First Canada, then Australia, now Denmark? – politicalbetting.com
First Canada, then Australia, now Denmark? – politicalbetting.com
Mette Frederiksen goes from looking like she was on the way out, to now having recovered much of what was lost. This is in large part due to her new year's speech and the foreign political situation.Link to the poll: https://t.co/CJAlg9HDfR
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I’m the real first !,
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2014705788799819900
@SecScottBessent: "I think Gavin Newsom may be cracking up with some of these things he's saying. I think he may be in over his hairdo... Being on the national stage is very different than being governor—with no signature achievements... If he brought the kneepads, maybe that was for his meeting with Alex Soros, I don't know."
Works better with a 2028 election than a 2029 one, mind. Unless Trump is still in office (de jure or de facto) in May 2029 of course...
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1963425300068315392
Just the optics the regime was hoping for to bolster support...
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
I appreciate this is an 'if my auntie had balls' argument.
As for Trump/Trump's ghost not being the President in 2029... How does that work at a practical level? If the current Administration relinquishes power, lots of them are going to prison for quite a long time. The Macbeth 'steeped in blood' line was crossed a while back and they can't all flee to Moscow.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
We had too much time to find for ourselves
And we were never being boring
We dressed up and fought, then thought, "Make amends"
And we were never holding back or worried that
Time would come to an end
Maybe in a day, maybe in a year. Who knows?
That fella in France was a genuine monster, but so incomprehensible were his actions that it seemed impossible to believe it could be anything but a one off. But of course, he recruited via an online forum - which suggests it isn't as unique as we'd want to think. Horrific.
Over the course of the year you get stories of councillors of all parties getting involved in some dodgy shit and the impact tends to balance out. But I don't recall any of them doing anything as monstrous as this allegation. The French fella was the world's #1 villain for a time. I'd say that an ex-Tory councillor has done something similar will take a bit of reputational management.
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
The image was posted to X. He either used a computer or a phone (or -I guess- a tablet). All three of those platforms allow for AI image creation.
Donald Trump is wrong. For 20 years our armed forces fought bravely alongside America's in Afghanistan.
There's also a video clip which is a bit more mealy-mouthed: Farage calls Trump's comments "not quite fair".
I got this, when you view it through the sunglasses from They! Live! -
* Anagram.
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From Wiki:
"He married John Freeman, a former New York City prosecutor, in 2011. They have two children, born through surrogacy."
So, the answer is NO.
In the first case either could win. In the second case Labour would win.
which is why Reform will come second or third in votes and seats.
(The laws of politics don't allow Reform v Tory to be the top contest for government!)
Most unfortunately I expect that this crime will be widespread enough that there will be perpetrators in every party, and so it would be exceptionally unwise for anyone to attempt to derive any partisan advantage from it. (The Guardian have put the party affiliation in the headline for the clicks.)
https://spectator.com/article/are-we-too-stupid-for-democracy/
https://x.com/i/status/2014744710649102586
On topic, the Megafon poll is fascinating on a number of levels.
Context - Denmark is run by a governing coalition of three parties - the Social Democrats, Venstre (meaning "Left" in English, translates to "Liberal" but is actually a Centre-Right Party as distinct from the Danish Conservative Party) and the Moderates. It's not a million miles away from a Lab-Con-LD coalition here.
The coalition parties won about 50% of the vote at the last election which marked a break from the traditional "Red" vs "Blue" blocks of governments - the Social Democrats led the "red" bloc while Venstre led the "blue".
Until Christmas, the coalition parties were running at 30% with the opposition parties at 70% and the blue bloc was leading the red roughly 50-47 so the next election looked like Venstre, the Conservatives and their allies were going to take over.
No longer, if Megafon is correct and to be fair the weekly Voxmeter has shown something similar yet it's not all good news for the coalition - the Social Democrats and Moderates are well up (5 and 4 respectively) but Venstre is down 2.5 points and the Conservatives down 2 so the red bloc now leads the blue 51-42 with the Moderates on 6.
Mette Frederiksen continuing as PM with the Moderates and some other allied centre-left groups now looks much more likely and it's probably down to Trump's antics on Greenland.
Enough fawning
They are increasingly distasteful.
That only changed when the Don decided he wanted Canada.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1021552946686004&set=a.639407038233932
Tbf, a good line.
And, certainly, it does seem a long time ago since the likes of Crosland, Healey, Jenkins, even Benn, populated the higher echelons of Labour.
The King is head of our armed forces and will follow government advice
We have been far too accommodating to Trump and he has gone too far on this
A stand is needed
He still seems to be struggling with some number of his party being big Trump fans no matter what, which will always lead to awkward moments.
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.
I entirely agree that we've been too accommodating to the US. However reassure yourself - we actually have most of their family secrets in our records offices.
We all know how that story ends.
He was used in the first meeting with Trump with that infamous invitation for a state visit and on subsequent occasions
Of course his state visit in April can be cancelled
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 IN FULL: The list of those who will decide whether Andy Burnham can stand to be an MP
- Keir Starmer
- Shabana Mahmood
- Lucy Powell - Deputy Leader
- Ellie Reeves - Solicitor General
- Keiran O'Neil - GMB
- Tom Williams - USDAW
- Peter Wheeler - Merseyside councillor
- Mike Payne - Nottinghamshire MP
- Abdi Duale - Starmer ally
- Gurdiner Singh Josan - Birmingham MP
Have a listen to Jeremy Hunt on WATO, the latter narrative is his concern. He's very good.
At the moment, Labour haven't quite conceded that big a consistent lead in polls that we understand. So there's hope for them there. More importantly, there is plenty of time for Starmer to hang on for a bit, absorb a bit more toxin and then hand over to a fresh face from the next generation in 2028 or so.
Extremely dull for rolling news addicts, I'm sure. But that's the timeframe.
According to David Starkey, this began as a deliberate policy by Communist Russia after the War, when the UN was in its infancy, who found the idea of free speech unacceptable, and therefore started to caveat it with notions of 'fascist speech' being unacceptable - which their ideological descendents still peddle today.
I don't want Reform politicians to be vulgar, or deliberately unkind, but it is important that they, and other right wingers, realise that it doesn't matter a jot how much you use the language of the left and play by its rules, you will not be accepted, and in the end your non-compliance with their world view will itself be deemed offensive.