Not exactly inspiring delivery or great messenger, but stopped clocks and all that.
.@SenMcConnell on Greenland: "Close ties with our northernmost allies are what make America's extensive reach in the Arctic actually possible. And I have yet to hear from this administration a single thing we need from Greenland that this sovereign people is not already willing to grant us. Unless and until the president can demonstrate otherwise, then the proposition at hand today is very straightforward: incinerating the hard-won trust of loyal allies in exchange for no meaningful change in U.S. access to the Arctic." https://nitter.poast.org/cspan/status/2011524297844834542#m
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
Nick Timothy is a fascinating study in the art of failing upwards. I suppose he must be a member of this NU10K we are always hearing about. Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table? Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
I bet the Tories can’t believe their look. All the poison is being actively drained into another party that’s gone as far as it can go. The new Tory leader post-May can lead a rebirth.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
Can we blame you for the crap that will likely emerge if they are successful*?
*Seriously doubt they will as NF is a serial loser.
I have a singular policy I wish to push. Namely the elimination of the Planning Policy for Traveller Sites and all associated legal provisions. It’s as two tier a framework as there is in this country and mainly serves to allow dirty money to be laundered. Once we’re out of the ECHR, I want the whole thing gone and everyone given equal treatment in planning law, regardless of their “human rights”.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
Which could of course be your wishful thinking. They're even money for largest party. That's where we're at. Your "very likely" makes them a strong back. I'm laying at that price.
After Jenrick's mislaid speech suggested he was going to defect Kemi had to sack him and his press conference with Farage this afternoon confirming he had joined Reform showed she was right.
All it will likely do is cement the division on the right between Tories and Reform, fatal potentially with FPTP and help Starmer and Davey. If Lowe joins Robinson and Habib in new party Advance that would help Sir Keir too
I bet the Tories can’t believe their look. All the poison is being actively drained into another party that’s gone as far as it can go. The new Tory leader post-May can lead a rebirth.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
He isn't. A lot of PLP support and respect (if grudging in places) amongst members.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
My basic principle of party leadership betting is to lay whoever brings the best prospects for the party if made leader......not that I'm getting old and cynical or anything.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous.
Classic pitfall of defections. I recall Carswell eviscerarting the Tories, but so much that it just begs the question why it took so long to defect in that case, which is never very satisfactorily answered. So long as you (or your new party) are popular enough you can mostly whether that, but it has to be psycologically taxing to pretend things were as bad as you claim, yet out of sheer loyalty you stuck it out for that long.
Always sounds a bit like a drunk divorcee whining about their ex down the pub.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
My basic principle of party leadership betting is to lay whoever brings the best prospects for the party if made leader......not that I'm getting old and cynical or anything.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
He isn't. A lot of PLP support and respect (if grudging in places) amongst members.
I like him a lot. Very impressive. The membership is a lot less left wing than it used to be. The only concern is his own seat IMHO.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
He isn't. A lot of PLP support and respect (if grudging in places) amongst members.
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
Nick Timothy is a fascinating study in the art of failing upwards. I suppose he must be a member of this NU10K we are always hearing about. Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table? Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
Arguing that Reform's working class supporters are neanderthals who will soon start grunting in confused indignation because too many hated Tories are joining their ranks is a facile analysis. Reform have the most politically engaged of all support bases - what other parties are filling rallies the way they do? They are accutely aware of the party's weakness in political experience, and will be delighted to have a star signing.
After Jenrick's mislaid speech suggested he was going to defect Kemi had to sack him and his press conference with Farage this afternoon confirming he had joined Reform showed she was right.
All it will likely do is cement the division on the right between Tories and Reform, fatal potentially with FPTP and help Starmer and Davey. If Lowe joins Robinson and Habib in new party Advance that would help Sir Keir too
My understanding is that Sir Keir is planning on renaming "Labour" as "Retreat".
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Don't forget gilt rates down (i suppose that was a few days back). Will be helpful for RR if she has a bit more money to spend come the next budget. Flu season seems to have peaked early this year also.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
This argument would be fine if a few things were in place for Reform:
A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals A few top tables of top talent A really good record in local government A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally A distancing from Trump and Trumpism A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.
Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
Very excited by the LD defence in Gosport tonight @Stuartinromford!
Well quite.
Liberal Gosport is an interesting phenomenon. No Gail's, though it does have a (rather out-of-place looking) Waitrose. Mostly old fashioned sandal leather and ruthless campaigning.
First alarming realisation is that Peter Chegwyn arrived on the Gosport scene 40 years ago and immediately starting running through opponents like an Australian bowler going through an English batting order.
Second is that, for once, it is necessary to cheer him on.
After Jenrick's mislaid speech suggested he was going to defect Kemi had to sack him and his press conference with Farage this afternoon confirming he had joined Reform showed she was right.
All it will likely do is cement the division on the right between Tories and Reform, fatal potentially with FPTP and help Starmer and Davey. If Lowe joins Robinson and Habib in new party Advance that would help Sir Keir too
Just shows how forecasting politics with certainty is a fools game
Jenrick gone is the best news for the conservative party in a long time and Badenoch reputation enhanced
Badenoch now needs to concentrate on the economy and attacking labour, and at the same time draw a distinct line between her and the far right Farage party
Six months ago, I thought the Conservatives had made a terrible mistake and that Jenrick should replace the invisible and immature Badenoch. He made some great YouTubes about fare dodging and managed to get himself some press, and I thought "this man actually get hit; the Conservatives would be crazy not to defenestrate Kemi".
But then Kemi stopped being quite as crap. The Tory vote share has been on the rise, and Kemi has started to grow into her job (albeit she's still a bit lazy). Jenrick also failed to find other items of salience and disappeared off the screen.
Jenrick -rightly I think- has realized his time to grab the Crown has passed.
