Tice has tweeted the full list of Conservative politician backers of the new Tory centrists pressure group, ProsperUK.
Includes James Arbuthnot, Greg Barker, Gavin Barwell, Virginia Bottomley, Nick Bourne, Robert Buckland, Elizabeth Campbell, Alex Chalk, Ken Clarke, Ruth Davidson, Jackie Doyle-Price, Alan Duncan, Philip Dunne, Tobias Ellwood, Edward Garnier, David Gauke, John Gummer, Damian Green, Justine Greening, John Gummer, Philip Hammond, Matt Hancock, Greg Hands, Michael Heseltine, Nick Hurd, Margot James, Oliver Letwin, David Lidington, Johnny Mercer, Bob Neil, Malcolm Rifkind, Amber Rudd, Nicholas Soames, Caroline Spelman, Andy Street, Edward Timpson and Ed Vaizey and David Willetts https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/2016027595767189928?s=20
And they'll none of them be missed, they'll none of them be missed.
Didn't realise the Conservatives had that many decent MPs still left in the Commons. You could easily make a decent Cabinet out of that lot.
Has anybody else been following the steady decline of the US$ against the £ and Euro?
I assume this is just the markets giving their opinion of the way the Trump bunch are managing their economy and not a tribute to the prowess of our economic stewards this side of the pond. We are getting close to an exchange rate of 1.40. How long before we see a Mail headline to the effect of 'Starmer/Reeves Dash UK Export Hopes'?
Coupled with tariffs, that will do US inflation no favours, but presumably will help on this side by reducing fuel prices.
Trump would like a weaker dollar but also wants to raise money through tariffs but also wants to continue to run a massive deficit which is only tolerated by markets while the dollar has hegemony but also wants to impose taxes on non-US holders of US debt but also keeps being unpredictable and offensive and making the US feel like it's not a safe place to park assets...
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
I'd admire Ed M is still in the hunt for being PM after nearly 20 years in politcs and losing a GE, but have his qualities improved in the last 10 years to make him a better prospect for them?
It's the qualities of those around him that count.
If Labour led by Miliband achieved just over 30% of the vote at the next GE, as they did in 2015, they would be delighted.
Given that they're currently 10pp behind in the polls, even losing by the ~7pp margin of 2015 would be an improvement.
Labour are just 4% behind Reform in today's Yougov
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Goodwin is smart young articulate and telegenic. I’ve been saying on here for 2-3 years that his obvious next move must be joining Reform. He clearly reads me on PB. He’s already got more energy than anyone - ANYONE - in the Tory party
I’m just not sure, at all, that he’s chosen the right seat. And after you lose once it can get harder
Apart from the fact, pointed out by Michael Crick, that Reform MP Danny Kruger’s mother was responsible for British Rail’s catering, this tweet from Richard Tice is surely too close to being applicable to his own party for it to be a useful thing to say
Prosper UK launch!
Like a soggy stale sandwich from the old British Rail
All the Tory Wets who screwed up the UK over last 15 yrs have got together to remind each other how they messed it up 🤣🤣
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
I understand most of the problems don't apply to the resident themselves but to their inheritors, in that there is no residual value.
Did you manage to sell it?
+1 - the issue is they have high on-going costs which continue until sold so it's eating £1500 a month off the final inheritance.
It's why my parents bought one managed by ExtraCare Charitable Trust - on death they buy the flat back at the price you paid for it.
Apart from the fact, pointed out by Michael Crick, that Reform MP Danny Kruger’s mother was responsible for British Rail’s catering, this tweet from Richard Tice is surely too close to being applicable to his own party for it to be a useful thing to say
Prosper UK launch!
Like a soggy stale sandwich from the old British Rail
All the Tory Wets who screwed up the UK over last 15 yrs have got together to remind each other how they messed it up 🤣🤣
Apart from the fact, pointed out by Michael Crick, that Reform MP Danny Kruger’s mother was responsible for British Rail’s catering, this tweet from Richard Tice is surely too close to being applicable to his own party for it to be a useful thing to say
Prosper UK launch!
Like a soggy stale sandwich from the old British Rail
All the Tory Wets who screwed up the UK over last 15 yrs have got together to remind each other how they messed it up 🤣🤣
ICE now appears to be using the LRAD (long range acoustic device) weapon at close range against peaceful protesters in Minneapolis.
People exposed, especially at close range often suffer from: •permanent hearing loss •tinnitus (constant ringing) •ruptured eardrums •vertigo & balance problems •migraines & nausea •panic responses https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/2016107450139611589
In separate news - Eek twin A has just started to receive a flood of business rate appeals - it seems a lot of second homes are now above local authority thresholds for business rates so are about to receive massive ongoing bills.
