Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll out
There’s a new phone poll out conducted for Lord Ashcroft, you can find it here.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/06/07/20002-20130607ARTFIG00277-apres-le-vin-francais-la-chine-s-en-prend-aux-berlines-allemandes.php
After that, the Tories need to get into GE mode and have a media storm spelling out the exact implications of voting for UKiP plus the assurances on getting a Euro Referendum with the Tories. I'd like to see more splits in the coalition with 'traditional' Tory legislation being torpedoed by the LD's and Labour and for the Tories to shout about that as well.
Every constituency should have leaflets showing the impact of UKiP on Tory hopes and the likely result of voting for UKiP with regards of letting the leftie thieves back in.
The Tory GE campaign should start the week after the Euros!
They really aren't, plenty of them are quite anti tory to their core
There goes Cammie's USP. So much for him being the Detox weapon.
The replacement speculation will grow more fevered as life after Cammie gets contemplated by backbenchers who were hardly overly fond of him anyway. Not that they have shown they have the balls to do anything about if before the election so Cammie won't be that worried.
"Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%""
But it did give the PB tories something to get hysterical over, so there's that at least.
Lib dems still tanking kippers still delighted until they realise FPTP isn't going anywhere.
The economy is going to be what matters most and if Balls and little Ed still can't make much headway against omnishambles Osborne then perhaps little Ed should start worrying far more about getting someone in as shadow chancellor who won't keep missing the open goals, rather than his blue labour welfare triangulation.
I think Devomax would be a great outcome. The Jockanese would get to be pretty much autonomous but within a single currency, defense, foreign set up.
And....it would imply EV4EL and end of Barnett.
If that result is repeated then it may be meaningful, but taking a single result and declaring it The Truth is sillier than a mongoose in a fez.
No deal I am afraid: We don't compensate the SFA before every EUFA or FIFA tournament. Scotland have a chance to qualify as an independent nation but we ain't gonna' make good if they fail...!
Nice comfort blanket for the lefties after their battle of Berlin on welfare this week..
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/us/nsa-verizon-calls.html?hp&_r=1&
I think some MP worth his or her salt will need to ask our government what it knows about this, and about how many UK citizens' information is being stored.
You didn't grasp that my point about the kippers and FPTP was predicated on the polls being subject to change come a real vote? It should have been obvious as is the fact that some polling areas matter more than others such as the economy. Which is why Labour have a real problem on their hands. Osbrowne is an open goal they seem incapable of taking advantage of. Balls in particular. He just isn't very good. At all.
Cammie's ratings are hardly a massive shift either. They were a change to the negative, only one set but enough to underline that he is not the election winning machine that his close chums seem to think he is if 2010 hadn't already tipped them off.
The future leadership speculation will happen regardless of one poll because it already has.
The realisation that Cammie's personal rating is not soaring above the tory brand will just fuel it. That's not the same as saying Cammie will be toppled before the election as I specifically indicated he would still feel pretty damn safe and with good reason.
Do you really think the Tories should be giving Labour a one-year head start?
His line on an EU referendum is entirely implausible. To claim that he is going to try to re-negotiate Britain's deal with the EU, and then recommend we stay in, is daft. He has fatally undermined his own negotiating position. No barrow-boy would make that mistake.
Did you see the newly published Scottish Social Attitudes survey:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1111766/the option not on the table final.pdf
Wasn't Salmond clever to box Cameron into only posing one question.....
Your post indicated that a single poll meant Cameron's USP [as you termed it] had gone.
Canada and the EU have been negotiating a trade agreement since 2009 with the goal of having it in place by the end of 2012. But negotiations have stalled and Mr. Ayrault indicated that the major stumbling blocks are trade in agricultural goods – in particular beef, poultry and pork products – as well as patent protection and cultural diversity.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/french-pm-outlines-obstacles-to-canada-eu-trade-deal/article9808368/
You think that's going to prove an effective unionist tactic for those who want more devolution do you?
*chuckles*
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robertcolvile/100220689/labours-house-of-cards-just-came-crashing-down/
"Until I read the Benn piece, I assumed that Labour was planning to disguise from the voters of the Home Counties the fact that its economic strategy basically revolved around filling their villages with bulldozers.
I'd even planned to write a blog or two drawing attention to the fact, and pointing out that if you value the view from your garden, it might just possibly be worth voting Tory rather than Ukip in order to keep the blighter out.
