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System Posts: 12,578
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

In this context “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’. Some are blindingly obvious others are less so.

Read the full story here


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  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Ed Balls gives a speech on Business, no mention of profits anywhere.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited February 2015
    Note: this isn’t the full list of all non-target seats for the Tories, but rather the full list of those that have been leaked. “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    It is almost like Mike and I are two different people, with different opinions.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    It is almost like Mike and I are two different people, with different opinions.
    How sure are you the list is piss though, or is that your heart hoping this isn't the ineptitude of the "targetting" effort by CCHQ ?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    It is almost like Mike and I are two different people, with different opinions.
    How sure are you the list is piss though, or is that your heart hoping this isn't the ineptitude of the "targetting" effort by CCHQ ?
    What do you reckon?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    It is almost like Mike and I are two different people, with different opinions.
    How sure are you the list is piss though, or is that your heart hoping this isn't the ineptitude of the "targetting" effort by CCHQ ?
    I know for a fact the Tories are targeting some of those seats.

    You and I both know, if the Tories want to win/remain in power post May, they will be (and are) targeting some of those seats.

    As I said, these lists are constantly updated and what we mean by targeted means something else to CCHQ.

    Some techie at CCHQ screwed up.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Have Labour not selected a candidate in Bradford West yet?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    For betting purposes, safest to assume:

    All LibDem seats are super marginals.

    All SLAB seats are super marginals
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited February 2015
    Re Eltham, look at the declining Labour vote over the last four elections... and if UKIP are taking from the Tories more than they are Labour, plus the BNP vote, I can see Peter Whittle going extremely close

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eltham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

    25/1 is massive.. lets hope someone prices up "to finish 2nd"
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    On topic I didn't think they even had Target in the UK. Maybe Messina was getting it mixed up with Asda?

    OT FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    Greece Update

    Morning all.

    On Sunday, Tsipras stood before the Greek parliament to give an update on what he wanted, and where he thought the negotiations were. Having spent most of last week seeing investors and assuring them "we know that we're not going to be able to deliver on all our promises to the electorate, and it is our plan to run a permanent primary budget surplus," he seemed to spin 180 degrees, and to declare that he would meet all his promises, and to make threats about collecting second world war reparations from Germany. The temperature was raised again yesterday, when the finance minister announced that, should Greece leave the Euro, then the Euro would fall apart.

    It is fair to say that at the IMF in New York, and in the corridors of Europe, SYRIZA's tactics are being met with exasperation. There was a general feeling last week that a deal was broadly in reach: with maturity extensions, a moratorium on some interest payments, coupon cuts, a reduction in the required primary surplus, and the IMF taking on the role of supervising Greece. The price for all this was - of course - continued reform. (By the way, this would be a cracking deal, reducing the effective value of Greece's outstanding debt from 170% of GDP to probably just less than 100%, in real terms.)

    However, I think the latest Tsipras u-turn (which was probably made to shore up his fractious coalition - many of whom are not prepared to accept supervision under any circumstances), may well have the opposite of what he was hoping. A number countries seem to be coming to the view that the Greek government will probably just renege on its promises anyway, so why give it the deal of the century? And a number of German economists have made pointed comments along the lines of (and I'm paraphrasing here) "Greece says that the Euro would fall apart if they left. We think it will fall apart if they stay."

    It is still slightly more likely Greece stays in the Euro, than it goes. The Americans are putting a lot of pressure on the Athens government behind the scenes (although I think the Russians are pulling in the opposite direction). But the probability of Grexit has increased significantly since last week.

    I wonder what Grexit would require procedurally on the Greek side. The conventional (?) story is that you call a bank holiday, convene parliament and vote through whatever you need. But could Tsipras get a majority for Grexit? He's leading a shaky coalition with a smallish majority that just got elected promising to stay in the Euro. It's not as if there's no alternative - they could just abide by the previous conditions and the creditors turn the taps back on.

    If my assumption is right and he can't actually win a parliamentary vote on this, can he somehow do what he needs without one?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited February 2015
    One for @Antifrank to follow?

