politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll out
There’s a new phone poll out conducted for Lord Ashcroft, you can find it here.
Comments
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Strong Labour leads on values and understanding the needs of ordinary voters.0
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EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php0 -
The Labour schools lead has grown too.0
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I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!0 -
Others at 12% ? I think not.0
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It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
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I think you are working on a flawed assumption that UKIP voters are "tories on holiday".Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
They really aren't, plenty of them are quite anti tory to their core
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"For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite."
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.0 -
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!0 -
FPT
I think Devomax would be a great outcome. The Jockanese would get to be pretty much autonomous but within a single currency, defense, foreign set up.
And....it would imply EV4EL and end of Barnett.0 -
Mr. Pork, if a single poll is written in stone then you might as well give up on independence right now.
If that result is repeated then it may be meaningful, but taking a single result and declaring it The Truth is sillier than a mongoose in a fez.0 -
The problem for Labour is that, subject to events, the economy is on the turn and will be on the upward path from here to the election. Osborne will claim the credit and Labour have positioned themselves on the wrong side of the argument. Chuck in some electoral bribes in 2014 and there will be a feel better factor by the GE.Mick_Pork said:"For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite."
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.0 -
John Rentoul tweets: "The important thing about EdM's welfare speech: it's not on any front pages this morning."0
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Oh God please no! TSE I'll get you all the Cola you can drink at next DD's do (if I'm there) :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!0 -
Sadly that outcome only exists within the simple confines of empty space that occupies the void between a socialist's ears. 'Scotland rejects independence so the English must provide sweeties to stop the bairns' crying'.Patrick said:I think Devomax would be a great outcome,
No deal I am afraid: We don't compensate the SFA before every EUFA or FIFA tournament. Scotland have a chance to qualify as an independent nation but we ain't gonna' make good if they fail...!0 -
Nice comfort blanket for the lefties after their battle of Berlin on welfare this week..
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All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php0 -
I see the US has been collecting data on phone and email records of foreigners using US companies:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/us/nsa-verizon-calls.html?hp&_r=1&
I think some MP worth his or her salt will need to ask our government what it knows about this, and about how many UK citizens' information is being stored.0 -
Mr Dancer, kindly point me to where I said any such thing or put your straw man away with your fez wearing mongoose silliness.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, if a single poll is written in stone then you might as well give up on independence right now.
If that result is repeated then it may be meaningful, but taking a single result and declaring it The Truth is sillier than a mongoose in a fez.
You didn't grasp that my point about the kippers and FPTP was predicated on the polls being subject to change come a real vote? It should have been obvious as is the fact that some polling areas matter more than others such as the economy. Which is why Labour have a real problem on their hands. Osbrowne is an open goal they seem incapable of taking advantage of. Balls in particular. He just isn't very good. At all.
Cammie's ratings are hardly a massive shift either. They were a change to the negative, only one set but enough to underline that he is not the election winning machine that his close chums seem to think he is if 2010 hadn't already tipped them off.
The future leadership speculation will happen regardless of one poll because it already has.
The realisation that Cammie's personal rating is not soaring above the tory brand will just fuel it. That's not the same as saying Cammie will be toppled before the election as I specifically indicated he would still feel pretty damn safe and with good reason.
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I thought the Labour GE campaign started this week.Blue_rog said:The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
Do you really think the Tories should be giving Labour a one-year head start?0 -
Knocking copy can work, but it is very tough to get right. Cameron appears to be an adequate PM, given the hand he picked up, but his track record as a politician is poor. Using up political capital on gay marriage was soft.Blue_rog said:
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
His line on an EU referendum is entirely implausible. To claim that he is going to try to re-negotiate Britain's deal with the EU, and then recommend we stay in, is daft. He has fatally undermined his own negotiating position. No barrow-boy would make that mistake.0 -
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php0 -
You are spoiling us!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
Did you see the newly published Scottish Social Attitudes survey:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1111766/the option not on the table final.pdf
Wasn't Salmond clever to box Cameron into only posing one question.....
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Mr. Pork, fez-wearing requires a hyphen.
Your post indicated that a single poll meant Cameron's USP [as you termed it] had gone.0 -
Wishful thinking by les grenouilles... The Chinese know who voted for (France, Italy, Spain) and against (Germany, UK) the solar panel tariffs....they are past masters at 'divide & rule'...Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
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Meanwhile, guess which country is behind the stalling of EU-Canada negotiations?Alanbrooke said:
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/0 -
Vote No get nothing.CarlottaVance said:
You are spoiling us!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
Did you see the newly published Scottish Social Attitudes survey:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1111766/the option not on the table final.pdf
Wasn't Salmond clever to box Cameron into only posing one question.....
You think that's going to prove an effective unionist tactic for those who want more devolution do you?
*chuckles*
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Hilary Benn about to be knifed ?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robertcolvile/100220689/labours-house-of-cards-just-came-crashing-down/
"Until I read the Benn piece, I assumed that Labour was planning to disguise from the voters of the Home Counties the fact that its economic strategy basically revolved around filling their villages with bulldozers.
I'd even planned to write a blog or two drawing attention to the fact, and pointing out that if you value the view from your garden, it might just possibly be worth voting Tory rather than Ukip in order to keep the blighter out.
But now I'm genuinely baffled. Put simply, Ed Balls hasn't got a cat's chance in hell of getting his homes built – unless he passes rules that exempt his various New Ballsburgs, or whatever he calls his workers' palaces, from the regulations Mr Benn is promising to reinstate, thereby undermining their entire purpose.
I know the Tories have their omnishambolic moments, but even they wouldn't adopt such ludicrously contradictory policies, let alone parade them before the national media in the same bleedin' week.