But it is a fundamentally risky move for him, not because Reform isn't popular. (Reform is popular, even if it's poll ratings have come back somewhat.) But it's risky because Farage falls out with everyone. Farage -historically- has brooked no competition. If you outshine him, then you are ousted. Can Jenrick form a more enduring bond with Farage than Diana James, Alan Sked, Richard Tice, Rupert Lowe, Douglas Carswell, and Suzanne Evans?
This analysis assumes that Farage truely wants to PM. We can't see what's in his mind. But I think if you examine his career, it's perfectly possible he instead wants to be a political hero. How better to do that than Respected Chairman/Secretary of Reform while someone else takes the titular post (and gets all the shit)?
If that's the case, then who better to get the shit than the big shit himself?
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
Nick Timothy is a fascinating study in the art of failing upwards. I suppose he must be a member of this NU10K we are always hearing about. Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table? Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
Reform need to be careful they don't become the ERG.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous.
Classic pitfall of defections. I recall Carswell eviscerarting the Tories, but so much that it just begs the question why it took so long to defect in that case, which is never very satisfactorily answered. So long as you (or your new party) are popular enough you can mostly whether that, but it has to be psycologically taxing to pretend things were as bad as you claim, yet out of sheer loyalty you stuck it out for that long.
Always sounds a bit like a drunk divorcee whining about their ex down the pub.
Also a guy who outright lied through his teeth to colleagues and journalists over the last few months, denying categorically his intention to defect, and professing loyalty.
There's something small and brittle about him, and Farage's hyperbolic encomium of him was just silly.
After Jenrick's mislaid speech suggested he was going to defect Kemi had to sack him and his press conference with Farage this afternoon confirming he had joined Reform showed she was right.
All it will likely do is cement the division on the right between Tories and Reform, fatal potentially with FPTP and help Starmer and Davey. If Lowe joins Robinson and Habib in new party Advance that would help Sir Keir too
My understanding is that Sir Keir is planning on renaming "Labour" as "Retreat".
Having the most likely replacement for a leader who hasn't yet climbed back to an epochal polling disaster of unprecedented scale at the last GE, defect to another Party is, apparently, a good day for the Tories. Here's to many more of them
I have to say, this must be the first political defection in history to boost (however slightly, however temporally) the image of the leader of the party the defector defected from. As for Nigel - he'll take it but he's probably not over keen, hence his announcement that any further Tory-to-Reform defections will soon be outlawed. He's obviously had a bellyful and is dubious about their usefulness.
Not defecting was probably the smarter move so....
Messing up your own defection by accidently leaking your intentions early, and failing to be on time for your own grand ball - doesn't strike me as the makings of a man headed for high office. Still Farage needs to keep his shoes shiny.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
This argument would be fine if a few things were in place for Reform:
A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals A few top tables of top talent A really good record in local government A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally A distancing from Trump and Trumpism A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.
Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
Needless to say, I disagree.
1. Sure, everyone could do with more talent.
2. I don't think we're getting anything like an accurate picture of Reform's local government performance, because the media narrative is 'bunch of hooligans shits the bed' and stories that accord with that are the only ones we hear. I think the scarcity of those types of scandals implies they are doing fine.
3. Reform have (not entirely rightly to my mind) adopted an extremely fiscally conservative agenda, and abandoned the tax cuts in their 2024 manifesto.
4. 'The Rule of Law' is a loaded term dressed up as an infallible commandment. If 'the rule of law' outranks the sovereignty of Parliament, you have a very deep constitutional problem, because you don't have a democracy. Judges should apply the law, not make it.
5. This is just a litany of your personal gripes. Why should Reform, an opposition party, adopt a position on the POTUS that you approve of?
6. Reform's policy on ILTR was predicated upon the assumption that Labour would grant this status to the Boriswave, and Reform wouldn't be in a position to do anything about it until after a GE. To compare that to Government policy is completely illogical. Labour have now delayed (afaicr) the granting of ILTR to the Boriswave intake, so Reform will have no need to revisit the status when they get in.
As for cranks and gadflies, a firm no to 'distancing' - our state's arguments should be strong enough to be tested in the public square. I have no fixed view on the Covid vaccines, and I am vaccinated, but silencing opposition to them does nothing to convince me of their efficacy. We invented freedom of speech - let's cherish it.
Having the most likely replacement for a leader who hasn't yet climbed back to an epochal polling disaster of unprecedented scale at the last GE, defect to another Party is, apparently, a good day for the Tories. Here's to many more of them
TBF the last leader of the Labour party - elected twice - is now in another organisation, and most people thought getting shot of him was good news for Starmer.
Any time Badenoch can say that Zahawi and Jenrick are no longer her problem is probably a good time for her and at least an awkward one for Farage. It's made doubly awkward both because they are essentially failures and because Farage being Farage he's heaped a shit-ton of abuse on them to which they have responded in kind.
I have to say, this must be the first political defection in history to boost (however slightly, however temporally) the image of the leader of the party the defector defected from. As for Nigel - he'll take it but he's probably not over keen, hence his announcement that any further Tory-to-Reform defections will soon be outlawed. He's obviously had a bellyful and is dubious about their usefulness.
It's a very interesting tactic to put a timer on it (whether he means it or not).
It could be read as he wants the Tory-Reform all out war now as he thinks he might not win it later, at least not so assuredly, but that would probably be wishful thinking about what is more of a marketing statement - get in whilst you still can.
I wasn't expecting this story, but it makes Kemi look strong and decisive.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
I'm in a punchy mood tonight so I'll say it. She leads into the election. Starmer otoh doesn't. He exits in 27/28 and is replaced (sorry Foxy) by Streeting. Labour win again, Cons 2nd. Over in America the Dems comfortably retake the House in the midterms and Trump reacts by ... no let's just leave it there for now.
