A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
Chicken is about the environmentally friendly meat to eat too*. If it's free range then decent on welfare too. Whenever I go off a politician, I never get to enjoy it for long because there is always a PBer who goes so completely OTT that I end up defending them.
*Venison is vegan
The chances that a given chicken is decent on welfare is very very low. The chance that the chicken in a takeaway* is a £20 farmyard chicken that lived wandering about, scratching around like dear old Pinta** is pretty damn low.
* IIRC Starmer was that he said he ate a takeaway chicken dish after a campaign event because that's all there was. **The name for my wife's pet chicken on her family farm in Peru.
Big win for the nationalist rightwing PM in Japan's election today though
Again, it's not as much of a flex of fellow minded nationalists as you seem to be presenting when noting that the LDP have ruled Japan for all but like 6 years of the last 70. Clearly they vote for them consistently whatever is happening to left/right parties worldwide.
I believe Leon said he might apply to stand for Reform against Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras
I like Leon, but I think he would prove both a challenging candidate, and not exactly the reliable cog in the Reform machine that Nigel would want if he were to win.
Big win for the nationalist rightwing PM in Japan's election today though
Again, it's not as much of a flex of fellow minded nationalists as you seem to be presenting when noting that the LDP have ruled Japan for all but like 6 years of the last 70. Clearly they vote for them consistently whatever is happening to left/right parties worldwide.
Nonetheless the last Japanese general election produced a hung parliament, in this election the LDP have now won a landslide majority and 316 seats out of 465, a gain of 125 seats for the LDP
I was impressed with their fielding of candidates in the locals. The quality people may well have quibbles about, as with others, but organisationally it was a sign of increased interest and professionalisation.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
Big win for the nationalist rightwing PM in Japan's election today though
Again, it's not as much of a flex of fellow minded nationalists as you seem to be presenting when noting that the LDP have ruled Japan for all but like 6 years of the last 70. Clearly they vote for them consistently whatever is happening to left/right parties worldwide.
If the non-insane right, the Lib dems and the right hand side of the Labour party, in the UK merged, you'd get something like the LDP.
Which explains their electoral record - within the LDP, powers shifts left and right.
Big win for the nationalist rightwing PM in Japan's election today though
Again, it's not as much of a flex of fellow minded nationalists as you seem to be presenting when noting that the LDP have ruled Japan for all but like 6 years of the last 70. Clearly they vote for them consistently whatever is happening to left/right parties worldwide.
Nonetheless the last Japanese general election produced a hung parliament, in this election the LDP have now won a landslide majority and 316 seats out of 465, a gain of 125 seats for the LDP
A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
Chicken is about the environmentally friendly meat to eat too*. If it's free range then decent on welfare too. Whenever I go off a politician, I never get to enjoy it for long because there is always a PBer who goes so completely OTT that I end up defending them.
*Venison is vegan
The chance that the chicken in a takeaway* is a £20 farmyard chicken that lived wandering about, scratching around like dear old Pinta** is pretty damn low.
A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
Chicken is about the environmentally friendly meat to eat too*. If it's free range then decent on welfare too. Whenever I go off a politician, I never get to enjoy it for long because there is always a PBer who goes so completely OTT that I end up defending them.
*Venison is vegan
The chance that the chicken in a takeaway* is a £20 farmyard chicken that lived wandering about, scratching around like dear old Pinta** is pretty damn low.
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
Emerging is the question of where Mandleson got the balance of £4 million needed to buy his Regents Park house.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
The Tories never win London now, it is the NEV UK wide that counts.
In any case gaining Barnet and Westminster doesn't mean a huge amount London wide if Bexley, Bromley and Hillingdon are also lost
Big win for the nationalist rightwing PM in Japan's election today though
Again, it's not as much of a flex of fellow minded nationalists as you seem to be presenting when noting that the LDP have ruled Japan for all but like 6 years of the last 70. Clearly they vote for them consistently whatever is happening to left/right parties worldwide.
If the non-insane right, the Lib dems and the right hand side of the Labour party, in the UK merged, you'd get something like the LDP.
Which explains their electoral record - within the LDP, powers shifts left and right.
Indeed, I don't doubt when they shift factions it can make quite a difference, but it requires a more nuanced point to be made (I don't know, for example, what faction the previous LDP leader was eg the same or different to the current one).
Once upon a time, Ian and Roald were besties. Ian wrote a book about his car, his friend turned it into a magical film. Ian wrote a set of books about a debonair British spy, inspired and based on his friends career being that debonair British spy.
Who has spies? Everybody. Where does everybody base them? In their Embassies. It’s a law universally acknowledged, Embassy and Spies go together like strawberries and champagne at the wining and dining.
Roald, recovering from his war wounds, was playing tennis with people in or close to the US Administration, and was feeding back exactly what their state of mind was. Yes. USA is at war with UK. At same time as UK was at war with France in the forties - and our history books in school classrooms still teach that France and USA were our allies. If anything, our war with US intensified in the later forties and throughout the fifties.
Jeffrey virtually had a key to Buckingham Palace, and the UK Business Secretary actually leaking straight to him out of UK cabinet meetings. He had so many influential Americans, politicians, captains of industry groomed and in his pocket, but he also had links to Israel, and Moscow.
As head of any of those four countries Security Agencies, of course you want to know what the fuck is going on. Whose side is he on? Is he gathering information assets? Without doubt! Then what is he doing with these? Just like Roald in the forties - who can match those special characteristics to be our Perfect Spy on the inside? We badly need to recruit someone inside this game, because we need answers.
