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Could a Healey or Benn finally lead Labour? – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,811
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,611
    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    Penny
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is remarkable how one man has been able to infiltrate the labour party over decades with an influence that borders on insanity

    It happens in politics, look at Jeffrey Archer, had a strong influence on three consecutive Tory leaders over a quarter of a century despite everybody knowing he was dodgy as hell.
    Indeed

    Many years ago I had to host Archer at an event on behalf of the organisations President and he was an engaging person

    This before his fall in grace but he had energy and personality
    He was also a bestselling novelist and athlete
    Frankly, being in politics seems to have been a complete waste and distraction for him given his success as a novelist.
    Indeed, Archer is worth nearly £200 million, he is probably richer than most Tory MPs combined and certainly richer than most Tory PMs were.

    He was briefly an MP but politics for him is mainly a hobby, though he did have a shot at London Mayor in 2000 but the scandal that ultimately landed him in prison ended that.

    He is rather like Toad of Toad Hall, an energetic and charismatic figure but too prone to risk taking and somewhat arrogant to ever get to the very top politically
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
    The Liberal Democraitc Party of Japan won re-election? I am stunned!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,611

    malcolmg said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    I'd argue that Starmer knew something about Mandelson and Epstein but felt that, in the circumstances, Mandelson's possible relationship with Trump 'trumped' it.
    As argued persuasively by others on pb over the past few says.
    Old saying OKC, if you lie with dog's you catch fleas. Starmer proves again he is tin eared and has no clue on judgement and consequences, his arrogance has him hoist by his own petard.
    Agree that Starmer's judgement in this case proved faulty, but if Mandelson has been less of a nasty piece of work, sex-wise, it might well turned out differently.
    Previous evidence suggests otherwise, just a matter of time until he did something dodgy or exposed as having done something dodgy. But nobody was quite expecting this. Its like putting Boris in charge of any organisation and being shocked he has been bonking the secretary...again.
    Mandelson had multiple previous. The PM should, if he really wanted to appointment him, have had him deep vetted.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,811
    Brixian59 said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    Penny
    Not actually an MP?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,703
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
    The Liberal Democraitc Party of Japan won re-election? I am stunned!
    LibDems winning there!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    edited 12:39PM
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    Cleverly was Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary and is more likely to hold the 2024 Sunak vote and win Labour and LD tactical voters to beat Reform in Tory held seats than Kemi has proved she can. It is thanks to the tighter visa wage controls Cleverly brought in as Home Secretary net immigration is now falling too,

    Kemi wouild have been a good Tory Party chairman and she has done some good work on policy and restoring the party finances, she was over promoted as LOTO. Basically she is a 2026 IDS to Cleverly's Michael Howard and Jenrick's David Davis (except now in Reform of course)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories not being in with a shout of winning the next election would not have been that terrible after a landslide loss, that's kind of expected even. But with Labour hemorrhaging support in various directions someone had to do better in the meantime, and that really hurts the brand as the natural party of government, since they are not even in the conversation and probably won't be until post 2029, which may be too late.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
    Would you ever go Reform? In what circs if so? Genuinely curious
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    I'd argue that Starmer knew something about Mandelson and Epstein but felt that, in the circumstances, Mandelson's possible relationship with Trump 'trumped' it.
    As argued persuasively by others on pb over the past few says.
    Including me.

    Undoubtedly that was the plan

    As I said a few days ago, the big missing was an exit plan.

    One the deals were done they could have announced it was a temporary appointment 6 months and out.

    They'd be sitting high and dry now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,308
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    Leon, not long back from the sin bin writes a genuinely smile inducing post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
    The Liberal Democraitc Party of Japan won re-election? I am stunned!
    Except Takaichi is closer to Farage and Badenoch policy wise than Davey and is basically a Japanese nationalist, indeed even Trump endorsed her
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,660
    Nepal lose the two batsmen who were making a difference. England's to lose now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
    The Liberal Democraitc Party of Japan won re-election? I am stunned!
    Except Takaichi is closer to Farage and Badenoch policy wise than Davey and is basically a Japanese nationalist, indeed even Trump endorsed her
    ??

    Who suggested she was close to Davey? It was a comment about the dominance of the LDP not on whatever internal party factional changes they've done this time.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169
    Cookie said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    Penny
    Not actually an MP?
    I'm fully aware of that fact
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,611
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    I'd argue that Starmer knew something about Mandelson and Epstein but felt that, in the circumstances, Mandelson's possible relationship with Trump 'trumped' it.
    As argued persuasively by others on pb over the past few says.
    Including me.

    Undoubtedly that was the plan

    As I said a few days ago, the big missing was an exit plan.

    One the deals were done they could have announced it was a temporary appointment 6 months and out.

    They'd be sitting high and dry now.
    The first rule of dealing with wrong ‘uns is to have details, in great depth on what is wrong with them.

    Relying on the account of man who has previously lied amount money and friendships with rich, powerful people is insane.