    Janan Ganesh, Esq @JGaneshEsq
    · 21h 21 hours ago
    Why use the commonly understood "divided" when surely either "fractious", "fissiparous" or "disunited" would suffice? #GaneshStyleTip


  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Have Labour not selected a candidate in Bradford West yet?

    All women shortlist apparently, I'm hoping Galloway is putting an effort in though I don't think I'm on the right side of this bet.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    EdmundInTokyo said:

    If my assumption is right and he can't actually win a parliamentary vote on this, can he somehow do what he needs without one?

    The alternative would be that he has Greece kicked out of the Euro, rather than leaving.

    It doesn't sound like there is a majority* in the Greek parliament that would accept a compromise deal that still involved external supervision, but it looks like the other side in negotiations won't accept a deal without.

    Thus Greek leaves the Euro because of a failure to reach a deal, and the Greek government is forced to put in place alternative arrangements.

    * This might not be true. One assumes that ND would support such a deal, so maybe it could be passed if the government were willing to face down a large rebellion from within its own ranks and enough MPs were convinced it was the best deal they could get and a better option to leaving the Euro. It would pretty much destroy Syriza, though, I would have thought.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Lance Dyer ‏@Lance63 10m10 minutes ago
    Albert Einstein described insanity as -
    'Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time' Applies to Tories!

    I agree with that, though the same could be said of the L/Dems and Labour.
  • Zoso1983
    Zoso1983 Posts: 1
    Very misleading headline Mike. Left out in the cold? You have Birkenhead, Holborn & St Pancras and Leeds West on there. None of which the Conservatives have much for a chance of winning.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Nice to see Hertsmere get a mention. Mind you the last time there was any electoral activity here (posters etc) was 1983.
    Since then the only stuff we get is the leaflets through the door delivered by the RM.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    Both could be right. It is interesting but nothing any opposition activist with a room temperature IQ couldn't have figured out.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MarqueeMark said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    For betting purposes, safest to assume:

    All LibDem seats are super marginals.

    All SLAB seats are super marginals
    Don't count out the viscount...
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    I see that Braintree is regarded as “safe”. I’m not so sure. UKIP seems to be making an effort, there are 9k LibDem voters apparently up for grabs and the Labour candidate has got to be more impressive than last time!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited February 2015
    Mr. K, what's the new avatar?

    Edited extra bit: welcome to pb.com, Mr. 1983.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Have Labour not selected a candidate in Bradford West yet?

    All women shortlist apparently, I'm hoping Galloway is putting an effort in though I don't think I'm on the right side of this bet.
    Oh dear, I'm on Labour here from a long while back, sounds like they might be screwing it up.

    If so, it will be the second bloody time they'll have cost me money here!
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    It's only down to sheer brilliance.

    Unlike the "JackW Dozen" the ARSE projection has to allocate seats and also produces the numbers. It's rather a clever little wheeze and something to do with inputs, algorithms, tea leaves and a judicious oiling of single malt.

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    Because JackW, while doing some good work, is also a prime Scots bullshitter.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited February 2015
    I think if I was in Scotland I'd find it very very easy to vote SNP in somewhere like P&RS or North, but I'd vote Lib Dem in Caithness ;)

    Probably my own prejudices showing there though (And book...)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Have Labour not selected a candidate in Bradford West yet?

    All women shortlist apparently, I'm hoping Galloway is putting an effort in though I don't think I'm on the right side of this bet.
    Oh dear, I'm on Labour here from a long while back, sounds like they might be screwing it up.
    Labour shorties ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZniqRgw6IQ
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    malcolm campbell ‏@nufcno1fan 14m14 minutes ago
    Germany rejects Greece’s demands for £120billion in reparations http://dailym.ai/1CbAEBy via @MailOnline

    Fight between Tsipras and Merkel gathers pace.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    MarqueeMark said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    For betting purposes, safest to assume:

    All LibDem seats are super marginals.

    All SLAB seats are super marginals
    Indeed not.

    Safety betting and accurate projections are not happy bedfellows. If you are risk averse then this is not a game for you.

