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Burnham confirms he wants to stand in the by-eleciton – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,664

    On topic, if I'd spent the last 6 months gleefully briefing the press about how I'd found an MP who would stand down for me, and I was hoping to appeal to the sense of fair play of the NEC to let me run, I wouldn't begin my letter, "of course, nobody wanted or expected a by-election at this time".

    Sure, but unless he left his plan to get back into Parliament lying around in a photocopier they cannot officially call him out for lying through his teeth on that point.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,827

    AI won't give you any productivity gains....

    ClawdBot is the most powerful AI tool I’ve ever used in my life. Here’s how to set it up
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkqe-uRhQJE

    It's very hit'n'miss. But this afternoon I wrote up a very ballpark spec for a MacOS toolbar app to show the realtime cost of a meeting based on the salaries of the people involved.

    Took me maybe 10-15 minutes to write up the spec.

    🤖 ─ Worked for 1m 17s
    And it was done. With about another 60s or so work on it's part (maybe 30m on mine) it was spot on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,520
    edited January 24
    ohnotnow said:

    AI won't give you any productivity gains....

    ClawdBot is the most powerful AI tool I’ve ever used in my life. Here’s how to set it up
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkqe-uRhQJE

    It's very hit'n'miss. But this afternoon I wrote up a very ballpark spec for a MacOS toolbar app to show the realtime cost of a meeting based on the salaries of the people involved.

    Took me maybe 10-15 minutes to write up the spec.

    🤖 ─ Worked for 1m 17s
    And it was done. With about another 60s or so work on it's part (maybe 30m on mine) it was spot on.

    ------

    Are you running it with Claude Max Opus ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853
    kle4 said:

    On topic, if I'd spent the last 6 months gleefully briefing the press about how I'd found an MP who would stand down for me, and I was hoping to appeal to the sense of fair play of the NEC to let me run, I wouldn't begin my letter, "of course, nobody wanted or expected a by-election at this time".

    Sure, but unless he left his plan to get back into Parliament lying around in a photocopier they cannot officially call him out for lying through his teeth on that point.
    Well sure, but they don't need to do that. They can answer the letter in the spirit in which it was sent, with a clearly spurious justification that everyone can see means "fuck you".

    We value the work you are doing as duly elected mayor and would not like to see Labour Party resources spent on a mayoral by-election when we are all busy working to deliver for the British people. End of leadership challenge.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,835
    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,193
    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    Are you saying White Supermacist Fascism is a bad thing?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,827

    ohnotnow said:

    AI won't give you any productivity gains....

    ClawdBot is the most powerful AI tool I’ve ever used in my life. Here’s how to set it up
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkqe-uRhQJE

    It's very hit'n'miss. But this afternoon I wrote up a very ballpark spec for a MacOS toolbar app to show the realtime cost of a meeting based on the salaries of the people involved.

    Took me maybe 10-15 minutes to write up the spec.

    🤖 ─ Worked for 1m 17s
    And it was done. With about another 60s or so work on it's part (maybe 30m on mine) it was spot on.
    ------

    Are you running it with Claude Max Opus ?

    Usually - but that was gpt-5.2-codex. So was effectively 'free'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,520
    edited 12:07AM
    ohnotnow said:



    Usually - but that was gpt-5.2-codex. So was effectively 'free'.

    Claude Max Opus for agentic things I think is way ahead at the moment.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853
    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,747
    Scott_xP said:

    I don't see how it fails in the short term. Miller can take down every blue state one state at a time.

    They don't have the manpower

    Miller expected ICE in Minnesota to be greeted as heroes.

    Now it's a gigantic clusterfuck that threatens the whole program.

    Another shutdown is likely
    Hasn't Whiskey Pete scrambled 2 battalions of regular soldiers to Minnesota?

