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Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,131
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Vain hope to expect the NYSE to be monitoring his entourages' dealing activities I suppose.
    Another 3 years of crises interspersed with brief calms , if not longer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,128
    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    Seems to be that you get the first three years for free, and it's $1bn for perpetual membership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,404
    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    With a list of potential members like this I wonder if Tony Blair will want to remain involved?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862
    Dopermean said:

    I blame Leon and other sex tourists https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2026/jan/22/bathroom-door-scandal-hotels-putting-toilets-in-glass-boxes

    When I was travelling with work I had a collection of photos of outlandish toilet arrangements

    A Vietnamese hotel had both a glass walled shower room in the middle of the room and glass toilet cubicle door with telephone in the cubicle
    Boutique hotel in B A I snuck into the suite to grab photos of the half-height glass surround en-suite with external urinal

    Best hotel room for photos, got booked into the last available room somewhere in Bulgaria, Presidential Suite on the top floor, lounge with real fire, small ship themed balcony with ship's wheel, bathroom with shower, bath and jacuzzi the length of one side of the hotel and absolute priority over the lift ... when I pressed the button it stopped whatever it was doing, came to my floor and didn't stop anywhere else until it got to the floor I selected. I had a lot of fun with that :)

    I don't want to bring this too close to home but anyone who has stayed at Groucho's will know that their toilet showers are exactly like the one shown in the Guardian infact it was probably taken there. These bohemian establishments!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,388
    @Roger, the Oscars nominees are being announced. Who do you think will win?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,537
    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    Russian frozen assets is one route! Seriously.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,815
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2000-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    And still the so called UK patriots support him !
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,312
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    With a list of potential members like this I wonder if Tony Blair will want to remain involved?
    Given he's already worked for some of them, perhaps the goal is to add the rest as clients?
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,140
    Roger said:

    Oddly enough I got told by a hairdresser friend a while ago that he'd heard it on very good authority that this was happening. I gave him all the reasons that I'd read on here why that was unlikely but he assured me this was definitely a goer. Hairdressers in my experience have always been the most reliable purveyors of gossip -though not usually political -and he has never so far been wrong. I hope it doesn't happen but I fear it will.

    Hairdresser on Fire
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,811
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2001-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    Don’t be so harsh.

    Leon and William will be along soon to tell you why Trump’s comments are awesome.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,839
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    EXC:
    Could Andy Burnham be on the brink of becoming a member of the Parliament? Well he faces a BIG hurdle.
    There is a new rule - introduced in the 2026 Labour rule book https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Rule-Book-2026.pdf
    About Mayors wanting to become MP.
    It says: “Directly Elected Mayors and Police and Crime Commissioners must seek the express permission of the NEC/SEC/WEC (as applicable) before seeking nomination as Labour candidates for the Westminster Parliament. The NEC/SEC/WEC’s decision shall be final”
    Andy Burnham would have to stand down as Metro Mayor of Manchester, triggering an election for that post which Labour is not guaranteed to win and will cost hundreds of thousands of pounds.
    So these are the grounds that could be used to block Burnham by the NEC.
    I’m told Morgan McSweeny thinks he’s got the NEC sewn up to block Burnham. But you never quite know.
    If Burnham is granted permission to apply for the seat, the NEC does a long and a shortlist.
    The long list over email, then the shortlisting is done by a panel.
    The panel has 3 members of the NEC, one member of the board and a local constituency rep. The panel is chosen by the office of the general secretary, Hollie Ridley, who is close to Morgan, decides the panel.
    So it’s far from clear he wins this

    There's the possibility that such a stitch up is downright counterproductive.
    I'll be surprised if there is not a stitch up of some kind. It's in McSweeney's DNA to stitch people up. And despite his fallout with Streeting, McSweeney knows that Burnham will challenge Starmer given a chance and that he'll be out of a job when Burnham wins.

    However, in the event of a stitch up, there will be a huge backlash within Labour. There would still be a challenge to Starmer after disasterous May results. The backlash will mean that whoever runs as the Stop Streeting candidate of the soft left will get added benefit from Burnham's endorsement. And Gwynne's departure means that Burnham might just choose to resign and seek the MP nomination anyway, in order just to provoke a stitch up, having done a deal to receive a senior Cabinet post (via being made a Lord) by however he chooses to endorse should they win. Burnham will become a modern day Warwick the Kingmaker (or Queenmaker.)

