PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com

System · 7:33AM

PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com

The world may be going to hell in a handcart and it can sometimes it can feel as if contemplating the future is a pointless exercise but here is your chance to show some faith in that future.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · 7:33AM

Many thanks to Ben for collating all of this.

To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help Ben find your entry.

TheScreamingEagles · 7:33AM

Like previous years I am not entering to give other PBers a chance of winning.

Nigelb · 7:38AM

The range for UK growth is going to be large.

OnlyLivingBoy · 7:38AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
Like previous years I am not entering to give other PBers a chance of winning.

Legendary modesty klaxon.

Nigelb · 7:40AM

Putin is respected by the madman in the White House.
We are not.

Reporter: Have you invited Putin to be a member of the board of peace?

Trump: Yes

Reporter: Can you respond to Macron saying he will not join the board of peace?

Trump: Nobody wants him… I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and he’ll join
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2013476862987772170

The time for flattery is over.

WhisperingOracle · 7:42AM

This Chagos business is the definitive proof that Farage is up to his ears with Trump. It justifies the continued engagement with Trump for a UK audience, using the key Reform talking point of Starmerr's surrenders on Chagos compared to Trump.
Nigel tweets on it, then Trump posts on it too.

ydoethur · 7:43AM

OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than in the #competition last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.

ydoethur · 7:43AM

Nigelb said:
Putin is respected by the madman in the White House.
We are not.

Reporter: Have you invited Putin to be a member of the board of peace?

Trump: Yes

Reporter: Can you respond to Macron saying he will not join the board of peace?

Trump: Nobody wants him… I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and he’ll join
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2013476862987772170

The time for flattery is over.

He can't stop projecting, can he?

And he wants Americans to pay a fortune for his whines as well.

TheScreamingEagles · 7:44AM

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.

If you want to get a wooden spoon why not support the Welsh men's rugby union team?

ydoethur · 7:44AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
If you want to get a wooden spoon why not support the Welsh men's rugby union team?

I already do, but I was hoping for a better quality of wooden spoon.

IanB2 · 7:44AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
Like previous years I am not entering to give other PBers a chance of winning.

And, like previous years, Leon isn’t entering to give other PBers a chance to come last?

TheScreamingEagles · 7:45AM

To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help Ben find your entry.

TheScreamingEagles · 7:45AM

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Like previous years I am not entering to give other PBers a chance of winning.
And, like previous years, Leon isn’t entering to give other PBers a chance to come last?

Indeed.

ydoethur · 7:46AM

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Like previous years I am not entering to give other PBers a chance of winning.
And, like previous years, Leon isn’t entering to give other PBers a chance to come last?

Clearly a scholar and a gentleman.

What three words could we make of that?

IanB2 · 7:47AM

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.

Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?

nico67 · 7:49AM

WhisperingOracle said:
This Chagos business is the definitive proof that Farage is up to his ears with Trump. It justifies the continued engagement with Trump for a UK audience, using the key Reform talking point of Starmerr's surrenders on Chagos compared to Trump.
Nigel tweets on it, then Trump posts it.

I see Farage is back to fellating Trump .

Scott_xP · 7:49AM

@gtconway.bsky.social‬

You have to admit these letters from Trump to foreign governments would actually seem less bizarre if they had been written in crayon

ydoethur · 7:49AM

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?

I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.

ydoethur · 7:50AM

nico67 said:

WhisperingOracle said:
This Chagos business is the definitive proof that Farage is up to his ears with Trump. It justifies the continued engagement with Trump for a UK audience, using the key Reform talking point of Starmerr's surrenders on Chagos compared to Trump.
Nigel tweets on it, then Trump posts it.
I see Farage is back to fellating Trump .

He always was a sucker for right wing nut jobs.

IanB2 · 7:51AM

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.

So 5 points can’t possibly be the largest, and you’ve missed the target with that answer.

