The betting moves sharply to the Greens today in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com
The betting moves sharply to the Greens today in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com
I am not sure what has inspired this movement, in the past it usually a legitimate poll that triggers movements like this given how Reform and Labour have both fallen.
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https://x.com/FT/status/2021913057065160828?s=20
This doesn’t mean there won’t be impact. There will be. Routine drafting, compliance checking, basic advisory work — that’s absolutely under pressure.
But “fully automated” at professional scale, under real-world liability, in heavily regulated domains, inside 18 months?
That’s venture optimism leaking into public discourse.
If it happens, I’ll happily eat my keyboard.
Ssy Greens take this, perhaps handsomely. Then, in May, Reform struggle in Scotland perhaps coming third and come fourth in wards won or votes or both in London and behind Plaid in Wales.....
Potential for the bubble to burst?
Why would anyone vote Labour right now? What's the point,m
However. I suspect they'll do very well in the non City Metro boroughs.
I'm the one who looks like a slightly younger and more English Brad Pitt
If i were a multi national studbert
They'd need the Left to split correctly.
But never underestimate the Left's ability to do exactly that.
A left protest vote taking votes off centre left.
Come the GE when the fundamental choice is Reform or Labour Government where do you think Green votes will go.
Reform win in North West Is bad for Labour bad for Tories.
And they might get a bit undone by the 'thirds' and 'halves' up in some areas stopping them gettihg the 'gain' headlines of the full county elections last year.
An example is Suellas backyard of Fareham (half up) - Reform cant gain it but if the Tories hold 6 of the 16 up they retain msjority on the council (i think prediction is Tories hold 4 to 6 so......) and it generates its iwn negative feedback 'Reform fall short in Suellas back yard' etc
This, and a few other high-profile by-election gains for the Greens, gives them credibility and the lefty vote doesn't 'come home'. And we are fecked.
A Reform win is good for Labour in the sense that it galvanises the anti-Reform vote to vote for the party best placed to best them (i.e., us), and not risk letting them in as a result of a split opposition.
What that last video showed was just how far, how fast AI has come in such a short timeframe.
But if AI can make me look like a younger Brad Pitt from Liverpool, then I'd be impressed.
Ref 35%
Lab 10%
Con 9.5%
LD 4%
Others buttons %
'At least we beat the Tories'
Go on, you know you want to ...
9m people in London. 5.5m in Scotland. 3m in Wales.
Metro boroughs voting c. 11m.
When it comes to actual numbers it's the Metros which are the "big ticket".
Though I appreciate Wandsworth and Westminster will lead the news as ever.
Maybe though Labour is simply a leftish coalition against the Tories.
Both parties have huge issues. The Tories seem to have rather wonderfully found a bug repellent formula. When Labour do too, then normal politics can resume.
There will always be that element of fog in the channel, europe cut off
https://x.com/nickluck/status/2021979706430718092?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxAX6BiDKsvJfQ3vfE2DOind0UWKEQ3iNS
I fear a complacent "Reform can't win in Scotland, Wales or London therefore can't win a UK GE" narrative.
Which, like the Brexit vote will be wholly false.
Which is reassuring in a way, because it looks ridiculously difficult.
Several discussions about who will win which London boroughs.
Nowt AFAIK on the subject of who will win Birmingham. The size of three or four London boroughs.
- 'Britain: An official handbook' (published yearly 1954-1998),
- 'Britain: The official yearbook of the United Kingdom' (published yearly 1999-2001), and
- 'UK: The official yearbook of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland' (published yearly 2002-2005).
https://digital.nls.uk/britain-and-uk-handbooks/archive/207357489Snow for Friday and Sunday instead.
‘Compelling grounds’ to believe Letby is innocent, former head of Irish maternity unit claims
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/825006e7ab305146
Gift link so no paywall.
Reform, on the other hand, could well be seen as capable of winning so it will be much harder for the Tories to convince voters that voting Reform is a "wasted vote"
Unless the right gets strongly behind either the Tories or Reform I can easily see Labour winning again with about 34% of the vote.
They'll think themselves fortunate to get a fifth of that.
I'm not convinced Starmer did himself any favours having a pop at Jim Ratcliffe.
Larry 1 died aged 13 in 2020.
It was at the height of the first wave of Covid in the late Spring.
The fact no Pressspack were around enabled a search for a suitable replacement who was about 8 years old.
Larry V2 is now 13 to 14 years old. That's why he looks young for a 20 year old which Larry V1 would be.
There were frenzied conversations about the impact of announcing Larry had passed, rumours pets could get and pass Covid or equally Covid ame from cats.
The conspiracy theorists would have had a field day.
I'm told that if you know what you are looking for their are small differences.
I never said it is thrown together or anything like that, like ChatGPT you have hallucinated that.
However you said (previously) that payments were a good idea to prevent drop outs and I responded to say no, it is not, if people wish to drop out they should. They should not remain in the study due to financial payments.
It was 'Night Watch', not 'The Night Watch'.
And then the truth of a Royal Mail delivery strikes home. (apologies @BlancheLivermore , but there's no hiding)
They'll do well to save deposit
Reform are putting everything into this, but I do detect a struggle. It will be heroic if they pull it off.