Seems I picked a quiet political day to have my birthday - happy birthday to me, happy birthday to me....
What are we to make of today's events? Jenrick's defection to Reform is the biggest surprise since the Sun rose in the east this morning. Badenoch's pre-empting of said will provide short-term tactical cover and a longer term strategic advantage. It obviously helps your leadership if your main opponent is no longer an option just as Portillo's defeat in 1997 changed the dynamic of that leadership election.
It's hard to see who would challenge Badenoch even if the Conservatives had a poor set of local contests in May but one of Stodge's main political laws (the third or fourth, I forget) is nature abhors a vacuum so someone else (Cleverley, perhaps, for whom today has been very good) will emerge were Badenoch to be seen to stumbleorthe Party's fortunes continue to look poor.
Today probably also marks the end of the Rees-Mogg of a unified "Right" at least in the short term. The Conservatives will, I suspect, seek to put as much distance between themselves and Reform and be the "sensible" alternative to Labour in the hope, by 2029, people will have forgiven and forgotten (not necessarily in that order) the "problems" of the Conservative administrations between 2010-24 (I suspect it may not work what way and all the other parties will continue to remind the electorate of what the Conservatives did or didn't do in Government).
As for GE 2029, it remains as inscrutable as the 101 bus timetable and as difficult to determine what might come along and when. The economic news this morning (which has been buried by other events) offers a ray of hope for Starmer and Reeves the economy will improve slowly though again whether enough for people to notice remains to be seen.
An interesting day and, as for its longer term impact, as Chou-en-Lai allegedly said when asked about France, though it remains unclear whether he was talking of the student protests or the French Revolution - I like to think it's the latter - "it's too early to tell"
Having the most likely replacement for a leader who hasn't yet climbed back to an epochal polling disaster of unprecedented scale at the last GE, defect to another Party is, apparently, a good day for the Tories. Here's to many more of them
TBF the last leader of the Labour party - elected twice - is now in another organisation, and most people thought getting shot of him was good news for Starmer.
It certainly helped in the short term. Medium term will tell, given the main threat seems to be coming Polanski rather than YP, troublesome though their existence will be.
As I’ve said many times, NZ is your guide to what happens when you move from FPTP to (proper) PR.
A decade of instability and then things kinda of go back to what they were like before, except you now have a permanent green, nationalist, and populist presence which the main parties have to deal with.
The Lib Dems, ceteris paribus, would probably *decline* in % support under PR, because their core offer doesn’t land distinctively and appealingly enough at a *national* level.
I wasn't expecting this story, but it makes Kemi look strong and decisive.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
I'm in a punchy mood tonight so I'll say it. She leads into the election. Starmer otoh doesn't. He exits in 27/28 and is replaced (sorry Foxy) by Streeting. Labour win again, Cons 2nd. Over in America the Dems comfortably retake the House in the midterms and Trump reacts by ... no let's just leave it there for now.
I have to say, this must be the first political defection in history to boost (however slightly, however temporally) the image of the leader of the party the defector defected from. As for Nigel - he'll take it but he's probably not over keen, hence his announcement that any further Tory-to-Reform defections will soon be outlawed. He's obviously had a bellyful and is dubious about their usefulness.
Isn't the May deadline more about getting Reform leaning Tory councillors to defect before they lose their seats?
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
Nick Timothy is a fascinating study in the art of failing upwards. I suppose he must be a member of this NU10K we are always hearing about. Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table? Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
Reform need to be careful they don't become the ERG.
They're on track to be worse than that.
The ERG were largely mad, and I'm dubious how attractive JRM etc were to the electorate. But they did believe in something, even if it's something I think was against the good of the country.
The striking thing about the Reform defectives (sorry, there might be a typo there... no there isn't) is the tendency for them to be hollow shabby opportunists. Not so much the nasty party as the tawdry party.
That said, I'm not sure Badenoch hasn't misplayed it. She might have been better off getting Jenrick into her office, asking him to explain the speech, and forced him to deny he was defecting - with a hidden camera running.
And then leaking the video when he defected with the caption, 'These people are totally untrustworthy and every word they say is a lie. They are only out for themselves. Can you just them with your country?'
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
He isn't. A lot of PLP support and respect (if grudging in places) amongst members.
I bet the Tories can’t believe their look. All the poison is being actively drained into another party that’s gone as far as it can go. The new Tory leader post-May can lead a rebirth.
Who did you have in mind?
I wouldn’t normally share such sensitive info, but I can very accurately narrow it down to one of 118 people (assuming no more defections this evening).
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Err, a "gateway". WTF?
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
That said, I'm not sure Badenoch hasn't misplayed it. She might have been better off getting Jenrick into her office, asking him to explain the speech, and forced him to deny he was defecting - with a hidden camera running.
And then leaking the video when he defected with the caption, 'These people are totally untrustworthy and every word they say is a lie. They are only out for themselves. Can you just them with your country?'
Hidden cameras in offices are a bit too much Jeremy Beadle.
As I’ve said many times, NZ is your guide to what happens when you move from FPTP to (proper) PR.
A decade of instability and then things kinda of go back to what they were like before, except you now have a permanent green, nationalist, and populist presence which the main parties have to deal with.
The Lib Dems, ceteris paribus, would probably *decline* in % support under PR, because their core offer doesn’t land distinctively and appealingly enough at a *national* level.
They don't seem to have figured this out yet.
Yes, they or we have but that doesn't invalidate the argument for proportionality inasmuch as it drives other parties more towards a centrist - I can only imagine how much you enjoy that so I'll repeat it - centrist position in order to build a majority Government.
A centre-left bloc with 40% support, a centre-right bloc with 40% support, a Liberal bloc with 10% support, a Green party with 5% support and 5% for "other" parties of whatever type is about where you'd expect us to be in "normal" times.