So when Starmer nasally nails Kemi across the dispatch box in triumph “you placed the amendment, we relented for the enquiry, you now have your answer, there was nothing the Security Services provided that told me not to appoint Peter as US Ambassador. The Security Services let me down.” I’m saying we don’t have to believe our Security Services held nothing, and didn’t know what was really going on, and didn’t think to want to know. Thanks to my insightful understanding of how these things work, we now know better.
All we need to believe, is that there is always a lot more beneath every story. So that’s both Chagos and the massive Mandelson Scandal, I sussed out and solved for you. I will now have an early night, and sort all the sheep out in the morning.
Rayner is seen as the frontrunner but Labour figures predict a free-for-all, tipping at least six others to go for the job, from Miliband to Shabana Mahmood and Yvette Cooper. It says it all that Al Carns is on runners and riders lists.
Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · 23m 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Time for a May-esque 'Nothing has changed' speech, those always settled things down.
Seriously though, whilst bad leaders do need to be got rid of, parties ditching leaders after only a couple of years is getting to be a bit common. A sign of selecting really bad leaders, a lack of political will at the top which has negative consequences for us all, or both.
Several suggested John Healey should take over. One pitched him as the only sane person left in the Labour Party and the only one with any international credibility.
Rayner is seen as the frontrunner but Labour figures predict a free-for-all, tipping at least six others to go for the job, from Miliband to Shabana Mahmood and Yvette Cooper. It says it all that Al Carns is on runners and riders lists.
Starmer has to resign first, though I suspect Farage would love facing any of those even more than Starmer and Labour members would never elect Mahmood
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
The Sunday Times reported this morning that Jonathan Powell specifically said 'don't appoint Mandelson'.
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · 23m 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Last time he did this it was to announce a new safety collar for Larry the Cat, before anyone gets excited.
Larry was appointed chief mouser at Downing St, and has served 15 years, and was apparently four when appointed. Pretty impressive sevice for the modern era.
I put it down to a healthy supply of vermin that keeps brain and stomach occupied.
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
So most likely Starmer just announces a new ethics cttee
Keir Starmer, 2020: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."
In the technical lawyerly world Starmer lives in his chief of staff chose to resign of his own volition so he's not a hypocrite. He's also delusional. I'd be quite glad if he sticks around, wounded for another year or so and utterly trashes Labour until they're in single figures.
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
So most likely Starmer just announces a new ethics cttee
Referendum on joining the EU. You heard it here first
Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · 23m 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Time for a May-esque 'Nothing has changed' speech, those always settled things down.
Seriously though, whilst bad leaders do need to be got rid of, parties ditching leaders after only a couple of years is getting to be a bit common. A sign of selecting really bad leaders, a lack of political will at the top which has negative consequences for us all, or both.
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
#PodiumWatch
Vyacheslav Molotov: I've always been loyal to Stalin, always. This arrests were authorized by Stalin but Stalin was also loyal to the collective leadership and that is true loyalty. However, he also had an iron will, undeviating, strong, could we not do the same and stick to what we believed in? No. It is stronger still to forge our own beliefs within the beliefs of the collective leadership, which I have now... done
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
In real political news, the Newham Independents have leafletted my small corner of the Borough.
I confess to some surprise as this wouldn't be on my list of their targets but clearly they have plenty of money and resources available.
I can see them winning 15 seats easily and 23 at a pinch but beyond that they will need to win Wards with smaller Muslim communities (numerically, not necessarily physically). The Greens will hold Stratford but will need to win two or three other Wards to deprive Labour of a majority on the council.
It's remarkable that anyone in Newham should yearn for independence after the abject failure of Pimlico in 1949.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
In real political news, the Newham Independents have leafletted my small corner of the Borough.
I confess to some surprise as this wouldn't be on my list of their targets but clearly they have plenty of money and resources available.
I can see them winning 15 seats easily and 23 at a pinch but beyond that they will need to win Wards with smaller Muslim communities (numerically, not necessarily physically). The Greens will hold Stratford but will need to win two or three other Wards to deprive Labour of a majority on the council.
It's remarkable that anyone in Newham should yearn for independence after the abject failure of Pimlico in 1949.
Apparently inspired by this charming bit of legal trickery I had never heard of.
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
Dug in? He’ll be like @HYUFD on the roundabout in Lithuania….
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
Labour's John Major.
Major ran a rather more competent government than this one
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
Barking and Dagenham could also likely go Reform, maybe Hillingdon as well
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
Labour's John Major.
John Major resigned and challenged his critics to put up or shut up.
A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
That's so typical of the sort of defence that Starmer needs
Is it?
There are many reasons to get at Starmer, but him agreeing to be vegetarian at home in support of his wife, similarly Friday Night Dinner, are not amongst them.
It's a swerving defence, and he ends up pissing off the vegetarians who he initially wanted to impress
It's a Starmerclass Masterclass
Google AI says he is a pescatarian. And that his wife is the strict veggie.
Pescatarians don’t eat chicken curry do they?
"I'd 've got away with eating chicken curry - if it weren't for you pesky tarians..."
Keir Starmer, 2020: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."
In the technical lawyerly world Starmer lives in his chief of staff chose to resign of his own volition so he's not a hypocrite. He's also delusional. I'd be quite glad if he sticks around, wounded for another year or so and utterly trashes Labour until they're in single figures.
