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Another one of my 100/1 tips is looking good – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,464

    a

    RobD said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    It also depends on if they're counting tablets and dongles with 4/5G connections as a mobile phone sub or not.

    The CIA world Factbook has us slightly higher per capita than France (1.22 to 1.17) and significantly lower than Japan (1.78!).
    Alarm systems sometimes require phone connections via a dedicated SIM, too. Chip and pin machines, also.
    There are lots of devices that have a SIM to send back data without a WiFi connection, but I'd have thought they wouldn't necessarily be counted as phone subscriptions.

    Still, anyway, number of phone subscriptions is an exceptionally poor proxy for population numbers. If the water companies weren't discharging so much sewage into rivers and the sea, then you'd think they would be a good source of an independent estimate.
    Both the sewage (water) companies and supermarkets seem to think the population estimates are a bit low.
    There’s likely to be less variation in using those data sources for population estimates.

    SIM cards is a bad way of doing it. How many million cars are now ‘connected’, as well as alarms, card machines etc, plus all those with two or three phones anyway?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,072
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    These threads are coming thick and fast. Anyhow, FPT:

    Cookie said:

    Hi pb brains trust - any views on the following:

    We (me, wife, three kids 16-11) are hoping to go from Manchester to Austria for a summer holiday. Would you:
    - overnight ferry from Hull to Rotterdam then drive with overnight stop in Germany (probably cheapest,can pack as much stuff as we want, but would take up two days travelling there and two days travelling back. If si, where would you stay?
    - fly then hire a car (surprisingly expenaive even with Easyjet but only two and a half hours to our destination from Munich)
    - train to Brussels then Brussels-Salzburg sleeper (I'd always wanted to travel that way but some reports are discouraging)
    - something else?

    The sleeper tickets are insanely popular, given such limited supply, and probably sold out as soon as they went on sale, assuming the ones for your travel date already are. So you can probably discount that option.

    I’d take the ferry and car option, and you should get an early start off the ferry. If you want to break the back of the driving on the first day, go stay in Tubingen - the hotel schloss at the top of the hill is a great place to stay, and the whole old town is laid out beneath you. Or, to balance the driving between the two days, you could look at Heidelberg, or one of the characterful small towns along the Rhine around Mannheim. If you are driving to Germany, make sure you have your emissions sticker sorted for the vehicle well ahead.

    For a party of five, the costs of individual plane or train tickets probably make the car an economic option; the downside is obviously the travel time there and back, which you may or may not see as part of your holiday.

    Plus, the chance of all five in a party sleeping well on a train is close to nil. Going to be at least one grump the next day.
    A consideration will be how many compartments you need - on the old sleeper trains, which I used every year back in the day, you'd commonly find two-person or four-person cabins, so with five you'd be after at least two compartments. I always slept reasonably on a train - yes, you'd get woken up in the night by random noises or when the train stopped suddenly, but the movement of the train always sent me back to sleep quite quickly. The biggest hassle travelling in a small compartment with others is the lack of floor space, especially when the beds are all down, such that getting dressed or washed normally involved a complicated rotation-dance between beds and floor so that everyone got their turn.
    Much simpler and relaxing doing it by car , no humping luggage for five, you can set your own schedule and the drive is a great part of the holiday, you do need the extra couple of days either side though.
    Before the pandemic, I did a few European trips by train with the dog, and it was a good way to go, convenient if you want to visit cities. The problem was the dog crap that filled up much of the suitcase leaving very little space for my stuff and leading to a fortnight spent frequently washing clothes. The car is, as you say, much easier, but you do need the time, and need to adjust the itinerary to reflect the increasingly restrictive rules on driving and parking in urban areas in much of Europe.
    I'm still wondering how literally I should read "dog crap" here.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,452
    Scott_xP said:

    Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham

    Interesting.
    The King of the North is the one person who could currently give Farage a run for his money in the Red Wall.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,232

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good trading bet.
    I'd be quite surprised if he actually gets it.

