I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There's something in the power of the brand argument. But it's nothing like vapes, which are inherently hazardous, even if less so than cigarettes. And which are definitely addictive.
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
It is a core LibDem belief that people don't vote for the party because they think the LibDems can't win wherever they're voting. If you solve that (e.g., with voting reform), the logic goes, people will rush to vote LibDem, way beyond the current 15% apparent ceiling.
It's partly about custom and habit. We are used to the LDs having a particular domain in about 100 seats and a particular demography and apart from that being a useful but powerless standby for by elections, and being harmless and decent. None of this smacks of the sheer ruthlessness required for being a serious government (Lab, Con, Ref??), nor does it taste of the power of novelty (Green, Reform).
Contrast LDs and Reform and their image, LDs want power by changing the FPTP system. Reform (sadly) want and may get power by changing the voters' mind and belief.
Bemusing to me why Tories are celebrating today’s news. There is only so far they can squeeze the Lib Dems. And it casts quite a lot of doubt on their ability to rebuild their big tent and re-attract lost voters of the right, if they can’t keep the likes of Jenrick on board.
Reform are becoming a slop bucket of failed politicians and the former Tory cancer is metastisising elsewhere. Short term danger for long term health i guess
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
The evidence in Scotland and Wales is the opposite. The Lib Dems have done pretty badly in what were once considered redoubts of the old Liberal party, which have had quasi-PR systems.
I don't think that's Gardenwalker's point.
He's talking about what political pitch would most benefit them at the next election rather than which future electoral system they might thrive under.
In essence, I want to argue three things:
The political pitch should be optimised for the next election not to “get PR in a hung parliament”.
Getting PR is probably better achieved by optimising for the next parliament anyway.
Getting PR is no unlock of Lib Dem fortune, and I would argue would actually be negative as things stand.
It's really sad when a previously united and effective political entity, albeit one which many people vehemently disagree with, descends into factional infighting.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Bemusing to me why Tories are celebrating today’s news. There is only so far they can squeeze the Lib Dems. And it casts quite a lot of doubt on their ability to rebuild their big tent and re-attract lost voters of the right, if they can’t keep the likes of Jenrick on board.
It would have been much more impressive to have kept someone like Jenrick inside but moderate his messaging into something palatable - which was working until now. And there's no hope of picking up Lib Dems if Badenoch insists on things like "British ICE".
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
...probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S...
I dislike the "Abundance" agenda. It's basically Thatcherism for the metropolitan chattering classes and it mistakenly believes the nature of politics is distribution of wealth, not distribution of power. The best case for Abundance is that it makes the US working classes into well-fed and well-paid serfs whilst their Muskian overlords gallivant about in orbit. There are futures I want, and the plot of "Elysium" isn't one on them.
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
It is a core LibDem belief that people don't vote for the party because they think the LibDems can't win wherever they're voting. If you solve that (e.g., with voting reform), the logic goes, people will rush to vote LibDem, way beyond the current 15% apparent ceiling.
Holyrood 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 5.1% Senedd 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 4.3%
I rest my case m'lud.
Welsh Liberalism is almost extinct under PR indeed, theyll do well to get more than 1, possibly 2 members in May
The election in May is not a very P form or PR, with a high effective threshold.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
I would have thought that allowing under-18s to buy zero alcohol beer would have similar benefits. Apart from anything else it would reduce the pressure on them to get fake ID in order to buy alcoholic drinks, or chance their arm in the hope they won't get challenged (as I always used to do).
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
When I was a lad I loved having a can of shandy as it made me feel like I was grown up and drinking the same thing as my Dad.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
It is a core LibDem belief that people don't vote for the party because they think the LibDems can't win wherever they're voting. If you solve that (e.g., with voting reform), the logic goes, people will rush to vote LibDem, way beyond the current 15% apparent ceiling.
Holyrood 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 5.1% Senedd 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 4.3%
I rest my case m'lud.
Welsh Liberalism is almost extinct under PR indeed, theyll do well to get more than 1, possibly 2 members in May
The election in May is not a very P form or PR, with a high effective threshold.
True but theyve already been reduced to 1 (just barely) under the top up system. The point being a 'slightly more proportionate system' has done the opposite of helping them
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting model.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
One of the reasons that Britain is in a hole is that the country has had decades of politicians who prioritise the short-term over the long-term. If the Lib Dems are doing the same for the prospects of future success for their own party then it's probably for the good of the country that they remain in their niche.
Which is a shame, because there aren't too many promising options for political parties who might improve things.