In a PR system, you see how important the Liberal bloc is for both the two main blocs and how courting that grouping becomes essential (whether you like it or not). Liberal groups can osciallate between the centre-left and centre-right as times and policies change.
We are in unprecedented times where the traditional centre -right/centre-left "duopoly" has lost half its support to populist, Green and Liberal blocs at least in polls (we've not had a GE in the "new" reality to test the hyptothesis under FPTP).
I wasn't expecting this story, but it makes Kemi look strong and decisive.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
I'm in a punchy mood tonight so I'll say it. She leads into the election. Starmer otoh doesn't. He exits in 27/28 and is replaced (sorry Foxy) by Streeting. Labour win again, Cons 2nd. Over in America the Dems comfortably retake the House in the midterms and Trump reacts by ... no let's just leave it there for now.
I wasn't expecting this story, but it makes Kemi look strong and decisive.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
I'm in a punchy mood tonight so I'll say it. She leads into the election. Starmer otoh doesn't. He exits in 27/28 and is replaced (sorry Foxy) by Streeting. Labour win again, Cons 2nd. Over in America the Dems comfortably retake the House in the midterms and Trump reacts by ... no let's just leave it there for now.
Bold of you to bring up Trump at all really.
Well ok, mishap with WH24. Fair dues. But c'mon not even I can be right all the time. I'm only human.
I wasn't expecting this story, but it makes Kemi look strong and decisive.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
I'm in a punchy mood tonight so I'll say it. She leads into the election. Starmer otoh doesn't. He exits in 27/28 and is replaced (sorry Foxy) by Streeting. Labour win again, Cons 2nd. Over in America the Dems comfortably retake the House in the midterms and Trump reacts by ... no let's just leave it there for now.
Not impossible.
Surprised you're open to the possibly Labour might win next time though.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Err, a "gateway". WTF?
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
That instinct is certainly there. The trouble is that, overall, alcohol does have a pretty devastating effect on NHS spending, mental health, violence, domestic abuse, obesity, you name it. Anyone with a smart watch can tell you just how brutal a drug it is. The government picks up the pieces of all these negative effects and so, naturally, they seek a way to minimise it.
The Conservatives are sometimes accused of knowing the cost of everything, and the value of nothing, when it comes to public services. The same goes for those running public services when it comes to things likes pubs. In both cases it stems from the fact costs are so much easier to measure than benefits. Things like reducing loneliness, and just generally having fun, are much trickier to get a handle on.
That said, I'm not sure Badenoch hasn't misplayed it. She might have been better off getting Jenrick into her office, asking him to explain the speech, and forced him to deny he was defecting - with a hidden camera running.
And then leaking the video when he defected with the caption, 'These people are totally untrustworthy and every word they say is a lie. They are only out for themselves. Can you just them with your country?'
Hidden cameras in offices are a bit too much Jeremy Beadle.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
This argument would be fine if a few things were in place for Reform:
A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals A few top tables of top talent A really good record in local government A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally A distancing from Trump and Trumpism A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.
Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
Needless to say, I disagree.
1. Sure, everyone could do with more talent.
2. I don't think we're getting anything like an accurate picture of Reform's local government performance, because the media narrative is 'bunch of hooligans shits the bed' and stories that accord with that are the only ones we hear. I think the scarcity of those types of scandals implies they are doing fine.
3. Reform have (not entirely rightly to my mind) adopted an extremely fiscally conservative agenda, and abandoned the tax cuts in their 2024 manifesto.
4. 'The Rule of Law' is a loaded term dressed up as an infallible commandment. If 'the rule of law' outranks the sovereignty of Parliament, you have a very deep constitutional problem, because you don't have a democracy. Judges should apply the law, not make it.
5. This is just a litany of your personal gripes. Why should Reform, an opposition party, adopt a position on the POTUS that you approve of?
6. Reform's policy on ILTR was predicated upon the assumption that Labour would grant this status to the Boriswave, and Reform wouldn't be in a position to do anything about it until after a GE. To compare that to Government policy is completely illogical. Labour have now delayed (afaicr) the granting of ILTR to the Boriswave intake, so Reform will have no need to revisit the status when they get in.
As for cranks and gadflies, a firm no to 'distancing' - our state's arguments should be strong enough to be tested in the public square. I have no fixed view on the Covid vaccines, and I am vaccinated, but silencing opposition to them does nothing to convince me of their efficacy. We invented freedom of speech - let's cherish it.
Thanks. All excellent points. A couple of responses:
2) What we do know is that Reform council plan not to cut costs and discover all that waste but plan to max out the increase in council tax.
4) 'The Rule of law outranking the sovereignty of parliament is a straw man. And the concept of 'applying' not 'making' is without meaning as all judgments apart from trivial ones have to make decisions between arguable possibilities, often because parliament has left the matter open. A nice example is the recent SC case on the meaning of 'woman' in an act of parliament.
5) No idea, I can't imagine. Especially as Farage's mate Trump is so exemplary in how to govern well and lawfully I can't think what made me say it.
6) You are attributing to dog whistling an intellectual foundation I take leave to doubt.
As to cranks (no problem with gadflies), freedom is fine. But I don't want a government that commends the bravery of those who want to burn people. The wish to burn people in itself is lawful, though care needs to be taken in how to express it to remain within the law. I would like a government that I can trust to take sides on this.
Strange business politics. Farage calls press conference to complain about cancelled council elections, then announces a star defector who says that, er, he won't be holding a by-election.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Err, a "gateway". WTF?
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
That instinct is certainly there. The trouble is that, overall, alcohol does have a pretty devastating effect on NHS spending, mental health, violence, domestic abuse, obesity, you name it. Anyone with a smart watch can tell you just how brutal a drug it is. The government picks up the pieces of all these negative effects and so, naturally, they seek a way to minimise it.
