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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the

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  • Now might be the right time to offer the Elgin Marbles back to Greece...just to give them at least one happy day..

    Or we could give them back to the Turks, who gave them to us in the first place.
  • Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are operating a good cop/bad cop strategy with regard to business issues.

    Ed is the bad cop.

    Shouldn't that be Bad Cop, Keystone Cop?
    I see EdM as more of an Officer Dibble, with Cameron as Top Cat.
    Lord A's poll last week

    Finally, my thanks to all the Twitter followers who suggested questions to reveal more about voters’ perceptions. I will use as many as I can, but this week (with thanks to Chris Deerin)… party leaders as cartoon characters. Mr Cameron? “Top Cat. He doesn’t get flustered”, or for those who took a less benign view, Dick Dastardly.

    Mr Miliband? The hapless but by no means unlikeable Deputy Dawg, or possibly Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-31-lab-31-lib-dem-8-ukip-15-green-9/
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mr. K, I have heard similarly positive things elsewhere. Currently got 5 [physical] books to read and quite a few more on the old Kindle, so it'll be a while before I get around to it, though.

    I'm in the habit of getting of collecting first editions of selected fantasy books. Thats why for the past 8 years I've been getting the 1st editions via Amazon (USA). The first editions of the Mistborn trilogy are now worth quite a bit, and I missed that, much to my chagrin. I do however have the 1st editions of Stormlight and they are really beautiful to hold; the artwork in each volume is amazing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Scott_P said:

    Lucy Powell, take a bow...

    @chrisshipitv: Source at #BCCConf tells me they asked EdM office if they were SURE Labour leader didn't want to speak here? Were told NO, it will be EdB...

    Anyone know what more pressing engagement meant that Ed M reluctantly had to decline the invitation?
    Just stick "business" on the ever- lengthening list of things Ed doesn't want to talk about.

    It is now at the point where Labour can't talk about their own ground, because the media are dragging them back to talk about stuff they don't want to talk about. And it is only going to get worse....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bad Cop, not much cop.

    Ed n Ed...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Well whether this list is of any use or not, I have backed UKIP in three of them as I made one of them a fantastic bet anyway, and the other two pretty good..if the list is true, all the better, if not, not to worry

    Wolverhampton NE 33/1 and 25/1
    Stoke on Trent South 12/1
    Eltham 25/1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    **Crossover Alert ** Crossover Alert **

    Part-ELBOWing YG, Populus and Ashcroft yields

    Con 33.3
    Lab 32.9
    UKIP 14.1
    LD 8.2
    Grn 5.6

    CON LEAD of 0.4%!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Mr. Lennon, are you standing again?

    Yup - Pirate Candidate in Vauxhall. Taking more time than I perhaps should be letting it but there we go. Impressively we already have 8 candidates declared this far out (Lab, Tory, LD, Grn, UKIP, Pirate, SocialistGB, Whig). Would expect a TUSC to be added to that list in due course, and have heard rumours of a 'Beach Party' as well (...no idea...)

    Feel free to follow me on Twitter to keep upto date with a combination of local Vauxhall issues, as well as national Pirate thoughts and concerns. ;-) (at pirate underscore lennon)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Shadsy goes 5/6 each of two in Rochester
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Just stick "business" on the ever- lengthening list of things Ed doesn't want to talk about.

    It is now at the point where Labour can't talk about their own ground, because the media are dragging them back to talk about stuff they don't want to talk about. And it is only going to get worse....

    The crucial question for Lucy today is, will whatever event Ed is attending today get higher up the evening news bulletin than "Ed snubs business. Again"?

    My guess is, no.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    I have to agree. It is as bad as asking six questions on tax avoidance.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This might interest those that like Choo-Choos.
    http://ukipdaily.com/ukip-railway-policy-suggestions/
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeK said:

    This might interest those that like Choo-Choos.
    http://ukipdaily.com/ukip-railway-policy-suggestions/

    I can guess -

    1. Steam trains
    2. Uniformed drivers and stokers.
    3. The reintroduction of Third Class for Immigrants.
  • MikeK said:

    This might interest those that like Choo-Choos.
    http://ukipdaily.com/ukip-railway-policy-suggestions/

    I can guess -

    1. Steam trains
    2. Uniformed drivers and stokers.
    3. The reintroduction of Third Class for Immigrants.
    I would go for a complete reversal of Beeching, the worst railway vandal in history!
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    Just stick "business" on the ever- lengthening list of things Ed doesn't want to talk about.

