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Reform are the favourites to win the most seats at the next general election – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,936
    edited 1:21AM
    MaxPB said:

    Took my wife out to lunch today for her birthday with the family. Unfortunately, there was a moment my 3 year old son bolted off down the restaurant, whilst she was in the loo with my daughter, and I had to run after him to rescue him, but not before he'd climbed onto the bench on the table next to a couple eating. Never had this before but they were very rude about it, "Do you mind? We're trying to eat here." and then commented on my inability to keep my child under control. I must admit I was fuming for most of the rest of the meal, until my wife calmed me down.

    Yes, they were triple-lockers. Charming.

    Sorry to hear that happened CR, it goes back to what we were discussing about having families a few days ago when OnlyLivingBoy made the point that in the UK there's a sense that children should be seen and not heard. I do find that Mediterranean countries are much better for families and so much friendlier to kids than any Northern European countries.

    There's just this pervasive attitude that parents should keep their kids under control 100% of the time and any failure to do so makes for bad parenting which is completely unacceptable.

    We've had that same experience where our 3 year old went and sat next to some randoms because we were fussing over the baby she made a run for it but the couple were really nice and just entertained her for a few seconds while I went and grabbed her. It just depends on the people but I do find there's a lot of miserable people out there and that's something that's for them to deal with rather than for us to be upset about.

    Just think about how sad their lives must be to scold a child or parents for something so minor? Absolutely zero joy at all.
    I had a strong impression we'd become a lot more positive about children in the UK in these types of situations around about the late 1990s compared to how we used to be, but it sounds like it might have gone into reverse somewhat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,910
    “Let's start with the most important. What does Ukraine want? Peace? Yes. At any cost? No. We want the war to end, - but not Ukraine. Are we tired? Very much so. Does this mean we're ready to surrender? Anyone who thinks that is deeply mistaken. They clearly still don't understand who Ukrainians are after all these years. A people enduring 1,407 days of full-scale war. Just consider those numbers. That's longer than Nazi occupation of many cities in World War II. 1,407 days of undefeated Ukraine, spending nights in shelters, fighting daily, often without electricity or sleep, many days at the frontlines. But always without panic, chaos, or division - united for peace. Do we want the war to end? Absolutely. Why hasn't this happened yet? The answer lies with our neighbor. Can Russia end the war? Yes. Do they want to? No.” - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his New Year’s address
    https://x.com/KaterynaLis/status/2006486773720035416
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Perahps the most comprehensive take so far this week on what’s happening in Iran, from former CIA guy Mike Baker.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wisdY2kD_cY
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,111
    dixiedean said:

    I like Blanche's cryptics.
    I don't reply cos I get them.
    Usually.

    Presumably Blanche Livermore is an anagram, but I'm struggling with it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    Explosions in Venezuela, apparently
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @cjzero.bsky.social‬

    Mr fucking peace prize is apparently invading Venezuela. No, I do not want to discuss it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @JenniferJJacobs

    BREAKING: Trump administration officials are aware of reports of explosions and aircraft over Venezuela's capital Caracas early this morning, sources tell @CBSNews. No official comment yet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    The US space industry is collapsing. Heading to Canada instead.

    A well argued and illustrated piece: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdXVX-qfvz4
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @bencollins.bsky.social‬

    You have to go through Congress for anything resembling this type of war. Round up Massie and Paul types and have him removed. The people in this administration are on actual drugs and have insatiable bloodlust and bespoke mental illnesses. He has to go, and everybody with him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @JenniferJJacobs

    Colombia's president, @petrogustavo: "Right now they are bombing Caracas. Alert to the whole world, they have attacked Venezuela. They are bombing with missiles. The OAS and the UN must meet immediately."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs

    BREAKING: Trump administration officials are aware of reports of explosions and aircraft over Venezuela's capital Caracas early this morning, sources tell @CBSNews. No official comment yet.

    Government by Randy Newman lyric.

    IT WAS IRONY, GUYS - NOT A FUCKING MANIFESTO!!