The Conservatives are sometimes accused of knowing the cost of everything, and the value of nothing, when it comes to public services. The same goes for those running public services when it comes to things likes pubs. In both cases it stems from the fact costs are so much easier to measure than benefits. Things like reducing loneliness, and just generally having fun, are much trickier to get a handle on.
I think there is a moralistic angle otherwise you might expect more research on a drug that replicated the benefits of alcohol without the drawbacks
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Err, a "gateway". WTF?
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
That instinct is certainly there. The trouble is that, overall, alcohol does have a pretty devastating effect on NHS spending, mental health, violence, domestic abuse, obesity, you name it. Anyone with a smart watch can tell you just how brutal a drug it is. The government picks up the pieces of all these negative effects and so, naturally, they seek a way to minimise it.
The Conservatives are sometimes accused of knowing the cost of everything, and the value of nothing, when it comes to public services. The same goes for those running public services when it comes to things likes pubs. In both cases it stems from the fact costs are so much easier to measure than benefits. Things like reducing loneliness, and just generally having fun, are much trickier to get a handle on.
I think there is a moralistic angle otherwise you might expect more research on a drug that replicated the benefits of alcohol without the drawbacks
Those benefits being admirably summed up by Ogden Nash
Candy is dandy But liquor is quicker
(This post is entirely unrelated to me reaching the half way point in dry January.)
This does seem like a tricky tweet to row back from; Jenrick to Zia Yusuf
I call bullshit.
You’ve spent the last 48 hours calling me a ‘traitor’ for not drawing attention to a leaked spreadsheet with our special forces and MI6 officers’ names on.
But we’re meant to believe this tweet attacking me as a traitor for having a Jewish wife & family was liked ‘accidentally’ by ‘one of the team.’ You must think we’re all thick.
No. The mask has slipped. Likes are private. You thought nobody would ever know. Unfortunately for you, the racist account who posted the tweet and could see the likes exposed you.
I see the government is planning to ban non-alcoholic beer from the under 18s, on the grounds of no evidence whatsoever...
.. and supported by no principle either.
A relatively minor, but utterly absurd idea.
I’ve heard it said that the reason for the ban is a concern that non-alcoholic drinks may become a gateway for young people to become (bigger) drinkers.
Somewhat like vapes and smoking.
There is some logic there. Relevant literature includes https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dar.13359 , a commentary which raised the issue of whether non-alcoholic drinks might be a gateway for young people (drawing that parallel with vapes/smoking). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020023052962 found that (Australian) parents reported this ("Parents were concerned that adolescent zero-alcohol beverage use could normalise alcohol consumption and be a precursor to alcohol initiation."). But the evidence base does not appear large.
Err, a "gateway". WTF?
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
That instinct is certainly there. The trouble is that, overall, alcohol does have a pretty devastating effect on NHS spending, mental health, violence, domestic abuse, obesity, you name it. Anyone with a smart watch can tell you just how brutal a drug it is. The government picks up the pieces of all these negative effects and so, naturally, they seek a way to minimise it.
The Conservatives are sometimes accused of knowing the cost of everything, and the value of nothing, when it comes to public services. The same goes for those running public services when it comes to things likes pubs. In both cases it stems from the fact costs are so much easier to measure than benefits. Things like reducing loneliness, and just generally having fun, are much trickier to get a handle on.
I think there is a moralistic angle otherwise you might expect more research on a drug that replicated the benefits of alcohol without the drawbacks
Those benefits being admirably summed up by Ogden Nash
Candy is dandy But liquor is quicker
(This post is entirely unrelated to me reaching the half way point in dry January.)
Leader: Nigel Farage (former Conservative) Deputy Leader: Richard Tice (former Conservative) Chair: Dr David Bull (former Conservative) Deputy Chair: Paul Nuttalls (former Conservative) Leader in Scotland: Malcolm Offord (former Conservative Life Peer) Mayoral Candidate: Laila Cunningham (former Conservative) Mayor of Lincolnshire: Andrea Jenkyns (former Conservative MP) Leader in London: Alex Wilson (former Conservative) Leader of Kent Council: Linden Kemkaran (former Conservative) Leader of Derbyshire Council: Alan Graves (former Conservative) Leader of Worcestershire Council: Jo Monk (former Conservative) Leader of Durham Council: Andrew Husband (former Conservative) Leader of Leicestershire Council: Dan Harrison (former Conservative) Leader of Lancashire Council: Stephen Atkinson (former Conservative) Leader of North Northamptonshire: Martin Griffiths (former Conservative)
Lucy Allan, former Conservative MP Alan Amos, former Conservative MP Sarah Atherton, former Conservative MP Jake Berry, former Conservative MP Ben Bradley, former Conservative MP Michael Brown, former Conservative MP Aidan Burley, former Conservative MP Chris Butler, former Conservative MP
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
He is Billy Nomates with PLP and membership, so I think loses to whoever else runs.
He isn't. A lot of PLP support and respect (if grudging in places) amongst members.
Streeting is the Labour Jenrick.
Ouch!
Ouch for Jenrick. Streeting doesn't have an ounce of his ability.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
This argument would be fine if a few things were in place for Reform:
A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals A few top tables of top talent A really good record in local government A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally A distancing from Trump and Trumpism A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.
Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
Needless to say, I disagree.
1. Sure, everyone could do with more talent.
2. I don't think we're getting anything like an accurate picture of Reform's local government performance, because the media narrative is 'bunch of hooligans shits the bed' and stories that accord with that are the only ones we hear. I think the scarcity of those types of scandals implies they are doing fine.
3. Reform have (not entirely rightly to my mind) adopted an extremely fiscally conservative agenda, and abandoned the tax cuts in their 2024 manifesto.