    It is now at the point where Labour can't talk about their own ground, because the media are dragging them back to talk about stuff they don't want to talk about. And it is only going to get worse....

    The crucial question for Lucy today is, will whatever event Ed is attending today get higher up the evening news bulletin than "Ed snubs business. Again"?

    My guess is, no.
    He could have wagged his finger at business and said they were a disgrace for leaving behind the workers at a time of a cost of living crisis. Core would have loved it. Business would have sat there in sullen silence - would have been a big win for Ed.

    Instead..... Where's that chicken suit got to?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    Shadsy goes 5/6 each of two in Rochester

    #Shadsyknows

    Take the 6-4 for UKIP at Sky Bet.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He could have wagged his finger at business and said they were a disgrace for leaving behind the workers at a time of a cost of living crisis. Core would have loved it. Business would have sat there in sullen silence - would have been a big win for Ed.

    Instead..... Where's that chicken suit got to?

    Is Bill Somebody in the audience?
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Greens are closing in on their target of having candidates in three-quarters of seats in England and Wales. They're 93% of the way there already: 25 candidates to go.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dimbleby gives one of his best ever performances on the BBC's 1992 election show in my view.

    ITN's 1992 election show is also on YouTube, although it's not anywhere near as good. Presented by Jon Snow and Alastair Stewart. It's the only election show Jon Snow has ever fronted.
    Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142

    Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    That is rather a hostage to fortune, no?

    I've got a £100 straight up wager with a pal that EdM will never be PM, placed a few months after the 2012 Budget. Looking increasingly good, that one....

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    Most of the amateur election pundits seem to think Rochester is too close to call. Definite recount territory, which means less than 1,000 votes either way.
    isam said:

    Shadsy goes 5/6 each of two in Rochester

  • Prompted by a comment of Pulpstar, here are my thoughts on the seat band markets:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/adding-and-subtracting-implications-for.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    AndyJS said:

    Most of the amateur election pundits seem to think Rochester is too close to call. Definite recount territory, which means less than 1,000 votes either way.

    isam said:

    Shadsy goes 5/6 each of two in Rochester

    96% book on the matter at the moment.

    Fill your boots.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    I have to agree. It is as bad as asking six questions on tax avoidance.

    It would be suicidal of Ed to go on tax avoidance. The government's record on reducing tax avoidance has been 100x better than the previous one's. Dave will have too many statistics and new rules ready for it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.
  • MikeK said:

    This might interest those that like Choo-Choos.
    http://ukipdaily.com/ukip-railway-policy-suggestions/

    I can guess -

    1. Steam trains
    2. Uniformed drivers and stokers.
    3. The reintroduction of Third Class for Immigrants.
    I would go for a complete reversal of Beeching, the worst railway vandal in history!
    It is along those lines, except based on local initiatives to decide where best to do so.

    Sounds very sensible.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    AndyJS said:

    Dimbleby gives one of his best ever performances on the BBC's 1992 election show in my view.

    ITN's 1992 election show is also on YouTube, although it's not anywhere near as good. Presented by Jon Snow and Alastair Stewart. It's the only election show Jon Snow has ever fronted.

    Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

    Absolutely, Dimbles is particularly unbiased on this, and very good at cutting off the absolute rot trotted out by certain politicos. Very impressive indeed.

    Incidentally, some people never change. Interview with Ben Elton was dire....

  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Interesting that Hampstead & Kilburn isn't on the list. Tory price continues to shorten there.
    http://politicalbookie.com/2015/02/10/can-the-tories-win-hampstead-kilburn/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I agree, Dimbleby gets the tone exactly right. He's also excellent at summarising the constituency results. He gives detail but not too much. In subsequent programmes he's talked down to the viewers a bit, no doubt on the orders of other people (rather than it being his decision).
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dimbleby gives one of his best ever performances on the BBC's 1992 election show in my view.

    ITN's 1992 election show is also on YouTube, although it's not anywhere near as good. Presented by Jon Snow and Alastair Stewart. It's the only election show Jon Snow has ever fronted.

    Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

    Absolutely, Dimbles is particularly unbiased on this, and very good at cutting off the absolute rot trotted out by certain politicos. Very impressive indeed.

    Incidentally, some people never change. Interview with Ben Elton was dire....

  • If my assumption is right and he can't actually win a parliamentary vote on this, can he somehow do what he needs without one?

    The alternative would be that he has Greece kicked out of the Euro, rather than leaving.

    It doesn't sound like there is a majority* in the Greek parliament that would accept a compromise deal that still involved external supervision, but it looks like the other side in negotiations won't accept a deal without.

    Thus Greek leaves the Euro because of a failure to reach a deal, and the Greek government is forced to put in place alternative arrangements.

    * This might not be true. One assumes that ND would support such a deal, so maybe it could be passed if the government were willing to face down a large rebellion from within its own ranks and enough MPs were convinced it was the best deal they could get and a better option to leaving the Euro. It would pretty much destroy Syriza, though, I would have thought.
    Non-rhetorically, do parliament need to vote to honour the deal they've already agreed to? I guess there's an extension of something involved, so maybe they need to agree to that?

    But if nobody will agree anything, wouldn't Greece stay in the Euro, only its banks don't have any Euros? Sucks if you have money in a Greek bank, but presumbly you could open a new account with Commerzbank and carry on doing business...
    I think that if there is no new deal, and the Greek Parliament/government doesn't honour the old deal (including privatisations, spending cuts, etc) then the EU cuts off bailout funding and the Greek government runs out of Euros.

    The only way for the Greek government to keep functioning in that circumstance is surely to leave the Euro and start printing heavily devalued Drachmas to pay people with - thus achieving austerity through devaluation.
    Alternatively -- Greece asks Russia for a loan, which prompts America to lean on Germany to play nice.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited February 2015
    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MaxPB said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    I have to agree. It is as bad as asking six questions on tax avoidance.

    It would be suicidal of Ed to go on tax avoidance. The government's record on reducing tax avoidance has been 100x better than the previous one's. Dave will have too many statistics and new rules ready for it.
    This week Ed, will go on an extremely narrow micro issue, probably around someone sympathetic who has had a poor experience with the NHS. Cameron will have to bluster and waffle because he won't have a clue what Ed's wibbling about, Ed will hilariously say this is questions to the prime minister but shortly, Cameron will be in a position to ask questions from this side of the house.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    I see Richmond (YORKS) is on the list.

    That's probably because it's one of the Tories' safest seats in the country, if not the safest. The same is true for Thirsk & Malton.
  • Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

    Preaching to the choir of the teaching profession? The one that mainly voted Conservative last time, you mean? However much you admire his goals, it is a measure of Gove's political incompetence that he managed so quickly to alienate the profession which started out on his side.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    CD13 said:

    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.

    It's a list of non-targets (i.e. no-hopers and safe seats), not a list of targets. Boston is pretty safe, I'd have thought.
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
    But Major was over 20 years ago...
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
    But Major was over 20 years ago...
    Conservatives leading the trend!
  • Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    I don't think you can tell - if e.g. WNV (6) & DK (14) are both the result of rounding down then the poll is consistent with 34-33.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    CD13 said:

    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.

    It's a list of non-targets (i.e. no-hopers and safe seats), not a list of targets. Boston is pretty safe, I'd have thought.
    UKIP are 20% clear in the polls, 4/7 to win it and the Tories think its so safe they don't have to bother trying?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    I have to agree. It is as bad as asking six questions on tax avoidance.

    It would be suicidal of Ed to go on tax avoidance. The government's record on reducing tax avoidance has been 100x better than the previous one's. Dave will have too many statistics and new rules ready for it.
    The current Governments record on tax avoidance is bizarrely mixed. On one had they introduced the high-value GAAR and have aggressively pursued various tax avoidance strategies and ended the Channel Islands Low Value Consignment relief dodge used to undercut the highstreet by Amazon - all actions for which I think they deserve massive praise. On the other they introduced laws to make it easier to offshore profits from companies.

    It's like the policies being pursued are from two different factions of government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    CD13 said:

    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.