Has anybody else been following the steady decline of the US$ against the £ and Euro?
I assume this is just the markets giving their opinion of the way the Trump bunch are managing their economy and not a tribute to the prowess of our economic stewards this side of the pond. We are getting close to an exchange rate of 1.40. How long before we see a Mail headline to the effect of 'Starmer/Reeves Dash UK Export Hopes'?
Coupled with tariffs, that will do US inflation no favours, but presumably will help on this side by reducing fuel prices.
Trump would like a weaker dollar but also wants to raise money through tariffs but also wants to continue to run a massive deficit which is only tolerated by markets while the dollar has hegemony but also wants to impose taxes on non-US holders of US debt but also keeps being unpredictable and offensive and making the US feel like it's not a safe place to park assets...
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Goodwin did study at Salford Uni and was a fellow at Manchester Uni I suppose
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
It's not the ground rents but the service charges that are the killer with many of these flats. A retirement block near us is currently charging £650pm service charge - to flat owners. Meanwhile a let flat in the same complex is only fetching £950pm* in rent, which includes services.
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
Deleted all his tweets with bad predictions then aftertimed like mad. People kept the screenshots.
If Labour have any sense at all they will select a decent but dull local councillor who has lived in Gorton all his life, preferably with a working class background as a foil to carpetbagger Goodwin
In separate news - Eek twin A has just started to receive a flood of business rate appeals - it seems a lot of second homes are now above local authority thresholds for business rates so are about to receive massive ongoing bills.
I wonder if that going o scupper the scam where second home owners avoid Council Tax because their holiday homes are run as a business and below the business rate threshold. I hope so.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Washington signalled Kyiv would receive more backing if — as the price of peace with Russia — it agreed to withdraw its forces from the Donbas region, said people familiar with talks. https://x.com/FT/status/2016045325421539793
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
It's not the ground rents but the service charges that are the killer with many of these flats. A retirement block near us is currently charging £650pm service charge - to flat owners. Meanwhile a let flat in the same complex is only fetching £950pm* in rent, which includes services.
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
The thing I don't understand in this scenario is why tenants are in short supply given our demographics and housing shortages?
In separate news - Eek twin A has just started to receive a flood of business rate appeals - it seems a lot of second homes are now above local authority thresholds for business rates so are about to receive massive ongoing bills.
I wonder if that going o scupper the scam where second home owners avoid Council Tax because their holiday homes are run as a business and below the business rate threshold. I hope so.
It's the end result of the scam, HMRC come along and value the business rates of the property at a level where paying 2 lots of council tax will be cheaper.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
Deleted all his tweets with bad predictions then aftertimed like mad. People kept the screenshots.
If Labour have any sense at all they will select a decent but dull local councillor who has lived in Gorton all his life, preferably with a working class background as a foil to carpetbagger Goodwin
Goodwin feels like too much of an own the libs right wing media darling to be the ideal candidate for Reform in this constituency. He comes with a lot of baggage that his opponents can weaponise, including the Tories who will want to prove they have not been utterly eclipsed by Reform on the right. I had assumed that Labour would lose this without Burnham as a candidate, now I am less confident about that.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
It's not the ground rents but the service charges that are the killer with many of these flats. A retirement block near us is currently charging £650pm service charge - to flat owners. Meanwhile a let flat in the same complex is only fetching £950pm* in rent, which includes services.
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
The thing I don't understand in this scenario is why tenants are in short supply given our demographics and housing shortages?
Many people don't want to buy an older property where everyone else is 25 years old than they are...
It's like care homes, the economics work when it's a new build and start to fall apart as things age..
Deleted all his tweets with bad predictions then aftertimed like mad. People kept the screenshots.
If Labour have any sense at all they will select a decent but dull local councillor who has lived in Gorton all his life, preferably with a working class background as a foil to carpetbagger Goodwin
Goodwin feels like too much of an own the libs right wing media darling to be the ideal candidate for Reform in this constituency. He comes with a lot of baggage that his opponents can weaponise, including the Tories who will want to prove they have not been utterly eclipsed by Reform on the right. I had assumed that Labour would lose this without Burnham as a candidate, now I am less confident about that.
Some sense in this
Goodwin is easily capable of winning a seat for Reform. Somewhere in eastern or coastal England he’d be a dead cert. But affluent-ish Manchester? Hmm
I worry he’s got carried away by the idea of a national cockpit - and he will lose
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
Rosindell, Nadine, Jenrick, Braverman, Zahawi, come on down!!!
