This is why I consider More In Common & YouGov the gold standard pollsters – politicalbetting.com
This is why I consider More In Common & YouGov the gold standard pollsters – politicalbetting.com
Happy Christmas everybody.
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Happy Christmas everybody.
Comments
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/die-hard
We have visitors tomorrow so instead of Xmas movies, booze, cheese, cold meats and bread it’s cleaning the house from top to bottom for the third time in three fucking days,
Looks like they’re getting a white Christmas at our place in France, which is annoying as I’m not there this year. And it’s the perfect Hollywood version: dry but chilly today with no snow cover, a few flakes in the air, then heavy snow from about 11pm and people will wake up to a wintry scene with a few cm lying.
I don’t know how often that’s happened in lowland England in the last few decades: that precise timing and choreography. Even in a cold climate it would be statistically unusual.
And with that, time I think to check out for the break.
“It's based around Christmas, but if it were also St. Patrick's Day, it would still work. But you couldn't do Home Alone on Memorial Day”
(Source: https://youtu.be/3JLmNRBi5GU?si=R5tBZSdao6kAVFW3)
https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/2001666970228580548
Agreed entirely, especially now I've shoved my latest research paper off to the editor and can finally switch off (and fellow-feeling for @viewcode - the final checks are the bit I hate, like pulling out one's body hairs one by one).
Perhaps it reflects my increasing age but I can't help wondering sadly how the last category to whom you refer will even find anywhere to go to the loo. They are people too. It will be interesting to see @viewcode 's remarks on this rather basic point.
Sent up East Ham High Street by Mrs Stodge to get a last couple of items for the Christmas siege - I have the Boxing Day racecards and form so I'm happy. Very busy of course.
The story of this Christmas has been the cheap veg on offer at Tesco, Sainsburys and Lidl - our bag of potatoes cost 5p apparently. This begs the obvious question why we pay so much for our veg at other times and what if anything anyone is going to do about it - vested interests abound, the supermarkets, our new "friends", the farmers etc, etc.
I've inaugurated the new Stodge Golden Polling Measure - the old parties (Lab, Con, LD) vs the Insurgents (Reform, Green). YouGov has it at 54-40 and More in Common has 56-37. Find Out Now stands out at 43-50.
My prediction now, today, for the outcome of the next election is a Government supported in the Commons by Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats (not a coalition) facing an opposition of mainly Reform and some Greens. That's now and given the next election is probably spring or early summer 2029, so much water will go under so many bridges as to make prediction of any kind unrealistic.
To paraphrase Hirohito, I think we may to start "thinking the unthinkable".
I'm in Siem Reap and it's 25 degrees at midnight 😉
I've just realised I've compared TSE to three utter lunatics with serious personality disorders.
I am hoping that he is more typical of Cambridge educated lawyers than they are...
"It's Christmas, TSE, it's the time of miracles."
I think he's talking his own book. Film.
Free speech will have to go to preserve multiculturalism
One Australian politician has said the quiet part out loud" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/12/23/senior-politician-just-said-quiet-part-out-loud-free-speech/
It's only two times for me, but that's twice too many.
I'll always try wine from a previously unavailable source, although I know that wine has been made in the Caucasus for what, 6000 years. Sometimes I'll drink them again; Cretan and Moldovan wines are example, Not sure about the Armenian red; we've some white to try at a later date.
Have a great day tomorrow everyone.
Home made pizza, cheese, bread and charcuterie here.
And terrible TV.
ChristmasHolidays to all. We've so much food to cook, we've run out of pans. That's on top of the microwave and the air fryer. Difficult when catering for vegetarians, vegans, fussy and traditional. Just need Kosher and Halal to send the chefs over the edge.I have been allowed to clean the oven and select the wine.
Free speech will have to go to preserve multiculturalism
One Australian politician has said the quiet part out loud
Sean Thomas
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/61482d826c8b6829
For example, I found a number of brilliant Chardonnays in Bulgaria. Can’t get them in the U.K. - I puzzled the chap at Berry & Rudd, who couldn’t find them in his books.
Re @kjh Romanian wines have improved considerably since the end of Communism there. Grieves me somewhat to say it, but countries with Communist governments didn't generally produce wine of the quality they have since demonstrated they could.
We got our Xmas wine from Crush in Durham. It’s in the fridge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLlv_aZjHXc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkiL-v4X8w8
Yippee-ki-yay
The fun is in the search.
Calibre
Frankenstein
A real pain
The brutalist
The Phoenician scheme
Worst two were
Now you see me now you don’t
Thursday murder club
Some days I completely understand the worldview of Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres, regarding communists.
Nevertheless, wishing PBers of all faiths and none a Merry Christmas.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/24/farage-criticised-for-direct-bullion-job-promoting-physical-gold-as-pension-investment
Nigel Farage's Christmas Message 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goaz7_31JqA
Meat prep tomorrow morning.
Happy Christmas to each and every PBer.
I don't know how Badenoch squares the circle - she cannot afford to be too far from Reform but she can't afford to be too close to them either. Staking out the "sound economic management" ground will be fine until we get to the specifics - which Services will be cut, whose benefits will be withdrawn, etc, etc?
If she makes the Tories Reform-lite what will be the point of voting Conservative? They won't win back the LD seats where those opposed to Reform can vote tactically while Reform will eat their vote in the Labour seats.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zMzFPoUS-CQ
There’s a reason the wary buy gold coins and put them in insured safe deposit boxes. Though safe deposits are another potential scam…
According to EC, that gives 231 Reform, 145 Con, 135 Lab, 57 Lib Dem.
The Conservatives can only be second fiddle, in a Reform-led government. Whereas, Kemi would be PM, in a grand coalition - and I expect there would be a lot of pressure, from the great and good, to form it.
If anti-Reform tactical voting cuts them to c.200, while pushing the Conservatives and Labour up to 160/150, that would strengthen the argument.
Which after Reform implodes (before or after entering government) will have a big market place.
Sadly, the politicians would reject most of it.
Even if the alternative was a Reform government.