PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Sigh.
If and when Farage goes - probably after an indecisive GE in 2029 which excludes him from No 10 - what then for Reform? Which of the "senior" members will drive the project forward? Jenrick? Braverman? Tice? Yusuf? Jeez.
At a more local level, I know some of the people who have gone over to Reform. Double-jeez.
No matter how bludgeoned the Tories are, they will survive, and eventually, sooner or later, they will be back. The brand - despite Truss/Boris - is too strong to die.
What to do with comments this retarded? Where are Nineveh and Tyre? Everything dies. The Tory party is gleefully offloading all its more talented right wingers (along with some genuine nutters) and somehow… celebrating?!
They’re like a left footed football player who strokes lovely goals with that talented left foot, celebrating the fact that their right leg is being amputated, but this is v positive coz now they can really focus on what they’re good at
The Tories still have Kemi, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Sunak, Redwood, Heseltine, Clarke, Davis, Davidson, Portillo, Cameron, Osborne, Boris, May, Major, Hague, Howard, Patel etc.
The Tories have lost...Nadine Dorries, Robert Jenrick, Jake Berry, Andrea Jenkyns, Andrew Rosindell, Nadine Dorries, Suella Braverman, Jonathan Gullis, Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley, Mark Reckless, Ann Widdecombe, Tim Montgomerie and Danny Kruger etc.
I think on the scale of talent of the 2 the former is pretty top heavy, with the possible exceptions of Widdecombe, Kruger and Montgomerie
I was totally with you until the word 'Widdecombe' in your last sentence.
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
But tbh are redeemed by pies.
Interesting, thanks. I think it might surprise lazy commentators.
Oh, yes, I don't mean Wigan = bad (by most measures its doing better than Rochdale, Oldham or Tameside) - just that it's a bit semi-detached and behaves to its own patterns.
I've drawn some blobs on the map to show what I mean: black blobs for the traditionally 'good' areas, red to illustrate Denton and Gorton:
Interesting. And constant change as the jobs mix in Manchester changes as well I guess. Lots more tech firms, consultants, media types, and civil servants these days in the city centre. And they must be inventing new commuter hubs to live in.
Very much so. There's a map of where those are in the article. To a large extent it's those areas which were already middle-class-ish but perhaps not the absolute top areas. Conversely, the big towns north and east of Manchester (Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham and Ashton) have stood still. Bury, and to a lesser extent Bolton, weren't the worst places in the world to start with, but when those towns were sad husks to start with (Rochdale - slogan - at least we're not Oldham) this is unfortunate.
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
How is “defection watch” actually conducted by anyone? Do you hire a private detective with a camera? Go through the recycling bins at 3 in the morning? Sneak into their Parliament office and photograph their diary?
Has anyone done a proper analysis of the GM voter demographics? I am guessing not much was done previously because one could just assume a Labour win.
At the top level it seems to be Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and Wigan. And those places are quite different from one another. For example I could imagine an effective green campaign based on young professionals in Manchester and NIMBYs in some of the others.
This is quite a good study on the socio-economics, though it's five years out of date now (in which time I would suggest 'the same, only more so' - I was quite taken aback to hear Gorton is now 40% ABC1) Tracking Gentrification in London and Manchester Using the 2021 Census Occupational Class Data – CityGeographics
In general I'd say you're correct - though to some extent you don't really need to consider the boroughs; just think that as you get further from Manchester City Centre, the voting population gets older (balanced very slightly by more children).
It used to be that the nice bits were: 1) the south western wedge (Chorlton-Sale-Altrincham)
2) the south-eastern wedge, curling round the bottom of Stockport (Didsbury-the Heatons-Cheadle-Bramhall-Hazel Grove)
3) Prestwich on a good day
4) The odd blob of outer northern GM: Saddleworth, Worsley, Norden, Bamford, the northern fringes of Bolton
...but it is a lot more complex now: bad areas have become middling; middling areas have become good, the city centre is the most attractive place in the world to 20 somethings, Stockport town centre is the new Berlin.