    Especially when the issue is money and friendships with a rich, powerful person.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,533
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    Personally, I have very little idea if Kemi would make a good PM. The character flaws pointed out by @Leon seem valid and concerning. But she is reasonably bright, reasonably articulate and reasonably hard working. She has a very weak shadow cabinet, almost as bad as Starmer has to live with, and they are not compensating for her lack of vision or ideas. The bar is pretty low these days and it has been since Cameron.
    I think she might be ok. Is that enough? Given the alternatives it might be. The lack of talent everywhere is painful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    edited 12:45PM
    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    I love when features are included because of the predictable ineptitude of the user. Like how office printers have the ability to staple loose pages post printing, because they know people will forget to select the option to do it automatically as it is printed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    In January the conservatives led labour in 14 polls - level in 2 - within 1% in 4 and you use one 16% poll to talk about Kemi defenestration

    I do not understand your agenda nor would Cleverly
    But you're missing the point, which is focussing the minds of Tory MPs.

    Not a single poll in January had the Tories polling above their 2024 general election score.

    14 out of 24 polls had the Tory VI in the teens.

    The Tories have gone backwards under Kemi.
    I would suggest she took on a poisoned chalice and has taken time to change the party and recently has improved culminating in her success last week at PMQs when she got Stamer's admission about Mandelson

    Now, I have supported the conservatives for over 60 years, been campaign driver for the wonderful late Lord Wyn Roberts and was campaign driver for David Jones when bigotgate broke on the news, and how we laughed

    I did vote for Blair twice as the party was, like in 2024 spent, but what I want is for Kemi to be given a fair chance and not subject to talk of defenesfration yet again, making the party a laughing stock

    I do not think that is unreasonable

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,886
    edited 12:46PM
    An AI model from China just crossed a cinematic threshold. Seedance 2.0 is here. 10 wild examples

    https://x.com/HeyZaraKhan/status/2020155528710656371?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island
    If you take away the criminal thrill enticement, I'm hard pressed to understand what was so great about partying with Epstein that would entice the super wealthy and connected to hang around him - they have so many more options if they want to hobnob with each other, or have a drugged up (but otherwise legal) orgy or whatever.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,553
    kle4 said:

    Feels like HYUFD has really gone off Kemi in the last couple of weeks, which feels significant to me as a weathervane .

    No offence to HYUFD, but I would disagree. He relies on the polls to inform his views, though seems to ignore the leader ratings.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,811
    edited 12:46PM
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
    Would you ever go Reform? In what circs if so? Genuinely curious
    I ought to be their target market. I am genuinely furious about - not immigration per se, because I welcome most of it - but the way we have bent over backwards to welcome large numbers of immigrants who are either criminal or appear to hate us, or both.
    But I have grave doubts about the Trumpiness of many of the individuals involved in the party and some of the associated policies; I have grave doubts about many of the individuals involved (though none of them appear as dubious as anything Peter fucking Mandelson has got up to), I have grave doubts about their position wrt Ukraine, and that policy paper they wrote on High Speed rail.was utter bilge. So at present I'd actively vote to keep them out of power. I don't find them conceptually objectionable in the way that,say, Roger does; but in practice my view is that Reform in power would be a bad outcome: worse even than Labour.
    But that's just my view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    edited 12:48PM
    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    Personally, I have very little idea if Kemi would make a good PM. The character flaws pointed out by @Leon seem valid and concerning. But she is reasonably bright, reasonably articulate and reasonably hard working. She has a very weak shadow cabinet, almost as bad as Starmer has to live with, and they are not compensating for her lack of vision or ideas. The bar is pretty low these days and it has been since Cameron.
    I think she might be ok. Is that enough? Given the alternatives it might be. The lack of talent everywhere is painful.
    Cleverly, Stride, Philp, Patel, Burghart, Timothy, just off the top of my head I named 6 in her Shadow Cabinet more heavyweight than she is
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    edited 12:48PM
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Feels like HYUFD has really gone off Kemi in the last couple of weeks, which feels significant to me as a weathervane .

    No offence to HYUFD, but I would disagree. He relies on the polls to inform his views, though seems to ignore the leader ratings.
    The question would be if that is common among other longstanding Tory loyalists. I suspect it varies based on local strength - activists in any area now without MPs or even councillor control may be more tempted to see the end from bad polls than those where there is still some genuine fight going on.

    A bit like how the LDs can rise to dominance then totally disappear from an area all within a few years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,952
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
    Would you ever go Reform? In what circs if so? Genuinely curious
    I ought to be their target market. I am genuinely furious about - not immigration per se, because I welcome most of it - but the way we have bent over backwards to welcome large numbers of immigrants who are either criminal or appear to hate us, or both.
    But I have grave doubts about the Trumpiness of many of them; I have grave doubts about many of the individuals involved (though none of them appear as dubious as anything Peter fucking Mandelson has got up to), I have grave doubts about their position wrt Ukraine, and that policy paper they wrote on High Speed rail.was utter bilge. So at present I'd actively vote to keep them out of power. I don't find them conceptually objectionable in the way that,say, Roger does; but in practice my view is that Reform in power would be a bad outcome: worse even than Labour.
    But that's just my view.
    Huge failure to see the bigger picture there I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,533
    edited 12:54PM

    Nepal lose the two batsmen who were making a difference. England's to lose now.