    Anyway, it's not necessarily the case that the odds for Rayner and Miliband should drift that much in response to the news of Gwynne's departure. By contrast, this is definitely bad news for Streeting. The only good outcome for Streeting would be if Burnham got the Labour nomination but failed to win the by-election.

    Apart from a direct stitch up, a more subtle way of stitching up Burnham would be for the gauntlet of a leadership challenge to be thrown down by someone before a by-election took place. But if Gwynne resigns imminently, then it would be hard for the by-election to be delayed beyond May, and I don't think anyone would dare challenge Starmer before May because their disloyalty will then become the excuse for poor May results and they'll transform themselves into the scapegoat. So I'd discount the likelihood of this scenario.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862
    viewcode said:

    @Roger, the Oscars nominees are being announced. Who do you think will win?

    Probably 'One battle after another' or 'Hamnet'. Have the nominations come through yet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,628

    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    Seems to be that you get the first three years for free, and it's $1bn for perpetual membership.
    A bit like those streaming deals, then ?

    That list will be a whole lot shorter, if it's still around in three years' time.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2001-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    Don’t be so harsh.

    Leon and William will be along soon to tell you why Trump’s comments are awesome.
    "It's not ideal, but but but...."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2001-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    Don’t be so harsh.

    Leon and William will be along soon to tell you why Trump’s comments are awesome.
    That would at least confirm that one or both are spoofs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,880
    @rafaelbehr.bsky.social‬

    Starmer maybe rightly doesn’t take bait each time but he needs an outrider - a semi-licensed “off message” attack dog - to make Haw-Haw Farage pay for sucking up to the guy who denigrates British war dead.

    https://bsky.app/profile/rafaelbehr.bsky.social/post/3mczd4sroks2c
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,020
    Roger said:

    Oddly enough I got told by a hairdresser friend a while ago that he'd heard it on very good authority that this was happening. I gave him all the reasons that I'd read on here why that was unlikely but he assured me this was definitely a goer. Hairdressers in my experience have always been the most reliable purveyors of gossip -though not usually political -and he has never so far been wrong. I hope it doesn't happen but I fear it will.

    Albanians are dressing hair nowadays?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,020
    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    The fee is only for a permanent place, I think? As if anything that Trump starts is ever going to last
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,355

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2001-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    Don’t be so harsh.

    Leon and William will be along soon to tell you why Trump’s comments are awesome.
    Hasn’t Trump said troops killed or captured are ‘losers’?
    Obviously a backhanded compliment to NATO troops.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,020
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Wow. What a shit.
    457 British personnel killed in Afghanistan 2001-2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_casualties_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

    He really is scum.
    How many once you take out those killed by American friendly fire?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,624
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is back onstage at Davos

    As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan

    Fuck this guy

    Piece. Of. Shit.
    No doubt lapped up by the usual Trump fluffers on this side of the pond.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,628
    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,812
    edited 1:59PM
    I see that GBNews are developing their USA audience :smile:

    On an article entitled "Canada 'plots guerilla tactics' to prevent American attack as US defence plans drawn up for first time in a CENTURY" a commenter asserts:

    "What a risible, CCP owned, WEF acolyte, fool and lickspittal Carney is! Selling out Canada’s freedom to China and attempting to make the USA a pariah country!

    The WEF Agenda to destroy the West, with its installed glove puppet order takers, has never been more obvious!"
    https://www.gbnews.com/news/world/canada-defence-plans-donald-trump-southern-border-attack?__vfz=medium=comment_share|sharer_uuid=00000000-0000-4000-8000-02f0587d8a59#vf-d5b39f2f-7b45-4797-9962-90a29ae8ecb5

    Now we know.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,182
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Is anyone following this Board of Peace nonsense?

    Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?

    Current confirmed participants (Wiki):

    United States
    Albania
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Belarus
    Egypt
    Hungary
    Indonesia
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Mongolia
    Morocco

    * Is it one-off or annual?

    With a list of potential members like this I wonder if Tony Blair will want to remain involved?
    Depends how much he us paid...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862
    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    Thank goodness! How could the country that gave us KDB be so morally corrupt and feeble minded
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,080

    For cricket lovers only - England are currently playing Sri Lanka in a ODI, and are 38/1 chasing 271. I rather enjoyed this comment over at Cricinfo:

    "In this increasingly scary and unpredictable world, how reassuringly familiar it is to see Crawley nick off early."

