the defections at the start of this year, though there's no sign of them arresting Reform's decline.
This raises the question as to whether the defections of Zahawi, Braverman and Jenrick will be seen as the first time that rats have joined a sinking ship?
If anyone wants to dig into the weeds of the polling data and find out whether there's a particular segment of voters who have returned to the Tories, or put forward a reasoned argument as to why this has happened (and therefore, whether we could expect it to continue) then I think it would make a great guest article.
Reform are no longer making the running on the right. Unless you're promising to deport millions of legal residents with jobs, friends, colleagues and neighbours, then you're part of the liberal consensus. It's the natural evolution for those who fundamentally don't like seeing non whites. What proportion of Reform's current vote that is is unclear. But it's certainly a noisy and active proportion with a gigantic foreign megaphone.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Yes, and I think that could be pretty off-putting to Labour to Reform switchers, of which there are currently many. A re-hashed right-wing Tory party is less appealing to them than a genuinely 'new' alternative. There are absolutely no significant (MPs, etc,) defections from Labour to Reform - Farage must be desperate to attract a few Labour big beasts, but there's no sign of that happening.
Reform are no longer making the running on the right. Unless you're promising to deport millions of legal residents with jobs, friends, colleagues and neighbours, then you're part of the liberal consensus. It's the natural evolution for those who fundamentally don't like seeing non whites. What proportion of Reform's current vote that is is unclear. But it's certainly a noisy and active proportion with a gigantic foreign megaphone.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Reform's newly announced Shadow Cabinet is 100% privately educated.
Britain has not had a 100% privately educated Cabinet since 1955.
Taking Britain back to the 1950s is party policy I believe.
In a parallel universe, somebody builds a time machine and takes them all back there.
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
Are you sure? Grey days, London smogs, political distance from Europe, hanging, flogging and signs in lodgings windows demanding no dogs etc. They'd love it.
Cross fingers that the High Court sees the CPS action for what it is: an egregious attack on the fundamental value of free speech in this country.
Burning the Quran, the Bible or any other religious text might be offensive, but it should not be a crime to offend. Freedom of religion goes both ways - the freedom to practice & the freedom to condemn the practice.
Reform's newly announced Shadow Cabinet is 100% privately educated.
Britain has not had a 100% privately educated Cabinet since 1955.
Taking Britain back to the 1950s is party policy I believe.
In a parallel universe, somebody builds a time machine and takes them all back there.
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
Are you sure? Grey days, London smogs, political distance from Europe, hanging, flogging and signs in lodgings windows demanding no dogs etc. They'd love it.
They THINK they'd love it. But they'd be powerless oiks.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
Anyway, back in London 2026, i think overall control will look like this......
Tory 4 to 6 Lib Dem 3 Reform 2
Of the remaining 21 to 23 most are Labour at the moment but how many do they lose and how many if any go Green? Labour surely hold on to 10? Bulk of the rest (say 12) fall into NoC? Obv not allowing for the odd Aspire/Newham indies situation
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Let's hope it is really vicious, really dirty, really entertaining, really destructive of each.
Reform's newly announced Shadow Cabinet is 100% privately educated.
Britain has not had a 100% privately educated Cabinet since 1955.
Taking Britain back to the 1950s is party policy I believe.
In a parallel universe, somebody builds a time machine and takes them all back there.
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
Are you sure? Grey days, London smogs, political distance from Europe, hanging, flogging and signs in lodgings windows demanding no dogs etc. They'd love it.
They THINK they'd love it. But they'd be powerless oiks.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Let's hope it is really vicious, really dirty, really entertaining, really destructive of each.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
The any old shit party
WeBuyAnyShit.com
Put all your failed cabinet ministers in a bag marked 'cash my twats' and send it to.....
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
I notice that after we expressed surprise yesterday that none of the councillors had followed Rosindell to Reform, I see that two have. Plus Prince who had already gone, that means there are 3 on Havering council.