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
Emerging is the question of where Mandleson got the balance of £4 million needed to buy his Regents Park house.
You give up the morning latte and avocado toast for lunch and you can soon save that much.
I believe Leon said he might apply to stand for Reform against Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras
I like Leon, but I think he would prove both a challenging candidate, and not exactly the reliable cog in the Reform machine that Nigel would want if he were to win.
Tomorrow I will go to DOJ to view the unredacted Epstein files.
Which docs should I view? Include EFTA link in reply
I will sort the replies to this post by “number of likes,” so instead of making redundant posts, please “like” replies that contain docs you think are important.
I believe Leon said he might apply to stand for Reform against Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras
I like Leon, but I think he would prove both a challenging candidate, and not exactly the reliable cog in the Reform machine that Nigel would want if he were to win.
Reform have backed him (as I suspect would any Roman Catholic priests in the constituency)
'A Reform spokesperson said Goodwin’s remarks are party policy, claiming that this was Labour being “disingenuous once again”.
He added: “This is an idea that was first suggested by the respected demographer Paul Moreland as part of a range of measures that should be debated and discussed across developed nations if we are serious about dealing with our looming demography crisis.
“The Labour government has got its head in the sand when it comes to thinking about the long-term challenges facing Britain. We need a grown up, mature debate about how we can encourage people to have more children and support British families.”
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
Barking and Dagenham could also likely go Reform, maybe Hillingdon as well
Doesn't the ethnic mix in B+D make it hard for Reform to win now? The BNP-quake was 20 years ago.
As for Havering, a lot depends on how the various Residents Association groups hold up. Labour are probably stuffed (though FPTP can do crazy things with four or more parties). Romford Conservatives seem to be hanging together, rather than joining Rosindell in Reform, but must mostly be very vulnerable. That's almost, but not quite, a winning map for the Turquoise Terror.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
People here in London are furious with Labour, but haven’t forgiven the Tories. Reform will do well in some places, but not inner London. Someone has to win those seats. I think the LibDems will do well and the Greens might do spectacularly. I think there’s gonna be a whole lot of surprised paper candidates!
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
Barking and Dagenham could also likely go Reform, maybe Hillingdon as well
Not much sign of a Reform surge in Barking at the one by election in July 2025 (they came third) - certainly no indication they'd take the council. I'm doubtful on Hillingdon, I think Tory hold, Reform might take it to NoC though. They did pretty well in Uxbridge in 2024 but nothing special in Hayes or Ruislip
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
People here in London are furious with Labour, but haven’t forgiven the Tories. Reform will do well in some places, but not inner London. Someone has to win those seats. I think the LibDems will do well and the Greens might do spectacularly. I think there’s gonna be a whole lot of surprised paper candidates!
Indeed! Although from a Tory perspective they were already at pretty low tide in London in 2022, they won't be losing as much in London as outside where they were in the 30s NEV in 2022 Reform look set to do better in East and NE London, the Tories should hold up ok in N, NW and wealthy central London (as by elections have suggested), the Lib Dems will storm SW London. God knows what happens to Labour
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
Barking and Dagenham could also likely go Reform, maybe Hillingdon as well
Not much sign of a Reform surge in Barking at the one by election in July 2025 (they came third) - certainly no indication they'd take the council. I'm doubtful on Hillingdon, I think Tory hold, Reform might take it to NoC though. They did pretty well in Uxbridge in 2024 but nothing special in Hayes or Ruislip
Reform got 24% in Dagenham and Rainham at the 2024 GE, 10% higher than their national voteshare. If they sweep Dagenham they likely take control, even if ethnic minority heavy wards in Barking still reject them.
In Hillingdon yes Reform if they sweep Uxbridge could also take control
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
A good summary. And my point (apols for labouring it) is that it's (1) which has boosted the story to its current Profumo level. (2) was not enough to do it. (2) was essentially the previous scandal which led to him being fired as ambassador. There's some new sleazy comms and a yuck photo but no quantum leap on the 'friendship' angle. The new angle is the treachery. That's why we are where we are on this.
Hasn't it been obvious from the start? He will have to be forced out, he won't resign. Under Labour rules it is going to be very difficult to remove him.
Labour's John Major.
John Major resigned and challenged his critics to put up or shut up.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
People here in London are furious with Labour, but haven’t forgiven the Tories. Reform will do well in some places, but not inner London. Someone has to win those seats. I think the LibDems will do well and the Greens might do spectacularly. I think there’s gonna be a whole lot of surprised paper candidates!
Indeed! Although from a Tory perspective they were already at pretty low tide in London in 2022, they won't be losing as much in London as outside where they were in the 30s NEV in 2022 Reform look set to do better in East and NE London, the Tories should hold up ok in N, NW and wealthy central London (as by elections have suggested), the Lib Dems will storm SW London. God knows what happens to Labour
Labour likely still win most Labour councils, even if some losses
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
People here in London are furious with Labour, but haven’t forgiven the Tories. Reform will do well in some places, but not inner London. Someone has to win those seats. I think the LibDems will do well and the Greens might do spectacularly. I think there’s gonna be a whole lot of surprised paper candidates!
