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The betting moves sharply to the Greens today in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,944
edited February 12 in General
The betting moves sharply to the Greens today in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com

I am not sure what has inspired this movement, in the past it usually a legitimate poll that triggers movements like this given how Reform and Labour have both fallen.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Legitimate first?
  • CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20
  • Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,537
    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Trumpian - tse claims a first and the Sweeny move in to make sure it's 'true'.
  • Omnium said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Trumpian - tse claims a first and the Sweeny move in to make sure it's 'true'.
    have you ever seen us in the same room at the same time?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    edited February 12
    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,478
    I think the Greens are going to take it.

    Why would anyone vote Labour right now? What's the point,m
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332

    I think the Greens are going to take it.

    Why would anyone vote Labour right now? What's the point,m

    Agreed. Its all headwinds for them
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,546

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,537

    I think the Greens are going to take it.

    Why would anyone vote Labour right now? What's the point,m

    Well Tory is and I hope will always be the right vote. Currently though Labour ranks second for me.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,033
    edited February 12
    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,438
    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.
  • Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Feels like signal-to-noise ratio is doing most of the work here. In a thin by-election market, it doesn’t take much money to generate a lot of “movement”. Odds shortening tells us someone’s confident. It doesn’t tell us they’re right.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
  • Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    I would actually like to see that!
    I'm the one who looks like a slightly younger and more English Brad Pitt
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,900
    Greens were as far out as 5/2 to win, when that 100 sample first poll came out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,478

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    I doubt it will change anything.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jim Ratcliffe's endorsement of Starmer in 2024 is interesting in retrospect:

    https://news.sky.com/story/sir-jim-ratcliffe-scolds-tories-over-handling-of-economy-and-immigration-after-brexit-13139088

    "I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.

    "I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.

    "The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we've got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.

    Is that why he fled to a country with a population density orders of magnitude higher than the UK?
    Monaco was *designed* to accomodate the super rich at high density.
    Ah yes, Monaco - famously designed in 1297 by the Grimaldi family with the explicit brief of "let's create a high-density enclave for future hedge fund managers and oligarchs."
    The Full Monte Carlo.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    Omnium said:

    I think the Greens are going to take it.

    Why would anyone vote Labour right now? What's the point,m

    Well Tory is and I hope will always be the right vote. Currently though Labour ranks second for me.
    My current order would be Tory - UUP - TUV - SNP - PC - DUP - LD - Reform - Alliance - SDLP - Labour - Green - Shinners
    If i were a multi national studbert
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315
    That 19% Reform looks tasty.
    They'd need the Left to split correctly.
    But never underestimate the Left's ability to do exactly that.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 416

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 416

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 88
    edited February 12
    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    they will stay Green, as you'd have to be either ideologically captured or a moron to vote Green in the first place.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 416
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    they will stay Green, as you'd have to be either ideologically captured or a moron to vote Green in the first place.
    Many of the students who will pack the vote won't be there in 3 years time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,616
    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    It's early days; in respect of the next election and the Anti-Reform aspect of it, there is a lot of wriggling still to do. The left of centre + the right of centre who are strongly anti Reform will be up to 60% of the electorate at the next election, and can't be much below 50%. Any result other than a Reform win will be ammunition for the view that Reform can be beaten if the rest are organised.

  • Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    they will stay Green, as you'd have to be either ideologically captured or a moron to vote Green in the first place.
    Many of the students who will pack the vote won't be there in 3 years time.
    indeed, and they'll either stay green for the same reasons as they are now, or they'll not vote at all.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    edited February 12
    dixiedean said:

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
    Yes, agreed, but will it be enough? The big tickets are the nations and capital.
    And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
    An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,438
    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    Only if people still think of the Greens as no-hopers.

    This, and a few other high-profile by-election gains for the Greens, gives them credibility and the lefty vote doesn't 'come home'. And we are fecked.