Anything which goes on in Wigan is almost entirely a separate consideration.
Electoral calculus has a summary of seat demographics, not sure how accurate EC is? Less Brexit, home owner and younger than UK average, suggesting it's not Reform. Clacton for an extreme comparison is older by 10 years, homeowning and strongly Brexit. Both are substantially poorer and working class.
It's worth remembering however, that D&G will be won on about 30%. It therefore matters less if it's less Brexity than average - but whether Reform can get that Brexity 40% to vote for it. If 60% of the seat is not at all Brexity but the 40% that is Brexity is very Brexity then Reform are home and hosed. And you can of course apply the same argument to the angry young lefties for the Green parties or the Islamonutters for the Galloway mob.
FWIW, I still think the Greens are the narrow winners.
I agree. I’d have Greens slight favourites here
It’s stupid. Goodwin is an excellent candidate. He will get the taint of loser
If he does lose, hopefully he can find a better seat for the GE, and learn from the experience
Indeed maybe that’s the plan. He’s new to actual politics. This is like his first training scuba dive in the sea. You stay in the shallows
Really? You don't know much about politics, do you?
Choosing to put an untested tyro (if that's what you consider him) into a by-election like this, which will be a contentious, high stakes, media frenzy is a pretty novel approach. Not sure what Big Dom would think of it.
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
How is “defection watch” actually conducted by anyone? Do you hire a private detective with a camera? Go through the recycling bins at 3 in the morning? Sneak into their Parliament office and photograph their diary?
In Gavin Williamson’s case, just give him the password.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
Solid media performer. Stands a good chance
Impressively smart man. Would make a good minister
Fair play to Farage, he’s done his homework this time and recruiting genuine talent
Only problem, Goodwin needs to win and this isn’t natural Reform territory. Hmm
Seems to be on a JD Vance type trajectory. Just what we need.
Goodwin used to be in the organisation "Hope not Hate" ..🤨 I wonder why no-one in the mainstream media picks up on his seemingly Damascene conversion..🧐😏
He and Jenrick have both "been on a journey".. to be fair, I went from being an idealistic lefty as a teenager to a UKIP member in my thirties, so I am in no position to question their authenticity. When I saw Jenrick's press conference last week it came to mind that he and Goodwin have a similar way of speaking, a kind of overbite perhaps?
Academic turned formidable polemicist. Of the sort that can turn terrible; when someone who is clever enough to see the strength, depth and width, and the weakness, shallowness and narrowness of a range of arguments then turns his attention to the strong points of a narrow range with precision fact selection. Which is exactly what he now does very well, better on the whole SFAICS than any of the Trumpians over the pond.
A dangerous man IMHO.
He reminds me of a British Bardella, but smarter
This is a good thing. The populist right must triumph everywhere and wreak great vengeance on the traitors
You sound like a Marxist student, chanting slogans.
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
How is “defection watch” actually conducted by anyone? Do you hire a private detective with a camera? Go through the recycling bins at 3 in the morning? Sneak into their Parliament office and photograph their diary?
Read that as defecation watch - getting rid of the sh*ts.
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
If Sir Gav really is the next to go, then number of forced resignations/sackings seems to be the best metric for predicting Reform transfers.
And must surely put Lord Mandelson firmly in the frame for being the fabled Labour defector. (In fact, the more I think about it...)
Now that erstwhile Prince Andrew has lost his titles, I wonder if he'll be a possible Reform recruit: a good man brought down by the liberal establishment elite and especially that eco-lunatic king bloke. It makes a kind of twisted sense.
I remember in the late 80s, comedy sketches on telly on the subject of hahaha isn't it hilarious that Glasgow will be European City of Culture. And now look at the place. The point of these things is to give a bit of a nudge to places which go a bit under the radar, rather than to give it to, I don't know, Stratford upon Avon which is already firmly on the map of the culturalists.
America is bringing its ugliest stain to the Games.
— Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala: “This is a militia that kills, a militia that enters into the homes of people, signing their own permission slips. It is clear they are not welcome in Milan, without a doubt.”
