Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
This is different. Burnham's ambition lets the Fascist Putinites into the Greater Manchester Mayoralty.
Does he resign the mayoralty now or after the result ?
After he wins
And if doesn't he continues as mayor ?
Well he's burned that mostly. It's very hard to not conclude that Burnham is daft as a brush. He's politicking where noone cares. No doubt he has policies in mind that aren't worthy of the crayons he uses. Only Truss has been more useless.
Perhaps though the final destination of Labour will be making Burnham PM.
Andy Burnham would win Andrew Gwynne’s Manchester seat by a landslide rivalled by Kim Jong Un, says The Times’s chief political commentator @PatrickkMaguire.
The ghost of Patrick Gordon Walker says hello.
I think he'ill win. Gorton and Denton are not sophisticated areas but neither will they be racist. They would love to have a celeb who might become PM in their constituency.
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
That depends on how they display it. Zlatan Ibrahimović for example.
Humility is not necessarily, er, necessary, but disguising ambition and narcissism can be important to be likeable.
I don't get a massive ego vibe from Burnham, though as a senior politician I'm sure he has one, that kind of self-belief is useful to get ahead.
Just looking at this from the outside and from a position of scorn for all party systems.
Is it not possible that this is just a basic belief that Starmer is leading Labour and the Country in the wrong direction and that he believes he can do a better job? Is that ambition and narcissism or just normal behaviour? In any walk of life if you think someone is doing a bad job and will elad you to disaster the you do something about it. In Vietnam they fragged their officers.
We tend to look down on people who believe they might be good in public office, hence the old gag that anyone who wants to do it should be barred from doing so. But clearly some people who think they would be pretty good at it actually will be. Many politicians are very able people, though robotic or tribal presentation can make that hard to tell sometimes.
We can only really tell if their self belief has some basis or is unearned narcissism afterwards.
If Burnham is the candidate I expect he will win. Refuk will do some tone deaf campaign (this is inner suburbia), Greens will stand a local Jonny (not Zach) and the power of Burnham compells you to vote Labour.
Same day as the locals someone suggested? Great - his first act having been sworn in will be to tell Starmer to fuck off.
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
That depends on how they display it. Zlatan Ibrahimović for example.
Humility is not necessarily, er, necessary, but disguising ambition and narcissism can be important to be likeable.
I don't get a massive ego vibe from Burnham, though as a senior politician I'm sure he has one, that kind of self-belief is useful to get ahead.
Just looking at this from the outside and from a position of scorn for all party systems.
Is it not possible that this is just a basic belief that Starmer is leading Labour and the Country in the wrong direction and that he believes he can do a better job? Is that ambition and narcissism or just normal behaviour? In any walk of life if you think someone is doing a bad job and will elad you to disaster the you do something about it. In Vietnam they fragged their officers.
We tend to look down on people who believe they might be good in public office, hence the old gag that anyone who wants to do it should be barred from doing so. But clearly some people who think they would be pretty good at it actually will be. Many politicians are very able people, though robotic or tribal presentation can make that hard to tell sometimes.
We can only really tell if their self beleif has some basis or is unearned narcissism afterwards.
If Burnham is the candidate I expect he will win. Refuk will do some tone deaf campaign (this is inner suburbia), Greens will stand a local Jonny (not Zach) and the power of Burnham compells you to vote Labour.
Same day as the locals someone suggested? Great - his first act having been sworn in will be to tell Starmer to fuck off.
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
That depends on how they display it. Zlatan Ibrahimović for example.
Humility is not necessarily, er, necessary, but disguising ambition and narcissism can be important to be likeable.
I don't get a massive ego vibe from Burnham, though as a senior politician I'm sure he has one, that kind of self-belief is useful to get ahead.
Just looking at this from the outside and from a position of scorn for all party systems.
Is it not possible that this is just a basic belief that Starmer is leading Labour and the Country in the wrong direction and that he believes he can do a better job? Is that ambition and narcissism or just normal behaviour? In any walk of life if you think someone is doing a bad job and will elad you to disaster the you do something about it. In Vietnam they fragged their officers.
Let's say you're right. What does he want to change? How is he going to fund it? What does he think the answers are to our multitude of problems? I genuinely have no idea. His platform, as far as I can work it out, is I am a much nicer bloke than that Starmer and people will therefore like me more. It's not enough. If I am wrong I would welcome the correction but right now this seems an ego trip.
So the ball is in the court of Starmer and the NEC as to whether they allow Burnham on the shortlist for the by election or not. Not allowing him on certainly risks a backlash from the voters to Reform and the Greens
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
My brother lives in Altrincham, probably the most middle-class bit of GM. Reckons Reform will struggle there. People dissatisfied with Labour are returning to Tories. Farage not popular with urban middle class.