But now I'm genuinely baffled. Put simply, Ed Balls hasn't got a cat's chance in hell of getting his homes built – unless he passes rules that exempt his various New Ballsburgs, or whatever he calls his workers' palaces, from the regulations Mr Benn is promising to reinstate, thereby undermining their entire purpose.
I know the Tories have their omnishambolic moments, but even they wouldn't adopt such ludicrously contradictory policies, let alone parade them before the national media in the same bleedin' week.
Hence that clanging sound. Either Benn is lying to the voters, or he and Balls have failed to conduct the most elementary discussions about what the other is proposing. Either way, if such a party is fit for government and ready to rule, I'm a Dutchman's uncle."
Anyhoo.
If Henry hasn't sent me his piece by 2pm the afternoon thread will be about the closet racists.
"But by far the biggest gap comes when respondents are asked whether or not it is important that actor who plays the Doctor, a thousand-year-old time-travelling alien from the planet Gallifrey, be white. Just 5 per cent of Lib Dems thought it was; 50 per cent of members of the libertarian, non-racist party seeking Britain's withdrawal from the EU do."
http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/06/lib-dems-jon-pertwee-and-ukip-wants-straight-doctor
http://www.euractiv.com/future-eu/verhofstadt-cohn-bendit-get-euro-news-528373
Henry's just sent me his article.
It's another very good piece by Mr Manson.
An American photographer on vacation was inside a church in Oldham taking photographs when he noticed a golden telephone mounted on the wall with a sign that read '£10,000 per call'.
The American, being intrigued, asked a priest who was strolling by what the telephone was used for. The priest replied that it was a direct line to heaven and that for £10,000 you could talk to God. The American thanked the priest and went along his way.
Next stop was in Manchester... There, at a very large cathedral, he saw the same golden telephone with the same sign under it. He wondered if this was the same kind of telephone he saw in Oldham and he asked a nearby nun what its purpose was. She told him that it was a direct line to heaven and that for £10,000 he could talk to God.
'O.K., thank you,' said the American.
He then travelled to Blackburn, Darwen, Burnley, Rochdale and Littleborough. In every church he saw the same golden telephone with the same '£10,000 per call' sign under it. The American, upon leaving Lancashire decided to travel to Yorkshire to see if Yorkshiremen had the same phone.
He arrived in Todmorden, and again, in the first church he entered, there was the same golden telephone, but this time the sign under it read '50 pence per call.'
The American was surprised so he asked the priest about the sign. 'Father, I've travelled all over Lancashire and I've seen this same golden telephone in many churches. I'm told that it is a direct line to heaven, but in Lancashire the price was £10,000 per call. Why is it so cheap here?'
The priest smiled and answered, 'You're in Yorkshire now, son. It's a local call.'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/u-k-solar-investment-jeopardized-by-eu-tariffs-on-china.html
We have some great little alternative energy firms in the UK, but, just like our finance sector, the EU doesn't give a damn about them. We are way too dependent on not just the economic outlook but the political whims of the EU. This is only going to get worse as the core integrates. We'll leave within the next twenty years anyway - can't we just do it sooner before we miss so many opportunities with developing markets before they reach maturity?
His USP requires his personal ratings to be well above the tory brand for it to be effective, not just near parity. It's about the relative position not just this one snapshot. This indicates at the very least the tory brand and he are simply not miles apart. That polling will change does not make all changes insignificant.
"Thursday, EdM: Build More Houses
http://labourlist.org/2013/06/full-text-ed-miliband-speech-a-one-nation-plan-for-social-security-reform/ …
Friday, Hilary Benn: Give Locals Veto on Planning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10104826/Hilary-Benn-The-Coalition-have-got-it-wrong-over-planning.html …
1. the economy is on the mend
2. Ed isn't far enough ahead in the polls
3. there's no more contoversial legislation
4. Ed's policies so far have underwhelmed
5. there's an election budget to come
Labour's chances are all dependent on UKIP peeling off votes and since UKIP hasn't had much scrutiny it could all fall apart. Tough one for labour - attack UKIP and help the Conservatives or leave them alone and risk losing traditional votes.
When you do regain your composure try reading up on the McKay Commission before plunging into areas you clearly know next to nothing about.
France and Ireland currently supply the bulk of Europe’s beef, dating back to the collapse of the U.K. industry after its mad cow crisis. Farmers wield a lot of political clout in both countries, and Brinkmann told reporters that what Canada was asking for would be "suicidal" for farmers in these countries.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/06/03/pol-beef-canada-europe-trade-talks.html?cmp=rss
OT.