Reform's newly announced Shadow Cabinet is 100% privately educated.
Britain has not had a 100% privately educated Cabinet since 1955.
Taking Britain back to the 1950s is party policy I believe.
In a parallel universe, somebody builds a time machine and takes them all back there.
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
Are you sure? Grey days, London smogs, political distance from Europe, hanging, flogging and signs in lodgings windows demanding no dogs etc. They'd love it.
They THINK they'd love it. But they'd be powerless oiks.
Much like today then?
Worse than that, becuase they wouldn't be able to set up their own TV station. And neither the BBC nor Associated-Rediffusion would give a platform to a group of spivs who reminded everyone of Lord Haw-Haw.
Reform's newly announced Shadow Cabinet is 100% privately educated.
Britain has not had a 100% privately educated Cabinet since 1955.
Taking Britain back to the 1950s is party policy I believe.
In a parallel universe, somebody builds a time machine and takes them all back there.
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
Are you sure? Grey days, London smogs, political distance from Europe, hanging, flogging and signs in lodgings windows demanding no dogs etc. They'd love it.
They THINK they'd love it. But they'd be powerless oiks.
Much like today then?
Worse than that, becuase they wouldn't be able to set up their own TV station. And neither the BBC nor Associated-Rediffusion would give a platform to a group of spivs who reminded everyone of Lord Haw-Haw.
The very thought of it.
They'd probably end up being mouthpieces for Russia.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
The opinion poll graph on wikipedia would suggest that Reform peaked during conference season last year, with the Tories bottoming out at the same point, so well before the defections at the start of this year, though there's no sign of them arresting Reform's decline.
This raises the question as to whether the defections of Zahawi, Braverman and Jenrick will be seen as the first time that rats have joined a sinking ship?
If anyone wants to dig into the weeds of the polling data and find out whether there's a particular segment of voters who have returned to the Tories, or put forward a reasoned argument as to why this has happened (and therefore, whether we could expect it to continue) then I think it would make a great guest article.
Perhaps we’re making a mistake in seeing politics in terms of popularity - focusing on levels of positive voter support for each party and for individual leaders or potential leaders?
Maybe the sad reality is that it’s all a question of which politicians we hate the most, with many voters casting their votes negatively? Hence, the steady stream of relatively extreme and unpopular Tories switching from Conservative to Reform have simply taken their own quota of unpopularity with them, to their new political home?
Braverman says Reform UK would abolish 'equalities department' ... (In fact, there isn’t a government equalities department. There was a Government Equalities Office, but now it is the women and equalities unit in the Cabinet Office.)
Braverman to abolish women ?
Much worse. She has said she will get rid of the Equality Act on Day One.
This consolidates all discrimination legislation from 1973 onwards so she would put women, for instance (and many other groups of course) back into the pre-1973 position. Vote Reform if you want to be able to discriminate against women.
There is no party in this country which stands up for the rights of women.
Forcing builders to make a proportion of their construction “affordable homes” looks like a really stupid idea to me
They should be allowed to build whatever the hell they want, within a sensible planning framework. They are businesses which need to make money if they’re going to build the number of homes we need
Increasing the supply of high end housing is still increasing the supply of homes, and so will still alleviate the pressure on the whole housing market. And it improves the overall quality of our homes and living standards
Building a load of shit houses seems perverse
Surely what we need is more publicly owned houses (council houses) available to rent for those who need houses. Thatcher's sales of council houses simply, over the years, transferred many of those houses to private landlords. There are plenty of houses being built locally, all for sale at what seems high prices.
No, there are not plenty of houses, we have a chronic shortage of houses.
Those that are getting built and sold at high prices is because there is insufficient sums getting built and aols to scratch the surface on the shortage.
Can only say it doesn't look like that round here.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
I notice that after we expressed surprise yesterday that none of the councillors had followed Rosindell to Reform, I see that two have. Plus Prince who had already gone, that means there are 3 on Havering council.
