Voters think 2026 will be the end of the Keir show – politicalbetting.com
Voters think 2026 will be the end of the Keir show – politicalbetting.com
How likely or unlikely do you think it is that Keir Starmer will still be prime minister at the end of 2026?Very likely: 6%Fairly likely: 23%Fairly unlikely: 26%Very unlikely: 29%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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(Oh, and first?)
He really is hated. The more so the longer he hangs around. We have as our PM a fart in a space suit.
https://x.com/nj_timothy/status/2008534253328625912
Chief Constable is likely toast now, well done to Nick Timothy MP for the campaign.
For those who hate the idea of Starmer and want him gone tomorrow- this is what losing elections is like. Irrelevance, impotence and people at parties asking you if Robert Peston is always like that.
5th behind everyone anyone ?
So Starmer started off less popular than some oppositions, and yet was handed a huge landslide - upsetting the British sense of fair play - and didn't really have any idea how to talk to his supporters, yet alone the voters who voted for other parties.
We should anticipate the next government having even more serious problems in this regard. The hat time any party received a greater share of the vote on an opinion poll, than Labour received at the 2024GE, was more than three months ago, at the beginning of October, and it's only happened a handful of times this Parliament thus far. Therefore we can anticipate that the PM after the next GE will have an even narrower base of support - regardless of how many MPs the increasingly absurd FPTP system gives them - and so have even greater difficulties maintaining public support.
Partly that's because electronics make it easier to breathe life into Potemkin Parties with a leader, a signup site and not much else. Partly because we, as a society, are less willing to compromise. We want our version of left or right, or we're not playing. Neither of those factors is going away. You see the same thing elsewhere (except, strangely, the USA), but it makes a mess of FPTP.
I call ag the time of the AV referendum the models suggested only marginal changes from FPTP (as opposed to STV which would have given a very different result). But now I think AV would give us some very different seat counts, generally at the expense of Reform.
Seriously it was clear at the time that the decision was hokey. They have behaved appallingly over this.
A lot of the fragmentation is played out in the primary contests.
Trump: "You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don't win the midterms, they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll get impeached."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2008577291207504057?s=20
If the first budget had been better thought out, and more Labour friendly, he wouldn’t have trashed his core vote support for a start.
Imagine
1) merging employee NI and IT over the parliament. Save on admin!
2) while reworking the rates for this, a few more quid from the higher rate payers. But get rid of the silly cliffs.
3) So more tax receipts - while keeping tax pretty much the same for existing payers.
4) All old age benefits (including WFP) go in a blender. Come out means tested/taxed to benefit the poorer pensioners *more* than the existing arrangements.
5) Have a special IT rate for basic rate pensioners, so the NI change only hits on income above 50k.
The markets would have liked this. No rebellions in the Labour Party.
And proceed from there.
Although even then, we see in Scottish local elections that a lot of votes drop out at lower preferences, as voters refuse to give a preference.
Reform no longer in a clear lead in the polls.
Reform disappointed with the dearth of defections.
By general election: Reform to come second or third in votes and seats.
Does anyone think these elections are actually going to run smoothly?
Russian elections run very smoothly, too.
Theresa May lost less than 5pp of support during the 2017GE campaign, and hey campaign is considered a byword for how to lose support during an election campaign.
It's amazing really, but how many people realise that Starmer's Ming Vase strategy actually lost more support than May's Dementia Tax?
The difference is that it was Reform who benefited at GE2024, and so Labour still won by a wide margin - the equivalent would have been the Greens surging at GE2017 and May still winning a landslide majority.
The NI/IT one really is a no brainer for me (even though I would end up paying more). Since far more people pay IT than pay NI, you could even reduce the overall rate a bit and still be making more money for the exchequer. Add in a system for properly taxing Multinational companies and you could radically improve the UK finances whilst making the whole thing both fairer and simpler.