Reform, the party for Tories you loved to hate!! The Alan B'Stard's of today
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
And if you sell they charge a percentage of the sale price. Or certainly did
Something reasonable like 15%
McCarthy & Stone illustrate why limiting freehold won’t end the problem - they already use charges for *everything* to extract the money they want.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
Deleted all his tweets with bad predictions then aftertimed like mad. People kept the screenshots.
If Labour have any sense at all they will select a decent but dull local councillor who has lived in Gorton all his life, preferably with a working class background as a foil to carpetbagger Goodwin
Goodwin feels like too much of an own the libs right wing media darling to be the ideal candidate for Reform in this constituency. He comes with a lot of baggage that his opponents can weaponise, including the Tories who will want to prove they have not been utterly eclipsed by Reform on the right. I had assumed that Labour would lose this without Burnham as a candidate, now I am less confident about that.
Does the result not depend on how many votes the Greens get more than anything else?
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Reform now ARE the Tories, just the Truss 2022 Tories and Jenrick backing Tories.
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
It's not the ground rents but the service charges that are the killer with many of these flats. A retirement block near us is currently charging £650pm service charge - to flat owners. Meanwhile a let flat in the same complex is only fetching £950pm* in rent, which includes services.
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
The thing I don't understand in this scenario is why tenants are in short supply given our demographics and housing shortages?
Because generally by the time people get to 60 they are either relatively affluent and home owners or strapped for income and renting.
The former don't need or want to rent, the latter can't afford the levels of rents retirement homes would like to charge (even with Housing Benefit) and in any case are often settled in secure social housing.
If you're a homeowner who wants to downsize to an over-55 community there is a good argument for selling up, investing the proceeds, and renting one of these flats with the income, but psychologically it's a difficult step.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
Four possibilities I can think of. 1 Farage wanted clever people, real experience, able to shake things up, but they all turned him down. So he's making do with who he can get. 2 Farage has got high on his supply; he's doing so well in the polls that he thinks that he can do whatever he wants. 3 Farage has got high on his supply; he thinks that bringing in all the worst of the Johnsonite gang will make him more popular. 4 RefUK is Springtime For Hitler reimagined as a political party, and Nigel is now trying ever-harder to make it fail because he cannot risk it suceeding.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The traitors won already, didn't you see the final last week?
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
It is win or bust for Reform.
If Farage fails to win most seats at the next GE and fails to become PM I could see most of the ex Tory Reformers eventually ending back in the Tories while Reform would be taken over by Lowe and Tommy Robinson nationalist types and probably merge with AdvanceUK
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
But tbh are redeemed by pies.
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The problem for the populist nationalist right across the western world is it can get to 20-30% with little problem.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
It started a bit ago in the USA. How's that project getting on by the way?
Has anybody else been following the steady decline of the US$ against the £ and Euro?
I assume this is just the markets giving their opinion of the way the Trump bunch are managing their economy and not a tribute to the prowess of our economic stewards this side of the pond. We are getting close to an exchange rate of 1.40. How long before we see a Mail headline to the effect of 'Starmer/Reeves Dash UK Export Hopes'?
Very soon, I'm sure. Along with ...
Footsie bubble due to Reeves ramping!
Gilt rates fall. Reeves eyes borrowing binge!
Growth up under Reeves. But is it real?
Reeves hails rebound in jobs despite it having nothing to do with her.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
But tbh are redeemed by pies.
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
Oh, yes, I don't mean Wigan = bad (by most measures its doing better than Rochdale, Oldham or Tameside) - just that it's a bit semi-detached and behaves to its own patterns.
I've drawn some blobs on the map to show what I mean: black blobs for the traditionally 'good' areas, red to illustrate Denton and Gorton:
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
Four possibilities I can think of. 1 Farage wanted clever people, real experience, able to shake things up, but they all turned him down. So he's making do with who he can get. 2 Farage has got high on his supply; he's doing so well in the polls that he thinks that he can do whatever he wants. 3 Farage has got high on his supply; he thinks that bringing in all the worst of the Johnsonite gang will make him more popular. 4 RefUK is Springtime For Hitler reimagined as a political party, and Nigel is now trying ever-harder to make it fail because he cannot risk it suceeding.
Well know it’s four if he changes his mind and goes anywhere near Tommy Robinson.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
It's not the ground rents but the service charges that are the killer with many of these flats. A retirement block near us is currently charging £650pm service charge - to flat owners. Meanwhile a let flat in the same complex is only fetching £950pm* in rent, which includes services.
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
The thing I don't understand in this scenario is why tenants are in short supply given our demographics and housing shortages?