To get out of the 100 seat niche, the Lib Dems need to be visible nationally. It's not a matter of messages or policies. They have plenty of them. But they don't have media support. And they don't have enough feet on the ground to deliver leaflets nationally or stakeboard nationally.
They urgently need to get their national social media act together with expertise and finance.
The first evidence of any real organisational ability. Hardly rocket science, but it's not nothing.
Kemi Badenoch's ambush of Robert Jenrick was carefully planned and deliberately timed for Nigel Farage's press conference
Rebecca Harris, the chief whip, called Jenrick to tell him he had been sacked while Farage was holding his press conference
At 11.06, moments after Jenrick slammed the phone down after protesting his innocence, Kemi Badenoch announced on X that she was sacking Jenrick with a pre-recorded video
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
It is a core LibDem belief that people don't vote for the party because they think the LibDems can't win wherever they're voting. If you solve that (e.g., with voting reform), the logic goes, people will rush to vote LibDem, way beyond the current 15% apparent ceiling.
Holyrood 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 5.1% Senedd 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 4.3%
I rest my case m'lud.
Welsh Liberalism is almost extinct under PR indeed, theyll do well to get more than 1, possibly 2 members in May
The election in May is not a very P form or PR, with a high effective threshold.
True but theyve already been reduced to 1 (just barely) under the top up system. The point being a 'slightly more proportionate system' has done the opposite of helping them
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
M.A.S.H.?
"M.A.S.H." is set in the Korean War, but it's kinda about the Vietnam War. That's what it is commenting on.
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
Agreed, though it probably requires a new leader for that.
At the moment they seem instead to be hoping for a hung parliament where they can make PR the price of their support.
Which is at least a reasonably principled position, since they have advocated for the system for a very long time.
This is bad strategy. PR itself doesn’t push them toward breakout from their permanent 10-15% box.
It is a core LibDem belief that people don't vote for the party because they think the LibDems can't win wherever they're voting. If you solve that (e.g., with voting reform), the logic goes, people will rush to vote LibDem, way beyond the current 15% apparent ceiling.
Holyrood 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 5.1% Senedd 2021, regional list vote, Lib Dems, 4.3%
I rest my case m'lud.
Welsh Liberalism is almost extinct under PR indeed, theyll do well to get more than 1, possibly 2 members in May
The election in May is not a very P form or PR, with a high effective threshold.
True but theyve already been reduced to 1 (just barely) under the top up system. The point being a 'slightly more proportionate system' has done the opposite of helping them
NEW: Councillor Keith Girling, chairman of Robert Jenrick’s local Conservative association in Newark, says: “Jenrick has let down his party, let down the activists who campaigned for him as a Conservative MP, and let down the voters of Newark who re-elected him in 2024.”
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
NEW: Councillor Keith Girling, chairman of Robert Jenrick’s local Conservative association in Newark, says: “Jenrick has let down his party, let down the activists who campaigned for him as a Conservative MP, and let down the voters of Newark who re-elected him in 2024.”
Ouch. Thats the guy who beat Reform in the by election in July last year (that Jenrick rocked up to share the limelight with at the count)
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
It's really sad when a previously united and effective political entity, albeit one which many people vehemently disagree with, descends into factional infighting.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
He’s probably in shock, after being accused of a crime he didn’t commit.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
He’s probably in shock, after being accused of a crime he didn’t commit.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
Hes waiting to see what the offer of Reform prospective Chancellor has been downgraded to now the cats out of the bag - warden of the Fag Packet or whatever
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
Hes waiting to see what the offer of Reform prospective Chancellor has been downgraded to now the cats out of the bag - warden of the Fag Packet or whatever
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
He’s probably in shock, after being accused of a crime he didn’t commit.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Give it time.
One thing that Vance and Trump don't want to give the situation is more time. They want "peace" now.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
The lack of statement from Jenrick is notable.
Hes waiting to see what the offer of Reform prospective Chancellor has been downgraded to now the cats out of the bag - warden of the Fag Packet or whatever
Groom of the stool is still available.
Zias other decorative Book End to pair with Prue Leiths boy
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There's something in the power of the brand argument. But it's nothing like vapes, which are inherently hazardous, even if less so than cigarettes. And which are definitely addictive.