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053

    John Youles ‏@Mines_a_pint 15m15 minutes ago
    Global warming believers are like a ‘cult’, says MIT scientist http://dailym.ai/1BiJiha via @MailOnline
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    OblitusSumMe said:

    EdmundInTokyo said:

    If my assumption is right and he can't actually win a parliamentary vote on this, can he somehow do what he needs without one?

    The alternative would be that he has Greece kicked out of the Euro, rather than leaving.

    It doesn't sound like there is a majority* in the Greek parliament that would accept a compromise deal that still involved external supervision, but it looks like the other side in negotiations won't accept a deal without.

    Thus Greek leaves the Euro because of a failure to reach a deal, and the Greek government is forced to put in place alternative arrangements.

    * This might not be true. One assumes that ND would support such a deal, so maybe it could be passed if the government were willing to face down a large rebellion from within its own ranks and enough MPs were convinced it was the best deal they could get and a better option to leaving the Euro. It would pretty much destroy Syriza, though, I would have thought.
    Non-rhetorically, do parliament need to vote to honour the deal they've already agreed to? I guess there's an extension of something involved, so maybe they need to agree to that?

    But if nobody will agree anything, wouldn't Greece stay in the Euro, only its banks don't have any Euros? Sucks if you have money in a Greek bank, but presumbly you could open a new account with Commerzbank and carry on doing business...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Let's assume it's right. Which are the surprises?

    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Cannock Chase
    Rochester & Strood
    Boston & Skegness

    Any others that anyone thinks would be surprising if true?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    In fairness the list is broadly accurate, but to think R&S/B&S were ever going to be, for one second, either safe or a lost cause is interesting.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    Because JackW, while doing some good work, is also a prime Scots bullshitter.
    Such mixed praise from @MikeK is almost akin to winning a Nobel prize !!

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    antifrank said:

    Let's assume it's right. Which are the surprises?

    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Cannock Chase
    Rochester & Strood
    Boston & Skegness

    Any others that anyone thinks would be surprising if true?

    Dudley South?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Surely this "list" is only of interest where it diverges from the 40/40 (hold 40, gain 40)? And I don't know when that list was created - if more than 12 months ago, it would need to be tweaked to respond to the changing threat from UKIP.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear...

    @sammacrory: "Isn't it getting a bit trivial. You're jumping on this agenda"- Balls snaps as Miliband's #BCCConf absence - not Balls' speech - makes news
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeK
    It isn't exactly a Damacine conversion by the professor?

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_Lindzen.htm
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    rcs1000 said:

    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.

    Anyone know if New Drachma are being printed anywhere. It was rumoured some time ago that the Dutch had a suupply,or at least plans for a supply, of New Guilders.

    Any overtime being worked at De La Rue?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    antifrank said:

    Let's assume it's right. Which are the surprises?

    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Cannock Chase
    Rochester & Strood
    Boston & Skegness

    Any others that anyone thinks would be surprising if true?

    Thanet South and Louth and Horncastle both classified as PPC.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    Because JackW, while doing some good work, is also a prime Scots bullshitter.
    Such mixed praise from @MikeK is almost akin to winning a Nobel prize !!

    :D
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    In fairness the list is broadly accurate, but to think R&S/B&S were ever going to be, for one second, either safe or a lost cause is interesting.

    Going back in time... those two looked safe as houses prior to UKIP. Cannock probably looked safe prior to the Nazi stag do. West Aberdeenshire is Scottish; normal rules don't apply :-)

    That leaves Dudley South which may well have been seen as safe prior to Chris Kelly standing down; perhaps the candidate photo was tagged as non-target for another seat?
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Let's assume it's right. Which are the surprises?

    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Cannock Chase
    Rochester & Strood
    Boston & Skegness

    Any others that anyone thinks would be surprising if true?

    Thanet South and Louth and Horncastle both classified as PPC.
    Cannock Chase is very surprising, and nice for my long odds UKIP bet.

    All I need now is for those nice Conservatives to vote tactically.....
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Absolutely bang on the money with that post Eagles.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @TSE says the list is a piss, and Our Genial Host uses it as the basis of a thread ?!

    It is almost like Mike and I are two different people, with different opinions.
    How sure are you the list is piss though, or is that your heart hoping this isn't the ineptitude of the "targetting" effort by CCHQ ?
    I know for a fact the Tories are targeting some of those seats.

