YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Story of election night is now also dependent on which councils decide to do an overnight count. If councils are serious about saving money they should be waiting until Friday morning.
It’s hard to see which councils Labour can hold on to, where there are all-elections, apart from Newham.
They’re being hit on four fronts.
In Muslim-majority wards, they’re shedding votes to Your Party.
In trendy urban wards, they’re losing to Greens and Lib Dem’s.
In well-heeled wards, they’re losing to the Conservatives.
And in working class/Red Wall wards, they’re losing to Reform.
They could easily lose 1,500 seats in May.
Not quite accurate - in Newham, they are losing to the Newham Independents who are NOT Your Party but very much their own group.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.
One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
There's always been a lot of antisemitism on the right. What kept it in check for a period was that antisemitism was a useful weapon to use against the left.
But in the US they're now onto the "revolution eating itself" stage of proceedings, where fighting the left is no longer the most important thing, but fighting each other to gain most of the spoils of victory is. This antisemitism has re-emerged as an identifier on the isolationism axis, I think, or just as a useful scapegoat.
This is to misread the underlying dynamics imo. It is not about American Jews per se. Essentially there is a split between MAGA isolationists, including Trump, who want American soldiers kept a safe distance from the Middle East, and the pro-Israel lobby which includes GOP neocons who want to bomb any country that looks at Bibi a bit funny. (Slightly complicated by extreme Evangelicals who see Middle East tumult as leading to the second coming, but that's gone off the boil recently so we can ignore them.)
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Despite "dying on their feet", they've gained 61 seats since May 2nd, and the Greens have gained ... two.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
In true local elections tradition it’ll be all Reform vs Labour and Tory early in the evening and leading all the bulletins. Then quietly the following morning the amber shift will see Lib Dems picking up vast numbers of seats and ending up second in total, and Greens overtaking either Lab or Con, but no journalists will notice.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Story of election night is now also dependent on which councils decide to do an overnight count. If councils are serious about saving money they should be waiting until Friday morning.
It’s hard to see which councils Labour can hold on to, where there are all-elections, apart from Newham.
They’re being hit on four fronts.
In Muslim-majority wards, they’re shedding votes to Your Party.
In trendy urban wards, they’re losing to Greens and Lib Dem’s.
In well-heeled wards, they’re losing to the Conservatives.
And in working class/Red Wall wards, they’re losing to Reform.
They could easily lose 1,500 seats in May.
We've got all of those ward types in Bradford. The count is going to be a bloodbath for Labour.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.
One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
There's always been a lot of antisemitism on the right. What kept it in check for a period was that antisemitism was a useful weapon to use against the left.
But in the US they're now onto the "revolution eating itself" stage of proceedings, where fighting the left is no longer the most important thing, but fighting each other to gain most of the spoils of victory is. This antisemitism has re-emerged as an identifier on the isolationism axis, I think, or just as a useful scapegoat.
This is to misread the underlying dynamics imo. It is not about American Jews per se. Essentially there is a split between MAGA isolationists, including Trump, who want American soldiers kept a safe distance from the Middle East, and the pro-Israel lobby which includes GOP neocons who want to bomb any country that looks at Bibi a bit funny. (Slightly complicated by extreme Evangelicals who see Middle East tumult as leading to the second coming, but that's gone off the boil recently so we can ignore them.)
Adding in those MAGA's who think that Putin is the second coming of Hitler, and believe that to be a good thing.
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Despite "dying on their feet", they've gained 61 seats since May 2nd, and the Greens have gained ... two.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.
One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
LOL is that the latest feed from your sources. Tell us about the other unhinged Kirk conspiracy theories you've been reading about.
The crazy conspiracy theory is that Kirk was murdered by Israel and Egypt, aided and abetted by his own widow and the management at Turning Point USA.
See Candace Owens for more details. Or don’t, if you prefer not to listen to crazy.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.
Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
The one that gets me morally confused is the question of deaths per meal.
Is a juicy steak (let’s say 1% of a cow), or better still a chunk of braised whale (0.001%?), more ethical than a prawn cocktail (15 whole beings) or plate of whitebait (30 lives, ended right there)?
If we accept the fact of eating living creatures they should be killed humanely. Unconscious when killed, I suppose that means.
Good morning, everybody. How are turkeys slaughtered?
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Despite "dying on their feet", they've gained 61 seats since May 2nd, and the Greens have gained ... two.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
You are surprised that Lizard Brain Anti-Semitism is a reflex for these people?
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over
It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay
Reform are on track under FPTP for an overall majority on less than one third of the vote.
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over
It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay
Reform are on track under FPTP for an overall majority on less than one third of the vote.
Another "loveless landslide" though Imimagine that won't be the sentiment in the media or on GB News.