Can vouch. They've got me off the fags (no small thing) but I'm a bigger nicotine addict than ever.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
But Jenrick has said nothing. Qui tacet consentire videtur, ubi loqui debuit ac potuit
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
Hes not a member of the Conservative Party anymore, he eont be ousting anyone
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
But Jenrick has said nothing. Qui tacet consentire videtur, ubi loqui debuit ac potuit
What can he say? Prove he wasnt planning to stab thsm all in the back by..... stabbing them all in the back?
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I tend to think that the Tory tent probably needs to be as broad as possible if they are going to both see off the challenge from Reform on their right, and make inroads on regaining voters towards the centre. It's always a difficult balancing act trying to do both at the same time, but I'm not convinced that wholesale losing its right-wing to Reform is going to help the Tories remain the leading party of the British Right.
Also, dismissing Jenrick as acting out of "personal ambition" is not really the blow against his credibility that Badenoch thinks it is. Everyone thinks that politicians are shameless careerists, what's new? What's new is that the Tory party is no longer the vehicle for a right-wing politician with ambition. Reform is. That's not a great look for the Tories, really. They risk becoming the party for right-wingers who are unwilling to bend the knee to Farage, and I'm not convinced that constitutes a majority on the right-wing, much as I might personally admire those right-wingers with more principle than ambition.
I agree with your first paragraph. I think it’s good for both the Tories and Labour to be broad tent parties in a 2-party system.
But we no longer have a 2-party system. Where once FPTP created sufficient pressure to ensure that, something has happened — social media? — and the two party system has broken. The Conservative Party (and ditto Labour) need a strategy for a multi-party world, or a sure fire way to get back to a 2-party world.
British politics broke into pieces before, and a duopoly was re-established. I wouldn't rule it out, though the parties that down that duopoly may be different.
This is why I think the current failure of the Lib Dems to break out of their niche is so consequential. There's a chance for them to be one of the parties of a future duopoly, but they seem blind to the opportunity.
What will tend to recreate a duopoly is the pain of repeated defeat. FPTP will give someone victory, and the other side will then conclude that they can compromise a bit more to get the government out.
For the LDs to seize that opportunity means breaking out of their “successful” model, one that works inside their comforting bubble.
It’s the innovator’s dilemma.
For a start, they’d need a coherent and compelling economic offer, probably something like the “Abundance” agenda essayed here in the U.S.
But that would mean pissing off some, probably noisy, current supporters.
I haven't read Abundance, but it's core message is one that is increasingly plausible. And it's the first sign that the centre and centre left is finding a philosophical backbone.
However, it is worth noting that in the US, the message of Ezra Klein is at least as hated by the Left of the Democrats as it is by the MAGA right.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
Jenrick too clever by half and met his match by Badenoch
Farage will be next on her list
Jenricks membership of the conservative party is over as confirmed by Holinrake just now
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
But Jenrick has said nothing. Qui tacet consentire videtur, ubi loqui debuit ac potuit
What can he say? Prove he wasnt planning to stab thsm all in the back by..... stabbing them all in the back?
He doesn't have to prove anything at this point. But he should really start with a denial.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
Jenrick too clever by half and met his match by Badenoch
Farage will be next on her list
Jenricks membership of the conservative party is over as confirmed by Holinrake just now
Nigel getting all the bargains on the Tory Vinted page
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
Nothing would ever satisfy doubters, which is part of Kemi's problem even if on balance of probabilities whatever she has is pretty clear.
Jenrick would be a fool of the highest order to have anything cast iron in writing.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There's something in the power of the brand argument. But it's nothing like vapes, which are inherently hazardous, even if less so than cigarettes. And which are definitely addictive.
Oh sure.
I think it is driven by a group of people seeing that alcohol interest/consumption is falling.
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
Its being suggested this has been in the works for a couple weeks at least. Jenrick had an ad out for a new parliamentary assistant, maybe an outgoing one was pissed off.......
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
Possibly because it was an extremely bloody civil war, during which both (Korean) sides committed appalling atrocities against each other's civilians, the allied commander ended up effectively sacked for risking nuclear war (MacArthur advocated for the use of nuclear weapons to render the Chinese border radioactively impassable), and it ended in stalemate, with dictatorships entrenched on both sides of the border, in the South for decades, and the north to this day.
The politics are complicated; it was neither a national humiliation like Vietnam, nor a glorious victory. The eventual outcome was probably a net positive eventually, but that wouldn't become clear for decades.
One of America's longest running TV shows - which lasted far longer than the war itself - was set there, of course. But didn't have a huge amount to do with the real world thing.
Making a full length feature film would be pretty expensive I think, and probably wouldn't earn back the investment. Restaging (for example) the battle of Chosin Reservoir would be an immense undertaking.