    It's a list of non-targets (i.e. no-hopers and safe seats), not a list of targets. Boston is pretty safe, I'd have thought.
    UKIP are 20% clear in the polls, 4/7 to win it and the Tories think its so safe they don't have to bother trying?
    As I said, no onder they didn't take Solihull at the last GE.
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
    But Major was over 20 years ago...
    Conservatives leading the trend!
    Anyway, Conservatives in the lead so far this week - enjoy it while we can :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    After the 1992 election Neil Kinnock pointed out that if just 1,300 people had voted differently the Tories wouldn't have won overall control. The Tories got 11 seats more than they needed and 4 of those were won by less than 100 votes. The other 7 were won by less than 500 votes.

    Vale of Glamorgan: Tory maj 19 votes over Lab
    Bristol NW: Tory maj 45 votes over Lab
    Hayes & Harlington: Tory maj 53 over Lab
    Ayr: Tory maj 85 votes over Lab
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Anorak said:

    CD13 said:

    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.

    It's a list of non-targets (i.e. no-hopers and safe seats), not a list of targets. Boston is pretty safe, I'd have thought.
    Safe for who though ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015

    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    I don't think you can tell - if e.g. WNV (6) & DK (14) are both the result of rounding down then the poll is consistent with 34-33.
    Lab     Con    UKIP    LD        Green     sample exc. DK/ref
    402 413 170 90 86.912 1241.6 (1552*0.8)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    CD13 said:

    Surprising to see Boston on the list. OK. it's probably going Kipper but there is a 12,000 Tory majority, isn't there?

    And the Ukip candidate is only about twelve.

    It's a list of non-targets (i.e. no-hopers and safe seats), not a list of targets. Boston is pretty safe, I'd have thought.
    UKIP are 20% clear in the polls, 4/7 to win it and the Tories think its so safe they don't have to bother trying?
    Or they think that that it's so obviously gone that it's not worth trying?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Imo the only seat the Conservatives shouldn't really bother trying of the UKIP targets would be Clacton.
  • AndyJS said:

    After the 1992 election Neil Kinnock pointed out that if just 1,300 people had voted differently the Tories wouldn't have won overall control. The Tories got 11 seats more than they needed and 4 of those were won by less than 100 votes. The other 7 were won by less than 500 votes.

    Vale of Glamorgan: Tory maj 19 votes over Lab
    Bristol NW: Tory maj 45 votes over Lab
    Hayes & Harlington: Tory maj 53 over Lab
    Ayr: Tory maj 85 votes over Lab

    But with a wafer-thin majority, the 1992-7 Parliament would have been even more fractious than it was!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142

    Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

    Preaching to the choir of the teaching profession? The one that mainly voted Conservative last time, you mean? However much you admire his goals, it is a measure of Gove's political incompetence that he managed so quickly to alienate the profession which started out on his side.
    That would be a profession overwhelmingly members of left-supporting Unions, would it? Next you'll be telling me the tube-drivers are fervent supports of liberal Toryism.

    Luckily, far more people in this country are parents than teachers. Outcomes will prove (as soon as there is enough evidence, or so much evidence that it can no longer be ignored) moving state schools out of direct local council control helps children achieve.

    Giving Gove the Education job was clever, but moving Gove on was a masterstroke - allowed him to make the changes but diffuse the political ramifications.


  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
    But Major was over 20 years ago...
    Prior to Blair in '97, the last Labour majority was October 1974.
  • Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    I don't think you can tell - if e.g. WNV (6) & DK (14) are both the result of rounding down then the poll is consistent with 34-33.
    Lab     Con    UKIP    LD        Green     sample exc. DK/ref
    402 413 170 90 86.912 1241.6 (1552*0.8)
    Yes, multiply by e.g. 0.792 instead (e.g. WNV was 6.4 and DK was 14.4) and you'll get 34-33.

    You're trying to do too much with numbers that are already rounded.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    That chicken suit is going to be busy.....

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited February 2015
    Mr. Lennon, just about to add an update on my Cycling to Persia effort, so I'll add you shortly, if I haven't already. Don't forget to follow MorrisF1.

    Mr. K, *engagesshamelessself-promotion*, you might want to get the shortly(ish) to be discontinued first edition of Sir Edric's Temple [cheaper here than Amazon]: http://www.lulu.com/gb/en/shop/thaddeus-white/sir-edrics-temple/paperback/product-21306938.html

    It'll be re-released later this year by Tickety Boo Press (ie traditionally published), at which point the original edition will be suspended. Probably be in the second half of the year, mind.