    No one likes us, I don't know why
    We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
    And all around, even our old friends put us down
    Let's drop the big one and see what happens

    We give them money, but are they grateful?
    No, they're spiteful and they're hateful
    They don't respect us, so let's surprise them
    We'll drop the big one and pulverize them

    Asia's crowded, Europe's too old
    Africa is far too hot and Canada's too cold
    And South America stole our name
    Let's drop the big one, there'll be no one left to blame us

    We'll save Australia
    Don't wanna hurt no kangaroo
    We'll build an all-American amusement park there
    They got surfing too

    Boom goes London, boom Paris
    More room for you and more room for me
    And every city the whole world 'round
    Will just be another American town
    Oh, how peaceful it'll be
    We'll set everybody free
    You wear a Japanese kimono, babe
    There'll be Italian shoes for me
    They all hate us anyhow
    So let's drop the big one now
    Let's drop the big one now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    Boy, there must be some really bad stuff in the Epstein files if Trump decides he needs to go for Venezuela and Iran at the same time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs

    Colombia's president, @petrogustavo: "Right now they are bombing Caracas. Alert to the whole world, they have attacked Venezuela. They are bombing with missiles. The OAS and the UN must meet immediately."

    And you wonder why Trump won't condemn Putin for invading Ukraine....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,805
    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    The new batch of Storm Shadow sent to Ukraine, appears to have been put to good use against Russian O&G facilities in recent days.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAuxKe1vyls
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,272
    Donr panic Captain Mainwaring.......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    🚨BREAKING via
    @CBSNews
    : President Trump ordered strikes on sites inside Venezuela including military facilities, U.S. officials said, as the administration early Saturday ratcheted up its campaign against the regime of President Nicolás Maduro.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @marisakabas.bsky.social‬

    just thinking about every american media outlet that said something along the lines of "legal experts say there is likely no legal basis for bombing venezuelan boats" and not HEY THIS IS FUCKING ILLEGAL AND AGGRESSIVE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    Scott_xP said:

    @marisakabas.bsky.social‬

    just thinking about every american media outlet that said something along the lines of "legal experts say there is likely no legal basis for bombing venezuelan boats" and not HEY THIS IS FUCKING ILLEGAL AND AGGRESSIVE

    Are you suggesting Donald Trump, a man of such integrity that he falsified election returns, incited a mob to hang his deputy, repeatedly sexually assaulted young women, defrauded his banks, forged his accountancy returns, lied to Congress and cheats himself at golf - may actually be doing something illegal?

    Say it ain’t so…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    No.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Ooh, looks like it might actually be American special forces in Venezuela.

    Hold tight everyone!

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2007346372539015213
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2007337456769826973
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,175
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Assumes at first glance this is a tweet from some junior loon in the Trump machine.
    Realises it isn’t.
    Slowly steps away.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,389
    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,175
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    No.
    Bari Weiss News aka CBS saying these are strikes ordered by the POTUS, assume this is good enough for everyone.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,831
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    No, it’s mad man Trump’s work.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,693
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
    If it's successful in removing Maduro, it may also embolden Trump to take similar action elsewhere...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, looks like it might actually be American special forces in Venezuela.

    Hold tight everyone!

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2007346372539015213
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2007337456769826973

    I always said it was a mistake to tell the SEALs Maduro had loads of drugs for sale.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,831
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm a bit confused about Iran.
    Even Al Jazeera doesn't really have much detail.
    7 dead and 44 arrested.
    That doesn't sound like an imminent regime change.
    Are the complaints that it is bigger than that and therefore should be reported?
    Or that that in itself should be given more prominence?
    Or is someone in possession of more significant information which is being silenced?
    Or what?

    It's extremely hard to make sense of such reports as there are.
    There are clearly widespread protests, but how much more can you glean from stuff like this ?

    NOW in the city of Shahriar, Iran.

    Amazing scenes coming out from all corners of Iran. Shahriar has also taken to the streets! "Don't be afraid, we're all together" is being shouted. ..

    https://x.com/Savakzadeh/status/2007130111603249656
    It would be a very good thing for the wonderful people of Iran to be rid of the Mullahs and perhaps see the restoration of the Shah, so that they can have greater religious freedom and democracy.

    However, these breathless stories about the ferment on the streets of Tehran happen fairly often. Since well before the Arab Spring.