The third volume of Alan R. Millett's remarkable history of the war is out this summer. The trilogy is the first really comprehensive English language study of the whole conflict, and recommended if you're interested, and prepared to read a couple of thousand pages... (It's also very expensive, as it's an academic text rather than bestseller.)
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
Its being suggested this has been in the works for a couple weeks at least. Jenrick had an ad out for a new parliamentary assistant, maybe an outgoing one was pissed off.......
Or a Tory true believer - don't laugh, they fo exist!
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
Given it's been obvious from day 1 he would either do this or launch a leadership bid, she'd have been daft not to at least have a contingency plan.
The silence is probably cause Farage is now trying to abjure the deal he will have made with Jenrick. Hehehehhehehe
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Give it time.
One thing that Vance and Trump don't want to give the situation is more time. They want "peace" now.
Hard to argue with this.
Trump’s envoys work out a 20-point peace plan with President Zelenskyy. Putin rejects it out of hand and increases airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.
Trump then says Zelenskyy is the key impediment to peace.
Nadhim Zahawi and now Robert Jenrick relinquish the Tory whip in the same week. At this rate, the Conservative Party might even become electable again.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
Possibly because it was an extremely bloody civil war, during which both (Korean) sides committed appalling atrocities against each other's civilians, the allied commander ended up effectively sacked for risking nuclear war (MacArthur advocated for the use of nuclear weapons to render the Chinese border radioactively impassable), and it ended in stalemate, with dictatorships entrenched on both sides of the border, in the South for decades, and the north to this day.
The politics are complicated; it was neither a national humiliation like Vietnam, nor a glorious victory. The eventual outcome was probably a net positive eventually, but that wouldn't become clear for decades.
One of America's longest running TV shows - which lasted far longer than the war itself - was set there, of course. But didn't have a huge amount to do with the real world thing.
Making a full length feature film would be pretty expensive I think, and probably wouldn't earn back the investment. Restaging (for example) the battle of Chosin Reservoir would be an immense undertaking.
The third volume of Alan R. Millett's remarkable history of the war is out this summer. The trilogy is the first really comprehensive English language study of the whole conflict, and recommended if you're interested, and prepared to read a couple of thousand pages... (It's also very expensive, as it's an academic text rather than bestseller.)
I knew a man who was a POW of the North Koreans. His treatment left him mentally unwell.
By contrast, the Chinese were decent to POW’s (their worst feature was subjecting them to boring lectures on Marxism).
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Give it time.
One thing that Vance and Trump don't want to give the situation is more time. They want "peace" now.
Hard to argue with this.
Trump’s envoys work out a 20-point peace plan with President Zelenskyy. Putin rejects it out of hand and increases airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.
Trump then says Zelenskyy is the key impediment to peace.
"One man who can successfully play Trump is Putin, and that’s because what he most needs from the US President is…nothing. For so long as Trump fails to act, fails to support Ukraine, continues to divide his own country, Putin is winning. Provided flattery keeps him from acting, Putin does fine."
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
Its being suggested this has been in the works for a couple weeks at least. Jenrick had an ad out for a new parliamentary assistant, maybe an outgoing one was pissed off.......
Or a Tory true believer - don't laugh, they fo exist!
I think theres a few more of them than there were 6 months ago certainly. I think May probably stabilises and puts a hard floor under them but theyll need to be very realistic about prospects going forward. Wales will likely be the 'worst' result
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
The only upside of Putin is he is actually predictable unlike Trump.
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
Possibly because it was an extremely bloody civil war, during which both (Korean) sides committed appalling atrocities against each other's civilians, the allied commander ended up effectively sacked for risking nuclear war (MacArthur advocated for the use of nuclear weapons to render the Chinese border radioactively impassable), and it ended in stalemate, with dictatorships entrenched on both sides of the border, in the South for decades, and the north to this day.
The politics are complicated; it was neither a national humiliation like Vietnam, nor a glorious victory. The eventual outcome was probably a net positive eventually, but that wouldn't become clear for decades.
One of America's longest running TV shows - which lasted far longer than the war itself - was set there, of course. But didn't have a huge amount to do with the real world thing.
Making a full length feature film would be pretty expensive I think, and probably wouldn't earn back the investment. Restaging (for example) the battle of Chosin Reservoir would be an immense undertaking.