If Labour cost the local taxpayers £5m for a new Mayoral contest they will lose both by-elections, Gorton and Denton and Greater Manchester. This is a desperate plot and will fail and deserve to. #WorkersParty,
So the ball is in the court of Starmer and the NEC as to whether they allow Burnham on the shortlist for the by election or not. Not allowing him on certainly risks a backlash from the voters to Reform and the Greens
Why on earth Reform
Apparently they are looking at appointing a Deportation Minister
Utterly disgusting with what is happening as we speak in US
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
That depends on how they display it. Zlatan Ibrahimović for example.
Humility is not necessarily, er, necessary, but disguising ambition and narcissism can be important to be likeable.
I don't get a massive ego vibe from Burnham, though as a senior politician I'm sure he has one, that kind of self-belief is useful to get ahead.
Just looking at this from the outside and from a position of scorn for all party systems.
Is it not possible that this is just a basic belief that Starmer is leading Labour and the Country in the wrong direction and that he believes he can do a better job? Is that ambition and narcissism or just normal behaviour? In any walk of life if you think someone is doing a bad job and will elad you to disaster the you do something about it. In Vietnam they fragged their officers.
Let's say you're right. What does he want to change? How is he going to fund it? What does he think the answers are to our multitude of problems? I genuinely have no idea. His platform, as far as I can work it out, is I am a much nicer bloke than that Starmer and people will therefore like me more. It's not enough. If I am wrong I would welcome the correction but right now this seems an ego trip.
What has he done differently to other mayors ?
Manchester has been the fastest growing economy whilst he has been mayor, in the whole country, much faster growth than London ?
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
Labour are going to change mayoralty elections back to the supplementary vote but that hasn’t gone through Parliament yet so this will be FPTP. If it was SV Labour would easily win but it could be closer but I’d still expect Labour to win .
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
My brother lives in Altrincham, probably the most middle-class bit of GM. Reckons Reform will struggle there. People dissatisfied with Labour are returning to Tories. Farage not popular with urban middle class.
Anyone who is a Trump sycophant like Farage needs a reckoning with the decent voters
Having taken the time to read Burnham's letter, I'm puzzled what contribution he thinks he can make as a backbencher that's greater than he can deliver as mayor of one of our great cities.
I don't think that anyone thinks that Burnham is planning on being a backbench MP for long.
A fair bit of his appeal is that he hasn't had to do anything politically unpleasant for ages. The smart thing would be to offer AB a job he can't refuse, but also dips his hands in the blood of unpopularity pretty quickly.
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
My brother lives in Altrincham, probably the most middle-class bit of GM. Reckons Reform will struggle there. People dissatisfied with Labour are returning to Tories. Farage not popular with urban middle class.
Anyone who is a Trump sycophant like Farage needs a reckoning with the decent voters
Starmer and co should refer to Reform as the British Trump Party every single day for the next three years.
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
That depends on how they display it. Zlatan Ibrahimović for example.
Humility is not necessarily, er, necessary, but disguising ambition and narcissism can be important to be likeable.
I don't get a massive ego vibe from Burnham, though as a senior politician I'm sure he has one, that kind of self-belief is useful to get ahead.
Just looking at this from the outside and from a position of scorn for all party systems.
Is it not possible that this is just a basic belief that Starmer is leading Labour and the Country in the wrong direction and that he believes he can do a better job? Is that ambition and narcissism or just normal behaviour? In any walk of life if you think someone is doing a bad job and will elad you to disaster the you do something about it. In Vietnam they fragged their officers.
Let's say you're right. What does he want to change? How is he going to fund it? What does he think the answers are to our multitude of problems? I genuinely have no idea. His platform, as far as I can work it out, is I am a much nicer bloke than that Starmer and people will therefore like me more. It's not enough. If I am wrong I would welcome the correction but right now this seems an ego trip.
» show previous quotes It is Angela Rayner and a host of labour mps pushing for him which you don't seem to like but never mind, blame the tories !!!
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Totally agree Big_G_North Wales. It is the Labour party and their grassroots and the political lobby that have become obsessed with the possibility of Andy Burnham returning to front line Westminster politics as a potential stalking horse to take on and replace Keir Starmer and there has been a real rewriting of history and bigging up of his political credentials to boot.
To be honest I think he missed his chance when he didn't take the opportunity to run in a safe Labour seat back in the 2024 GE if he was that single mindedly personally ambitious to become the next Labour leader. I suspect the voters would not take kindly to a Labour candidate so clearly using a by-election in their constituency seat as a vehicle for their personal ambitions in this way in the current febrile UK political scene. Plus, it would be a hell of risk trying to return to Westminster as a challenger to Keir Starmer's leadership while Labour's polling is so dire and you could not rely on either him or the whole Labour party turning out in any real effort to help your campaign even if you managed to get selected locally.