Indeed! Although from a Tory perspective they were already at pretty low tide in London in 2022, they won't be losing as much in London as outside where they were in the 30s NEV in 2022 Reform look set to do better in East and NE London, the Tories should hold up ok in N, NW and wealthy central London (as by elections have suggested), the Lib Dems will storm SW London. God knows what happens to Labour
It may come down to areas of local strength but at a much finer level than that. LibDems will do well in west Camden, for instance. The Greens will do well in my ward in Camden. I think areas where parties have been putting the work in or have a well-known councillor will matter.
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
Barking and Dagenham could also likely go Reform, maybe Hillingdon as well
Not much sign of a Reform surge in Barking at the one by election in July 2025 (they came third) - certainly no indication they'd take the council. I'm doubtful on Hillingdon, I think Tory hold, Reform might take it to NoC though. They did pretty well in Uxbridge in 2024 but nothing special in Hayes or Ruislip
Reform got 24% in Dagenham and Rainham at the 2024 GE, 10% higher than their national voteshare. If they sweep Dagenham they likely take control, even if ethnic minority heavy wards in Barking still reject them.
In Hillingdon yes Reform if they sweep Uxbridge could also take control
There is no reason to assume Reform will sweep Uxbridge though
Tory HQ is rejoicing. They think Labour will not recover from Starmer’s downfall, that whoever comes next will bring chaos and that the public won’t forgive them. They now see a route back to government in one term, a thought that would have been ridiculous only a few weeks ago.
If the Tories were leading the latest polls they might have a point...but they are third!!!
I agree with you here HYUFD. The Tories arent winning a GE as things stand. A total Labour implosion might save their status as a triple figure seat opposition though. A very immediate GE might be entertaining chaos though. Reform havent even started candidate selection and have no policy documents worked up. The Tories are probably in slightly better shape to jump into an immediate battle (but hardly 'prepared'!)
Who is going to topple Kemi? Not Jenrick now.
That leaves Cleverly. If Cleverly says he is fully behind Kemi, she stays in place.
No she doesn't, unlike Labour Tory MPs can have a Vote of No Confidence in their leader to remove them, whereas Labour MPs can only nominate one of their own to launch a leadership challenge to the leader.
Michael Howard even voted to keep IDS when he lost the 2003 VONC in him but Howard still replaced IDS as leader unopposed
Not Jenrick, not Cleverly - so who is going to topple Kemi?
Name names.
Those names have to be somebody who will perform better than Kemi.
It needs less than 20 Tory MPs to send letters demanding a VONC in Kemi to Bob Blackman and the 1922 cttee.
If the Tories are third on NEV and seats after the May local and devolved elections those letters will go in, a VONC will be held and Kemi will likely be gone. Cleverly would then become leader by coronation
I'm afraid you're wrong.
The threshold has been increased to 1/3 of Con MPs - ie 39 letters now required out of 116 Con MPs.
Well even then given 65% of Conservative MPs did not vote for Kemi even in the final MP round in the Tory leadership election of 2024, if the Tories come 3rd in May that threshold will easily be reached
The issue for all parties as always is expectation management.
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
My current Tory London assumption is net loss 50, councils from net minus one to net plus one
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party) Gain very likely - Westminster Gain quite likely - Barnet Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Moving on to Reform, i think they will have a relatively bad night in the capital coming 3rd or even 4th in the popular vote and gaining 2 councils - Bexley and Havering. I think they will have a large number of near misses but rack up a respectable councillor total
People here in London are furious with Labour, but haven’t forgiven the Tories. Reform will do well in some places, but not inner London. Someone has to win those seats. I think the LibDems will do well and the Greens might do spectacularly. I think there’s gonna be a whole lot of surprised paper candidates!
Indeed! Although from a Tory perspective they were already at pretty low tide in London in 2022, they won't be losing as much in London as outside where they were in the 30s NEV in 2022 Reform look set to do better in East and NE London, the Tories should hold up ok in N, NW and wealthy central London (as by elections have suggested), the Lib Dems will storm SW London. God knows what happens to Labour
It may come down to areas of local strength but at a much finer level than that. LibDems will do well in west Camden, for instance. The Greens will do well in my ward in Camden. I think areas where parties have been putting the work in or have a well-known councillor will matter.
Yeah, I accept that. My snoopering tells me the Tories are putting a lot of effort in to Enfield and they are very confident of taking Westminster back
"Against a corrupt, exhausted, unlucky Government, which under-estimated the threat from Reform, trying for its fifth General Election in a row, Morgan McSweeney delivered 33.7% of the vote. And he then made Starmer the most unpopular PM ever. That's the measure of the man's 'genius'."
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
Emerging is the question of where Mandleson got the balance of £4 million needed to buy his Regents Park house.
You give up the morning latte and avocado toast for lunch and you can soon save that much.
"He appointed Mandelson to the top job in British diplomacy knowing full well that Mandelson remained friends with a CONVICTED child rapist. "
Well now. Let me introduce you to Baron Doyle of Great Barcors, formerly Matthew Doyle, Labour Party Director of Communications from 2021 onwards then Downing Street Director of Communications until March 2025 and appointed a Labour peer in December 2025.
He was a friend of Scottish Labour councillor, Sean Morton. In 2016 he was charged with the possession and distribution of indecent images of children. He was dropped as a Labour councillor and stood as an independent and Matthew Doyle, a Labour Party member, campaigned for him. Isn't this a hanging offence in Labour, campaigning for anyone other than Labour? Never mind.