    This is really tight. Could still go either way. Not a great start for England.

    At least I hope its going to be tight. This is a hell of an over.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169
    Unless Lady Harman or Hillary Benn decide to step in as an interim Party Leader and PM, Starmer is going no where until June.

    I'd like it to football club close to relegation, not mathematically certain but likely.

    No guaranteed money in the bank and dissention in the dressing room.

    Hard to find a caretaker until fate is known, no one wants the job in the interim and in all of the credible candidates a degree of loyalty to the incumbent.

    No move yet feasible for the most desired and likely candidates.

    Only solution, heads down, ride out the storm, battle like crazy for every point, every vote and set out stall for the future boss whoever that may be.

    A move to take over now would be political suicide.

    Besides in a few months the points needed may be in the bag and the boss might just be exonerated strictly speaking that he didn't know the full picture.

    Labour figures would be wise to remember the story of one of their own Sir Alex Ferguson, one game away from the sack, a very lucky win, then a decade of growth and domination.

    It aint over til the fat lady sings..

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    Nepal storming to a win here. Deservedly too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509
    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Very much the mans club so furiously attacked this morning by women across the political divide
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    I'd argue that Starmer knew something about Mandelson and Epstein but felt that, in the circumstances, Mandelson's possible relationship with Trump 'trumped' it.
    As argued persuasively by others on pb over the past few says.
    Including me.

    Undoubtedly that was the plan

    As I said a few days ago, the big missing was an exit plan.

    One the deals were done they could have announced it was a temporary appointment 6 months and out.

    They'd be sitting high and dry now.
    The first rule of dealing with wrong ‘uns is to have details, in great depth on what is wrong with them.

    Relying on the account of man who has previously lied amount money and friendships with rich, powerful people is insane.

    Especially when the issue is money and friendships with a rich, powerful person.
    Could ask how the feck was Boris allowed to be PM then?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    In January the conservatives led labour in 14 polls - level in 2 - within 1% in 4 and you use one 16% poll to talk about Kemi defenestration

    I do not understand your agenda nor would Cleverly
    But you're missing the point, which is focussing the minds of Tory MPs.

    Not a single poll in January had the Tories polling above their 2024 general election score.

    14 out of 24 polls had the Tory VI in the teens.

    The Tories have gone backwards under Kemi.
    To be fair, Labour had poll leads under Miliband, and were falling to pieces in 2016 under Corbyn. Well, look how those turned out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,533
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    Personally, I have very little idea if Kemi would make a good PM. The character flaws pointed out by @Leon seem valid and concerning. But she is reasonably bright, reasonably articulate and reasonably hard working. She has a very weak shadow cabinet, almost as bad as Starmer has to live with, and they are not compensating for her lack of vision or ideas. The bar is pretty low these days and it has been since Cameron.
    I think she might be ok. Is that enough? Given the alternatives it might be. The lack of talent everywhere is painful.
    Cleverly, Stride, Philp, Patel, Burghart, Timothy, just off the top of my head I named 6 in her Shadow Cabinet more heavyweight than she is
    I respectfully disagree. And I for one am much more likely to vote for a Tory party that doesn't have Jenrick or Braverman in it. I accept to win the Tories need a broad coalition but those 2 and some of the others who have left were uncomfortable bed fellows.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,611
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island
    If you take away the criminal thrill enticement, I'm hard pressed to understand what was so great about partying with Epstein that would entice the super wealthy and connected to hang around him - they have so many more options if they want to hobnob with each other, or have a drugged up (but otherwise legal) orgy or whatever.
    A common theme with cult leaders and the truly evil political leaders, is a hypnotic charisma.

    When they are dead/gone the cold facts of who and what they were sound grotesque & hideous. Yet while they were alive, the rich and powerful flocked to sit at their feet.

    Epstein seems to have been such a one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427

    stodge said:

    WTAF is 'AI-mentum'?

    As you well know, it's the idea a political unknown like Al Carns could be the next Prime Minister.

    He ticks a couple of boxes - reasonably photogenic, military background but it's a real leap in the dark to imagine him as PM. Could he move up the Cabinet? Yes, certainly and in time he could well be a serious contender.

    It looks desperate - it could work and redefine politics for the next two decades or he could be Labour's Liz Truss, who knows?

    My current view, and this won't surprise, is Starmer is going nowhere unless he wants to go somewhere. I've been disappointed by him but not surprised - it's not the timidity or the caution that's the problem but the lack of any policy which could be called "radical". Where is the response to child poverty, homelessness, addiction problems etc, etc? If a majority of 170 doesn't give you a mandate to do something, we might as well end elections.

    It's not as though the "Right" (whatever that means) has anything to offer either which is the tragedy of all this.

