Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks."
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Look on the bright side. By the end of the month Trump may be chained up in a Chinese prison awaiting trial for not having put Chinese interests first.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Interview with Mehdi Hasan about Trump and co. A rare voice of reason which sometimes makes you smile
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Sadly it's old guys with delusions of grandeur who are causing all the problems atm. It's a strong argument for one's later years being spent on hobbies and quiet contemplation.
By the end of 2026: Starmer and Badenoch still in place. Reform no longer in a clear lead in the polls. Reform disappointed with the dearth of defections.
By general election: Reform to come second or third in votes and seats.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Look on the bright side. By the end of the month Trump may be chained up in a Chinese prison awaiting trial for not having put Chinese interests first.
Could the Americans kidnap Xi, and in retaliation the Chinese take Trump, Vance and Johnson?
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Not really.
One of the big immediate problems in Iraq 2003 was that the invading forces created a huge power vacuum by telling all the police, etc, that the police force was simply abolished.
In Venezuela the state is still operating. The vice President has taken over, there's no power vacuum.
It's almost precisely the opposite of Iraq 2003. There are genuinely no US tanks in Caracas.
So it's really more like what would have happened in Iraq if there had been carbon copy of Saddam - only pro-American - in the wings, ready to continue the dictatorship?
The funny thing is, though, that for some reason pro-American dictatorships aren't necessarily any more popular than the other kinds.
No, because it’s unclear how pro-American Rodríguez is!
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
But have they found a bar-steward who will agree to be their bar-steward? So far, the indications are that they have not.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says US action in Venezuela was 'morally' the right thing to do.
She tells @bbcnickrobinson nations 'go through the motions' of rules-based order, but 'the world has changed'.
She is correct that the world has changed. She can make an argument that removing Maduro was a moral thing to do (he appears to be a bad man to the detriment of his electorate) but she doesn't appear to be doing so. Instead she is noting that Trump has created a "might makes right" world and is approving of it. I disapprove of her stance on this. I think that i) she is constitutionally incapable of believing Trump can do bad things, and that ii) this shows poor judgement on her part.
It's remarkably naive to assert that this hasn't always been the case. What do you think the Arab Spring was if not the US asserting its might and attempting to re-order the world in its favour? I actually find this Maduro toppling quite refreshing. Trump and his Government have called Maduro an evil drug lord, but it is a token effort, because deep down, they don't care what we think.
We haven't had the endless drum beat of war that we usually have softening us up for these things - breathless wall-to-wall coverage of Maduro's human rights abuses, thunderous newspaper editorials demanding that something be done, colour protests against his evil regime, his name being shortened (evil dictators don't get two names) and the eventual US bombing with the UK in tow (at significant cost to us) to lend the whole thing some dubious legitimacy.
Instead we've just had the US getting rid of him because they didn't like him and wanted access to the resources he controlled. I have not been asked to acquiesce. I have not been asked to hate Maduro when I know little about him and care less. We can debate Maduro here without being called 'Maduro's little helper' etc. I thank Trump for that.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Yep. It's not a deterrent, but an encouragement.
People are determined to impute deep geopolitical nous to Donald Trump that simply is not there. It will dawn eventually.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Not really.
One of the big immediate problems in Iraq 2003 was that the invading forces created a huge power vacuum by telling all the police, etc, that the police force was simply abolished.
In Venezuela the state is still operating. The vice President has taken over, there's no power vacuum.
It's almost precisely the opposite of Iraq 2003. There are genuinely no US tanks in Caracas.
Stand back, however, and the uncertainty over how this will actually pan out is similar, and may not necessarily play out to the mango Mussolini’s advantage
Sure. I'm not saying that it is well-conceived, or that it will turn out to be a success, or anything like that.
I just don't think that there's a parallel with Iraq 2003.
There's a whole bunch of different ways in which it can go wrong.
It really isn’t like Iraq 2003. It’s not like Libya either. It’s more like the sort of US-backed coups they used to indulge in on the South American continent, the Caribbean and Central America during the Cold War. Some of those “worked”, some didn’t. But even those are not precise analogues.
Rather than reaching for parallels and pattern matching, better to look at the evidence in front of us. A very well executed decapitation; a rather muddled plan for the aftermath.
It’s more like the sort of US-backed coups they used to indulge in on the South American continent during the Cold War, but without the competence and planning. They haven’t installed a rival party loyal to the US. They’ve elevated a Maduro loyalist who may be a little bit more pragmatic, and while doing that, the President has randomly said all sorts of unhinged nonsense that may or may not bite them in the ass.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Yep. It's not a deterrent, but an encouragement.