    Has Duckett performed similarly?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,112
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    Oddly enough I got told by a hairdresser friend a while ago that he'd heard it on very good authority that this was happening. I gave him all the reasons that I'd read on here why that was unlikely but he assured me this was definitely a goer. Hairdressers in my experience have always been the most reliable purveyors of gossip -though not usually political -and he has never so far been wrong. I hope it doesn't happen but I fear it will.

    Albanians are dressing hair nowadays?
    Someone told the Albanians that the Gay Trans Illegal Alien Immigrant AIs were coming for the cab drivers first (see Waymo). So they retrained.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    Oddly enough I got told by a hairdresser friend a while ago that he'd heard it on very good authority that this was happening. I gave him all the reasons that I'd read on here why that was unlikely but he assured me this was definitely a goer. Hairdressers in my experience have always been the most reliable purveyors of gossip -though not usually political -and he has never so far been wrong. I hope it doesn't happen but I fear it will.

    Albanians are dressing hair nowadays?
    This one is solid Mancunion. Born in Longsight!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,112
    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    Thank goodness! How could the country that gave us KDB be so morally corrupt and feeble minded
    Interesting that you are a fan of Arthur Witney. But he isn’t Belgian.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,392
    Scott_xP said:

    @rafaelbehr.bsky.social‬

    Starmer maybe rightly doesn’t take bait each time but he needs an outrider - a semi-licensed “off message” attack dog - to make Haw-Haw Farage pay for sucking up to the guy who denigrates British war dead.

    https://bsky.app/profile/rafaelbehr.bsky.social/post/3mczd4sroks2c

    Rayner. It can be her way back into the tent - and I'm sure she'd relish kicking Farage in the balls....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,392
    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    Putin musy have told Trump "Leave Belgium to me - I have them by the balls..."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,112

    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    Putin musy have told Trump "Leave Belgium to me - I have them by the balls..."
    Surely the one in possession of their balls would be Vilma the Zoroastrian?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,811
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    Oddly enough I got told by a hairdresser friend a while ago that he'd heard it on very good authority that this was happening. I gave him all the reasons that I'd read on here why that was unlikely but he assured me this was definitely a goer. Hairdressers in my experience have always been the most reliable purveyors of gossip -though not usually political -and he has never so far been wrong. I hope it doesn't happen but I fear it will.

    Albanians are dressing hair nowadays?
    This one is solid Mancunion. Born in Longsight!
    Could’ve been worse, they could have been from Levenshulme or Trashton.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,862
    Roger said:

    viewcode said:

    @Roger, the Oscars nominees are being announced. Who do you think will win?

    Probably 'One battle after another' or 'Hamnet'. Have the nominations come through yet?
    Yes, they are out. Record numbers for "Sinners".

    https://people.com/oscars-2026-nominations-list-11883901
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 236

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Burnham will not be a good PM.

    That doesn't answer the questions

    1) would he be better than SKS?
    2) would he be better at retaining Labour seats than an SKS lead Labour party in the next election?

    I suspect the answer to both those questions is that neither would be difficult to achieve...
    Starmer is a do-nothing PM, which isn't doing him, Labour, or the country any favours.

    Burnham has said very little about what his alternative policy programme for the country is. There's lots of potential for him to be a do-all-the-wrong-things PM, a Labour mini-Truss. It's a lot easier to make things worse than people realise.
    Burnham's outburst in the run up to the budget along the lines of "why do we even care about what the bond market thinks anyway" is sufficient to tell you that a Burnham premiership would almost certainly be exceptionally short and painful.

    All the evidence is that he's a fully committed believer in the magic money tree, who hasn't yet realised that the party ended in 2008, and we're now well into the hangover.

    Truss was at least trying to achieve growth, in the hope that it would start to bring in more tax revenue to offset the losses from her tax cuts - a kind of fiscal version of diving an aircraft as the first step to pull off a loop the loop. We'll never know if she would have made it, as her party saw the ground heading towards them, panicked, threw her out of the cockpit and pulled out of the dive.

    Burnham is going to try the dive without any intention off pulling off a loop. He's just hoping that by the time the ground arrives it will be someone else's problem. The problem is that all he'll have round him are people cheerleading for "more nose down now" and "look how fast we're going - isn't it great!".
    The reason I name-checked Truss was precisely this sense I get from Burnham that he thinks he can change the rules of the game, but that he doesn't understand what the consequences would be.