    I don't see how Miller loses in the short to medium term. Miller has one of the biggest fighting forces available to any nation at his disposal. They have 12,000 military personnel upon whom they could call on stationed in the UK alone.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,906
    edited 12:15AM
    Final thoughts on Bernham. The good outweighs the bad. Getting him into parliament will be good for Labour

    1. He has the best chace of anyone of winning the Denton seat
    2. It gives Labour a potential leader if things go tits up for Starmer
    3. It'll encourage Starmer to be more courageous
    4. It will make Labour look less stale
    5. He is popular in the North
    6. He is believed to be innovative
    7. He's not from any particular wing of the Party
    8. Labour need a shot in the arm. He'll give it to them
    9. He will resurrect the careers of two talented ministers Angela Rayner and Louise Haigh
    10.He'll introduce some of Manchester's joie de vie to the more stagnent parts of the country
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,747

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,747
    Roger said:

    Final thoughts on Bernham. The good outweighs the bad. Getting him into parliament will be good for Labour

    1. He has the best chace of anyone of winning the Denton seat
    2. It gives Labour a potential leader if things go tits up for Starmer
    3. It'll encourage Starmer to be more courageous
    4. It will make Labour look less stale
    5. He is popular in the North
    6. He is believed to be innovative
    7. He's not from any particular wing of the Party
    8. Labour need a shot in the arm. He'll give it to them
    9. He will resurrect the careers of two talented ministers Angela Rayner and Louise Haigh
    10.He'll introduce some of Manchester's joie de vie to the more stagnent parts of the country

    Although what Burnham has just done is what we castigated Johnson for doing. It is simply an unnecessary indulgent Labour psychodrama rather than an unnecessary indulgent Conservative psychodrama.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,427

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    you think they are gonna be able to hold an election in Minnesota in this environment?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853
    Tres said:

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    you think they are gonna be able to hold an election in Minnesota in this environment?
    Sure they could, and in any case they've deployed a large proportion of their available forces in Minnesota. They don't have enough goons to do this nationwide.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,747

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    There are no legal constraints left. Mark Kelly will be prosecuted/ court martialed ( he has already had his pension cut and been recalled to service to invoke a court martial) for imploring military personnel to ignore ILLEGAL orders from the Commander in Chief.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    There are no legal constraints left. Mark Kelly will be prosecuted/ court martialed ( he has already had his pension cut and been recalled to service to invoke a court martial) for imploring military personnel to ignore ILLEGAL orders from the Commander in Chief.
    What's happening here is that the administration is constantly doing illegal thing, getting told to stop by the courts, and then, grudgingly, stopping. They keep bringing prosecutions against political enemies and the courts keep throwing them out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,664

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    There are no legal constraints left. Mark Kelly will be prosecuted/ court martialed ( he has already had his pension cut and been recalled to service to invoke a court martial) for imploring military personnel to ignore ILLEGAL orders from the Commander in Chief.
    What's happening here is that the administration is constantly doing illegal thing, getting told to stop by the courts, and then, grudgingly, stopping. They keep bringing prosecutions against political enemies and the courts keep throwing them out.
    And that has no lasting consequences? I find that doubtful.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,853
    edited 12:45AM
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    It gets even worse . The victim was legally carrying a fire arm , in the tussle his gun was taken by a member of ICE who is seen walking away with it and then they executed him .

    The defensive shots line from the scum surrounding Trump is a total lie .

    The one thing that gives me optimism that democracy will continue after 2028 is that the administration seems to be determined to alienate everyone you might need for a successful coup d'etat. They've been doing everything they can to upset the military and now apparently they're trying to cancel the rights of gun owners.