Because generally by the time people get to 60 they are either relatively affluent and home owners or strapped for income and renting.
The former don't need or want to rent, the latter can't afford the levels of rents retirement homes would like to charge (even with Housing Benefit) and in any case are often settled in secure social housing.
If you're a homeowner who wants to downsize to an over-55 community there is a good argument for selling up, investing the proceeds, and renting one of these flats with the income, but psychologically it's a difficult step.
My parents have bought into a retirement village and sold their house, it is miles better for them, far more social, better facilities and support available. Yes the service charges are high, moving was stressful and they take a large chunk on future sale but it is still close to a no brainer.
People seem to assume they are all to be avoided as if they are 1970s care homes.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
I think it's all pretty fertile ground for Reform presently to be honest with disaffected Labour voters aplenty in each of them and what was a good solid Tory base in Bolton, Bury, Trafford, Stockport and bits of Tameside a good chunk of which will have moved to or could easily move to Farage.
Trafford is ever more young affluent professional, as the trendy South Manchester clan extends out of the city itself, and thus has gone from the Tory flagship (and sometimes their only) metro borough of the north to a bellweather Tory/Lab battleground, to now increasingly comfortable for Labour - but surely threatened by the Greens. I'd say Trafford and the leftier/ younger professional parts of Stockport which would have happily seen Corbyn in No10 are very ripe for plundering by Zack and his cronies.
Trafford is probably least Reform friendly in my view, ironically that could give the Tories some hope of a way back there if the leftist vote splits between older lefties staying Lab and younger ones going Green.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
This is quite a good study on the socio-economics, though it's five years out of date now (in which time I would suggest 'the same, only more so' - I was quite taken aback to hear Gorton is now 40% ABC1) Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
Electoral calculus has a summary of seat demographics, not sure how accurate EC is? Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
Since you can't take it with you, it's a safe way to see out your days. I suspect the main issue comes from the inheritors who get upset that they didn't get enough in the will.
I've never come across Matt Goodwin to my recollection but he seems to have been chosen because of his academic connections to Manchester. He's plainly not a local candidate, first thing i watched after googling him was a rant on GB News about how he no longer recognises London as the city he's spent most of his life living in.
May not matter ultimately but you'd think Labour will surely choose someone from the constituency?
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
Top trolling from Farage!!
Sending Goodwin into Manchester Uni's Rob Ford's backyard to be candidate for Reform.
iirc Ford and Goodwin no longer speak despite writing a book together ten years ago. Ford thinks he is beyond the pale these days.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
But tbh are redeemed by pies.
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
Oh, yes, I don't mean Wigan = bad (by most measures its doing better than Rochdale, Oldham or Tameside) - just that it's a bit semi-detached and behaves to its own patterns.
I've drawn some blobs on the map to show what I mean: black blobs for the traditionally 'good' areas, red to illustrate Denton and Gorton:
Interesting. And constant change as the jobs mix in Manchester changes as well I guess. Lots more tech firms, consultants, media types, and civil servants these days in the city centre. And they must be inventing new commuter hubs to live in.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The problem for the populist nationalist right across the western world is it can get to 20-30% with little problem.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
This is partly true but I think it is about to change. Demography is destiny. Europeans have had enough of Muslim immigration fundamentally changing European societies (for the worse, in many many cases) and in the end they will hold their noses and vote for anyone that will stop it and hopefully reverse it
It’s not pretty. Indeed it’s tragic. Shouldn’t have come to this. But that’s where many European countries are today and I can’t honestly see a way around it. Unless leftwing parties become the Danish social democrats and start bulldozing ethnic neighbourhoods
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Reform now ARE the Tories, just the Truss 2022 Tories and Jenrick backing Tories.
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
I've never come across Matt Goodwin to my recollection but he seems to have been chosen because of his academic connections to Manchester. He's plainly not a local candidate, first thing i watched after googling him was a rant on GB News about how he no longer recognises London as the city he's spent most of his life living in.
May not matter ultimately but you'd think Labour will surely choose someone from the constituency?
He spent his career at Kent Uni as far as I am aware.
About as far from Manchester as you can get in UK.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
The Tories still have Kemi, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Sunak, Redwood, Heseltine, Clarke, Davis, Davidson, Portillo, Cameron, Osborne, Boris, May, Major, Hague, Howard, Patel etc.
The Tories have lost...Nadine Dorries, Robert Jenrick, Jake Berry, Andrea Jenkyns, Andrew Rosindell, Nadine Dorries, Suella Braverman, Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley, Mark Reckless, Ann Widdecombe, Tim Montgomerie and Danny Kruger etc.