    I think Polanski has a much better understanding of what the constraints are than Burnham does, and would be less risky with respect to the bond markets.
    To be honest I had hoped Burnham was misquoted or at least quoted out of context. Because it is crazy view to have - and I did not think he was that daft. US gets to do what it does because of the Dollar privilege. Everyone else, like James Carville, suggested should be scared of the bond market.

    That doesn’t mean to say a state can’t be ambitious or work within the constraints - these funds have to park their money somewhere. There are ways of working with the market to invest in the sort of things left of centre Governments want to do (and indeed do what right of centre governments want to do with regard tax and growth) or at least not scaring the sh!t out of them. But if you cut them out of the conversation they’ll just sit on their hands. A before you know it you are outlasted by a lettuce.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    So Rupert, I have five mobile subcriptions.

    1 personal phone, 1 for my Apple Watch, 1 for my iPad.

    I also have 1 for my work mobile and one for my work iPad which also hotspots.
    Rupert Lowe is not a clever person. But if you want someone to shamelessly repeat anti-immigration talking points, he seems good at that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,862
    MattW said:

    I see that GBNews are developing their USA audience :smile:

    On an article entitled "Canada 'plots guerilla tactics' to prevent American attack as US defence plans drawn up for first time in a CENTURY" a commenter asserts:

    "What a risible, CCP owned, WEF acolyte, fool and lickspittal Carney is! Selling out Canada’s freedom to China and attempting to make the USA a pariah country!

    The WEF Agenda to destroy the West, with its installed glove puppet order takers, has never been more obvious!"
    https://www.gbnews.com/news/world/canada-defence-plans-donald-trump-southern-border-attack?__vfz=medium=comment_share|sharer_uuid=00000000-0000-4000-8000-02f0587d8a59#vf-d5b39f2f-7b45-4797-9962-90a29ae8ecb5

    Now we know.

    I hope you have a reasonable excuse for encouraging that turgid load of tripe by tuneing in?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,145
    Should that NEC rule be called the “Keep Andy Burnham of Parliament” rule?

    Seems laser targetted at him personally.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,359
    We shouldn’t take it personally. Trump thinks US war dead were “suckers and losers.”
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,355
    edited 2:27PM
    Roger said:

    viewcode said:

    @Roger, the Oscars nominees are being announced. Who do you think will win?

    Probably 'One battle after another' or 'Hamnet'. Have the nominations come through yet?
    There’s a film guy I follow on Twitter who’s not very keen on Hamnet but he loves this from the cast and crew. It is good..

    https://x.com/hering_david/status/2014258388587213255?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286

    I guess it's possible that the by-election ends up being Polanski's route into Parliament.

    Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?

    Polanski has never won an FPTP election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,112

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Burnham will not be a good PM.

    That doesn't answer the questions

    1) would he be better than SKS?
    2) would he be better at retaining Labour seats than an SKS lead Labour party in the next election?

    I suspect the answer to both those questions is that neither would be difficult to achieve...
    Starmer is a do-nothing PM, which isn't doing him, Labour, or the country any favours.

    Burnham has said very little about what his alternative policy programme for the country is. There's lots of potential for him to be a do-all-the-wrong-things PM, a Labour mini-Truss. It's a lot easier to make things worse than people realise.
    Burnham's outburst in the run up to the budget along the lines of "why do we even care about what the bond market thinks anyway" is sufficient to tell you that a Burnham premiership would almost certainly be exceptionally short and painful.

    All the evidence is that he's a fully committed believer in the magic money tree, who hasn't yet realised that the party ended in 2008, and we're now well into the hangover.

    Truss was at least trying to achieve growth, in the hope that it would start to bring in more tax revenue to offset the losses from her tax cuts - a kind of fiscal version of diving an aircraft as the first step to pull off a loop the loop. We'll never know if she would have made it, as her party saw the ground heading towards them, panicked, threw her out of the cockpit and pulled out of the dive.

    Burnham is going to try the dive without any intention off pulling off a loop. He's just hoping that by the time the ground arrives it will be someone else's problem. The problem is that all he'll have round him are people cheerleading for "more nose down now" and "look how fast we're going - isn't it great!".
    The reason I name-checked Truss was precisely this sense I get from Burnham that he thinks he can change the rules of the game, but that he doesn't understand what the consequences would be.

