Another one of my 100/1 tips is looking good – politicalbetting.com
Another one of my 100/1 tips is looking good – politicalbetting.com
Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) tells CNN that he is starting to think seriously about running for president: https://t.co/ELRlyRA8Np pic.twitter.com/WiUZbwaUEW
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I’d take the ferry and car option, and you should get an early start off the ferry. If you want to break the back of the driving on the first day, go stay in Tubingen - the hotel schloss at the top of the hill is a great place to stay, and the whole old town is laid out beneath you. Or, to balance the driving between the two days, you could look at Heidelberg, or one of the characterful small towns along the Rhine around Mannheim. If you are driving to Germany, make sure you have your emissions sticker sorted for the vehicle well ahead.
For a party of five, the costs of individual plane or train tickets probably make the car an economic option; the downside is obviously the travel time there and back, which you may or may not see as part of your holiday.
I'd be quite surprised if he actually gets it.
Coupled with the latest photo coming out of Minnesota, I rather fear that we've moved beyond the "Do you still think you can control them?" stage of the movie.
Does Brian have any other zingers later on?
No doubt he is running.
Buttigieg has the repeated problem of the later states and their demographics.
One of the ways this works in Russia is that anyone genuinely an electoral threat to Putin is prevented from running, and then people who won't win are allowed to run to create the illusion of a contest.
So perhaps Kamala Harris is a good bet for the Democratic nomination. She'd lose and create the appearance of a genuine contest.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/states-host-1st-democratic-primaries-dnc-decide-amid/story?id=129278874
He also couldn’t rig it in 2020 even as President
It shouldn't make a difference, but I think it's the kid's hat that does it.
Gavin Newsom is definitely running, he turned up in Davos yesterday with Alex Soros and not as part of the official US delegation.
My guess is that it won't.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frecciarossa_1000
BUT pretty much everything she warned about Trump has come true. That is a pretty handy thing to have for another Presidential run.
That said, how much do the voters like being reminded "You fucked up..."?
He could be a great VP pick.
Countless thousands of other kids will be wearing similar hats this morning.
On July 20th (latest date you can book today, rolling 6 months in advance) a block booked couchette from Brussels to Salzburg is €355
Therefore, a flight from Manchester to Salzberg would be my favoured option.
This is worth a read:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/europe-loves-night-trains-why-050232613.html
#COMPETITION
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 29
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 5
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 25
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 15%
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 21%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 10
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £150 billion
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.1%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Brazil
Although however anybody can vote for Vance once is a question for the ages. He's no Donald Trump.
The other way these things are resolved is total defeat in a war, and I'd rather not go down that road, thanks.
She is still extremely popular with a large slice of Democratic voters - though, as you say, probably not quite enough to win the nomination herself.
I have railed it from London to Brussels to Amsterdam, however, in 2015.
Newsom is clear favourite on 2.65.
AOC is second on 8.6.
The dream ticket is Newsom with AOC as his VP. That covers all the bases.
AOC is very young and can wait eight years for the presidency, and use that time to prove herself.
Also Newsom is straight out of central casting as President.
If he wasn't a democrat, Trump might even endorse him. That would be very Trumpian.
And nothing to do with sovereign bases.
Danish Prime Minister shoots down talk of U.S. sovereign bases in Greenland 🇬🇱 and says she is open to an agreement on Greenland with the U.S. only as long as Denmark’s territorial integrity is respected.
“NATO is fully aware of the Kingdom of Denmark's position. We can negotiate on everything political; security, investments, economy. But we cannot negotiate on our sovereignty. I have been informed that this has not been the case.“
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2014239663326675409
There is a real risk that ticket makes the same mistakes Harris made in 2024. The Dems have to earn a lot of respect again.
https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/den001.asp
The Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark, being parties to the North Atlantic Treaty signed at Washington on April 4, 1949 having regard to their responsibilities thereunder for the defense of the North Atlantic Treaty area, desiring to contribute to such defense and thereby to their own defense in accordance with the principles of self-help and mutual aid, and having been requested by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to negotiate arrangements under which armed forces of the parties to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization may make use of facilities in Greenland in defense of Greenland and the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty area, have entered into an Agreement for the benefit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in terms as set forth below:
Article I.
The Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark, in order to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic Treaty area by uniting their efforts for collective defense and for the preservation of peace and security and for the development of their collective capacity to resist armed attack, will each take such measures as are necessary or appropriate to carry out expeditiously their respective and joint responsibilities in Greenland, in accordance with NATO plans.
Article II.
In order that the Government of the United States of America as a party to the North Atlantic Treaty may assist the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark by establishing and/or operating such defense areas as the two Governments, on the basis of NATO defense plans, may from time to time agree to be necessary for the development of the defense of Greenland and the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty area, and which the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark is unable to establish and operate singlehanded, the two Governments in respect of the defense areas thus selected, agree to the following..
How free and fair they'll be and whether the result will be respected is an open question but there will definitely be elections.
She might not appeal to the independents but she can up the turnout of young Democrats.
Newson is very canny and he'll be in charge of the campaign.
Harris on 18.
Buttigieg on 19.5
Kelly on 20.
Clear frontrunners are Newsom and AOC. They'd make a great team.
Okay, its time.
#COMPETITION
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 39
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 4
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 50
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 25
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14%
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 23%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 7
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £142 billion
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.1%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. England
I think I may be the first one to suggest the last answer. For shame, for shame.
In this case, on how the sunk cost fallacy contributes to absurd decision making.