    A Reform win is good for Labour in the sense that it galvanises the anti-Reform vote to vote for the party best placed to best them (i.e., us), and not risk letting them in as a result of a split opposition.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,410
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    I would actually like to see that!
    I'm the one who looks like a slightly younger and more English Brad Pitt
    The last round of ‘Will Smith eats spaghetti’ test footage I saw was very impressive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,829
    edited February 12

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,722

    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    Pineapple topping?
  • Foss said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    I would actually like to see that!
    I'm the one who looks like a slightly younger and more English Brad Pitt
    The last round of ‘Will Smith eats spaghetti’ test footage I saw was very impressive.
    It was, wasn't it.
    What that last video showed was just how far, how fast AI has come in such a short timeframe.

    But if AI can make me look like a younger Brad Pitt from Liverpool, then I'd be impressed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,438

    dixiedean said:

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
    Yes, agreed, but will it be enough? The big tickets are the nations and capital.
    And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
    An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
    All-out in Bradford. Bloodbath for Labour incoming.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,478

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    Con Gain Bootle.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,438

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    OK, worst credible result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,829
    AnneJGP said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    Pineapple topping?
    TSE comes back from holiday to find the internet has been broken by footage of him eating a pineapple-topped pizza.

    Go on, you know you want to ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,015
    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
  • Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    Con Gain Bootle.
    that's an anagram of Congenital nob, which I think is rather more likely
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315

    dixiedean said:

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
    Yes, agreed, but will it be enough? The big tickets are the nations and capital.
    And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
    An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
    Only because of where the media is based.
    9m people in London. 5.5m in Scotland. 3m in Wales.
    Metro boroughs voting c. 11m.
    When it comes to actual numbers it's the Metros which are the "big ticket".
    Though I appreciate Wandsworth and Westminster will lead the news as ever.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,537

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    OK, worst credible result.
    Maybe.

    Maybe though Labour is simply a leftish coalition against the Tories.

    Both parties have huge issues. The Tories seem to have rather wonderfully found a bug repellent formula. When Labour do too, then normal politics can resume.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,478
    AI just created a brilliant "Con Gain" picture for me, but Vanilla won't let me post it here ;-(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,206

    Am I the only person who gets confused whether AI is Artificial Intelligence or someone called Alastair whenever they read it?

    AI doesn't get confused by that
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    edited February 12
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
    Yes, agreed, but will it be enough? The big tickets are the nations and capital.
    And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
    An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
    Only because of where the media is based.
    9m people in London. 5.5m in Scotland. 3m in Wales.
    Metro boroughs voting c. 11m.
    When it comes to actual numbers it's the Metros which are the "big ticket".
    Though I appreciate Wandsworth and Westminster will lead the news as ever.
    Well, yes. Im talking about what will drive he headlines and narrative.
    There will always be that element of fog in the channel, europe cut off
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,015

    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    Only if people still think of the Greens as no-hopers.

    This, and a few other high-profile by-election gains for the Greens, gives them credibility and the lefty vote doesn't 'come home'. And we are fecked.

    A Reform win is good for Labour in the sense that it galvanises the anti-Reform vote to vote for the party best placed to best them (i.e., us), and not risk letting them in as a result of a split opposition.
    Labour need to win the battle for the left vote and have the one for the right vote fought to a bloody draw. That should deliver a majority and the second half of the decade of national renewal. After that the Tories can have another go if they behave themselves.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,766
    edited February 12

    AnneJGP said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months

    https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20

    The 12–18 month framing is the giveaway. It’s short enough to sound imminent, long enough to avoid immediate falsification. By the time we’re past it, the narrative will have shifted to “adoption takes time”.
    This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
    But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
    That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
    If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
    Well I can make a photorealistic video of you eating it today complete with audio using Seed Dance 2.0. What sauce and sides do you want with it ;-)
    Pineapple topping?
    TSE comes back from holiday to find the internet has been broken by footage of him eating a pineapple-topped pizza.

    Go on, you know you want to ...
    "I'll be in my quarters covered in maple syrup pineapple pizza!"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859
    Absolutely noone is making it down this halfpipe.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,722
    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    Sweeney74 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    Con Gain Bootle.
    that's an anagram of Congenital nob, which I think is rather more likely
    Con gain Bootle is a PB staple from the Brown era
  • isamisam Posts: 43,609
    A podcast here for people who like betting, politics, and betting on politics

    https://x.com/nickluck/status/2021979706430718092?s=20
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859
    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    Only if people still think of the Greens as no-hopers.