Sean Morton was subsequently convicted of other child sex abuse image charges and jailed last year. Labour has been very unclear whether Doyle maintained his friendship with Morton after his 2017 conviction. Some sort of vetting investigation has been carried out but Labour refuses to reveal what it says.
Labour MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy is another one who had a friendship with this sex offender, which continued after his conviction. As a result has said she won't be seeking re-election to Holyrood.
If appointing a friend of a convicted sex offender as ambassador is wrong, why is it ok to appoint such a person to the Lords as a legislator? And if Doyle cut his ties with Morton years ago the moment he was convicted, why doesn't Labour say so clearly?
I usually agree with you.
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
A good summary. And my point (apols for labouring it) is that it's (1) which has boosted the story to its current Profumo level. (2) was not enough to do it. (2) was essentially the previous scandal which led to him being fired as ambassador. There's some new sleazy comms and a yuck photo but no quantum leap on the 'friendship' angle. The new angle is the treachery. That's why we are where we are on this.
No - it’s both fronts. Young people (like my daughters) have picked up on CubAm. To them, the selling secrets stuff is just side sleeze.
A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
That's so typical of the sort of defence that Starmer needs
Is it?
There are many reasons to get at Starmer, but him agreeing to be vegetarian at home in support of his wife, similarly Friday Night Dinner, are not amongst them.
Eating vegetables doesn’t make you a “vegetarian at home”. It makes you an omnivore who eats vegetables at home.
"He appointed Mandelson to the top job in British diplomacy knowing full well that Mandelson remained friends with a CONVICTED child rapist. "
Well now. Let me introduce you to Baron Doyle of Great Barcors, formerly Matthew Doyle, Labour Party Director of Communications from 2021 onwards then Downing Street Director of Communications until March 2025 and appointed a Labour peer in December 2025.
He was a friend of Scottish Labour councillor, Sean Morton. In 2016 he was charged with the possession and distribution of indecent images of children. He was dropped as a Labour councillor and stood as an independent and Matthew Doyle, a Labour Party member, campaigned for him. Isn't this a hanging offence in Labour, campaigning for anyone other than Labour? Never mind.
Sean Morton was subsequently convicted of other child sex abuse image charges and jailed last year. Labour has been very unclear whether Doyle maintained his friendship with Morton after his 2017 conviction. Some sort of vetting investigation has been carried out but Labour refuses to reveal what it says.
Labour MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy is another one who had a friendship with this sex offender, which continued after his conviction. As a result has said she won't be seeking re-election to Holyrood.
If appointing a friend of a convicted sex offender as ambassador is wrong, why is it ok to appoint such a person to the Lords as a legislator? And if Doyle cut his ties with Morton years ago the moment he was convicted, why doesn't Labour say so clearly?
I usually agree with you.
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
Chemical castration and lengthy jail sentences might though.
"He appointed Mandelson to the top job in British diplomacy knowing full well that Mandelson remained friends with a CONVICTED child rapist. "
Well now. Let me introduce you to Baron Doyle of Great Barcors, formerly Matthew Doyle, Labour Party Director of Communications from 2021 onwards then Downing Street Director of Communications until March 2025 and appointed a Labour peer in December 2025.
He was a friend of Scottish Labour councillor, Sean Morton. In 2016 he was charged with the possession and distribution of indecent images of children. He was dropped as a Labour councillor and stood as an independent and Matthew Doyle, a Labour Party member, campaigned for him. Isn't this a hanging offence in Labour, campaigning for anyone other than Labour? Never mind.
Sean Morton was subsequently convicted of other child sex abuse image charges and jailed last year. Labour has been very unclear whether Doyle maintained his friendship with Morton after his 2017 conviction. Some sort of vetting investigation has been carried out but Labour refuses to reveal what it says.
Labour MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy is another one who had a friendship with this sex offender, which continued after his conviction. As a result has said she won't be seeking re-election to Holyrood.
If appointing a friend of a convicted sex offender as ambassador is wrong, why is it ok to appoint such a person to the Lords as a legislator? And if Doyle cut his ties with Morton years ago the moment he was convicted, why doesn't Labour say so clearly?
I usually agree with you.
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
We can show forgiveness to offenders who have served their time, but that doesn’t mean that politicians should be palling around with them.
In real political news, the Newham Independents have leafletted my small corner of the Borough.
I confess to some surprise as this wouldn't be on my list of their targets but clearly they have plenty of money and resources available.
I can see them winning 15 seats easily and 23 at a pinch but beyond that they will need to win Wards with smaller Muslim communities (numerically, not necessarily physically). The Greens will hold Stratford but will need to win two or three other Wards to deprive Labour of a majority on the council.
It's remarkable that anyone in Newham should yearn for independence after the abject failure of Pimlico in 1949.
"He appointed Mandelson to the top job in British diplomacy knowing full well that Mandelson remained friends with a CONVICTED child rapist. "
Well now. Let me introduce you to Baron Doyle of Great Barcors, formerly Matthew Doyle, Labour Party Director of Communications from 2021 onwards then Downing Street Director of Communications until March 2025 and appointed a Labour peer in December 2025.
He was a friend of Scottish Labour councillor, Sean Morton. In 2016 he was charged with the possession and distribution of indecent images of children. He was dropped as a Labour councillor and stood as an independent and Matthew Doyle, a Labour Party member, campaigned for him. Isn't this a hanging offence in Labour, campaigning for anyone other than Labour? Never mind.
