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Another boost for Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,915
edited January 28 in General
Another boost for Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

Getting endorsed by the former Lib Dem Liz Truss is an endorsement politicians would go out of their way to avoid. A fun betting market is if/when Liz Truss will defect to Reform.

Read the full story here

Comments

  • Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,682

    Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

    I'm sure the prophesy didn't say:

    "You can dump all the crappy things you don't want on your enemies and keep everything else"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,153
    Third! Like Kemi?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,174
    Mamdani follows the Rachel Reeves strategy;

    https://x.com/c_sommerfeldt/status/2016510138291458520

    On CNBC, Mayor Mamdani says he's later today "going to be sharing the truth with New Yorkers" about how Eric Adams' administration "has left us with a $12 billion fiscal deficit."

    "It's something that is attributable to gross fiscal mismanagement," he says.
  • Ooh that was a first!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,520
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Q: Please analyse the postings of user HYUFD on politicalbetting.com and suggest the most likely areas where he's going wrong?

    AI answer: According to analyses.......

    Which AI did you use?

    "Let me put it this way, viewcode. The HYUFD series is the most reliable computer ever made. No HYUFD computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error."
  • Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

    I'm sure the prophesy didn't say:

    "You can dump all the crappy things you don't want on your enemies and keep everything else"
    It’s been a while since I studied Aramaic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,051
    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,597
    edited January 28
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Will the 2 Tories and 1 LD in the constituency please share a taxi to the polling station....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,140
    edited January 28
    I expect Truss is too toxic even for Farage

    Mind you it would be hilarious
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,597

    I expect Truss is even too toxic even for Farage

    Mind you it would be hilarious

    Up there with taking Tommy Ten-names.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,140
    edited January 28

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Will the 2 Tories and 1 LD in the constituency please share a taxi to the polling station....
    As long as they vote and not lend the vote to either Reform or Labour

    Greens damaging labour on that poll
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,502
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,947
    edited January 28
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,256
    edited January 28
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Offt, easy Reform win because everyone's going to be confused about whether to vote Labour or Green?

    (Assuming sample size is a typo...)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,597
    Odd story,

    Man guilty of assault after Barron Trump reported attack to UK police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6wpdpylj1o
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,967

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
    I'd be very tempted to take a large wager on Green. It's bound to simplify into a two horse race and there are more reasons to vote green.

    But aay any result that keeps Reform out will be good for Labour
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,639
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    143 sample size? Doesn't that make it virtually useless?
  • Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
    I'd be very tempted to take a large wager on Green. It's bound to simplify into a two horse race and there are more reasons to vote green.

    But aay any result that keeps Reform out will be good for Labour
    What it does show is Burnham would have won the seat without any doubt.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,174
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Only the Lib Dems can beat RefLabGreenCon here. It’s a straight choice.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,076
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,485
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Offt, easy Reform win because everyone's going to be confused about whether to vote Labour or Green?

    (Assuming sample size is a typo...)
    A forerunner of much confusion about tactical voting to come. The Not Reform vote (65-70%) and The Left Of Centre Vote (probably 55%+) should be able to organise this without an effort. If it can't, there is a problem for about 400 general election seats.

  • CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    143 sample size? Doesn't that make it virtually useless?
    There is a digit in front of the comma missing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,689
    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    143 sample size? Doesn't that make it virtually useless?
    Its all data, just maybe not that good, and the confidence intervals ought to be really wide.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,689
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
    Just plopped onto Labour and I don't think I'm the only one.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,898
    Greens got 13% in Gorton and Denton in 2024, I would expect them to be much higher at the start of this campaign,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,836

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
    Just plopped onto Labour and I don't think I'm the only one.
    Also feeling good about my 7/1 Lab bet.

    Good times.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,885

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
    Just plopped onto Labour and I don't think I'm the only one.
    Betfair (in a thin market before all the candidates are known, especially Labour's):-

    Reform: 2.5
    Labour: 2.9 (was 7 a couple of hours ago)
    Green: 3.8
    Workers (aka GG): 120
    Conservative: 420
    LibDem: 500
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,390

    Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

    Is Upharsin something to do with the Finnish rumour?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,408

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
    Isn't Find Out Now the polling firm that runs the surveys on that small prize postcode lottery website?