Still, don’t worry, since you cant follow the simple instructions to put a hashtag on your entry, it’s not valid, and you have the chance to try again…(hint: the correct answer may well indeed be Reform by 10).

Scott_xP · 7:51AM

@nvondarza.bsky.social‬

Good diplomatic reasons for Europeans to try to appeal for calm and work it out behind the scenes with the US.

But just this morning Trump posted pictures of him putting the flag on Greenland, and presenting his conquests of Greenland and Canada to European leaders.

WhisperingOracle · 7:52AM

Braverman, Rosindell, Jenrick and Fatage will soon be being asked questions about why their party is up to its ears witn a man who wants to take over Greenland and Canada, and join various dictators in a Board of Peace.
Not quite the desired-for outcome.

TheScreamingEagles · 7:52AM

The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701

Nigelb · 7:53AM

Scott_xP said:
@gtconway.bsky.social‬

You have to admit these letters from Trump to foreign governments would actually seem less bizarre if they had been written in crayon

Posting their private messages to him was a very clear message of his own, though.

So much for "behind the scenes".

Casino_Royale · 7:53AM

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.

I expect Reform are pretty sticky at about 20% or so, but not necessarily above it.

ydoethur · 7:55AM

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.
I expect Reform are pretty sticky at about 20% or so, but not necessarily above it.

If they get Braverman as well, that could change very rapidly indeed.

Could be down to about 15% in short order.

ydoethur · 7:57AM

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.
So 5 points can’t possibly be the largest, and you’ve missed the target with that answer.

Still, don’t worry, since you cant follow the simple instructions to put a hashtag on your entry, it’s not valid, and you have the chance to try again…(hint: the correct answer may well indeed be Reform by 10).

Maybe read the last line before you accuse others of missing simple things?

Casino_Royale · 7:57AM

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.
I expect Reform are pretty sticky at about 20% or so, but not necessarily above it.
If they get Braverman as well, that could change very rapidly indeed.

Could be down to about 15% in short order.

My working assumption is that she now goes.

carnforth · 7:59AM

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 10

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 5

Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 70.

Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 30.

UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14% (i.e it has already happened.)

Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 15%

Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? Ten.

The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer.

Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No.

UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £125bn

UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.2%

Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France.

#competition

Foxy · 7:59AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701

On the contrary Jenricks defection seems to have benefited Polanski.

ydoethur · 8:00AM

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.
I expect Reform are pretty sticky at about 20% or so, but not necessarily above it.
If they get Braverman as well, that could change very rapidly indeed.

Could be down to about 15% in short order.
My working assumption is that she now goes.

So in order to make sure Reform are completely tainted by the last government and crater spectacularly in the polls, there's just one more scalp for Farage to take.

Now is her time.

Lettuce see.

LostPassword · 8:01AM

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?

Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.

Stuartinromford · 8:02AM

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
I took it to mean 'from now on', but if you're right it would be the Fukkers by 10 points. That's a gap I expect to plunge rapidly from here on in.
I expect Reform are pretty sticky at about 20% or so, but not necessarily above it.
If they get Braverman as well, that could change very rapidly indeed.

Could be down to about 15% in short order.
My working assumption is that she now goes.

Despite presumably pinky-promising Kemi last night that she wouldn't defect.

On one hand, Conservative Gain, and definitely Conservative Opportunity, but at some point all the rats leaving makes the ship look like it's sinking.

Any news on when the Labour defector is being unveiled?

Cicero · 8:03AM

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:
@gtconway.bsky.social‬

You have to admit these letters from Trump to foreign governments would actually seem less bizarre if they had been written in crayon
Posting their private messages to him was a very clear message of his own, though.

So much for "behind the scenes".

Patience with Trump is running out- it's a big message to the rest of America.

Foxy · 8:06AM

LostPassword said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.

Yes, starting that question after Feb 1st might be more interesting.

Farage's closeness to Trump and Putin is not going to benefit him this year.

bondegezou · 8:06AM

Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?

