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Sir Keir Starmer has some really poor allies and advisers – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,916
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It's getting cheaper to make the moulds but until recently they cost six figures to make each one. GW would spend £7m each year on new moulds and they have a back catalogue going back a couple of decades still in production - so that's more than £100m to duplicate the moulds for a separate production facility in the US.

    They have moulds for a couple of thousand different sets of models, though counting them is a bit complicated.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,916
    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It’s thin margins and moulds/tools representing £10ks of investment, not to mention the skills required to use them properly. Less of an issue if you’re GW, but if you’re GW you can just ship there.

    It’s WarGames Atlantic doing it.

    Well if they ship back and forth clearly both sides have the skill to not only use them but service and maintain them. They won’t just ship from factory A to factory B and run perfectly. They will have been packed for transport so will need stripping and reassembling.

    If they are the only set then it’s a massive risk if they go astray. Still I guess they must do risk mitigation on these things and deemed it not an issue.

    The investment in the tooling can be depreciated over the life of the product, several years. Paid upfront from the tooling budget but depreciated over several years.

    It seems mad to me like you say - why take the risk of shipping the mould across? I don't know how it makes financial sense compared to eating the tariff.

    But it would be likely a lot more expensive to make duplicate moulds for both sides of the Atlantic.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,989

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It’s thin margins and moulds/tools representing £10ks of investment, not to mention the skills required to use them properly. Less of an issue if you’re GW, but if you’re GW you can just ship there.

    It’s WarGames Atlantic doing it.

    Well if they ship back and forth clearly both sides have the skill to not only use them but service and maintain them. They won’t just ship from factory A to factory B and run perfectly. They will have been packed for transport so will need stripping and reassembling.

    If they are the only set then it’s a massive risk if they go astray. Still I guess they must do risk mitigation on these things and deemed it not an issue.

    The investment in the tooling can be depreciated over the life of the product, several years. Paid upfront from the tooling budget but depreciated over several years.

    Its a shame they moved away from spin moulding in metal. That is easy. You just spin up a set of masters and send them across the pond. Making up new production moulds is simple and cheap. Still the way the majority of figure manufacturers work (including me). I must admit I don't like plastics or the sorts of resins that Warlord make. Definitely metals for me still.
    What sort of cycle time would that be ? I’d guess it ideal for low volume batch production,

    I’ve never come across spin moulding in my career only in my ONC/HNC/HND years. I’ve sourced metal spun products but that’s different.

    Certainly with these figures they feel different in metal. A little bit more robust and substantive. But I guess plastic moulding has the advantage of being quick as a process for larger volume runs and less labour intensive.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,916

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    I understand they are looking at reopening it. And as I say they are planning on opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027.
    Where did you hear they are looking at that? They certainly aren't telling their investors about it.

    Warhammer World will be just an events space. Doesn't mean anything in manufacturing terms.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,916

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It’s thin margins and moulds/tools representing £10ks of investment, not to mention the skills required to use them properly. Less of an issue if you’re GW, but if you’re GW you can just ship there.

    It’s WarGames Atlantic doing it.

    Well if they ship back and forth clearly both sides have the skill to not only use them but service and maintain them. They won’t just ship from factory A to factory B and run perfectly. They will have been packed for transport so will need stripping and reassembling.

    If they are the only set then it’s a massive risk if they go astray. Still I guess they must do risk mitigation on these things and deemed it not an issue.

    The investment in the tooling can be depreciated over the life of the product, several years. Paid upfront from the tooling budget but depreciated over several years.

    Its a shame they moved away from spin moulding in metal. That is easy. You just spin up a set of masters and send them across the pond. Making up new production moulds is simple and cheap. Still the way the majority of figure manufacturers work (including me). I must admit I don't like plastics or the sorts of resins that Warlord make. Definitely metals for me still.
    I've found it's much easier to combine pieces from different models, chop them up and reassemble them in my own unique creations with plastic rather than metal, so I almost completely stick to plastic models these days - but I do like the metal models I already have a lot.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,020
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe we should ban social media for everyone, not just under 16s.

    Or maybe just 79-year-old semi-senile billionaire sociopaths?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 7,030
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe we should ban social media for everyone, not just under 16s.

    Or maybe just 79-year-old semi-senile billionaire sociopaths?
    Counter proposal: leave him ONLY his social media. Him and Elon screaming into the empty void forever.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,989

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It's getting cheaper to make the moulds but until recently they cost six figures to make each one. GW would spend £7m each year on new moulds and they have a back catalogue going back a couple of decades still in production - so that's more than £100m to duplicate the moulds for a separate production facility in the US.

    They have moulds for a couple of thousand different sets of models, though counting them is a bit complicated.
    Storing them and ensuring they are maintained too, from my experience.