Hence that clanging sound. Either Benn is lying to the voters, or he and Balls have failed to conduct the most elementary discussions about what the other is proposing. Either way, if such a party is fit for government and ready to rule, I'm a Dutchman's uncle."0 -
I feel that now would be a suitable time to remind pbers that the invasion of France remains part of the Morris Dancer manifesto.0
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It sort of depends what the Chinese are aiming for. A small slap on German wrists to remind the Teutons to keep their french vassal in order might not be a bad move.CarlottaVance said:
Wishful thinking by les grenouilles... The Chinese know who voted for (France, Italy, Spain) and against (Germany, UK) the solar panel tariffs....they are past masters at 'divide & rule'...Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php0 -
I'm not in favour of those polls because you can read too much into them depending on your viewpoint. Just look at the support for status quo.CarlottaVance said:
You are spoiling us!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
Did you see the newly published Scottish Social Attitudes survey:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1111766/the option not on the table final.pdf
Wasn't Salmond clever to box Cameron into only posing one question.....
Anyhoo.
If Henry hasn't sent me his piece by 2pm the afternoon thread will be about the closet racists.
"But by far the biggest gap comes when respondents are asked whether or not it is important that actor who plays the Doctor, a thousand-year-old time-travelling alien from the planet Gallifrey, be white. Just 5 per cent of Lib Dems thought it was; 50 per cent of members of the libertarian, non-racist party seeking Britain's withdrawal from the EU do."
http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/06/lib-dems-jon-pertwee-and-ukip-wants-straight-doctor
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would it be a large chunk of real estate currently occupied by Gauloise puffing strikers who think the world owes them a living ?Socrates said:
Meanwhile, guess which country is behind the stalling of EU-Canada negotiations?Alanbrooke said:
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/0 -
I also see that paedophilia advocate Daniel Cohn-Bendit just shared the "European leader" award:
http://www.euractiv.com/future-eu/verhofstadt-cohn-bendit-get-euro-news-5283730 -
must have had the Belgian vote nailed on.Socrates said:I also see that paedophilia advocate Daniel Cohn-Bendit just shared the "European leader" award:
http://www.euractiv.com/future-eu/verhofstadt-cohn-bendit-get-euro-news-5283730 -
Yes, it was not entirely clear how Benn's plan was going to accelerate - rather than slow down - housebuilding....TGOHF said:Hilary Benn about to be knifed ?
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Boo.
Henry's just sent me his article.0 -
That's not very nice, Mr. Eagles. Poor Mr. Manson.0
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Vote 'yes' get something you don't want....yeah, that'll work!Mick_Pork said:
Vote No get nothing.CarlottaVance said:
You are spoiling us!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I think I might do another thread on Scotland today.Jonathan said:
It can't. Small matter of the Scot Ref.Blue_rog said:I don't think the Tories need worry, or indeed can do anything, about the UKP polling until after the Euros next year. I would expect UKiP to perform extremely well there both for the Euro elections and the locals that fall on the same day.
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
Did you see the newly published Scottish Social Attitudes survey:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1111766/the option not on the table final.pdf
Wasn't Salmond clever to box Cameron into only posing one question.....
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I know.Morris_Dancer said:That's not very nice, Mr. Eagles. Poor Mr. Manson.
It's another very good piece by Mr Manson.
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Labour look as if they are odds on now to win the 2015 GE with a landslide. Even if Labour are not as trusted on economics, the Tories may be permanently damaged by recent issues. Who would want to vote for the 'swivel eyed loon' party. If you are anti EU, then the obvious choice is UKIP, as Cameron wants a referendum, but will campaign for a yes vote.0
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I'm sure we can return to Doctor Who on a slow news day - I mean, look at the impact of ED'S BIG SPEECH on today's front pages....TheScreamingEagles said:
I know.Morris_Dancer said:That's not very nice, Mr. Eagles. Poor Mr. Manson.
It's another very good piece by Mr Manson.
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All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx0 -
One for TSE in the hopes we don't venture into Scotland this afternoon.
An American photographer on vacation was inside a church in Oldham taking photographs when he noticed a golden telephone mounted on the wall with a sign that read '£10,000 per call'.
The American, being intrigued, asked a priest who was strolling by what the telephone was used for. The priest replied that it was a direct line to heaven and that for £10,000 you could talk to God. The American thanked the priest and went along his way.
Next stop was in Manchester... There, at a very large cathedral, he saw the same golden telephone with the same sign under it. He wondered if this was the same kind of telephone he saw in Oldham and he asked a nearby nun what its purpose was. She told him that it was a direct line to heaven and that for £10,000 he could talk to God.
'O.K., thank you,' said the American.
He then travelled to Blackburn, Darwen, Burnley, Rochdale and Littleborough. In every church he saw the same golden telephone with the same '£10,000 per call' sign under it. The American, upon leaving Lancashire decided to travel to Yorkshire to see if Yorkshiremen had the same phone.
He arrived in Todmorden, and again, in the first church he entered, there was the same golden telephone, but this time the sign under it read '50 pence per call.'
The American was surprised so he asked the priest about the sign. 'Father, I've travelled all over Lancashire and I've seen this same golden telephone in many churches. I'm told that it is a direct line to heaven, but in Lancashire the price was £10,000 per call. Why is it so cheap here?'
The priest smiled and answered, 'You're in Yorkshire now, son. It's a local call.'
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U.K. Energy and Climate Change Minister Greg Barker said investment in solar power may be jeopardized by European Union tariffs on panels from China and that Britain is pushing for a “sensible” agreement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/u-k-solar-investment-jeopardized-by-eu-tariffs-on-china.html
We have some great little alternative energy firms in the UK, but, just like our finance sector, the EU doesn't give a damn about them. We are way too dependent on not just the economic outlook but the political whims of the EU. This is only going to get worse as the core integrates. We'll leave within the next twenty years anyway - can't we just do it sooner before we miss so many opportunities with developing markets before they reach maturity?0 -
That is a fiercely depressing article. The Commission truly is another planet.Socrates said:I also see that paedophilia advocate Daniel Cohn-Bendit just shared the "European leader" award:
http://www.euractiv.com/future-eu/verhofstadt-cohn-bendit-get-euro-news-528373
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So does swivel-eyed as Cammie might tell you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, fez-wearing requires a hyphen.
His USP requires his personal ratings to be well above the tory brand for it to be effective, not just near parity. It's about the relative position not just this one snapshot. This indicates at the very least the tory brand and he are simply not miles apart. That polling will change does not make all changes insignificant.