Sean Morton was subsequently convicted of other child sex abuse image charges and jailed last year. Labour has been very unclear whether Doyle maintained his friendship with Morton after his 2017 conviction. Some sort of vetting investigation has been carried out but Labour refuses to reveal what it says.
Labour MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy is another one who had a friendship with this sex offender, which continued after his conviction. As a result has said she won't be seeking re-election to Holyrood.
If appointing a friend of a convicted sex offender as ambassador is wrong, why is it ok to appoint such a person to the Lords as a legislator? And if Doyle cut his ties with Morton years ago the moment he was convicted, why doesn't Labour say so clearly?
I usually agree with you.
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
Chemical castration and lengthy jail sentences might though.
Jail sentences are fine. Deprivation of liberty is a reasonable punishment. But I would be wary of casually giving the state the right to injure citizens
"Against a corrupt, exhausted, unlucky Government, which under-estimated the threat from Reform, trying for its fifth General Election in a row, Morgan McSweeney delivered 33.7% of the vote. And he then made Starmer the most unpopular PM ever. That's the measure of the man's 'genius'."
"He appointed Mandelson to the top job in British diplomacy knowing full well that Mandelson remained friends with a CONVICTED child rapist. "
Well now. Let me introduce you to Baron Doyle of Great Barcors, formerly Matthew Doyle, Labour Party Director of Communications from 2021 onwards then Downing Street Director of Communications until March 2025 and appointed a Labour peer in December 2025.
He was a friend of Scottish Labour councillor, Sean Morton. In 2016 he was charged with the possession and distribution of indecent images of children. He was dropped as a Labour councillor and stood as an independent and Matthew Doyle, a Labour Party member, campaigned for him. Isn't this a hanging offence in Labour, campaigning for anyone other than Labour? Never mind.
Sean Morton was subsequently convicted of other child sex abuse image charges and jailed last year. Labour has been very unclear whether Doyle maintained his friendship with Morton after his 2017 conviction. Some sort of vetting investigation has been carried out but Labour refuses to reveal what it says.
Labour MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy is another one who had a friendship with this sex offender, which continued after his conviction. As a result has said she won't be seeking re-election to Holyrood.
If appointing a friend of a convicted sex offender as ambassador is wrong, why is it ok to appoint such a person to the Lords as a legislator? And if Doyle cut his ties with Morton years ago the moment he was convicted, why doesn't Labour say so clearly?
I usually agree with you.
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
You are missing my point. If Mandelson was unsuitable to be ambassador because of his friendship with a convicted sex offender, why is Doyle suitable to be a U.K. legislator?
The first was bad judgment by Starmer. Very well. Then so is the second. Unless the investigation has shown that Doyle did not remain friends after the conviction.
Sex offenders will do pretty much anything to get access to victims. Giving them credibility by remaining friends with them risks undermining safeguarding precisely because people will assume that if a respectable person is their friend then the person is ok. It also sends out a message that these sorts of crimes are not really that serious.
"I had a mirthless laugh at the New Statesman’s cover this week, which characterised the Mandelson affair as “the scandal of the century”. Guys, it’s not even the biggest scandal of the scandal."
She's right (for once). There are hundreds of fairly poor , vulnerable girls who were sexually abused by this monster and his "friends". That is the scandal of Epstein, so much more serious than his corruption, his use of private information given to him by the likes of Mandelson. These girls were destroyed. Those that played a part in that really need to be held to account. Mandelson should be too, don't get me wrong, but the real victims remain invisible here.
Yes. This should be about the victims of Epstein's sexual abuse and trafficking but it isn't. Note how the Mandelson scandal has exploded to these levels only because of the 'info leaking' aspect. That is deemed more important.
I don't think that the lobbying and insider trading aspect is considered more important, it is more that it is the new issue.
The abuse and trafficking of girls and women has been known about for years.
Quite why there hasn't been a systematic investigation and series of interviews with these women is a question for the American authorities. While the Epstein files corroborate, and case against the perpatrators surely requires witnesses.
If the leaking aspect isn't deemed the more important how come we didn't get this level of political and pundit reaction with the previous revelations when Mandelson was sacked?
Maybe because it was, initially, just like Mandy's other resignations. First a story, then the denial, then the denial is shown to be a lie. He was sheltering behind "I'm gay, so I knew nothing" remember.
The depth of his lies and the extent of his betrayal were new. Police searching his homes is new. Talk of Misconduct in a Public office is new for Mandy.
It went from MandyScandal VXXXIII to something else.
Yes. The treacherous leaking has gone beyond 'close friendship with sexual abuser'. That's what I mean. That's what has tipped this over.
I think there are two parts -
1) The Treachery - to Labour PMs, The Labour Party, Progressives and the national interest. Everyone knew that Mandy hobnobbed wit the rich and shameless. The fact that he was realtiming economic intelligence to Epstein, including advice on how to strong arm his own government. That he was backstabbing Labour PMs as her was supposed to be serving them. That he was conspiring with Peter Fucking Thiel....
2) The Involvement - Mandy had sold everyone on "I hung out with Epstein because I was star struck. And I saw nothing, because I am gay". The reality - Desperate for a CubAm? And the pictures?
It's both parts that did for Mandy.
And it's the depth of that, that is grinding Starmer down. He should have checked - he's a former DPP and should have know that everyone lies. Especially proven serial liars.