The executive of the Tribune Group, representing more than 100 Labour MPs plus some lords, has written to Shabana Mahmood, chair of Labour’s ruling NEC, expressing “disappointment” that Andy Burnham was barred from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The signatory was Yuan Yang on behalf of Tribune
I remember in the late 80s, comedy sketches on telly on the subject of hahaha isn't it hilarious that Glasgow will be European City of Culture. And now look at the place. The point of these things is to give a bit of a nudge to places which go a bit under the radar, rather than to give it to, I don't know, Stratford upon Avon which is already firmly on the map of the culturalists.
It is ironic to reflect that one place that could legitimately be called a City of Culture even though we would all fall about laughing at the mere idea is Stoke on Trent.
Bizarrely, it also gets more tourists than Shrewsbury, which always astonishes me.
I remember in the late 80s, comedy sketches on telly on the subject of hahaha isn't it hilarious that Glasgow will be European City of Culture. And now look at the place. The point of these things is to give a bit of a nudge to places which go a bit under the radar, rather than to give it to, I don't know, Stratford upon Avon which is already firmly on the map of the culturalists.
It is ironic to reflect that one place that could legitimately be called a City of Culture even though we would all fall about laughing at the mere idea is Stoke on Trent.
Bizarrely, it also gets more tourists than Shrewsbury, which always astonishes me.
There's no Emma Bridgewater factory in Shrewsbury for women of a certain age to make pilgrimage to.
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
How is “defection watch” actually conducted by anyone? Do you hire a private detective with a camera? Go through the recycling bins at 3 in the morning? Sneak into their Parliament office and photograph their diary?
I assume in most recent cases, it's been someone waiting with the champagne ready to pop.
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Loyally is something these defections have no idea off
Just charlatans who had no future in the conservative party, and think hugging [literally in Braverman's case] Farage and his Trump tribute act is the way to save their egotistical careers
I may disagree with @HYUFD on occasions, but give me his loyallty every time
And by the way, the conservative party will not die; come back in 3 years and you will be eating your words
oh no not gavin williamson, the most beloved tory mp since er suella braverman, seriously is Kemi paying Farage for this service
If Sir Gav really is the next to go, then number of forced resignations/sackings seems to be the best metric for predicting Reform transfers.
And must surely put Lord Mandelson firmly in the frame for being the fabled Labour defector. (In fact, the more I think about it...)
Now that erstwhile Prince Andrew has lost his titles, I wonder if he'll be a possible Reform recruit: a good man brought down by the liberal establishment elite and especially that eco-lunatic king bloke. It makes a kind of twisted sense.
There's the poignant appeal of 'Forces veteran kicked out of his house' too. And for what? Simply behaving like a man.
@jaheale.bsky.social · 4m New: Reform UK unveil Matt Goodwin as their candidate for Denton and Gorton
That's not funny.
Jokes have to be vaguely plausible. And surely no party would be mad enough to have Matt Goodwin as a a candidate in a random seat in the North.
Why, that's the sort of party that would hire discredited total failures like Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman, and Reform have been consistent in refusing to work with the...oh gosh.
Fast forward to the next election:
“You Tories crashed the economy”.
“No, Liz Truss did and we’ve got rid of all her mob to Reform. For God’s sake don’t let them back in. We are the ones who can manage the economy”.
Brand Liz Truss as a retrospective Reform Government and use Farage’s praise from the time to land the point.
Yeah. That’s gonna work
Jesus Christ you people are THICK
Farage is the first leader in modern british political history to deliberately “toxify” his party. He had a chance to bring in clever people with real experience and shake things up, but he said “nah, Braverman and Dorries will do for me”.
As to the intelligence point, I came here for the ten minute argument. Abuse and demagoguery is next door.
Four possibilities I can think of. 1 Farage wanted clever people, real experience, able to shake things up, but they all turned him down. So he's making do with who he can get. 2 Farage has got high on his supply; he's doing so well in the polls that he thinks that he can do whatever he wants. 3 Farage has got high on his supply; he thinks that bringing in all the worst of the Johnsonite gang will make him more popular. 4 RefUK is Springtime For Hitler reimagined as a political party, and Nigel is now trying ever-harder to make it fail because he cannot risk it suceeding.