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John Rentoul spots the Labour Shadow Cab split:
"Thursday, EdM: Build More Houses
http://labourlist.org/2013/06/full-text-ed-miliband-speech-a-one-nation-plan-for-social-security-reform/ …
Friday, Hilary Benn: Give Locals Veto on Planning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10104826/Hilary-Benn-The-Coalition-have-got-it-wrong-over-planning.html …0 -
Really ? I'd say this is now almost as good as it's going to get for Labour.hucks67 said:Labour look as if they are odds on now to win the 2015 GE with a landslide. Even if Labour are not as trusted on economics, the Tories may be permanently damaged by recent issues. Who would want to vote for the 'swivel eyed loon' party. If you are anti EU, then the obvious choice is UKIP, as Cameron wants a referendum, but will campaign for a yes vote.
1. the economy is on the mend
2. Ed isn't far enough ahead in the polls
3. there's no more contoversial legislation
4. Ed's policies so far have underwhelmed
5. there's an election budget to come
Labour's chances are all dependent on UKIP peeling off votes and since UKIP hasn't had much scrutiny it could all fall apart. Tough one for labour - attack UKIP and help the Conservatives or leave them alone and risk losing traditional votes.
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How did you guess?Alanbrooke said:
would it be a large chunk of real estate currently occupied by Gauloise puffing strikers who think the world owes them a living ?Socrates said:
Meanwhile, guess which country is behind the stalling of EU-Canada negotiations?Alanbrooke said:
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/
France and Ireland currently supply the bulk of Europe’s beef, dating back to the collapse of the U.K. industry after its mad cow crisis. Farmers wield a lot of political clout in both countries, and Brinkmann told reporters that what Canada was asking for would be "suicidal" for farmers in these countries.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/06/03/pol-beef-canada-europe-trade-talks.html?cmp=rss0 -
Wonder why this point was made by the Tory Minister, not the Lib Dem Secretary of State, Ed Davey....?Socrates said:U.K. Energy and Climate Change Minister Greg Barker said investment in solar power may be jeopardized by European Union tariffs on panels from China and that Britain is pushing for a “sensible” agreement.
0 -
Not university students, but they do give a toss about low skilled individuals from the subcontinent using FE colleges simply as a route into the country. Why do you think student immigration from China is still rising, while it is falling from India and Pakistan?tim said:
It's all students, nobody gives a toss about students.Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx0 -
Good morning.
OT.
Putting these figures through at electoral calculus leads to a Labour majority of 106, and this is another poll that shows UKIP getting zero seats.
We all know that UNS is now a busted flush with the percentages that UKIP are now getting so why keep repeating the inane zero seats for UKIP, mantra? I'm betting 20+ seats for UKIP if they keep the percentages around 18%, which seems to be the average of recent polling.0 -
A test for UKIP . Recently elected County Councillor for St Mary's ward Kidderminster on Worcs CC , Tony Baker has sadly died . May result was
UKIP 595
Con 545
Lab 507
ICHC 336
Liberal 140
Green 46
The division was Conservative held prior to May and Labour held prior to 2009 .0 -
No, I used the Washington Times. They are not a propaganda site, unlike your sources like "Press TV". The terms "stock" and "flow" for is not extreme, but standard among people discussing data types of any time.tim said:
"The stock"Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx
Your trip to the extreme right is not pleasant.
Now you're using far right anti Obama conspiracy sites to trawl I suggest your inevitable destination has been reached0 -
Thats the good news from the polls - the Milishambles timebomb can tick on with the left wallowing in their poll lead jacuzzi.CarlottaVance said:
John Rentoul spots the Labour Shadow Cab split:
"Thursday, EdM: Build More Houses
http://labourlist.org/2013/06/full-text-ed-miliband-speech-a-one-nation-plan-for-social-security-reform/ …
Friday, Hilary Benn: Give Locals Veto on Planning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10104826/Hilary-Benn-The-Coalition-have-got-it-wrong-over-planning.html …0 -
When is the by-election?MarkSenior said:A test for UKIP . Recently elected County Councillor for St Mary's ward Kidderminster on Worcs CC , Tony Baker has sadly died . May result was
UKIP 595
Con 545
Lab 507
ICHC 336
Liberal 140
Green 46
The division was Conservative held prior to May and Labour held prior to 2009 .0 -
UKIP will be a factor. But also the Tories will suffer as a result of tactical voting by Lib Dems supporting Labour and Labour backing Lib Dems. At the moment, the Tories don't stand a chance in winning in areas of the country, where they need to be making progress in order to achieve a majority.Alanbrooke said:
Really ? I'd say this is now almost as good as it's going to get for Labour.hucks67 said:Labour look as if they are odds on now to win the 2015 GE with a landslide. Even if Labour are not as trusted on economics, the Tories may be permanently damaged by recent issues. Who would want to vote for the 'swivel eyed loon' party. If you are anti EU, then the obvious choice is UKIP, as Cameron wants a referendum, but will campaign for a yes vote.
1. the economy is on the mend
2. Ed isn't far enough ahead in the polls
3. there's no more contoversial legislation
4. Ed's policies so far have underwhelmed
5. there's an election budget to come
Labour's chances are all dependent on UKIP peeling off votes and since UKIP hasn't had much scrutiny it could all fall apart. Tough one for labour - attack UKIP and help the Conservatives or leave them alone and risk losing traditional votes.
The only way the Tories could win in my opinion is to form an alliance with UKIP, removing Cameron if he does not support backing a NO vote in a referendum.
0 -
tim - if Lynton is so awful as you claim
1) Why does your Labour crib sheet recommend attacking him - surely best to keep quiet ?
2) How did Boris get re-elected ?
Courage and shuffle the cards....
0 -
Do you actually mean you are seriously entertaining bets on UKIP getting 20+ seats? Or do you mean that you would really like UKIP to get 20+ seats? Fwiw I think UKIP would be crazy to target 20+ seats and if they dont target properly they wont win any.MikeK said:I'm betting 20+ seats for UKIP if they keep the percentages around 18%, which seems to be the average of recent polling.