    You can't lie to gun owners about something involving a gun, if there's something involving a gun in the media they'll spend the next week obsessing over possible every detail of it.
    I thought the elections would be held but compromised in 2026 and 2028. I think it is most likely they won't be held as the Insurrection Act will have been invoked for both events. They are not playing around this time.
    IIUC the Insurrection Act isn't a magic thing that cancels elections. It allows them to sent the military to places to support law enforcement. They still have the same legal constraints that police do and they still have to obey the courts. If you can tell the military to act illegally to stop people voting then that might be relevant, but that's where you need the support of the military.
    There are no legal constraints left. Mark Kelly will be prosecuted/ court martialed ( he has already had his pension cut and been recalled to service to invoke a court martial) for imploring military personnel to ignore ILLEGAL orders from the Commander in Chief.
    What's happening here is that the administration is constantly doing illegal thing, getting told to stop by the courts, and then, grudgingly, stopping. They keep bringing prosecutions against political enemies and the courts keep throwing them out.
    And that has no lasting consequences? I find that doubtful.
    I mean sure it has consequences, the political prosecutions variously deter certain types of people and stiffen the resistance of others. The illegal actions usually don't result in any punishment aside from being told to stop them, and often by then the damage has already been done to whatever unlucky person was the early target. Then sometimes SCOTUS goes on to decide the illegal thing is now legal and they can carry on doing it.

    But saying the US does not have any legal constraints on the administration left is empirically wrong.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,661
    Roger said:

    Final thoughts on Bernham. The good outweighs the bad. Getting him into parliament will be good for Labour

    1. He has the best chace of anyone of winning the Denton seat
    2. It gives Labour a potential leader if things go tits up for Starmer
    3. It'll encourage Starmer to be more courageous
    4. It will make Labour look less stale
    5. He is popular in the North
    6. He is believed to be innovative
    7. He's not from any particular wing of the Party
    8. Labour need a shot in the arm. He'll give it to them
    9. He will resurrect the careers of two talented ministers Angela Rayner and Louise Haigh
    10.He'll introduce some of Manchester's joie de vie to the more stagnent parts of the country

    There are only three reasonably plausible outcomes from Burnham standing.

    1) He stands and loses. General hilarity all round, Starmer ends up down an enemy, as I don't think Burnham could come back from that.

    2) He ends up in Parliament, tries to take Starmer down and fails. Result - more red on red infighting, the Burnham faction of the labour vote shuffle off to the greens.

    3) He ends up in Parliament, takes Starmer on and wins. Because he's thick and doesn't understand the constraints on borrowing, he becomes Truss 2.0, creates a sovereign debt crisis, and Labour becomes unelectable for a generation.

    Both 2 and 3 are very bad for the Labour Party, and 3 is also very bad for the country. I don't much care about the fate of the Labour Party, but if I did I would be praying for scenario 1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,520
    The NPS will be created in stages, working alongside existing agencies and regional organised crime units for the transition.

    Backing the plans, Neil Basu, former head of counter-terrorism policing, said NPS will be “far more capable as one national security system dealing more effectively with major crime, organised crime and terrorism in all its forms”.

    Graeme Biggar, director general of the National Crime Agency, which would be merged into the new organisation, is also supporting the proposals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/24/home-office-to-launch-british-fbi-to-deal-with-serious-uk-wide

    Another 2035 plan?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,432
    Scott_xP said:


    I read this morning that Trump was concerned that Minneapolis wasn’t playing well for him. It was supposed to create confrontation and increase the salience of immigration, thereby favouring Trump. Instead it just looks (and seems to be) like a gang of masked thugs running riot on the streets of a major U.S. metro.

    Related comment:

    Micah @rincewind.run

    something else that’s really clear is the extent to which Trump himself is checked out and declining and Miller is running the show

    Trump used to have some lizard brain sense of optics - not an understanding that things are bad but an understanding that they looked bad

    that’s completely gone now

    https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3md77xvyvpk2m
    ICE is the loadbearing component of the Miller plan. That's why they are freaking out that it's not going as planned.

    If ICE doesn't work, the whole project is in jeopardy

    What part of a plan requiring hundreds of thousands of racist, trigger-happy goons to implement it could possibly go wrong?
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