We've yet to see Reform fight a proper GE campaign - will they work 500 seats, 400? Do they have the ground organisation or are we suggesting they'll come through the middle in hundreds of seats between a collapsing Labour vote and a slowly recovering Tory vote?
FPTP is a pernicious and capricious mistress - never forget that.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
I think the betting angle is the fighting against the release of information, the partial releases, the redactions and the bizarre faking of stuff in the releases.
All of these create a drip-drip effect that will carry on for quite a while.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
I was literally just asking someone what has happened to Tucker Carlson – from arguably the most respected political interviewer and pundit in America, to pro-Russia conspiracy theory loon without passing Go and collecting $200.
MAGA has long been in a state of cognitive dissonance as President Trump has betrayed the isolationists by intervening in the Middle East and is now threatening Venezuela, and has resiled from his campaign pledge to release the Epstein files in full.
On Venezuela, it looks like Trump, long anti-war himself, unlike the GOP neocons, hopes a naval blockade will bring down the Maduro regime. If or when this happens, I'd expect a lot of American aid to restore the economy quickly and anything not nailed down handed to US corporations. Cuba is probably not in the crosshairs but there is collateral economic damage so who knows?
As for Carlson, I think he is collecting $200... or rather a lot more than that. The media ecosystem is such that being a conspiracy theory loon pays well. He probably doesn't believe any of it.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.
Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
The one that gets me morally confused is the question of deaths per meal.
Is a juicy steak (let’s say 1% of a cow), or better still a chunk of braised whale (0.001%?), more ethical than a prawn cocktail (15 whole beings) or plate of whitebait (30 lives, ended right there)?
If we accept the fact of eating living creatures they should be killed humanely. Unconscious when killed, I suppose that means.
Good morning, everybody. How are turkeys slaughtered?
As I understand it, stunned electrically or by inert gas, before being bled. But IANAE.
As for @MelonB 's question, it's always puzzled me too though I never put it quite so well myself as it is set out here.
Although there is of course the question of degree of mental consciousness.
Perhaps one might think in terms also of whether the organisms in question had been specially cultivated or were caught wild. In the latter case the small stuff would end up being eaten anyway, especially the juveniles, with only a little chance of survival (vide Malthus and C. Darwin). So whitebait is OK. And ethically it's probably better to eat North Atlantic sea prawns (for us in the UK anyway) than import farmed tiger prawns from the Far East, for instance). (It's certainly cheaper and much less damaging to the environment too, as prawns are almost a weed species.)
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
I think the betting angle is the fighting against the release of information, the partial releases, the redactions and the bizarre faking of stuff in the releases.
All of these create a drip-drip effect that will carry on for quite a while.
There is no betting angle if we can't bet on it. Unless one of the likely contenders in the next presidential election is rumoured but not yet proved to be involved, there's no betting angle. Justice for the victims is nice to have but incidental to politics.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.
One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
To quote Wikipedia:
In October 2023, Kirk said on The Charlie Kirk Show that "Jewish donors have been the Number 1 funding mechanism of radical, open border, neoliberal, quasi‑Marxist policies ... This is a beast created by secular Jews, and now it's coming for Jews", and also suggested that these Jews control "not just the colleges; it's the nonprofits, it's the movies, it's Hollywood, it's all of it". Soon after, he said that "Jews have been some of the largest funders of cultural Marxist ideas and supporters of those ideas over the last 30 or 40 years."
Some people might think that a little bit anti-Semitic, Sandpit.
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
Proportionately the tit whisperer is down by a greater percentage than Reform.
Taz I enjoy your posts but why oh why do you always have to be so offensive about politicians. Your post refering to Harris the other day with the Camel Toe name was a new low. I am not suggesting you are not critical of the policies but why use offensive names for the individuals. You wouldn't (I assume) do it to their face.
Sorry, I do have a somewhat juvenile sense of humour at times.
I also think Polanski gets a free pass for his rather interesting past.
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over
It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay
Reform are on track under FPTP for an overall majority on less than one third of the vote.
Another "loveless landslide" though Imimagine that won't be the sentiment in the media or on GB News.
We've yet to see Reform fight a proper GE campaign - will they work 500 seats, 400? Do they have the ground organisation or are we suggesting they'll come through the middle in hundreds of seats between a collapsing Labour vote and a slowly recovering Tory vote?
FPTP is a pernicious and capricious mistress - never forget that.
Not to mention that a general election is not due until July 2029 and, in Harold Wilson's words, 3½ years is a long time in politics.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
Or you could say that they've been slow timing releasing any of this since they got into office.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
I think the betting angle is the fighting against the release of information, the partial releases, the redactions and the bizarre faking of stuff in the releases.
All of these create a drip-drip effect that will carry on for quite a while.