    I think Polanski has a much better understanding of what the constraints are than Burnham does, and would be less risky with respect to the bond markets.
    To be honest I had hoped Burnham was misquoted or at least quoted out of context. Because it is crazy view to have - and I did not think he was that daft. US gets to do what it does because of the Dollar privilege. Everyone else, like James Carville, suggested should be scared of the bond market.

    That doesn’t mean to say a state can’t be ambitious or work within the constraints - these funds have to park their money somewhere. There are ways of working with the market to invest in the sort of things left of centre Governments want to do (and indeed do what right of centre governments want to do with regard tax and growth) or at least not scaring the sh!t out of them. But if you cut them out of the conversation they’ll just sit on their hands. A before you know it you are outlasted by a lettuce.
    Not so much that, as a default gets priced in. And runaway inflation from money printing is just another way to default.

    During the early stages of the Greek Crisis there was an editorial in the Guardian - which took the view that borrowing at the same rate as Germany was a basic (collective) democratic human right. If the people voted for borrowing, they must have their cheap money.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,455
    I said "no" to the Burnham question in the PB compy!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,455

    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    Putin musy have told Trump "Leave Belgium to me - I have them by the balls..."
    Surely the one in possession of their balls would be Vilma the Zoroastrian?
    "The details of my life are quite inconsequential."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,404

    I said "no" to the Burnham question in the PB compy!

    I did too, so my suggestion down thread that Starmer really needed to ingather all the talent available was very much cross book!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,020

    I said "no" to the Burnham question in the PB compy!

    Still a whole ton of hurdles for him to get there, each with odds. Multiply all those odds and you’re probably still on the money
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,128

    I guess it's possible that the by-election ends up being Polanski's route into Parliament.

    Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?

    Polanski has never won an FPTP election.
    How many FPTP elections has he contested?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,880
    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Ukrainian, Russian and US officials will hold their first trilateral talks to end Russia’s war, Volodymyr Zelensky says.
    The talks will take place in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    edited 2:42PM

    Your regular reminder that the US Congress no longer exists in any meaningful capacity.

    For two centuries they have told us they are the shining light, the beacon of democracy; its powerhouse and irreducible core.

    All absolute fucking tosh.




    Anne Applebaum‬
    @anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3mcz4iq2qvs2g

    From an American perspective, this is very much a feature and not a bug.

    They’re the superpower, and they don’t like the idea of superior international law or external agreements. The high bar means that there needs to be significant bipartisan agreement that any given Treaty is squarely in the American interest.

    Everyone else also knows this when negotiating with the Americans.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,537
    Nigelb said:

    I thought Belgium looked slightly off in that dismal list.

    Karoline Leavitt announced that Belgium joined Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’. Belgium’s foreign minister responds.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2014314854530568548

    For Palestine/Israel, I'm not sure why European powers particularly need to be involved. Some of the unsavoury characters may well be better placed than democrats anyway, and the key is that the regional powers whose $ are needed and have local influence are represented, which it seems they are.

    The issue is the ambitions beyond that conflict for those bored of peace.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    edited 2:44PM
    Scott_xP said:

    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Ukrainian, Russian and US officials will hold their first trilateral talks to end Russia’s war, Volodymyr Zelensky says.
    The talks will take place in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday

    Oh wow.

    Maybe I cancel my planned trip to go and watch the golf tomorrow.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286

    I guess it's possible that the by-election ends up being Polanski's route into Parliament.

    Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?

    Polanski has never won an FPTP election.
    How many FPTP elections has he contested?
    I think 1 as LD and 3 as Green
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,061
    I expect Burnham would do a bit better in by-election than you'd expect based on dire labour polling given he would be running under a backdrop of everyone saying he'd ultimately replace Starmer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286
    Sandpit said:

    Your regular reminder that the US Congress no longer exists in any meaningful capacity.

    For two centuries they have told us they are the shining light, the beacon of democracy; its powerhouse and irreducible core.

    All absolute fucking tosh.




    Anne Applebaum‬
    @anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3mcz4iq2qvs2g

    From an American perspective, this is very much a feature and not a bug.

    They’re the superpower, and they don’t like the idea of superior international law or external agreements. The high bar means that there needs to be significant bipartisan agreement that any given Treaty is squarely in the American interest.

    Everyone else also knows this when negotiating with the Americans.
    But what happens when Trump ignores it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,128

    I guess it's possible that the by-election ends up being Polanski's route into Parliament.

    Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?

    Polanski has never won an FPTP election.
    How many FPTP elections has he contested?
    Six from a count of his Wikipedia page.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469

    Sandpit said:

    Your regular reminder that the US Congress no longer exists in any meaningful capacity.

    For two centuries they have told us they are the shining light, the beacon of democracy; its powerhouse and irreducible core.

    All absolute fucking tosh.




    Anne Applebaum‬
    @anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3mcz4iq2qvs2g

    From an American perspective, this is very much a feature and not a bug.

    They’re the superpower, and they don’t like the idea of superior international law or external agreements. The high bar means that there needs to be significant bipartisan agreement that any given Treaty is squarely in the American interest.

    Everyone else also knows this when negotiating with the Americans.
    But what happens when Trump ignores it?
    The Supreme Court asserts itself.

    The US signs almost no international treaties for exactly this reason. They don’t need to, they can always be the bully in the room, and presidents of both parties have kept this up pretty much since WWII.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,199

    I guess it's possible that the by-election ends up being Polanski's route into Parliament.

    Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?

    Polanski has never won an FPTP election.
    How many FPTP elections has he contested?
    Six from a count of his Wikipedia page.
    How many did Toadface the Traitor Lover contest before the voters of Clacton were suckered into voting for him?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,404
    This is a very old fashioned ODI performance from England. In the olden days you took the score at 30 overs and doubled it. England are currently 135. SL got 271. This is going to be very close.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Your regular reminder that the US Congress no longer exists in any meaningful capacity.

    For two centuries they have told us they are the shining light, the beacon of democracy; its powerhouse and irreducible core.

    All absolute fucking tosh.




    Anne Applebaum‬
    @anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3mcz4iq2qvs2g

    From an American perspective, this is very much a feature and not a bug.

    They’re the superpower, and they don’t like the idea of superior international law or external agreements. The high bar means that there needs to be significant bipartisan agreement that any given Treaty is squarely in the American interest.

    Everyone else also knows this when negotiating with the Americans.
    But what happens when Trump ignores it?
    The Supreme Court asserts itself.

    The US signs almost no international treaties for exactly this reason. They don’t need to, they can always be the bully in the room, and presidents of both parties have kept this up pretty much since WWII.
    Waiting on the Supreme Court to assert itself is like waiting for Godot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,075
    Is there anyone in Britain more plugged into Trump's thinking than Liz Truss? This may be where his administration is planning to go next:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/2010056953096224961

    The model has failed.

    The US needs to take the next step.

    The United Nations building in New York should be closed down.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,215
    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    a

    Conservative amendment on social media ban for under 16s backed by the Lords - 261 - 150

    Disgracefully authoritarian.
    Nanny state Tories. Where will it end?
    It is certainly a topic of conversation with our children who really struggle with their children's [16, 14, and 13] phone use both in school and elsewhere

    It is very much backed by them and childrens mental health charities
    So no benefits of learning and communication get lost?

    And there’s no other options to investigate and try first?
    It will all be in the detail
    Wrong footing government and showing you are leading on the popular agenda from opposition, and actually achieving things, is exactly what is needed from opposition.

    Wrong footing government and showing you are leading on the popular agenda from opposition, and actually achieving things… by doing away with investigations and any consideration of inherent vice, without bothering with pilots schemes, without observing what happens in Australia as time passes, just diving straight in based on seeing something on morning television and told is hugely popular in voodoo polls, is exactly THE WRONG WAY to show you are ready again for power.

    Do you see my point?
    No
    I followed it closely when proposed, argued and introduced in Australia. I can tell you the key piece of detail straight away - it’s not a ban on under sixteens having access to phones, devices or internet use - it’s merely a ban on platforms giving under sixteens accounts. The rest is still parenting.

    So where some children will have better quality of life, better quality education and self learning, other children will be deprived this, so I liken it to those parents who banned Rock n Roll in the house, believing they were doing good. Banning Rock n Roll was actual bizarre, bad parenting.

    And the real kicker here is the actual problem - predatory and addictive algorithms - problem applies to everyone, all ages, not just children. Where is the actual policy needed?
    I have already said the answer will be in the detail but there is overwhelming parental support

    One of my children and his wife is in a constant battle with their children over the time on line and also their peer pressure to keep in 24/7 touch including often overnight
    That's always the big problem - you can have well-meaning parents but if every other kid at school has an e-scooter (actually illegal to use) and that's the way they meet up pals, what can you do?