LostPassword · 8:08AM

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701
On the contrary Jenricks defection seems to have benefited Polanski.

At the time of Badenoch's conference speech some PBers were positive in praise and wondered whether she had turned a corner.

This was roundly mocked by other PBers when the first post-conference opinion polls were published.

If we now take a step back and look at the big picture we can see that there was a turning point in Tory fortunes at that time. The subjective judgement was correct. The over-analysis of the first handful of opinion polls was wrong.

Frustrating as it is we just have to wait, and the impact of the defections will be muddled by any reaction to Greenland, etc, too.

Penddu2 · 8:08AM

For question #4 - the only correct answer is zero. There will in fact be zero AMs of any party. The correct term is MS (Member of Senedd) or AS (Aelod Y Senedd).

WhisperingOracle · 8:08AM

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?

Farage posted on Chagos in his first response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland , just two.days ago. Joined at the hip, seemingly.

ydoethur · 8:09AM

Foxy said:

LostPassword said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.
Yes, starting that question after Feb 1st might be more interesting.

Farage's closeness to Trump and Putin is not going to benefit him this year.

It would be good to think you're right. But it's easy to get trapped into thinking that because it's obvious that his allies are insane, criminal and above all completely incompetent that he will be tainted by association. Even after 1949 something like 40% of Germans under 40 thought the solution to West Germany's problems was a strong government led by a dictator even though they had pretty glaring evidence to the contrary and not just from Hitler.

Big_G_NorthWales · 8:10AM

Good morning

Interesting

https://x.com/i/status/2013518047097540861

Nigelb · 8:11AM

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.

And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

ydoethur · 8:15AM

Penddu2 said:
For question #4 - the only correct answer is zero. There will in fact be zero AMs of any party. The correct term is MS (Member of Senedd) or AS (Aelod Y Senedd).

Oddly, not legally correct:

4Members to be known as Members of the Senedd
In section 1 of the 2006 Act, after subsection (2) insert—
“(2A)Members of the Senedd are to be known by that name or as Aelodau o’r Senedd.”

Why they should be known as 'the members from the Parliament' I have no idea, as it seems ludicrous, but I am guessing it's because whoever drafted it just typed it through Google translate and didn't understand Welsh grammar.

To be honest I would say 'Aelod Senedd' as I don't the the 'y' adds much in context. But there we are.

To be further honest, in English I still call it the Welsh Assembly anyway. Hard to break the habit. They should just have called it Y Senedd (which after all is not hard to learn or pronounce) with members called AS and everyone would then have been happy except those people desperate for us to replace the Lords with a 'Senate' and those people who hate Welsh.

Big_G_NorthWales · 8:15AM

Rosindell blames Chagos deal for defection to reform
Farage sounds off about Chagos deal
Trump goes ballistic about Chagos deal

It is glaringly obvious Farage is a very real danger to our country

* I should say I do not agree with the Chagos deal but that is not the point

Penddu2 · 8:18AM

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 7

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 4

Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 58

Number of AMs (MSs !!!) won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 41

UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14%

Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 19%

Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 9

The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer.

Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No.

UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £136bn

UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.3%

Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France (who will gift it to Donad Trump)

#competition

Foxy · 8:20AM

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rosindell blames Chagos deal for defection to reform
Farage sounds off about Chagos deal
Trump goes ballistic about Chagos deal

It is glaringly obvious Farage is a very real danger to our country

* I should say I do not agree with the Chagos deal but that is not the point

The Chagos deal is a poor one but the whole point of the payment is to secure Diego Garcia for the Americans at our expense (presumably for a quid pro quo on Trident etc).

That looks a very good deal for no one but America.

WhisperingOracle · 8:20AM

Farage is now praising Trump for "vetoing" the Chagos deal. He's essentially acting like a viceroy for a country he believes Trump already runs.

LostPassword · 8:20AM

Given that the US is no longer a reliable British ally, why should Britain care overmuch what happens to the Chagos islands? It's not much use to the British military as a base.