The third volume of Alan R. Millett's remarkable history of the war is out this summer. The trilogy is the first really comprehensive English language study of the whole conflict, and recommended if you're interested, and prepared to read a couple of thousand pages... (It's also very expensive, as it's an academic text rather than bestseller.)
I knew a man who was a POW of the North Koreans. His treatment left him mentally unwell.
By contrast, the Chinese were decent to POW’s (their worst feature was subjecting them to boring lectures on Marxism).
I knew only one Korean War vet (and not very well). He wasn't keen on talking about it.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Give it time.
One thing that Vance and Trump don't want to give the situation is more time. They want "peace" now.
Hard to argue with this.
Trump’s envoys work out a 20-point peace plan with President Zelenskyy. Putin rejects it out of hand and increases airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.
Trump then says Zelenskyy is the key impediment to peace.
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
Kemi's operation today seemed very slick, suggesting she had time to prepare. I wonder if this was a sting, aided and abetted by spies in the Jenrick camp, that was planned for some time.
Its being suggested this has been in the works for a couple weeks at least. Jenrick had an ad out for a new parliamentary assistant, maybe an outgoing one was pissed off.......
Or a Tory true believer - don't laugh, they fo exist!
I think theres a few more of them than there were 6 months ago certainly. I think May probably stabilises and puts a hard floor under them but theyll need to be very realistic about prospects going forward. Wales will likely be the 'worst' result
Delighted to announce that @NJ_Timothy is the new Shadow Justice Secretary.
As an MP, Nick has led the way in revealing the failure of West Midlands Police Chief over the Maccabi football ban, and in opposing Labour's sinister Islamophobia definition.
He is a true Conservative, brings a wealth of experience, and is a formidable campaigner.
Nick will be a massive asset to the Shadow Cabinet team as we continue to develop our plans for a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
You’re going to have explain your reasoning here on how that can be the case…?!
Delighted to announce that @NJ_Timothy is the new Shadow Justice Secretary.
As an MP, Nick has led the way in revealing the failure of West Midlands Police Chief over the Maccabi football ban, and in opposing Labour's sinister Islamophobia definition.
He is a true Conservative, brings a wealth of experience, and is a formidable campaigner.
Nick will be a massive asset to the Shadow Cabinet team as we continue to develop our plans for a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country
Thank God the Tories have got rid of that arrogant schemer from the Shadow Justice Sec portfolio. Now to take a big gulp of coffee and check who the new Shadow Justice Sec is.
Delighted to announce that @NJ_Timothy is the new Shadow Justice Secretary.
As an MP, Nick has led the way in revealing the failure of West Midlands Police Chief over the Maccabi football ban, and in opposing Labour's sinister Islamophobia definition.
He is a true Conservative, brings a wealth of experience, and is a formidable campaigner.
Nick will be a massive asset to the Shadow Cabinet team as we continue to develop our plans for a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
Comments
But it's nothing like vapes, which are inherently hazardous, even if less so than cigarettes. And which are definitely addictive.
'Politics for too many leaders is just a game,' says Green Party leader
Contrast LDs and Reform and their image, LDs want power by changing the FPTP system. Reform (sadly) want and may get power by changing the voters' mind and belief.
Short term danger for long term health i guess
The political pitch should be optimised for the next election not to “get PR in a hung parliament”.
Getting PR is probably better achieved by optimising for the next parliament anyway.
Getting PR is no unlock of Lib Dem fortune, and I would argue would actually be negative as things stand.
Rift at top of the Taliban: BBC reveals clash of wills behind internet shutdown
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg7vdpy1l2vo
Edit: and what’s wrong with drinking beer anyway?
On the other point in your thread re Vietnam and films etc, I was thinking the other day that Vietnam, WW2, The gulf war, Iraq, Afghanistan, war on terror have all spawned huge amounts of film and tv/docs and yet the Korean War seems very much like a forgotten war.
There must be plenty of great stories and angles to take from it and yet the only film I know I have seen about it is “The Bridges of Toko Ri” and nothing else. No idea why it is neglected. You would think that from a British perspective there must be great stories around the National Service bods who were sent (Michael Caine was one) and there was huge bravery and fierce action.
I would have thought that allowing under-18s to buy zero alcohol beer would have similar benefits. Apart from anything else it would reduce the pressure on them to get fake ID in order to buy alcoholic drinks, or chance their arm in the hope they won't get challenged (as I always used to do).
A long term lurker says they are absolutely shocked to see in a header in which Robert Jenrick is called a ‘twat’.
It's not a matter of messages or policies. They have plenty of them.
But they don't have media support.