    Which means that 143 sample size is rather self selecting and probably misses out some key demographics in the constituency...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,836
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Know we get overexcited sometimes. But Gorton is going to absolutely seismic. If Starmer loses, it's over for him. If Farage loses, serious questions will be asked about the Tory Retreads Strategy and the Goodwin selection. And if the Greens win...well, it's mayhem all round.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2016552857529471019
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
    Isn't Find Out Now the polling firm that runs the surveys on that small prize postcode lottery website?

    Which means that 143 sample size is rather self selecting and probably misses out some key demographics in the constituency...
    Yes they do use the people’s postcode lottery but I think there’s a typo with the sample size.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,491

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
    Nor a Labour one. Tricky to send a message to Starmer without ending up with a Reform MP - and a rum one at that. Green's quite a way back on that poll.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,597

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Know we get overexcited sometimes. But Gorton is going to absolutely seismic. If Starmer loses, it's over for him. If Farage loses, serious questions will be asked about the Tory Retreads Strategy and the Goodwin selection. And if the Greens win...well, it's mayhem all round.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2016552857529471019

    So according to the reverse Hodges principle, if, Starmer loses, he will limp on....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,679

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
    Nor a Labour one. Tricky to send a message to Starmer without ending up with a Reform MP - and a rum one at that. Green's quite a way back on that poll.
    It's a less fashionable aversion, but plenty of people also won't want a Green MP. I would probably vote Labour to avoid a Reform MP. But I might vote Reform to avoid a Green MP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,859
    This.
    Every government since Margaret Thatcher, please explain.

    The data here tells two different stories depending on how you read it.

    Story one: London is the world’s 4th largest startup hub, raised $17.7B in 2025, produced more unicorns than Berlin, Paris, and Tokyo combined. Success.

    Story two: London’s stock exchange fell to 23rd globally for IPO fundraising, behind Mexico and Oman. 88 companies delisted or fled in 2024, the largest exodus since the financial crisis. Deliveroo finally turned profitable after years of struggle, and DoorDash immediately swooped in to buy it for less than half its IPO price.

    The pattern is consistent. Freetrade built a profitable trading app, got acquired by IG Group for £160M after targeting a £700M valuation. Runna built a successful fitness app, Strava bought it. ARM, DeepMind, Skyscanner, Shazam. The exit playbook is always the same: build in London, sell to San Francisco.

    What London actually built is Europe’s most efficient farm system for US acquirers. The city does the expensive, risky work of finding founders, funding early rounds, and proving product-market fit. American companies wait until the risk is de-risked, then buy the winners at discounts enabled by London’s shrinking public markets.

    The $17.7B in venture funding measures inputs, not outcomes. The outcome is that UK startups raised all that money, then got absorbed into US companies before they could compound at scale.

    Being 4th in funding and 23rd in IPOs tells you exactly where the value is leaking.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2016375397131420005
  • eekeek Posts: 32,408

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Know we get overexcited sometimes. But Gorton is going to absolutely seismic. If Starmer loses, it's over for him. If Farage loses, serious questions will be asked about the Tory Retreads Strategy and the Goodwin selection. And if the Greens win...well, it's mayhem all round.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2016552857529471019

    So according to the reverse Hodges principle, if, Starmer loses, he will limp on....
    Starmer will limb on - until at least the May elections because it's very hard to get rid of a Labour PM until they decide to go (go and look at the Labour's rulebook if you think otherwise).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,967

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Know we get overexcited sometimes. But Gorton is going to absolutely seismic. If Starmer loses, it's over for him. If Farage loses, serious questions will be asked about the Tory Retreads Strategy and the Goodwin selection. And if the Greens win...well, it's mayhem all round.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2016552857529471019

    "I think that should read "Know I get overexcited....."

    Is he still on the payroll of a newspaper?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,408

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
    Isn't Find Out Now the polling firm that runs the surveys on that small prize postcode lottery website?