People are determined to impute deep geopolitical nous to Donald Trump that simply is not there. It will dawn eventually.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Not really.
One of the big immediate problems in Iraq 2003 was that the invading forces created a huge power vacuum by telling all the police, etc, that the police force was simply abolished.
In Venezuela the state is still operating. The vice President has taken over, there's no power vacuum.
It's almost precisely the opposite of Iraq 2003. There are genuinely no US tanks in Caracas.
Stand back, however, and the uncertainty over how this will actually pan out is similar, and may not necessarily play out to the mango Mussolini’s advantage
Sure. I'm not saying that it is well-conceived, or that it will turn out to be a success, or anything like that.
I just don't think that there's a parallel with Iraq 2003.
There's a whole bunch of different ways in which it can go wrong.
It really isn’t like Iraq 2003. It’s not like Libya either. It’s more like the sort of US-backed coups they used to indulge in on the South American continent, the Caribbean and Central America during the Cold War. Some of those “worked”, some didn’t. But even those are not precise analogues.
Rather than reaching for parallels and pattern matching, better to look at the evidence in front of us. A very well executed decapitation; a rather muddled plan for the aftermath.
It's a bit early to call it.
So far as I can see all thats been done is create a promotion opportunity.
I think this is from 2023 (although it isn't very clear).
"Going cashless It’s not in the interests of the ordinary person but it’s not a conspiracy either. A cashless society is a system run amok Brett Scott"
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
Ye of little faith. Of course it will work. How can China even contemplate attacking Taiwan when this rejuvenated America has shown both the willingness and capability to abduct the president of Venezuela?
Yep. It's not a deterrent, but an encouragement.
People are determined to impute deep geopolitical nous to Donald Trump that simply is not there. It will dawn eventually.
He is as thick as two 4x2's
Not thick. Ignorant, mendacious and, above all, grotesquely narcissistic. Would be easier if he was, just, thick.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Henry VIII was supposedly very anxious about how things would turn out after he was gone. Imagine how he might react to a brief overview of English history in the centuries that followed!
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
sorry to read this news Big_G. Condolences. Not a good start to 2026 at all.
His prefrontal cortex is degenerating. He has lost the ability to judge social norms and inhibit inappropriate decision-making or aggressive impulses. He just blurts it out. It's sign of early dementia.
My mother was a very classy lady. Very respectable. But in her early nineties, when I was out walking with her, would exclaim in a loud voice "that's a very fat lady" pointing at some poor lady. She had dementia that affected her pre-frontal cortex and removed her ability to control what she said or did. She was like a child. But she didn't have the power of Trump. Just me at her side.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Henry VIII was supposedly very anxious about how things would turn out after he was gone. Imagine how he might react to a brief overview of English history in the centuries that followed!
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks."
Quote possibly Russian backed.
It's not as though they haven't explicitly stated the intention to stage such actions against Germany.
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Henry VIII was supposedly very anxious about how things would turn out after he was gone. Imagine how he might react to a brief overview of English history in the centuries that followed!
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.
He'd be very pleased with his daughter Elizabeth.
Perhaps also the CoE.
He couldn't even dream of the scale of the British Empire.
Sir Keir did get one recent call right; banning Maccabi Tel Aviv fans for the Aston Villa game was wrong, and now it has been shown that the Police only caved in because elements of the Birmingham Islamic community were gearing up for armed violence
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Condolences Big_G, Mrs P. lost her father [93] the week before Christmas and although it was not unexpected his parting leaves a terrible gap for her.
Regarding the future your grandchildren will face, take heart, surely every period of history has faced bleak prospects but somehow it seldom turns out as appears likely. Just looking at the 20th century, decade by decade illustrates this - the global and national future can hardly have appeared positive to the older generation at the time your wife was born.
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Henry VIII was supposedly very anxious about how things would turn out after he was gone. Imagine how he might react to a brief overview of English history in the centuries that followed!
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.
He'd be very pleased with his daughter Elizabeth.
Perhaps also the CoE.
He couldn't even dream of the scale of the British Empire.
By the end of 2026: Starmer and Badenoch still in place. Reform no longer in a clear lead in the polls. Reform disappointed with the dearth of defections.
By general election: Reform to come second or third in votes and seats.
