Pretty good for Labour that. Strange that the Tories are so far behind, despite Kemi being 35 pts better off than Sir Keir in the leader ratings
Tories have been trapped in the 16 to 18 bracket with opinium since May, theyve had higher ratings with every other pollster (and a few lower). Opinium are now their worst pollster. In the same period, Lab have had 19 once and 20 to 26 otherwise. So probably their best pollster
I remain an unashamed fan of Kemi. I believe that she’s far more articulate, attractive and intelligent than Keir, or any of his potential replacements
But I still don’t understand how the hell the Tories managed to have a black woman leader, and an Asian PM, before Labour have strayed from white male
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Boost of 1%?
After the WORST WEEK EVAH for any Prime Minister EVAH, I suspect Number Ten will take that.
Obvs, there are a couple of caveats. One is that it takes time for events to feed into polling, and it's early days. The other is that (I think) Opinium make assumptions about swing back that might be optimistic in the current circumstances.
But the other thing is that the people following this story closely have already made their mind up about Starmer. Sensible normal people get ninety seconds of news and you're up to date. They may well be aware of the story for just long enough to file it as "Westminster bubble bullshit".
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
The problem you have it is poor for the party but not Kemi who is improving
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
Probably best to look at polling in the round. This is a totally normal Opinium output for the last 9 months. Nothing in it is 'new' Its just noise around the long term trend and happens to be low end Con, but theyve been 16 to 18 with Opinium since May 2 2025, its a ridiculously unvaried number, esp as (for example) LD are -3 in just one fortnight (which is also just noise)
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
The problem you have it is poor for the party but not Kemi who is improving
Read the details and she is ahead of Farage
If SIXTEEN percent is improving, I dread to think what going backwards is for Kemi, 10% and 0 Tory MPs left?
Opinium also has Farage now preferred as PM to Starmer but Starmer also still preferred as PM to Kemi
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
He is so predictable and just when the party needs loyal supporters
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
No, even the trashed Conservative brand got 24% in 2024.
Kemi has managed to go beyond that and lose another third of even those who stuck with the Tories in 2024!!!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
The problem you have it is poor for the party but not Kemi who is improving
Read the details and she is ahead of Farage
If SIXTEEN percent is improving, I dread to think what going backwards is for Kemi, 10% and 0 Tory MPs left?
Opinium also has Farage now preferred as PM to Starmer but Starmer also still preferred as PM to Kemi
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
When they made Boris leader in 2019 as the Brexit Party surged, then in their idiocy removed Boris in 2022 enabling the Farage comeback in 2024
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
He is so predictable and just when the party needs loyal supporters
It's the trying to tack James Cleverly on to the end of everything.
I'm not sure even James Cleverly thinks about James Cleverly as much as our HYU.
Lib Dem’s have insitututed a ‘review’ - kick it into the long grass ?
‘ It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard. Then, the Lib Dems were in government. This week their leader was in Parliament haranguing @Keir_Starmer about why Peter Mandelson was still in the House of Lords. That incensed @aligoldsworthy - one of the women who originally came forward. She emailed @EdwardJDavey and passed the email to me on @TimesRadio . We interviewed her again and before I came off air Sir Ed said he wanted Lord Rennard out of the second chamber. Change is happening. Lord Rennard continues to deny the allegations.’
He suspended Rennard straight away. That's not kicking it into the long grass.
2013 to today is not ‘straight away’ and why did it take these victims making a fuss over his parties double standards when Ed D criticised why Mandelson was still in the Lords. It was only done as his hand was forced.
As Cathy Newman says
It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard.
He was suspended at the time. There was an investigation at the time that was inconclusive. He was eventually re-admitted to the party. Someone recently wrote to Davey and pointed out the case to him, arguing this wasn't good enough, and Davey agreed, immediately suspending Rennard again.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
Probably best to look at polling in the round. This is a totally normal Opinium output for the last 9 months. Nothing in it is 'new' Its just noise around the long term trend and happens to be low end Con, but theyve been 16 to 18 with Opinium since May 2 2025, its a ridiculously unvaried number, esp as (for example) LD are -3 in just one fortnight (which is also just noise)
Excluding FON 4 of the main 5 Pollsters had Labour at 20 to 22 and Tories at 17 to 18 in mid to late January.