    This, and a few other high-profile by-election gains for the Greens, gives them credibility and the lefty vote doesn't 'come home'. And we are fecked.

    A Reform win is good for Labour in the sense that it galvanises the anti-Reform vote to vote for the party best placed to best them (i.e., us), and not risk letting them in as a result of a split opposition.
    Labour need to win the battle for the left vote and have the one for the right vote fought to a bloody draw. That should deliver a majority and the second half of the decade of national renewal. After that the Tories can have another go if they behave themselves.
    All four main parties are in that boat or its mirror image.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,410
    AnneJGP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
    Or put him in a glass box like Lenin.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,537
    Cookie said:

    Absolutely noone is making it down this halfpipe.

    Well that's very true. Cicero (the actual one) couldn't have summarised the current world better.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,765

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    I doubt it will change anything.
    It won't change anything because it is expected. The fact that the worst result for Labour is priced in means the G&D by-election likely won't shift the dial. Starmer should be safe until May, most likely gone after that but far from certainly. He is the 21st century politician most consistently underrated (and I say this as someone who is not a big fan of his).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,206
    edited February 12
    Cookie said:

    Absolutely noone is making it down this halfpipe.

    Are you watching porn again?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,145
    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,765
    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    Larry looks like our cat.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859
    Foss said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
    Or put him in a glass box like Lenin.
    He would be less effective as a mouser in those circumstances.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,597
    Rather sadly, the CIA is stopping publishing the CIA Fact Book, a brilliant and simple resource. Dammit.

    https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxAX6BiDKsvJfQ3vfE2DOind0UWKEQ3iNS

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,546

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    Larry looks like our cat.
    Your cat can go on the shortlist to be appointed Larry 2.0
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,410
    Cookie said:

    Foss said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
    Or put him in a glass box like Lenin.
    He would be less effective as a mouser in those circumstances.
    I was rather assuming he was dead by that point - a state more likely to attract vermin than repel them
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,765

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    Larry looks like our cat.
    Your cat can go on the shortlist to be appointed Larry 2.0
    They can't have him! He is adored in our house. Also, he will catch no mice.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    Foss said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
    Or put him in a glass box like Lenin.
    Or Jeremy Bentham
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just musing on the result here and possible knock on effects.....
    Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
    Potential for the bubble to burst?

    Certainly.
    However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
    Yes, agreed, but will it be enough? The big tickets are the nations and capital.
    And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
    An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
    Only because of where the media is based.
    9m people in London. 5.5m in Scotland. 3m in Wales.
    Metro boroughs voting c. 11m.
    When it comes to actual numbers it's the Metros which are the "big ticket".
    Though I appreciate Wandsworth and Westminster will lead the news as ever.
    Well, yes. Im talking about what will drive he headlines and narrative.
    There will always be that element of fog in the channel, europe cut off
    Indeed.
    I fear a complacent "Reform can't win in Scotland, Wales or London therefore can't win a UK GE" narrative.
    Which, like the Brexit vote will be wholly false.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,765
    viewcode said:

    Rather sadly, the CIA is stopping publishing the CIA Fact Book, a brilliant and simple resource. Dammit.

    https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxAX6BiDKsvJfQ3vfE2DOind0UWKEQ3iNS

    Facts have no place in Trump's America.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,722
    Cookie said:

    Foss said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    If they managed to find one body double, there's no reason why Larry shouldn't regenerate as many times as Dr Who.
    Or put him in a glass box like Lenin.
    He would be less effective as a mouser in those circumstances.
    Trouble with Dr Who style regeneration is he might turn into a dog. Or a rabbit or something.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Absolutely noone is making it down this halfpipe.