His prefrontal cortex is degenerating. He has lost the ability to judge social norms and inhibit inappropriate decision-making or aggressive impulses. He just blurts it out. It's sign of early dementia.
My mother was a very classy lady. Very respectable. But in her early nineties, when I was out walking with her, would exclaim in a loud voice "that's a very fat lady" pointing at some poor lady. She had dementia that affected her pre-frontal cortex and removed her ability to control what she said or did. She was like a child. But she didn't have the power of Trump. Just me at her side.
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
Do you know the vote shares at the last GE?
Good question, sir.
If we put those numbers against the current Savanta numbers:
Labour -12 Reform +10 Conservatives -4 Liberal Democrat: +2 Greens: +8 Others: -4
Difficult start to the year for our family having lost 2 members [89 & 72] in the last 24 hours and another one [84] just before Christmas
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
Henry VIII was supposedly very anxious about how things would turn out after he was gone. Imagine how he might react to a brief overview of English history in the centuries that followed!
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.
He'd be very pleased with his daughter Elizabeth.
Perhaps also the CoE.
Not so sure about the hunting laws.
Well yes. The Elizabethan laws against the hunting of lawyers and clerics has always been seen as a mis-step. Still to be reversed too!
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
In general things progress slower than expected, then much faster. It's S shaped.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
As there is only one actual and an infinity of possible futures, to be right occasionally is quite an effort.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Not really.
One of the big immediate problems in Iraq 2003 was that the invading forces created a huge power vacuum by telling all the police, etc, that the police force was simply abolished.
In Venezuela the state is still operating. The vice President has taken over, there's no power vacuum.
It's almost precisely the opposite of Iraq 2003. There are genuinely no US tanks in Caracas.
It's much closer to Solozzo trying to kill Don Corleone because he thought he could do business with Sonny.
Trump believes he can do business with the new leaders of the regime, he doesn't give a flying fuck about restoring democracy in Venezuela. By removing Maduro he believes (probably correctly) that this this reopens the door for US involvement in Venezuelan oil extraction. If this leads to a democratic revolution then that's just a side effect, not the intention.
Also he's shown that dictators who are opposed to US involvement in Latin America aren't safe from US Blackhawks which is in itself a game changer for the region. I expect ty dictators will all begin to fall in line within the next few months but very little will change for the people. They'll just be living under a US friendly dictator who witholds liberty just the same as when they were aligned to China or Russia.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
As there is only one actual and an infinity of possible futures, to be right occasionally is quite an effort.
Or a brain the size of Leondamus?
Who else would have been able to predict the invasion of body-probing Aliens intent on stealing the technology behind What3Words?
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
In general things progress slower than expected, then much faster. It's S shaped.
No, no - that's your perception of things - when you're a wee person of course you don't see much, and when you're crumbly less so too. Things happen at a constant rate. Omnium's first law! But you know that leads us to 'What is time?' and I suspect I'll find out if I continue
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
In general things progress slower than expected, then much faster. It's S shaped.
No, no - that's your perception of things - when you're a wee person of course you don't see much, and when you're crumbly less so too. Things happen at a constant rate. Omnium's first law! But you know that leads us to 'What is time?' and I suspect I'll find out if I continue
Where's your proof that thingshappenataconstant r a t e?
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
Well,I was in the relegation zone last year. My expectation is the same this year.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
During the 2020 Presidential election there was a guy on here @Alasdair who predicted a Biden win when Trump was way ahead and wanted the count stopped. @Alasdair operated a count update service predicting when Biden would overtake Trump, he was very accurate. It was all very exciting.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Do also work out the average prediction for each of the metrics, and treat that as an entry, just to test the theory that a crowd of idiots can be wiser than any individual idiot considered alone?
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
One of the joys of switching off PB early evening and then catching up the next morning from where you left off is having listened to the news that morning and reading comments overnight about how x or y are happening, about to happen imminently etc etc and finding nothing of the sort has.
I am equally guilty of doing it myself and I suppose we just get into a conversation or debate on here and just post our conclusions confidently at that moment.
Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks."
Quote possibly Russian backed.
It's not as though they haven't explicitly stated the intention to stage such actions against Germany.
Germany should send 50 Taurus missiles to UKraine. Just in case.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
In general things progress slower than expected, then much faster. It's S shaped.