A good summary. And my point (apols for labouring it) is that it's (1) which has boosted the story to its current Profumo level. (2) was not enough to do it. (2) was essentially the previous scandal which led to him being fired as ambassador. There's some new sleazy comms and a yuck photo but no quantum leap on the 'friendship' angle. The new angle is the treachery. That's why we are where we are on this.
No - it’s both fronts. Young people (like my daughters) have picked up on CubAm. To them, the selling secrets stuff is just side sleeze.
Of course it's both and different people will have different reactions as to what most concerns or disgusts them. But without the treachery reveal this probably wouldn't be bringing down SKS. Whereas without the additional latest sleaze info but with the treachery reveal it probably still would. This is the point I'm making.
A chicken eating vegetarian can’t be trusted? No way!
Isn't Starmer just vegetarian at home? by reason that his wife and children are vegetarian, but away from home he can be more flexible.
That's so typical of the sort of defence that Starmer needs
Is it?
There are many reasons to get at Starmer, but him agreeing to be vegetarian at home in support of his wife, similarly Friday Night Dinner, are not amongst them.
Eating vegetables doesn’t make you a “vegetarian at home”. It makes you an omnivore who eats vegetables at home.
Former Labour big hitter Bryan Gould’s memoirs from 1995, referencing events in the late 1980s. Mandelson was leaking and spinning against his own party colleagues even back then.
This report is the sort of stuff that gives me nightmares.
As long as the dashboard Wes sees shows waiting lists going down though. That's the important thing? 📉
It's not like there's some sort of McNamara fallacy being invoked. Right?
...
right?
I don't know what the McNamara fallacy is.
I do know this. NHS screening completely failed to pick up my cancer; rather it gave me false reassurance. Had it picked it up earlier, there was every chance I could have been cured. Now I can't. I can just be treated. It's Stage 4 and there is no Stage 5. There have already been delays in getting radiologist reports & I am dependant on these to determine the treatment plus whether the cyst on my pancreas becomes cancerous.
It is hard to feel remotely optimistic about any of this. Or to have faith in the NHS. Or in those running it.
All this started being discovered by chance precisely a year ago on my birthday. I have survived a year. Now I read this.
And I fear, I genuinely fear, that I will be offered not treatment but suicide to save money because bureaucrats somewhere will have decided that my life is not worth living or saving. Please don't come back at me with "choice" and "autonomy". The only choice I have is to hope & try to live the best I can despite everything - a choice imposed on me by the state's incompetence.
Comments
* IIRC Starmer was that he said he ate a takeaway chicken dish after a campaign event because that's all there was.
**The name for my wife's pet chicken on her family farm in Peru.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election
In London, what would represent a good, bad or ugly result for the Conservatives, LDs, Labour, Reform and the Greens?
Might be a thread header for someone down the line.
The Conservatives currently have 389 Councillors and control 6 Boroughs (including Croydon via the Mayor). I would argue they could easily finish up controlling just Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow outright of those they already hold and picking up Barnet and Westminster from Labour.
Net loss of councillors could be 25-75 mostly to Reform - would that be a satisfactory result or a disaster?
My early prediction is more Boroughs with no party having an overall majority than is currently the case.
Which explains their electoral record - within the LDP, powers shifts left and right.
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
·
23m
🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
And i could do an hilarious defection mid parliament
In any case gaining Barnet and Westminster doesn't mean a huge amount London wide if Bexley, Bromley and Hillingdon are also lost
Once upon a time, Ian and Roald were besties. Ian wrote a book about his car, his friend turned it into a magical film. Ian wrote a set of books about a debonair British spy, inspired and based on his friends career being that debonair British spy.
Who has spies? Everybody. Where does everybody base them? In their Embassies. It’s a law universally acknowledged, Embassy and Spies go together like strawberries and champagne at the wining and dining.
Roald, recovering from his war wounds, was playing tennis with people in or close to the US Administration, and was feeding back exactly what their state of mind was. Yes. USA is at war with UK. At same time as UK was at war with France in the forties - and our history books in school classrooms still teach that France and USA were our allies. If anything, our war with US intensified in the later forties and throughout the fifties.
Jeffrey virtually had a key to Buckingham Palace, and the UK Business Secretary actually leaking straight to him out of UK cabinet meetings. He had so many influential Americans, politicians, captains of industry groomed and in his pocket, but he also had links to Israel, and Moscow.
As head of any of those four countries Security Agencies, of course you want to know what the fuck is going on. Whose side is he on? Is he gathering information assets? Without doubt! Then what is he doing with these? Just like Roald in the forties - who can match those special characteristics to be our Perfect Spy on the inside? We badly need to recruit someone inside this game, because we need answers.
So when Starmer nasally nails Kemi across the dispatch box in triumph “you placed the amendment, we relented for the enquiry, you now have your answer, there was nothing the Security Services provided that told me not to appoint Peter as US Ambassador. The Security Services let me down.” I’m saying we don’t have to believe our Security Services held nothing, and didn’t know what was really going on, and didn’t think to want to know. Thanks to my insightful understanding of how these things work, we now know better.
All we need to believe, is that there is always a lot more beneath every story. So that’s both Chagos and the massive Mandelson Scandal, I sussed out and solved for you. I will now have an early night, and sort all the sheep out in the morning.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2020613849804673162
Seriously though, whilst bad leaders do need to be got rid of, parties ditching leaders after only a couple of years is getting to be a bit common. A sign of selecting really bad leaders, a lack of political will at the top which has negative consequences for us all, or both.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2020613849804673162
Go @TSE !!!!