There is no betting angle if we can't bet on it. Unless one of the likely contenders in the next presidential election is rumoured but not yet proved to be involved, there's no betting angle. Justice for the victims is nice to have but incidental to politics.
Proved to be involved with Epstein? Or proved to be involved with covering up things that make Trump look bad? Because the latter seems quite likely.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
What Farage said as a child I care little about.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.
Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?
more likely linked to the gibbification of BBC news.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
Or you could say that they've been slow timing releasing any of this since they got into office.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
Trump campaigned on full and immediate release. He'd have known how far he was exposed. Even after election the White House machine moved for express release – Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Epstein file was on her desk to be released in a week. Then something changed – or something was discovered – and they were pulled at the last minute.
There is something there, but it's almost certainly not Trump himself or he would not have marched his MAGA troops to the top of this particular hill in the first place (a subtle Duke of York reference worthy of PB's own TSE).
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Who are proportionately down more than Reform.
They may be the NKOTB. They ain’t hanging tough.
NKOTB?.....
Talking of Farages mob......... Do any of their supporters have an image for Reform? All political parties have an image. I can't think of one for Reform except being pro Trump anti immigrant and racist.....
Take away the rubber boats as you would in December and what's left?
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
I think the betting angle is the fighting against the release of information, the partial releases, the redactions and the bizarre faking of stuff in the releases.
All of these create a drip-drip effect that will carry on for quite a while.
There is no betting angle if we can't bet on it. Unless one of the likely contenders in the next presidential election is rumoured but not yet proved to be involved, there's no betting angle. Justice for the victims is nice to have but incidental to politics.
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Who are proportionately down more than Reform.
They may be the NKOTB. They ain’t hanging tough.
NKOTB?.....
Talking of Farages mob......... Do any of their supporters have an image for Reform? All political parties have an image. I can't think of one for Reform except being pro Trump anti immigrant and racist.....
Take away the rubber boats as you would in December and what's left?
Mr. Roger, you missed off weak (being polite) on Russia.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
What Farage said as a child I care little about.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
The two things are connected. More specifically what Farage now says about what he said as a teenager is connected to his support for Chris Parry.
Reform is a racist party led by a racist. The sooner the Reform adjacent, including the Conservative Party and much of our media, face up to to this uncomfortable truth the better.
On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.
Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?
more likely linked to the gibbification of BBC news.
They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
Who are proportionately down more than Reform.
They may be the NKOTB. They ain’t hanging tough.
NKOTB?.....
Talking of Farages mob......... Do any of their supporters have an image for Reform? All political parties have an image. I can't think of one for Reform except being pro Trump anti immigrant and racist.....
Take away the rubber boats as you would in December and what's left?
NKOTB was what the band New Kids on The Block were also called.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
Or you could say that they've been slow timing releasing any of this since they got into office.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
Trump campaigned on full and immediate release. He'd have known how far he was exposed. Even after election the White House machine moved for express release – Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Epstein file was on her desk to be released in a week. Then something changed – or something was discovered – and they were pulled at the last minute.
There is something there, but it's almost certainly not Trump himself or he would not have marched his MAGA troops to the top of this particular hill in the first place (a subtle Duke of York reference worthy of PB's own TSE).
Trump is a person who openly talked about shagging his own daughter. He could be guilty of all sorts wrt Epstein but have convinced himself that everything he did was fine and he had nothing to hide. Then someone manages to get through to him how it looks to other people. Suddenly it's all a hoax.
F1: while Undercutters is done (and just as well, given an exciting, but mild, medical malady has made talking moderately uncomfortable) I did want to revisit my many pre-season predictions there too. So I did:
There is no doubt Kemi has improved, her performances in the Commons are sharper, she gave a good Conference speech and had a popular announcement on scrapping Stamp Duty. However she still only has a net positive rating amongst 2024 Conservative voters.
Kemi therefore needs a strong local and devolved elections next year, ideally beating Labour for second on NEV, gaining Westminster and Barnet flagship councils from Labour and minimising Tory losses at Holyrood and in the Senedd. Otherwise she risks a VONC by Tory MPs. Jenrick from the populist right or Cleverly from the moderate centre of the Conservative party would then be her likely successor
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.
It seems to be a bit of strange posturing for the sake of it. It's not hard to kill a lobster, just make sure it's not Lord Mandelson.
Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I never order lobster because of this cruel practice. Not sure how you do a ban though.
Most British chefs put a knife through the brain to (allegedly) stop any suffering. I'd be more worried about industrially processed lobsters than those cooked to order in posh restaurants.