    It would be great to see the fall of the Mullahs, but I wouldn't romantacize the Shah. He ran a pretty brutal dictatorship, backed by a nasty internal police that cracked down on anything that looked like dissent. The Iranian Revolution happened as much because people hated the Shah's rule as they wanted an Islamic state.
    Indeed, more so.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,831
    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
    If it's successful in removing Maduro, it may also embolden Trump to take similar action elsewhere...
    You mean Greenland?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
    If it's successful in removing Maduro, it may also embolden Trump to take similar action elsewhere...
    You mean Greenland?
    'O Canada we stand on guard for thee' may take on more than poetic significance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,175
    Is Trump dumb enough to think the Venezuelan attacks will also serve to cow China, or is he too dumb to have even considered it?

    https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/2007345823118700606?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    edited 8:07AM

    Is Trump dumb enough to think the Venezuelan attacks will also serve to cow China, or is he too dumb to have even considered it?

    https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/2007345823118700606?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    With Trump, given a choice between dumb and dumber, always choose dumber.

    He probably assumes China won't get too exercised about America in its sphere, if he is willing to allow China (and Russia) a free hand in their spheres (as defined in his rather low powered brain).

    In this he is almost certainly wrong given however much Xi desires Taiwan it doesn't have cheap oil in it.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,157
    ..the president of peace..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,805
    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, looks like it might actually be American special forces in Venezuela.

    Hold tight everyone!

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2007346372539015213
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2007337456769826973

    I always said it was a mistake to tell the SEALs Maduro had loads of drugs for sale.
    Haha, although they probably won’t be paying for it!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    How exactly do they define “Impeached”?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,009
    edited 8:26AM
    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,682
    edited 8:29AM
    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    Getting 2/3rd of the Senate to convict Trump would require

    - a swing to the Democrats that is to impossible
    - the Democrats to find a spine
    - the Republicans to find a spine

    Probably all together, at the same time.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    Getting 2/3rd of the Senate to convict Trump would require

    - a swing to the Democrats that is to impossible
    - the Democrats to find a spine
    - the Republicans to find a spine

    Probably all together, at the same time.
    Surely nothing to do with the Senate? Impeachment happens before they try the case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    Getting 2/3rd of the Senate to convict Trump would require

    - a swing to the Democrats that is to impossible
    - the Democrats to find a spine
    - the Republicans to find a spine

    Probably all together, at the same time.
    The first one doesn't apply until 2027, remember.

    Well, actually, looking at the map and remembering the number of Republican states that indulge in fairly blatant vote rigging it doesn't apply until hell freezes over.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,990
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Tempted to put this on r/agedlikemilk
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,479
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.

    President 'No more wars' Trump.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,990

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    No.
    Bari Weiss News aka CBS saying these are strikes ordered by the POTUS, assume this is good enough for everyone.
    The BBC are also reporting it though, so you can see why some PBers might have doubts.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.

    President 'No more wars' Trump.
    This is clearly one of those Special Military Operations, not a war.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,753
    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,805
    edited 8:41AM

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    Getting 2/3rd of the Senate to convict Trump would require

    - a swing to the Democrats that is to impossible
    - the Democrats to find a spine
    - the Republicans to find a spine

    Probably all together, at the same time.
    Impeachment doesn't require conviction. It requires essentially all of the Democrat and a handful of Republican representatives to vote for the process. I think it depends on how the operation turns out. If it's over quickly and the Americans get out intact, Trump will be fine IMO. If it goes wrong Trump will find no-one on his side supported him on this adventure.

    Should add that quite a few of the House Republicans are staring at defeat in the mid-terms. Trump won't have the same hold over them that he once did.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    edited 8:38AM

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.

    President 'No more wars' Trump.
    So far I make it:

    Yemen
    Nigeria
    Iran
    Venezuela

    Plus threats to
    Gaza
    Canada
    Greenland
    Ukraine

    And that's just the first twelve months of his second term.

    He doesn't seem to have done anything in Sudan so far - or have I missed something? (There's a conflict nobody's willing to comment on at all.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343
    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,985
    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Far too often in history America's interpretation of the Munro doctrine has been that they can do whatever they like in South America.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,740
    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    It's about "narco terrorism" ie same as the drug boats. The idea is that people in the Venezuelan state and army are behind the drug cartels.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    It's about "narco terrorism" ie same as the drug boats. The idea is that people in the Venezuelan state and army are behind the drug cartels.
    To be fair, they probably are.

    But there are ways and ways of dealing with that, and if Trump really is planning an invasion he's chosen the wrong one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Off Topic

    Just watching the Night Manager series 1 for the first time. Really good.

    It was very good. Haven't decided whether to watch series 2 yet.
    Series 2 gets off to a good start.

    I've also just started Series 1 of Red Eye (wasn't aware of it when it came out) - so far so good.