    What this legislation needs paired with is an extensive and high-quality public information campaign making it clear what is supposed to be normal and appropriate behaviour. That seems seriously lacking at the moment for some reason - particularly changes to things like the Highway Code. There's more to governance than passing laws.
    Peer pressure in teenagers is very much part of the problem, and there is no way parents can control their behaviour when they are together or communicating as I said sometimes overnight
    Parents can put restrictions on devices and set controls, including locking devices overnight if required.

    My daughter has a phone with restrictions, including the restriction that I can see what apps she is using, that to install an app requires my consent (and we have consented to TikTok which she uses on rules my wife set). I can see how long she has spent on each app and set restrictions of time limits and time eg overnight or school hours where the device is locked.

    Poor behaviour can result in the device being locked as a punishment too.
    If that’s how things are in a libertarian household, I fear for all the other kids….
    LOL!

    Libertarian means that the state does not set overly burdensome regulations, not that parents don't.

    If the state was monitoring like I am for my kids, then I would be very concerned at that authoritarianism - but I bought the phone for her and gave it to her with those conditions. She can accept our conditions, or not have the restrictions.

    Parents should feel free to be parents.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    Andy_JS said:

    For cricket lovers only - England are currently playing Sri Lanka in a ODI, and are 38/1 chasing 271. I rather enjoyed this comment over at Cricinfo:

    "In this increasingly scary and unpredictable world, how reassuringly familiar it is to see Crawley nick off early."

    Has Duckett performed similarly?
    No, he got 62.

    Current score 142/2, England need 130 runs from 110 balls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,404
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    For cricket lovers only - England are currently playing Sri Lanka in a ODI, and are 38/1 chasing 271. I rather enjoyed this comment over at Cricinfo:

    "In this increasingly scary and unpredictable world, how reassuringly familiar it is to see Crawley nick off early."

    Has Duckett performed similarly?
    No, he got 62.

    Current score 142/2, England need 130 runs from 110 balls.
    Oh lord. Now we are in trouble.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,221
    Scott_xP said:

    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Ukrainian, Russian and US officials will hold their first trilateral talks to end Russia’s war, Volodymyr Zelensky says.
    The talks will take place in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday

    2 v 1. I'd want at least a Macron, Carney or Tusk in the room too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    edited 3:11PM
    Dammit, 144/3, Root lbw for 61, having been originally given not out, review shows that the ball pitched right on the line of the stumps.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,173
    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,880
    Some rare good news

    @VoteHub

    NEWS — Trump plans to campaign in the 2026 midterms like he’s on the ballot, turning control of Congress into a referendum on his presidency.

    Source: @nypost
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,880
    Leon said:

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    Trump on NATO: "I've always said, will they be there if we ever needed them? That's really the ultimate test. I'm not sure of that. We've never needed them. They'll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan and this or that. And they did. They stayed a little back, off the front lines."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,388
    Roger said:

    viewcode said:

    @Roger, the Oscars nominees are being announced. Who do you think will win?

    Probably 'One battle after another' or 'Hamnet'. Have the nominations come through yet?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgyyqkn0yvo
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,455
    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    Radical Right-wing Lunatic supports Radical Right-wing Lunatic!

    I'm Shocked! Shocked!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,182
    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,976
    Jenrick bounce or outlier

    https://x.com/i/status/2014347207902671049
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    If you want to know how much of the US currently sees the UK, then @Leon is right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,455
    edited 3:23PM

    Is there anyone in Britain more plugged into Trump's thinking than Liz Truss? This may be where his administration is planning to go next:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/2010056953096224961

    The model has failed.

    The US needs to take the next step.

    The United Nations building in New York should be closed down.

