Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
I have been advising laying Andy Burnham to succeed Sir Keir Starmer mostly on the grounds that he’s not an MP and he cannot double job as Mayor of Greater Manchester, and that there’s no certainty he’d win a by-election.
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Re-upping from the other day…
Andy Burnham allies boasted that his deal to get Andrew Gwynne to stand down and run in his seat was “all sewn up”.
Now sounds like announcement within hours.
https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2014297530100576321?s=20
EXC:
Could Andy Burnham be on the brink of becoming a member of the Parliament? Well he faces a BIG hurdle.
There is a new rule - introduced in the 2026 Labour rule book https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Rule-Book-2026.pdf
About Mayors wanting to become MP.
It says: “Directly Elected Mayors and Police and Crime Commissioners must seek the express permission of the NEC/SEC/WEC (as applicable) before seeking nomination as Labour candidates for the Westminster Parliament. The NEC/SEC/WEC’s decision shall be final”
Andy Burnham would have to stand down as Metro Mayor of Manchester, triggering an election for that post which Labour is not guaranteed to win and will cost hundreds of thousands of pounds.
So these are the grounds that could be used to block Burnham by the NEC.
I’m told Morgan McSweeny thinks he’s got the NEC sewn up to block Burnham. But you never quite know.
If Burnham is granted permission to apply for the seat, the NEC does a long and a shortlist.
The long list over email, then the shortlisting is done by a panel.
The panel has 3 members of the NEC, one member of the board and a local constituency rep. The panel is chosen by the office of the general secretary, Hollie Ridley, who is close to Morgan, decides the panel.
So it’s far from clear he wins this
1 personal phone, 1 for my Apple Watch, 1 for my iPad.
I also have 1 for my work mobile and one for my work iPad which also hotspots.
Trying to engineer a by-election to get a mayor back into Parliament looks awfully like a stitchup, but will the Tories and Lib Dems want to stand aside or run paper candidates to let Reform challenge Burnham and keep their momentum running? Will Greens and WhateverTheyCallThemselvesThisWeek Party want to run hard and risk a Reform win?
I actually like Burnham, he has done well in Manchester, and deserves huge praise for the way he pushed forward the Hillsborough Inquiry after being booed at the Anfield memorial service while sports minister.
Still not sure that trying to fix a by-election works though.
Will the Reform candidate be one of the ex-Tory MPs who have defected to them?
What does he do if Polanski stands for the Greens, and one of the ex-Tory defectors for Reform?
If he's coming back to the House it is purely to take on the role of PM and nothing less. Perhaps Starmer will just tell him to fuck off.
I reckon he'd win. If allowed to stand (he won't be is my guess...).
Do the Lib Dems have any councillors in the constituency? We know what their by-election machine can do if they have a toehold, and there's a fair old run-in to May to work the seat.
Turnout was well down last time, I'm thinking that Burnham wins at a canter if he gets the nomination but anyone else and it's probably a loss to Reform with a low Labour turnout.
We will have today's SCOTUS ruling on the Federal Reserve, which is Trump Performative since his term finishes in about 2 months anyway aiui.
We also have that Trump just ran away on Lindsey Halligan, his ineligible Attorney General who Pam Bondi and the other munchkins have been resolutely defending in the face of a 'corrupt, radical far left Court System' which wishes - shock! horror! - to defend the US Constitution.
Did he not also run away on the Abrego Garcia case?
Whenever it gets any serious attention he seems to fold.
I know they let Livingstone back in, after he won the London Mayoralty as an independent, but Starmer seems keener on keeping people out of the party.
Now, leaked papers circulating among Tory MPs have been passed to The Spectator detailing exactly how that strategy would work. Three core groups of voters have been identified by the party’s strategists, led by Stephen Gilbert. These are described as ‘Potential Conservatives’, ‘persuasion voters’ and ‘tactical voters.’"
https://spectator.com/article/revealed-inside-the-tories-60-seat-election-strategy/
I personally fail to see all the Labour MPs waving him along as he sails into the leadership. Are they really likely to feel that they are collectively so useless?
(And please insert a rant about how awful Power BI is for deep linking).
For two centuries they have told us they are the shining light, the beacon of democracy; its powerhouse and irreducible core.
All absolute fucking tosh.