And I am hearing on the grapevine - not official - that the entire Conservative group on Redbridge council (such as it is) has defected en masse to Reform? You heard it here, first!
Iran news: there’s a lot more US aircraft now heading to the Middle East. After three AWACS arrived yesterday, could these be the final piece of the puzzle before the attack?
On this mornings YouGov, just to show how shallow they have Reforms 'dominance', a 1% swing from Ref to both Lab and Con and losing just 1% to Restore sees the fall to second in seats with Nowcast and a virtual 3 way tie in seats between Lab, Ref and Con
Russia news: the country is now very close to running out of oil storage capacity, which is going to start impacting production rates. Can’t keep pumping it out of the ground if there’s nowhere to keep it.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
The wikipedia page on the name Nigel starts with: "The English Nigel is found in records dating from the Middle Ages; however, it was not used much before being revived by 19th-century antiquarians..." Nominative determinism strikes again.
Come the General Election... whenever it may be , it will be very interesting to see what Farage's mob poll.. 12%? ...or less?
No sign in local elections that they will exceed 30% in mid term with favourable exposure and all the protest turn out advantages. As such, low 20s% seems a starting point for the conversation
Youth unemployment is 16.1% and rising yet the government just doesn't seem to care. Add in spurious benefits claimants for "mental health" etc... and the true scale of unemployment among young people will be closer to 30%.
This is the most urgent emergency of the day. The Tories need a relentless focus on youth unemployment and creating opportunities for the next generation. Literally spend the next three years on it. Labour are creating a jobless generation that won't have the skills or motivation for work and not only will it be terrible for state finances, it will cause decades of depression for those who are never able to start a career and find themselves constantly in temporary or casual work.
Regrettably, the NMW has proven yet again that you can have too much of a good thing.
Increasing the NMW has two effects. It makes work worth doing and it takes people off the UC indirect subsidy that companies get. There may be a third where there is a greater tax take but that depends on fiscal drag. Essentially a higher NMW converts those from taking from the state via UC to those contributing to the state via taxes.
Assuming the value that they add to companies makes it worth hiring them. If not they got locked into unemployment
What happened to "the reason why British productivity is so poor is because our labour is too cheap so it's not worth investing in efficiency improvements such as automation"?
You are mixing up cost and value
It only makes sense for an employer to hire if value produced > cost.
Value produced can also be increased through capex.
But what employers are really interested is returns.
So (nb this assumes all employees are as productive as each other which isn’t the case)
Base case
Capital invested 5,000 Value produced = 1,500 Fully loaded cost = 500 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 1,000 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 800 Return = 16% (vs typical cost of capital of 12%)
Increased NMW
Capital invested 5,000 Value produced = 1,500 Fully loaded cost = 800 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 700 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 560 Return = 11% (below cost of capital)
Business is not sustainable - scale back, higher fewer people, let some of the less productive go
Invest in capex
Capital invested 7,000 Value produced = 2,000 Fully loaded cost = 500 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 1,500 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 1,200 Return = 17% (vs typical cost of capital of 12%)
But real life is never as simple as this.
Capex works provided you can finance it and are willing to take the stress of running a more complex business. But if you can apply downward pressure on wages (eg through immigration) then you can increase returns for less risk
Increasing the NMW without increasing productivity prices some employees out of jobs if their cost exceeds their value
This is where you come back to the importance of investing in people / education by the government.
A great piece. Have you the scars?
If a UK employer is not looking to replace people every year / churn staff, then they will get caught out. The rate at which some skills become obsolete is increasing. Just look at the change of product coming out of China in the last 20 years.
Iran news: there’s a lot more US aircraft now heading to the Middle East. After three AWACS arrived yesterday, could these be the final piece of the puzzle before the attack?
Anyway, back in London 2026, i think overall control will look like this......