    Whilst I don't buy first editions of fantasy, I do know what you mean about certain books being rather nice. I've got a 1922 edition of The Jungle Book, complete with (Hindu symbol) swastika on the front and many inside. They aren't old, but my Everyman editions of Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire are rather nice too.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Lennon, we already follow one another.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    Sunil, I found the same as you, but it is not the first time it has happened. Did not comment as am super-busy, but wondered if YG were using a new methodology for accounting for the DK and WNV etc. Any views?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Totally O/T, but I found this on the BBC.
    "EX-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who denies charges of pimping, has told a court in northern France that he took part in only a few rare sex parties.

    He said prosecutors had greatly exaggerated the frequency of his "licentious evenings". There had only been 12 in three years, he said."

    You'd have to have a heart of stone etc........

    @OldKingCole

    Surely that frequency of "licentious evenings" is not up to the PBers standard - thought it was supposed to be a weekly ritual for membership??
  • Financier said:

    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    Sunil, I found the same as you, but it is not the first time it has happened. Did not comment as am super-busy, but wondered if YG were using a new methodology for accounting for the DK and WNV etc. Any views?
    Hi Financier - see likely explanation below. Also worth remembering that the "weighted sample" numbers are rounded to integers as well (except the whole sample, which remains 1552). However rounding in WNV/DK is going to create an "issue" far more often.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I've said before the prices in R&S amaze me. Tolhurst was dreadful in the by election despite (or maybe because) the kitchen sink was thrown at it. UKIP were absolutely delighted she got the job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Mr. Lennon, just about to add an update on my Cycling to Persia effort, so I'll add you shortly, if I haven't already. Don't forget to follow MorrisF1.

    Mr. K, *engagesshamelessself-promotion*, you might want to get the shortly(ish) to be discontinued first edition of Sir Edric's Temple [cheaper here than Amazon]: http://www.lulu.com/gb/en/shop/thaddeus-white/sir-edrics-temple/paperback/product-21306938.html

    It'll be re-released later this year by Tickety Boo Press (ie traditionally published), at which point the original edition will be suspended. Probably be in the second half of the year, mind.

    Whilst I don't buy first editions of fantasy, I do know what you mean about certain books being rather nice. I've got a 1922 edition of The Jungle Book, complete with (Hindu symbol) swastika on the front and many inside. They aren't old, but my Everyman editions of Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire are rather nice too.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Lennon, we already follow one another.

    Cycling to Persia ?
  • Mortimer said:


    that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    .

    John Major will end up being the last Tory leader to win a majority for his party.
    With the death of SLAB, Blair maybe the last Labour Leader to win a majority.
    But Major was over 20 years ago...
    Prior to Blair in '97, the last Labour majority was October 1974.
    Ah, but Blair also won in 2001 and 2005, "only" ten years ago...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015

    I've said before the prices in R&S amaze me. Tolhurst was dreadful in the by election despite (or maybe because) the kitchen sink was thrown at it. UKIP were absolutely delighted she got the job.

    The prices in the by election were amazing too

    When people on here explain at length their reasons for backing the Tories, their over confidence last November, and the whooping of Tories hopefuls must be factored in

    #RememberRochester
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    Link for that please and then I'll answer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    Financier said:

    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    Sunil, I found the same as you, but it is not the first time it has happened. Did not comment as am super-busy, but wondered if YG were using a new methodology for accounting for the DK and WNV etc. Any views?

    Is it just me, or is last night's YouGov in fact Con 33, Lab 32 instead of the published Con 34, Lab 33?

    I don't think you can tell - if e.g. WNV (6) & DK (14) are both the result of rounding down then the poll is consistent with 34-33.
    Lab     Con    UKIP    LD        Green     sample exc. DK/ref
    402 413 170 90 86.912 1241.6 (1552*0.8)
    Yes, multiply by e.g. 0.792 instead (e.g. WNV was 6.4 and DK was 14.4) and you'll get 34-33.

    You're trying to do too much with numbers that are already rounded.
    I don't like the YG tables, especially as you have to estimate the number of Green respondents.