Ajax: We're going to turn this challenge that we've had into an opportunity, Army chief says
https://www.forcesnews.com/services/army/ajax-were-going-turn-challenge-weve-had-opportunity-armys-boss-says
Make American California Again isn’t even a popular message in California any more, and New York is likely to be an even bigger mess by the time 2028 comes around.
Too many Dems are still going on about illegal immigration and gender stuff that are 80-20 issues against them. Trump and the GOP are pretty good at finding these things and making the Dems look stupid by reflexively opposing them. This month they appear to be in favour of NGO fraud and against voter ID because it’s racist. Black people in general really don’t think it’s racist, and think it’s insulting that it’s even mentioned in this way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkRImkcKgkU
Voting to leave a growing political union that didn't have a common defence policy or any plan to achieve one was, at the time, rational. It could now be described as obvious.
Right link!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMPe_e-WRMk
They’ve been trying to fix it for years now. Send it back and sue the arse off the supplier, then order the Korean IFV off-the-shelf which will be loads cheaper anyway.
I would like to see Buttigieg on the ticket as VP but I think having him head it would be giving the Republicans a chance and after foisting Trump on the US and the world they don't deserve one.
His scenario is that everything is fine, America has a legal system and a constitution.
My scenario is that America is in the midst of a fascist takeover where the rule of law has been suspended and the constitution is being ignored.
If they lose power they all go to jail. And they think they are unstoppable. Why bother with elections you could lose?
The mid-terms are the pivot point. If they go ahead in all seats unimpeded, then lets talk about 2028 presidential candidates. Until then, its only speculation there will be a requirement for candidates. And we're increasingly likely to have Kelly and Newsom and the others arrested, not run for election. Seditious traitors don't get to stage faked elections to steal the country, they get bundled into black cars by ski-masked goons.
Why do people still think there's some sort of bodge fix that can be done that hasn't previously been done?
Remember, HYUFD says that Russia is a democracy because they hold elections.
Whoever does win the nomination needs to remember who are those who actually decide the election, because it’s not the States where you can weigh the blue vote. To say they need a balanced ticket would be something of an understatement.
Buttigieg is IMHO still too inexperienced, he’s not been a Senator or a Governor, and his stint as Transport under Biden was mixed at best with a number of infrastructure failures and accidents.
What’s really important is that they have lots of debates and let the primiries run their course, rather than the DNC Establishment trying to stitch things up early as they have done in the recent past. Pretty sure that 2008 was their last real primary season, they need to have much more policy discussion and debate as a party.
"But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what's offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.
This is not sovereignty. It's the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice – compete with each other for favor, or to combine to create a third path with impact."
This was a direct and very clear critique of the Starmer "special deal" approach which got us the 5% off tariffs and has been the basis of our "handling" of the Trump grotesque until now. In contrast, the unified position of Europe and Canada has produced yet another Trump TACO on Greenland very quickly. It shows the way ahead. I very much hope that Starmer learns from this and evolves his strategy. I do not doubt for a moment that he was being advised by the Foreign Office that "best buds" was the way to go and that he pursued that believing that to be in the national interest, whatever his personal distaste. So long as the lesson is learned no great harm is done.
Scotus seems about to do a Dorothy on Trump's Cowardly Lion wrt his desire to sack the head of the Federal Reserve Board.
(Unless have my time zones around my neck and it has happened already one way or another.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb3hF8zQzdI
Apple and Google share prices going gangbusters is little to do with California as a place politically.
Thanks for running competition again. Number of questions is a bit more manageable!
1. Dems gain 14 seats
2. 3 gains for Dems
3. 53
4. 41
5. Reform 16%
6. 14%
7. 8
8. Keir Starmer
9. No
10. £128bn
11. 2.1%
12. England
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said individuals will soon be prosecuted for their role in what he called the “rigged 2020 election,” continuing his fixation on an election he lost.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said “everybody now knows that” the 2020 presidential election was rigged and “people will soon be prosecuted for what they did.“
On follically-challenged Presidents, I didn't think Eisenhower had much hair on the top of his head but I don't think he was bald.
As much as trying to figure out what's likely to happen at our next General Election, trying to figure out who will even be running in the 2028 US Presidential election (I'm pretty sure there will be one) is also a challenge.
Presumably, Vance will throw his headgear of choice in the ring but could there be other Republican possibles less wedded to Trump? I'm trying to think of the last time a sitting President or Vice President lost the nomination (as distinct from the election) on either side and I'm struggling - I suppose it's possible had Bobby Kennedy lived, he'd have defeated Hubert Humphrey for the Democrat nomination in 1968.
The Democrat field is wide open and if the party does well in the midterms, it's likely to get even busier.
I recall some bright spark getting 250/1 about a Chicago Senator becoming President a couple of decades back. Whether such value exists in the form of Kelly I don't know - he certainly is a possible. Newsom seems to be the obvious place to start - I'm hearing contradictory views on whether he has transformed California or whether it remains a hellhole (presumably depending on your political viewpoint). California Governors have won before so it's not out of the question.
Dem lawmakers are seditious traitors, they rigged the 2020 election, we're prosecuting them, we can't allow more traitors to hold rigged elections so we're removing the right of these states to run their elections. Etc.
Its directly on the path towards not running any election in places in November. The state will try and run an election. The federal government will try and run an election, the ensuing violence allows them to suspend the whole process just long enough to remove the dems from Congress to pass enabling acts removing the power of congress to think it is a co-equal branch of government with the White House.
Which political manoeuvre are you impressed by?