Tory 4 to 6 Lib Dem 3 Reform 2
Of the remaining 21 to 23 most are Labour at the moment but how many do they lose and how many if any go Green? Labour surely hold on to 10? Bulk of the rest (say 12) fall into NoC? Obv not allowing for the odd Aspire/Newham indies situation
The low point for Labour in the last cycle was 2006, which ended up
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
I give you Monty Don's dog, Nigel, beloved by many, bringing joy to gardeners every Friday evening.
Come the General Election... whenever it may be , it will be very interesting to see what Farage's mob poll.. 12%?
You think Lowe will grab that much of their vote?
2 to 3% if he fields a big slate. Hes got about the pulling power of Nuttalls UKIP or Griffins 2010 BNP with a small rocket booster Between 500,000 and a million votes.
Anyway, back in London 2026, i think overall control will look like this......
Tory 4 to 6 Lib Dem 3 Reform 2
Of the remaining 21 to 23 most are Labour at the moment but how many do they lose and how many if any go Green? Labour surely hold on to 10? Bulk of the rest (say 12) fall into NoC? Obv not allowing for the odd Aspire/Newham indies situation
The low point for Labour in the last cycle was 2006, which ended up
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
The opinion poll graph on wikipedia would suggest that Reform peaked during conference season last year, with the Tories bottoming out at the same point, so well before the defections at the start of this year, though there's no sign of them arresting Reform's decline.
This raises the question as to whether the defections of Zahawi, Braverman and Jenrick will be seen as the first time that rats have joined a sinking ship?
If anyone wants to dig into the weeds of the polling data and find out whether there's a particular segment of voters who have returned to the Tories, or put forward a reasoned argument as to why this has happened (and therefore, whether we could expect it to continue) then I think it would make a great guest article.
Perhaps we’re making a mistake in seeing politics in terms of popularity - focusing on levels of positive voter support for each party and for individual leaders or potential leaders?
Maybe the sad reality is that it’s all a question of which politicians we hate the most, with many voters casting their votes negatively? Hence, the steady stream of relatively extreme and unpopular Tories switching from Conservative to Reform have simply taken their own quota of unpopularity with them, to their new political home?
Could be. The first defection of a sitting Tory MP to Reform this Parliament was Danny Kruger (15th September 2025), which roughly coincides with the Reform peak.
There have been four sitting Tory MPs, plus one former MP who held one of the Great Offices of State (Zahawi, Chancellor) who have defected this Parliament, and Reform have lost ~2.5pp in the same period, so each MP/major Cabinet Minister seems to be worth about 0.5pp off the Reform poll score.
About 16 more such defections should drive the Reform poll score down to 20%. Truss would probably count extra.
Youth unemployment is 16.1% and rising yet the government just doesn't seem to care. Add in spurious benefits claimants for "mental health" etc... and the true scale of unemployment among young people will be closer to 30%.
This is the most urgent emergency of the day. The Tories need a relentless focus on youth unemployment and creating opportunities for the next generation. Literally spend the next three years on it. Labour are creating a jobless generation that won't have the skills or motivation for work and not only will it be terrible for state finances, it will cause decades of depression for those who are never able to start a career and find themselves constantly in temporary or casual work.
Regrettably, the NMW has proven yet again that you can have too much of a good thing.
Increasing the NMW has two effects. It makes work worth doing and it takes people off the UC indirect subsidy that companies get. There may be a third where there is a greater tax take but that depends on fiscal drag. Essentially a higher NMW converts those from taking from the state via UC to those contributing to the state via taxes.
Assuming the value that they add to companies makes it worth hiring them. If not they got locked into unemployment
What happened to "the reason why British productivity is so poor is because our labour is too cheap so it's not worth investing in efficiency improvements such as automation"?
You are mixing up cost and value
It only makes sense for an employer to hire if value produced > cost.
Value produced can also be increased through capex.
But what employers are really interested is returns.