    And the final two series of Seaside Hotel are now available on Ch 4, so I've got those lined up too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    It's about "narco terrorism" ie same as the drug boats. The idea is that people in the Venezuelan state and army are behind the drug cartels.
    I'm sure they are. I'm also sure there are people in the US state and army behind the drug cartels. Trillions of global profit that need control with violence tends to have that impact.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Unconfirmed reports that Venezuelan defence minister has been killed in the Caracas strikes.

    https://x.com/nstrike1231/status/2007361875118301481

    That escalates things somewhat if confirmed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    Never in his wildest dreams could Maduro have expected the asylum inmates would migrate into top jobs in Washington....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,982
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Tempted to put this on r/agedlikemilk
    Milk takes a bit longer to age!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,119
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.

    President 'No more wars' Trump.
    So far I make it:

    Yemen
    Nigeria
    Iran
    Venezuela

    Plus threats to
    Gaza
    Canada
    Greenland
    Ukraine

    And that's just the first twelve months of his second term.

    He doesn't seem to have done anything in Sudan so far - or have I missed something? (There's a conflict nobody's willing to comment on at all.)
    You missed Panama from the list. Although he seems to have forgotten about that one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,682
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    Getting 2/3rd of the Senate to convict Trump would require

    - a swing to the Democrats that is to impossible
    - the Democrats to find a spine
    - the Republicans to find a spine

    Probably all together, at the same time.
    Impeachment doesn't require conviction. It requires essentially all of the Democrat and a handful of Republican representatives to vote for the process. I think it depends on how the operation turns out. If it's over quickly and the Americans get out intact, Trump will be fine IMO. If it goes wrong Trump will find no-one on his side supported him on this adventure.

    Should add that quite a few of the House Republicans are staring at defeat in the mid-terms. Trump won't have the same hold over them that he once did.
    So far, impeachment has been tried on Trump, multiple times.

    And not worked.

    It won’t be tried again unless there is a real possibility of conviction.

    And there is none.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs
    Scoop: Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to conduct land strikes in Venezuela days ago, U.S. officials told
    @CBSNews
    . U.S. was ready on Christmas day but airstrikes in Nigeria against ISIS targets took precedence, sources said. The days following Christmas opened more potential strike windows but the operation was postponed partly due to weather. U.S. military wanted weather conditions that were advantageous to mission success.

    President 'No more wars' Trump.
    So far I make it:

    Yemen
    Nigeria
    Iran
    Venezuela

    Plus threats to
    Gaza
    Canada
    Greenland
    Ukraine

    And that's just the first twelve months of his second term.

    He doesn't seem to have done anything in Sudan so far - or have I missed something? (There's a conflict nobody's willing to comment on at all.)
    You missed Panama from the list. Although he seems to have forgotten about that one.
    So he and I both fail a cognitive test?

    That's worrying both because he's the most powerful man in the world and I don't want to feel as though I'm as addled as he is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    Sandpit said:

    Unconfirmed reports that Venezuelan defence minister has been killed in the Caracas strikes.

    https://x.com/nstrike1231/status/2007361875118301481

    That escalates things somewhat if confirmed.

    Wrong Vladimir....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Tempted to put this on r/agedlikemilk
    That’s fair. I didn’t expect the Americans to go there on the same day a Chinese delegation was in town.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875

    Sandpit said:

    Unconfirmed reports that Venezuelan defence minister has been killed in the Caracas strikes.

    https://x.com/nstrike1231/status/2007361875118301481

    That escalates things somewhat if confirmed.

    Wrong Vladimir....
    He just Putin a quick one and missed by 6,000 miles.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unconfirmed reports that Venezuelan defence minister has been killed in the Caracas strikes.

    https://x.com/nstrike1231/status/2007361875118301481

    That escalates things somewhat if confirmed.

    Wrong Vladimir....
    He just Putin a quick one and missed by 6,000 miles.
    Trump will blame the Ukranians.

    When told to.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now.

    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now.

    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
    As against that, I offer you Henry Kissinger.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,046
    The Republican senators must be so proud of conforming the appointment of Hegseth.

    Ditto most of the rest of Trump's administration.

    There must be a chance that impeaching Hegseth would get the required vote.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343

    The Republican senators must be so proud of conforming the appointment of Hegseth.

    Ditto most of the rest of Trump's administration.

    There must be a chance that impeaching Hegseth would get the required vote.

    There is a chance Claudia Schiffer might be coming round later, but neither are happening.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,129
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now.