Obviously the deal is still unfair towards the islanders themselves, but the strategic concerns have changed now.

Foxy · 8:21AM

WhisperingOracle said:
Farage is now praising Trum for "vetoing" the Chagos deal. He's acting like a viceroy for a country he believes Trump already runs.

Quisling is the word, and very apposite considering the Scandanavian aspect of all this.

nico67 · 8:21AM

WhisperingOracle said:
Farage is now praising Trump for "vetoing" the Chagos deal. He's acting like a viceroy for a country he believes Trump already runs.

The media have been useless at holding Farage to account .

MarqueeMark · 8:22AM

# Competition

1. Dems to gain net +32 (Rep Independent and Hispanic vote collapses)

2. Dems to gain net +4

3. 60 SNP

4. 27 PC ASs

5. Reform 14% lead

6. Labour 17%

7. 0 Reform MPs (Farage takes his ball and goes to America for the money...or Moscow. Yes it's a long shot, but...)

8. Starmer - can't change our war-time leader...

9. No.

10. £166.3 bn (although God knows who will lend it to us...)

11. -1.6%

12. Scotland, as the Mexican crowd get behind them against Brazil in the final...

Morris_Dancer · 8:22AM

In common with past years I'm not going to read others' entries so many of mine may be waaaaay off.

Thanks for running this, Mr. Pointer, and for the prize, Mr. Eagles.

1) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +50
2) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +7
3) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 45
4) Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 24
5) UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Conservative, 12 points.
6) Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 18%
7) Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 7
8) The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Sir Keir Starmer
9) Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
10) UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145.2bn
11) UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.4%
12) Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France

#competition

MarqueeMark · 8:24AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701

Or...

Jenrick defection sees LibDems down by 2, Greens up by 3...

Scott_xP · 8:25AM

@Trinhnomics

Welcome to Davos Mr. Trump, how do you like those US Treasury steepening?

Theuniondivvie · 8:29AM

Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.

Scott_xP · 8:29AM

@AgnesCPoirier

« I am far more frightened by our own cowardice than by their threats »
@XavierGorce

https://x.com/AgnesCPoirier/status/2013526286820405728?s=20

kle4 · 8:30AM

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 4

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 2

Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 63

Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 28

UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 11%

Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17%

Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 13

The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer.

Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No.

UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £154.7bn

UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.0%

Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France.

#competition

Roger · 8:33AM

carnforth said:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 10

Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 5

Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 70.

Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 30.

UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14% (i.e it has already happened.)

Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 15%

Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? Ten.

The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer.

Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No.

UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £125bn

UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.2%

Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France.

#competition

Sounds about right. I thought I'd look for someone who seems to know what they're doing and just change one or two which look wild. The wild one is Reform on 10. If they don't collapse they should have passed 10 by next week.

kle4 · 8:35AM

Nigelb said:

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

He didn't serm concerned when people were begging for a veto of the deal from him a year ago.

kle4 · 8:38AM

Theuniondivvie said:
Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.

Dignity must be sacrificed sometimes but there are limits. Being unable to say even that much means someone is a full on Trump worshipper, it's not pragmatic calculation to get on your knees and lick his bare feet.

Scott_xP · 8:39AM

Nigelb said:
Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

Well, he's right about that. In this case the RIGHT THING is to tell him to fuck as far away off as possible, then fuck off some more.

Scott_xP · 8:41AM

@Simon_Nixon

Clever intervention by Trump. Not only undermines Starmer but throws an irresistible bone to the UK hard right in politics and the media, giving them a reason to side with an aggressive foreign authoritarian, just as they did in the 1930s…

Sandpit · 8:43AM

Well done Ben for doing this competition again.

Last year I forgot to enter, will try and do so in 2026 so no-one else has to fight for the wooden spoon.

Initial thoughts:
US elections: not as many changes as predicted by most. The House is properly Gerrymandered now, the Democrats are still very unpopular and are doubling down on stuff like gender and illegal immigration that cost them last year. House probably as close as now, but the other way, a couple of Senate seats.