So (nb this assumes all employees are as productive as each other which isn’t the case)
Base case
Capital invested 5,000 Value produced = 1,500 Fully loaded cost = 500 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 1,000 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 800 Return = 16% (vs typical cost of capital of 12%)
Increased NMW
Capital invested 5,000 Value produced = 1,500 Fully loaded cost = 800 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 700 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 560 Return = 11% (below cost of capital)
Business is not sustainable - scale back, higher fewer people, let some of the less productive go
Invest in capex
Capital invested 7,000 Value produced = 2,000 Fully loaded cost = 500 Pre - tax profit (corporation) = 1,500 Tax = 20% Post tax profit = 1,200 Return = 17% (vs typical cost of capital of 12%)
But real life is never as simple as this.
Capex works provided you can finance it and are willing to take the stress of running a more complex business. But if you can apply downward pressure on wages (eg through immigration) then you can increase returns for less risk
Increasing the NMW without increasing productivity prices some employees out of jobs if their cost exceeds their value
This is where you come back to the importance of investing in people / education by the government.
That’s fine and all but if the NMW is too low and you can’t live on it then the business is not sustainable anyway.
This is all very well in theory but it is those on salaries much higher than NMW who can theorise to their hearts content as to the value of employees.
There is that - but it is a symbiotic relationship between employer and employee.
It’s very well to say “raise the NMW”. But if the response is more automation and increased avoidance of NMW - where’s the response to that.
My preferred solution would be to keep NMW reasonable high, ie liveable, and then cut taxes that raise other costs, such as NI, rates, taxes on energy, etc. If the business is not viable purely on the cost of labour due to that labour needing a reasonable standard of living then either that business shouldn’t exist or capitalism doesn’t work.
Subsidy of labour and housing is an aberration. Even the fact the government has to subsidise child care is an aberration and a sign of something seriously wrong.
But now the guy's gotta come up with Paulie's money every week no matter what.
Business bad? Fuck you, pay me. Oh, you had a fire? Fuck you, pay me. Place got hit by lightning huh? Fuck you, pay me."
The government has fiddled with all the variables, for generations. Then wondered why growth has evaporated and business are either going under, raising prices to the stars or employing people illegally.
Only 850 of over 5000 seats affected and will now be fought.
Most in smaller Councils where only fraction of the seats are up for selection
By far biggest sector if the seats now to be fought are in the 4 big County Councils where all seats up and Tories under most pressure from Reform. Councils where Tories wanted voting stopped not Labour.
You can imagine the Reform Election leaflets in these areas now. Labour will not be barely mentioned. It will be full on Reform blutzkreig on the Tories
Makes it all the more baffling that Labour inflicted the wound on themselves.
Perhaps Labour have made a strategic decision to boost Reform at the expense of the Tories because they don't want to face a resurgent Kemi-led Tory party in the GE.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
The line-up did make me think this is what a political party would look like if Dicky Roper set one up.
(Though I suspect he would have drawn the line at Suella.)
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
I give you Monty Don's dog, Nigel, beloved by many, bringing joy to gardeners every Friday evening.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Well... my assumption is that it will have as little impact as the (Musk backed) Advance UK.
Here's the thing. Farage is smart. (Yes, it's true.) He knows there are more votes by being a little to the Right of the Tories than by being a lot. He also knows that disassociating himself from really nasty racist elements (like Tommy Robinson) is a net vote winner.
BUT.
There are a fair number of Reform supporters who probably did vote for the BNP historically, and support them on the basis that (a) they're the best of a bad bunch, and (b) hopefully that Farage is just saying these things 'cause he has to, and he's bashed the foreigners and the EU in the past, so he's probably thinking what I'm thinking. If Advance/Reclaim/Restore/Erase&Rewind were to establish a foothold, then they might be able to pull 5% or so out of Reform. (I guess this is possible, too, if Reform's running of local councils looks no better than Lab/Lib/Con.)