0 -
Yawn. It's not a fixation or fundamentalism or irrational to be concerned about mass immigration, although I'd love to put you on the campaign trail representing Labour's view that it is. Most of the British public are concerned by it, and it's one of the leading political issues, even by Mike's unprompted test, and calling little old ladies "bigots" for doing so is just representative of nasty Labour scumbags. The Tories have lost their immigration lead not by taking positive action on non-EU immigration, but by failing to do anything about EU immigration.tim said:
In your head everyone is as fixated as you are.Socrates said:
Not university students, but they do give a toss about low skilled individuals from the subcontinent using FE colleges simply as a route into the country. Why do you think student immigration from China is still rising, while it is falling from India and Pakistan?tim said:
It's all students, nobody gives a toss about students.Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx
And of course some are, but the Tories can never please them as the polling is showing
Exactly the same mistake that the Republicans made in the USA, try to please the fundamentalists and lose the centre.
And of course the existence of UKIP makes the strategy of pandering to the irrational fears even more idiotic.
Look at the polling, the Tories have lost a 38% lead on immigration by trying to appeal to bigotry.0 -
Ah, tim, does your anti Bennite loathing extend to Hilary? Difficult to reconcile his pseudo Nimbyism with your 'direction' that Councils must massively expand housebuilding or suffer the financial consequences, isn't it?0
-
the death has only just been announced so the by election will come after the Stourport by election which UKIP are likely to lose on June 27th .MikeK said:
When is the by-election?MarkSenior said:A test for UKIP . Recently elected County Councillor for St Mary's ward Kidderminster on Worcs CC , Tony Baker has sadly died . May result was
UKIP 595
Con 545
Lab 507
ICHC 336
Liberal 140
Green 46
The division was Conservative held prior to May and Labour held prior to 2009 .
0 -
two years out from a GE the polls are largely noise. Post indyref 2014 they will start to mean something. In the meantime it's the movement in the economy which is the key thing to watch and the economy will be in recovery mode in 2 years time.hucks67 said:
UKIP will be a factor. But also the Tories will suffer as a result of tactical voting by Lib Dems supporting Labour and Labour backing Lib Dems. At the moment, the Tories don't stand a chance in winning in areas of the country, where they need to be making progress in order to achieve a majority.Alanbrooke said:
Really ? I'd say this is now almost as good as it's going to get for Labour.hucks67 said:Labour look as if they are odds on now to win the 2015 GE with a landslide. Even if Labour are not as trusted on economics, the Tories may be permanently damaged by recent issues. Who would want to vote for the 'swivel eyed loon' party. If you are anti EU, then the obvious choice is UKIP, as Cameron wants a referendum, but will campaign for a yes vote.
1. the economy is on the mend
2. Ed isn't far enough ahead in the polls
3. there's no more contoversial legislation
4. Ed's policies so far have underwhelmed
5. there's an election budget to come
Labour's chances are all dependent on UKIP peeling off votes and since UKIP hasn't had much scrutiny it could all fall apart. Tough one for labour - attack UKIP and help the Conservatives or leave them alone and risk losing traditional votes.
The only way the Tories could win in my opinion is to form an alliance with UKIP, removing Cameron if he does not support backing a NO vote in a referendum.
As for tactical voting I suspect it will be less prevalent than in the past due to the LD's "betrayal" in 2010, labour already having lefty LDs in its numbers and the LDs no longer being the home of the protest vote.0 -
"One of the biggest questions in today’s European politics is what price Germany is willing to pay to keep the UK in the EU. One school of thought – which strangely sees an over-representation of retired Europhiles and hardcore Eurosceptics – claims virtually no price at all. Berlin will choose Paris – and Warsaw – any day of the week. David Cameron might as well throw in the towel now.
Well, the past week may have given Berlin a taste of what an EU without Britain could look like. And it ain’t pretty.'
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100024783/hey-berlin-this-is-what-an-eu-without-britain-would-look-like/0 -
I'm of the view that it's impossible to know what's going to happen in May 2015 at this time. Yes, the economy is finally turning but that's a long way from individuals "feeling" better about their personal finances and as others have said elsewhere, the shadow of the impact of rising interest rates and the bond market does exist.Alanbrooke said:
Really ? I'd say this is now almost as good as it's going to get for Labour.hucks67 said:Labour look as if they are odds on now to win the 2015 GE with a landslide. Even if Labour are not as trusted on economics, the Tories may be permanently damaged by recent issues. Who would want to vote for the 'swivel eyed loon' party. If you are anti EU, then the obvious choice is UKIP, as Cameron wants a referendum, but will campaign for a yes vote.
1. the economy is on the mend
2. Ed isn't far enough ahead in the polls
3. there's no more contoversial legislation
4. Ed's policies so far have underwhelmed
5. there's an election budget to come
Labour's chances are all dependent on UKIP peeling off votes and since UKIP hasn't had much scrutiny it could all fall apart. Tough one for labour - attack UKIP and help the Conservatives or leave them alone and risk losing traditional votes.
I don't think the vast majority of the electorate have given Labour's policies any thought but we are approaching the point when Ed Miliband will need to be able to answer the question "so why should I vote Labour?"
Labour can't expect to win simply by not being the Coalition though it's fair to say that in many countries those who have imposed austerity policies have had precious little in the way of thanks. In the end, there have to be positive reasons for voting Labour and that means creating a clear sense of how a Labour Britain post-2015 might be better.
As Allister Heath argued yesterday, the problems are in the medium term economically though he, like so many others on the Right, seem to view shale gas as the solution to every problem. On that basis, the most powerful nation in mid-21st century Europe is going to be Poland (again).0 -
Right, because, as a free-trader, humanitarian interventionist, pro-choice, gay rights supporting secularist, I'm just like the protectionist, isolationist, Christian Right Buchanan.tim said:
Buchananite if you prefer.Socrates said:Moderators, I thought we had a new rule about personal attacks? Surely, tim alleging I'm part of the "extreme right" counts? Do I have to be similarly abusive back for you to take action?