No, no - that's your perception of things - when you're a wee person of course you don't see much, and when you're crumbly less so too. Things happen at a constant rate. Omnium's first law! But you know that leads us to 'What is time?' and I suspect I'll find out if I continue
Where's your proof that thingshappenataconstant r a t e?
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Which reminds me I need to but the prize for the winner.
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
What a glorious poll! It is unexpected to apparently see Reform and Conservative voters going Green and LD.
I think it’s going to be difficult for parties to target their effort sensibly. They could easily be too timid in targeting seats and lose out, or too ambitious and spread their effort too thin. I’m in Camden, where the Greens have 1 councillor, in my ward, a 3-member ward. So, OK, they’ll get three here and there was another ward they did quite well in last time, so they’ll get those 3. But where do they put their effort next? There are lots of wards where they were a distant second or third last time that they *might* win, but how many should they go for?
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
If the extra LD voters and extra Green voters are intelligently geographically distributed between Boroughs and wards, we could be in for a fun night….
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
I forgot to mention Corbyn. Like Blair before him Starmer was a traitor to the left for winning an election when their preference is perennial opposition and the opportunity to carp on about the unfairness of successive Tory governments that they furnished with power.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Which reminds me I need to but the prize for the winner.
PS - I've sent you a message.
Thanks responded now - sorry for the delay, I've been focusing on getting my money's worth out of the NHS.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
I forgot to mention Corbyn. Like Blair before him Starmer was a traitor to the left for winning an election when their preference is perennial opposition and the opportunity to carp on about the unfairness of successive Tory governments that they furnished with power.
Fortunately for the left, Your Party are doing everything they can to make sure that they will never leave opposition.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
The Iowa rogue poll was a real low here too.
Poor WilliamGlenn took far more abuse than just being called an apologist, and he was right about Trump and Harris.
But, yes, it’s very much a PB purity thing. If you’re not bashing Trump 24-7 you’re clearly a fan of his. I’ve been accused by our resident Incel of being a Trump devotee. I think Trump’s a twat.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
I forgot to mention Corbyn. Like Blair before him Starmer was a traitor to the left for winning an election when their preference is perennial opposition and the opportunity to carp on about the unfairness of successive Tory governments that they furnished with power.
Fortunately for the left, Your Party are doing everything they can to make sure that they will never leave opposition.
Surely it is all over for YourParty before it’s begun. The lack of candidates in May is quite telling.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
You may be right. I think the disbelief that someone as brazen as Trump was electable fooled a lot of us including US commentators in 2016 ( although Michael Moore got it right in 2016, but not in 2024) although all the mood music in 2024 suggested Trump was quite remarkably, unassailable.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
Starmer is just getting the same sort of media treatment Boris, Truss and Sunak got and should Farage or Badenoch become PM they’d get the same too. It’s all about polar extremes and driving engagement,
Starmer had a far kinder press before the 24 election, as did Reeves.
Much will depend on the NEV in May's local elections. Even if Reform win if the Tories beat Labour then Starmer will likely go. If Labour beat the Tories though (coupled with some gains from the SNP at Holyrood on the swing from SNP to Labour since 2021) then it Sir Keir will likely survive and it will be Kemi going
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
My only one I remember is 1-1 draw in the Ashes. So I'm not hopeful.
By the end of 2026: Starmer and Badenoch still in place. Reform no longer in a clear lead in the polls. Reform disappointed with the dearth of defections.
By general election: Reform to come second or third in votes and seats.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
The goal is not to deter China. Trump doesn't give two cents for Taiwan. And his actions - and words in terms of 'spheres of influence' will encourage China not deter them.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
The Iowa rogue poll was a real low here too.
Poor WilliamGlenn took far more abuse than just being called an apologist, and he was right about Trump and Harris.
But, yes, it’s very much a PB purity thing. If you’re not bashing Trump 24-7 you’re clearly a fan of his. I’ve been accused by our resident Incel of being a Trump devotee. I think Trump’s a twat.
I wasn't here in 2016, I was on a several year sabbatical, so I can't comment on @williamglenn and his 2016 performance and the reaction to it. I was back for the 2017 election and @williamglenn was one of the best and most enthusiastic posters for a second EU Referendum. By 2020 and 24 he liked to troll anxious Democrat followers. He got it wrong in 2020 but very right in 2024.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
Well,I was in the relegation zone last year. My expectation is the same this year.
I never even bother to enter the competition, for the very good reason that I'm hopeless at prediction.
By the end of 2026: Starmer and Badenoch still in place. Reform no longer in a clear lead in the polls. Reform disappointed with the dearth of defections.