A number of initiatives are starting to impact, increase in min and living wage, lower inflation. Lower mortgage rates, free school meals.
Take the leaders out of the equation, Tories have nothing new to say. Reform are less popular the more they say and the Greens are saying things that are anything but green. The Lds moan about left and right.
Jeez louise, one poll with a one point movement and its end of days. Like we havent had 300 polls since May 2025 shiwing a broadly similar picture for a GE that hasnt been called and isnt due
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
When they made Boris leader in 2019 as the Brexit Party surged, then in their idiocy removed Boris in 2022 enabling the Farage comeback in 2024
Kemi is doing a good job. Would be happy to see her as PM.
She'll be gone inside a year unless something dramatic happens - a traditional big two party cannot sustain years in 3rd place in the polls for so long (and perhaps worse, at actual elections, outside of a few bad by-elections).
Jeez louise, one poll with a one point movement and its end of days. Like we havent had 300 polls since May 2025 shiwing a broadly similar picture for a GE that hasnt been called and isnt due
Have you forgotten the daily YouGov between 2010 and 2015?
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
When they made Boris leader in 2019 as the Brexit Party surged, then in their idiocy removed Boris in 2022 enabling the Farage comeback in 2024
Back to Boris
I give up
I don't mind the argument it was a mistake to remove Boris, or that they might have done better at the next GE if they'd kept him, but it's still generally presented as some inexplicable moment of madness from MPs, as if them being pushed to breaking point by him (whether you agree with their action) did not happen, without the context it would not not be an argument made reasonably.
Jeez louise, one poll with a one point movement and its end of days. Like we havent had 300 polls since May 2025 shiwing a broadly similar picture for a GE that hasnt been called and isnt due
It wouldn't be PB if we didn't spend a Saturday night, years before any expected general election, analyzing to death a poll with a 1% MOE change!
It's what we've been doing since 2003 (Or in my case, 2006)
Ta. And how long did it take for Truss to affect VI?
About a week. 6 days after the mini budget the '33% lead' YouGov dropped and everything from then on was catastrophic in polling terms (a Kantar that straddled the mini budget had a 4 point lead )
Jeez louise, one poll with a one point movement and its end of days. Like we havent had 300 polls since May 2025 shiwing a broadly similar picture for a GE that hasnt been called and isnt due
Have you forgotten the daily YouGov between 2010 and 2015?
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
Lol, hows life been treating you Taz?
Extremely well, it has to be said. Cannot complain. Not being troubled by paid employment is blissful. Oh, and Blues thrashed @Foxy s team today too.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
He is so predictable and just when the party needs loyal supporters
Being loyal does not mean letting the party commit suicide too.
I will be loyal until May but if the Tories are third on seats won and NEV then Kemi will have to go.
Cleverly could at least shore up the 2024 Sunak vote in a way that she has so far failed to do and also win Labour and LD tactical voters to beat Reform in Tory held seats she has condemned as centrists.
Kemi's strategy of trashing the 'wet' centrist centre ground of the party and centrist swing voters while still failing to win back rightwing voters from Reform is just squeezing the life out of the Tory party. Only the most Tory of pure Tories are still voting Tory now if Opinium is correct
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
When they made Boris leader in 2019 as the Brexit Party surged, then in their idiocy removed Boris in 2022 enabling the Farage comeback in 2024
Back to Boris
I give up
It's a fair point; Boris was (among other things) a clear answer to "Farage is going to steal our lunch, what can the Conservatives do about that?" It was the "among other things" that was the problem- Boris was so predictably ethically compromised that it was bound to end in tears- remind you of anyone?
Boris simply had to go; had Paterson, Partygate, Pinchergate not got him, Pantsonfiregate would have. And if by some miracle he had survived that, something else was bound to come up, because Boris was Boris.
As for when Farage needed to be fired into the Sun, I suspect the key moment was much earlier than 2019.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Kemi is doing a good job. Would be happy to see her as PM.
