PB Predictions Competition 2026 – The Entries! – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2026 – The Entries! – politicalbetting.com
Many thanks to all those who entered the PB Predictions Competition this year. I have tried to capture all the entries with the help of a PB database scan from TSE.
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Comments
One of Angela Rayner or Mark Carney to be UK PM on the 31st of December 2026.
They haven’t changed. They have a few decent MPs but most of them are still the metrosexual wankers that gave us the Boriswave and, actually, it was a jolly good thing
Plus they won’t have the cullions to withdraw from the ECHR
Personally I’d like a party well to the right of Reform, so a mix of Lee Kuan Yew, Gabriele d’Annunzio and mid season General Pinochet, but in the absence of that I will vote for Farage with a grimace of distaste
I was really annoyed you beat me last year @Benpointer
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/us/politics/epstein-clintons-maxwell.html
Jeffrey Epstein’s longtime companion, Ghislaine Maxwell, played a substantial role in supporting the creation of the Clinton Global Initiative, one of President Bill Clinton’s signature post-White House endeavors, new documents released by the Justice Department show.
Bonnie Blue says "Hold my beer!"
This myth is spread by quite a few die hard Remoaners who refused to accept the Brexit referendum result, but no Boris did not hollow out the party.
He did the exact same thing that Major did to pass Maastricht in making it a confidence matter and removing the whip from anyone who voted against, just as Major had done decades ago and many other Prime Ministers had done for many years, past and present (including the current incumbent).
The very small number of MPs who lost the whip did so voluntarily knowing the consequence, and at the subsequent election they were all much more than replaced by a big increase in numbers, not a reduction in them.
Definitely him a layer.
Most of Reform's MPs were Tory MPs anyway, indeed Jenrick was in the Truss and Sunak Cabinets, Braverman was Truss and Sunak's Home Secretary and Zahawi was Boris' Chancellor
Just-for-fun as I know its too late, this is what my entries would be for the #competition
Dem gains (House) 17
Dem gains (Senate) 2
SNP MSPs 59
PC AMs 34
Largest poll lead Ref 17 (unfortunately)
Lab projected net share 17
Reform MPs on 31/12/26 8
UK PM on 31/12/26 Starmer
Andy Burnham MP No
UK borrowing £144.5bn
UK GDP growth to Oct 2025 1.2%
World Cup winners Brazil
Yes, thank you for that, Stodge. I would go along with it all, especially the point about the bookies getting wise. Back in my professional betting days my profits split roughly equally between my two specialist subjects - National Hunt and politics. The latter gave a much higher rate of return, but of course lacked the regularity of the former. I used to refer to betting on politics as like shooting fish in a barrel. It's no longer like that. The other punters as well as the bookies have become smarter.
You are right also about the changes wrought by social media. It has however made the site all the more valuable. There is no other on which I can rely for intelligent and authentic debate. You and I have had the privilege of meeting, and whilst we may not agree on every matter, we can depend on an absence of bullshit. The same applies to most of those with whom we engage on here, whether we know them personally or not. This makes the site invaluable. Imposters get short shrift (like the laughable Lawson yesterday) and invariably sulk off to peddle their counterfeit wares elsewhere.
No, Starmer isn't going anywhere. And for what it's worth, I think that a World Cup under Trump is as likely to be as free and fair as an election under him. He wouldn't want a European side to win. The USA will do well, but simply aren't good enough to go the whole way. My money is on Argentina,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yk16gpxj0o
The email on 7 May 2002 states: "Do you remember when Clinton saw TB [Tony Blair] he said he wanted to introduce his travelling friend, Jeffrey Epstein, to TB?
"This was frustrated - TB said at the time - in the office for reasons (he says) he was unclear about. I think TB would be interested in meeting Jeffrey, who is also a friend of mine, because Jeffrey is an active scientific catalyst/entrepreneur as well as someone who has his finger on the pulse of many worldwide markets and currencies."
One guy like me didn’t drink because he didn’t want to make an arse of himself, he admitted his homosexuality to me and didn’t want to go to the gay bars because he was a virgin.
So I dragged him to a gay club and the rest is history.
This was the era the papers asked if we were run by a gay mafia.
If we follow the logic of what happened in the Tory Party:
Labour members will ultimately replace Starmer with their favourite Angela Rayner, much as Theresa was replaced by Boris.
She will fail to achieve anything as the strings will still be pulled by the Labour illuminati and the British deep state.
Labour MPs will tire of this and will eventually crown Wes Streeting, the Rishi Sunak, of the Labour Party - who is a creature of the system.
Nothing will change and Labour will be crushed in the 2029 election.
NB there is no Labour Liz Truss!
https://x.com/trussliz/status/2020476823524524196?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Skyr is now gravely exposed. Starmer must now be heavy odds on to go this year
Said Jeremy Thorpe in 1962.