    You and I both know, if the Tories want to win/remain in power post May, they will be (and are) targeting some of those seats.

    As I said, these lists are constantly updated and what we mean by targeted means something else to CCHQ.

    Some techie at CCHQ screwed up.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    You don't get to be an MIT professor by not knowing your shit.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    rcs1000 said:

    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. Obviously both these options are politically difficult for coalition MPs, so I'm wondering whether Tsipras needs them to vote in favour of them before he's able to execute either or both.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarqueeMark said:

    Surely this "list" is only of interest where it diverges from the 40/40 (hold 40, gain 40)? And I don't know when that list was created - if more than 12 months ago, it would need to be tweaked to respond to the changing threat from UKIP.

    Is there a list of the 40:40 somewhere? It strikes me that this list might match exactly.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    OldKingCole said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.

    Anyone know if New Drachma are being printed anywhere. It was rumoured some time ago that the Dutch had a suupply,or at least plans for a supply, of New Guilders.

    Any overtime being worked at De La Rue?
    Could the Greeks find $50 million+ to pay them?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18180232
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Tissue_Price said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surely this "list" is only of interest where it diverges from the 40/40 (hold 40, gain 40)? And I don't know when that list was created - if more than 12 months ago, it would need to be tweaked to respond to the changing threat from UKIP.

    Is there a list of the 40:40 somewhere? It strikes me that this list might match exactly.
    Maybe an earlier version, from 2011 or 2012.....

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surely this "list" is only of interest where it diverges from the 40/40 (hold 40, gain 40)? And I don't know when that list was created - if more than 12 months ago, it would need to be tweaked to respond to the changing threat from UKIP.

    Is there a list of the 40:40 somewhere? It strikes me that this list might match exactly.
    Maybe an earlier version, from 2011 or 2012.....

    Quite.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Anyway, the Beast of Bolsover can sleep easier knowing the might of the CCHQ machine isn't gunning for him. (Which kinda sums up the non-story nature of this!)
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
  • ___Bobajob___
    ___Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    The very definition of false precision.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. Obviously both these options are politically difficult for coalition MPs, so I'm wondering whether Tsipras needs them to vote in favour of them before he's able to execute either or both.
    I would think his concern will be that if he tries to go solo on this without the backing of some sort of formal vote from his coalition, the coalition will fragment, and his government will fall to a vote of confidence shortly there after.

    Personally I think it comes down to whether Tsipras is more willing to lose his government or the Euro. Pretty much any proposal that would be acceptable to the Troika would involve supervision, and pretty much any proposal that involves that sort of supervision will be unacceptable to reportedly a third of his coalition.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar

    MIT professors are usually right.

    "Economist at MIT Awarded Nobel Prize, Blasts Reagan : Hits 'Disastrous' Federal Deficit, Urges Tax Hike"

    http://articles.latimes.com/1985-10-15/news/mn-16490_1_savings
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    TheWatcher said:

    OldKingCole said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @EiT:

    Greece would effectively be forced out the Euro, if the ECB refused to support the Greek banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. The ECB would be required by its constitution not to accept Greek government bonds as collateral should Greece be in default. If no deal is reached between Greece and its creditors by the end of February, it will almost certainly default.

    With ELA support removed, Greek banks would be bust, and would be unable to process payments or allow withdrawls. In this circumstance, the only option open to the Greek government would be to suspend Euro membership, implement a forced conversion to Drachma, and then print Drachma to support the Greek banks with.

    Anyone know if New Drachma are being printed anywhere. It was rumoured some time ago that the Dutch had a suupply,or at least plans for a supply, of New Guilders.

    Any overtime being worked at De La Rue?
    Could the Greeks even afford to pay De La Rue the $50 million+ to do so?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18180232
    Be an awful lot of New Drachma admittedly! hate to think what the exchange rate would be!

    It’d bit a bit like the old lira! Or, for Sean T, the Vietnamese dong.
  • ___Bobajob___
    ___Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    A disgruntled employee at Central Office is behind this outrage.

    Did Scott_P finally get potted for spending all day on Twitter?
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. K, what's the new avatar?