I wonder if you're even capable of adding up sometimes.0 -
The Tories losing the lead on immigration is largely because ofW UKIP being more hardline, and also both the other parties acquiesing to the Tory position. They are losing the lead because they have won the debate.Socrates said:
Yawn. It's not a fixation or fundamentalism or irrational to be concerned about mass immigration, although I'd love to put you on the campaign trail representing Labour's view that it is. Most of the British public are concerned by it, and it's one of the leading political issues, even by Mike's unprompted test, and calling little old ladies "bigots" for doing so is just representative of nasty Labour scumbags. The Tories have lost their immigration lead not by taking positive action on non-EU immigration, but by failing to do anything about EU immigration.tim said:
In your head everyone is as fixated as you are.Socrates said:
Not university students, but they do give a toss about low skilled individuals from the subcontinent using FE colleges simply as a route into the country. Why do you think student immigration from China is still rising, while it is falling from India and Pakistan?tim said:
It's all students, nobody gives a toss about students.Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx
And of course some are, but the Tories can never please them as the polling is showing
Exactly the same mistake that the Republicans made in the USA, try to please the fundamentalists and lose the centre.
And of course the existence of UKIP makes the strategy of pandering to the irrational fears even more idiotic.
Look at the polling, the Tories have lost a 38% lead on immigration by trying to appeal to bigotry.
Who, apart from tim, wants unselective immigration to increase?0 -
Off-topic:
Is there a market for the return of a low-viz, no-entry avatar on this site within the next 24-hours? I may be tempted to suggest there is value in such an event....0 -
Right. It's like selling a car that's better than a competitor because it has great fuel economy. Then a new startup firm creates a car that has even better miles to the gallon, and starts to win major market share. tim thinks the response to this should be to start making cars that are more expensive to run. It's imbecilic.foxinsoxuk said:
The Tories losing the lead on immigration is largely because ofW UKIP being more hardline, and also both the other parties acquiesing to the Tory position. They are losing the lead because they have won the debate.Socrates said:
Yawn. It's not a fixation or fundamentalism or irrational to be concerned about mass immigration, although I'd love to put you on the campaign trail representing Labour's view that it is. Most of the British public are concerned by it, and it's one of the leading political issues, even by Mike's unprompted test, and calling little old ladies "bigots" for doing so is just representative of nasty Labour scumbags. The Tories have lost their immigration lead not by taking positive action on non-EU immigration, but by failing to do anything about EU immigration.tim said:
In your head everyone is as fixated as you are.Socrates said:
Not university students, but they do give a toss about low skilled individuals from the subcontinent using FE colleges simply as a route into the country. Why do you think student immigration from China is still rising, while it is falling from India and Pakistan?tim said:
It's all students, nobody gives a toss about students.Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx
And of course some are, but the Tories can never please them as the polling is showing
Exactly the same mistake that the Republicans made in the USA, try to please the fundamentalists and lose the centre.
And of course the existence of UKIP makes the strategy of pandering to the irrational fears even more idiotic.
Look at the polling, the Tories have lost a 38% lead on immigration by trying to appeal to bigotry.
Who, apart from tim, wants unselective immigration to increase?0 -
I'd accuse you of taking Seth's posts far too seriously except you telling say "feel better" instead of "feel good". Things aren't going to change that much even with Osbrowne's attempts at a mini house-price boom and you know it.Alanbrooke said:
The problem for Labour is that, subject to events, the economy is on the turn and will be on the upward path from here to the election. Osborne will claim the credit and Labour have positioned themselves on the wrong side of the argument. Chuck in some electoral bribes in 2014 and there will be a feel better factor by the GE.Mick_Pork said:"For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite."
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.
As for Osbrowne taking the credit, only if Cammie thinks it's a good idea to have Osbrowne telling the voters they've never had it so good, which I doubt. He kept Osbrowne away from the cameras as much as possible during the 2010 campaign for a reason and that reason has hardly decreased.
It's not going to be about convoluted economic arguments it's going to be about trust and credibility. It's going to be about whether the voter trusts labour again after the banking crash and whether Osbrowne and Cammie or little Ed and Balls have the credibility required to be given charge of the economy after 2015.
Balls and little Ed had Osbrowne's omnishambles and the labour lead handed to them on a plate yet they are nowhere near some of the leads we've see in previous electoral cycles. That's telling. A lead is still a lead (and it's still a good one) but after all the swivel-eyed loon, banging on about Europe splits and bumbling lately it's becoming clear that the kippers and the tories are the only thing little Ed can be thankful for since he is clearly not the author of his own party fortunes. To be fair few opposition leaders are but to rely so heavily on others mistakes is very dangerous. You are then totally at the mercy of events yourself.
Few doubt the kipper vote will fall heavily come an election. Given that volatile ingredient if I were little Ed I wouldn't be happy with Balls performance lately up against Osbrowne.
0 -
Ahem, Me (and Junior, but he should justify this for himself)! Migration is not the issue; it is benefits.foxinsoxuk said:Who, apart from tim, wants unselective immigration to increase?*
A free-market in labour is being distorted by a use of subsidies for political reasons. With the EU forcing Westminster to offer benefits-for-all it is time for England to sort out this [largely Scots and Welsh-inspired] mess...!
* Increase should be clarified. The international labour market should work towards the point at which supply and demand are matched.0 -
Let me put it this way Neil. I expect that by the GE, UKIP will be getting considerably higher than 18% of the vote; perhaps 22/24% range. I also know that the party will target certain seats. I also expect theat the UKIP vote won't be spread evenly over the whole country and will be weaker in some parts and stronger in others, and thats why I expect 20+ seats in the GE.Neil said:
Do you actually mean you are seriously entertaining bets on UKIP getting 20+ seats? Or do you mean that you would really like UKIP to get 20+ seats? Fwiw I think UKIP would be crazy to target 20+ seats and if they dont target properly they wont win any.MikeK said:I'm betting 20+ seats for UKIP if they keep the percentages around 18%, which seems to be the average of recent polling.
Of course the caveat is that UKIP continue to grow at the present pace. The future will tell.
And now I'm off to Trafalgar Square.