I found it really telling that just weeks ago Reform were calling for all defecting MPs to trigger a by-election so they could win a mandate as a local MP representing their new party, and yet neither Robert Jenrick or Andrew Rosindell with the backing of the Reform leadership are now prepared to take that gamble so have left the voters in their constituencies without a voice about their defections until the next GE. A huge political mistake that I think will backfire on both of them at the next GE what ever party polling of Reform, but then I think that Robert Jenrick blew up his own personal political career when he defected in the way he did and doing the media rounds while focussing on his petty attempts to try to rescue his reputation and reclaim the political agenda to try to justify his actions this week as far more important global and domestic issues took precedence while he did this just amplified he how diminished he had become as result.
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
Labour are going to change mayoralty elections back to the supplementary vote but that hasn’t gone through Parliament yet so this will be FPTP. If it was SV Labour would easily win but it could be closer but I’d still expect Labour to win .
Another reason there then why Burnham should have waited until later in this Parliament.
If Burnham is the candidate I expect he will win. Refuk will do some tone deaf campaign (this is inner suburbia), Greens will stand a local Jonny (not Zach) and the power of Burnham compells you to vote Labour.
Same day as the locals someone suggested? Great - his first act having been sworn in will be to tell Starmer to fuck off.
Burnham is the change of direction Labour need.
Nope, the by-election is going to be done by the end of Feb, mayoral election will then be held the same day as the local elections in Manchester so the only cost for the mayoral election is 2 ballot papers being given out rather than one.
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The GREAT and very BRAVE soldiers of the United Kingdom will always be with the United States of America! In Afghanistan, 457 died, many were badly injured, and they were among the greatest of all warriors. It’s a bond too strong to ever be broken. The U.K. Military, with tremendous Heart and Soul, is second to none (except for the U.S.A.!). We love you all, and always will! President DONALD J. TRUMP https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115951100180444245
I think the start point to take for any GM Mayoral election is the 2024 results for the county rather than the previous mayoral election and Wikipedia obliges:
So, Reform vote a couple of points above the national average and Labour about 10 points.
A generic Labour in the doldrums loses to Reform here - enough Wigans, Heywoods. Tamesides and WWC bits of the cities and towns to make it so.
But mayorals are personality votes and yes, my central assumption is that Labour would play on continuity Burnham and Reform would have enough tone deafness to throw their chances. It would all be on the campaign though.
If Labour cost the local taxpayers £5m for a new Mayoral contest they will lose both by-elections, Gorton and Denton and Greater Manchester. This is a desperate plot and will fail and deserve to. #WorkersParty,
He did a YouTube a few weeks ago saying he would not be returning to the UK. I'd hate it if he changed his mind.
I think he's got every chance of winning if he's allowed to stand and I wish him well. I find it difficult to forgive Starmer for his many 'nights of the long knives that as well as others would have taken out Diane Abbott if he hadn't faced a revolt.
His judgement has often been suspect and his ruthlessness unrelenting.
As Jeremy Thorpe once said quoting Wilfred Owen.......
"Greater love hath no man than this; that he lay down his friends for his life"
Err - lays down his life for his friends !
But we know what you mean
No. I meant it as I wrote it. I maybe should have said Thorpe 'Misquoting' Wilfred Owen......
There's a long way to go, but it's quite possible that Burnham being elected would speed up Starmer's replacement by someone other than Burnham. Funny old game, politics.
Andy Burnham would win Andrew Gwynne’s Manchester seat by a landslide rivalled by Kim Jong Un, says The Times’s chief political commentator @PatrickkMaguire.
The ghost of Patrick Gordon Walker says hello.
I think he'ill win. Gorton and Denton are not sophisticated areas but neither will they be racist. They would love to have a celeb who might become PM in their constituency.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The GREAT and very BRAVE soldiers of the United Kingdom will always be with the United States of America! In Afghanistan, 457 died, many were badly injured, and they were among the greatest of all warriors. It’s a bond too strong to ever be broken. The U.K. Military, with tremendous Heart and Soul, is second to none (except for the U.S.A.!). We love you all, and always will! President DONALD J. TRUMP https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115951100180444245
Andy Burnham would win Andrew Gwynne’s Manchester seat by a landslide rivalled by Kim Jong Un, says The Times’s chief political commentator @PatrickkMaguire.
The ghost of Patrick Gordon Walker says hello.
I think he'ill win. Gorton and Denton are not sophisticated areas but neither will they be racist. They would love to have a celeb who might become PM in their constituency.
Andy Burnham would win Andrew Gwynne’s Manchester seat by a landslide rivalled by Kim Jong Un, says The Times’s chief political commentator @PatrickkMaguire.
The ghost of Patrick Gordon Walker says hello.
I think he'ill win. Gorton and Denton are not sophisticated areas but neither will they be racist. They would love to have a celeb who might become PM in their constituency.