    Edited extra bit: welcome to pb.com, Mr. 1983.

    Good morning Morris and of course all PBers

    The new avatar is from Brandon Sanderson's "The Stormilght Archive": The Way of Kings and Words of Radiance. The avatar shows the sigils from Bridge 4. and the Bridge 4 guards.


  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 - I think the US are not just applying pressure on Greece, but they are applying pressure on the EMU countries as well to come up with a deal. Also, Merkel's peace plan with Russia has gone down so poorly with the Whitehouse that many now don't think that Germany can be trusted to have primacy within the EU and want the UK to take more leading role again.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Additionally good manufacturing news this morning, industrial production is down but the manufacturing industry has beaten expectation of no growth and a cut of a third in YoY growth. The major faller in industrial production was electricity and oil/gas.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. K, I've been meaning to get Words of Radiance since it came out. Way of Kings is my favourite Sanderson book so far (also meaning to get Douglas Hulick's second story).
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    Take Merkel's best offer, or if you don't have the votes to do that dissolve the government and have new elections. I'd have thought the creditors would extend credit for long enough for these annoying left-wingers to go away. Either way the ECB turns the taps back on and everybody goes back to work.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    Convert all money in Greek banks to New Drachma, capital controls, fixed exchange rates and USD/GBP bonds sold in London to cover the immediate FX shortfall.
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    At least it’s spring and there’ll soon be tourist spending. Maybe, if you’re going to Greece, take dollars or pounds.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edmundintokyo said:

    Take Merkel's best offer, or if you don't have the votes to do that dissolve the government and have new elections. I'd have thought the creditors would extend credit for long enough for these annoying left-wingers to go away. Either way the ECB turns the taps back on and everybody goes back to work.

    There wouldn't be a best offer. In such a scenario, there is one thing and thing only which could rescue the situation, which would be an unconditional guarantee of all liabilities of Greek banks by someone creditworthy and big enough to take the hit, which in practice means the ECB, IMF and the German taxpayer in some form or another. And that ain't gonna happen.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    Convert all money in Greek banks to New Drachma, capital controls, fixed exchange rates and USD/GBP bonds sold in London to cover the immediate FX shortfall.
    That supposed a great deal more competence than the Greek state has shown in the past.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    OldKingCole said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    At least it’s spring and there’ll soon be tourist spending. Maybe, if you’re going to Greece, take dollars or pounds.
    And your own medical supplies etc

    TBH why bother? The country is clapped out, and the PM is threatening to nationalise the decent holiday resorts. There are better places to go.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2015
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Nice to see Hertsmere get a mention. Mind you the last time there was any electoral activity here (posters etc) was 1983.
    Since then the only stuff we get is the leaflets through the door delivered by the RM.

    There are eleven constituencies in the county of Hertfordshire. Suppose you split the county into three multi-member PR constituencies, two returning four MPs and the third, three. You might create a four-member PR constituency from the present constituencies of Hertsmere, Watford, St Albans and South West Hertfordshire.

    The aggregate vote in the 2010 general election in these four seats was, with notional PR results:
    Political Party  | Votes   |   %   | Seats (D'Hondt PR)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Conservative     |  98,073 | 46.3% |        2
    Liberal Democrat |  61,157 | 28.8% |        1
    Labour           |  39,435 | 18.6% |        1
    UKIP             |   6,389 |  3.0% |
    Other            |   7,009 |  3.3% |
    Total            | 212,027 |
    I'd hope that this would encourage more campaigning in Hertsmere and South West Hertfordshire, rather than having it all concentrated in Watford, but except for the recent rise of UKIP the four seats here look pretty safe in a PR calculation, so perhaps it would just kill campaigning in Watford?
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    OldKingCole said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    At least it’s spring and there’ll soon be tourist spending. Maybe, if you’re going to Greece, take dollars or pounds.
    Would you really want to head off to a nationalised holiday resort?
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    isam said:

    Re Eltham, look at the declining Labour vote over the last four elections... and if UKIP are taking from the Tories more than they are Labour, plus the BNP vote, I can see Peter Whittle going extremely close

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eltham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

    25/1 is massive.. lets hope someone prices up "to finish 2nd"

    Yes but there has been a national swing against Labour during that period and Labour is expected to see a positive swing in 2015.