    Hes also bald. When was the last time the oscenely shallow Americans chose someone bald?
    William will be our first bald King, and we won't be able to choose...
    George V had quite a 'high forehead'! I always think William looks like the pictures of him I saw when I collected stamps.
    I agree, the likeness is uncanny.
    They are all from a very very small gene pool, so hardly surprising.
    Russia's Nicky II and our George V looked like twins!
    I think the current Prince George looks quite a lot like Edward VIII. They both have the Hanoverian 'Oyster Eyes'
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,395
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump: “We are working on Egypt and Ethiopia.

    “A dam was built, and the water no longer flows the way it should. When I think of Egypt, I think of the Nile — and I think of the Nile with water in it.”

    It would be kind of cool to see the nilometers[*] actually functional with varying water levels again, but I suspect the side effects rather outweigh the increased tourist draw...

    [*] https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/nilometer -- some of them are impressive and beautiful bits of architecture.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,123
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    It also depends on if they're counting tablets and dongles with 4/5G connections as a mobile phone sub or not.

    The CIA world Factbook has us slightly higher per capita than France (1.22 to 1.17) and significantly lower than Japan (1.78!).
    Alarm systems sometimes require phone connections via a dedicated SIM, too. Chip and pin machines, also.
    There are lots of devices that have a SIM to send back data without a WiFi connection, but I'd have thought they wouldn't necessarily be counted as phone subscriptions.

    Still, anyway, number of phone subscriptions is an exceptionally poor proxy for population numbers. If the water companies weren't discharging so much sewage into rivers and the sea, then you'd think that would be a good source of an independent population estimate.
    My insulin pump control unit (limited mobile phone model from one gen ago roughly) has a dedicated connection, with which it updates an internet portal.

    My 2018 car also has something for location data and emergencies (including automatic contact).

    Plus the Smart Meter.

    And I'm not sure what else. Can you get one for the dog or the cat?
    I guess for the smart meter, and devices like the insulin pump, you can't switch provider, so these are all handled through some sort of mass corporate account and would be easy to exclude from the figures. Otherwise it's hard to see how the total would be below 100m.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,590
    On the @cookie travel to Austria question, we had a lovely similar holiday back in 2019 I think.

    Flew to Munich. S-Bahn to Muenchen Ostbahnhof. Then change to train through Rosenheim to Kufstein in Austria before needing a taxi (too late for the bus services, but the tourist buses were good earlier in the day) to the Wilden Kaiser valley.

    Don't know if that's where you are headed, but we had a great week, with very young kids at the time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,076
    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    I'm always surprised by how many people on trains, buses, etc, are using/holding two phones.
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 236


    I did a few European trips by train with the dog, and it was a good way to go, convenient if you want to visit cities. The problem was the dog crap that filled up much of the suitcase ….<</i>

    Can’t you put it in those black bags and hang it from a tree in the traditional dogsh!t bauble style?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,804

    NEW THREAD

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,452
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kelly is worth a long shot bet. Newsom and Buttigieg lead polls now though for the Democratic nomination and Buttigieg is likely to do best in early states. Harris also polls well but losing nominees who have never been President are rarely nominated again

    Newsom seems to be everywhere.

    No doubt he is running.

    Buttigieg has the repeated problem of the later states and their demographics.

    Buttigieg isn't second favourite for the nomination. He's way out at 19.5 on Betfair.
    Newsom is clear favourite on 2.65.
    AOC is second on 8.6.

    The dream ticket is Newsom with AOC as his VP. That covers all the bases.
    AOC is very young and can wait eight years for the presidency, and use that time to prove herself.

    Newsom-AOC risks scaring the horses with a population pissed off by Trump but still very wary of the Dems.

    There is a real risk that ticket makes the same mistakes Harris made in 2024. The Dems have to earn a lot of respect again.
    What mistakes did Harris make - other than being who she is? As far as I could tell it was entirely conventional campaign based on the bread and butter stuff like cost of living.