By general election: Reform to come second or third in votes and seats.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
The Iowa rogue poll was a real low here too.
Poor WilliamGlenn took far more abuse than just being called an apologist, and he was right about Trump and Harris.
But, yes, it’s very much a PB purity thing. If you’re not bashing Trump 24-7 you’re clearly a fan of his. I’ve been accused by our resident Incel of being a Trump devotee. I think Trump’s a twat.
I wasn't here in 2016, I was on a several year sabbatical, so I can't comment on @williamglenn and his 2016 performance and the reaction to it. I was back for the 2017 election and @williamglenn was one of the best and most enthusiastic posters for a second EU Referendum. By 2020 and 24 he liked to troll anxious Democrat followers. He got it wrong in 2020 but very right in 2024.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
Well,I was in the relegation zone last year. My expectation is the same this year.
I never even bother to enter the competition, for the very good reason that I'm hopeless at prediction.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
You may be right. I think the disbelief that someone as brazen as Trump was electable fooled a lot of us including US commentators in 2016 ( although Michael Moore got it right in 2016, but not in 2024) although all the mood music in 2024 suggested Trump was quite remarkably, unassailable.
You mentioned Stephen Miller this morning in a not particularly flattering light!
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
I don't hate him. I'm just very disappointed at Labour's lack of preparation for and impact in office.
I give Starmer a strong chance of surviving this year but far less chance of leading into the election. The value exit bets are 27/28 imo.
Starmer is almost into his seventh year (in position six years from April) of absolute hatred from the hostile media. He was hated as Shadow Brexit Secretary (when Brexit was popular). He was despised for calling out Johnson during COVID (when Johnson was popular) and he won a landslide on a small percentage of the vote and since then his comms have been awful and it has been very much continuity Sunak, which isn't what we voted for.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
Not just that.
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
Starmer is just getting the same sort of media treatment Boris, Truss and Sunak got and should Farage or Badenoch become PM they’d get the same too. It’s all about polar extremes and driving engagement,
Starmer had a far kinder press before the 24 election, as did Reeves.
That is patently untrue. Mrs May got a rough ride, Sunak got a rough ride as did Starmer. The press and media were very supportive of Johnson and Truss (until they both unravelled). Probably 1 in 20 Starmer-negative stories in the Mail, Telegraph and GBNews have had any validity. Reeves has never been liked, but not with as much enthusiastic hatred as they had for Dodds.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
I don't think it was quite that bad. I think I was sceptical of Harris' chances and I don't recall being denounced as a Trump apologist.
There was definitely a lot of wishful thinking and motivated reasoning though.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
I'd find it personally helpful if you don't publish the results on here. Could you just notify the winner(s) privately? We don't need a league table. Thanks.
Yes, I can see from the provisional results why you might.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
Well,I was in the relegation zone last year. My expectation is the same this year.
Sorry @Taz your entry was excluded as you were relegated last year.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Do also work out the average prediction for each of the metrics, and treat that as an entry, just to test the theory that a crowd of idiots can be wiser than any individual idiot considered alone?
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
You may be right. I think the disbelief that someone as brazen as Trump was electable fooled a lot of us including US commentators in 2016 ( although Michael Moore got it right in 2016, but not in 2024) although all the mood music in 2024 suggested Trump was quite remarkably, unassailable.
You mentioned Stephen Miller this morning in a not particularly flattering light!
We were discussing the Jake Tapper interview earlier. The man is dangerously bonkers and not in a good way. If you are not scared shitless by the white supremacist Stephen Miller you really should be. This man is absolutely unhinged and has the ear of the Leader of the Free World, some say he's driving Trump.
Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks."
Funny how Sky and BBC aren't particularly reporting this.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
You may be right. I think the disbelief that someone as brazen as Trump was electable fooled a lot of us including US commentators in 2016 ( although Michael Moore got it right in 2016, but not in 2024) although all the mood music in 2024 suggested Trump was quite remarkably, unassailable.
You mentioned Stephen Miller this morning in a not particularly flattering light!
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
I don't think it was quite that bad. I think I was sceptical of Harris' chances and I don't recall being denounced as a Trump apologist.
There was definitely a lot of wishful thinking and motivated reasoning though.
I think I've been on PB since about 2008/2009 (lurking at first) and from what I've learned, it seems things mostly don't happen.