SUPREME COURT TO ISSUE RULINGS ON TARIFFS FRIDAY
The U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as an opinion day, potentially marking its first ruling on President Trump’s global tariffs. Justices return from a four-week break, with decisions released at 10:00 A.M. ET. A tariff determination is considered likely.
Pretty much everything to do with US elections is a disgrace.
https://x.com/tousitvofficial/status/2008575890612191595?s=61
Althogether now:
"Young man, there's no need to feel down, I said
Young man, pick yourself off the ground...."
It's for a short story I'm writing.
At some point his critics will have to accept that he's been vindicated on many of the big questions of our time.
One of the big immediate problems in Iraq 2003 was that the invading forces created a huge power vacuum by telling all the police, etc, that the police force was simply abolished.
In Venezuela the state is still operating. The vice President has taken over, there's no power vacuum.
It's almost precisely the opposite of Iraq 2003. There are genuinely no US tanks in Caracas.
The pitch to Labour MPs - “Raise more money. eliminate loopholes. Equalise taxation between those who work and those who don’t. More money for poor pensioners. Oh, and cheaper to collect.”
IDS was fanservice for the Conservatives after the trauma of making almost no progress in 2001, nothing more.
Starmer's job in 2020 was similar to Kinnock in 1983 or Howard in 2003; cleaning up the internal mess left by his predecessor. It's an honourable role in politics, even when it doesn't lead to Downing Street. Would Howard have been any good as PM if he had somehow won in 2005? I doubt it.
That Starmer is PM isn't quite an accident, either. Calling the multiple calamaties of 2019-24 an accident is far too generous to the Conservative Party.
The funny thing is, though, that for some reason pro-American dictatorships aren't necessarily any more popular than the other kinds.
His big weaknesses were a May-style tendency to control everything and a vicious streak a foot wide that meant he made everything personal. But he could conceivably have overcome those.
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2008565918948094358
I reckon it's going to be different to the way Iraq 2003 played out though, and it's hard to say whether it will be better or worse.
#BestOfHumanity
Fascinating to see the confident projection of American power after 20 years. It’s got a 70s / 80s realpolitik theme with a sprinkling of Trump theatrics, rather than the zeal of the neocons.
Would now be something of a surprise if we don’t see similar in Cuba and Iran in 2026. Will it work in its primary goal (deterring a chinese move on Taiwan)? I have no idea.
I agree with VOTERS, including Labour VOTERS.
The big difference is that US troops aren't occupying Venezuela - a lot of people seem to be acting as though they are - and so a lack of a plan is most likely to lead to paralysis and inaction. In Iraq 2003 the fact of the occupation meant that they were forced by circumstance to do something. And then something else. And so on.
They are definitely no longer just rumours.
Funny how he does that thing with his hands when he calls his wife a 'classy lady.' Divorce incoming?
At least they've won something...
I just don't think that there's a parallel with Iraq 2003.
There's a whole bunch of different ways in which it can go wrong.
I thought he was a consummate professional, and an effective debater as Shadow Chancellor, which is what got him the nod after IDS was defenestrated. But always a transitional figure who held the fort and got the Tories through the 2005 election with a better-than-expected result. Apparently Blair was expecting another 100plus majority.
He's trying to corrupt them further.
Pivoting to protect incumbents under the inspirational, motivational, cerbreal Lucy Powell.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/06/labour-election-strategy-protect-mp-over-winning-seats-deputy-pm
Rather than reaching for parallels and pattern matching, better to look at the evidence in front of us. A very well executed decapitation; a rather muddled plan for the aftermath.
It reminds my wife [86] and I [82] that tempus fugit and each day should be cherished
In many ways we are unlikely to see todays geopolitics and the long term consquences play out, but do talk of just how concerned we are for the future our grandchildren will face
https://x.com/shashj/status/2008579181156987323
Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks."
But then, my Austrian great-grandparents died during and shortly after WWII, and one imagines that they would have been a bit downbeat about the future for the daughter they hadn't seen since she fled Vienna before the war, and yet things didn't turn out all that badly for her, and her great-grandchildren might have a better time of it than we currently fear.