She'll be gone inside a year unless something dramatic happens - a traditional big two party cannot sustain years in 3rd place in the polls for so long (and perhaps worse, at actual elections, outside of a few bad by-elections).
They arent third, the sverage has thrm slightly ahead of Labour.
Lib Dem’s have insitututed a ‘review’ - kick it into the long grass ?
‘ It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard. Then, the Lib Dems were in government. This week their leader was in Parliament haranguing @Keir_Starmer about why Peter Mandelson was still in the House of Lords. That incensed @aligoldsworthy - one of the women who originally came forward. She emailed @EdwardJDavey and passed the email to me on @TimesRadio . We interviewed her again and before I came off air Sir Ed said he wanted Lord Rennard out of the second chamber. Change is happening. Lord Rennard continues to deny the allegations.’
He suspended Rennard straight away. That's not kicking it into the long grass.
2013 to today is not ‘straight away’ and why did it take these victims making a fuss over his parties double standards when Ed D criticised why Mandelson was still in the Lords. It was only done as his hand was forced.
As Cathy Newman says
It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard.
He was suspended at the time. There was an investigation at the time that was inconclusive. He was eventually re-admitted to the party. Someone recently wrote to Davey and pointed out the case to him, arguing this wasn't good enough, and Davey agreed, immediately suspending Rennard again.
If he still has scope to suspend him despite a previous inconclusive investigation and readmission, then then obvious question would be was there not a way to not readmit him in the first place? They can argue about the timelines of what was reasonably reaction perhaps, but at a glance (all most people will see), it probably doesn't look great.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
The Liberals now have over 70 MPs, which is a damn sight better than the number the Tories would get with Opinium this evening!!!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
Indeed!
I'm not saying the Conservatives will come back What is happening at the moment could well be the end of the party founded in 1834 and the Tory Party before that.
It is existential for the Conservatives. They are in far more trouble than they were between 97-01, for example.
And none of it, I may add, is Kemi's fault. They are lucky to her.
Does anyone really believe that Labour are 7 points ahead of the Tories?
More or less. Some polls they are fighting it out closer, even swapping places and being a bit behind, but I think the Labour floor is (currently) higher than the Tories' when suffering a Reform hamstringing, so 5 or so.
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
“Grape soda” isn’t nice. You’d definitely pass.
I fermented 5 litres of Sainsbury’s grape juice last year. Usually cartons of fruit juice fement well into a strong wine. This was not good.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
Rather than being on here talking about opinion polls you need to be advising your boss to pay his bills.
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
The Liberals now have over 70 MPs, which is a damn sight better than the number the Tories would get with Opinium this evening!!!
Only took them 100 years to get that many MPs as well!
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
It would be rather hilarious if they were playing the really long game and found themselves as Official Opposition at the next election, more than 100 years later (although I think that requires a rather precise dividing of all other parties, and reliance on sneaking through the middle by tight margins in a lot of places).
That is an absolutely AWFUL poll for Kemi. For the Tories to be on just 16%, a rating that used to be about par for the LDs and 7% behind a deeply unpopular Starmer Labour and a massive 15% behind first placed Reform is very bad news indeed,
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
It's not Kemi, it's the Conservative brand that's trashed and will be for a long time.
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
The problem isn't so much that the Conservative brand has been trashed (though it has), it's that someone else has come along and nabbed two-thirds of the right-of-centre market.
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
The Conservatives best bet is to play the long game. Cling on to the wreckage of 2024 (and probably an even worse result in 2029) and let Farage and REF have their moment.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
You may be right Gin but that's probably what the Liberals thought in 1918.
The Liberals now have over 70 MPs, which is a damn sight better than the number the Tories would get with Opinium this evening!!!
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Good analysis. Farage needs overhauling and I would be very surprised if Badenoch can do that. Hunt (and I've met him and he's a bit odd) is still your best hope.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
We can only compare Badenoch to Mordaunt if we see Kemi hold a jewelled sword for hours while dressed as an air hostess.
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
“Grape soda” isn’t nice. You’d definitely pass.
I fermented 5 litres of Sainsbury’s grape juice last year. Usually cartons of fruit juice fement well into a strong wine. This was not good.