0 -
If you don't try to renegotiate (and I am sceptical whether we will get anything meaningful) then the argument from the 'in' side is 'we can make it better'. The only way to defeat that argument is to test it. And may be I'm wrong, and we manage to renegotiate a fantastic deal.david_kendrick1 said:
Knocking copy can work, but it is very tough to get right. Cameron appears to be an adequate PM, given the hand he picked up, but his track record as a politician is poor. Using up political capital on gay marriage was soft.Blue_rog said:
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
His line on an EU referendum is entirely implausible. To claim that he is going to try to re-negotiate Britain's deal with the EU, and then recommend we stay in, is daft. He has fatally undermined his own negotiating position. No barrow-boy would make that mistake.0 -
Nice article. BOOCarlottaVance said:"One of the biggest questions in today’s European politics is what price Germany is willing to pay to keep the UK in the EU. One school of thought – which strangely sees an over-representation of retired Europhiles and hardcore Eurosceptics – claims virtually no price at all. Berlin will choose Paris – and Warsaw – any day of the week. David Cameron might as well throw in the towel now.
Well, the past week may have given Berlin a taste of what an EU without Britain could look like. And it ain’t pretty.'
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100024783/hey-berlin-this-is-what-an-eu-without-britain-would-look-like/0 -
"The field work was between 31 May and 2 June 2013, 2,060 adults were interviewed online, and 1,007 by telephone."
A sample size of 3067, using two different sampling methods. 2.3% MoE at 99% confidence, what a fantastic sample size. On that alone this poll is more accurate than most.
Lord Ashcroft's fieldwork and sample size are always fab.
It also matches other polls reasonably well so theres a nice sanity check in there.
Con down 6. UKIP up 6. Thats the big news from this poll, the UKIP bounce is most certainly real.0 -
What odds will you give me against that for a £10 bet?MikeK said:Good morning.
OT.
Putting these figures through at electoral calculus leads to a Labour majority of 106, and this is another poll that shows UKIP getting zero seats.
We all know that UNS is now a busted flush with the percentages that UKIP are now getting so why keep repeating the inane zero seats for UKIP, mantra? I'm betting 20+ seats for UKIP if they keep the percentages around 18%, which seems to be the average of recent polling.0 -
And meanwhile there has been an EFTA-Canada Free Trade Agreement since 2009.Socrates said:
Meanwhile, guess which country is behind the stalling of EU-Canada negotiations?Alanbrooke said:
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/0 -
And we were told we could join NAFTA "within weeks" in 1999.Richard_Tyndall said:
And meanwhile there has been an EFTA-Canada Free Trade Agreement since 2009.Socrates said:
Meanwhile, guess which country is behind the stalling of EU-Canada negotiations?Alanbrooke said:
I must admit I didn't get the rationale of the solar panels. The biggest european producer is of SPs is Germany AIUI so if they were against a war who was pushing it ? Probably they're trying to protect some frenchman building three panels a year in a cowshed in the Auvergne.Socrates said:
All after the EU decided to slam Chinese solar panels after the British and Germans voted against. We clearly have very little influence against the protectionist bloc, even if the Germans are in our side. We're better off going our own way. The "weight" of the EU behind us that is supposed to help us in trade negotiations is actually a millstone around our neck.Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/0 -
Mick I'm hardly an Osborne fan but the narrative is going his way between now and the GE subject to events. The economy is on the mend and he will have money to put into May 2015 paypackets. That he has done little to assist recovery is irrelevant, he will sing the song that he has weathered hard times, the deficit is reducing and the economy is picking up.Mick_Pork said:
I'd accuse you of taking Seth's posts far too seriously except you telling say "feel better" instead of "feel good". Things aren't going to change that much even with Osbrowne's attempts at a mini house-price boom and you know it.Alanbrooke said:
The problem for Labour is that, subject to events, the economy is on the turn and will be on the upward path from here to the election. Osborne will claim the credit and Labour have positioned themselves on the wrong side of the argument. Chuck in some electoral bribes in 2014 and there will be a feel better factor by the GE.Mick_Pork said:"For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite."
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.
As for Osbrowne taking the credit, only if Cammie thinks it's a good idea to have Osbrowne telling the voters they've never had it so good, which I doubt. He kept Osbrowne away from the cameras as much as possible during the 2010 campaign for a reason and that reason has hardly decreased.
It's not going to be about convoluted economic arguments it's going to be about trust and credibility. It's going to be about whether the voter trusts labour again after the banking crash and whether Osbrowne and Cammie or little Ed and Balls have the credibility required to be given charge of the economy after 2015.
Balls and little Ed had Osbrowne's omnishambles and the labour lead handed to them on a plate yet they are nowhere near some of the leads we've see in previous electoral cycles. That's telling. A lead is still a lead (and it's still a good one) but after all the swivel-eyed loon, banging on about Europe splits and bumbling lately it's becoming clear that the kippers and the tories are the only thing little Ed can be thankful for since he is clearly not the author of his own party fortunes. To be fair few opposition leaders are but to rely so heavily on others mistakes is very dangerous. You are then totally at the mercy of events yourself.
Few doubt the kipper vote will fall heavily come an election. Given that volatile ingredient if I were little Ed I wouldn't be happy with Balls performance lately up against Osbrowne.
He doesn't even have to be a good CoE he just has to be better than the Eds and by 2015 their idea of throwing more money at the problem will just look like the day before yesterday's idea. The Eds have called the economy argument wrong. They've accepted the need for austerity too late, they still refuse to apologise for the horrendous mess labour left and they have advanced no serious alternative to challenge Osborne for 3 years. Osborne has some massive holes in his defences but Labour are not in a position to exploit them. The LDs will be in a better position on the economy than labour in 2015.0 -
Och Soccy - tim is just trolling when he claims he would invite the entire population of Somalia to come and live in his house to improve the economy - he wants you to argue so he can sqweam and sqweam "racist".
Anything to stop the thread discussing the huge rEd (and tim) flip flop on benefits.
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It is only recently that the main parties have started to see UKIP as a threat.
Leading up the general election, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem will all be attacking UKIP because UKIP is a threat to each of them.