Anne Applebaum
@anneapplebaum.bsky.social
US law requires 2/3 Senate approval for international treaties
https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3mcz4iq2qvs2g
Stopping him will just make SKS and so look desperate and even weaker than they currently are...
If Andy Burnham doesn't get the Labour nomination but decides to run as an independent, and then wins the by election.
Can he still be run for labour leader if 80 labour MP's back him?
I've still not won.
The lottery website will close for a major update this weekend.
The facility to set a preference for whether free lucky dips go into Wednesday or Saturday draw is being withdrawn but any existing preferences will be retained; you just won't be able to change it.
A cynic might suggest Allwyn simply forgot to include this in its redesign or testing but who am I to question our Czech lottery overlords?
Anyway, if you do want to change your preference, pull your finger out.
Sam Freedman
@samfr.bsky.social
As I've said before this is the only seat I could see Burnham winning. Tory/Reform vote is less than half the 2024 Labour one.
And it's in an area where Burnham has high approval ratings. But NEC would have to let him stand.
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mcz2swfdvr26
It isn't only the Starmer camp who won't want Burnham. The camp of every other MP with leadership ambitions won't want him either. That's a lot of grinding axes.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Rule-Book-2025.pdf
There's only one KING.
Seeking to defend only half of their already-record-low tally of seats is a remarkably pessimistic strategy, although maybe a realistic one.
It's notable that the biggest obstacle they may face with their own 'potential' supporters next time is the feeling that "they cannot win" - the card they've played for generations against a myriad of smaller parties. Karma at last....
Seeking to put the economy at the heart of their strategy whilst remaining blindly opposed to any sort of closer economic co-operation with the EU isn't an approach over solid ground.
Attacking Labour as the party of welfare, however, is clearly a strong attack line focused on a clear weak spot for the government.
If Tory canvassers are going to come round to claim that their party has "learned from its mistakes", I'll be interested to hear precisely how?
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Markets are reacting negatively to news Andy Burnham has a route to Parliament to challenge Keir Starmer
The pound dropped vs the dollar, erasing an earlier gain to trade 0.1% lower
Gilts fell, sending the 10-year yield two basis points higher to 4.48%
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2014299011746873839
Swapping PMs two years after a landslide is just going to feed the "uni-party" feeling amongst many voters.
They are all the same etc etc...
Not sure I could cope with him playing the martyr . Personally I find him grating and he thinks he’s the second coming .
The piece is worth a read, as is Jenrick's Mea Non Culpa interview.
In terms of achievements, I think that Regional Mayors, and entrepreneurial cities somewhat on the Victorian pattern, are perhaps more important for the future of the country rather than rat-fights in the Westminster sack.
1) would he be better than SKS?
2) would he be better at retaining Labour seats than an SKS lead Labour party in the next election?
I suspect the answer to both those questions is that neither would be difficult to achieve...
Burnham (IMO): No.
Being mayor means that he can blame not spending more money on national government. So he can advocate free owls for all.
One of Starmer’s problems is not being able to convince his party and MPs of why any restrictions on Owl Provision are required.
"Former Labour minister Andrew Gwynne is on the brink of standing down as an MP, ministers and party officials believe."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14rrez0mr4o
When I read "60-seat strategy" I assumed that was +60 seats, looking at winning back 60 target seats. Not only holding on to 60 seats total.
But now, after your comment, I look at the article and it really is 60 seats total. Cor. And indeed. Blimey.
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
Andrew Gywnne has been seriously ill for the best part of two years. Not everything is about intra-Labour beef.
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3mcz56a4ic222
Burnham has said very little about what his alternative policy programme for the country is. There's lots of potential for him to be a do-all-the-wrong-things PM, a Labour mini-Truss. It's a lot easier to make things worse than people realise.
Is Andy B sensible? I don't know.
I do know that it's easier to be the King Over The Water than to actually cross The Water in a bid to become King.
Burnham chose not to go back to Westminster in 2024, when it would have been easy. But now is presumably his last chance to use the pot or get off it.
Current Nowcast Projection for Gorton & Denton:
LAB: 29.8% (-20.9)
RFM: 26.9% (+12.8)
GRN: 24.1% (+11.0)
WPB: 8.0% (-2.3)
CON: 6.1% (-1.8)
LDM: 5.1% (+1.3)
Changes w/ GE2024."