    Has she moved to Trump's USA?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,215

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    Is it just me that is bothered by what is hidden by the asterisk between the h and the i there?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,455
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    If you want to know how much of the US currently sees the UK, then @Leon is right.
    Will the Mid-terms be free and fair? How about WH 2028?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,620
    Great news for haters of democracy:

    "Assisted dying bill backers say it is ‘near impossible’ it will pass House of Lords
    Exclusive: Legislation thought unlikely even to be put to vote before timing out after delay tactics by opponents
    "

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/22/assisted-dying-bill-near-impossible-pass-house-of-lords
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    CatMan said:

    Great news for haters of democracy:

    "Assisted dying bill backers say it is ‘near impossible’ it will pass House of Lords
    Exclusive: Legislation thought unlikely even to be put to vote before timing out after delay tactics by opponents
    "

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/22/assisted-dying-bill-near-impossible-pass-house-of-lords

    Awesome work from the Lords on this.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,611

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    Is it:

    - complaining about cancelling elections;
    - complaining about abandoning jury trials; or
    - complaining about bringing in blasphemy laws

    that you consider shitty?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,812
    He likes bouncing, boing boing boing ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnpY2vCwvU0
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,075
    Labour will be in single figures soon:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 32% (+4)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    GRN: 17% (-1)
    LAB: 14% (-1)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK
    , 21 Jan.
    Changes w/ 14 Jan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,173
    Heh

    RFM: 32% (+4)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    GRN: 17% (-1)
    LAB: 14% (-1)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,286
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    If you want to know how much of the US currently sees the UK, then @Leon is right.
    If I want to know what people misled by alt right propaganda think, I can look at much of the US or Leon or you. If I want to know what’s so bad about Donald Trump, I can look at the real world.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,404
    When I said that this was going to be close I wasn't taking into account the traditional England collapse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    Okay two stupid stumpings in ten minutes. Need to go the full Bazball now.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,620
    Sandpit said:

    CatMan said:

    Great news for haters of democracy:

    "Assisted dying bill backers say it is ‘near impossible’ it will pass House of Lords
    Exclusive: Legislation thought unlikely even to be put to vote before timing out after delay tactics by opponents
    "

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/22/assisted-dying-bill-near-impossible-pass-house-of-lords

    Awesome work from the Lords on this.
    Can we cancel Brexit too please?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,388
    CatMan said:

    Great news for haters of democracy:

    "Assisted dying bill backers say it is ‘near impossible’ it will pass House of Lords
    Exclusive: Legislation thought unlikely even to be put to vote before timing out after delay tactics by opponents
    "

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/22/assisted-dying-bill-near-impossible-pass-house-of-lords

    You have to get both houses to agree. I don't know if going thru the House of Commons twice is enough to force it thru: I've been told that the Salisbury Convention isn't applicable to private members' bills, which means the HoC can't force it thru the HoL nonconsensually.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,173

    Leon said:

    Labour. Cancelling elections. Abandoning Jury trials. Bringing in blasphemy laws

    Tell me again what’s so uniquely bad about Donald Trump?

    It hadn't taken you long to remind us of your obnoxious sh*ittyness.
    I’ve often wondered if you are brain damaged. I don’t mean that personally. Just a holistic view of your remarks over several years. You write and talk like someone who only has a basic spinal cord and rudimentary nervous system. Like a kind of human newt - or perhaps a sea slug that farts as a means of propulsion

    Like I said, this is not meant as an insult
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,388

    Labour will be in single figures soon:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 32% (+4)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    GRN: 17% (-1)
    LAB: 14% (-1)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK
    , 21 Jan.
    Changes w/ 14 Jan.
    FON is sui generis: wait for the other pollsters
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,173
    Can someone tell me why Labour are going all Donald Trump with extra blasphemy laws and actually cancelling elections? And negating democracy?

    I can’t work it out. Why are they doing this? It’s so mystifying

    RFM: 32% (+4)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    GRN: 17% (-1)
    LAB: 14% (-1)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,469
    French Navy appears to have picked up another dodgy Russian tanker.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2014360094234816991
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,697
    Scott_xP said:

    11 of the 25 countries on Trump's Board of Peace are currently banned from immigrant visas to the United States.

    That's ok. The meetings will be on zoom.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,199
    Sandpit said:

    Okay two stupid stumpings in ten minutes. Need to go the full Bazball now.

    At 167/6 they already have.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,611
    edited 3:42PM
    Leon said:

    Can someone tell me why Labour are going all Donald Trump with extra blasphemy laws and actually cancelling elections? And negating democracy?

    I can’t work it out. Why are they doing this? It’s so mystifying

    RFM: 32% (+4)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    GRN: 17% (-1)
    LAB: 14% (-1)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Baxtered, gives a Reform majority of 218.

    Ref 434
    Green 54
    SNP 44
    LD 41
    Con 21
    Lab 20

    (Gorton and Denton goes Green on that split, FWIW)
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