    Which means that 143 sample size is rather self selecting and probably misses out some key demographics in the constituency...
    Yes they do use the people’s postcode lottery but I think there’s a typo with the sample size.
    I don't think there is

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2016543778631303619 - there is a clear space between the comma and the 1

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK, 143 sample size, January 26-27

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,679
    O/T - startling differences in European nations' abilities to keep prisoners in prison:



  • TazTaz Posts: 24,337
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Ref/Con - 36%
    Lab/Grn - 54%

    Although Greens behind for now, Labour are going to have to fight hard to prevent Caerphilly Pt 2.

    People in this seat really won't want a Reform MP.
    Nor a Labour one. Tricky to send a message to Starmer without ending up with a Reform MP - and a rum one at that. Green's quite a way back on that poll.
    It's a less fashionable aversion, but plenty of people also won't want a Green MP. I would probably vote Labour to avoid a Reform MP. But I might vote Reform to avoid a Green MP.
    There’s an assumption in built that people will automatically not want a right wing MP and coalesce around whichever centrist/left candidate can beat them.

    That may happen when a govt is unpopular like in 97 and 24 but I’ve never seen why that should always apply because the tactical vote brigade hope it will.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,853
    Starmer's first step to helping his chances of surviving would be to sack his AG.

    Hermer is the toxic mess at the centre of government and needs to be removed.

    If Starmer distances himself from Hermer and appoints an AG with democratic legitimacy, he might be able to reshape the narrative. It is not as if there is a shortage of lawyers on the Labour benches

    But it will never happen. Starmer is too weak.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
    Isn't Find Out Now the polling firm that runs the surveys on that small prize postcode lottery website?

    Which means that 143 sample size is rather self selecting and probably misses out some key demographics in the constituency...
    Yes they do use the people’s postcode lottery but I think there’s a typo with the sample size.
    I don't think there is

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2016543778631303619 - there is a clear space between the comma and the 1

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK, 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Wow, the Telegraph are reporting it is as 143 too.

    In short this poll can get in the bin, a Scottish subsample of six blokes in Inverkeithing is more reliable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,174

    Starmer's first step to helping his chances of surviving would be to sack his AG.

    Hermer is the toxic mess at the centre of government and needs to be removed.

    If Starmer distances himself from Hermer and appoints an AG with democratic legitimacy, he might be able to reshape the narrative. It is not as if there is a shortage of lawyers on the Labour benches

    But it will never happen. Starmer is too weak.

    Ironically snubbing Emily Thornberry was the one of the few times he did assert his own power.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,967
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
    I didn't realise it was 'findoutnow' AKA fingerintheair.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,809
    edited January 28
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lee Anderson is on the PMQs list.

    Popcorn to standby.

    PM is in China
    Kemi has said she wouldn't have gone herself

    'Asked at an event in central London this morning whether she would travel to China if she were PM, Badenoch said: "No, not now, because I don’t think that this is the time to do that. We need to be talking to those other countries who are worried about the threat China is posing to them.”

    Badenoch also repeated her criticism of the government’s decision to give the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

    Writing in the Telegraph on Tuesday, Badenoch said the decision “will weaken our strategic position in the Indian Ocean and hand Beijing even greater influence near critical British military infrastructure”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gw427eenpt
    They know the truth, why are they persisting with this claim? She even name checked “Indian Ocean” without any acknowledgement India’s involvement in pushing and arranging this Chagos deal.

    This attack line is not without creating some problem for the Conservative Party as time passes. I don’t believe at the highest strategic levels the Conservative Party is ignorant of India’s growing Superpower influence in the region, but it’s certainly giving that impression publicly, by only talking of China influence in Indian Ocean not India’s.

    And of course, in the wild outlier the Conservatives win the next election on scrapping “Labours” Chagos deal - there’s the huge India in the way glaring down at them.
    The US would also be glaring at India and China as they also oppose the Chagos handover
    Are you sure 🤣 the US wrote it for us to sign!