Reform to run Clarkson?
I'm not sure what they might find when trying to take over and run him. But sure, if you have the shock troops.
Having taken the time to read Burnham's letter, I'm puzzled what contribution he thinks he can make as a backbencher that's greater than he can deliver as mayor of one of our great cities.
I don't think that anyone thinks that Burnham is planning on being a backbench MP for long.
A fair bit of his appeal is that he hasn't had to do anything politically unpleasant for ages. The smart thing would be to offer AB a job he can't refuse, but also dips his hands in the blood of unpopularity pretty quickly.
Wonder what works best?
Health or Home for the slow strangling of his hopes.
But Chancellor would be my preference as I’d like an integrated low carbon national travel system.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
This looks like an own goal . It looks weak by Starmer . I’m not a fan of Burnham but he would be the best candidate to win that seat .
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
If I may plunder more of the constituency's musical heritage.
Burnham - from Daydream Believer to Don't Look Back In Anger in 24 hours.
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 1h The leadership of the Labour Party is not strong enough to weather the political consequences of blocking this. They will try though.
I think he's got every chance of winning if he's allowed to stand and I wish him well. I find it difficult to forgive Starmer for his many 'nights of the long knives that as well as others would have taken out Diane Abbott if he hadn't faced a revolt.
His judgement has often been suspect and his ruthlessness unrelenting.
As Jeremy Thorpe once said quoting Wilfred Owen.......
"Greater love hath no man than this; that he lay down his friends for his life"
Err - lays down his life for his friends !
But we know what you mean
No. I meant it as I wrote it. I maybe should have said Thorpe 'Misquoting' Wilfred Owen......
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The damage has already happened
The damage was done the day Trump was reelected - it's just been playing out for the last year and a bit.
In the meantime, just assume that everything out of his mouth for the next three years will be terrible. Either he does it for the attention, or he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, or - usually - both. Just like my five-year-old nephew.
So keep your Trump filter on max. That's the only way to keep sane.
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
Given a poll at the Labour conference had a Burnham led Labour surging to a 2% lead over Reform, if Burnham is selected and does win this by election it would transform UK politics overnight. It would be a matter most probably of when not if he replaces Starmer as PM before the next general election.
A Burnham return would be a disaster therefore for Farage as much as Starmer and indeed Streeting. It wouldn’t be great for Polanski either as the polling shows Burnham would squeeze the Green vote as much as the Reform vote.
It wouldn’t be too bad for Kemi and Davey though as economically Burnham is left of Starmer so the Tories can firmly take the centre right ground on the economy. Burnham was never a rejoin the EU or EEA man either so the LDs will still have most of those voters
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The GREAT and very BRAVE soldiers of the United Kingdom will always be with the United States of America! In Afghanistan, 457 died, many were badly injured, and they were among the greatest of all warriors. It’s a bond too strong to ever be broken. The U.K. Military, with tremendous Heart and Soul, is second to none (except for the U.S.A.!). We love you all, and always will! President DONALD J. TRUMP https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115951100180444245
He's no different to Jenrick. Blind ambition with no talent to back it up.
Both are Cambridge gentlemen, they have considerable talent.
Much to my disappointment, talent played little part in my Cambridge education.
Am I the only PBer to slum it in a red brick dump?
Yes and no. I'm sure you'll be drummed out by the morning
Actually despite it being Cambridge I suspect I was surrounded by more red bricks than you were. Robinson College must be the finest collection of red bricks in the country.
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
Just to add one thing to your excellent summary.
Even if Andy B does return to Westminster, there's still a fair old path between there and the Premiership. If I were a current Cabinet minister, who had toiled through the heat of the day from 2017 to 2024, I'm not sure I would welcome someone waltzing back to reap the harvest in the final hour.
In the same way that Badenoch's position was strengthened by the threat of Jenrick taking over, Starmer might become the 'stop Burnham' placeholder.
(And as for 'it will all be brilliant but I'm not telling you the mechanism', we saw that movie with Boris.)
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The damage has already happened
The damage was done the day Trump was reelected - it's just been playing out for the last year and a bit.
In the meantime, just assume that everything out of his mouth for the next three years will be terrible. Either he does it for the attention, or he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, or - usually - both. Just like my five-year-old nephew.
So keep your Trump filter on max. That's the only way to keep sane.
That seems extremely harsh. What has your five-year-old nephew done to upset you?
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
Just to add one thing to your excellent summary.
Even if Andy B does return to Westminster, there's still a fair old path between there and the Premiership. If I were a current Cabinet minister, who had toiled through the heat of the day from 2017 to 2024, I'm not sure I would welcome someone waltzing back to reap the harvest in the final hour.
In the same way that Badenoch's position was strengthened by the threat of Jenrick taking over, Starmer might become the 'stop Burnham' placeholder.