Yes. I'm not against them being killed and eaten, but I don't condone an intelligent creature being boiled alive. Since it's usually not possible to check, and it's awkward to ask, I just avoid altogether. Shame because it's delicious.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
Or you could say that they've been slow timing releasing any of this since they got into office.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
Trump campaigned on full and immediate release. He'd have known how far he was exposed. Even after election the White House machine moved for express release – Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Epstein file was on her desk to be released in a week. Then something changed – or something was discovered – and they were pulled at the last minute.
There is something there, but it's almost certainly not Trump himself or he would not have marched his MAGA troops to the top of this particular hill in the first place (a subtle Duke of York reference worthy of PB's own TSE).
Trump is a person who openly talked about shagging his own daughter. He could be guilty of all sorts wrt Epstein but have convinced himself that everything he did was fine and he had nothing to hide. Then someone manages to get through to him how it looks to other people. Suddenly it's all a hoax.
The zeitgeist shift theory. It's possible and I've explored it in the past on pb iirc, but it does not really explain the timing and in any case, Trump had just been elected for the second time despite his past.
There is no doubt Kemi has improved, her performances in the Commons are sharper, she gave a good Conference speech and had a popular announcement on scrapping Stamp Duty. However she still only has a net positive rating amongst 2024 Conservative voters.
Kemi therefore needs a strong local and devolved elections next year, ideally beating Labour for second on NEV, gaining Westminster and Barnet flagship councils from Labour and minimising Tory losses at Holyrood and in the Senedd. Otherwise she risks a VONC by Tory MPs. Jenrick from the populist right or Cleverly from the moderate centre of the Conservative party would then be her likely successor
Wales is gone. It's a Reform vs. Plaid battle - too important a struggle to waste votes on bit part players. If she pushes Labour into fourth there (unlikely but possible) that will be good enough.
Trump death spiral new angle ! I see that Trump's tariff are threatening the frozen French Fry supply for fast food purveyors.
Canada exports just under $3 billion pa (85+% of their exports of said product) of frozen French Fries to the USA, which is the vast majority of the (85%+) supply, which supply chain Trump has destabilised by his tariffs. The only significant alternative is from Europe.
Health prospects for Cody and Marie Lou have an uptick for a few years' time.
This may have been on radars for some time, just not my radar.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
Wonder if he'll cut cooperation with us for Trident if he becomes President.
It is supposedly independent but if not we might have to take up France's offer to come under their nuclear umbrella. Though unless the Trump and Vance administration increases its approval rating significantly a Democrat President is likely in 2028
Also, since when did Trump care about anyone else (besides Putin?) Trump wouldn't go to all that effort on the Epstein Files to defend anyone else. Who is that important to him, who would he care about so much that he'd incur a cost to himself to defend them?
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over
It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay
Reform are on track under FPTP for an overall majority on less than one third of the vote.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.
It seems to be a bit of strange posturing for the sake of it. It's not hard to kill a lobster, just make sure it's not Lord Mandelson.
Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.
IIRC Keith Floyd recommended putting a big knife through its "brain" before cooking. And that was a long time ago
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mph default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quickly enough, followed by the reverse ferret. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
(My call is that the Tories will move towards "allowing local authorities to broaden a change back to 30mph on a case by case basis", rather than impose a blanket chance as politically they will need to accommodate both views.)
Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.
Word missing there?
On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.
No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.
Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
Fair enough on the first point.
Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
All bizarre to me, only race I knew 50 years ago was horse racing and athletics.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.
It seems to be a bit of strange posturing for the sake of it. It's not hard to kill a lobster, just make sure it's not Lord Mandelson.
Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.
IIRC Keith Floyd recommended putting a big knife through its "brain" before cooking. And that was a long time ago
IT was. In the 1980s. In Floyd on Britain and Ireland. (I'm mildly surprised this is even controversial, so long as one knows how to handle the knife.)
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.
Word missing there?
On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.
No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.
Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
Fair enough on the first point.
Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
28 witnesses, including Jewish students, and written communications amongst teachers, is quite a lot to dismiss as "lies, all lies". Tice is that crass imo; Farage is not.
It's also quite awkward with respect to Farage's position on Israel, and the portrayal of Muslims as The Mortal Enemy of Western Civilisation.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
Wonder if he'll cut cooperation with us for Trident if he becomes President.
I'm sure he'd want to, but the retaliation would be significant. The US and UK nuclear sub programs are fairly closely intertwined, to the point where UK shipyards will be building parts of upcoming US Virginia class SSNs. And the UK's Dreadnought class and US Columbia class SSBNs share co-designed components.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
Wonder if he'll cut cooperation with us for Trident if he becomes President.
It is supposedly independent but if not we might have to take up France's offer to come under their nuclear umbrella. Though unless the Trump and Vance administration increases its approval rating significantly a Democrat President is likely in 2028
Yes but 28 is ages away. And Trumptime is longer than clocktime because of the sheer amount of stupid malevolent shit he can cram into any given period. It's a very high powered operation in this respect.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
What Farage said as a child I care little about.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
The two things are connected. More specifically what Farage now says about what he said as a teenager is connected to his support for Chris Parry.