I think on the scale of talent of the 2 the former is pretty top heavy, with the possible exceptions of Widdecombe, Kruger and Montgomerie
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
The Tories still have Kemi, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Sunak, Redwood, Heseltine, Clarke, Davidson, Portillo, Cameron, Osborne, Boris, May, Major, Hague, Howard, Patel etc.
The Tories have lost...Nadine Dorries, Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell, Nadine Dorries, Suella Braverman, Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson, Mark Reckless, Tim Montgomerie and Danny Kruger.
I think on the scale of talent of the 2 the former is pretty top heavy, with the possible exceptions of Kruger and Montgomerie
All the people in your first list are about 109 years old. Indeed some of them are dead
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The problem for the populist nationalist right across the western world is it can get to 20-30% with little problem.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
This is partly true but I think it is about to change. Demography is destiny. Europeans have had enough of Muslim immigration fundamentally changing European societies (for the worse, in many many cases) and in the end they will hold their noses and vote for anyone that will stop it and hopefully reverse it
It’s not pretty. Indeed it’s tragic. Shouldn’t have come to this. But that’s where many European countries are today and I can’t honestly see a way around it. Unless leftwing parties become the Danish social democrats and start bulldozing ethnic neighbourhoods
You’re out of date. Right across Europe, the magic words are going to be “they sound just like Trump and they are soft on Russia”. The window for the far right is closing again, and you can see that in real elections.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
This is quite a good study on the socio-economics, though it's five years out of date now (in which time I would suggest 'the same, only more so' - I was quite taken aback to hear Gorton is now 40% ABC1) Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
Electoral calculus has a summary of seat demographics, not sure how accurate EC is? Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
It's worth remembering however, that D&G will be won on about 30%. It therefore matters less if it's less Brexity than average - but whether Reform can get that Brexity 40% to vote for it. If 60% of the seat is not at all Brexity but the 40% that is Brexity is very Brexity then Reform are home and hosed. And you can of course apply the same argument to the angry young lefties for the Green parties or the Islamonutters for the Galloway mob.
FWIW, I still think the Greens are the narrow winners.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Reform now ARE the Tories, just the Truss 2022 Tories and Jenrick backing Tories.
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
Though thanks for your comments
..
It is worth pointing out that Braverman was so useless she was actually fired by Truss for misconduct.
Not crashing the economy. Or being a muppet.
Actual misconduct in a public office.
Rishi Sunak’s decision to reappoint her scarcely a week later was one sign things would not end well for him.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The problem for the populist nationalist right across the western world is it can get to 20-30% with little problem.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
This is partly true but I think it is about to change. Demography is destiny. Europeans have had enough of Muslim immigration fundamentally changing European societies (for the worse, in many many cases) and in the end they will hold their noses and vote for anyone that will stop it and hopefully reverse it
It’s not pretty. Indeed it’s tragic. Shouldn’t have come to this. But that’s where many European countries are today and I can’t honestly see a way around it. Unless leftwing parties become the Danish social democrats and start bulldozing ethnic neighbourhoods
You’re out of date. Right across Europe, the magic words are going to be “they sound just like Trump and they are soft on Russia”. The window for the far right is closing again, and you can see that in real elections.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
Nope. The party will change and adapt. Like Labour after the exodus of Jenkins, Owen, Williams, to the SDP. And there is no-one in Reform remotely of their class.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
The problem for the populist nationalist right across the western world is it can get to 20-30% with little problem.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
This is partly true but I think it is about to change. Demography is destiny. Europeans have had enough of Muslim immigration fundamentally changing European societies (for the worse, in many many cases) and in the end they will hold their noses and vote for anyone that will stop it and hopefully reverse it
It’s not pretty. Indeed it’s tragic. Shouldn’t have come to this. But that’s where many European countries are today and I can’t honestly see a way around it. Unless leftwing parties become the Danish social democrats and start bulldozing ethnic neighbourhoods
You’re out of date. Right across Europe, the magic words are going to be “they sound just like Trump and they are soft on Russia”. The window for the far right is closing again, and you can see that in real elections.
“The window for the far right is closing again, and you can see that in real elections.”
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
The Tories still have Kemi, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Sunak, Redwood, Heseltine, Clarke, Davidson, Portillo, Cameron, Osborne, Boris, May, Major, Hague, Howard, Patel etc.
The Tories have lost...Nadine Dorries, Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell, Nadine Dorries, Suella Braverman, Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson, Mark Reckless, Tim Montgomerie and Danny Kruger.