Negative electioneering is known to work and UKIP supporters will be seen a a soft target who can be dislodged. UKIP support at the general election will suffer as a consequence and be less than current sample polls show.0 -
Clearly, irrational fears:tim said:
Well unless the Tories want to end free movement of labour in the EU they should stop ramping fears and playing into UKIPs handsfoxinsoxuk said:
The Tories losing the lead on immigration is largely because ofW UKIP being more hardline, and also both the other parties acquiesing to the Tory position. They are losing the lead because they have won the debate.Socrates said:
Yawn. It's not a fixation or fundamentalism or irrational to be concerned about mass immigration, although I'd love to put you on the campaign trail representing Labour's view that it is. Most of the British public are concerned by it, and it's one of the leading political issues, even by Mike's unprompted test, and calling little old ladies "bigots" for doing so is just representative of nasty Labour scumbags. The Tories have lost their immigration lead not by taking positive action on non-EU immigration, but by failing to do anything about EU immigration.tim said:
In your head everyone is as fixated as you are.Socrates said:
Not university students, but they do give a toss about low skilled individuals from the subcontinent using FE colleges simply as a route into the country. Why do you think student immigration from China is still rising, while it is falling from India and Pakistan?tim said:
It's all students, nobody gives a toss about students.Socrates said:
All the pain to slowly rebuild the cohesiveness of British neighbourhoods? You realise that immigration is just a flow, and most people's perceptions of the issue are based on the stock.tim said:
@robfordmancs: Despite sharp fall in immigration, new Ashcroft poll shows Con ratings on imm have collapsed. All that pain for what? http://t.co/buuVIGe4xz
@georgeeaton: Despite latest crackdown, Tory lead of 10 on immigration (Jan '13) has fallen to 0. http://t.co/pfMqzyZzgx
And of course some are, but the Tories can never please them as the polling is showing
Exactly the same mistake that the Republicans made in the USA, try to please the fundamentalists and lose the centre.
And of course the existence of UKIP makes the strategy of pandering to the irrational fears even more idiotic.
Look at the polling, the Tories have lost a 38% lead on immigration by trying to appeal to bigotry.
Who, apart from tim, wants unselective immigration to increase?
Surely event the PB Tories can see that
As for losing the lead by winning the debate, oh dear, they've lost the right on Romanians by stoking fears they could never calm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120049/Romanian-gangs-cashpoint-robberies-rake-30m-year.html
http://www.voice-online.co.uk/article/cash-machine-crime-has-tripled0 -
Alanbrooke said:
EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
My understanding is that the Chinese threat to retaliate with tariffs on wine are EU wide, not just France.
So similarly any new tariffs on cars would also be EU wide, not just Germany - so include UK car exports to China.
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yes we'll be dragged in to it too unless we can cobble some face saving action together. The EU at its best.David_Evershed said:Alanbrooke said:EU Trade war with China hotting up - german cars next for tarriffs after french wines.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
My understanding is that the Chinese threat to retaliate with tariffs on wine are EU wide, not just France.
So similarly any new tariffs on cars would also be EU wide, not just Germany - so include UK car exports to China.0 -
Going his AAA way I presume? He's a liability regardless of the economic background even if it does improve a bit. That will not change.Alanbrooke said:
Mick I'm hardly an Osborne fan but the narrative is going his way between now and the GE subject to events. The economy is on the mend and he will have money to put into May 2015 paypackets. That he has done little to assist recovery is irrelevant, he will sing the song that he has weathered hard times, the deficit is reducing and the economy is picking up.Mick_Pork said:
I'd accuse you of taking Seth's posts far too seriously except you telling say "feel better" instead of "feel good". Things aren't going to change that much even with Osbrowne's attempts at a mini house-price boom and you know it.Alanbrooke said:
The problem for Labour is that, subject to events, the economy is on the turn and will be on the upward path from here to the election. Osborne will claim the credit and Labour have positioned themselves on the wrong side of the argument. Chuck in some electoral bribes in 2014 and there will be a feel better factor by the GE.Mick_Pork said:"For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite."
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.
As for Osbrowne taking the credit, only if Cammie thinks it's a good idea to have Osbrowne telling the voters they've never had it so good, which I doubt. He kept Osbrowne away from the cameras as much as possible during the 2010 campaign for a reason and that reason has hardly decreased.
It's not going to be about convoluted economic arguments it's going to be about trust and credibility. It's going to be about whether the voter trusts labour again after the banking crash and whether Osbrowne and Cammie or little Ed and Balls have the credibility required to be given charge of the economy after 2015.
Balls and little Ed had Osbrowne's omnishambles and the labour lead handed to them on a plate yet they are nowhere near some of the leads we've see in previous electoral cycles. That's telling. A lead is still a lead (and it's still a good one) but after all the swivel-eyed loon, banging on about Europe splits and bumbling lately it's becoming clear that the kippers and the tories are the only thing little Ed can be thankful for since he is clearly not the author of his own party fortunes. To be fair few opposition leaders are but to rely so heavily on others mistakes is very dangerous. You are then totally at the mercy of events yourself.
Few doubt the kipper vote will fall heavily come an election. Given that volatile ingredient if I were little Ed I wouldn't be happy with Balls performance lately up against Osbrowne.
Money to put into May 2015 paypackets is hardly compatible with not throwing money at a problem. The voter will take any last minute attempts at bribes and promises with a very large pinch of salt. There will be no massive wage increase in 2015 whatever Brown wheezes Osbrowne attempts to try and mitigate the continued austerity.
Not so. He doesn't even need to be better than Balls and little Ed. He just needs to be close enough to them along with Cammie to create the space for the voter to then wonder if labour have learned a thing since the banking crash.Alanbrooke said:He doesn't even have to be a good CoE he just has to be better than the Eds
But will they be? The lib dems have the problem that they didn't want to be tainted with Osbrowne's omnishambles and other policies so they have wibbled and wobbled over some economic areas. If things are slightly better they will certainly want to hammer home the message that they can be trusted with the economy but I somehow doubt the tories are going to let them take all the credit if there is any to go around. They still have to beat the tories in some key marginals so the economic arguments are largely irrelevant there.Alanbrooke said:The LDs will be in a better position on the economy than labour in 2015.