    It's left to Reform or the Greens or groups like the Newham Independents to make big policy pronouncements and promise the Sun, the Moon and the stars but you and I both know they are all fiscally incoherent in extremis but desperate, disillusioned people will once again sign up to the nonsense.
    Re: “radical” I think the issue is that none of the things you mention are Starmer’s passion. Of course he supports them, like any bien pessant member of the Hampstead set but he’s not motivated to make them his legacy. He’s an international human rights lawyer - what he cares about is things like Chagos and cleaning up the loose ends of Empire. But those aren’t exactly popular… I reckon if he thought he could get away with it he’d give up Gib and the Falklands too…
    He'd absolutely to give up Gib and the Falklands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    edited 12:54PM
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    In January the conservatives led labour in 14 polls - level in 2 - within 1% in 4 and you use one 16% poll to talk about Kemi defenestration

    I do not understand your agenda nor would Cleverly
    But you're missing the point, which is focussing the minds of Tory MPs.

    Not a single poll in January had the Tories polling above their 2024 general election score.

    14 out of 24 polls had the Tory VI in the teens.

    The Tories have gone backwards under Kemi.
    To be fair, Labour had poll leads under Miliband, and were falling to pieces in 2016 under Corbyn. Well, look how those turned out.
    Labour's lowest voteshare under Corbyn in 2016 was 24% in December 2016, 8% higher than the Tories are on with Opinium this weekend and indeed higher than most Labour voteshares with Starmer now

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
    Would you ever go Reform? In what circs if so? Genuinely curious
    I ought to be their target market. I am genuinely furious about - not immigration per se, because I welcome most of it - but the way we have bent over backwards to welcome large numbers of immigrants who are either criminal or appear to hate us, or both.
    But I have grave doubts about the Trumpiness of many of the individuals involved in the party and some of the associated policies; I have grave doubts about many of the individuals involved (though none of them appear as dubious as anything Peter fucking Mandelson has got up to), I have grave doubts about their position wrt Ukraine, and that policy paper they wrote on High Speed rail.was utter bilge. So at present I'd actively vote to keep them out of power. I don't find them conceptually objectionable in the way that,say, Roger does; but in practice my view is that Reform in power would be a bad outcome: worse even than Labour.
    But that's just my view.
    Interesting and valuable and thanks for taking time to reply

    It’s a shame for Reform because they need voters like you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829

    stodge said:

    WTAF is 'AI-mentum'?

    As you well know, it's the idea a political unknown like Al Carns could be the next Prime Minister.

    He ticks a couple of boxes - reasonably photogenic, military background but it's a real leap in the dark to imagine him as PM. Could he move up the Cabinet? Yes, certainly and in time he could well be a serious contender.

    It looks desperate - it could work and redefine politics for the next two decades or he could be Labour's Liz Truss, who knows?

    My current view, and this won't surprise, is Starmer is going nowhere unless he wants to go somewhere. I've been disappointed by him but not surprised - it's not the timidity or the caution that's the problem but the lack of any policy which could be called "radical". Where is the response to child poverty, homelessness, addiction problems etc, etc? If a majority of 170 doesn't give you a mandate to do something, we might as well end elections.

    It's not as though the "Right" (whatever that means) has anything to offer either which is the tragedy of all this.

    It's left to Reform or the Greens or groups like the Newham Independents to make big policy pronouncements and promise the Sun, the Moon and the stars but you and I both know they are all fiscally incoherent in extremis but desperate, disillusioned people will once again sign up to the nonsense.
    Re: “radical” I think the issue is that none of the things you mention are Starmer’s passion. Of course he supports them, like any bien pessant member of the Hampstead set but he’s not motivated to make them his legacy. He’s an international human rights lawyer - what he cares about is things like Chagos and cleaning up the loose ends of Empire. But those aren’t exactly popular… I reckon if he thought he could get away with it he’d give up Gib and the Falklands too…
    He'd absolutely to give up Gib and the Falklands.
    Though knows he can't electorally
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,660
    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    I'd argue that Starmer knew something about Mandelson and Epstein but felt that, in the circumstances, Mandelson's possible relationship with Trump 'trumped' it.
    As argued persuasively by others on pb over the past few says.
    Including me.

    Undoubtedly that was the plan

    As I said a few days ago, the big missing was an exit plan.

    One the deals were done they could have announced it was a temporary appointment 6 months and out.

    They'd be sitting high and dry now.
    The first rule of dealing with wrong ‘uns is to have details, in great depth on what is wrong with them.

    Relying on the account of man who has previously lied amount money and friendships with rich, powerful people is insane.

    Especially when the issue is money and friendships with a rich, powerful person.
    Could ask how the feck was Boris allowed to be PM then?
    Tory MPs thought he was the best chance of retaining their seats.

    They were right about that, though that they ditched him after 3 years despite a big win demonstrates they knew he was seriously problematic and probably was going to cause more and more issues as a result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531

    Nepal lose the two batsmen who were making a difference. England's to lose now.

    So it's your fault?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
    Maxwell was worth $1.9 billion when his business empire was at its peak according to Forbes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Plaid said they would not push independence this time
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 400

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    I am not here to defend Starmer but unless she has evidence to back that up I suspect Badenoch's loose tongue is getting the better of her AGAIN.