Devolved elections: SNP probably down and Plaid probably up, both swings against incumbency.

Can’t see past Reform staying in the lead in the polls, but the widest margin to be early and the Tories to close the gap by the end of the year.

Lab vote share perhaps 25% if they’re lucky

Reform MPs perhaps up half a dozen.

PM will still be Starmer. The mechanism really isn’t there, and a serious challenger wants to be in the honeymoon period at the next election. Perhaps a 2027 challenge.

Burnham MP: Nope. No mechanism except perhaps an unexpected death in a very safe seat. He’s MoM until 2028.

Borrowing. To get worse, £150bn

Growth: flat if we’re lucky.

World Cup: Sod it, England. (If there’s not a UEFA boycott). The song “Three Lions”, with the lyric “30 years of hurt”, is now 30 years old!

Nigelb · 8:44AM

Foxy said:

WhisperingOracle said:
Farage is now praising Trum for "vetoing" the Chagos deal. He's acting like a viceroy for a country he believes Trump already runs.
Quisling is the word, and very apposite considering the Scandanavian aspect of all this.

For now, he's just a mouthpiece.

Scott_xP · 8:45AM

Fuck this guy. Again.

@annmarie

Bessent compares the consternation about Greenland to Liberation Day. “This is the same kind of hysteria that we heard on April 2. There was a panic. And what I’m urging everyone here to do is sit back, take a deep breath & let things play out.”

Remember: Trump thinks Bessent “soothes the markets,” while he has admitted to disturbing them.

Nigelb · 8:46AM

Theuniondivvie said:
Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.

He's also a mouthpiece; in this case, Starmer's.
But it was indeed a pathetic performance.

ydoethur · 8:47AM

MarqueeMark said:
# Competition

1. Dems to gain net +32 (Rep Independent and Hispanic vote collapses)

2. Dems to gain net +4

3. 60 SNP

4. 27 PC ASs

5. Reform 14% lead

6. Labour 17%

7. 0 Reform MPs (Farage takes his ball and goes to America for the money...or Moscow. Yes it's a long shot, but...)

8. Starmer - can't change our war-time leader...

9. No.

10. £166.3 bn (although God knows who will lend it to us...)

11. -1.6%

12. Scotland, as the Mexican crowd get behind them against Brazil in the final...

For the edification of the English:

The plural of 'AS' would be 'AauS' (Aelodau'r Senedd).

MarqueeMark · 8:47AM

For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.

ydoethur · 8:49AM

MarqueeMark said:
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.

I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?

MarqueeMark · 8:49AM

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?

Nope. Going ahead...

Nigelb · 8:49AM

I hope we can all now agree Ukraine cannot reasonably be expected to cede territory in exchange for whatever meaningless security guarantees the mentally unfit president of the US is willing to offer.
https://x.com/Daractenus/status/2013507601049207059

MarqueeMark · 8:50AM

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:
# Competition

1. Dems to gain net +32 (Rep Independent and Hispanic vote collapses)

2. Dems to gain net +4

3. 60 SNP

4. 27 PC ASs

5. Reform 14% lead

6. Labour 17%

7. 0 Reform MPs (Farage takes his ball and goes to America for the money...or Moscow. Yes it's a long shot, but...)

8. Starmer - can't change our war-time leader...

9. No.

10. £166.3 bn (although God knows who will lend it to us...)

11. -1.6%

12. Scotland, as the Mexican crowd get behind them against Brazil in the final...

For the edification of the English:

The plural of 'AS' would be 'AauS' (Aelodau'r Senedd).

My nod to the Welsh language only goes so far...

ydoethur · 8:51AM

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:
# Competition

1. Dems to gain net +32 (Rep Independent and Hispanic vote collapses)

2. Dems to gain net +4

3. 60 SNP

4. 27 PC ASs

5. Reform 14% lead

6. Labour 17%

7. 0 Reform MPs (Farage takes his ball and goes to America for the money...or Moscow. Yes it's a long shot, but...)