And they don't have enough feet on the ground to deliver leaflets nationally or stakeboard nationally.
They urgently need to get their national social media act together with expertise and finance.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2011797871465525254
NEW: Councillor Keith Girling, chairman of Robert Jenrick’s local Conservative association in Newark, says: “Jenrick has let down his party, let down the activists who campaigned for him as a Conservative MP, and let down the voters of Newark who re-elected him in 2024.”
Tory insiders say there are a load of Conservative Associations now needing a replacement speaker for their dinners...😅
Anyone seen the speech I knocked up for a laugh pretending Jenrick was off to Reform? Think I left it on a printer in Portcullis House.
But if she does, she should avoid leaving her draft "Dear Robert" letter carelessly on the photocopier.
Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake confirms Jenrick was betrayed an ally, telling @SkyNews the documents were handed over "by one of his inner circle"
However, it is worth noting that in the US, the message of Ezra Klein is at least as hated by the Left of the Democrats as it is by the MAGA right.
Farage will be next on her list
Jenricks membership of the conservative party is over as confirmed by Holinrake just now
Jenrick would be a fool of the highest order to have anything cast iron in writing.
I think it is driven by a group of people seeing that alcohol interest/consumption is falling.
Jenrick had an ad out for a new parliamentary assistant, maybe an outgoing one was pissed off.......
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Korean_War_films
But it is indeed the forgotten war.
Possibly because it was an extremely bloody civil war, during which both (Korean) sides committed appalling atrocities against each other's civilians, the allied commander ended up effectively sacked for risking nuclear war (MacArthur advocated for the use of nuclear weapons to render the Chinese border radioactively impassable), and it ended in stalemate, with dictatorships entrenched on both sides of the border, in the South for decades, and the north to this day.
The politics are complicated; it was neither a national humiliation like Vietnam, nor a glorious victory. The eventual outcome was probably a net positive eventually, but that wouldn't become clear for decades.
One of America's longest running TV shows - which lasted far longer than the war itself - was set there, of course.
But didn't have a huge amount to do with the real world thing.
Making a full length feature film would be pretty expensive I think, and probably wouldn't earn back the investment.
Restaging (for example) the battle of Chosin Reservoir would be an immense undertaking.
The third volume of Alan R. Millett's remarkable history of the war is out this summer.
The trilogy is the first really comprehensive English language study of the whole conflict, and recommended if you're interested, and prepared to read a couple of thousand pages...
(It's also very expensive, as it's an academic text rather than bestseller.)
The Dirty Desmond scandal and the mural painting was a huge giveaway.
The silence is probably cause Farage is now trying to abjure the deal he will have made with Jenrick. Hehehehhehehe
Trump’s envoys work out a 20-point peace plan with President Zelenskyy. Putin rejects it out of hand and increases airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.
Trump then says Zelenskyy is the key impediment to peace.
Trump works for Russia.
https://x.com/mhmck/status/2011752030340334071
Nadhim Zahawi and now Robert Jenrick relinquish the Tory whip in the same week. At this rate, the Conservative Party might even become electable again.
By contrast, the Chinese were decent to POW’s (their worst feature was subjecting them to boring lectures on Marxism).
"One man who can successfully play Trump is Putin, and that’s because what he most needs from the US President is…nothing. For so long as Trump fails to act, fails to support Ukraine, continues to divide his own country, Putin is winning. Provided flattery keeps him from acting, Putin does fine."
https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3mchukiska22a
I think May probably stabilises and puts a hard floor under them but theyll need to be very realistic about prospects going forward.
Wales will likely be the 'worst' result
He wasn't keen on talking about it.
It's a suggestion I've seen repeated in a few different places recently.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/five-takeaways-reuters-interview-president-trump-2026-01-15/
Marbles completely gone, apparently.
When someone tells you who they are, listen.
As an MP, Nick has led the way in revealing the failure of West Midlands Police Chief over the Maccabi football ban, and in opposing Labour's sinister Islamophobia definition.
He is a true Conservative, brings a wealth of experience, and is a formidable campaigner.
Nick will be a massive asset to the Shadow Cabinet team as we continue to develop our plans for a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country
.https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/2011830836304199921?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Thank God the Tories have got rid of that arrogant schemer from the Shadow Justice Sec portfolio. Now to take a big gulp of coffee and check who the new Shadow Justice Sec is.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social
NEW: Kemi Badenoch confirms that Nick Timothy -Theresa May's former chief of staff at No 10 - will be the new shadow justice secretary.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.