    He said it himself at pmq!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
    Well, why gamble your own money?

    Funny thing, billionaires, as you have ones out there who have never run a successful business, like Adam Neumann of WeWork, yet manage to walk about super wealthy nonetheless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
    Maxwell was worth $1.9 billion when his business empire was at its peak according to Forbes
    Or said he was.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    i have all important photos backed up to iCloud AND Google (and possible amazon, I can’t remember)

    Also stored on Dropbox, and stored on hard drives on 3 iPads and 2 phones at least, in different locations

    It would take nuclear war AND a Lib Dem GE victory to wipe out my photo life
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,433

    For what it's worth, and I pay less attention to politics than I used to and much less than the average here, the criticism and negative attention I've seen thrown at Badenoch seems par for the course for a major political leader. Consider the heaps of effluence regularly emptied atop Starmer.

    Starmer deserves the effluent
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,533
    ydoethur said:

    Nepal storming to a win here. Deservedly too.

    That was a truly appalling over by Wood. 3 wides in a tight game in 1 over. Jeez.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    In January the conservatives led labour in 14 polls - level in 2 - within 1% in 4 and you use one 16% poll to talk about Kemi defenestration

    I do not understand your agenda nor would Cleverly
    But you're missing the point, which is focussing the minds of Tory MPs.

    Not a single poll in January had the Tories polling above their 2024 general election score.

    14 out of 24 polls had the Tory VI in the teens.

    The Tories have gone backwards under Kemi.
    To be fair, Labour had poll leads under Miliband, and were falling to pieces in 2016 under Corbyn. Well, look how those turned out.
    Labour's lowest voteshare under Corbyn in 2016 was 24% in December 2016, 8% higher than the Tories are on with Opinium this weekend and indeed higher than most Labour voteshares with Starmer now

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    I wonder - do you ever lift your head from opinion polls no matter how old

    Anyway no point in engaging with you anymore over Kemi as you pursue your strange agenda
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Ruled out for first term
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,433
    Brixian59 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Interesting the ladies on the Trevor Phillips programme are incandescent that this is all about men acting as if they are the victims from Mandelson, to Blair, Brown, Starmer and in the US

    They reminded viewers it is the female victims who are wronged not an international mans club


    Ahem ...... as I have been saying.

    "Phallic drift": The powerful tendency for public discussion of female issues to drift, inexorably, back to the male point of view.

    If we really want serious change, instead of focusing on yet another process of what it means for the future career of this or that politician, perhaps the Gordon Browns of this world (especially the Gordon Brown who brought Mandelson back into government, who employed the McBride who decided to spin luridly sexual lies about Tory women) and other commentators could just this once - and for a change - stop giving us their views and learn to listen to women, really listen. They could accept that they have been wrong to ignore what women have been saying for YEARS. They could discuss - just for once - what should be done now for women rather than simply trotting out the same old empty cliches about strategies against VAWG while promulgating policies which make this more likely or do damn all about it. They might also think about what this case, the Pelicot one, the Joanne Young one, grooming gangs, the consistent murder rate of women by men, the language used to describe women if they so much as complain about any of this, and many many other examples say about male behaviour and society's tolerance of it.

    Women don't need talking heads. What we want and need are politicians - male or female - who show some genuine interest in improving matters for women, have effective plans to make this happen and the courage and determination to see these through. We've been waiting long enough. And we are both unsurprised by any of this and utterly bloody furious.

    As you have often said, this forum has so little women representation and maybe we should ask why

    You and @fitalass have a real case, and I have an instinct that the 'mans club' in politics is about to see a women's movement even similar to the suffragettes rising up and saying enough

    We see it on here with men pilling into Kemi Badenoch, one of only 2 high profile women in politics at present

    Mandelson's outrage must lead to the end of the mans club both here and abroad
    Don't be so precious, Badenoch is Tory leader.

    In the entire history of this site, name me any Tory leader ever that has not had men piling in to criticise them.

    It goes with the territory.
    Of course she should be criticised when it is justified, but at present she is the one leading politician receiving praise for her improvement

    The wider point is womans anger at the mans club in poltics and power
    Her being Tory leader is all the justification some people need to seek to criticise her.

    See also Starmer and any other major party leader ever.
    Burgardt made the statement Kemi is "honest"

    A Web hacker is a criminal

    Not honest

    Simeone who lies about a University offer that the University have no record of is a bare faced liar.

    Not honest

    You really are a piece of work. Just because the Uni has no record doesn't mean it's a untruth. I doubt my old "uni" has a record of mine as I didn't go in the end.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,611
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
    Maxwell was worth $1.9 billion when his business empire was at its peak according to Forbes
    IIRC it wasn’t gambling that did for him, but fraudulent inflation of his empire, by persistent financial malpractice.

    The theft from the pension funds was the last stage of trying to keep the plates spinning,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    Any younger conservative potentials thesedays seem more enticed by Reform, who are more exciting.