More to the point if the lib dems are suicidal enough to keep Clegg where he is come the election then they need not be surprised at what fate awaits them. Not if they want enough of those tactical labour voters to come back any time soon.
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Yes, Cameron's position makes sense in that way, but for one exception - he has not explained what it is that he wishes to renegotiate. He has not established his red lines.Charles said:
If you don't try to renegotiate (and I am sceptical whether we will get anything meaningful) then the argument from the 'in' side is 'we can make it better'. The only way to defeat that argument is to test it. And may be I'm wrong, and we manage to renegotiate a fantastic deal.david_kendrick1 said:
Knocking copy can work, but it is very tough to get right. Cameron appears to be an adequate PM, given the hand he picked up, but his track record as a politician is poor. Using up political capital on gay marriage was soft.Blue_rog said:
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
His line on an EU referendum is entirely implausible. To claim that he is going to try to re-negotiate Britain's deal with the EU, and then recommend we stay in, is daft. He has fatally undermined his own negotiating position. No barrow-boy would make that mistake.
That makes the pivot to later advocating withdrawal after an attempted renegotiation harder to achieve, and so it looks more as though he wishes to spin any concession as a meaningful renegotiation, however minor.0 -
UKIP support at the general election will suffer as a consequence
I'm sure Farage will calculate the height of his influence over the next five years will be after the 2014 European elections.
If he was going to do a deal with the tories, that would be the time. In the end, I think he'll have to do a deal with the tories.
It would take decades for UKIP to supplant the tories as the party of the right, by which time the tide would have flowed so far in the opposite direction it would hardly be worth bothering.0 -
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No, he won't.taffys said:In the end, I think he'll have to do a deal with the tories.
His USP is I'm not lib-lab-con and that disappears very quickly should he contemplate any deal. Not exactly a protest vote if Farage is chums with Cammie, which will never happen anyway. They despise each other as do his activists. Why bother switching to the kippers in the first place if you were a tory and they do a deal with the tories?
Farage is a pressure group on tory backbenchers and grassroots right now and seems content with that. As long as he can try and shift the tories to BOO he won't worry too much about MPs just yet. A good thing too since he still hasn't got any.
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tim said:
@Socrates
Criminals move around the world, who knew?
Now what's that got to do with free movement of labour, they already moved.
Now I know why you would want to link the two, but why would a Tory strategist who knows they aren't going to abandon free movement?
Do you think it would be better for Britain if parts of it were more like Romania?
Is it controversial to say that Romania has an issue with crime way above that in the UK?
It seems that when there is a positive trait to take from an immigrant country, you highlight it and when there is a negative you ignore it or smear those who mention it.
If a load of British people were illegally in Pakistan robbing the Pakistanis, I shouldn't think Pakistani citizens would be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a wave of Brits arriving, do you?
Anyway, from what I've seen locally, I'm relaxed about the influx, should there be one...
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_20004700 -
Grauniad picks up on Cameron's shift relative to party:
"David Cameron is less popular than Tory party for first time, poll finds
Survey for Lord Ashcroft shows shift towards dissatisfaction with prime minister's performance"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/07/david-cameron-tory-party-poll?CMP=twt_fd0 -
Because more criminals will find it easier to move with free movement of labour. This isn't rocket science.tim said:@Socrates
Criminals move around the world, who knew?
Now what's that got to do with free movement of labour, they already moved.
Now I know why you would want to link the two, but why would a Tory strategist who knows they aren't going to abandon free movement?0 -
On topic
Seems UKIP up six points in an opinion poll is barely worth a mention by most posters.. says it all really
Those who have shorted UKIP just keep selling... no rebase.. average out... cross fingers0 -
Why bother switching to the kippers in the first place if you were a tory and they do a deal with the tories?
Of course I see your point Mick, but I think it might depend on what price Farage could exact.
We see today in the polls that for the first time I can remember Cam is less popular than his party. One of the anchors of Dave's leadership has always been he outpolled the party and put some sort of centrist gloss on the frothier rightists.
If he's the liability and not them, that does put a bit of a different slant on things.
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I am not a Tory; an orange booker if you please, and pro EU if it reforms.tim said:Ashcroft poll Immigration
"Which party do you trust on immigration"
January
Con 38
Lab 28
LD 13
June
Con 33
Lab 33
LD 13
In PB Toryworld that translates into "winning the debate"
By winning the debate I mean statements by Labour personnel, such as EdM that stated that Labour had got it wrong on immigration in the past and would not repeat those mistakes if in power again.
Sounds like winning the debate to me, when your opponent comes round to your point of view and there is no significant difference left. Of course UKIP are more hardline still, which is where the debate has shifted.0 -
Tories down 17 points in 3 years in a sub section (over 65s) is hardly "Man Lands On Moon" is it?tim said:
It's six points since January, thats hardly a news story.isam said:On topic
Seems UKIP up six points in an opinion poll is barely worth a mention by most posters.. says it all really
Those who have shorted UKIP just keep selling... no rebase.. average out... cross fingers
UKIP up 6 Tories down 6 since Dave made his Awesome Speech about Europe and ramped up immigration.
Hardly unpredictable was it?
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When you're shown up in logical argument you crack out the slurs. You tried to argue that free movement of labour wouldn't help criminal gangs work across borders, and then realised your idiocy. I don't want to ban all Romanians from coming here, I just want to control the flow so we can stop some of them. Explaining such simple logic time and time again is tiring, so I'm going to have to focus on the intelligent posters for a bit.tim said:Socrates said:
Because more criminals will find it easier to move with free movement of labour. This isn't rocket science.tim said:@Socrates
Criminals move around the world, who knew?
Now what's that got to do with free movement of labour, they already moved.
Now I know why you would want to link the two, but why would a Tory strategist who knows they aren't going to abandon free movement?
Somewhere in the US is a Tea Party supporter posting the same stuff about a Mexican criminal gang to slur all Latinos.
You're not exactly unique.0 -
Did you know...
(or is it true?)
Starbucks knock about 25p off a cup of take away coffee if you bring your own mug?0
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