A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Every passing day confirms that Kamala Harris would have been a better president than Donald Trump but that doesn’t mean she should try and run in 2028. In many ways she was a poor candidate which I expect will be exposed in the primaries in 2028.
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And Kamala: No, just don't.
I promise not to use 'lawyerly brilliance' again.
The office cat would have been a better President, but Kamala will do if that's all the Dems can come up with.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DULMCjYgE90
Bach Before 7, for instance, is a great way of avoiding the pre-7am BBC program trailers.
Saw a vid yesterday covering some jargon shifts ahead of 2026.
No more Dutch grands prix, so no home advantage for the Dutch shunt.
https://bsky.app/profile/ajaxsinger.bsky.social/post/3ma4hc6vbns2b
https://bsky.app/profile/theatlantic.com/post/3m7vtljw3ro2g
It all looks a bit Enron/Sub-prime to me.
Moderate to good.
BoE certain to cut rates to 3.75% tomorrow and we're likely to see further cuts next year.
Irving Berlin
There may be trouble ahead..
George Orwell
Wind force 13, blowing into a human face - forever.
The electorate will punish the Democrats if they put up Kamala again - "we told you no the first time and we meant it" - could be expected to be the tenor of the response.
I wouldn't expect Kamala to get very far in the Democratic Primary though. She ran a weak campaign for the nomination for 2020. Someone close to her needs to make an intervention almost as much as someone close to Truss needs to step in there.
If she wanted to be active in US politics there are several other ways she could contribute.
As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.
I intend to adopt it
That's why I regret to Britain gaining scale, as being larger makes it easier to act unilaterally. An Anglo-Canadian Union would find it easier to act unilaterally than Britain does alone.
What do you think?
We left the world's largest and most successful free trade association to protect that. We going to give it up now to row in with Canada?
And, in my view, one of the defects of the European Union is that it's not a proper Union which can act as one, but a looser confederation that finds itself paralysed at moments of crisis.
I think that repeatedly inspiring people with uplifting but vacuous drivel about "change" then letting them down, rather than telling them uncomfortable truths and being realistic about what can be delivered, is actually bad for democracy, and one of the reasons why it is discredited in many countries. It only works in the short term - it got Obama and Clinton elected, but their agendas both stalled quickly in Congress, and then they suffered devastating setbacks in the midterms - we forget today just how remarkable the 1994 and 2010 elections were - especially 1994.
I agree the Democrat field isn't exactly bursting with inspiring and charismatic leaders.
The government's borrowing costs for 10-year and longer lending is driven in part by the amount of borrowing they need to do, rather than expectations that the BoE will need to hike rates again. That's no business of the BoE. The 10-year swap rate is around 4.0% so not dissimilar to short-term rates.
On the monetary side, we can see 1) falling headline and core inflation, 2) rising unemployment, 3) weak economy, 4) Trump tariffs which should be disinflationary here at the margins for imports from third countries. And unlike last year, the budget was a nothing event for future inflation.
My guess is we see base rates down at 3% by the end of next year.
I like him, but a centrist Brit liking someone doesn’t necessarily bode well for US presidential ambitions.
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
The two favourites are Newsom and AOC, and I don’t see how either of them get there. Middle America isn’t voting for a very coastal liberal.
Gretchen Whitmer at 50/1 could be a good outsider, and they’ll want to keep at least one woman in the race for as long as possible. Josh Shapiro is probably underpriced at 20/1, as is Andy Beshear at 33/1.
He can then explain what he achieved himself as transport secretary for four years.
And like others, I enjoy listening to it late at night, in bed - a moment to reflect on your fortunes at being 30 miles inland and not in colossal seas in South East Iceland.
She should have been to a different Biden subsidised new factory every day.
Instead she left an open goal for Trump to say that Biden's strategy had failed.
The bits I don't are that it is not just the quantity of borrowing required but the gradually increasing risk premium attached to UK gilts given our inability to bring borrowing under control and to get spending in line with income. The longer we allow that to continue the higher that premium is going to get and this budget was a step in the wrong direction. The increase in the NMW announced at the budget will also have secondary inflation effects.
I think that this is a problem for nearly all western countries, not just the UK. I think that those with surpluses to invest are going to become increasingly nervous about our ability to service and repay the debts we are incurring. The temptation to resort to unconventional means, such as QE, will be strong as will be the temptation to have a burst of inflation to reduce the debt burden. Western bonds are going to become increasingly hard to sell.
But if Buttigieg is nominated he'll be asked them.
Because what else would be on Buttigieg's record.
None of that is in the slightest bit relevant to Democratic primaries in three years time.
Assuming the US still has a democracy (not 100% guaranteed), the record of the current administration will be uppermost in voters minds, and whoever has the best shot at uniting the Democrats is likely to get the nomination.
I doubt that will be Harris, and on current form, it might just be Newsom. He's not exactly adored by the Democratic base, but he's getting traction for leading the opposition to Trump. Quite what he does after leaving the governor's office at the end of 2026 is an interesting question.
It doesn’t change the fact she lost and that she was a poor candidate.
She has aged superbly.
And also thanks for reminding us of Hunter Biden, that great polymath whose PB defenders started with "Hunter Biden has done nothing wrong and is being politically persecuted" and ended at "Joe Biden will never give a presidential pardon to his son".
What seems odd to me is that a candidate from the left has to be both moderate and personally perfect in every way to stand a chance of winning, yet a candidate from the right can be any raving lunatic with no principles whatsoever and that's perfectly fine. And I say that as a centrist with no axe to grind for either side.
It was already obvious that he was too old.
But that didn't matter as over 45% would vote Dem under any circumstance and there were enough swing voters who wanted a change in government.
The reverse happened in 2024.
And likely will reverse again in 2028.
And then reverse again in 2032.
Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.
It's the economy stupid can explain an awful lot of election results..
Harris remember only got the nomination as she was VP, she won no primaries in 2020
What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.
The answer is, of course, that in 99% of online sources it was either a triumph or a catastrophe. It’s living proof of the entirely broken US media landscape.
The best and most balanced non-paywalled analysis I’ve found comes from a UK source: the Indy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/pete-buttigieg-ohio-train-derailment-transport-secretary-b2293616.html
Guyana has made the same errors decades later agreeing inequitable terms with Exxon.
Remember when you're filling out your online ethics and compliance training for US oil companies, You "being taken to the football with complimentary pint and pie" is bribery, senior management transferring millions to a politician is a "facilitating payment required to conduct business", particularly if a substantial proportion is routed back.