    Surely they would only make duplicate tools for high running volume and as the tools had already been designed once the cost of making a second set would be less expensive than the first and they wouldn’t need to make them all, just the high runners.

    Also when they make new tools they could look to refurbish the old tools and transfer them. That’s what I did on a recent project where I sourced some new tools as the old were reaching end of life and we had a budget.

    A six figure sum to make a mould. I’ve sourced plenty of injection mould tools in my time. That’s the sort of cost I’d pay for complex interior trim that’s a substantial size with quite a few moving parts and a hot runner. What is involved ?

    Tooling really got less expensive in a few phases when it moved from the U.K. to Spain/Portugal then to Eastern Europe and then to the Far East.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,475
    I really hope Trump's health is ok, if anything happened to him right now MAGA might nuke the world in grief.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,129

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I actually think Greenlandschluss will be popular with DJT's base because it's owning the libs/EU, getting them out of NATO and Makes America Great Again.

    Plenty of people in the UK would get behind a similar project if we had the military and economic might to do it.

    Buying Greenland is popular with Republicans as the poll I showed earlier said (but not invading it), US voters overall though are opposed once Democrats and Independents are included
    Realistically speaking any US invasion of Greenland is going to be over as soon as anyone hears that it is happening, and so there's going to be nothing for US voters to oppose.

    Once the deed has been done I don't see many Republican voters being in favour of withdrawing with their tail between their legs.
    You would also have to occupy it and plenty of Greenlanders would be willing to form an armed resistance, perhaps even with arms supplied by the Danes and then the US bodybags would start.

    Democrats and Independents and therefore most Americans would be opposed anyway and there would certainly be enough Republicans in Congress willing to break lines to join them and impeach Trump and maybe even convict
    Armed resistance? The population of Greenland is about that of a small British town, roughly that of Canterbury (just the settlement proper, not even the wider district) so we’re not taking a huge number of potential Maquisards.
    So? It is a vast land to hide out in and take potshots at invading troops, blow up their infrastructure etc and then melt back into the icy tundra and igloos
    You can't really hide out in most of Greenland. It's a vast ice sheet 3km tall. It would be a bit like trying to fight a guerilla war on the surface of Mars.
    Trump can take it at will whenever he wants as resistance would be futile

    Never mind, John Swinney expects a majority SNP Holyrood in May and will demand a referendum on independence

    @HYUFD will have all his time taken up on his tank invasion of Scotland from Epping !!!!
    You are pathetic some times BigG, rant about Trump and would then let him walk all over you when it actually comes to it.

    If he did invade it before he was impeached and convicted by Congress Greenlanders would of course fight the invasion and he would also be at war with Denmark as it is Danish land.

    Swinney can expect what he wants, the UK government will refuse an indyref2 and he can do sod all about it legally as the UKSC affirmed (not that many polls give an SNP majority anyway)
    You have no idea what you are talking about re Greenland

    It is 9 times the size of the UK with the main population in Nuuk and yes I have been there

    If Trumps wants it no military action will stop him and your idea the Greenlanders would be a Dads Army is ludicous


    Trump not only has to take it and he would immediately be at war with Denmark if he tried, maybe the rest of Nato too, he then has to occupy it with a hostile population who would go out of their way to destroy US infrastructure and kill US troops given the chance.

    Plus he would likely be facing impeachment by Congress at home
    And meanwhile US bases across Europe are put in a rather vulnerable position.
    Shut Menwith Hill and Lakenheath tomorrow. They'll need Mildenhall to evacuate every other base in Europe. Frankly, even as a long run Atlanticist... fuck em.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 943
    kle4 said:

    I am shocked - shocked - that some people on a political message board are also so knowledgable about Warhammer40k

    I now understand why you normies hate it when the train discussion happens. Cause I'm just wanting to scream NERDS and give people wedgies.

    Can we not discuss class 37s instead?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,989
    I do really love the work of Pink Floyd, but Roger Waters is such a tool.

    No wonder Dave Gilmour has little time for him.

    https://x.com/nazaninnour/status/2012370808232939751?s=61
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,951
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    trump to Europe: "Give US Greenland or I will make Americans pay more for your goods".

    He still seems to think we pay the tariffs rather than the importer.
    FTSE100 company and exporter of goods manufactured in Britain to the US, Games Workshop, has absorbed 100% of the cost of tariffs charged on their exports to the US. That represents 2% off their profit margin, averaged over their global sales.

    That's less profit returned to investors in dividends, less tax paid to the Exchequer.

    The same is true for lots of companies selling goods to the US.
    It will depend on the inco terms. Unless DDP then importer pays all duties and tariffs. Most trades to US or out of US, for goods (not services) aren’t DDP.

    A commercial decision to reduce prices to offset the tariffs still means the tariff gets paid by the importer (caveat above)

    There is also the currency difference to be considered.