(And as for 'it will all be brilliant but I'm not telling you the mechanism', we saw that movie with Boris.)
In that respect is the person with most reason to worry would arguably be Rachel Reeves. If Burnham gets back into the Commons and needs a big job due to his profile and experience she is the one most obviously in the firing line.
While if he loses, she is the most obvious person to make a scapegoat as part of a government refresh.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
Given a poll at the Labour conference had a Burnham led Labour surging to a 2% lead over Reform, if Burnham is selected and does win this by election it would transform UK politics overnight. It would be a matter most probably of when not if he replaces Starmer as PM before the next general election.
A Burnham return would be a disaster therefore for Farage as much as Starmer and indeed Streeting. It wouldn’t be great for Polanski either as the polling shows Burnham would squeeze the Green vote as much as the Reform vote.
It wouldn’t be too bad for Kemi and Davey though as economically Burnham is left of Starmer so the Tories can firmly take the centre right ground on the economy. Burnham was never a rejoin the EU or EEA man either so the LDs will still have most of those voters
At the moment, he's a blank sheet that everyone can project their hopes onto. Therefore , he's popular. Besides, everyone loves a Mayor.
The minute he has to take decisions- bang. Same as all the others.
Having taken the time to read Burnham's letter, I'm puzzled what contribution he thinks he can make as a backbencher that's greater than he can deliver as mayor of one of our great cities.
Because he clearly has ambitions well beyond those of a backbencher, and quickly.
Of course. So it's two pages of disingenuous crap, then.
He's no different to Jenrick. Blind ambition with no talent to back it up.
Both are Cambridge gentlemen, they have considerable talent.
Much to my disappointment, talent played little part in my Cambridge education.
Am I the only PBer to slum it in a red brick dump?
No I was plate glass
I went to a small University of London college among those closed by the Thatcher cuts, and later two polytechnics. My infants, junior and comprehensive schools have also closed. The deep state is slowly erasing me from history.
I think he's got every chance of winning if he's allowed to stand and I wish him well. I find it difficult to forgive Starmer for his many 'nights of the long knives that as well as others would have taken out Diane Abbott if he hadn't faced a revolt.
His judgement has often been suspect and his ruthlessness unrelenting.
As Jeremy Thorpe once said quoting Wilfred Owen.......
"Greater love hath no man than this; that he lay down his friends for his life"
Err - lays down his life for his friends !
But we know what you mean
No. I meant it as I wrote it. I maybe should have said Thorpe 'Misquoting' Wilfred Owen......
Would you say that about a sportsman who was ambitious for success?
This is different. Burnham's ambition lets the Fascist Putinites into the Greater Manchester Mayoralty.
Do they have an obvious electable candidate?
I don't believe that matters. So long as they can punish Labour, Reform take the win.
I have been battered this afternoon by the PB Tories for my hostility to their boy Burnham. I was critical of Johnson for his blind ambition (and Jenrick). So I may be a James Hunt (rhyming slang) but I am a consistent (Emmanual) Kant.
Burnham is the boy mainly of those left of Starmer not Tories
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
If Labour were to do that, Burnham would be well advised to run as an Indpendent. And I think he'd find it easier to win too.
Folly. There is no good outcome for Burnham, Starmer or Labour here.
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
Just to add one thing to your excellent summary.
Even if Andy B does return to Westminster, there's still a fair old path between there and the Premiership. If I were a current Cabinet minister, who had toiled through the heat of the day from 2017 to 2024, I'm not sure I would welcome someone waltzing back to reap the harvest in the final hour.
In the same way that Badenoch's position was strengthened by the threat of Jenrick taking over, Starmer might become the 'stop Burnham' placeholder.
(And as for 'it will all be brilliant but I'm not telling you the mechanism', we saw that movie with Boris.)
In that respect is the person with most reason to worry would arguably be Rachel Reeves. If Burnham gets back into the Commons and needs a big job due to his profile and experience she is the one most obviously in the firing line.
While if he loses, she is the most obvious person to make a scapegoat as part of a government refresh.
Playful but cruel. His popularity would last about twelve nanoseconds.
Basically, what May tried to do with BoJo and DD, only done right. I approve.
Having taken the time to read Burnham's letter, I'm puzzled what contribution he thinks he can make as a backbencher that's greater than he can deliver as mayor of one of our great cities.
I don't think that anyone thinks that Burnham is planning on being a backbench MP for long.
A fair bit of his appeal is that he hasn't had to do anything politically unpleasant for ages. The smart thing would be to offer AB a job he can't refuse, but also dips his hands in the blood of unpopularity pretty quickly.
Wonder what works best?