    The "culture war" stuff is blatant projection from the US right which too many people fall for. Even if you run a sober, sensible campaign, whatever candidate they pick will get an avalanche of "woke" histrionics regardless. They've already accused Kelly of sedition FFS, taking his pension away.

    Conversely, there is a risk that if you don't energetically condemn stuff like ICE you have a collapse in Democrat turnout. I'm really not convinced a softly softly approach will work in this political environment - they need really a distinctive and pro-active USP. Can't just sit there taking punches.
    The mistake Harris arguably made was being too loyal to Biden, and not creating more distance from him sooner.
    But she was, as very VP is, in an impossible bind on that score.

    She wasn't an outstanding candidate, but she certainly wasn't a terrible one, either.
    Among her problems was that she was status quo candidate when voters were hurting and wanted "change". Well, they surely got it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,596
    I admit I'd never heard of the GIUK gap until these recent shenanigans with Trump. Sir Keir absolutely needs to make this a household phrase, the 'UK' bit in particular. It will embarrass Nigel beyond measure if everyone knows he wants to relinquish control of it to a hostile power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,464

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kelly is worth a long shot bet. Newsom and Buttigieg lead polls now though for the Democratic nomination and Buttigieg is likely to do best in early states. Harris also polls well but losing nominees who have never been President are rarely nominated again

    Newsom seems to be everywhere.

    No doubt he is running.

    Buttigieg has the repeated problem of the later states and their demographics.

    Buttigieg isn't second favourite for the nomination. He's way out at 19.5 on Betfair.
    Newsom is clear favourite on 2.65.
    AOC is second on 8.6.

    The dream ticket is Newsom with AOC as his VP. That covers all the bases.
    AOC is very young and can wait eight years for the presidency, and use that time to prove herself.

    Newsom-AOC risks scaring the horses with a population pissed off by Trump but still very wary of the Dems.

    There is a real risk that ticket makes the same mistakes Harris made in 2024. The Dems have to earn a lot of respect again.
    What mistakes did Harris make - other than being who she is? As far as I could tell it was entirely conventional campaign based on the bread and butter stuff like cost of living.

    The "culture war" stuff is blatant projection from the US right which too many people fall for. Even if you run a sober, sensible campaign, whatever candidate they pick will get an avalanche of "woke" histrionics regardless. They've already accused Kelly of sedition FFS, taking his pension away.

    Conversely, there is a risk that if you don't energetically condemn stuff like ICE you have a collapse in Democrat turnout. I'm really not convinced a softly softly approach will work in this political environment - they need really a distinctive and pro-active USP. Can't just sit there taking punches.
    The mistake Harris arguably made was being too loyal to Biden, and not creating more distance from him sooner.
    But she was, as very VP is, in an impossible bind on that score.

    She wasn't an outstanding candidate, but she certainly wasn't a terrible one, either.
    Among her problems was that she was status quo candidate when voters were hurting and wanted "change". Well, they surely got it.
    She also didn’t even try and take credit for Biden’s positive achievements, such as the CHIPS investments which had widespread support and brought investment to Middle America.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,806
    edited 11:36AM

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    It also depends on if they're counting tablets and dongles with 4/5G connections as a mobile phone sub or not.

    The CIA world Factbook has us slightly higher per capita than France (1.22 to 1.17) and significantly lower than Japan (1.78!).
    Alarm systems sometimes require phone connections via a dedicated SIM, too. Chip and pin machines, also.
    There are lots of devices that have a SIM to send back data without a WiFi connection, but I'd have thought they wouldn't necessarily be counted as phone subscriptions.

    Still, anyway, number of phone subscriptions is an exceptionally poor proxy for population numbers. If the water companies weren't discharging so much sewage into rivers and the sea, then you'd think that would be a good source of an independent population estimate.
    My insulin pump control unit (limited mobile phone model from one gen ago roughly) has a dedicated connection, with which it updates an internet portal.