Putting these figures through at electoral calculus leads to a Labour majority of 106, and this is another poll that shows UKIP getting zero seats.
We all know that UNS is now a busted flush with the percentages that UKIP are now getting so why keep repeating the inane zero seats for UKIP, mantra? I'm betting 20+ seats for UKIP if they keep the percentages around 18%, which seems to be the average of recent polling.
UKIP 595
Con 545
Lab 507
ICHC 336
Liberal 140
Green 46
The division was Conservative held prior to May and Labour held prior to 2009 .
The only way the Tories could win in my opinion is to form an alliance with UKIP, removing Cameron if he does not support backing a NO vote in a referendum.
1) Why does your Labour crib sheet recommend attacking him - surely best to keep quiet ?
2) How did Boris get re-elected ?
Courage and shuffle the cards....
As for tactical voting I suspect it will be less prevalent than in the past due to the LD's "betrayal" in 2010, labour already having lefty LDs in its numbers and the LDs no longer being the home of the protest vote.
Well, the past week may have given Berlin a taste of what an EU without Britain could look like. And it ain’t pretty.'
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100024783/hey-berlin-this-is-what-an-eu-without-britain-would-look-like/
I don't think the vast majority of the electorate have given Labour's policies any thought but we are approaching the point when Ed Miliband will need to be able to answer the question "so why should I vote Labour?"
Labour can't expect to win simply by not being the Coalition though it's fair to say that in many countries those who have imposed austerity policies have had precious little in the way of thanks. In the end, there have to be positive reasons for voting Labour and that means creating a clear sense of how a Labour Britain post-2015 might be better.
As Allister Heath argued yesterday, the problems are in the medium term economically though he, like so many others on the Right, seem to view shale gas as the solution to every problem. On that basis, the most powerful nation in mid-21st century Europe is going to be Poland (again).
I wonder if you're even capable of adding up sometimes.
Who, apart from tim, wants unselective immigration to increase?
Is there a market for the return of a low-viz, no-entry avatar on this site within the next 24-hours? I may be tempted to suggest there is value in such an event....
As for Osbrowne taking the credit, only if Cammie thinks it's a good idea to have Osbrowne telling the voters they've never had it so good, which I doubt. He kept Osbrowne away from the cameras as much as possible during the 2010 campaign for a reason and that reason has hardly decreased.
It's not going to be about convoluted economic arguments it's going to be about trust and credibility. It's going to be about whether the voter trusts labour again after the banking crash and whether Osbrowne and Cammie or little Ed and Balls have the credibility required to be given charge of the economy after 2015.
Balls and little Ed had Osbrowne's omnishambles and the labour lead handed to them on a plate yet they are nowhere near some of the leads we've see in previous electoral cycles. That's telling. A lead is still a lead (and it's still a good one) but after all the swivel-eyed loon, banging on about Europe splits and bumbling lately it's becoming clear that the kippers and the tories are the only thing little Ed can be thankful for since he is clearly not the author of his own party fortunes. To be fair few opposition leaders are but to rely so heavily on others mistakes is very dangerous. You are then totally at the mercy of events yourself.
Few doubt the kipper vote will fall heavily come an election. Given that volatile ingredient if I were little Ed I wouldn't be happy with Balls performance lately up against Osbrowne.
A free-market in labour is being distorted by a use of subsidies for political reasons. With the EU forcing Westminster to offer benefits-for-all it is time for England to sort out this [largely Scots and Welsh-inspired] mess...!
* Increase should be clarified. The international labour market should work towards the point at which supply and demand are matched.
Of course the caveat is that UKIP continue to grow at the present pace. The future will tell.
And now I'm off to Trafalgar Square.
A sample size of 3067, using two different sampling methods. 2.3% MoE at 99% confidence, what a fantastic sample size. On that alone this poll is more accurate than most.
Lord Ashcroft's fieldwork and sample size are always fab.
It also matches other polls reasonably well so theres a nice sanity check in there.
Con down 6. UKIP up 6. Thats the big news from this poll, the UKIP bounce is most certainly real.
He doesn't even have to be a good CoE he just has to be better than the Eds and by 2015 their idea of throwing more money at the problem will just look like the day before yesterday's idea. The Eds have called the economy argument wrong. They've accepted the need for austerity too late, they still refuse to apologise for the horrendous mess labour left and they have advanced no serious alternative to challenge Osborne for 3 years. Osborne has some massive holes in his defences but Labour are not in a position to exploit them. The LDs will be in a better position on the economy than labour in 2015.