4. 'The Rule of Law' is a loaded term dressed up as an infallible commandment. If 'the rule of law' outranks the sovereignty of Parliament, you have a very deep constitutional problem, because you don't have a democracy. Judges should apply the law, not make it.
5. This is just a litany of your personal gripes. Why should Reform, an opposition party, adopt a position on the POTUS that you approve of?
6. Reform's policy on ILTR was predicated upon the assumption that Labour would grant this status to the Boriswave, and Reform wouldn't be in a position to do anything about it until after a GE. To compare that to Government policy is completely illogical. Labour have now delayed (afaicr) the granting of ILTR to the Boriswave intake, so Reform will have no need to revisit the status when they get in.
As for cranks and gadflies, a firm no to 'distancing' - our state's arguments should be strong enough to be tested in the public square. I have no fixed view on the Covid vaccines, and I am vaccinated, but silencing opposition to them does nothing to convince me of their efficacy. We invented freedom of speech - let's cherish it.
I largely disagree of course. But I do appreciate that you took the time to do a point by point response.
Strange business politics. Farage calls press conference to complain about cancelled council elections, then announces a star defector who says that, er, he won't be holding a by-election.
I am broadly with those who think that there are quite a few upsides for Badenoch in all this. That is not to say she has had a good day - having a defection from your frontbench is seismic and embarrassing, and it continues to lay bare the faultlines in the British right. But, she’s got rid of her biggest rival while tightening her grip on the leadership. There is now no alternative power base - Cleverley comes the closest, but he has the air of being the reserve option if all else fails, rather than an immediate threat. So Badenoch now has clear power and influence on her party, and most likely more time (hard now to see her going this year, though not impossible) . What she chooses to do with it will be instructive.
If I were her I’d continue to build an argument on the economy, keep one eye on the ball re the cultural/ECHR/migration stuff but don’t try to outcompete Farage. It won’t work and will drag her down. They’ve got to hope events go their way. Farage imploding would be the best case. The other one, somewhat counter-intuitively, is the immigration issue receding slightly if Mahmood manages to get a bit more of a grip on things - that allows the economy to emerge as a primary issue and it’s one where Labour under Reeves are seen very negatively and Farage as muddled.
For the British right, I’d say today is a big one because I think it means that the chances of a Tory/Reform pre-election deal or tie-in or reverse takeover are pretty much dead in the water now. That does make a Lab/LD coalition more likely, in my view, but there’s still a lot of road to travel.
Strange business politics. Farage calls press conference to complain about cancelled council elections, then announces a star defector who says that, er, he won't be holding a by-election.
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
Nick Timothy is a fascinating study in the art of failing upwards. I suppose he must be a member of this NU10K we are always hearing about. Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table? Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
Arguing that Reform's working class supporters are neanderthals who will soon start grunting in confused indignation because too many hated Tories are joining their ranks is a facile analysis. Reform have the most politically engaged of all support bases - what other parties are filling rallies the way they do? They are accutely aware of the party's weakness in political experience, and will be delighted to have a star signing.
We shall see if there is a weakness in being able to win an election. I don't think they will, but the jury is out. What I think is already visible to outsiders, cynics that we are, is a mismatch between diverse expectations of the faithful and what a Reform government can and will actually do.
If anyone thinks the voters of Clacton want a low state spending regime - say 10-20% less than current TME, they are in for a shock. They don't. They will want to keep each and every one of the expensive bits, and if possible spend more. Ask a Clacton individual at the bus stop and multiply by 68,000,000 and the answer emerges. Pensions, welfare safety net, social housing, police, NHS, defence, free education to 18. The works. All of it. Much more please. And more still on keeping our factory/railway/bus service and whatever. High spend and (sotto voce) therefore high tax for nationalist social democracy.
It makes no difference how many millions of the disgruntled public and libertarian contrarians (for whom I have some sympathy) turn up to rallies. Few can or will look at the total picture and what free stuff costs.
TBH, I wouldn't trust them whatever the %, but decent point.
67% of Reform MPs have previously been elected as representatives of the Conservative Party. They broke the country last time; do you trust them to fix it? https://x.com/Number10cat/status/2011860915273007600
Comments
.@SenMcConnell on Greenland: "Close ties with our northernmost allies are what make America's extensive reach in the Arctic actually possible. And I have yet to hear from this administration a single thing we need from Greenland that this sovereign people is not already willing to grant us. Unless and until the president can demonstrate otherwise, then the proposition at hand today is very straightforward: incinerating the hard-won trust of loyal allies in exchange for no meaningful change in U.S. access to the Arctic."
https://nitter.poast.org/cspan/status/2011524297844834542#m
"Boy, Farage really is putting together a League of Supervillains, he just needs to recruit Lettuce Girl and he’ll be ready to destroy the world."
Jenrick and Farage are two big egos. It's going to be interesting seeing how they cohabit in the Reform Traitors Castle. Tice too, will he be willing to play third fiddle as Jenrick gets his feet under the table?
Reform are doing a good job hoovering up assorted Tory hasbeens and malcontents but doesn't it rather dilute their claim to be a new kind of party? It's good for Farage who has always been more of a right wing Tory than anything else, but will it fly with his working class supporters? I'm not so sure.
Thank you Lord Astor.
(not angling for a private bet with this comment)
All it will likely do is cement the division on the right between Tories and Reform, fatal potentially with FPTP and help Starmer and Davey. If Lowe joins Robinson and Habib in new party Advance that would help Sir Keir too
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj00pp70xvo
A really good point that the chair was obviously happy to spend other people's money effectively bribing people to drop their concerns about him.
I'd say this strengthens her leadership position. For now.
A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals
A few top tables of top talent
A really good record in local government
A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt
A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally
A distancing from Trump and Trumpism
A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends
A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.
Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
Liberal Gosport is an interesting phenomenon. No Gail's, though it does have a (rather out-of-place looking) Waitrose. Mostly old fashioned sandal leather and ruthless campaigning.
First alarming realisation is that Peter Chegwyn arrived on the Gosport scene 40 years ago and immediately starting running through opponents like an Australian bowler going through an English batting order.
Second is that, for once, it is necessary to cheer him on.
Jenrick gone is the best news for the conservative party in a long time and Badenoch reputation enhanced
Badenoch now needs to concentrate on the economy and attacking labour, and at the same time draw a distinct line between her and the far right Farage party
If that's the case, then who better to get the shit than the big shit himself?
The problem is that an answer may not exist.
There's something small and brittle about him, and Farage's hyperbolic encomium of him was just silly.
I had him down as someone who'd never defect.
Here's to many more of them
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/world/africa/renfrew-christie-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ElA.eqpE.ZL4L5JdMekaF&smid=url-share
There seems to be some more promising signs in the last couple months, but it's still rough.
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/2011819053208260718
1. Sure, everyone could do with more talent.
2. I don't think we're getting anything like an accurate picture of Reform's local government performance, because the media narrative is 'bunch of hooligans shits the bed' and stories that accord with that are the only ones we hear. I think the scarcity of those types of scandals implies they are doing fine.
3. Reform have (not entirely rightly to my mind) adopted an extremely fiscally conservative agenda, and abandoned the tax cuts in their 2024 manifesto.
4. 'The Rule of Law' is a loaded term dressed up as an infallible commandment. If 'the rule of law' outranks the sovereignty of Parliament, you have a very deep constitutional problem, because you don't have a democracy. Judges should apply the law, not make it.
5. This is just a litany of your personal gripes. Why should Reform, an opposition party, adopt a position on the POTUS that you approve of?
6. Reform's policy on ILTR was predicated upon the assumption that Labour would grant this status to the Boriswave, and Reform wouldn't be in a position to do anything about it until after a GE. To compare that to Government policy is completely illogical. Labour have now delayed (afaicr) the granting of ILTR to the Boriswave intake, so Reform will have no need to revisit the status when they get in.
As for cranks and gadflies, a firm no to 'distancing' - our state's arguments should be strong enough to be tested in the public square. I have no fixed view on the Covid vaccines, and I am vaccinated, but silencing opposition to them does nothing to convince me of their efficacy. We invented freedom of speech - let's cherish it.
Any time Badenoch can say that Zahawi and Jenrick are no longer her problem is probably a good time for her and at least an awkward one for Farage. It's made doubly awkward both because they are essentially failures and because Farage being Farage he's heaped a shit-ton of abuse on them to which they have responded in kind.
It could be read as he wants the Tory-Reform all out war now as he thinks he might not win it later, at least not so assuredly, but that would probably be wishful thinking about what is more of a marketing statement - get in whilst you still can.
Seems I picked a quiet political day to have my birthday - happy birthday to me, happy birthday to me....
What are we to make of today's events? Jenrick's defection to Reform is the biggest surprise since the Sun rose in the east this morning. Badenoch's pre-empting of said will provide short-term tactical cover and a longer term strategic advantage. It obviously helps your leadership if your main opponent is no longer an option just as Portillo's defeat in 1997 changed the dynamic of that leadership election.
It's hard to see who would challenge Badenoch even if the Conservatives had a poor set of local contests in May but one of Stodge's main political laws (the third or fourth, I forget) is nature abhors a vacuum so someone else (Cleverley, perhaps, for whom today has been very good) will emerge were Badenoch to be seen to stumbleorthe Party's fortunes continue to look poor.
Today probably also marks the end of the Rees-Mogg of a unified "Right" at least in the short term. The Conservatives will, I suspect, seek to put as much distance between themselves and Reform and be the "sensible" alternative to Labour in the hope, by 2029, people will have forgiven and forgotten (not necessarily in that order) the "problems" of the Conservative administrations between 2010-24 (I suspect it may not work what way and all the other parties will continue to remind the electorate of what the Conservatives did or didn't do in Government).
As for GE 2029, it remains as inscrutable as the 101 bus timetable and as difficult to determine what might come along and when. The economic news this morning (which has been buried by other events) offers a ray of hope for Starmer and Reeves the economy will improve slowly though again whether enough for people to notice remains to be seen.
An interesting day and, as for its longer term impact, as Chou-en-Lai allegedly said when asked about France, though it remains unclear whether he was talking of the student protests or the French Revolution - I like to think it's the latter - "it's too early to tell"
The ERG were largely mad, and I'm dubious how attractive JRM etc were to the electorate. But they did believe in something, even if it's something I think was against the good of the country.
The striking thing about the Reform defectives (sorry, there might be a typo there... no there isn't) is the tendency for them to be hollow shabby opportunists. Not so much the nasty party as the tawdry party.
And then leaking the video when he defected with the caption, 'These people are totally untrustworthy and every word they say is a lie. They are only out for themselves. Can you just them with your country?'
Are the Government on a pathway to managing the prohibition of drinking in the same way they have for decades tried on smoking?
It sometimes seems this government's primary policy objective is to suck all fun out of life and destroy all pubs.
Which actually aligns quite well with its leaders personality when you think about it.
A centre-left bloc with 40% support, a centre-right bloc with 40% support, a Liberal bloc with 10% support, a Green party with 5% support and 5% for "other" parties of whatever type is about where you'd expect us to be in "normal" times.
In a PR system, you see how important the Liberal bloc is for both the two main blocs and how courting that grouping becomes essential (whether you like it or not). Liberal groups can osciallate between the centre-left and centre-right as times and policies change.