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2014297372705140736
May we live in interesting times. 😊
I also think that for all his King of the North nonsense, being a metro mayor is rather easier than being PM. My sense is the FLSOJ (Johnson, for it is he) was not a bad London major. But he was a terrible PM. Majors can be figureheads and cheerleaders and boosters. And they can always, ALWAYS blame the government for a lack of money, investment, cancelling HS2 etc.
And an M&S Eccles cake which my wife bought me for pudding, warmed up in the microwave. Today is turning out very well indeed.
All the evidence is that he's a fully committed believer in the magic money tree, who hasn't yet realised that the party ended in 2008, and we're now well into the hangover.
Truss was at least trying to achieve growth, in the hope that it would start to bring in more tax revenue to offset the losses from her tax cuts - a kind of fiscal version of diving an aircraft as the first step to pull off a loop the loop. We'll never know if she would have made it, as her party saw the ground heading towards them, panicked, threw her out of the cockpit and pulled out of the dive.
Burnham is going to try the dive without any intention off pulling off a loop. He's just hoping that by the time the ground arrives it will be someone else's problem. The problem is that all he'll have round him are people cheerleading for "more nose down now" and "look how fast we're going - isn't it great!".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14rrez0mr4o
There's a new Lords amendment that will give Mayors the power to approve new underground or tram projects instead of waiting 3+ years to get the Transport Secretary to sign off.
That means Tracy Brabin could approve the Leeds tram or Sadiq Khan could approve the Bakerloo Line Extension.
This amendment needs to be adopted. Mayors know their area best. They should be able to pledge to voters that they will build new infrastructure and then be able to approve, fund and deliver it.
In Spain and France, local leaders have all the power to deliver local transport. In turn, they build projects 2x faster and for less than half the price.
https://x.com/Ben_A_Hopkinson/status/2014284561027334422
Is there another way of looking at this? One of the things that is condemning Starmer's premiership is the chronic lack of talent or ability on his front bench. If he is going to make a success of the time he has left he needs a stronger team. You could argue all day as to whether or not Burnham makes the team stronger but I do not think that there is any doubt he has some political talent. The same applies to Kahn who may well also be looking for a new gig in due course.
A lot depends on how long Starmer wants. If he would be content with winning the next election, even with a much reduced majority, and leaving half way through the next Parliament then he should be paving the way for such meagre talent as the party has, not creating obstacles. Of course if he loses the next election then he would be standing down anyway.
Might focus a few minds.
As well as saying the US might still end up owning Greenland, he said NATO troops were not on the frontline in Afghanistan
Fuck this guy
https://assets.ctfassets.net/nv7y93idf4jq/5zslFpcgkoSIacwMQIqUI/831fa8090e4ecbd401bf98d803ec037c/17-1242_Bus_Times_204__205__206__207.pdf
EDIT: Even if you are 9 years out!:
https://assets.ctfassets.net/nv7y93idf4jq/7rSq9QI2usHE7O2TEYRnFz/bcbeff3eb37285beba80ddbbeadbd179/BN_10_Tameside_map.pdf
When I was travelling with work I had a collection of photos of outlandish toilet arrangements
A Vietnamese hotel had both a glass walled shower room in the middle of the room and glass toilet cubicle door with telephone in the cubicle
Boutique hotel in B A I snuck into the suite to grab photos of the half-height glass surround en-suite with external urinal
Best hotel room for photos, got booked into the last available room somewhere in Bulgaria, Presidential Suite on the top floor, lounge with real fire, small ship themed balcony with ship's wheel, bathroom with shower, bath and jacuzzi the length of one side of the hotel and absolute priority over the lift ... when I pressed the button it stopped whatever it was doing, came to my floor and didn't stop anywhere else until it got to the floor I selected. I had a lot of fun with that
I think Polanski has a much better understanding of what the constraints are than Burnham does, and would be less risky with respect to the bond markets.
Where are Belarus and similars going to get their $1bn fee * from?
Current confirmed participants (Wiki):
United States
Albania
Argentina
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Egypt
Hungary
Indonesia
Israel
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Kuwait
Mongolia
Morocco
* Is it one-off or annual?