    Historically, since we got into this in 1960’s, it’s been US writing the order sheet what we must do, UK owning the ethnic cleansing and everything - what’s different with this new deal, India have muscled their way into the room, in a show of their growing superpower influence in the region. When it comes to our continued involvement in Chagos and Garcia, UK now has Two Gov’nors in the room, bossing us around.

    It helps Conservative Party to get publicly back on the facts before too long. But I guess that’s what changing leaders is for.
    Trump has made clear the Chagos should not be handed over to Mauritius, so Modi can take it up with him
    Trump put his team in there and wrote it, though performative because it was already written, so that it wouldn’t be Biden’s Great Deal, but his.

    Trump is not going to stop the Chagos Deal, HY.

    Let me give you a second further example, contrast the Cameron and Osborne’s governmental position to China, with Badenoch’s today. Everyone from EU to Trump has gone to and sat down with China, on free trade business terms. Even Trump, whose commitment to Free Trade and Capitalism is questionable.

    Is this not a short term opportunist position of Badenoch towards China? not one of a serious party for government can sustain up, and into a General Election, and beyond?

    Ditto, with posturing regards China, there is no way Badenoch’s front bench, out the public eye, does not recognise the growing Super Power influence of India throughout the Indian Ocean, and what that means to commercial and security interests of the UK. So how long can they keep something going publicly, that’s not what they believe privately?
    Communist China is more of a threat to the west than India as Kemi has made clear, though Trump has imposed heavy tariffs on China and India, much more than he has imposed on the UK.

    Starmer is going ahead with the Chagos handover to Mauritius regardless so it will then be up to Trump and Modi to sort out
    Tacking our chat off on a tangent then - you called China communist. Is China still a communist country, in your opinion? Where you can still point to how they practice communism - as distinct to everything you would find practiced in any Nationalistic One Party State? China has more billionaires than the USA. And how they brutally allow ventures and factories to go bust, without state support, brutal on locked out workers also banned from being in a union, this seems more free market capitalist than even Hitlers Germany? Than even us in UK?
    At a street level, it makes American capitalism look tame. I was really taken aback about how fierce and brutal competition is and selling is integrated into everything. My burner phone was constantly being pinged with notifications of offer offer buy now, get coffee for 5 RMB buy next 10 mins, etc. TikTok, seemed like everything you see your favourite influencer is wearing, tap, link to buy from shirt to their makeup.
    But still, all land (?) is owned by the state, and c. 60% of businesses when measured by value are state-owned IIRC. The CCP very much believes in Marxism and Leninism, even if there is a sneaky pragmatism which tentatively creeps in from time to time when the economic catastrophe of communism stares them in the face too hard.
    “Marxism and Leninism”

    The problem I got with your way of thinking on this, Marx and Lenin were European, one a German Jew. You have philosophies and culture out of time and relevant the world over?

    Isn’t the whole make up of the Eastern Tiger so different in its DNA than Europe? If it was communist for a time, would it not result to its normal DNA and slot back in with everything surrounding it?
    I think you’re overthinking this MoonRabbit. Marx: the economy should be owed by the state. Lenin: the communist party should have the monopoly on power. The CCP fully buys into both of those. They’re not just paying lip service to the idea; they’re true believers. Occasionally they may have to temporarily compromise with reality; often they may find their power is not as all-encompassing as they would like. But that is to them a temporary setback, rather than ground they have fully conceded. They are communists.
    It is not really possible to own stuff in China. Anything you have, you have at the sufferance of the state, which is perfectly happy to dispossess you – or, as it sees you, repossess your assets to become collective assets. You can’t even easily get your stuff out to places which have a concept of property rights, though that doesn’t stop people trying.

    So they don’t have more billionaires than the US? None of the China billionaires own anything?