8. Starmer - can't change our war-time leader...

9. No.

10. £166.3 bn (although God knows who will lend it to us...)

11. -1.6%

12. Scotland, as the Mexican crowd get behind them against Brazil in the final...

For the edification of the English:

The plural of 'AS' would be 'AauS' (Aelodau'r Senedd).
My nod to the Welsh language only goes so far...

You prefer instead to Sais the moment?

(Another truly awesome Welsh pun that only about three people will get.)

Sandpit · 8:52AM

LostPassword said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
OOPS, posted in the wrong thread.

Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:

1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough)
2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia)
3) Let's go with 55
4) 32
5) The Tories by five points
6) 22%
7) 4
8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there)
9) No (likewise)
10) £165 billion
11) -0.5%
12) USA as nobody else will turn up.

Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.

If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.

That Q5 answer could well be decided already.

Nigelb · 8:53AM

Nigelb said:

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

May last year.

“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”

“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”

“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”

“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”

(Rubio)

algarkirk · 8:55AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701

Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!

YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.

If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.

WhisperingOracle · 8:55AM

A key question is how many Reform voters will be turned off by Farage's viceroy role for Trump, now that Trump's presidency appears to.be changing. It could be that Reform will just stick in the early to mid-20s per cent, for now.

MoonRabbit · 8:55AM

viewcode said:
@MoonRabbit , you are PB's ambassador to Con home, what do you think of the article below?

https://conservativehome.com/2026/01/19/jenricks-opponents-have-no-answers-and-his-departure-has-encouraged-a-belief-that-they-dont-need-them/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

It’s a completely muddled article. It attacks Badenoch for being policy light and an empty vessel on strong economic idea’s, and attacks centre ground One Nation Toryism to get the crowd cheering

“Absolutely nailed it. I still don't necessarily have faith in Reform, but the one nation Tories celebrating this as an opportunity are the reason I can't bring myself to vote Tory.”

No. The sacking of Jenrick is a very real opportunity for One Nation Conservatism. We just remove Badenoch now and get our party and electability back.

I have spent time on ConHome over the weekend. Without doubt over half the contributors to comments are not Con Members or even Con voters. It’s sometimes like Reform Home, how they are certainly the most cocky, self sure and aggressive ones. It sums up how the right are neatly split and fighting each other, that will be bad for elections.

Without doubt in my mind, the rally round Badenoch over the Jenrick defection is built on the quicksand that ultimately, politically and electorally, you must keep them in tent pissing out, not throw them out. Lady Thatcher sat in cabinets surrounded by One Nation Conservatives, never never never rejoiced at throwing them out, or was celebrated for making them “someone else’s problem now.”

AnneJGP · 8:56AM

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
He didn't serm concerned when people were begging for a veto of the deal from him a year ago.

That was then, this is now.

Good morning, everybody. I'm not knowledgeable enough about some of those topics even to make random guesses.

Stuartinromford · 8:56AM

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.

“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”

“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”

“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”

“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”

(Rubio)

Like Trump cares what he said last May.

Or even remembers.

AnneJGP · 8:58AM

Theuniondivvie said:
Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.

Why would the UK want to donate $1billion to Mr Trump’s personal bank account?

FeersumEnjineeya · 9:00AM

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rosindell blames Chagos deal for defection to reform
Farage sounds off about Chagos deal
Trump goes ballistic about Chagos deal

It is glaringly obvious Farage is a very real danger to our country

* I should say I do not agree with the Chagos deal but that is not the point
The Chagos deal is a poor one but the whole point of the payment is to secure Diego Garcia for the Americans at our expense (presumably for a quid pro quo on Trident etc).

That looks a very good deal for no one but America.

It might possibly have been justifiable in the days when we could trust the US to act in our interests as well as their own, but those days are gone.

ydoethur · 9:00AM

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?