    Although I do know a handful of twenty something Tories, so they do exist albeit endangered.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,811
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    i have all important photos backed up to iCloud AND Google (and possible amazon, I can’t remember)

    Also stored on Dropbox, and stored on hard drives on 3 iPads and 2 phones at least, in different locations

    It would take nuclear war AND a Lib Dem GE victory to wipe out my photo life
    or the tech moving on... I worry about this vaguely but constantly.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,520
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    i have all important photos backed up to iCloud AND Google (and possible amazon, I can’t remember)

    Also stored on Dropbox, and stored on hard drives on 3 iPads and 2 phones at least, in different locations

    It would take nuclear war AND a Lib Dem GE victory to wipe out my photo life
    Mandelson no doubt said similar - and yet a couple of days notice of a Police raid and they all went.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island.

    You have to hand it to Epstein, he may have been an evil shit but he knew how to drag half the rich and powerful elite down with him. From Princes like Andrew to billionaires like Bill Gates, dead billionaire's daughters like Maxwell, to politicians like Mandelson and Alli and mixing with Bill Clinton and Trump and his Commerce Secretary and actors like Spacey and wealthy entrepreneurs like Branson and Musk
    Was Maxwell ever a billionaire? If so, why did he need to rob his employees' pension pots to fund his gambling habit?
    Maxwell was worth $1.9 billion when his business empire was at its peak according to Forbes
    IIRC it wasn’t gambling that did for him, but fraudulent inflation of his empire, by persistent financial malpractice.

    The theft from the pension funds was the last stage of trying to keep the plates spinning,
    He'd probably be a popular politician in this day and age, fraudulent inflation is basically de rigeur for boosting business.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,221

    Brixian59 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Interesting the ladies on the Trevor Phillips programme are incandescent that this is all about men acting as if they are the victims from Mandelson, to Blair, Brown, Starmer and in the US

    They reminded viewers it is the female victims who are wronged not an international mans club


    Ahem ...... as I have been saying.

    "Phallic drift": The powerful tendency for public discussion of female issues to drift, inexorably, back to the male point of view.

    If we really want serious change, instead of focusing on yet another process of what it means for the future career of this or that politician, perhaps the Gordon Browns of this world (especially the Gordon Brown who brought Mandelson back into government, who employed the McBride who decided to spin luridly sexual lies about Tory women) and other commentators could just this once - and for a change - stop giving us their views and learn to listen to women, really listen. They could accept that they have been wrong to ignore what women have been saying for YEARS. They could discuss - just for once - what should be done now for women rather than simply trotting out the same old empty cliches about strategies against VAWG while promulgating policies which make this more likely or do damn all about it. They might also think about what this case, the Pelicot one, the Joanne Young one, grooming gangs, the consistent murder rate of women by men, the language used to describe women if they so much as complain about any of this, and many many other examples say about male behaviour and society's tolerance of it.

    Women don't need talking heads. What we want and need are politicians - male or female - who show some genuine interest in improving matters for women, have effective plans to make this happen and the courage and determination to see these through. We've been waiting long enough. And we are both unsurprised by any of this and utterly bloody furious.

    As you have often said, this forum has so little women representation and maybe we should ask why

    You and @fitalass have a real case, and I have an instinct that the 'mans club' in politics is about to see a women's movement even similar to the suffragettes rising up and saying enough

    We see it on here with men pilling into Kemi Badenoch, one of only 2 high profile women in politics at present

    Mandelson's outrage must lead to the end of the mans club both here and abroad
    Don't be so precious, Badenoch is Tory leader.

    In the entire history of this site, name me any Tory leader ever that has not had men piling in to criticise them.

    It goes with the territory.
    Of course she should be criticised when it is justified, but at present she is the one leading politician receiving praise for her improvement

    The wider point is womans anger at the mans club in poltics and power
    Her being Tory leader is all the justification some people need to seek to criticise her.

    See also Starmer and any other major party leader ever.
    Burgardt made the statement Kemi is "honest"

    A Web hacker is a criminal

    Not honest

    Simeone who lies about a University offer that the University have no record of is a bare faced liar.

    Not honest

    You really are a piece of work. Just because the Uni has no record doesn't mean it's a untruth. I doubt my old "uni" has a record of mine as I didn't go in the end.
    It is an untruth because the university in question never makes those kind of offers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/01/politicians-urge-badenoch-to-come-clean-after-doubts-cast-on-us-medical-school-claim
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    Desperate stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,829
    edited 1:05PM

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    Except under Kemi even Tory support amongst the elderly has collapsed.

    In 2024 even Rishi got 33% of 60-69 year olds and the Tories also got a massive 46% of over 70s still.
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election

    Yet under Kemi Yougov now has the Tories down to 32% with over 70s and overtaken by Reform who are on 33% now with those aged 70+.

    36% of 60-69s now plan to vote Reform too and just 22% Tory.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53923-how-would-britain-vote-at-the-start-of-2026

    Indeed under Kemi the Tories are down with every age group over 50 since 2024 and unchanged with those 40-49.