    Marx and Lenin were liberals fighting a liberal revolution against feudalism, serfs and all that. They offer nothing to the world as it is today. And absolutely everyone in charge in China today knows that is the truth. They don’t carry little books and read that shit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,040
    Cookie said:

    O/T - startling differences in European nations' abilities to keep prisoners in prison:



    I am sceptical these numbers are accurate.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,257
    edited January 28
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Holy Allah, Iran is hideous


    Conservative estimates of 20,000 dead. Nearly all young protestors

    I want Trump to nuke the mullahs. Do it

    “I’m so cross that you’ve killed 20,000 of your civilians that I am going to kill 50,000 myself”.
    I was being hyperbolic

    Nukes aren’t quite justified yet. But Iran really is the most hideous regime on earth and it’s ending would be incredibly desirable

    If Trump and his wunderweapons can take out the Iranian leadership en masse and only kill a few 100 Iranians then Fucksake do it. The mullahs are purely evil. Satanic. Islam as Nazism, with an extra hatred for women
    They are one of the most hideous regimes on earth.

    I would share that title with Putin's Russia, whom Trump seems to want to treat as an ally.

    Plus North Korea. Who tend to get forgotten about as they rather keep repressing their own people rather than meddling with others.

    Plus let us never forget Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud, whom the West have treated as allies not enemies for decades - and have been funding Islamism globally including on our streets.
    In my ranking Iran is far worse than Russia, because Russia does not routinely oppress half of its citizens in the most cruel way - ie women. Women are free in Russia, As are most minorities if they don’t play up. Putin is closer to Kaiser Wilhelm, Khameni is closer to Vlad Dracul

    And Iran is a great, unique once-and-future civilisation, sadly truncated by Islam, if it is freed it will do marvellous things. North Korea is not that (much as I hope they are liberated)

    So, yeah, for me, Iran is the worst
    I note you did not mention Saudi Arabia in that response. HYUFD was right to add the Taliban in Afghanistan to it too.

    The downfall of the once great civilisation of Persia is tragic, I agree. However when it comes to oppressing women and Islamism, then the Taliban and our supposed-allies in the House of Saud are just as bad as the Mullahs.

    Saudi especially has spread a lot of evil in funding Wahabiism globally, including in the UK.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,557
    Cookie said:

    O/T - startling differences in European nations' abilities to keep prisoners in prison:



    Or statistical differences in how they record their numbers perhaps.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,408
    edited January 28

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    A reminder that Find Out Now overstated Reform’s majority by 150% at the Runcorn by-election. FACT.
    Isn't Find Out Now the polling firm that runs the surveys on that small prize postcode lottery website?

    Which means that 143 sample size is rather self selecting and probably misses out some key demographics in the constituency...
    Yes they do use the people’s postcode lottery but I think there’s a typo with the sample size.
    I don't think there is

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2016543778631303619 - there is a clear space between the comma and the 1

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK, 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Wow, the Telegraph are reporting it is as 143 too.

    In short this poll can get in the bin, a Scottish subsample of six blokes in Inverkeithing is more reliable.
    Missed your bit earlier - it's not postcode lottery it's a website called https://pickmypostcode.com/

    So that survey is based on 143 people all answering questions on a website for a chance to win £50...

    Read into that what you want to see how subsampley that subsample is and which demographics will be completely missed.
  • Starmer's first step to helping his chances of surviving would be to sack his AG.

    Hermer is the toxic mess at the centre of government and needs to be removed.

    If Starmer distances himself from Hermer and appoints an AG with democratic legitimacy, he might be able to reshape the narrative. It is not as if there is a shortage of lawyers on the Labour benches

    But it will never happen. Starmer is too weak.

    The problem is that Hermer represents how Starmer thinks. He is his ideological ally, in as much as Starmer has an ideology.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,337
    A Labour bar chart .

    Would the Lib Dem’s be proud !!


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,174
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    O/T - startling differences in European nations' abilities to keep prisoners in prison:



    I am sceptical these numbers are accurate.
    The Czech Republic certainly isn't without prison escapes.

    https://english.radio.cz/escape-causes-fresh-embarrassment-czech-prison-service-8045687

    Escape causes fresh embarrassment for Czech prison service
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,326
    Taz said:

    A Labour bar chart .

    Would the Lib Dem’s be proud !!