    Games Workshop stock price is up by over 40% last 12 months. They have had a record year. Warhammer seems popular. If they grow their volume then they can easily make up any lost profit.
    GW are opening a Warhammer World in the US in 2027 and already have some of their production over there for the US market. Their exposure to tariffs will be very limited.
    They shut down their US production ages ago.

    Wargames Atlantic are going to the trouble of shipping moulds back and forth across the Atlantic to do manufacturing on both sides, which I thought was a mad thing no-one would ever do, so perhaps GW will consider it in the future, but they aren't doing it now.
    Why ship moulds back and forth ? Why not just make some new ones for local production or if they have multiple sets just transfer some ?

    They cannot be their only set. What if they went astray. They’d be screwed.

    Also, depending on the size of the moulds, the cost of shipping will be expensive too.
    It’s thin margins and moulds/tools representing £10ks of investment, not to mention the skills required to use them properly. Less of an issue if you’re GW, but if you’re GW you can just ship there.

    It’s WarGames Atlantic doing it.

    Well if they ship back and forth clearly both sides have the skill to not only use them but service and maintain them. They won’t just ship from factory A to factory B and run perfectly. They will have been packed for transport so will need stripping and reassembling.

    If they are the only set then it’s a massive risk if they go astray. Still I guess they must do risk mitigation on these things and deemed it not an issue.

    The investment in the tooling can be depreciated over the life of the product, several years. Paid upfront from the tooling budget but depreciated over several years.

    Its a shame they moved away from spin moulding in metal. That is easy. You just spin up a set of masters and send them across the pond. Making up new production moulds is simple and cheap. Still the way the majority of figure manufacturers work (including me). I must admit I don't like plastics or the sorts of resins that Warlord make. Definitely metals for me still.
    What sort of cycle time would that be ? I’d guess it ideal for low volume batch production,

    I’ve never come across spin moulding in my career only in my ONC/HNC/HND years. I’ve sourced metal spun products but that’s different.

    Certainly with these figures they feel different in metal. A little bit more robust and substantive. But I guess plastic moulding has the advantage of being quick as a process for larger volume runs and less labour intensive.
    You can spin 30 figures in an 11" vulcanised mould in about 2 minutes. It is farly labour intensive but with the exception of GW, Warlord and Atlantic, most companies including Foundry still produce metal miniatures by spin casting. I have a spin casting machine in my shed.

    The problem with spin casting is that most model designers for GW work in 3-ups these days rather than to scale. The conversion to 35mm is much easier when you are injection moulding for plastic rather than metal spin moulding.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,925
    Fun fact for Warhammer fans:

    Ian Livingston, who founded Games Workshop and did the Fighting Fantasy books with Steve Jackson, used to have a pub band called the Jackson Four and used to do terrible (sorry Ian) gigs to tiny audiences in pubs in the Richmond area.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,926
    Nice ‘n early for today’s Rawnsley:

    It is going to be a merciless grapple for supremacy on the right. That is the conclusion I draw from the outpourings of bitterness and bile triggered by the rattery of Robert Jenrick.

    “He’s the ultimate careerist and saw his chances of succeeding Badenoch slipping away,” remarks one senior Tory, offering the most widely accepted explanation for his defection. “I’ve put aside my personal ambition,” is the most risibly untrue thing he said last Thursday.

    Both his old party and his new one believe they have gained from these events. Mr Farage is calculating that accepting Tories who served in the last government is a price worth paying to compensate for Reform’s glaring lack of ministerial experience, even if their track record is one which he routinely lambasts as a litany of lies and incompetence. Mrs Badenoch’s generally admired handling of the episode has added a dab of lustre to her leadership.

    Reform, 10 points ahead of the Tories, reckons it is still in the box seat and expects its claim to be the principal party of opposition to be vindicated with handsome gains in the May elections. Neither the blue corner nor the turquoise one think they have any incentive to parley. “Never!” spits one senior Tory MP. “They’re out to destroy us.” There’s no deal to be done when the fear and loathing is so pronounced. Forget any notions of “uniting the right”. It is going to be mortal combat.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,926
    Meanwhile some light relief this morning:

    US bobsleigh team’s farcical run becomes perfect metaphor amid Greenland threats

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/us-bobsleigh-teams-farcical-run-becomes-perfect-metaphor-amid-greenland-threats-402210/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,406
    Good morning, everyone.

    I see the moron has decided to place tariffs on allies who don't agree he can unilaterally annex their territory.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,747
    IanB2 said:

    Nice ‘n early for today’s Rawnsley:

    It is going to be a merciless grapple for supremacy on the right. That is the conclusion I draw from the outpourings of bitterness and bile triggered by the rattery of Robert Jenrick.

    “He’s the ultimate careerist and saw his chances of succeeding Badenoch slipping away,” remarks one senior Tory, offering the most widely accepted explanation for his defection. “I’ve put aside my personal ambition,” is the most risibly untrue thing he said last Thursday.