Braverman says Reform UK would abolish 'equalities department' ... (In fact, there isn’t a government equalities department. There was a Government Equalities Office, but now it is the women and equalities unit in the Cabinet Office.)
Braverman to abolish women ?
Much worse. She has said she will get rid of the Equality Act on Day One.
This consolidates all discrimination legislation from 1973 onwards so she would put women, for instance (and many other groups of course) back into the pre-1973 position. Vote Reform if you want to be able to discriminate against women.
There is no party in this country which stands up for the rights of women.
That is their aspiration across the board, I think.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Well... my assumption is that it will have as little impact as the (Musk backed) Advance UK.
Here's the thing. Farage is smart. (Yes, it's true.) He knows there are more votes by being a little to the Right of the Tories than by being a lot. He also knows that disassociating himself from really nasty racist elements (like Tommy Robinson) is a net vote winner.
BUT.
There are a fair number of Reform supporters who probably did vote for the BNP historically, and support them on the basis that (a) they're the best of a bad bunch, and (b) hopefully that Farage is just saying these things 'cause he has to, and he's bashed the foreigners and the EU in the past, so he's probably thinking what I'm thinking. If Advance/Reclaim/Restore/Erase&Rewind were to establish a foothold, then they might be able to pull 5% or so out of Reform. (I guess this is possible, too, if Reform's running of local councils looks no better than Lab/Lib/Con.)
The goldilocks scenario for Reform is if Restore establish themselves not by cannibalising Reform, but by providing a foil to help Reform cannibalise the mainstream centre-right vote, with perhaps the same effect pushing the Tories onto Labour's territory.
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
At the summit looking down. My opinion is the unveiling if Zahawi will be looked back upon as the beginning of the end The cracks will start showing in an underwhelming Scottish and London performance in May (and Gorton etc if they lose it)
Taking Zahawi showed an overarching lack of ambition.
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
It's not just that Zahawi, Braverman, Rosindell and Jenrick are old faces from 2019-24- it's that they are objectively some of the worst faces from that era. Not so much reform as revolting.
Indeed. Farage is clearly trying very hard to present something more than a one-man band, but ironically it’s simply more obvious how dependent they are on Farage for their branding as ‘plucky insurgents’. Take away Farage, and what do they have? A bunch of wealthy right-wing individuals like Tice and Yusuf and Oakeshott with no voter appeal whatsoever, and a load of failed Tory former ministers who were the ones that got our country into its current predicament in the first place. The truth is that they more dependent on our Nigel than ever.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
Why have labour closed up on Reform in the betting odds or am I misreading them ?
Reform have been rumbled. Grumpy Tory retirement home. No policies. Empty suits
I think it’s too early to say they’ve been rumbled. They definitely have given their opponents a huge attack line as a collection of disaffected former Tories, and that could (and probably will) come back to bite them, but they’re still polling around 29-31% with most pollsters, and still have a decent lead.
There is a lot of road left to run yet and lots of time for Reform to implode, but we’re not there yet and I’d hazard a guess we won’t be for some time - certainly not this year.
I think those predicting the imminent demise of Reform are likely to be severely disappointed.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
Interesting bit will be what happens when the Rupert the Restore Britain Bear party actually gets created. Rupie and the Nigel have a significant personal disagreement which suggests they won't be reconciled - and will work hard to take each other out.
Well... my assumption is that it will have as little impact as the (Musk backed) Advance UK.
Here's the thing. Farage is smart. (Yes, it's true.) He knows there are more votes by being a little to the Right of the Tories than by being a lot. He also knows that disassociating himself from really nasty racist elements (like Tommy Robinson) is a net vote winner.
BUT.