Where we are tonight:
* Cabinet ministers believe the PM is weaker after McSweeney’s departure: “It’s his last card,” one said. “He can only do this once. He is so much weaker because he doesn’t have Morgan to bail him out any more.”
* Ministers are on edge tonight. They worry that Starmer could quit despite denials from No 10. “We’re asking the question of whether he will be there at the end of the week,” another minister said. “There’s a feeling he could stand down at any moment. The next 48 hours is going to be crucial.”
* Starmer expected to announce ethics overhaul tomorrow and to address the PLP in the evening. After so much lost trust it will be be a pivotal moment
* Allies of McSweeney suggest others who backed Mandelson should go after he was forced out. They highlight the role of Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer will address the nation tomorrow
Hold - Kensington, Harrow, Hillingdon, Croydon mayoralty
Lose - Bexley (to Ref) Bromley (to NoC, largest party)
Gain very likely - Westminster
Gain quite likely - Barnet
Gain other posdibilities if night goes better than expected - Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
Theyll get wiped out in quite a few places though
Someone is telling porkies.
Keir Starmer, 2020: "When they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff."
I put it down to a healthy supply of vermin that keeps brain and stomach occupied.
Vyacheslav Molotov: I've always been loyal to Stalin, always. This arrests were authorized by Stalin but Stalin was also loyal to the collective leadership and that is true loyalty. However, he also had an iron will, undeviating, strong, could we not do the same and stick to what we believed in? No. It is stronger still to forge our own beliefs within the beliefs of the collective leadership, which I have now... done
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterritoriality_of_Princess_Margriet's_birth
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2020629388732301766?s=20
All people planning to attend will have to supply 5 years Social Media history including E-mail addresses to receive an ESTA Visa...
https://x.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/2020551767511974367
Have you never heard of Chicken of the Sea?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vsjR2wVCzvw
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/reform-candidate-slammed-for-handmaids-tale-comment_uk_6985fd61e4b06f7f7bb91c85/
Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie
·
48m
Tomorrow I will go to DOJ to view the unredacted Epstein files.
Which docs should I view?
Include EFTA link in reply
I will sort the replies to this post by “number of likes,” so instead of making redundant posts, please “like” replies that contain docs you think are important.
https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/2020620474888474941
'A Reform spokesperson said Goodwin’s remarks are party policy, claiming that this was Labour being “disingenuous once again”.
He added: “This is an idea that was first suggested by the respected demographer Paul Moreland as part of a range of measures that should be debated and discussed across developed nations if we are serious about dealing with our looming demography crisis.
“The Labour government has got its head in the sand when it comes to thinking about the long-term challenges facing Britain. We need a grown up, mature debate about how we can encourage people to have more children and support British families.”
As for Havering, a lot depends on how the various Residents Association groups hold up. Labour are probably stuffed (though FPTP can do crazy things with four or more parties). Romford Conservatives seem to be hanging together, rather than joining Rosindell in Reform, but must mostly be very vulnerable. That's almost, but not quite, a winning map for the Turquoise Terror.
Although from a Tory perspective they were already at pretty low tide in London in 2022, they won't be losing as much in London as outside where they were in the 30s NEV in 2022
Reform look set to do better in East and NE London, the Tories should hold up ok in N, NW and wealthy central London (as by elections have suggested), the Lib Dems will storm SW London. God knows what happens to Labour
In Hillingdon yes Reform if they sweep Uxbridge could also take control
"Against a corrupt, exhausted, unlucky Government, which under-estimated the threat from Reform, trying for its fifth General Election in a row, Morgan McSweeney delivered 33.7% of the vote. And he then made Starmer the most unpopular PM ever. That's the measure of the man's 'genius'."
But it’s not clear to me that ostracism will make convicted pedophiles less likely to reoffend in future
Sunderland to finish above NUFC.
And EFC above LFC?
Would love to be on it.
The first was bad judgment by Starmer. Very well. Then so is the second. Unless the investigation has shown that Doyle did not remain friends after the conviction.
Sex offenders will do pretty much anything to get access to victims. Giving them credibility by remaining friends with them risks undermining safeguarding precisely because people will assume that if a respectable person is their friend then the person is ok. It also sends out a message that these sorts of crimes are not really that serious.
It's not like there's some sort of McNamara fallacy being invoked. Right?
...
right?
Former Labour big hitter Bryan Gould’s memoirs from 1995, referencing events in the late 1980s. Mandelson was leaking and spinning against his own party colleagues even back then.
I do know this. NHS screening completely failed to pick up my cancer; rather it gave me false reassurance. Had it picked it up earlier, there was every chance I could have been cured. Now I can't. I can just be treated. It's Stage 4 and there is no Stage 5. There have already been delays in getting radiologist reports & I am dependant on these to determine the treatment plus whether the cyst on my pancreas becomes cancerous.
It is hard to feel remotely optimistic about any of this. Or to have faith in the NHS. Or in those running it.
All this started being discovered by chance precisely a year ago on my birthday. I have survived a year. Now I read this.
And I fear, I genuinely fear, that I will be offered not treatment but suicide to save money because bureaucrats somewhere will have decided that my life is not worth living or saving. Please don't come back at me with "choice" and "autonomy". The only choice I have is to hope & try to live the best I can despite everything - a choice imposed on me by the state's incompetence.