What about all the references to ordering “pizza and grape soda “ in the files then?
I refer you to the link provided. I note that people do eat pizza.
That article does nothing other than explain pizzagate. It doesn’t refute it considering the references within the latest release. Was Epstein a fan of pizza on his Island or a fan of pizza?
Pizzagate claimed that "cheese pizza" was a code for child pornography. There are references in the Epstein files to pizza. Are they talking about pizza or are they using "pizza" as a code? We don't know. Nothing actually suggests that it's a code beyond this prior idea. Everything else about pizzagate remains nonsense, like the pizza restaurant still has no basement, despite this being a key part of the conspiracy. There is a suggestion that maybe some elements of the Epstein story leaked into or influenced the pizzagate conspiracy, but we don't know.
They’re clearly using “pizza” to refer to children. It’s a Code. Ignore the restaurant. That’s nothing to do with it. They’re shitposting “pizza”. Or if you truly believe the emails relate to actual actual pizza being delivered to the island, then well, I dunno.
We all know very wealthy people on islands dont have chefs, they phone dominos
You think the private chef can't make pizza?
He wouldnt have it brought in which is what much of the excessive discussion of pizza in the emails is about
Lots of the references are just to eating pizza, with no mention of its origin. Would you like to give some examples that you think prove your case?
Harry Fisch < To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2018 18:46:34 +0000 Inline-Images: IMG-7847.JPG Holy shit. Chunky!!!! I forgot about that. What time do you want to get pizza and grape soda tomorrow?
Grape soda !
Sounds vile.
Yeah. Yeah, it is. But we’ll go on pretending this isn’t as bad as it really is. Because that’s safer for all of us.
Remember you're arguing with someone who thinks "conspiracy theorists" are worse than the perpetrators. I think because he doesn't like the light they shine on the elites he so desperately would like to be part of.
You deduced all that because I said the concept of Grape Soda was vile !!
“Grape soda” isn’t nice. You’d definitely pass.
I fermented 5 litres of Sainsbury’s grape juice last year. Usually cartons of fruit juice fement well into a strong wine. This was not good.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
I reckon Cleverly has promised him a run at a safe seat
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
I reckon Cleverly has promised him a run at a safe seat
Cleverly was loyal to Boris to the end, unlike say Kemi and Jenrick and Rishi and Braverman.
However, he also served Rishi loyally as he is serving Kemi, he is a decent chap
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
We can only compare Badenoch to Mordaunt if we see Kemi hold a jewelled sword for hours while dressed as an air hostess.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
We can only compare Badenoch to Mordaunt if we see Kemi hold a jewelled sword for hours while dressed as an air hostess.
That would be like comparing Maria Sharapova to Rosie Casals
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
We can only compare Badenoch to Mordaunt if we see Kemi hold a jewelled sword for hours while dressed as an air hostess.
You are not taking our earnest PB Tory friends entirely seriously, are you?
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
Mid term against the most unpopular government of recent times and the LOTO party only polls 16% while MPs defect regularly. It really is quite an astonishinly poor perfomrmance.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Kemi is niche
Some Tories salicate over her. Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
We can only compare Badenoch to Mordaunt if we see Kemi hold a jewelled sword for hours while dressed as an air hostess.
You are not taking our earnest PB Tory friends entirely seriously, are you?
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
I reckon Cleverly has promised him a run at a safe seat
Comments
I remember fondly his ramping of Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. Never change CHB.
It doesn’t say the dates the polling took place.I see it was the 4th. Plenty more since then. Need a week or so for it to take effect.
In the same period, Lab have had 19 once and 20 to 26 otherwise. So probably their best pollster
But I still don’t understand how the hell the Tories managed to have a black woman leader, and an Asian PM, before Labour have strayed from white male
I reckon Diane should make a triumphant return
I suppose at this stage we Tories should be grateful we are still ahead of the Greens and LDs so poor is that poll. Kemi has got to drastically shake things up and improve by May or if the local and devolved elections are as bad for the party as Opinium is tonight she will be gone and replaced by Cleverly
Obvs, there are a couple of caveats. One is that it takes time for events to feed into polling, and it's early days. The other is that (I think) Opinium make assumptions about swing back that might be optimistic in the current circumstances.