Reform is a racist party led by a racist. The sooner the Reform adjacent, including the Conservative Party and much of our media, face up to to this uncomfortable truth the better.
You could say the same about the other parties. Kemi Badenoch talks about having ethnic enemies. Anas Sarwar uses white as a swear word. Ed Davey wants preferential treatment for Europeans.
Trump death spiral new angle ! I see that Trump's tariff are threatening the frozen French Fry supply for fast food purveyors.
Canada exports just under $3 billion pa (85+% of their exports of said product) of frozen French Fries to the USA, which is the vast majority of the (85%+) supply, which supply chain Trump has destabilised by his tariffs. The only significant alternative is from Europe.
Health prospects for Cody and Marie Lou have an uptick for a few years' time.
This may have been on radars for some time, just not my radar.
Those Kentucky rednecks distilling Bourbon are not having a happy Christmas either.
I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.
I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.
It seems to be a bit of strange posturing for the sake of it. It's not hard to kill a lobster, just make sure it's not Lord Mandelson.
Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.
IIRC Keith Floyd recommended putting a big knife through its "brain" before cooking. And that was a long time ago
IT was. In the 1980s. In Floyd on Britain and Ireland. (I'm mildly surprised this is even controversial, so long as one knows how to handle the knife.)
I did a fish cookery day maybe 3 years ago, and that is what we were taught.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour
Yes. I'm thinking of the difference between a Plaid 30%, Reform 28% result, or one where it is Plaid 30%, Reform 22%.
The latter is much more clearly a Plaid victory, whereas the former is close to even, and so more likely to be folded into a story of Reform winning across all the elections.
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
Wonder if he'll cut cooperation with us for Trident if he becomes President.
I'm sure he'd want to, but the retaliation would be significant. The US and UK nuclear sub programs are fairly closely intertwined, to the point where UK shipyards will be building parts of upcoming US Virginia class SSNs. And the UK's Dreadnought class and US Columbia class SSBNs share co-designed components.
A tit-for-tat there would be a real mess.
I doubt JDV gives a shit about Rosyth. He'd just say he's bringing the work back to the US.
It's all irrelevant anyway because whoever is UK PM is at the time will just do whatever JDV tells them.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.
Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’
The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
What Farage said as a child I care little about.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
The two things are connected. More specifically what Farage now says about what he said as a teenager is connected to his support for Chris Parry.
Reform is a racist party led by a racist. The sooner the Reform adjacent, including the Conservative Party and much of our media, face up to to this uncomfortable truth the better.
I don't think there is anyone who doesn't know that. It hardly needs to be said. His schoolboy antics weren't revelatory but they did give his antics a name particularly the excellent testimony of his school chums. He doesn't like 'others'. At least it's given the BBC a reason not to treat him as the de facto PM
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
What Farage said as a child I care little about.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
The two things are connected. More specifically what Farage now says about what he said as a teenager is connected to his support for Chris Parry.
Reform is a racist party led by a racist. The sooner the Reform adjacent, including the Conservative Party and much of our media, face up to to this uncomfortable truth the better.
You could say the same about the other parties. Kemi Badenoch talks about having ethnic enemies. Anas Sarwar uses white as a swear word. Ed Davey wants preferential treatment for Europeans.
Trump death spiral new angle ! I see that Trump's tariff are threatening the frozen French Fry supply for fast food purveyors.
Canada exports just under $3 billion pa (85+% of their exports of said product) of frozen French Fries to the USA, which is the vast majority of the (85%+) supply, which supply chain Trump has destabilised by his tariffs. The only significant alternative is from Europe.
Health prospects for Cody and Marie Lou have an uptick for a few years' time.
This may have been on radars for some time, just not my radar.
Those Kentucky rednecks distilling Bourbon are not having a happy Christmas either.
Yes - the response is the wider "network around the USA" tendency, which will be everywhere.
I listened to a vid this morning on DW about Germany's promotion of EU trade deals with India.
As I see it, the big problem for a once-again-partly-sane USA (if it happens) when Trump is dead / in prison / defenestrated is that it will be a ratchet; if Canada puts 10-15% of their potato exports to Japan / South Korea / China then it will be on long-term renewable deals.
While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.
Good morning, everyone.
Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.
Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.
My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
The Tories have gone into coalition with Labour and the Lib Dems, so they are indiscriminately pro-left.
Political theory question. Can you use the terms left/right when the Overton window shifts about. Or are the terms time limited to a particular parliament?
The terms 'left' and 'right' have multiple and protean meanings depending on context. Generally they conceal more than they reveal. Most centrists, both left and right agree with each other much more than they do with their own outer edges and extremes. This renders all UK politics odd.