There are a fair number of Reform supporters who probably did vote for the BNP historically, and support them on the basis that (a) they're the best of a bad bunch, and (b) hopefully that Farage is just saying these things 'cause he has to, and he's bashed the foreigners and the EU in the past, so he's probably thinking what I'm thinking. If Advance/Reclaim/Restore/Erase&Rewind were to establish a foothold, then they might be able to pull 5% or so out of Reform. (I guess this is possible, too, if Reform's running of local councils looks no better than Lab/Lib/Con.)
The goldilocks scenario for Reform is if Restore establish themselves not by cannibalising Reform, but by providing a foil to help Reform cannibalise the mainstream centre-right vote, with perhaps the same effect pushing the Tories onto Labour's territory.
Lowe can reach the "old traditional home counties / countryside Tories, that Farage could never reach.
Comments
If voters stick with them beyond the tail end of this year then ill admit i know fuck all about Reforms prospects
The nickname Retreads deserves to stick.
Gets sent away. Oh, they're doing VAT fraud as well.
When did bigotry and racism become normalised?
I pointed out back in 2023 that Labour’s plebs was a recipe for bad government.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/11/06/class-warfare/
The reason homes are unaffordable is because they are to expensive to build (including land with planning). This is not rocket science. Gut planning, roll back building regs to how they were in 2000, problem solved.
And pre 1990ish.
But 2026 definitely wont go as well for Reform as 2025.
Two massive elections where they are not in the lead and wont win most seats or wards (Scotland and London) snd dozens of councils thry cannot win as only a third up etc. And they are no longer a shiny new pin.
Last time was all Reform (and a bit of Libbery)
This time there will be things to point to for everyone (even if its smoke and mirrors)
The only time that will happen is when actual power is on the table.
I doubt for that reason they will underwhelm in May. Certainly not in England. Scotland/Wales are a bit more interesting in the sense there is a government to be formed in both places (albeit devolved) so how they perform vs the polling in both places could be a bit more helpful in understanding how they might perform in a GE.
On the other hand, the easy part (for them) has now been done. They've got to 30%. But they haven't managed to 'unite the right', and the Conservatives have been getting their act together in the last few months and have seen their vote share start to rise, mostly at the expense of Reform.
Running councils might also a bit of a poisoned chalice for Reform. Promising easy savings while delivering big rises in Council Tax is unlikely to endear them to voters.
That said, Reform are going to be the big winners in May (with the Greens also significant gainers, one would think, while the LDs are likely to put in a decent but not stellar performance).
They'd hate it. They'd be treated as classless oiks who didn't do a thing in the War.
This raises the question as to whether the defections of Zahawi, Braverman and Jenrick will be seen as the first time that rats have joined a sinking ship?
If anyone wants to dig into the weeds of the polling data and find out whether there's a particular segment of voters who have returned to the Tories, or put forward a reasoned argument as to why this has happened (and therefore, whether we could expect it to continue) then I think it would make a great guest article.
Unless you're promising to deport millions of legal residents with jobs, friends, colleagues and neighbours, then you're part of the liberal consensus.
It's the natural evolution for those who fundamentally don't like seeing non whites.
What proportion of Reform's current vote that is is unclear.
But it's certainly a noisy and active proportion with a gigantic foreign megaphone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3v7w1yw771o
Cross fingers that the High Court sees the CPS action for what it is: an egregious attack on the fundamental value of free speech in this country.
Burning the Quran, the Bible or any other religious text might be offensive, but it should not be a crime to offend. Freedom of religion goes both ways - the freedom to practice & the freedom to condemn the practice.
RIP Jenricks big boy trousers.
And, honestly, has anyone called Nigel ever won power and done great things? Has any country anywhere at any time in history had a King Nigel? Or a first minister called Nigel? What inventions or compositions or transformative ideas that have shaped our modern world has anyone called Nigel ever produced?
Tory 4 to 6
Lib Dem 3
Reform 2
Of the remaining 21 to 23 most are Labour at the moment but how many do they lose and how many if any go Green?
Labour surely hold on to 10? Bulk of the rest (say 12) fall into NoC?