There aren't many Labour MPs who haven't been in some way tarnished by Corbyn's radicalism or Starmer's ultra conservatism. Each are loathed by the other. On the right lots of 'friends of Israel' who have prospered well beyond their abilities and then the Corbynites who have in many cases irrespective of ability been thrown out of the Party. Starmer has straddled both. He has also until yesterday stuck to Trump with a tenacity that would make a leech blush.*
Though Starmer has been improving I think it could be time for a reset. I'm not crazy about Burnham but he's got no baggage and has the support of Angie who I rate highly.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
If Labour were to do that, Burnham would be well advised to run as an Indpendent. And I think he'd find it easier to win too.
He wouldn’t, he would just let the Labour candidate and Starmer and the NEC be humiliated and wait for his next shot
Rumour is that the brass hats at the Pentagon were furious with him, and rightly so.
The damage has already happened
The damage was done the day Trump was reelected - it's just been playing out for the last year and a bit.
In the meantime, just assume that everything out of his mouth for the next three years will be terrible. Either he does it for the attention, or he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, or - usually - both. Just like my five-year-old nephew.
So keep your Trump filter on max. That's the only way to keep sane.
Yes the trick is to ignore most of what he says, and concentrate on what he does.
If every day is spent reacting outrageously to something crazy he posted, then the genuinely needed reactions, such as to his comments on British soldiers in Afghanistan, become lost in the noise.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
Interesting that they should be combining. Both proved capable of attracting votes in areas not normally renowned for their Tory propensities. Mark McIness, the Conservative chief exec, was very much part of Team Ruth back in the day. No doubt they still talk.
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
If Labour were to do that, Burnham would be well advised to run as an Indpendent. And I think he'd find it easier to win too.
And then what? Sit on the backbenches as an independent?
alexmassie@alexmassie·1h Anyone who believes this shouldn’t be trusted with a spoon, let alone anything else. (Burnham’s mere presence in the Commons destabilises the government. That’s why he wants to be in the Commons!)
Robert Peston@Peston Will this promise from Andy Burnham be enough for Starmer loyalists on Labour’s ruling NEC to let him stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Burnham: “I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister” https://x.com/Peston/status/2015111650752217323
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
There’s such a thing as an “All-BAME shortlist”?
I recall that Blair wrote something in the sexism act to exclude political parties and allow them to be sexist, but didn’t realise that had now expanded to racism as well.
Are they seriously proposing discriminating against a candidate because of the colour of his skin?
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
If Labour were to do that, Burnham would be well advised to run as an Indpendent. And I think he'd find it easier to win too.
If Burnham wins as an independent, how the flip can he succeed Starmer as Prime Minister?
alexmassie@alexmassie·1h Anyone who believes this shouldn’t be trusted with a spoon, let alone anything else. (Burnham’s mere presence in the Commons destabilises the government. That’s why he wants to be in the Commons!)
Robert Peston@Peston Will this promise from Andy Burnham be enough for Starmer loyalists on Labour’s ruling NEC to let him stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Burnham: “I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister” https://x.com/Peston/status/2015111650752217323
But if the ball was to slip out of the back of the scrum....
If Labour cost the local taxpayers £5m for a new Mayoral contest they will lose both by-elections, Gorton and Denton and Greater Manchester. This is a desperate plot and will fail and deserve to. #WorkersParty,
Gorgeous, from his Bond villain lair in Malaysia could be a fly in the ointment.
He's no different to Jenrick. Blind ambition with no talent to back it up.
Both are Cambridge gentlemen, they have considerable talent.
Much to my disappointment, talent played little part in my Cambridge education.
Am I the only PBer to slum it in a red brick dump?
No I was plate glass
Although you did see the light later and joined @Sandpit and I at the greatest University in all the world.
Indeed, Aberystwyth was also alma mater of the King for a term.
Interestingly no King of England or the UK has ever graduated from Oxford, only Cambridge or St Andrews.
Edward VII briefly attended Christ Church Oxford and Trinity Cambridge but graduated from neither
Will that cause @TSE to be insufferably smug about the awesomeness of Cambridge, or incandescent with fury that his beloved Alma mater is associated with royalty?
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
No Burnham but a DEI/EDI all BAME imposed Labour shortlist would be a Farage wet dream scenario for Gorton and targeting its plurality white working class voters
If Labour were to do that, Burnham would be well advised to run as an Indpendent. And I think he'd find it easier to win too.
If Burnham wins as an independent, how the flip can he succeed Starmer as Prime Minister?
Because once he is elected, he can take the Labour whip.
Anyone who thinks Reform will ever win a GM mayoral contest has no idea about the area and is letting their bias affect them.
Zero chance whatsoever.
Labour are going to change mayoralty elections back to the supplementary vote but that hasn’t gone through Parliament yet so this will be FPTP. If it was SV Labour would easily win but it could be closer but I’d still expect Labour to win .
All they have to do is repeal or revoke whatever the Tories did to scrap SV and return to FPTP. Why does it take this government an age to push through the simplest of changes?