    Are you watching porn again?
    Well of course. But also, I think out of the last 14 women to descend this half pipe, only one has managed to stay upright all the way to the bottom.
    Which is reassuring in a way, because it looks ridiculously difficult.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859
    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,596
    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Small Gods if I recall correctly. A grave digger?
  • Sweeney74 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then their world would have truly turned upside down....
    Con Gain Bootle.
    that's an anagram of Congenital nob, which I think is rather more likely
    Con gain Bootle is a PB staple from the Brown era
    You know I should remember that, since I was here at that time
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315
    We've already begun that narrative on here.
    Several discussions about who will win which London boroughs.
    Nowt AFAIK on the subject of who will win Birmingham. The size of three or four London boroughs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,596

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Agreed. They are then no longer the party of the left. So what the hell are they (apart from a self serving bunch of hypocrites, natch)?
  • DavidL said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Small Gods if I recall correctly. A grave digger?
    He was the grave digger at the cemetery of Small Gods in the novel Night Watch... not sure if he was in Small Gods which was set in Omnia
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,597
    viewcode said:

    Rather sadly, the CIA is stopping publishing the CIA Fact Book, a brilliant and simple resource. Dammit.

    https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxAX6BiDKsvJfQ3vfE2DOind0UWKEQ3iNS

    By comparison, the yearly Official Handbook/Yearbook of the United Kingdom hasn't been published since 2005
    • 'Britain: An official handbook' (published yearly 1954-1998),
    • 'Britain: The official yearbook of the United Kingdom' (published yearly 1999-2001), and
    • 'UK: The official yearbook of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland' (published yearly 2002-2005).
    https://digital.nls.uk/britain-and-uk-handbooks/archive/207357489

    :(
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,765
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
    Most of whom arrived when the Tories were in power. But of course it is the fault of the left...
  • Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
    Yeah a population on par with the city of Birmingham in 5 years... That's huge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315
    It's finally going to stop raining!!!
    Snow for Friday and Sunday instead.
  • Letby baby deaths would have been avoided in ‘well-functioning hospital’
    ‘Compelling grounds’ to believe Letby is innocent, former head of Irish maternity unit claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/825006e7ab305146

    Gift link so no paywall.
  • Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Absolutely noone is making it down this halfpipe.

    Are you watching porn again?
    Well of course. But also, I think out of the last 14 women to descend this half pipe, only one has managed to stay upright all the way to the bottom.
    Which is reassuring in a way, because it looks ridiculously difficult.
    Still not clear what it is you're watching :open_mouth:
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,120
    edited February 12

    Brixian59 said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Fundamentally disagree

    A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.

    Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.

    Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.

    Only if people still think of the Greens as no-hopers.

    This, and a few other high-profile by-election gains for the Greens, gives them credibility and the lefty vote doesn't 'come home'. And we are fecked.

    A Reform win is good for Labour in the sense that it galvanises the anti-Reform vote to vote for the party best placed to best them (i.e., us), and not risk letting them in as a result of a split opposition.
    Going into the next GE it seems highly unlikely that the Greens will be seen as likely to win it so a lot of left of centre voters will drift back to Labour, even if people are voting through gritted teeth.

    Reform, on the other hand, could well be seen as capable of winning so it will be much harder for the Tories to convince voters that voting Reform is a "wasted vote"

    Unless the right gets strongly behind either the Tories or Reform I can easily see Labour winning again with about 34% of the vote.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,315

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
    You think the Tories will get 9.5% in G+D?
    They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,143

    Legitimate first?

    Accepting that not all of them in past have been? Bold.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
    Most of whom arrived when the Tories were in power. But of course it is the fault of the left...
    Which of course is why the Tories are in the mess they arem But it tends to be the left making the you-can't-complain-about-immigration argument.
    I'm not convinced Starmer did himself any favours having a pop at Jim Ratcliffe.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 416

    kinabalu said:

    Brixian59 said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sir Chris Wormald gone

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2021989386615685312

    Sir Chris Wormald has stood down with immediate effect as Cabinet Secretary after a year in office

    There will be a pretty extraordinary payoff - said to be in the region of £250,000

    He is the shortest-serving Cabinet Secretary in history
    I'd volunteer for the job on that basis.

    Hey, Keir !!
    Very worried about who Keir Starmer will blame when there is literally no one else left in Number 10.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2022005105336451194?s=20
    Larry the Cat better watch out.
    Larry the Cat is getting on a bit. Hopefully we won't find out whether Starmer gets a dead cat bounce.
    Larry is nearly 20 the old legend
    I have it on very good authority that this is the 2nd Larry. The original passed during Covid.
    Don't be saying that. Larry is important to national morale.
    Larry looks like our cat.
    Your cat can go on the shortlist to be appointed Larry 2.0
    The current Larry is version 2.0

    Larry 1 died aged 13 in 2020.