I think on the scale of talent of the 2 the former is pretty top heavy, with the possible exceptions of Kruger and Montgomerie
All the people in your first list are about 109 years old. Indeed some of them are dead
Kemi, Sunak, Osborne, Cleverly, Patel, Hague, Davidson certainly aren't indeed they are younger than some defectors to Reform like Ann Widdecombe and Rosindell
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
This is quite a good study on the socio-economics, though it's five years out of date now (in which time I would suggest 'the same, only more so' - I was quite taken aback to hear Gorton is now 40% ABC1) Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
Electoral calculus has a summary of seat demographics, not sure how accurate EC is? Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
It's worth remembering however, that D&G will be won on about 30%. It therefore matters less if it's less Brexity than average - but whether Reform can get that Brexity 40% to vote for it. If 60% of the seat is not at all Brexity but the 40% that is Brexity is very Brexity then Reform are home and hosed. And you can of course apply the same argument to the angry young lefties for the Green parties or the Islamonutters for the Galloway mob.
FWIW, I still think the Greens are the narrow winners.
I agree. I’d have Greens slight favourites here
It’s stupid. Goodwin is an excellent candidate. He will get the taint of loser
If he does lose, hopefully he can find a better seat for the GE, and learn from the experience
Indeed maybe that’s the plan. He’s new to actual politics. This is like his first training scuba dive in the sea. You stay in the shallows
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Surprised to see you advocating asset theft.
It's an asset class that should never have existed in the first place, similar to water companies. Ending a gravy train isn't asset theft.
A friend got in touch about this and was positively excited. She asked if it was retrospective as she has just paid a large ground rent. Apparently they are massiverly unpopular in her block where they even have another charge when you move.
'Starmer gets rid of Rachmanism!' has got a nice vote winning ring to it.
Is this a McCarthy and Stone type of old people residents block ?
I don't know McCarthy and Stone or what they are but she's not old and the block she lives in is quite new and very nice
To over-simplify slightly, they develop blocks for the over 55s.
Fun to have Max and Roger on the same page on an issue (and me, FWIW). (Which almost certainly means it's got almost no chance of the government picking this one up.)
Put me down for disagreeing. The M&S approach does cost the client but those costs are clearly set out beforehand and the company are well enough established for DYOR. Suggesting the state should somehow interfere in yet another property issue is an invite to them and subsequent governments to move to more interference in a contract between parties. There is no imbalance only a lot of post cognitive dissonance about the contract they read but want to interpret in a different way. You might describe this as Trumpian.
The perceived issue with ‘retirement properties’ isn’t generally to do with ground rent, it’s related to very high service charges.
My grandmother lived out her days in a McCarthy and Stone flat in a little village outside Manchester. She absolutely loved it.
Since you can't take it with you, it's a safe way to see out your days. I suspect the main issue comes from the inheritors who get upset that they didn't get enough in the will.
Two experiences: My wife had an aunt who lived in a McCarthy & Stone flat. She was increasing unhappy with the arrangements and sadly she needed more care than they could or would provide so moved to a care home. Bro-in-law had the devil of a job selling the flat and certainly didn't get what he, or his aunt, expected. An elderly cousin (90+) and her husband lived in a retirement village and loved it. The husband died last spring, and my cousin died a few months later. I don't know (yet?) how e daughter has got on with the property.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Reform now ARE the Tories, just the Truss 2022 Tories and Jenrick backing Tories.
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
Though thanks for your comments
..
True about Team Truss and Farage, Jenrick and Braverman told Boris to resign though in summer 2022, hence Boris is still staying Tory.
As are most of the most loyal to Boris Cabinet ministers from 2022 like Cleverly, Patel and Rees Mogg
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
Before you get too excited, let's see him actually perform in the cauldron of a by-election circus.
He often seems quite testy to me when actually questioned on TV about his views (rather then when he is just standing at a mic giving a polemic).
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
Nope. The party will change and adapt. Like Labour after the exodus of Jenkins, Owen, Williams, to the SDP. And there is no-one in Reform remotely of their class.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
This is quite a good study on the socio-economics, though it's five years out of date now (in which time I would suggest 'the same, only more so' - I was quite taken aback to hear Gorton is now 40% ABC1) Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
Electoral calculus has a summary of seat demographics, not sure how accurate EC is? Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
It's worth remembering however, that D&G will be won on about 30%. It therefore matters less if it's less Brexity than average - but whether Reform can get that Brexity 40% to vote for it. If 60% of the seat is not at all Brexity but the 40% that is Brexity is very Brexity then Reform are home and hosed. And you can of course apply the same argument to the angry young lefties for the Green parties or the Islamonutters for the Galloway mob.
FWIW, I still think the Greens are the narrow winners.
D&G was 50% Leave not 40%, I think Reform or Labour are more likely winners than the Greens
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
But tbh are redeemed by pies.