Comments
Perhaps though the final destination of Labour will be making Burnham PM.
We can only really tell if their self belief has some basis or is unearned narcissism afterwards.
Zero chance whatsoever.
Same day as the locals someone suggested? Great - his first act having been sworn in will be to tell Starmer to fuck off.
Burnham is the change of direction Labour need.
But then if the ball should come loose from the back of the scrum, it would be rude not to pick it up, wouldn't it?
https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/2015122286224015402
Cry more
https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/2015114409992138835
If Labour cost the local taxpayers £5m for a new Mayoral contest they will lose both by-elections, Gorton and Denton and Greater Manchester. This is a desperate plot and will fail and deserve to. #WorkersParty,
Apparently they are looking at appointing a Deportation Minister
Utterly disgusting with what is happening as we speak in US
The barman says what can I get you Mr Burnham
A shot (at being PM) please
Sure Mr Burnham take a seat.
Manchester has been the fastest growing economy whilst he has been mayor, in the whole country, much faster growth than London ?
Why did that happen ?
What part has he played in that ?
There’s a fascinating contrast between Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham if you read these two in-depth @NewStatesman profiles.
Starmer: Britain isn’t broken
Burnham: Britain needs an entirely new political economy
Big_G_NorthWales said:
» show previous quotes
It is Angela Rayner and a host of labour mps pushing for him which you don't seem to like but never mind, blame the tories !!!
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Totally agree Big_G_North Wales. It is the Labour party and their grassroots and the political lobby that have become obsessed with the possibility of Andy Burnham returning to front line Westminster politics as a potential stalking horse to take on and replace Keir Starmer and there has been a real rewriting of history and bigging up of his political credentials to boot.
To be honest I think he missed his chance when he didn't take the opportunity to run in a safe Labour seat back in the 2024 GE if he was that single mindedly personally ambitious to become the next Labour leader. I suspect the voters would not take kindly to a Labour candidate so clearly using a by-election in their constituency seat as a vehicle for their personal ambitions in this way in the current febrile UK political scene. Plus, it would be a hell of risk trying to return to Westminster as a challenger to Keir Starmer's leadership while Labour's polling is so dire and you could not rely on either him or the whole Labour party turning out in any real effort to help your campaign even if you managed to get selected locally.
I found it really telling that just weeks ago Reform were calling for all defecting MPs to trigger a by-election so they could win a mandate as a local MP representing their new party, and yet neither Robert Jenrick or Andrew Rosindell with the backing of the Reform leadership are now prepared to take that gamble so have left the voters in their constituencies without a voice about their defections until the next GE. A huge political mistake that I think will backfire on both of them at the next GE what ever party polling of Reform, but then I think that Robert Jenrick blew up his own personal political career when he defected in the way he did and doing the media rounds while focussing on his petty attempts to try to rescue his reputation and reclaim the political agenda to try to justify his actions this week as far more important global and domestic issues took precedence while he did this just amplified he how diminished he had become as result.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115951100180444245
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Greater_Manchester?wprov=sfla1
So, 2024 GE was
Labour, 42.8 (-5.1)
Reform, 17.4 (+11.9)
Conservative, 15.8 (-19.1)
LD, 8.7 (-0.1)
Green, 8.1 (+5.7)
Others, 7.2 (+6.7)
So, Reform vote a couple of points above the national average and Labour about 10 points.
A generic Labour in the doldrums loses to Reform here - enough Wigans, Heywoods. Tamesides and WWC bits of the cities and towns to make it so.
But mayorals are personality votes and yes, my central assumption is that Labour would play on continuity Burnham and Reform would have enough tone deafness to throw their chances. It would all be on the campaign though.
@siennamarla
A Labour MP says: “Hearing the all BAME shortlist is the most likely outcome as it stands. So Shabana Mahmood, the representation of Blue Labour within the Cabinet, is going to use her position as Chair of the NEC to impose a DEI process on this parliamentary selection? Insane.”
To be humiliated twice is somewhat careless.
But Chancellor would be my preference as I’d like an integrated low carbon national travel system.
Lucy Powell stands and wins, becoming Mayor.
Burnham stands and becomes Deputy Leader of Labour by conference. Uses his conference speech to call for unity in the party.
(OK, I'm taking the piss with that last bit.)
If Burnham stands, and wins, they have an expensive and probably damaging by-election (even if they win) for the mayoralty plus a media circus over Burnham's ambitions.
If he is barred from standing, Starmer will look weak, but won't go anywhere, so we have a lame duck government a la Rishi Sunak.
If he stands, and loses, he's wrecked himself as Mayor, Labour have lost a seat, and Starmer still looks weak and ineffectual as he can't win their 37th safest seat.
Andy Burnham isn't Prospero - he's Macbeth.