    BTW I make non-BPC member Ashcroft's LibDem score 10 instead of 9 (but the Tory/Lab/UKIP/Green percentages are all OK, as they were last week).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Financier said:

    Totally O/T, but I found this on the BBC.
    "EX-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who denies charges of pimping, has told a court in northern France that he took part in only a few rare sex parties.

    He said prosecutors had greatly exaggerated the frequency of his "licentious evenings". There had only been 12 in three years, he said."

    You'd have to have a heart of stone etc........

    @OldKingCole

    Surely that frequency of "licentious evenings" is not up to the PBers standard - thought it was supposed to be a weekly ritual for membership??
    Shhhh....! There's different tiers of membership....
  • Opinium's tables are the easiest to use, samples in bold, percentages in blue.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Finishing up watching the '92 election coverage this morning. Fascinating to see how overwhelmingly the low tax/safe pair of hands Tory strategy absolutely smashed the healthcare/education approach of Labour.

    Considering the red team have shot their bolt on the first already this year (polls show that those most concerned about NHS are Tory voters), and if they campaign on education they will only be preaching to the choir of the teaching profession, I'm even more convinced of that old adage: EdM will never be Prime Minister....

    Also quite interesting to see how engaging Archer was in the pundit's chair. Having grown up in the years he was considered a bit of a liability/embarrassment, it is quite a shock.

    Preaching to the choir of the teaching profession? The one that mainly voted Conservative last time, you mean? However much you admire his goals, it is a measure of Gove's political incompetence that he managed so quickly to alienate the profession which started out on his side.
    That would be a profession overwhelmingly members of left-supporting Unions, would it? Next you'll be telling me the tube-drivers are fervent supports of liberal Toryism.

    Luckily, far more people in this country are parents than teachers. Outcomes will prove (as soon as there is enough evidence, or so much evidence that it can no longer be ignored) moving state schools out of direct local council control helps children achieve.

    Giving Gove the Education job was clever, but moving Gove on was a masterstroke - allowed him to make the changes but diffuse the political ramifications.


    Yes, the unions are to the left of their members, who voted Conservative in 2010. The trick for Gove would have been to keep -- keep, not get -- them onside.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, there's a pedometer idea called Walking to Mordor, encouraging those into fantasy to walk themselves fit by covering the same distance as Frodo.

    In the back of Theodore Dodge's excellent Alexander biography there are a few appendices, including marching distances as Alexander invaded Persia. I had to take a break due to my left hip doing an admirably precise impression of being ninety, but I've been doing something similar, albeit with a historical basis. [I had planned to write blog articles when I hit each destination, but uncertainty over how regularly I'll be able to use the exercise bike has put me off doing that for now].
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 4m4 minutes ago
    Two SNP councillors quit the party amid a row over General Election candidate selection http://bbc.in/1IKVRsw
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    James Bond ‏@EnglandsTerrier 1h1 hour ago
    Benefit fraud.. I think 50% of Muslim Men and 75% of Muslim women claiming benefits is FRAUD..that is 1.2 BILLION per Month #BBCR2 #Bluehand

    I'll have to look into this later, as I have to go out in 20 mins.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    FRANCE - PHOTOS: 20 cars vandalized with the word "Juif" ("Jew") in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, suspect held. pic.twitter.com/9IwMKvLiNJ

    — Israel News Feed (@IsraelHatzolah) February 10, 2015

    No guesses for whom the culprit ma be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited February 2015
    Ha, I like this (ab)use of language:
    "However, the UK, Republic of Ireland and Denmark have been given until May 2017 to adopt the law, because they had opted out of an earlier version."

    So, opting out mean we get a little bit of a delay before we sign up to the same legislation with a new font and an extra appendix? Gosh.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31356381

    Edited to change 'forced', which was accidentally misleading.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Bite The Ballot ‏@BiteTheBallot 14m14 minutes ago
    We're going to be sitting down and filming with @jackduffin from @UKIP/ @YIofficial tomorrow. Any questions you might want answered?
  • MikeK said:

    FRANCE - PHOTOS: 20 cars vandalized with the word "Juif" ("Jew") in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, suspect held. pic.twitter.com/9IwMKvLiNJ

    — Israel News Feed (@IsraelHatzolah) February 10, 2015

    No guesses for whom the culprit ma be.
    French?
  • MikeK said:

    James Bond ‏@EnglandsTerrier 1h1 hour ago
    Benefit fraud.. I think 50% of Muslim Men and 75% of Muslim women claiming benefits is FRAUD..that is 1.2 BILLION per Month #BBCR2 #Bluehand

    I'll have to look into this later, as I have to go out in 20 mins.