Starmer appears to have given his full confidence at PMQs solely to wash his hands of this sacking and avoid any blowback.
This is a temporary human sacrifice that will last a few weeks or months and then the PM will climb the temple to be lain over the chac-mool
Reform are on 31%, Labour 23%, Conservatives 16%, Green 13%, LDs 10%.
Unless that changes it will be Kemi gone by the end of the summer, not Starmer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
"After careful reflection, I have decided to resign from the government.
"The decision to appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself.
"When asked, I advised the Prime Minister to make that appointment and I take full responsibility for that advice. In public life responsibility must be owned when it matters most, not just when it is most convenient. In the circumstances, the only honourable course is to step aside.
"This has not been an easy decision. Much has been written and said about me over the years but my motivations have always been simple: I have worked every day to elect and support a government that puts the lives of ordinary people first and leads us to a better future for our great country. Only a Labour government will do that. I leave with pride in all we have achieved mixed with regret at the circumstances of my departure. But I have always believed there are moments when you must accept your responsibility and step aside for the bigger cause.
"As I leave I have two further reflections:
"Firstly, and most importantly, we must remember the women and girls whose lives were ruined by Jeffrey Epstein and whose voices went unheard for far too long.
"Secondly, while I did not oversee the due diligence and vetting process, I believe that process must now be fundamentally overhauled. This cannot simply be a gesture but a safeguard for the future.
"I remain fully supportive of the Prime Minister. He is working every day to rebuild trust, restore standards and serve the country. I will continue to back that mission in whatever way I can. It has been the honour of my life to serve."
I doubt that it buys Starmer more than a bit of time, but maybe that's all he needs.
{tells the butler to get the chaps to warm up the trebuchet}
FFS Labour GET RID. It’s a no brainer, now
Liz was the greatest PM in British history, her brilliant premiership tragically cut short as the voters, the media, her own MPs and the globalist elite could not see or understand how great she was and the transformation she was making to our economy. Even the ignorant markets crashed themselves rather than properly studying how great and profitable for them her budget would be!!
“Majority of Labour MPs say when, not if”
Short of actually standing him next to the open window, and offering him polonium flavoured tea….
Kemi has a rival who polls better with swing voters than her who is also an MP and eligible to replace her, Cleverly, Starmer now doesn't. Starmer was a KC so clearly had some brain even if no charisma
That, of course, goes for Trump too.
But I don't expect him to be summoned to give evidence by the current Congress.
I believe you are right about Badenoch, she couldn't win a "buy it now" auction. I couldn't be happier if she stays. I would be far more concerned as a never-Tory by Hunt or Cleverly.
KEEP CALMER
and
OUST STARMER
But because of the vagaries of FPTP, I calculate that this would leave the Tories in sixth place with 39 seats behind Reform, LDs, Lab, Green, SNP, Con in that order.
McSweeney was clueless and good riddance to him .
SKS & McSweeney deserve each other
I don't really care what McSweeney himself has to say about the system, but it's been common currency for some time that vetting procedures are inadequate.
The appointment was a mistake, obviously. But it was one both applauded and condemned on both sides if the political divide.
The world heard JD Vance being booed at the Olympics. Except for viewers in the US
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/feb/07/jd-vance-boos-winter-olympics
...When Team USA entered the San Siro during the parade of nations, the speed skater Erin Jackson led the delegation into a wall of cheers. Moments later, when cameras cut to US vice-president JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance, large sections of the crowd responded with boos. Not subtle ones, but audible and sustained ones. Canadian viewers heard them. Journalists seated in the press tribunes in the upper deck, myself included, clearly heard them. But as I quickly realized from a groupchat with friends back home, American viewers watching NBC did not...
What a tragedy for the country. Starmer is freakishly bad at the politics thing, yet there is nobody in Labour, nor anywhere else, likely to do a better job.
The issue is deeply structural, and the bond traders wait, licking their paws.
Waiting for news from the bunker from brixhiam59
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkWLDy94FYg
Investigation into the performance of UK Security Vetting
https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/investigation-into-the-performance-of-uk-security-vetting/
But there's plenty other criticism of how lax we are in taking vetting seriously for many appointments where we should.
Met Police vetting:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-03-23/debates/5000BC61-1A0A-4897-8159-614FAAF94A33/DanielMorganIndependentPanelReport
The problem(s) of House of Lords appointments
https://constitution-unit.com/2022/11/17/the-problems-of-house-of-lords-appointments/
More generally
https://www.ukanticorruptioncoalition.org/political-integrity
What more could they have done? The PM has final authority and they can't overrule him. Maybe you think they should but that puts more power into the hands of unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats. At least when the PM makes a bad decision we have the power to kick him out, how do we do that for civil servant who continually makes poor decisions?