Most things predicted on PB never happen. I think though you'll find that things in general happen at a pretty constant rate. Perhaps at an entirely constant rate. And if there's any variation it could be a big thing. But we don't know what big means. Or what 'means' means.
We're certainly not very good on PB at predicting what will happen, if the results of the 2025 PB Prediction Competition* are anything to go by.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Will @rcs1000 predicting an 80 seat majority for Johnson in 2019 ever be surpassed? I suspect it was always going to be downhill from there.
I got the number of Tory seats exactly right fwiw. I also think Robert's early call of the 2016 US election was the single most profitable betting night a lot of us had. I ended up with a five figure profit on the night and a 4 figure one overall after accounting for losses elsewhere.
All those predicting that Currygate would be an event to see off Starmer was a low prediction point.
Maybe, I think the constant ramping of Harris and the "trust the polls" narrative was probably the worst. We got to the point where anyone suggesting that Trump might be in the race and had a solid chance of winning was labelled a Trump apologist.
I don't think it was quite that bad. I think I was sceptical of Harris' chances and I don't recall being denounced as a Trump apologist.
There was definitely a lot of wishful thinking and motivated reasoning though.
It was quite plain (or ought to have been), that early voting numbers were looking good for Trump.
Re. Venezuela, this week is equivalent to the days when the statue of Saddam was torn down in Baghdad, to the cheers of the happy crowd, with Bush hubristically proclaiming ‘job done’. What happened thereafter is a lesson that Trump either hasn’t learned or thinks he can dodge.
Based on that comparison, Trump is already well ahead. The statue was torn down on April 9, 2003 but Saddam Hussein wasn't captured until December 13.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
I look at the last few days and conclude the Americans have indeed learnt the lessons of Iraq. Don’t get bogged down in a futile attempt to embed democracy. Don’t sack the ~million people who keep the country going. And find a bar-steward who will agree to be your bar-steward.
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
The goal is not to deter China. Trump doesn't give two cents for Taiwan. And his actions - and words in terms of 'spheres of influence' will encourage China not deter them.
I think his Techbro Svengalis may persuade Trump to give 2c for the unique technology manufacturing in Taiwan, at least until it has been reproduced in Alamabama or Nevada or wherever.
Comments
Perhaps both.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRGjP_KznSI
And the rest of us could ROFL.
We haven't had the endless drum beat of war that we usually have softening us up for these things - breathless wall-to-wall coverage of Maduro's human rights abuses, thunderous newspaper editorials demanding that something be done, colour protests against his evil regime, his name being shortened (evil dictators don't get two names) and the eventual US bombing with the UK in tow (at significant cost to us) to lend the whole thing some dubious legitimacy.
Instead we've just had the US getting rid of him because they didn't like him and wanted access to the resources he controlled. I have not been asked to acquiesce. I have not been asked to hate Maduro when I know little about him and care less. We can debate Maduro here without being called 'Maduro's little helper' etc. I thank Trump for that.
So far as I can see all thats been done is create a promotion opportunity.
"Going cashless
It’s not in the interests of the ordinary person but it’s not a conspiracy either. A cashless society is a system run amok
Brett Scott"
https://aeon.co/essays/going-cashless-is-a-bad-idea-but-its-not-a-conspiracy
Perhaps also the CoE.
My mother was a very classy lady. Very respectable. But in her early nineties, when I was out walking with her, would exclaim in a loud voice "that's a very fat lady" pointing at some poor lady. She had dementia that affected her pre-frontal cortex and removed her ability to control what she said or did. She was like a child. But she didn't have the power of Trump. Just me at her side.
Starmer hasn't overseen anything criminally disgusting or borderline traitorous and like one of his recent predecessors ( KGB parties) and the man leading in the polls ( friendship with Gill) he hasn't bet the nation on a hunch to protect the Tory Party like another, and whilst the country is bumping along the bottom, his government haven't crashed the economy in 49 days like Liz Truss, and he has towed a solid statemanlike line with Trump and wth Europe, yet he is vilified considerably more than any of them. Take the post Venezuela-heist, Starmer has trodden a diplomatic line, and what else can he do under the circumstances? Today's clarification over Greenland from European leaders was welcome but in the Tory media this has not abated his claimed equivocation. Yet Badenoch has made an absolute howler today which goes unpunished.
And for all that Starmer needs to go.
It's not as though they haven't explicitly stated the intention to stage such actions against Germany.
We have a poll to discuss and what's even better, it's a London only poll....