On the changes to the leasehold system, I've rarely seen such unanimous support for ending it completely. The government needs to put two fingers up at the "investors" and move to completely eliminate ground rents. The leeches can put their money into equities rather than these nonsense asset classes that carry no risk.
Yes - the problem with the £250 cap is that this doesn’t deal with the control of the building. Service charges will just rise to compensate.
Mind you, the furious escalation in building and maintenance costs is real. In my old block of flats, it was all freehold. So we ran it through a committee. The last couple of years, things like painting have doubled in price. Window replacement is worse.
And this is with serious shopping around, trying to get deals - such as offering turns a rolling project to replace all the windows - multiple hundreds.
Share of freehold presumably, so you had a lease and also an equal share of the freehold. Leasehold exists for a good reason, the building has to be maintained for everyone's benefit. I had a similar SoF flat, it had been managed by volunteers, the other 80-90% of the leaseholders did sweet FA, there were large service charge arrears mainly from a few BtLs, and they'd spent 3-4 years getting nowhere on a roof replacement. When I joined the committee the others had determined to appoint a local estate agent as managing agent who were predictably useless, it took 3-4 years to get rid and appoint a competent managing agency. The woman assigned to us was very competent, we got back a good proportion of the arrears and 2-3 reasonable quotes for maintenance work were sourced in days. I was still very relieved when I sold up and could leave the board, almost their first act when I left was to fall out with the managing agent and when I passed I saw some 20 year olds wandering round the front garden with notebooks that they'd appointed instead.
Brief summary, shortlist, interview, visit the properties they manage and then appoint a proper managing agent. It'll save money, time, stress and legal liabilities.
I've had a very poor leasehold experience in the past (including being foolish enough to organise the building into buying out the freehold, which took forever -- in retrospect I should have just sold up and got out early instead). Yes, the building has to be maintained for everyone's benefit, and some of the problems of a shared building are just inevitable as not everybody agrees or has the funds or wants to pay their share. But I think leasehold makes this worse as it introduces a third party -- the freeholder -- who has very little interest in the condition of the building or what it's like to live there, as they are just treating it as a source of income. Ours did basically nothing beyond the absolute bare minimum critical items, and were a big firm that you could find a ton of complaints about online.
The setups I've heard about in the occasional news article where a single occupant building that could perfectly well have been owner occupied freehold is set up with a leasehold should be banned, if they haven't been already.
On your last point 100%
As to the problem of non-resident freeholders - yes, this a big part of it.
Being able to hire and fire the management company is vital, I think.
The big hole in the proposals is the lack of a practical way of doing it.
It is afaics being dumped in the lap of volunteers for especially smaller buildings, and I think we will have another round of similarly vehement complaints, and confusion, and cynical exploitation, in 10 or 20 years.
I've rented leasehold flats several times, but I've never made the mistake of buying one, which I think can work but there are many more wheels which can potentially fall off.
Has anyone asked him about the imbroglio of the legal situation around the Captain of the arrested oil tanker being transferred to a USA navy vessel in UK waters where a Scottish Court * says they have no jurisdiction?
I have no idea but to me it has a feel of the shenanigans where Bush and Obama fought like terriers for many years to keep the random Guantanamo detainees outside USA law. To me it all looks highly "bend over for Uncle Sam" in an Anne Sacoulas sort of way - the UK looking the other way whilst the USA changes facts in the ground, with the extradition process being completely excluded.
* But afaics they have issued an injunction to stop the UK Government transferring the captives held by the USN to United States jurisdiction, which is ludicrous..
PS Goodwin also becomes the obvious young candidate for potential leader when Farage retires to his cigar box
I suspect Jenrick and Braverman would have a few things to say about that!