    I think someone was saying MikeK is a convicted sex offender, but I don't have time to check, so I thought I may as well go and post the unsourced claim on a random website.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    i24news_EN ‏@i24news_EN 22m22 minutes ago
    #BREAKING - #Russia-#Egypt ties: Moscow and Cairo sign preliminary agreement to build nuclear power plant in Egypt
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    MikeK said:

    FRANCE - PHOTOS: 20 cars vandalized with the word "Juif" ("Jew") in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, suspect held. pic.twitter.com/9IwMKvLiNJ

    — Israel News Feed (@IsraelHatzolah) February 10, 2015

    No guesses for whom the culprit ma be.
    French?


    only nominally
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    State Control ‏@State_Control 24m24 minutes ago
    Liberals condemn lawful gun ownership yet defend this:
    #Feminist Aborts Baby Because It's A Boy:
    http://huff.to/1y60HFq
    #LeftyCulture
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    MikeK said:

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 4m4 minutes ago
    Two SNP councillors quit the party amid a row over General Election candidate selection http://bbc.in/1IKVRsw

    "The departures come as the Labour administration in North Lanarkshire Council continues to be riven with internal feuding, sparked by a controversial housing contract but with origins stretching back decades"

    Seems like there's a bit of dissent in the air over both the main contenders in that part of the world, so I'll take it as a score draw.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MikeK

    We're going to be sitting down and filming with @jackduffin from @UKIP/ @YIofficial tomorrow. Any questions you might want answered?'

    Yes, does he think he will save his deposit?
  • MikeK said:

    FRANCE - PHOTOS: 20 cars vandalized with the word "Juif" ("Jew") in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, suspect held. pic.twitter.com/9IwMKvLiNJ

    — Israel News Feed (@IsraelHatzolah) February 10, 2015

    No guesses for whom the culprit ma be.
    French?


    From the context I was assuming he meant Dominique Strausse-Kahn.
  • MikeK said:

    State Control ‏@State_Control 24m24 minutes ago
    Liberals condemn lawful gun ownership yet defend this:
    #Feminist Aborts Baby Because It's A Boy:
    http://huff.to/1y60HFq
    #LeftyCulture

    Can't see anyone defending it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Most of the SNP selections have been on the young side. I'm guessing the old guard are a bit miffed at being passed over.
    MikeK said:

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 4m4 minutes ago
    Two SNP councillors quit the party amid a row over General Election candidate selection http://bbc.in/1IKVRsw

  • Mr. Pulpstar, there's a pedometer idea called Walking to Mordor, encouraging those into fantasy to walk themselves fit by covering the same distance as Frodo.

    In the back of Theodore Dodge's excellent Alexander biography there are a few appendices, including marching distances as Alexander invaded Persia. I had to take a break due to my left hip doing an admirably precise impression of being ninety, but I've been doing something similar, albeit with a historical basis. [I had planned to write blog articles when I hit each destination, but uncertainty over how regularly I'll be able to use the exercise bike has put me off doing that for now].

    I did something like that for my daughter to encourage her to walk to school. She walked from Exeter to Aberdeen, and then wisely decided to ride a bicycle instead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    AndyJS said:

    Most of the SNP selections have been on the young side. I'm guessing the old guard are a bit miffed at being passed over.

    MikeK said:

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 4m4 minutes ago
    Two SNP councillors quit the party amid a row over General Election candidate selection http://bbc.in/1IKVRsw

    Especially now a raft of extraordinarily safe Labour fiefdoms are now in play.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    MikeK said:

    FRANCE - PHOTOS: 20 cars vandalized with the word "Juif" ("Jew") in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, suspect held. pic.twitter.com/9IwMKvLiNJ

    — Israel News Feed (@IsraelHatzolah) February 10, 2015

    No guesses for whom the culprit ma be.
    French?


    I have a friend from France staying at the moment. He says that people there are talking about La Fracture - between reason on the one side and obscurantism on the other - bigots - and that any further toleration of bigotry is contrary to the principles of France.