Given that all centrists are social democrats, and even the extremes mostly have to bow to elements of social democracy, perhaps the best distinction between left and right lie in two places:
Firstly in party placement: currently Reform and Tory as described as 'right'; Lab, LD, YP, Green, PC and SNP are described as left.
Secondly in sentiment and emphasis: the left emphasise stuff like benefits culture and accept capitalism while not liking it much; the right like capitalism and accept benefits culture while not liking it much.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour
Plaid doing any deal with labour will be toxic if the polls are correct
As I have said previously I instinctively believe Plaid are gaining and Reform dropping back
While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.
Good morning, everyone.
Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.
Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.
My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).
I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
My comment remains true.
It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
Clegg was right, the LDs are not supposed to be the leftwing conscience of the Labour party, that is the Greens. Indeed until Charles Kennedy traditionally the Liberals were right of Labour economically
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
The new National Security strategy published recently can be seen as US and Russia forming plans to gang up on Europe. We need to achieve military independence from both...which will be difficult.
There is no doubt Kemi has improved, her performances in the Commons are sharper, she gave a good Conference speech and had a popular announcement on scrapping Stamp Duty. However she still only has a net positive rating amongst 2024 Conservative voters.
Kemi therefore needs a strong local and devolved elections next year, ideally beating Labour for second on NEV, gaining Westminster and Barnet flagship councils from Labour and minimising Tory losses at Holyrood and in the Senedd. Otherwise she risks a VONC by Tory MPs. Jenrick from the populist right or Cleverly from the moderate centre of the Conservative party would then be her likely successor
You keep repeating this when the reality is Badenoch is the best choice for leader as none of the others would improve the conservatives chances
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour
Plaid doing any deal with labour will be toxic if the polls are correct
As I have said previously I instinctively believe Plaid are gaining and Reform dropping back
Plaid should govern as a minority government
No wonder HYUFD is trying to dial down the possibility. It'd be something seeing a pro-indy party voted for by him gain a majority.
Anyway, off to the local pond to see if the visiting and remarkably confiding water rail is still chez nous.
Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’
The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.
I think what's worked is to give the impression that lots of streets are being reverted to 30mph by local councils. That isn't actually happening up any significant degree, but it's given the Facebook warriors a win and enough time to for the data to come through, particularly on insurance premiums.
We had something similar here - a cycle path was removed by the council to great celebration. They haven't actually finished the work though so the road remains closed to vehicles 6 months later - not a peep online and it's inadvertently become the best bit of active travel infrastructure in the city.
They are really pushing the big hitters , ignoring all that dross like "smash the gangs", illegal immigration , cost of living , high taxes, etc
They are in government. Just not in power.
They have what power there is. Maybe the realisation that government is actually powerless to affect many of the serious issues today leads to a sort of governmental twiddling of thumbs.
Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’
The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’
Detectives in the police force would be earning at least as much as train drivers if not more.
More police officers are likely to be graduates than train drivers too, though being a train driver is a skilled and important job
Police never used to be a graduate job. Remember what made Inspector Morse noteworthy was that he had been to university. This probably is why there were a lot of attacks during the Blair years – all those lucrative top jobs wasted on people who can't even spell Oxbridge.
They are really pushing the big hitters , ignoring all that dross like "smash the gangs", illegal immigration , cost of living , high taxes, etc
They are in government. Just not in power.
They have what power there is. Maybe the realisation that government is actually powerless to affect many of the serious issues today leads to a sort of governmental twiddling of thumbs.
I think it's more that rich world democratic governments seem terrified to use the powers they have, in a way that would have puzzled earlier generations of politicians.
We elect people who then complain that they can't do anything, and who focus on displacement activities like trans, and trail hunting. They could of course do a lot, if they were prepared to take a risk of losing votes.
This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
Does there need to be a betting angle ?
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
Why 'most unlikely' ? Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
Whatever caused the sudden change of heart on releasing the Epstein files is ‘most unlikely’ to involve Trump himself because he'd have been the first person the checkers would have looked for when they cleared it for release, and let's not forget that Trump himself would have a good idea of how far Trump himself was involved.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
Or you could say that they've been slow timing releasing any of this since they got into office.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
Trump campaigned on full and immediate release. He'd have known how far he was exposed. Even after election the White House machine moved for express release – Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Epstein file was on her desk to be released in a week. Then something changed – or something was discovered – and they were pulled at the last minute.
There is something there, but it's almost certainly not Trump himself or he would not have marched his MAGA troops to the top of this particular hill in the first place (a subtle Duke of York reference worthy of PB's own TSE).