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
Oh, yes, I don't mean Wigan = bad (by most measures its doing better than Rochdale, Oldham or Tameside) - just that it's a bit semi-detached and behaves to its own patterns.
I've drawn some blobs on the map to show what I mean: black blobs for the traditionally 'good' areas, red to illustrate Denton and Gorton:
The colour scheme on the map should have been the other way round. Blue for the more professional nicer areas (and city centre), red for the sh1tholes to avoid! 😀
Interesting anyway and pleased to see i live in one of your black circles. (I think you could have added a few more)
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
Nope. The party will change and adapt. Like Labour after the exodus of Jenkins, Owen, Williams, to the SDP. And there is no-one in Reform remotely of their class.
Reform are a PROTEST party.
Jesus. You’re tragic
Any life that involves a crucifixion and the murder of divers family members could certainly be regarded as fairly tragic.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
Before you get too excited, let's see him actually perform in the cauldron of a by-election circus.
He often seems quite testy to me when actually questioned on TV about his views (rather then when he is just standing at a mic giving a polemic).
Yes. He has a prickliness which he needs to smooth over. But then again, if British politics was about personal charm HOW THE F DID WE END UP WITH STARMER
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
Nope. The party will change and adapt. Like Labour after the exodus of Jenkins, Owen, Williams, to the SDP. And there is no-one in Reform remotely of their class.
Reform are a PROTEST party.
Jesus. You’re tragic
If the Faragistas really wanted to take over the levers of power they should have done what Trump did - and take over the established party of the right.
Instead of that, they have SPLIT the pro-Brexit nativist strand of right-wing opinion into two. A huge blunder.
Kemi Badenoch is a far more impressive Brexiteer and culture warrior than Jenrick - the supposed upcoming star of Reform - who is just a shape-shifter. Christ, he even vote Remain and campaigned with Ken Clarke.
Comments
Lord knows how it's all going to pan out but - assuming I'm not teaching my grandmother to suck eggs - worth reading some commentary on:
- unwind of the Yen carry trade;
- Trumpian policy as discussed in this paper re "The Mar-a-Lago Accord": https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
I’m just not sure, at all, that he’s chosen the right seat. And after you lose once it can get harder
We’ll see
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
It's why my parents bought one managed by ExtraCare Charitable Trust - on death they buy the flat back at the price you paid for it.
ICE now appears to be using the LRAD (long range acoustic device) weapon at close range against peaceful protesters in Minneapolis.
People exposed, especially at close range often suffer from:
•permanent hearing loss
•tinnitus (constant ringing)
•ruptured eardrums
•vertigo & balance problems
•migraines & nausea
•panic responses
https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/2016107450139611589
Furthermore, that service charge is still payable by the estates of deceased leaseholders until the leasehold is sold, whereas the rent ceases upon the estate fulfilling the termination notice period for rented flats.
(*Although tbf a hefty rent increase has just been proposed but the tenants are resisting because suitable tenants are in short supply and, of course the landlords can't sell the flat because of high service charges.)
Deleted the tweets with bad predictions then aftertimed like mad. People kept the screenshots.
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
It is very good, describing what is going on on the ground.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Washington signalled Kyiv would receive more backing if — as the price of peace with Russia — it agreed to withdraw its forces from the Donbas region, said people familiar with talks.
https://x.com/FT/status/2016045325421539793
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
snivelling little shitperfect refUK candidateAs to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
It's like care homes, the economics work when it's a new build and start to fall apart as things age..
Goodwin is easily capable of winning a seat for Reform. Somewhere in eastern or coastal England he’d be a dead cert. But affluent-ish Manchester? Hmm
I worry he’s got carried away by the idea of a national cockpit - and he will lose
A dangerous man IMHO.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
Reform, the party for Tories you loved to hate!! The Alan B'Stard's of today
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
Though thanks for your comments
The former don't need or want to rent, the latter can't afford the levels of rents retirement homes would like to charge (even with Housing Benefit) and in any case are often settled in secure social housing.
If you're a homeowner who wants to downsize to an over-55 community there is a good argument for selling up, investing the proceeds, and renting one of these flats with the income, but psychologically it's a difficult step.
Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics: https://citygeographics.org/2022/12/15/tracking-gentrification-in-london-and-manchester-using-the-2021-census-occupational-class-data/
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were:
1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
So he’s a racist scumbag.
1 Farage wanted clever people, real experience, able to shake things up, but they all turned him down. So he's making do with who he can get.