    My 2018 car also has something for location data and emergencies (including automatic contact).

    Plus the Smart Meter.

    And I'm not sure what else. Can you get one for the dog or the cat?
    I guess for the smart meter, and devices like the insulin pump, you can't switch provider, so these are all handled through some sort of mass corporate account and would be easy to exclude from the figures. Otherwise it's hard to see how the total would be below 100m.
    Yes - centralised contracts.

    The insulin pump one is part of a central NHS contract which is being extended to all Type I diabetics who want it (in England known to me - not sure on Wales, Scotland etc).

    In numbers there something like 400k-500k Type 1s in the UK, pump uptake was around 15-20% in say 2020, and the roll-out-to-everyone policy will take it up to perhaps 300k over several years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,628
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    He is another brainless twat who would have trouble tying his shoelaces I suspect.
    Extrapolating from dodgy datasets seems to be a popular activity these days.
    See also the claim that China's population is only half the official figure.

    Extraordinary claims require a lot of very solid evidence.
    One guy working tweeting a single number, that somehow confirms his deepest prejudices, is the absolute opposite of solid evidence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,623
    So Andrew Gwynne is off and Andrew Burnham gets a chance at a seat in the Commons. Prayers for the Leyton by election 1964 redux.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,623

    I assume wor Tony didn’t have to pay $1b

    He's on the A Team, providing cover for the worst of the worst.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,492
    edited 11:49AM

    So Andrew Gwynne is off and Andrew Burnham gets a chance at a seat in the Commons. Prayers for the Leyton by election 1964 redux.

    So Andrew Gwynne is off and Andrew Burnham gets a chance at a seat in the Commons. Prayers for the Leyton by election 1964 redux.

    The only problem is that if that happens there'll be another Reform loon in Parliament, Unless, by some miracle, the LibDems Greens win!

    Edited, having looked at the 2024 figures.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,623

    So Andrew Gwynne is off and Andrew Burnham gets a chance at a seat in the Commons. Prayers for the Leyton by election 1964 redux.

    So Andrew Gwynne is off and Andrew Burnham gets a chance at a seat in the Commons. Prayers for the Leyton by election 1964 redux.

    The only problem is that if that happens there'll be another Reform loon in Parliament, Unless, by some miracle, the LibDems win!
    That's true, but Burnham's hubris needs knocking down.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,492

    I assume wor Tony didn’t have to pay $1b

    He's on the A Team, providing cover for the worst of the worst.
    He's being a VERY silly boy, getting involved.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,492

    I admit I'd never heard of the GIUK gap until these recent shenanigans with Trump. Sir Keir absolutely needs to make this a household phrase, the 'UK' bit in particular. It will embarrass Nigel beyond measure if everyone knows he wants to relinquish control of it to a hostile power.

    Wasn't that why we occupied Iceland in 1940 or thereabouts`/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,364
    DavidL said:

    Here are the results of the Fairliered jury

    #COMPETITION

    Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 2

    Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 0

    Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 61

    Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 36

    UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14%

    Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 21%

    Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 9

    The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer

    Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No

    UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £146 billion

    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.2%

    Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Argentina

    I don’t expect free and fair US elections. There is a non negligible chance of European teams boycotting the World Cup.

    I think the risk of boycotts are much reduced after the TACO but there is certainly time for Trump to do something else as stupid. I am surprised you think the Democrats will make so little progress in the mid terms but presumably this is on the basis that the results will be fraudulent?
    I am currently very negative on the prospects for American democracy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,012
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good trading bet.
    I'd be quite surprised if he actually gets it.

    Hes also bald. When was the last time the oscenely shallow Americans chose someone bald?
    William will be our first bald King, and we won't be able to choose...
    Perhaps the first in the domestic competition, but the European title went to Charles the Bald in 843.

    Point of order: all paintings of him show lots of hair, so the title is thought to be ironic. Rather like 'Trump the genius' would be.
    If he is disqualified, the title goes to Owain the Bald, King of Strathclyde, early 11th century.