You're assuming a level of rationality to Trump and his acolytes that is not necessarily appropriate. Trump campaigned on many things and then ignored what he'd said in office. He's often said one thing and then not done it, with examples including his mythical healthcare plan, "lock her up" and getting Mexico to pay for the wall. He's gotten away with this before, so I think he just presumed he could rile people up by talking about the Epstein files and then get away with not actually doing anything substantive with them. So, no, I don't think they discovered something at the last minute: he was just playing with fire and has now been burnt.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.
I think what's worked is to give the impression that lots of streets are being reverted to 30mph by local councils. That isn't actually happening up any significant degree, but it's given the Facebook warriors a win and enough time to for the data to come through, particularly on insurance premiums.
We had something similar here - a cycle path was removed by the council to great celebration. They haven't actually finished the work though so the road remains closed to vehicles 6 months later - not a peep online and it's inadvertently become the best bit of active travel infrastructure in the city.
Yes, I think the blanket imposition of limits across the board is a mistake and bad PR. The reality is that 30mph is quite ok in some spots but in others even 20mph is too high. It's best to allow some flexibility locally and with luck you may get the best of both worlds.
Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’
The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’
Detectives in the police force would be earning at least as much as train drivers if not more.
More police officers are likely to be graduates than train drivers too, though being a train driver is a skilled and important job
Police never used to be a graduate job. Remember what made Inspector Morse noteworthy was that he had been to university. This probably is why there were a lot of attacks during the Blair years – all those lucrative top jobs wasted on people who can't even spell Oxbridge.
I joined Edinburgh City Police in 1965 directly after taking an exam at their HQ
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour
Plaid doing any deal with labour will be toxic if the polls are correct
As I have said previously I instinctively believe Plaid are gaining and Reform dropping back
Plaid should govern as a minority government
Have the main parties been written off too soon? Interesting that your username invokes North Wales. I wonder if Plaid's cultural bias might be a drawback in Cardiff and the valleys where the Welsh language is written on road signs but not used in shops. And can the Conservatives make a comeback in farming country in the north?
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.
I am a convert to the 20, after being opposed to it in the start. The roads in towns are so much safer. You can also pull out easily from side roads.
Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.
YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough. - Ref UK committed to reverse. - Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.) -
I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.
I think what's worked is to give the impression that lots of streets are being reverted to 30mph by local councils. That isn't actually happening up any significant degree, but it's given the Facebook warriors a win and enough time to for the data to come through, particularly on insurance premiums.
We had something similar here - a cycle path was removed by the council to great celebration. They haven't actually finished the work though so the road remains closed to vehicles 6 months later - not a peep online and it's inadvertently become the best bit of active travel infrastructure in the city.
Yes, I think the blanket imposition of limits across the board is a mistake and bad PR. The reality is that 30mph is quite ok in some spots but in others even 20mph is too high. It's best to allow some flexibility locally and with luck you may get the best of both worlds.
Well, that's exactly what they had in the first place before the witch hunt started. Local councils could apply exceptions - it was "default", not "blanket".
The sleight of hand was just to continue that policy but pretend it was a new one. That's why some councils have made no further exceptions at all - they'd already done so.
Comments
"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."
JD Vance to me.
https://x.com/SohrabAhmari/status/2003111828336107672
See Candace Owens for more details. Or don’t, if you prefer not to listen to crazy.
Good morning, everybody. How are turkeys slaughtered?
We've yet to see Reform fight a proper GE campaign - will they work 500 seats, 400? Do they have the ground organisation or are we suggesting they'll come through the middle in hundreds of seats between a collapsing Labour vote and a slowly recovering Tory vote?
FPTP is a pernicious and capricious mistress - never forget that.
My best guess is that whoever was unearthed in the last few days before the scheduled release was highly significant (else just redact the name) and if the eventual unmasking of Watergate's Deep Throat is any guide, likely someone we've never heard of this side of the pond.
All of these create a drip-drip effect that will carry on for quite a while.
As for @MelonB 's question, it's always puzzled me too though I never put it quite so well myself as it is set out here.
Although there is of course the question of degree of mental consciousness.
Perhaps one might think in terms also of whether the organisms in question had been specially cultivated or were caught wild. In the latter case the small stuff would end up being eaten anyway, especially the juveniles, with only a little chance of survival (vide Malthus and C. Darwin). So whitebait is OK. And ethically it's probably better to eat North Atlantic sea prawns (for us in the UK anyway) than import farmed tiger prawns from the Far East, for instance). (It's certainly cheaper and much less damaging to the environment too, as prawns are almost a weed species.)
In October 2023, Kirk said on The Charlie Kirk Show that "Jewish donors have been the Number 1 funding mechanism of radical, open border, neoliberal, quasi‑Marxist policies ... This is a beast created by secular Jews, and now it's coming for Jews", and also suggested that these Jews control "not just the colleges; it's the nonprofits, it's the movies, it's Hollywood, it's all of it". Soon after, he said that "Jews have been some of the largest funders of cultural Marxist ideas and supporters of those ideas over the last 30 or 40 years."