    Kemi has made a tiny bit of progress with under 40s, gaining 2% with 18-30s on what Rishi got and 1% with 30-39s but that is it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,221
    Never in doubt your nervous Nellies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    edited 1:09PM
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    i have all important photos backed up to iCloud AND Google (and possible amazon, I can’t remember)

    Also stored on Dropbox, and stored on hard drives on 3 iPads and 2 phones at least, in different locations

    It would take nuclear war AND a Lib Dem GE victory to wipe out my photo life
    Mandelson no doubt said similar - and yet a couple of days notice of a Police raid and they all went.
    IIRC in the Wagatha Christie case one of the parties (I cannot remember who was who) had an assistant/agent who was supposed to hand over their phone, and told the lawyers they'd gone deep sea fishing and dropped it in the ocean or something.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    Never in doubt...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    Nepal should have won that game.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,533
    What an over by Sam Curran.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,886
    More of a lucky escape than finding that Peter Mandelson's BT emails have been lost forever.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    This can easily happen.

    I have all my stuff carried over on various memory sticks over the last 20 years.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
    It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
    I assume PC will be happy just to be in the SNP position of dominance even when they are unpopular, as an initial goal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    Except under Kemi even Tory support amongst the elderly has collapsed.

    In 2024 even Rishi got 33% of 60-69 year olds and the Tories also got a massive 46% of over 70s still.
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election

    Yet under Kemi Yougov now has the Tories down to 32% with over 70s and overtaken by Reform who are on 33% now with those aged 70+.

    36% of 60-69s now plan to vote Reform too and just 22% Tory.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53923-how-would-britain-vote-at-the-start-of-2026

    Indeed under Kemi the Tories are down with every age group over 50 since 2024 and unchanged with those 40-49.

    Kemi has made a tiny bit of progress with under 40s, gaining 2% with 18-30s on what Rishi got and 1% with 30-39s but that is it
    Which is possibly a good thing.

    Anything that suggests the Tories aren't totally reliant on the over 70s and of some prospective interest to under 50s gives them scope and freedom to grow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Ruled out for first term
    Ruled out because he knows it'd be toxic and it's also total fantasy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,520
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and cloudy?

    “Asked Cowork to organise my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”.
    Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything.
    It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal
    It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure.
    She didn’t have Time Machine.
    Disc recovery tools can’t see anything.
    I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days).
    I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack.”


    https://x.com/nick_davidov/status/2019982510478995782?s=46

    The reason that iCloud has this exact feature is… exactly for this case.

    I use NAS, cloud & offline disc at third location for everything important.
    i have all important photos backed up to iCloud AND Google (and possible amazon, I can’t remember)

    Also stored on Dropbox, and stored on hard drives on 3 iPads and 2 phones at least, in different locations

    It would take nuclear war AND a Lib Dem GE victory to wipe out my photo life
    Mandelson no doubt said similar - and yet a couple of days notice of a Police raid and they all went.
    IIRC in the Wagatha Christie case one of the parties (I cannot remember who was who) had an assistant/agent whow as supposed to hand over their phone, and told the lawyers they'd gone deep sea fishing and dropped in the ocean or something.
    I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but the acts of the authorities and the acts that one would expect if there was some great conspiracy do often seem hard to distinguish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433
    edited 1:10PM

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)

    What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”

    The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
    It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
    Presumably the London train was a Voyager express from Holyhead down the WCML from Llandudno Junction and the Cardiff train was the stopper with either a beat-up 158 or one of the new sets (which I like, but are not exactly speedy)?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,811

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    So are you voting Conservative then under Kemi, if not, who cares?
    Well yes. I voted Con in 2019 but not in 2024. And at present with Kemi I'd default back to Con. The exception would be if there were local tactical.considerations, which I doubt there will be.
    I'd say at present the Cookie vote is 50% likely to go to Con, 25% SDP, 10% Lab.
    Would you ever go Reform? In what circs if so? Genuinely curious
    I ought to be their target market. I am genuinely furious about - not immigration per se, because I welcome most of it - but the way we have bent over backwards to welcome large numbers of immigrants who are either criminal or appear to hate us, or both.
    But I have grave doubts about the Trumpiness of many of them; I have grave doubts about many of the individuals involved (though none of them appear as dubious as anything Peter fucking Mandelson has got up to), I have grave doubts about their position wrt Ukraine, and that policy paper they wrote on High Speed rail.was utter bilge. So at present I'd actively vote to keep them out of power. I don't find them conceptually objectionable in the way that,say, Roger does; but in practice my view is that Reform in power would be a bad outcome: worse even than Labour.
    But that's just my view.
    Huge failure to see the bigger picture there I think.
    I think the bigger picture is the long-term endurance of western civilisation. My view is while Ref have some positives on this over their mainstream alternatives, their dubious positioms wrt Ukraine and their apparent enthusiasm for Donald Trump places them as a net negative on this. So I think I do see the big picture, I just come to a different conclusion to you at the moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
    I assume PC will be happy just to be in the SNP position of dominance even when they are unpopular, as an initial goal.
    Ironically the new system of voting will make that much harder to sustain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,034

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
    Possibly so, one reason support has never been as high, but when people get emotional enough they'll believe anything.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,308