Although on checking I find that's been un tossed by the totally noble and impartial Supreme Court. So it's essentially a wash.

Plus Ohio and North Carolina have gerrymanders of their own which are negative for the Dems.

Sandpit · 9:00AM

Interesting that almost no-one so far thinks that growth or deficit will be better than 2025.

Andy_JS · 9:01AM

Trump is right about the Chagos and right about the embassy.

ydoethur · 9:01AM

Sandpit said:
Interesting that almost no-one so far thinks that growth or deficit will be better than 2025.

We'll be damn lucky if Mushroom Shaped's insanity doesn't cause a major recession, which will cause the deficit to balloon.

Sandpit · 9:02AM

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:

WhisperingOracle said:

bondegezou said:
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.

“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”

“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”

“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”

“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”

(Rubio)

Are Trump and Rubio still going to Davos?

Some enterprising journalist needs to bring that quote up.

(Personally I still think it’s a crap deal)

Scott_xP · 9:04AM

@dizzy_thinks

Interest parallels between George III and @realDonaldTrump. Both protectionists on trade, both obsessed with executive control, both sent out officers to harass people and of course both stark raving mad.

glw · 9:04AM

Well Trump's already attacked the UK, France, and Norway and it's only just past 9 o'clock.

Roger · 9:05AM

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.

YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),

Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701

Things are looking pretty good for Labour at the moment. The big question which probably wont be answered until late next year is which Party they will be facing. Tories or Reform or possibly a bit of each though that looks unlikely.

algarkirk · 9:06AM

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.
He's also a mouthpiece; in this case, Starmer's.
But it was indeed a pathetic performance.

The government policy of only speaking in public in any way directly against Trump and Trumpism and what passes for USA policy when it is essential to make it clear that we oppose it (Greenland is not to be invaded and is a matter for Greenland/Denmark; the new tariffs are wrong), is rational even though it's creepy and horrible.

And it might be a relief when it has to end, as it must. Though at that point we might find that stuff is worse.

(If Greenland is strategically essential in the North Atlantic, I wonder how Trumpism might describe parts of the UK and Ireland, or any part of it?)

Scott_xP · 9:06AM

@david-k-clark.bsky.social‬

There should be a strict rule in the Chagos Islands debate that if you can’t point to them on a map, you shouldn’t be allowed to express an opinion about them.

Battlebus · 9:07AM

Andy_JS said:
Trump is right about the Chagos and right about the embassy.

Do we care?

Sunil_Prasannan · 9:07AM

Scott_xP said:
@dizzy_thinks

Interest parallels between George III and @realDonaldTrump. Both protectionists on trade, both obsessed with executive control, both sent out officers to harass people and of course both stark raving mad.

"FAKE NEWS from the RADICAL LEFT LUNATICS!"

Scott_xP · 9:07AM

@MichaelLCrick

The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?

https://x.com/MichaelLCrick/status/2013373108145545515?s=20

Sandpit · 9:08AM

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...

Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?

https://x.com/jonathanturley/status/2013235358255763830

carnforth · 9:08AM

Sandpit said:
Interesting that almost no-one so far thinks that growth or deficit will be better than 2025.

I said borrowing would be lower. Though that was based on Googling the borrowing prediction, and I may have done that wrong...

WhisperingOracle · 9:09AM

Battlebus said:

Andy_JS said:
Trump is right about the Chagos and right about the embassy.
Do we care?

Farage knows that his voters care, hence why the arrangement for Trump to say this.

Sunil_Prasannan · 9:09AM

Andy_JS said:
Trump is right about the Chagos and right about the embassy.

He supported the Chagos deal back in May.

algarkirk · 9:09AM

Sandpit said:
Interesting that almost no-one so far thinks that growth or deficit will be better than 2025.

We have all noticed that on debt, which follows directly from deficit though they pretend not to realise it) the government's policy is that it is too high and that the solution is to make it higher. This is unchanged since 2008.

PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com

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