Some people might think that a little bit anti-Semitic, Sandpit.
I also think Polanski gets a free pass for his rather interesting past.
I don't think there's any great volte face. They've just been coming out with contradictory bullshit for months.
They may be the NKOTB. They ain’t hanging tough.
Standing by Chris Parry is a major error. I cannot see any other main party doing it.
There is something there, but it's almost certainly not Trump himself or he would not have marched his MAGA troops to the top of this particular hill in the first place (a subtle Duke of York reference worthy of PB's own TSE).
Talking of Farages mob......... Do any of their supporters have an image for Reform? All political parties have an image. I can't think of one for Reform except being pro Trump anti immigrant and racist.....
Take away the rubber boats as you would in December and what's left?
Reform is a racist party led by a racist. The sooner the Reform adjacent, including the Conservative Party and much of our media, face up to to this uncomfortable truth the better.
https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/12/undercutters-episode-38-predictions.html
Kemi therefore needs a strong local and devolved elections next year, ideally beating Labour for second on NEV, gaining Westminster and Barnet flagship councils from Labour and minimising Tory losses at Holyrood and in the Senedd. Otherwise she risks a VONC by Tory MPs. Jenrick from the populist right or Cleverly from the moderate centre of the Conservative party would then be her likely successor
Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.
Canada exports just under $3 billion pa (85+% of their exports of said product) of frozen French Fries to the USA, which is the vast majority of the (85%+) supply, which supply chain Trump has destabilised by his tariffs. The only significant alternative is from Europe.
Health prospects for Cody and Marie Lou have an uptick for a few years' time.
This may have been on radars for some time, just not my radar.
- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quickly enough, followed by the reverse ferret.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.
One to watch.
(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
(My call is that the Tories will move towards "allowing local authorities to broaden a change back to 30mph on a case by case basis", rather than impose a blanket chance as politically they will need to accommodate both views.)
What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.
It's also quite awkward with respect to Farage's position on Israel, and the portrayal of Muslims as The Mortal Enemy of Western Civilisation.
A tit-for-tat there would be a real mess.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5gv5z24n2o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvSUalzJvcU
Or put it in the freezer for 10 minutes, which is the humane reverse of the boiling frog technique, and numbs the lobster.
The latter is much more clearly a Plaid victory, whereas the former is close to even, and so more likely to be folded into a story of Reform winning across all the elections.
It's all irrelevant anyway because whoever is UK PM is at the time will just do whatever JDV tells them.
More police officers are likely to be graduates than train drivers too, though being a train driver is a skilled and important job
I listened to a vid this morning on DW about Germany's promotion of EU trade deals with India.
As I see it, the big problem for a once-again-partly-sane USA (if it happens) when Trump is dead / in prison / defenestrated is that it will be a ratchet; if Canada puts 10-15% of their potato exports to Japan / South Korea / China then it will be on long-term renewable deals.
You couldn’t make it up
Fuck Hunter. POS.
https://x.com/wrestleops/status/2003159373498224658?s=61
The terms 'left' and 'right' have multiple and protean meanings depending on context. Generally they conceal more than they reveal. Most centrists, both left and right agree with each other much more than they do with their own outer edges and extremes. This renders all UK politics odd.
Given that all centrists are social democrats, and even the extremes mostly have to bow to elements of social democracy, perhaps the best distinction between left and right lie in two places:
Firstly in party placement: currently Reform and Tory as described as 'right'; Lab, LD, YP, Green, PC and SNP are described as left.
Secondly in sentiment and emphasis: the left emphasise stuff like benefits culture and accept capitalism while not liking it much; the right like capitalism and accept benefits culture while not liking it much.
As I have said previously I instinctively believe Plaid are gaining and Reform dropping back
Plaid should govern as a minority government
Anyway, off to the local pond to see if the visiting and remarkably confiding water rail is still chez nous.
This feels like exceptional political ineptness with zero return.
We had something similar here - a cycle path was removed by the council to great celebration. They haven't actually finished the work though so the road remains closed to vehicles 6 months later - not a peep online and it's inadvertently become the best bit of active travel infrastructure in the city.
Labour are down 215, Conservative down 165, Lib Dems up 21, Greens up 33, Reform up 138. That's the bleeding that the big two have to staunch.
We elect people who then complain that they can't do anything, and who focus on displacement activities like trans, and trail hunting. They could of course do a lot, if they were prepared to take a risk of losing votes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o
Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.
The sleight of hand was just to continue that policy but pretend it was a new one. That's why some councils have made no further exceptions at all - they'd already done so.