    It was at the height of the first wave of Covid in the late Spring.

    The fact no Pressspack were around enabled a search for a suitable replacement who was about 8 years old.

    Larry V2 is now 13 to 14 years old. That's why he looks young for a 20 year old which Larry V1 would be.

    There were frenzied conversations about the impact of announcing Larry had passed, rumours pets could get and pass Covid or equally Covid ame from cats.

    The conspiracy theorists would have had a field day.

    I'm told that if you know what you are looking for their are small differences.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Scandalous.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/af4cc570a8281291

    The Telegraph has revealed that children, including ones with learning difficulties, have been promised up to £500 in vouchers, which can be redeemed at retailers like XBOX & Uber Eats, if they take part in an NHS 'transgender' trial to block their puberty

    Not necessarily. Actually *reading* the article it says...

    It can now be revealed that the children taking part in the trial will be incentivised with the promise of up to £500 in vouchers for completing psychometric tests. These will measure the effect of the puberty blockers on their brains, including effects on impulse control and memory...Participants, aged under 16, will receive £30 vouchers for each of the 15 cognitive assessments they complete, as well as £15 vouchers for each of the three MRI scans they undertake, over the two years of the trial...Children in another arm of the trial, not taking the drugs, will be given £15 vouchers for each bone density scan and blood test they have.

    Points to note
    • The children are already in the trial and have been randomised into one of the two arms, so they've already been consented.
    • Those in the intervention arm (on the drugs) are paid a nominal amount (£15 or £30) for each of the tests (cogntive assessments or MRI scans) they undertake
    • Those in the control arm (not on the drugs) are paid a nominal amount (£15) for each of the tests (bone density scan and blood test) they undertake
    In short the participants are paid nominal sums to take part in tests they have already agreed to prior to assignment, and that this is an incentive to complete the trial, not an incentive to take part in the trial. Since a criticism of many studies in the trans sphere is dropout rate, this is a good idea.

    There's a concept in RCT called "equipoise". The surgeons/doctors in a study must be genuinely undecided/unbiased as to which of the two arms is better, and the patients must be equally noncommittal: this enables randomisation to take place believably. In trans studies this is difficult since if the patients believe the study is biased or bent towards one outcome they will refuse to take part or simply bugger off to Europe and get the treatment they want there (Baroness Cass pointed this out as a reason to undertake the PATHWAY studies). The PATHWAY designers seem to have created a study that enables equipoise. The fact that these sums are paid to make sure they stay in the study prevents dropout

    (Incidentally @isam, you said last night you wanted to know how tests of drugs in humans take place. You might want to google the term "CTIMP")
    Why are people dropping out? If there is a good reason why they are, the trial should be reporting that as part of the data.

    They should not be remaining in a trial they would otherwise drop out of, solely due to fiscal considerations.
    Dropout rates
    Many studies (most?) have dropout rates. Yes, dropouts are reported. Sample size calculations often incorporate a 10% or even 20% dropout rate to ensure the end amount are still big enough to provide sufficient statistical power to assess the (usually) two arms.

    (Google "dropout rate" if you don't believe me).

    Safety
    Studies are often monitored by one or more external committees, which may combine safety and procedural issues into one committee or separate them into two or more. Those external committees (ie from outside the University or organisation doing the study) will meet at least once a year and often more frequently. If the study is going seriously wrong or not recruiting fast enough then those committees may recommend that the study be terminated, and the people funding the study will also monitor it and may also recommend termination under certain circumstances.

    (Google "adverse events" (AEs) and "serious adverse events" (SAEs) if you don't believe me. )

    Why do people drop out?
    People move house, emigrate, simply want to stop, may develop conditions that prevent them from continuing, or simply die by accident or pre-existing conditions or (God forbid) from the intervention or control. They are there voluntarily, not by force.

    Endpiece
    You seem to think that people are forced to take place in studies and studies are just thrown together by amateurs. This is Britain in the 2020s, and studies involving human subjects are regulated, registered and reported. They will be conducted and monitored by extremely skilled individuals and reported in a serious manner.