🌹 LAB: 31% (-1)
➡️ REF: 19% (-4)
🟢 GRN: 18% (+8)
🌳 CON: 17% (-3)
🔶 LDEM: 13% (+2)
Polling by Savanta - fieldwork 13th - 21st December, changes from a poll whose fieldwork was 31st October - 7th November.
Poor poll for Reform and the Conservatives and a huge poll for the Greens who on these numbers are going to challenge Labour strongly in Inner London (places like Hackney and Lewisham).
Not sure what these shares, if repeated in a GE, would mean for seats though I imagine not good for either Labour or the Conservatives.
Sorry, here they are
Regarding the future your grandchildren will face, take heart, surely every period of history has faced bleak prospects but somehow it seldom turns out as appears likely. Just looking at the 20th century, decade by decade illustrates this - the global and national future can hardly have appeared positive to the older generation at the time your wife was born.
None of them were expected but at our ages it is life
If we put those numbers against the current Savanta numbers:
Labour -12
Reform +10
Conservatives -4
Liberal Democrat: +2
Greens: +8
Others: -4
Trump believes he can do business with the new leaders of the regime, he doesn't give a flying fuck about restoring democracy in Venezuela. By removing Maduro he believes (probably correctly) that this this reopens the door for US involvement in Venezuelan oil extraction. If this leads to a democratic revolution then that's just a side effect, not the intention.
Also he's shown that dictators who are opposed to US involvement in Latin America aren't safe from US Blackhawks which is in itself a game changer for the region. I expect ty dictators will all begin to fall in line within the next few months but very little will change for the people. They'll just be living under a US friendly dictator who witholds liberty just the same as when they were aligned to China or Russia.
(*Results which I hope to publish in the next week or so once the last result is in and I have time to collate the numbers.)
Who else would have been able to predict the invasion of body-probing Aliens intent on stealing the technology behind What3Words?
Thanks.
Though rest assured you are going to be well above that duffer @Benpointer in the published final table.
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/2008590548798763426?s=61
They’re running out of de-icer, their supplier in Germany is struggling to meet demand and they are having to collect it.
What a shambles.
https://x.com/airwaysmagazine/status/2008566153158000832?s=61
During the 2020 Presidential election there was a guy on here @Alasdair who predicted a Biden win when Trump was way ahead and wanted the count stopped. @Alasdair operated a count update service predicting when Biden would overtake Trump, he was very accurate. It was all very exciting.
I am equally guilty of doing it myself and I suppose we just get into a conversation or debate on here and just post our conclusions confidently at that moment.
But as you wrote, things mostly don’t happen.
PS - I've sent you a message.
I think it’s going to be difficult for parties to target their effort sensibly. They could easily be too timid in targeting seats and lose out, or too ambitious and spread their effort too thin. I’m in Camden, where the Greens have 1 councillor, in my ward, a 3-member ward. So, OK, they’ll get three here and there was another ward they did quite well in last time, so they’ll get those 3. But where do they put their effort next? There are lots of wards where they were a distant second or third last time that they *might* win, but how many should they go for?
The right hate him because Boris blew himself up.
The left hate him because Jeremy blew himself up.
Much easier to blame Boring Old Starmer than admit that their own personally flaws destroyed both Bozza and Jez and the projects they embodied.
Poor WilliamGlenn took far more abuse than just being called an apologist, and he was right about Trump and Harris.
But, yes, it’s very much a PB purity thing. If you’re not bashing Trump 24-7 you’re clearly a fan of his. I’ve been accused by our resident Incel of being a Trump devotee. I think Trump’s a twat.
Starmer is just getting the same sort of media treatment Boris, Truss and Sunak got and should Farage or Badenoch become PM they’d get the same too. It’s all about polar extremes and driving engagement,
Starmer had a far kinder press before the 24 election, as did Reeves.
I joined in 2021
Who exactly can I blame for the awful "Coalition of the Willing" moniker?
Well you ain't seen nothin' yet!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5O77AEaQ9g
There was definitely a lot of wishful thinking and motivated reasoning though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_the_willing_(Iraq_War)
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/reviewing-the-law-for-powered-mobility-devices/reviewing-the-law-for-powered-mobility-devices
You need a cup of tea whilst reading it, as there is quite a lot of it.
Confident prediction: "invalid carriage" will be replaced with "mobility aid *" or "mobility device".
* Technically this also covers Assistance Dogs and Walking Sticks.