    I prefer to compare with 1992 as that had a similar national picture to now

    1992 - Labour - 41.9%, Con - 46%, LD -11.7%
    2010 - Labour - 41.4%, Con - 37.5%, LD -12.6%

    So really the Lab vote has looked pretty solid while the Con vote has declined.

    I'd expect Lab to get around 45% next time and an increased majority
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Lucy Powell, take a bow...

    @chrisshipitv: Source at #BCCConf tells me they asked EdM office if they were SURE Labour leader didn't want to speak here? Were told NO, it will be EdB...
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    antifrank said:

    @Pulpstar If West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine is a non-target for the Conservatives, it raises the question where they are targeting in Scotland. That has to be comfortably one of their three best shots north of the border (not that they have any easy targets in Scotland, of course).

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Dumfries & Galloway as the third?
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
    saddened said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    That wouldn't be their only option, they could go get back with program, ELA support would be restored, the banks would be unbust, and everybody could go back to merrily depositing and withdrawing their Euros. .

    No, if the situation were to reach the point of a bank run and complete chaos, there'd be no going back. It would become completely unstable in a matter of hours.
    Close the banks, stop the bank run.
    Yes, absolutely, that is what they'd have to do. But then what? You can't go back to business as usual and pretend nothing had happened.
    At least it’s spring and there’ll soon be tourist spending. Maybe, if you’re going to Greece, take dollars or pounds.
    Would you really want to head off to a nationalised holiday resort?
    No... but making them appealing to a certain type of punter isn't that hard, duty free booze at the resorts, cheap fish and chip dinners, endless supply of free contraceptives and you would be fighting off 18-30 crowd with a stick. ;)

  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    Lucy Powell, take a bow...

    @chrisshipitv: Source at #BCCConf tells me they asked EdM office if they were SURE Labour leader didn't want to speak here? Were told NO, it will be EdB...

    Anyone know what more pressing engagement meant that Ed M reluctantly had to decline the invitation?
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    On topic - nice to have it confirmed that my seat (Vauxhall) isn't a Tory target... Although I think that you could probably tell that already - my favourite recent moment was a couple of Saturdays ago - the local Labour councillors had an action day in nearby Battersea, the Tories were doing similarly down in Tooting or somewhere, and the Lib Dems were all next door trying to shore up Simon Hughes' seat in Bermondsey...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JasonGroves1: Cameron says Miliband now sees business as 'the enemy' #BCCConf

    Ed can refute that in his speech.

    Oh, wait...
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. K, I've been meaning to get Words of Radiance since it came out. Way of Kings is my favourite Sanderson book so far (also meaning to get Douglas Hulick's second story).

    @Morris_Dancer
    You will love it; the writing and the story weaving are near impeccable. I cant wait for Book 3, which is due at the end of the year, I hope.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Now might be the right time to offer the Elgin Marbles back to Greece...just to give them at least one happy day..
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edmundintokyo said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    EdmundInTokyo said:

    If my assumption is right and he can't actually win a parliamentary vote on this, can he somehow do what he needs without one?

    The alternative would be that he has Greece kicked out of the Euro, rather than leaving.

    It doesn't sound like there is a majority* in the Greek parliament that would accept a compromise deal that still involved external supervision, but it looks like the other side in negotiations won't accept a deal without.

    Thus Greek leaves the Euro because of a failure to reach a deal, and the Greek government is forced to put in place alternative arrangements.

    * This might not be true. One assumes that ND would support such a deal, so maybe it could be passed if the government were willing to face down a large rebellion from within its own ranks and enough MPs were convinced it was the best deal they could get and a better option to leaving the Euro. It would pretty much destroy Syriza, though, I would have thought.
    Non-rhetorically, do parliament need to vote to honour the deal they've already agreed to? I guess there's an extension of something involved, so maybe they need to agree to that?