    (Google "CTIMP" if you don't believe me, and that's just one example)
    You have misunderstood.

    I never said it is thrown together or anything like that, like ChatGPT you have hallucinated that.

    However you said (previously) that payments were a good idea to prevent drop outs and I responded to say no, it is not, if people wish to drop out they should. They should not remain in the study due to financial payments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,143
    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Tut tut.

    It was 'Night Watch', not 'The Night Watch'.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,537
    A fragile possibility, a strand of belief, a gossamer of hope.

    And then the truth of a Royal Mail delivery strikes home. (apologies @BlancheLivermore , but there's no hiding)
  • kle4 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Legitimate first?

    He was in The Night Watch by TP wasn't he?
    Tut tut.

    It was 'Night Watch', not 'The Night Watch'.
    Sigh, I shall remove myself to Quirm.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,749
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
    Most of whom arrived when the Tories were in power. But of course it is the fault of the left...
    Which of course is why the Tories are in the mess they arem But it tends to be the left making the you-can't-complain-about-immigration argument.
    I'm not convinced Starmer did himself any favours having a pop at Jim Ratcliffe.
    I think it probably helps him more than hinders him. He’s tried appeasing this sort of sentiment in the last 2 years, and it just loses him lefty voters without convincing anyone on the right. He’s simply not credible as an anti immigration tubthumper. His main electoral threat at the moment is the Greens. I think a base strategy is probably sensible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,596
    dixiedean said:

    It's finally going to stop raining!!!
    Snow for Friday and Sunday instead.

    We had snow today and the hills behind our house are still white with it. It makes a nice change from the rain.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,332
    dixiedean said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
    You think the Tories will get 9.5% in G+D?
    They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
    No, it's a tongue in cheek post about 'Labours worst result.'

    They'll do well to save deposit
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,586
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Ch 4 News gives Ratcliffe a well deserved hammering. He avoided £4 billion in tax in the last 5 years lived as a tax exile in Monaco and claimed we had 21 million immigrants when the figure was 3 million. Presumably they were paying the tax he was avoiding

    There's a bit of a side-of-a-bus argument going on here. The left repeatedly making the point that 'only' 3 million immigrants have arrived in the last five years isn't the zinger they think it is.
    Though otoh it highlights ‘hard headed businessman’ Ratcliffe is either speaking through his arse or is a dishonest propagandiser. Also that the right despite their opportunistic outrage is mostly responsible for that 3 million.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,596
    dixiedean said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
    You think the Tories will get 9.5% in G+D?
    They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
    If Labour finished behind the Tories in this bye election Starmer would be gone the next day. But they won't. He has until May to improve things. At that point things are likely to get a bit tricky.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,859

    dixiedean said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
    You think the Tories will get 9.5% in G+D?
    They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
    No, it's a tongue in cheek post about 'Labours worst result.'

    They'll do well to save deposit
    Labour's worst result, of course, would be to get 0 votes. I think the candidate lives elsewhere in Manchester (?) so I suppose this is possible.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,002
    edited February 12
    dixiedean said:

    That 19% Reform looks tasty.
    They'd need the Left to split correctly.
    But never underestimate the Left's ability to do exactly that.

    They seem to be splitting very nicely atm. First it looks like Greens will easy be the lefty choice. Then there are all these rumours of joy on the doorsteps for Labour canvassers, so Labour look like regaining the advantage. Then this betting rumour comes out. If I were a progressive I wouldn't know who to vote for.

    Reform are putting everything into this, but I do detect a struggle. It will be heroic if they pull it off.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,527
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worst possible result for Labour is a Green win.

    Nah - worst possible result for Labour is a Tory win. For then the world would have truly turned upside down....
    Green 40%
    Ref 35%
    Lab 10%
    Con 9.5%
    LD 4%
    Others buttons %

    'At least we beat the Tories'
    You think the Tories will get 9.5% in G+D?
    They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
    If Labour finished behind the Tories in this bye election Starmer would be gone the next day. But they won't. He has until May to improve things. At that point things are likely to get a bit tricky.
    How many careers will.have to be laid down for Starmer to survive?
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