    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
    "Cry "havoc" and let slip the Department of War" :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    edited 9:05AM

    The Republican senators must be so proud of conforming the appointment of Hegseth.

    Ditto most of the rest of Trump's administration.

    There must be a chance that impeaching Hegseth would get the required vote.

    You underestimate the support amongst the Republicans for finishing once and for all the “War On Drugs”, which despite running since Reagan’s days has resulted in record amounts of drugs ending up in the US, killing over a hundred thousand Americans in 2024 alone.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,528
    Ratters said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
    If it's successful in removing Maduro, it may also embolden Trump to take similar action elsewhere...
    Greenland and Canada next, then the carve up of Arctic mineral wealth between America, Russia and China.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,666

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    Never in his wildest dreams could Maduro have expected the asylum inmates would migrate into top jobs in Washington....
    I was listening to a discussion of the internal politics of the GOP recently and it was argued that attacking Venezuela was one of the few things that the whole GOP could agree on. The MAGA isolationists are in favour because it's seen as part of controlling the border from drug and people trafficking. The neocons are in favour because of the oil. The Monroe doctrine traditionalists are in favour because they see Maduro as an important link, with Cuba, of the anti-American forces in the Western hemisphere.

    So there's something for everyone with an attack on Venezuela.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,615
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now
    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
    For a man who supposedly abhorred the US getting involved in overseas conflict he seems to be rather keen on them and ruling more and more by diktat without oversight of congress and the senate.

    Another ill ventured conflict. Dubya and Obama must be looking on enviously.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,615

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    Never in his wildest dreams could Maduro have expected the asylum inmates would migrate into top jobs in Washington....
    I was listening to a discussion of the internal politics of the GOP recently and it was argued that attacking Venezuela was one of the few things that the whole GOP could agree on. The MAGA isolationists are in favour because it's seen as part of controlling the border from drug and people trafficking. The neocons are in favour because of the oil. The Monroe doctrine traditionalists are in favour because they see Maduro as an important link, with Cuba, of the anti-American forces in the Western hemisphere.

    So there's something for everyone with an attack on Venezuela.
    Including regime change, another favourite of presidents of the USA.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,528
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Trump is doing a three day Special Military Operation in Venezuela, all going to plan?

    Maduro is a nasty piece of work. A crook, a failure, a drug pusher, a fat Fascist and a politician the world would be much better off without. Even worse than Chavez, who was no angel despite the adoration some rather foolish lefties on the west heaped on him.

    But invading other countries to take out criminal scum of leaders is never a good idea, even if done for altruistic reasons (which this certainly would not be given Trump is just as corrupt as Maduro). It only ever leads to chaos, more fighting and lasting ill-feeling.

    Moreover, attacking Venezuela will only (a) upset China and (b) embolden them over Taiwan. The first is a bit of an ‘oh dear, how sad, never mind’ given compared to Xi even Trump and Maduro are honest and decent human beings. The second would be a major disaster all around.

    Unfortunately just getting rid of an utter scumbag like Maduro by force would be just as likely to make things worse rather than better.
    Don't mistake Trump's animosity towards China with giving a damn about Taiwan, especially once he has forced the transfer of its chip-making know-how to America and Intel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    edited 9:08AM

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    Never in his wildest dreams could Maduro have expected the asylum inmates would migrate into top jobs in Washington....
    I was listening to a discussion of the internal politics of the GOP recently and it was argued that attacking Venezuela was one of the few things that the whole GOP could agree on. The MAGA isolationists are in favour because it's seen as part of controlling the border from drug and people trafficking. The neocons are in favour because of the oil. The Monroe doctrine traditionalists are in favour because they see Maduro as an important link, with Cuba, of the anti-American forces in the Western hemisphere.

    So there's something for everyone with an attack on Venezuela.
    And for Trump, there's a useful distraction from Epstein.

    Has Vance leaked his views through an unsecured chat on Signal yet? That would be useful to know more about.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,831
    Sandpit said:

    The Republican senators must be so proud of conforming the appointment of Hegseth.

    Ditto most of the rest of Trump's administration.

    There must be a chance that impeaching Hegseth would get the required vote.