    But if nobody will agree anything, wouldn't Greece stay in the Euro, only its banks don't have any Euros? Sucks if you have money in a Greek bank, but presumbly you could open a new account with Commerzbank and carry on doing business...
    I think that if there is no new deal, and the Greek Parliament/government doesn't honour the old deal (including privatisations, spending cuts, etc) then the EU cuts off bailout funding and the Greek government runs out of Euros.

    The only way for the Greek government to keep functioning in that circumstance is surely to leave the Euro and start printing heavily devalued Drachmas to pay people with - thus achieving austerity through devaluation.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbcnickrobinson: Cameron echoes Kinnock - "I warn you not to aspire to aspire, to work, to turn a profit ... because in their vision you are the enemy"

    @paulwaugh: Cameron goes for Red Wedge tactic. Says Blair and Brown believed in business, but Miliband doesn't.

    @BBCNormanS: David Cameron says "everyone who works in business has reason to fear the alternative" of a Labour Govt #bccconf
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    richardDodd said:

    Now might be the right time to offer the Elgin Marbles back to Greece...just to give them at least one happy day..

    Wouldn't it be more helpful to offer to buy the Parthenon?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. K, I have heard similarly positive things elsewhere. Currently got 5 [physical] books to read and quite a few more on the old Kindle, so it'll be a while before I get around to it, though.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anyone know what more pressing engagement meant that Ed M reluctantly had to decline the invitation?

    I understand he was invited to share a bacon sandwich with public sector staff
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Damn, there are reds under our beds! Repent your evil ways sinners and bow down to the true and only creators.
    Industry PLC.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    You don't get to be an MIT professor by not knowing your shit.

    There is more than one professor at MIT.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    Lucy Powell, take a bow...

    @chrisshipitv: Source at #BCCConf tells me they asked EdM office if they were SURE Labour leader didn't want to speak here? Were told NO, it will be EdB...

    Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are operating a good cop/bad cop strategy with regard to business issues.

    Ed is the bad cop.
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Oh - and apologies that I've been somewhat absent on here since Christmas (cue multiple 'who are you' comments no doubt) - been focused on trying to get some Pirate activity and traction going locally and on Twitter etc. so have less time for interesting and diverting (but potentially less helpful) discussion here. Would just like to say thanks to antifrank for his regular betting blogposts - well written and really clear to aid understanding of what's likely going on - please keep them up. :-)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    David_Evershed said:

    Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are operating a good cop/bad cop strategy with regard to business issues.

    Ed is the bad cop.

    Shouldn't that be Bad Cop, Keystone Cop?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Lennon, are you standing again?
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    edited February 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Take Merkel's best offer, or if you don't have the votes to do that dissolve the government and have new elections. I'd have thought the creditors would extend credit for long enough for these annoying left-wingers to go away. Either way the ECB turns the taps back on and everybody goes back to work.

    There wouldn't be a best offer. In such a scenario, there is one thing and thing only which could rescue the situation, which would be an unconditional guarantee of all liabilities of Greek banks by someone creditworthy and big enough to take the hit, which in practice means the ECB, IMF and the German taxpayer in some form or another. And that ain't gonna happen.
    What's preventing that situation now? It's not like nobody's noticed the risk of having their money in a Greek bank.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited February 2015
    Strange to see Ilford South absent from that list (#2 in ethnic minority population after East Ham), as well as East Ham itself.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are operating a good cop/bad cop strategy with regard to business issues.

    Ed is the bad cop.

    Shouldn't that be Bad Cop, Keystone Cop?
    "It's a fair cop"
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are operating a good cop/bad cop strategy with regard to business issues.

    Ed is the bad cop.

    Shouldn't that be Bad Cop, Keystone Cop?
    I see EdM as more of an Officer Dibble, with Cameron as Top Cat.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    Totally O/T, but I found this on the BBC.
    "EX-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who denies charges of pimping, has told a court in northern France that he took part in only a few rare sex parties.

    He said prosecutors had greatly exaggerated the frequency of his "licentious evenings". There had only been 12 in three years, he said."

    You'd have to have a heart of stone etc........
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think the list is surprising. The only seats the Tories will be targeting are LD marginals and a small number of Labour marginals such as Southampton Itchen and Hampstead.
This discussion has been closed.

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