    Both his old party and his new one believe they have gained from these events. Mr Farage is calculating that accepting Tories who served in the last government is a price worth paying to compensate for Reform’s glaring lack of ministerial experience, even if their track record is one which he routinely lambasts as a litany of lies and incompetence. Mrs Badenoch’s generally admired handling of the episode has added a dab of lustre to her leadership.

    Reform, 10 points ahead of the Tories, reckons it is still in the box seat and expects its claim to be the principal party of opposition to be vindicated with handsome gains in the May elections. Neither the blue corner nor the turquoise one think they have any incentive to parley. “Never!” spits one senior Tory MP. “They’re out to destroy us.” There’s no deal to be done when the fear and loathing is so pronounced. Forget any notions of “uniting the right”. It is going to be mortal combat.

    Is the unnamed senior Tory right though? Was it that Jenrick saw his chance of succeeding Kemi slipping away? On Friday morning Jenrick was around 6/4 to be next Conservative leader; any price the rest. Kemi's own stock had risen slightly but Jenrick remained the strong favourite.

    Surely the significance is that he saw the Conservatives' chance at the next election slipping away so his route back to power is via Reform and to Number 10 through replacing Nigel Farage.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,926

    IanB2 said:

    Nice ‘n early for today’s Rawnsley:

    It is going to be a merciless grapple for supremacy on the right. That is the conclusion I draw from the outpourings of bitterness and bile triggered by the rattery of Robert Jenrick.

    “He’s the ultimate careerist and saw his chances of succeeding Badenoch slipping away,” remarks one senior Tory, offering the most widely accepted explanation for his defection. “I’ve put aside my personal ambition,” is the most risibly untrue thing he said last Thursday.

    Both his old party and his new one believe they have gained from these events. Mr Farage is calculating that accepting Tories who served in the last government is a price worth paying to compensate for Reform’s glaring lack of ministerial experience, even if their track record is one which he routinely lambasts as a litany of lies and incompetence. Mrs Badenoch’s generally admired handling of the episode has added a dab of lustre to her leadership.

    Reform, 10 points ahead of the Tories, reckons it is still in the box seat and expects its claim to be the principal party of opposition to be vindicated with handsome gains in the May elections. Neither the blue corner nor the turquoise one think they have any incentive to parley. “Never!” spits one senior Tory MP. “They’re out to destroy us.” There’s no deal to be done when the fear and loathing is so pronounced. Forget any notions of “uniting the right”. It is going to be mortal combat.

    Is the unnamed senior Tory right though? Was it that Jenrick saw his chance of succeeding Kemi slipping away? On Friday morning Jenrick was around 6/4 to be next Conservative leader; any price the rest. Kemi's own stock had risen slightly but Jenrick remained the strong favourite.

    Surely the significance is that he saw the Conservatives' chance at the next election slipping away so his route back to power is via Reform and to Number 10 through replacing Nigel Farage.
    Same difference, if the point is personal ambition, surely?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,747
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nice ‘n early for today’s Rawnsley:

    It is going to be a merciless grapple for supremacy on the right. That is the conclusion I draw from the outpourings of bitterness and bile triggered by the rattery of Robert Jenrick.

    “He’s the ultimate careerist and saw his chances of succeeding Badenoch slipping away,” remarks one senior Tory, offering the most widely accepted explanation for his defection. “I’ve put aside my personal ambition,” is the most risibly untrue thing he said last Thursday.

    Both his old party and his new one believe they have gained from these events. Mr Farage is calculating that accepting Tories who served in the last government is a price worth paying to compensate for Reform’s glaring lack of ministerial experience, even if their track record is one which he routinely lambasts as a litany of lies and incompetence. Mrs Badenoch’s generally admired handling of the episode has added a dab of lustre to her leadership.

    Reform, 10 points ahead of the Tories, reckons it is still in the box seat and expects its claim to be the principal party of opposition to be vindicated with handsome gains in the May elections. Neither the blue corner nor the turquoise one think they have any incentive to parley. “Never!” spits one senior Tory MP. “They’re out to destroy us.” There’s no deal to be done when the fear and loathing is so pronounced. Forget any notions of “uniting the right”. It is going to be mortal combat.

    Is the unnamed senior Tory right though? Was it that Jenrick saw his chance of succeeding Kemi slipping away? On Friday morning Jenrick was around 6/4 to be next Conservative leader; any price the rest. Kemi's own stock had risen slightly but Jenrick remained the strong favourite.

    Surely the significance is that he saw the Conservatives' chance at the next election slipping away so his route back to power is via Reform and to Number 10 through replacing Nigel Farage.
    Same difference, if the point is personal ambition, surely?
    The point is he sees Reform winning the election and not the Conservatives.
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