We are in unprecedented times where the traditional centre -right/centre-left "duopoly" has lost half its support to populist, Green and Liberal blocs at least in polls (we've not had a GE in the "new" reality to test the hyptothesis under FPTP).
The Conservatives are sometimes accused of knowing the cost of everything, and the value of nothing, when it comes to public services. The same goes for those running public services when it comes to things likes pubs. In both cases it stems from the fact costs are so much easier to measure than benefits. Things like reducing loneliness, and just generally having fun, are much trickier to get a handle on.
2) What we do know is that Reform council plan not to cut costs and discover all that waste but plan to max out the increase in council tax.
4) 'The Rule of law outranking the sovereignty of parliament is a straw man. And the concept of 'applying' not 'making' is without meaning as all judgments apart from trivial ones have to make decisions between arguable possibilities, often because parliament has left the matter open. A nice example is the recent SC case on the meaning of 'woman' in an act of parliament.
5) No idea, I can't imagine. Especially as Farage's mate Trump is so exemplary in how to govern well and lawfully I can't think what made me say it.
6) You are attributing to dog whistling an intellectual foundation I take leave to doubt.
As to cranks (no problem with gadflies), freedom is fine. But I don't want a government that commends the bravery of those who want to burn people. The wish to burn people in itself is lawful, though care needs to be taken in how to express it to remain within the law. I would like a government that I can trust to take sides on this.
https://x.com/michaellcrick/status/2011888107524931698?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Candy is dandy
But liquor is quicker
(This post is entirely unrelated to me reaching the half way point in dry January.)
I call bullshit.
You’ve spent the last 48 hours calling me a ‘traitor’ for not drawing attention to a leaked spreadsheet with our special forces and MI6 officers’ names on.
But we’re meant to believe this tweet attacking me as a traitor for having a Jewish wife & family was liked ‘accidentally’ by ‘one of the team.’ You must think we’re all thick.
No. The mask has slipped. Likes are private. You thought nobody would ever know. Unfortunately for you, the racist account who posted the tweet and could see the likes exposed you.
Reform should give you the boot.
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1946203405464056168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Taj Mahal live version
https://youtu.be/5ckz6jDwSmg
Reformer Conservatives
Leader: Nigel Farage (former Conservative)
Deputy Leader: Richard Tice (former Conservative)
Chair: Dr David Bull (former Conservative)
Deputy Chair: Paul Nuttalls (former Conservative)
Leader in Scotland: Malcolm Offord (former Conservative Life Peer)
Mayoral Candidate: Laila Cunningham (former Conservative)
Mayor of Lincolnshire: Andrea Jenkyns (former Conservative MP)
Leader in London: Alex Wilson (former Conservative)
Leader of Kent Council: Linden Kemkaran (former Conservative)
Leader of Derbyshire Council: Alan Graves (former Conservative)
Leader of Worcestershire Council: Jo Monk (former Conservative)
Leader of Durham Council: Andrew Husband (former Conservative)
Leader of Leicestershire Council: Dan Harrison (former Conservative)
Leader of Lancashire Council: Stephen Atkinson (former Conservative)
Leader of North Northamptonshire: Martin Griffiths (former Conservative)
Lucy Allan, former Conservative MP
Alan Amos, former Conservative MP
Sarah Atherton, former Conservative MP
Jake Berry, former Conservative MP
Ben Bradley, former Conservative MP
Michael Brown, former Conservative MP
Aidan Burley, former Conservative MP
Chris Butler, former Conservative MP
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I am broadly with those who think that there are quite a few upsides for Badenoch in all this. That is not to say she has had a good day - having a defection from your frontbench is seismic and embarrassing, and it continues to lay bare the faultlines in the British right. But, she’s got rid of her biggest rival while tightening her grip on the leadership. There is now no alternative power base - Cleverley comes the closest, but he has the air of being the reserve option if all else fails, rather than an immediate threat. So Badenoch now has clear power and influence on her party, and most likely more time (hard now to see her going this year, though not impossible) . What she chooses to do with it will be instructive.
If I were her I’d continue to build an argument on the economy, keep one eye on the ball re the cultural/ECHR/migration stuff but don’t try to outcompete Farage. It won’t work and will drag her down. They’ve got to hope events go their way. Farage imploding would be the best case. The other one, somewhat counter-intuitively, is the immigration issue receding slightly if Mahmood manages to get a bit more of a grip on things - that allows the economy to emerge as a primary issue and it’s one where Labour under Reeves are seen very negatively and Farage as muddled.
For the British right, I’d say today is a big one because I think it means that the chances of a Tory/Reform pre-election deal or tie-in or reverse takeover are pretty much dead in the water now. That does make a Lab/LD coalition more likely, in my view, but there’s still a lot of road to travel.
It's not that long since Farage said that defectors not calling a by election was cowardice.
Robert Jenrick says: "I don’t trust the Conservatives on immigration”
Robert Jenrick was the Immigration Minister under the Conservatives.
https://x.com/thom_brooks/status/2011846315588923546
If anyone thinks the voters of Clacton want a low state spending regime - say 10-20% less than current TME, they are in for a shock. They don't. They will want to keep each and every one of the expensive bits, and if possible spend more. Ask a Clacton individual at the bus stop and multiply by 68,000,000 and the answer emerges. Pensions, welfare safety net, social housing, police, NHS, defence, free education to 18. The works. All of it. Much more please. And more still on keeping our factory/railway/bus service and whatever. High spend and (sotto voce) therefore high tax for nationalist social democracy.
It makes no difference how many millions of the disgruntled public and libertarian contrarians (for whom I have some sympathy) turn up to rallies. Few can or will look at the total picture and what free stuff costs.
67% of Reform MPs have previously been elected as representatives of the Conservative Party. They broke the country last time; do you trust them to fix it?
https://x.com/Number10cat/status/2011860915273007600