Obv not allowing for the odd Aspire/Newham indies situation
What sort of prick puts nutella on a pancake?
The very thought of it.
Talking of pancakes, the original idea was to eat all the stuff you weren't allowed during lent.
If you find you have no eggs in the house, is it permitted to buy some expressly for the purpose? Asking for a friend.
India and France have decided to elevate their strategic partnership to the level of a Special Global Strategic Partnership.
In diplomacy, that means a great deal.
Much like today then...
It was the Church that got antsy about thst sort of thing, God doesnt give a shit
Maybe the sad reality is that it’s all a question of which politicians we hate the most, with many voters casting their votes negatively? Hence, the steady stream of relatively extreme and unpopular Tories switching from Conservative to Reform have simply taken their own quota of unpopularity with them, to their new political home?
This consolidates all discrimination legislation from 1973 onwards so she would put women, for instance (and many other groups of course) back into the pre-1973 position. Vote Reform if you want to be able to discriminate against women.
There is no party in this country which stands up for the rights of women.
We have a shortfall of millions of homes.
12%? ...or less?
https://x.com/osint613/status/2023741350110171178
https://x.com/beefeater_fella/status/2023743840818020790
And about 28.8% incl YG
As such, low 20s% seems a starting point for the conversation
If a UK employer is not looking to replace people every year / churn staff, then they will get caught out. The rate at which some skills become obsolete is increasing. Just look at the change of product coming out of China in the last 20 years.
Con 14
Lab 7 (B+D, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Lambeth, Newham, Tower Hamlets)
LD 3
NOC 8 (Brent, Camdem, Houslow, Islington, Lewisham, Merton, Southwark, Waltham Forest)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_London_local_elections
Hes got about the pulling power of Nuttalls UKIP or Griffins 2010 BNP with a small rocket booster
Between 500,000 and a million votes.
I dont actually see them under 7.
There have been four sitting Tory MPs, plus one former MP who held one of the Great Offices of State (Zahawi, Chancellor) who have defected this Parliament, and Reform have lost ~2.5pp in the same period, so each MP/major Cabinet Minister seems to be worth about 0.5pp off the Reform poll score.
About 16 more such defections should drive the Reform poll score down to 20%. Truss would probably count extra.
But now the guy's gotta come up with Paulie's money every week no matter what.
Business bad? Fuck you, pay me.
Oh, you had a fire? Fuck you, pay me.
Place got hit by lightning huh? Fuck you, pay me."
The government has fiddled with all the variables, for generations. Then wondered why growth has evaporated and business are either going under, raising prices to the stars or employing people illegally.
(Though I suspect he would have drawn the line at Suella.)
Here's the thing. Farage is smart. (Yes, it's true.) He knows there are more votes by being a little to the Right of the Tories than by being a lot. He also knows that disassociating himself from really nasty racist elements (like Tommy Robinson) is a net vote winner.
BUT.
There are a fair number of Reform supporters who probably did vote for the BNP historically, and support them on the basis that (a) they're the best of a bad bunch, and (b) hopefully that Farage is just saying these things 'cause he has to, and he's bashed the foreigners and the EU in the past, so he's probably thinking what I'm thinking. If Advance/Reclaim/Restore/Erase&Rewind were to establish a foothold, then they might be able to pull 5% or so out of Reform. (I guess this is possible, too, if Reform's running of local councils looks no better than Lab/Lib/Con.)
Reform want to scrap the Equality Act . Braverman caveats that with not wanting to get rid of all the protections if of course you believe her .
Regardless the opposition need to hammer them on this .
Reform are polling just over 29%, on average, a huge .... 1.5%, below their average poll rating at the conference season.
It's like asserting that Trump could not win, because one did not want him to win.
NEW THREAD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Gresley
Mrs Flatlander is native to these parts thanks to the railways, so we have an employment document signed by the man himself.