2 Farage has got high on his supply; he's doing so well in the polls that he thinks that he can do whatever he wants.
3 Farage has got high on his supply; he thinks that bringing in all the worst of the Johnsonite gang will make him more popular.
4 RefUK is Springtime For Hitler reimagined as a political party, and Nigel is now trying ever-harder to make it fail because he cannot risk it suceeding.
If Farage fails to win most seats at the next GE and fails to become PM I could see most of the ex Tory Reformers eventually ending back in the Tories while Reform would be taken over by Lowe and Tommy Robinson nationalist types and probably merge with AdvanceUK
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
However to get to 35-40%+ ie the levels it needs to get a majority is far more difficult and it also faces tactical voting against it and as has happened in France even if it wins the first round in 2 round systems is defeated when it gets to the final 2
The Italians are not happy...
Are they by any chance related?
Footsie bubble due to Reeves ramping!
Gilt rates fall. Reeves eyes borrowing binge!
Growth up under Reeves. But is it real?
Reeves hails rebound in jobs despite it having nothing to do with her.
I've drawn some blobs on the map to show what I mean: black blobs for the traditionally 'good' areas, red to illustrate Denton and Gorton:
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
People seem to assume they are all to be avoided as if they are 1970s care homes.
Trafford is ever more young affluent professional, as the trendy South Manchester clan extends out of the city itself, and thus has gone from the Tory flagship (and sometimes their only) metro borough of the north to a bellweather Tory/Lab battleground, to now increasingly comfortable for Labour - but surely threatened by the Greens. I'd say Trafford and the leftier/ younger professional parts of Stockport which would have happily seen Corbyn in No10 are very ripe for plundering by Zack and his cronies.
Trafford is probably least Reform friendly in my view, ironically that could give the Tories some hope of a way back there if the leftist vote splits between older lefties staying Lab and younger ones going Green.
Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
May not matter ultimately but you'd think Labour will surely choose someone from the constituency?
Sending Goodwin into Manchester Uni's Rob Ford's backyard to be candidate for Reform.
iirc Ford and Goodwin no longer speak despite writing a book together ten years ago. Ford thinks he is beyond the pale these days.
It’s not pretty. Indeed it’s tragic. Shouldn’t have come to this. But that’s where many European countries are today and I can’t honestly see a way around it. Unless leftwing parties become the Danish social democrats and start bulldozing ethnic neighbourhoods
“Swindon bidding to become UK City of Culture”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7y8d7pg29o
About as far from Manchester as you can get in UK.
The Tories have lost...Nadine Dorries, Robert Jenrick, Jake Berry, Andrea Jenkyns, Andrew Rosindell, Nadine Dorries, Suella Braverman, Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley, Mark Reckless, Ann Widdecombe, Tim Montgomerie and Danny Kruger etc.
I think on the scale of talent of the 2 the former is pretty top heavy, with the possible exceptions of Widdecombe, Kruger and Montgomerie
But it won’t work unless they can actually find some serious recruits.
FWIW, I still think the Greens are the narrow winners.
Not crashing the economy. Or being a muppet.
Actual misconduct in a public office.
Rishi Sunak’s decision to reappoint her scarcely a week later was one sign things would not end well for him.
Reform are a PROTEST party.
Any bits of supportive evidence?
It’s stupid. Goodwin is an excellent candidate. He will get the taint of loser
If he does lose, hopefully he can find a better seat for the GE, and learn from the experience
Indeed maybe that’s the plan. He’s new to actual politics. This is like his first training scuba dive in the sea. You stay in the shallows
An elderly cousin (90+) and her husband lived in a retirement village and loved it. The husband died last spring, and my cousin died a few months later. I don't know (yet?) how e daughter has got on with the property.
As are most of the most loyal to Boris Cabinet ministers from 2022 like Cleverly, Patel and Rees Mogg
He often seems quite testy to me when actually questioned on TV about his views (rather then when he is just standing at a mic giving a polemic).
Interesting anyway and pleased to see i live in one of your black circles. (I think you could have added a few more)
I’m sorely tempted to say Yes, TBH
They are called Border agents but also trained body guards to Americans over seas. And many Italians are not bothered.
Hungary's centre-right opposition is keeping a 10 percentage point lead in opinion polls versus Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party,
@reuters.com reports.
https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3mdg24nltks2b
Instead of that, they have SPLIT the pro-Brexit nativist strand of right-wing opinion into two. A huge blunder.
Kemi Badenoch is a far more impressive Brexiteer and culture warrior than Jenrick - the supposed upcoming star of Reform - who is just a shape-shifter. Christ, he even vote Remain and campaigned with Ken Clarke.
Gavin Williamson on Reform defection watch reports James Tapsfield
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service