    Propmoted?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,417
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

    ➡️ REF - 30%
    🔴 LAB - 27%
    🟢 GRN - 17%
    🔵 CON - 6%
    🔶 LD - 2%

    Don't knows - 18%

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 143 sample size, January 26-27

    Feeling good about my Lab 6/1 bet now...
    It's certainly the first Labour leaflet written. Anyone got come clipart of a horse, then some clipart of another horse?

    Maybe not crazy, though. The FoN theory is that most people aren't interested in politics. It's quite possible that the Andy Pandy Isn't Coming To Play story isn't of interest to normies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,142
    "More than 100 people were threatened with eviction from their homes to make way for asylum seekers after companies linked to a prominent GP started running migrant hotels.

    Firms connected to Dr Faisal Maassarani became landlords of Serco hotels in 2022 when asylum applications were almost at a 20-year high.

    But soon after a hotel in Seel Street in Liverpool owned by one of the firms was found to be unsuitable, people in one of their Liverpool housing complexes were told they had to move out over "urgent" fire safety issues, unaware that 116 asylum seekers had seemingly been lined up to replace them almost immediately.

    Maassarani, whose involvement with one of the firms was hidden behind a complex structure of companies and trusts registered in the Isle of Man, said he had no part in the day-to-day running of the buildings and did not authorise any communication with tenants.

    Maassarani operates several GP surgeries in Knowsley and Sefton and in 2009 set up the social isolation charity Care Merseyside."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgvn4rr03vo
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,346
    Poor Lammy getting savaged again at PMQs
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,174
    Why did Starmer walk off the plane like he'd just been Maduroed?

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2016457333325349371
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,679

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lee Anderson is on the PMQs list.

    Popcorn to standby.

    PM is in China
    Kemi has said she wouldn't have gone herself

    'Asked at an event in central London this morning whether she would travel to China if she were PM, Badenoch said: "No, not now, because I don’t think that this is the time to do that. We need to be talking to those other countries who are worried about the threat China is posing to them.”

    Badenoch also repeated her criticism of the government’s decision to give the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

    Writing in the Telegraph on Tuesday, Badenoch said the decision “will weaken our strategic position in the Indian Ocean and hand Beijing even greater influence near critical British military infrastructure”.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gw427eenpt
    They know the truth, why are they persisting with this claim? She even name checked “Indian Ocean” without any acknowledgement India’s involvement in pushing and arranging this Chagos deal.

    This attack line is not without creating some problem for the Conservative Party as time passes. I don’t believe at the highest strategic levels the Conservative Party is ignorant of India’s growing Superpower influence in the region, but it’s certainly giving that impression publicly, by only talking of China influence in Indian Ocean not India’s.

    And of course, in the wild outlier the Conservatives win the next election on scrapping “Labours” Chagos deal - there’s the huge India in the way glaring down at them.
    The US would also be glaring at India and China as they also oppose the Chagos handover
    Are you sure 🤣 the US wrote it for us to sign!

    Historically, since we got into this in 1960’s, it’s been US writing the order sheet what we must do, UK owning the ethnic cleansing and everything - what’s different with this new deal, India have muscled their way into the room, in a show of their growing superpower influence in the region. When it comes to our continued involvement in Chagos and Garcia, UK now has Two Gov’nors in the room, bossing us around.

    It helps Conservative Party to get publicly back on the facts before too long. But I guess that’s what changing leaders is for.
    Trump has made clear the Chagos should not be handed over to Mauritius, so Modi can take it up with him
    Trump put his team in there and wrote it, though performative because it was already written, so that it wouldn’t be Biden’s Great Deal, but his.

    Trump is not going to stop the Chagos Deal, HY.

    Let me give you a second further example, contrast the Cameron and Osborne’s governmental position to China, with Badenoch’s today. Everyone from EU to Trump has gone to and sat down with China, on free trade business terms. Even Trump, whose commitment to Free Trade and Capitalism is questionable.

    Is this not a short term opportunist position of Badenoch towards China? not one of a serious party for government can sustain up, and into a General Election, and beyond?