Goodwin is untainted by Toryism. I’d say he automatically becomes the favourite successor
Besides, all this is good for Reform. With every serious recruit they become a more serious party of government
You may despise Goodwin, but he’s certainly not stupid and he’s highly articulate. So he’s already better than 90% of MPs
Reform are now the Tories 2nd party. The idea of Reform as a fresh and new party vanished the moment Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman defected to it. Much like the SDP ended up a retirement home for centrist ex Labour MPs who dominated its leadership until it finally merged with the Liberals.
Reform is now basically the continuity Truss and Jenrick Tory Party just with Farage still as its figurehead for now as opposed to the Conservative Party itself still the party of Sunak and Badenoch loyalists.
I don't despise Goodwin but even if he wins this by election he is not going to be in the top 3 of Reform and will not lead it either
Just desperate flailing as the Tories die. Sorry
You don’t deserve this and the Tories don’t deserve a loyal foot soldier like you
Reform now ARE the Tories, just the Truss 2022 Tories and Jenrick backing Tories.
As was pointed out yesterday there are now more members of Truss' Tory Cabinet on Farage's frontbench than there are in Kemi's Shadow Cabinet!
Though thanks for your comments
..
It is worth pointing out that Braverman was so useless she was actually fired by Truss for misconduct.
Not crashing the economy. Or being a muppet.
Actual misconduct in a public office.
Rishi Sunak’s decision to reappoint her scarcely a week later was one sign things would not end well for him.
I believe Truss forced Braverman to resign with some relief, because Braverman was pushing hard for immigration to be lowered, and that would have resulted in the OBR slashing their growth forecasts, and Truss having no room for manoeuvre on the economy.
Comments
It doesn't really matter who wins between the Greens and Reform and in some ways it might be better to come second and avoid hubris going into May.
And that Tristram Spielman.
Choosing to put an untested tyro (if that's what you consider him) into a by-election like this, which will be a contentious, high stakes, media frenzy is a pretty novel approach. Not sure what Big Dom would think of it.
You ask ‘Huawei and will you join us?’
And must surely put Lord Mandelson firmly in the frame for being the fabled Labour defector. (In fact, the more I think about it...)
They're well and truly fucked.
Anyway, he’s a good debater however he’s said some pretty bad things like black British people aren’t English.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Order_Act_1936
America is bringing its ugliest stain to the Games.
—
Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala:
“This is a militia that kills, a militia that enters into the homes of people, signing their own permission slips. It is clear they are not welcome in Milan, without a doubt.”
https://bsky.app/profile/sarahspain.com/post/3mdg4hxwcek2m
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfdQYdF-vsM
The executive of the Tribune Group, representing more than 100 Labour MPs plus some lords, has written to Shabana Mahmood, chair of Labour’s ruling NEC, expressing “disappointment” that Andy Burnham was barred from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The signatory was Yuan Yang on behalf of Tribune
Bizarrely, it also gets more tourists than Shrewsbury, which always astonishes me.
Just charlatans who had no future in the conservative party, and think hugging [literally in Braverman's case] Farage and his Trump tribute act is the way to save their egotistical careers
I may disagree with @HYUFD on occasions, but give me his loyallty every time
And by the way, the conservative party will not die; come back in 3 years and you will be eating your words
https://www.rosewoodhotels.com/en/hong-kong
https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/2016182051418865681?s=20
NEW THREAD
It is afaics being dumped in the lap of volunteers for especially smaller buildings, and I think we will have another round of similarly vehement complaints, and confusion, and cynical exploitation, in 10 or 20 years.
I've rented leasehold flats several times, but I've never made the mistake of buying one, which I think can work but there are many more wheels which can potentially fall off.
I have no idea but to me it has a feel of the shenanigans where Bush and Obama fought like terriers for many years to keep the random Guantanamo detainees outside USA law. To me it all looks highly "bend over for Uncle Sam" in an Anne Sacoulas sort of way - the UK looking the other way whilst the USA changes facts in the ground, with the extradition process being completely excluded.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgqep9pvygko
* But afaics they have issued an injunction to stop the UK Government transferring the captives held by the USN to United States jurisdiction, which is ludicrous..