But the other thing is that the people following this story closely have already made their mind up about Starmer. Sensible normal people get ninety seconds of news and you're up to date. They may well be aware of the story for just long enough to file it as "Westminster bubble bullshit".
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
In fact it may be so tarnished the Conservative brand never recovers.
FoN. The PB gold standard! Can someone post Thursday's poll again?
Read the details and she is ahead of Farage
Its just noise around the long term trend and happens to be low end Con, but theyve been 16 to 18 with Opinium since May 2 2025, its a ridiculously unvaried number, esp as (for example) LD are -3 in just one fortnight (which is also just noise)
Opinium also has Farage now preferred as PM to Starmer but Starmer also still preferred as PM to Kemi
I don't know when the Conservatives had their last chance to strangle Faragism at birth, but they didn't take it.
Kemi has managed to go beyond that and lose another third of even those who stuck with the Tories in 2024!!!
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
Our pollsters have never seen a situation anything like what we have now; how can they confidently weight the polls?
Badenoch's ratings have been improving since the conference in October.
I wonder we're at the point that the Tories are just too damaged that whoever leads them the Tories are doomed.
I'm not sure even James Cleverly thinks about James Cleverly as much as our HYU.
Farage and REFORM will be a disaster, of course, and that *may* provide the Tories with the opportunity to come back - But we're probably talking at least 20 years out of power for CON and it's also possible that something even more extreme and horrible will emerge from the Right in the wake of Farage's failure... and then all bets are off for everyone.
The quotes from police in this are great.
I very rarely do threads on individual GB wide Westminster VI polls.
A number of initiatives are starting to impact, increase in min and living wage, lower inflation. Lower mortgage rates, free school meals.
Take the leaders out of the equation, Tories have nothing new to say. Reform are less popular the more they say and the Greens are saying things that are anything but green. The Lds moan about left and right.
Like we havent had 300 polls since May 2025 shiwing a broadly similar picture for a GE that hasnt been called and isnt due
I give up
If Opinium follow their usual form the fieldwork would have started around 6pm Wednesday.
It's what we've been doing since 2003 (Or in my case, 2006)
EMICIPM daily dosage
I will be loyal until May but if the Tories are third on seats won and NEV then Kemi will have to go.
Cleverly could at least shore up the 2024 Sunak vote in a way that she has so far failed to do and also win Labour and LD tactical voters to beat Reform in Tory held seats she has condemned as centrists.
Kemi's strategy of trashing the 'wet' centrist centre ground of the party and centrist swing voters while still failing to win back rightwing voters from Reform is just squeezing the life out of the Tory party. Only the most Tory of pure Tories are still voting Tory now if Opinium is correct
Boris simply had to go; had Paterson, Partygate, Pinchergate not got him, Pantsonfiregate would have. And if by some miracle he had survived that, something else was bound to come up, because Boris was Boris.
As for when Farage needed to be fired into the Sun, I suspect the key moment was much earlier than 2019.
Some Tories salicate over her.
Some Tories in the centre loathe her.
For the general public she's hardly exciting or appealing
Sounds like a Transvestite with a weirdly effected voice. Seems unable to answer any difficult questions without losing her rag, appears to be totally lacking in empathy or sympathy, solely obsessed with political point scoring.
Some of her allegedly improved pmqs have been like a pantomime performance.
The fact she's less hated than starmer is simply because the majority of the electorate really know very little about her, so they shrug their sgouldersm
She'd bomb utterly bomb in a 6 week election campaign.
Contrast her with Penny Mordaunt..
I'm not saying the Conservatives will come back What is happening at the moment could well be the end of the party founded in 1834 and the Tory Party before that.
It is existential for the Conservatives. They are in far more trouble than they were between 97-01, for example.
And none of it, I may add, is Kemi's fault. They are lucky to her.
30 20 20 13 13 is probably a good stab at where we are
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
Everybody piling in.
Over time this has been a consistently unreliable approach.
But still...
Or at least I would have done hade I ever spoken to Starmer.
However, he also served Rishi loyally as he is serving Kemi, he is a decent chap