    Being French (or British, come to that) means - or should mean - more than simply holding a French (or British) passport.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @logical_song
    This comment underneath makes a pertinent point.

    Jenni @lifeofjennibeck

    Misandry means hatred of men. Feminism means equality of genders. "Feminist Has Abortion Because Child Was a Boy" NO. She is a misandrist
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 - I think the US are not just applying pressure on Greece, but they are applying pressure on the EMU countries as well to come up with a deal. Also, Merkel's peace plan with Russia has gone down so poorly with the Whitehouse that many now don't think that Germany can be trusted to have primacy within the EU and want the UK to take more leading role again.

    Not their decision to make.
  • MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    Link for that please and then I'll answer.
    On Monday, a Channel 4 spokesman confirmed that “an invitation to be interviewed was offered to Nigel Farage which was not taken up”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/09/nigel-farage-jeremy-paxman-interview-channel-4-ukip
  • Ha, I like this (ab)use of language:
    "However, the UK, Republic of Ireland and Denmark have been given until May 2017 to adopt the law, because they had opted out of an earlier version."

    So, opting out mean we get a little bit of a delay before we sign up to the same legislation with a new font and an extra appendix? Gosh.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31356381

    Edited to change 'forced', which was accidentally misleading.

    From the article:

    "The UK Conservative and Labour groups in Strasbourg support the new law."

    Sounds like we've decided it was a mistake to have opted out of the previous law, or that we like the changes to the existing law that are being adopted.

    What is the problem with enforcing traffic laws on foreigners?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    Link for that please and then I'll answer.
    On Monday, a Channel 4 spokesman confirmed that “an invitation to be interviewed was offered to Nigel Farage which was not taken up”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/09/nigel-farage-jeremy-paxman-interview-channel-4-ukip
    "But the idea has now been dropped after Channel 4 first cancelled it, before resurrecting it with Jon Snow as the mooted interviewer – only to have Ukip refuse the second invitation."

    So he didn't bottle out of a one to one interview with Paxman, which makes Scott P, and implicitly you, wrong

    Quelle surprise
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,499
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    Because he is talking through his ARSE
  • MikeK said:

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 4m4 minutes ago
    Two SNP councillors quit the party amid a row over General Election candidate selection http://bbc.in/1IKVRsw

    Indiscipline creeping in to the previously timid and regimented SNP ranks. This wouldn't have happened under the iron hand of the fat one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,499
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    A couple of interesting snippets from todays outpouring from my ARSE.

    Two of the four LibDem new holds were majorities of 3 votes and 57 votes and one of the new SNP gains was 12 votes.

    o_O How on earth can you have it that exact :D
    Because JackW, while doing some good work, is also a prime Scots bullshitter.
    Bullshitter I agree , Scots you are really dreaming on , about as Scottish as whiskey
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    Link for that please and then I'll answer.
    On Monday, a Channel 4 spokesman confirmed that “an invitation to be interviewed was offered to Nigel Farage which was not taken up”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/09/nigel-farage-jeremy-paxman-interview-channel-4-ukip
    "But the idea has now been dropped after Channel 4 first cancelled it, before resurrecting it with Jon Snow as the mooted interviewer – only to have Ukip refuse the second invitation."

    So he didn't bottle out of a one to one interview with Paxman, which makes Scott P, and implicitly you, wrong

    Quelle surprise
    So Farage actually bottled out of an 'easier' interview with Jon Snow? Ha Ha.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm looking forward to Paxman presenting Channel 4's election night programme. Neither he nor Channel 4 have ever done it before.

    Apparently Nige has bottled out of a one-on-one interview with Mr Paxman
    Link for that please and then I'll answer.
    On Monday, a Channel 4 spokesman confirmed that “an invitation to be interviewed was offered to Nigel Farage which was not taken up”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/09/nigel-farage-jeremy-paxman-interview-channel-4-ukip
    "But the idea has now been dropped after Channel 4 first cancelled it, before resurrecting it with Jon Snow as the mooted interviewer – only to have Ukip refuse the second invitation."

    So he didn't bottle out of a one to one interview with Paxman, which makes Scott P, and implicitly you, wrong

    Quelle surprise
    You can understand Farage bottling a grilling from Paxman. But Snow?!? He must be well frit....
This discussion has been closed.