IMO SKS dominated NEC finds a way, (any way) to stop him being the candidate.
If he is not the candidate King Zack should stand and would have a good chance of winning imo.
If by some miracle Burnham does get to stand he wins and will be PM before the end of 2026.
At that point I would be prepared to vote tactically in a Reform/ Lab seat despite preferring a Green MP
Burnham - from Daydream Believer to Don't Look Back In Anger in 24 hours.
AN Other. Massive defeat.
@patrickkmaguire
·
1h
The leadership of the Labour Party is not strong enough to weather the political consequences of blocking this. They will try though.
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2015109884899971424
Has anyone actually heard the word BAME in anger since about 2021?
Labour deserve to lose if they go down this route.
In the meantime, just assume that everything out of his mouth for the next three years will be terrible. Either he does it for the attention, or he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, or - usually - both. Just like my five-year-old nephew.
So keep your Trump filter on max. That's the only way to keep sane.
A Burnham return would be a disaster therefore for Farage as much as Starmer and indeed Streeting. It wouldn’t be great for Polanski either as the polling shows Burnham would squeeze the Green vote as much as the Reform vote.
It wouldn’t be too bad for Kemi and Davey though as economically Burnham is left of Starmer so the Tories can firmly take the centre right ground on the economy. Burnham was never a rejoin the EU or EEA man either so the LDs will still have most of those voters
Actually despite it being Cambridge I suspect I was surrounded by more red bricks than you were. Robinson College must be the finest collection of red bricks in the country.
Even if Andy B does return to Westminster, there's still a fair old path between there and the Premiership. If I were a current Cabinet minister, who had toiled through the heat of the day from 2017 to 2024, I'm not sure I would welcome someone waltzing back to reap the harvest in the final hour.
In the same way that Badenoch's position was strengthened by the threat of Jenrick taking over, Starmer might become the 'stop Burnham' placeholder.
(And as for 'it will all be brilliant but I'm not telling you the mechanism', we saw that movie with Boris.)
While if he loses, she is the most obvious person to make a scapegoat as part of a government refresh.
Understand the plan is still to block Burnham and they think the political pressure to enact that is, more likely than not, bearable.
The minute he has to take decisions- bang. Same as all the others.
Tory David Gauke is impressed.
https://x.com/davidgauke/status/2015094875725984037?s=61
Meaningless waffle.
Witness video shows him filming, not attacking. Minutes later he’s on the ground being shot.
They escalated a camera into a corpse.
That’s not “law enforcement.” That’s an execution.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2015117858372554787
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=John 15:13&version=KJV
Basically, what May tried to do with BoJo and DD, only done right. I approve.
Though Starmer has been improving I think it could be time for a reset. I'm not crazy about Burnham but he's got no baggage and has the support of Angie who I rate highly.
*borrowed from the Guardian
If every day is spent reacting outrageously to something crazy he posted, then the genuinely needed reactions, such as to his comments on British soldiers in Afghanistan, become lost in the noise.
MELANIA: TWENTY DAYS TO HISTORY:
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/2014772963719991311
Film trailer is embedded in the above but if you are untwixed, try:-
MELANIA: TWENTY DAYS TO HISTORY:
https://www.amazon.com/salp/melaniamovie?hhf
Mark McIness, the Conservative chief exec, was very much part of Team Ruth back in the day. No doubt they still talk.
Interestingly no King of England or the UK has ever graduated from Oxford, only Cambridge or St Andrews.
Edward VII briefly attended Christ Church Oxford and Trinity Cambridge but graduated from neither
Alex Massie quote tweeting Robert Peston...
alexmassie@alexmassie·1h
Anyone who believes this shouldn’t be trusted with a spoon, let alone anything else.
(Burnham’s mere presence in the Commons destabilises the government. That’s why he wants to be in the Commons!)
Robert Peston@Peston
Will this promise from Andy Burnham be enough for Starmer loyalists on Labour’s ruling NEC to let him stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Burnham: “I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister”
https://x.com/Peston/status/2015111650752217323
I recall that Blair wrote something in the sexism act to exclude political parties and allow them to be sexist, but didn’t realise that had now expanded to racism as well.
Are they seriously proposing discriminating against a candidate because of the colour of his skin?
The colloquial use of "execution" isn't out of place, though, when it's law officers carrying out the murder while on duty.
It appears from zooming in just moments before ICE/CBP shoot yet another US citizen, one agent removes the victim's firearm from his waste holster.
The victim was UNARMED when he was shot multiple times...
https://x.com/gremloe/status/2015100158657384733
If, on the other hand, he’s prevented from standing, I think that could put the Greens in pole position.
https://x.com/dvatw/status/2015095082886594772
The United States IS reported to have informed Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE of an attack on Iran that is expected to begin very soon.
However, doubt it will dig into that.