Anything to stop the thread discussing the huge rEd (and tim) flip flop on benefits.
Leading up the general election, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem will all be attacking UKIP because UKIP is a threat to each of them.
Negative electioneering is known to work and UKIP supporters will be seen a a soft target who can be dislodged. UKIP support at the general election will suffer as a consequence and be less than current sample polls show.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120049/Romanian-gangs-cashpoint-robberies-rake-30m-year.html
http://www.voice-online.co.uk/article/cash-machine-crime-has-tripled
My understanding is that the Chinese threat to retaliate with tariffs on wine are EU wide, not just France.
So similarly any new tariffs on cars would also be EU wide, not just Germany - so include UK car exports to China.
Money to put into May 2015 paypackets is hardly compatible with not throwing money at a problem. The voter will take any last minute attempts at bribes and promises with a very large pinch of salt. There will be no massive wage increase in 2015 whatever Brown wheezes Osbrowne attempts to try and mitigate the continued austerity. Not so. He doesn't even need to be better than Balls and little Ed. He just needs to be close enough to them along with Cammie to create the space for the voter to then wonder if labour have learned a thing since the banking crash.
But will they be? The lib dems have the problem that they didn't want to be tainted with Osbrowne's omnishambles and other policies so they have wibbled and wobbled over some economic areas. If things are slightly better they will certainly want to hammer home the message that they can be trusted with the economy but I somehow doubt the tories are going to let them take all the credit if there is any to go around. They still have to beat the tories in some key marginals so the economic arguments are largely irrelevant there.
More to the point if the lib dems are suicidal enough to keep Clegg where he is come the election then they need not be surprised at what fate awaits them. Not if they want enough of those tactical labour voters to come back any time soon.
That makes the pivot to later advocating withdrawal after an attempted renegotiation harder to achieve, and so it looks more as though he wishes to spin any concession as a meaningful renegotiation, however minor.
I'm sure Farage will calculate the height of his influence over the next five years will be after the 2014 European elections.
If he was going to do a deal with the tories, that would be the time. In the end, I think he'll have to do a deal with the tories.
It would take decades for UKIP to supplant the tories as the party of the right, by which time the tide would have flowed so far in the opposite direction it would hardly be worth bothering.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTs69gO-9Wg
His USP is I'm not lib-lab-con and that disappears very quickly should he contemplate any deal. Not exactly a protest vote if Farage is chums with Cammie, which will never happen anyway. They despise each other as do his activists. Why bother switching to the kippers in the first place if you were a tory and they do a deal with the tories?
Farage is a pressure group on tory backbenchers and grassroots right now and seems content with that. As long as he can try and shift the tories to BOO he won't worry too much about MPs just yet. A good thing too since he still hasn't got any.
Do you think it would be better for Britain if parts of it were more like Romania?
Is it controversial to say that Romania has an issue with crime way above that in the UK?
It seems that when there is a positive trait to take from an immigrant country, you highlight it and when there is a negative you ignore it or smear those who mention it.
If a load of British people were illegally in Pakistan robbing the Pakistanis, I shouldn't think Pakistani citizens would be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a wave of Brits arriving, do you?
Anyway, from what I've seen locally, I'm relaxed about the influx, should there be one...
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/romanian_robbery_gang_who_stole_1m_lived_rough_in_romford_woods_1_2000470
"David Cameron is less popular than Tory party for first time, poll finds
Survey for Lord Ashcroft shows shift towards dissatisfaction with prime minister's performance"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/07/david-cameron-tory-party-poll?CMP=twt_fd
Seems UKIP up six points in an opinion poll is barely worth a mention by most posters.. says it all really
Those who have shorted UKIP just keep selling... no rebase.. average out... cross fingers
Of course I see your point Mick, but I think it might depend on what price Farage could exact.
We see today in the polls that for the first time I can remember Cam is less popular than his party. One of the anchors of Dave's leadership has always been he outpolled the party and put some sort of centrist gloss on the frothier rightists.
If he's the liability and not them, that does put a bit of a different slant on things.
By winning the debate I mean statements by Labour personnel, such as EdM that stated that Labour had got it wrong on immigration in the past and would not repeat those mistakes if in power again.
Sounds like winning the debate to me, when your opponent comes round to your point of view and there is no significant difference left. Of course UKIP are more hardline still, which is where the debate has shifted.
(or is it true?)
Starbucks knock about 25p off a cup of take away coffee if you bring your own mug?