    Ditto, with posturing regards China, there is no way Badenoch’s front bench, out the public eye, does not recognise the growing Super Power influence of India throughout the Indian Ocean, and what that means to commercial and security interests of the UK. So how long can they keep something going publicly, that’s not what they believe privately?
    Communist China is more of a threat to the west than India as Kemi has made clear, though Trump has imposed heavy tariffs on China and India, much more than he has imposed on the UK.

    Starmer is going ahead with the Chagos handover to Mauritius regardless so it will then be up to Trump and Modi to sort out
    Tacking our chat off on a tangent then - you called China communist. Is China still a communist country, in your opinion? Where you can still point to how they practice communism - as distinct to everything you would find practiced in any Nationalistic One Party State? China has more billionaires than the USA. And how they brutally allow ventures and factories to go bust, without state support, brutal on locked out workers also banned from being in a union, this seems more free market capitalist than even Hitlers Germany? Than even us in UK?
    At a street level, it makes American capitalism look tame. I was really taken aback about how fierce and brutal competition is and selling is integrated into everything. My burner phone was constantly being pinged with notifications of offer offer buy now, get coffee for 5 RMB buy next 10 mins, etc. TikTok, seemed like everything you see your favourite influencer is wearing, tap, link to buy from shirt to their makeup.
    But still, all land (?) is owned by the state, and c. 60% of businesses when measured by value are state-owned IIRC. The CCP very much believes in Marxism and Leninism, even if there is a sneaky pragmatism which tentatively creeps in from time to time when the economic catastrophe of communism stares them in the face too hard.
    “Marxism and Leninism”

    The problem I got with your way of thinking on this, Marx and Lenin were European, one a German Jew. You have philosophies and culture out of time and relevant the world over?

    Isn’t the whole make up of the Eastern Tiger so different in its DNA than Europe? If it was communist for a time, would it not result to its normal DNA and slot back in with everything surrounding it?
    I think you’re overthinking this MoonRabbit. Marx: the economy should be owed by the state. Lenin: the communist party should have the monopoly on power. The CCP fully buys into both of those. They’re not just paying lip service to the idea; they’re true believers. Occasionally they may have to temporarily compromise with reality; often they may find their power is not as all-encompassing as they would like. But that is to them a temporary setback, rather than ground they have fully conceded. They are communists.
    It is not really possible to own stuff in China. Anything you have, you have at the sufferance of the state, which is perfectly happy to dispossess you – or, as it sees you, repossess your assets to become collective assets. You can’t even easily get your stuff out to places which have a concept of property rights, though that doesn’t stop people trying.

    So they don’t have more billionaires than the US? None of the China billionaires own anything?

    Marx and Lenin were liberals fighting a liberal revolution against feudalism, serfs and all that. They offer nothing to the world as it is today. And absolutely everyone in charge in China today knows that is the truth. They don’t carry little books and read that shit.
    If you're a billionaire in China you are that until the government takes it off you. Your billions are highly conditional; you'll struggle to take it out of the country.

    And - at the risk of descending to yes-it-is-no-it-isn't - Marx and Lenin weren't liberals, and the Chinese Communist Party is full of communists.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,836
    It's been 48-49 degrees in parts of Australia today.



  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,679
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    O/T - startling differences in European nations' abilities to keep prisoners in prison:



    I am sceptical these numbers are accurate.
    That would certainly be the more plausible explanation than them simply forgetting to lock the prisons in the Netherlands.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,337

    It's been 48-49 degrees in parts of Australia today.



    42 where my Brother in Law is and their Xmas the weather was mediocre.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,853

    Starmer's first step to helping his chances of surviving would be to sack his AG.

    Hermer is the toxic mess at the centre of government and needs to be removed.

    If Starmer distances himself from Hermer and appoints an AG with democratic legitimacy, he might be able to reshape the narrative. It is not as if there is a shortage of lawyers on the Labour benches

    But it will never happen. Starmer is too weak.

    The problem is that Hermer represents how Starmer thinks. He is his ideological ally, in as much as Starmer has an ideology.
    That's the crux of it. Hermer is probably the most activist AG in modern political history. Starmer has given him too much power to push his very narrow worldview into all parts of government

    Starmer won't sack him. But he must to reset his government
  • NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.