    The only painting seemingly surviving has him wearing a hat, so you may or may not be right
    I would be very surprised if any contemporary image of Owain the Bald exists.

    There's a picture of him here, but it doesn't say where it comes from:

    https://historica.fandom.com/wiki/Owain_Foel
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,364
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    These threads are coming thick and fast. Anyhow, FPT:

    Cookie said:

    Hi pb brains trust - any views on the following:

    We (me, wife, three kids 16-11) are hoping to go from Manchester to Austria for a summer holiday. Would you:
    - overnight ferry from Hull to Rotterdam then drive with overnight stop in Germany (probably cheapest,can pack as much stuff as we want, but would take up two days travelling there and two days travelling back. If si, where would you stay?
    - fly then hire a car (surprisingly expenaive even with Easyjet but only two and a half hours to our destination from Munich)
    - train to Brussels then Brussels-Salzburg sleeper (I'd always wanted to travel that way but some reports are discouraging)
    - something else?

    The sleeper tickets are insanely popular, given such limited supply, and probably sold out as soon as they went on sale, assuming the ones for your travel date already are. So you can probably discount that option.

    I’d take the ferry and car option, and you should get an early start off the ferry. If you want to break the back of the driving on the first day, go stay in Tubingen - the hotel schloss at the top of the hill is a great place to stay, and the whole old town is laid out beneath you. Or, to balance the driving between the two days, you could look at Heidelberg, or one of the characterful small towns along the Rhine around Mannheim. If you are driving to Germany, make sure you have your emissions sticker sorted for the vehicle well ahead.

    For a party of five, the costs of individual plane or train tickets probably make the car an economic option; the downside is obviously the travel time there and back, which you may or may not see as part of your holiday.

    Plus, the chance of all five in a party sleeping well on a train is close to nil. Going to be at least one grump the next day.
    A consideration will be how many compartments you need - on the old sleeper trains, which I used every year back in the day, you'd commonly find two-person or four-person cabins, so with five you'd be after at least two compartments. I always slept reasonably on a train - yes, you'd get woken up in the night by random noises or when the train stopped suddenly, but the movement of the train always sent me back to sleep quite quickly. The biggest hassle travelling in a small compartment with others is the lack of floor space, especially when the beds are all down, such that getting dressed or washed normally involved a complicated rotation-dance between beds and floor so that everyone got their turn.
    Much simpler and relaxing doing it by car , no humping luggage for five, you can set your own schedule and the drive is a great part of the holiday, you do need the extra couple of days either side though.
    Before the pandemic, I did a few European trips by train with the dog, and it was a good way to go, convenient if you want to visit cities. The problem was the dog crap that filled up much of the suitcase leaving very little space for my stuff and leading to a fortnight spent frequently washing clothes. The car is, as you say, much easier, but you do need the time, and need to adjust the itinerary to reflect the increasingly restrictive rules on driving and parking in urban areas in much of Europe.
    When I am on holiday with the dogs, I use disposable poo bags rather than putting their crap in my suitcase. It also means you don’t need to wash the clothes in your suitcase as often. 😄
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,129

    Sandpit said:

    How many people do we think have two mobile phones?

    Rupert Lowe has a figure of 91m active phone subscriptions, against a population figure of 69m people.

    He think that’s indicative of the population being higher than the official stats, but I’m not sure. I always had a company mobile in the uk.

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2014083705493483760

    I had two phones for several years - one for personal use, one for work. I now have a single phone with two SIMs - one UK SIM and one Irish SIM. I'm an Irish resident, but I guess I'm in Rupert Lowe's figure of 91m active UK phone subscriptions.
    Yes, two SIM phones are quite common. I have a Giffgaff SIM for use when my main provider has a weak signal.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,364

    NEW THREAD

    Another one? Don’t you have any work to do?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,736

    NEW THREAD

    Another one? Don’t you have any work to do?
    NOT ANOTHER ONE!
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