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
    That seems a small price to pay to have a fully operational international airport a quarter of an hour from home.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,168
    Leon said:

    Who is so stupid they don’t have all their most precious photos backed up in multiple locations both real and

    Lots of people.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 169

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    Desperate stuff.
    What's Pritti got hidden that means no Tory Leader will sack her.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    edited 1:14PM
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)

    What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”

    The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
    Come on Leon, this pussyfooting is just silly. Come off the fence and tell us what you REALLY think about them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,433

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    Desperate stuff.
    Its all so reminiscent of tim.it could easily be a reemergence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    edited 1:17PM

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
    That seems a small price to pay to have a fully operational international airport a quarter of an hour from home.
    That's another thing that would need fixing. And not on the existing site as it's a damnfool place for an airport. The Glamorgan Levels would be the obvious place but the shrieking from environmentalists would be something else.

    Ironically it would be easier to do in North Wales where there's decent infrastructure already for an apart on Anglesey by taking over RAF Valley although the runway would presumably need rebuilding.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,173
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?

    Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.

    Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
    She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.

    She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.

    She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
    Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
    I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her

    She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs

    The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
    The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.

    Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
    And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)

    What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”

    The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
    The Voice of Reason from Reform there, Ladies & Gentlemen
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,433
    edited 1:19PM

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    Desperate stuff.
    Its all so reminiscent of tim.it could easily be a reemergence.
    I remember @tim well, this is nothing like Tim

    I welcome new PB-ers but @tim was genuinely sharp and witty and this new chap….. less so

    Speaking of Tims where is our wine guy, @TimS?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,509
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.

    All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).

    And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.

    Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
    It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
    Presumably the London train was a Voyager express from Holyhead down the WCML from Llandudno Junction and the Cardiff train was the stopper with either a beat-up 158 or one of the new sets (which I like, but are not exactly speedy)?
    Avanti pendolino to London but one of the new sets but the line from Shrewsbury is slow and as you say stopper

    It is not going to change in the foreseable future
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,308
    edited 1:27PM
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
    That seems a small price to pay to have a fully operational international airport a quarter of an hour from home.
    That's another thing that would need fixing. And not on the existing site as it's a damnfool place for an airport. The Glamorgan Levels would be the obvious place but the shrieking from environmentalists would be something else.

    Ironically it would be easier to do in North Wales where there's decent infrastructure already for an apart on Anglesey by taking over RAF Valley although the runway would presumably need rebuilding.
    Estuary airport on the Eastern end of the Llanwern Steel Works site rears up every few decades. But that would kill both Rhoose and Bristol.

    Rhoose isn't as easily accessible from the M4 as would be optimal, but neither is Bristol from the M5. In the multi storey at Bristol airport more cars have a "c" prefix than a "w" prefix.

    Valley would be no use to anyone. More importantly it's five hours from me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,427
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform
    unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.

    Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs

    The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda

    The Telegraph does not agree with you

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
    I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.

    If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
    Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?

    Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/

    Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.

    He didn't have the balls to sack her

    She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.

    She chose not to care.

    I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
    Desperate stuff.
    What's Pritti got hidden that means no Tory Leader will sack her.
    You are a boring tedious troll.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,531
    edited 1:28PM

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster

    He will generate growth

    He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial

    So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?

    Frit.
    Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
    An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
    That seems a small price to pay to have a fully operational international airport a quarter of an hour from home.
    That's another thing that would need fixing. And not on the existing site as it's a damnfool place for an airport. The Glamorgan Levels would be the obvious place but the shrieking from environmentalists would be something else.

    Ironically it would be easier to do in North Wales where there's decent infrastructure already for an apart on Anglesey by taking over RAF Valley although the runway would presumably need rebuilding.
    Estuary airport on the Eastern end of the Llanwern Steel Works site rears up every few decades. But that would kill both Rhoose and Bristol.

    Rhoose isn't as easily accessible from the M4 as would be optimal, but neither is Bristol from the M5. In the multi storey at Bristol airport more cars have a "c" prefix than a "w" prefix.

    Valley would be no use to anyone. More importantly it's five hours from me
    Well, yes, killing both airports should be the name of the game. They're both useless. You can't even get to Bristol by train and the bus transfer is absolutely extortionate.

    I wasn't thinking of Valley as a replacement for Cardiff, but as an airport in its own right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,168
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island
    If you take away the criminal thrill enticement, I'm hard pressed to understand what was so great about partying with Epstein that would entice the super wealthy and connected to hang around him - they have so many more options if they want to hobnob with each other, or have a drugged up (but otherwise legal) orgy or whatever.
    For a number of them, Trump included, it was also the money laundering and access to dodgy funds from places like Russia.

    The jet and private island were likely an attraction for politicians who couldn't dream of affording either.

    For scientists, he was a source of funding.

    For the very rich, access to an array of politicians on terms they probably couldn't arrange themselves.

    As well as a criminal and rapist, he was an assiduous networker, and provided a unique mix of services for those who care nothing for morality.
    There wasn't really anyone else quite like that.

    And recall this was two decades ago. Quite a different world.
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