    You underestimate the support amongst the Republicans for finishing once and for all the “War On Drugs”, which despite running since Reagan’s days has resulted in record amounts of drugs ending up in the US, killing over a hundred thousand Americans in 2024 alone.
    And this isn’t going to finish once and for all the War on Drugs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,666
    edited 9:11AM
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Tempted to put this on r/agedlikemilk
    That’s fair. I didn’t expect the Americans to go there on the same day a Chinese delegation was in town.
    Apparently the Chinese envoy and Maduro agreed on Defence cooperation. Putin-style this would have been seen as a provocation and a cassus belli for an attack.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,615
    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,682
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now.

    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
    Maybe Trump saw a TikTok about Kissinger - and thought that if one approach to the Peace Prize doesn’t work…
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,369
    As an aside, Maduro's very friendly with Russia (I think also China).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,875
    White House Doctor:

    'Look, Mr President, when I said you needed to do something about the excess use of drugs, I meant your constant overdosing on aspirin.'
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,343
    Taz said:

    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

    Pre-outrage about someone else's potential outrage.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,974
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Just how much of a fucking mug are you? Put the podcasts down before you go "Full Plato".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,996
    Taz said:

    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

    Yet crickets from them about Iran, Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen…

    They have no interest in actually stopping the war, only in presenting UK, US, and Israel, as the bad guys.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,615

    Taz said:

    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

    Pre-outrage about someone else's potential outrage.
    Ha ha.

    Just spotting a commercial opportunity for the commercially astute. All for a good bit of entrepreneurialism. Admirable really.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,808
    edited 9:18AM
    Taz said:

    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

    Depends what happens - if this is just a one off series of strikes, probably not but if it is a prelude to an actual invasion with ground troops moving into Caracas, there will be plenty of anger over here from the usual suspects and others.

    It would be analogous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - an act of illegal aggression against another sovereign country. It would be right to criticise such an action.

    Do you think invading other countries is a good idea?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,528
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Ladbrokes 4/1 on Trump being impeached in 2026 is possibly looking quite good now.

    The recent bet365 odds of 4/1 for him winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize maybe rather less so ...
    Well he’s somewhat unlikely to be getting the peace prize now.

    To be fair, that opportunity probably departed when the USAF bombed Iran on behalf of Israel.

    It doesn’t matter how many peace agreements between various nations get signed on your watch, starting wars is viewed somewhat negatively by the Nobel committee!
    In unrelated news, Trump this week became the first non-Israeli awarded the Israel prize, to put alongside his Fifa peace prize.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,615
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    Just how much of a fucking mug are you? Put the podcasts down before you go "Full Plato".
    Oh Christ, this conflict means ‘Fire up the Emergency Podcast’ from the usual sources. 🥺
  • TresTres Posts: 3,366
    Sandpit said:

    Has mad man Maduro tried to stage a false flag attack in Caracas? Reports of explosions in Venezuelan capital this evening.

    look ma - brain rot
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,666

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    Never in his wildest dreams could Maduro have expected the asylum inmates would migrate into top jobs in Washington....
    Trump is clearly keen to show Putin that he can do unprovoked military attacks on neighbouring counties too. Earn the respect of the big man.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,366
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Exactly what military threat did Venezuela pose to the USA ?

    I expect the spineless GOP to do fxck all and find a way to justify this action .

    Good question, OI'L go and investigate it for you.
    Apparently Trump has accused MAduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums and forcing the inmates to migrate to the US.'

    I'm getting strong vibes of Sir Mortimer Chris...
    has he just been watching Scarface?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,528
    ydoethur said:

    White House Doctor:

    'Look, Mr President, when I said you needed to do something about the excess use of drugs, I meant your constant overdosing on aspirin.'

    Things that make you go ‘hmm’ – my local pharmacy ran out of dispersible aspirin yesterday.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,052
    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    Anyone who’s got a stockpile of Venezuelan flags is about to make a few bob selling them to the perma outraged Gaza lot.

    Depends what happens - if this is just a one off series of strikes, probably not but if it is a prelude to an actual invasion with ground troops moving into Caracas, there will be plenty of anger over here from the usual suspects and others.

    It would be analogous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - an act of illegal aggression against another sovereign country. It would be right to criticise such an action.

    Do you think invading other countries is a good idea?
    It depends upon the casus belli.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,657
    Good morning

    Only 3rd January and Trump has gone 'Caracus' in Venezuela

    Trump is a walking, talking, acting, total liability to the World as we knew it and frankly there seems nothing anyone can do to control him

    Horrible start to year with tragic fire in Switzerland, drownings in the seas around our coasts, Iran on the brink, and now this

    One thing we can predict is everything is unpredictable

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